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The Impact of Lowering the Payroll Tax on Informality in Colombia 降低工资税对哥伦比亚非正规行为的影响
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.31389/eco.53
Cristina Fernández, Leonardo Villar
In 2012, the Colombian Government reduced employer payroll contributions from 29.5 to 16.0 percent. Two years later, the informality rate had diminished by about 4.0 percentage points. This paper attempts to estimate how much of this reduction was due to the tax reform, isolating the impact of other macroeconomic variables. A natural approach to performing this task is to apply a difference-in-differences methodology using a household survey panel. Since the Colombian survey does not have a panel structure, we simulated one using a matching difference-in-differences methodology. According to the results, the tax reform is associated with a 4.8-percentage-point decrease in the informality of workers affected by the reform in the thirteen main metropolitan areas. This represents approximately half the reduction of the relevant informality rate during that period, affecting mostly salaried men and workers in general with low levels of education.
2012年,哥伦比亚政府将雇主工资缴款从29.5%降至16.0%。两年后,非正式就业率下降了约4.0个百分点。本文试图估计这种减少有多少是由于税制改革,孤立其他宏观经济变量的影响。执行这项任务的自然方法是使用家庭调查小组应用差异中的差异方法。由于哥伦比亚的调查没有面板结构,我们使用匹配的差异中差异方法模拟了一个。结果显示,在13个主要都市圈,税收改革与受改革影响的工人非正式性下降4.8个百分点有关。这大约是该期间有关非正规率减少的一半,影响的主要是受薪男子和一般受教育程度低的工人。
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引用次数: 41
Tecnologías de la información y comunicación y crecimiento económico 信息和通信技术与经济增长
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.07.002
Héctor Eduardo Díaz Rodríguez

The study of the impact of technical change on economic growth, was formally incorporated into a model by Solow (1957). However, is not until 15 years ago, that the adoption of ict has been reflected in a significant increase in the number of studies that try to understand, analyze and explain their impact on economic growth. Most of them find a direct link between the use of ict and productivity.

This paper present a critical review of the way in which, the economy has analyzed that relationship, and proposes the need to demystify some of the mechanisms of a forced causal relationship between ict and economic growth. Also analyze whether the neoclassical model is useful to understand the impact of ict on productivity growth, or, on the contrary, is necessary to rethink some approaches on that direction.

技术变革对经济增长影响的研究,由索洛(1957)正式纳入模型。然而,直到15年前,试图理解、分析和解释信息和通信技术对经济增长影响的研究数量显著增加,这才反映了信息和通信技术的采用。其中大多数发现信息和通信技术的使用与生产力之间存在直接联系。本文对经济分析这种关系的方式进行了批判性回顾,并提出有必要揭开信息通信技术与经济增长之间强制因果关系的一些机制的神秘面纱。还要分析新古典模型是否有助于理解信息通信技术对生产率增长的影响,或者相反,是否有必要重新考虑该方向的一些方法。
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引用次数: 12
¿Por qué las tasas de interés son tan bajas?+ 为什么利率这么低?+
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.07.003
Jamel Kevin Sandoval Hernández González , Samy Yandamy Morales Guillén

The low interest rates are a global anomaly that was patented after the outbreak of the so-called “Great Recession”. However, a little more than eight years away from the epiphenomenon of the low cost of capital, this trend does not appear to have changed significantly (despite recent attempts by the United States to reverse this cycle), which means working under new conditions of operation and design of economic policies for the future. The present paper seeks to develop the different explanatory hypotheses that infer the low interest rates both in current dates and in the years to come. Within the main ideas is given particular importance to the hypothesis of secular stagnation, understood as a permanent gap between the neutral interest rate of the economy with the interest rate used by central banks. In the conclusions, some possible lines of research are cited, same that are derived from explaining the low interest rates from the perspective of secular stagnation.

低利率是一种全球反常现象,在所谓的“大衰退”爆发后获得专利。然而,在八年多一点的时间里,这一趋势似乎没有发生重大变化(尽管美国最近试图扭转这一周期),这意味着在新的操作条件下工作,并为未来设计经济政策。本文试图发展不同的解释假设,以推断当前日期和未来几年的低利率。在主要思想中,对长期停滞的假设给予了特别的重视,长期停滞被理解为经济中性利率与中央银行使用的利率之间的永久差距。在结论中,引用了一些可能的研究线索,这些研究线索来自于从长期停滞的角度解释低利率。
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引用次数: 1
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.07.006
Iliana Marcela Quintanar Zárate
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引用次数: 0
Las bases fundamentales de la Unión Europea en la era Trump 特朗普时代欧盟的基本基础
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.07.004
Vicente Guerrero Flores, Santiaga Anima Puentes
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引用次数: 0
El sistema tributario posrevolucionario y el juicio de amparo en materia fiscal, 1917-1935 革命后的税收制度与财政事务中的宪法权利保护令审判,1917-1935
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.07.005
Carlos de Jesús Becerril Hernández

On February 5, 1917, the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States was promulgated, which would begin on May 1 of that year. In it, besides its multiplied social and central part, was contained a liberal part, direct inheritance of its predecessor of the nineteenth century. The postrevolutionary tax system and the amparo judgment in tax matters represent the most liberal part of the Mexican constitution. Various articles of the Constitution established the general principles that were to be followed by fiscal policy and, in the amparo trial, these principles found their practical application. In this way, various social sectors found in the amparo a form of institutionalized fiscal resistance, going to the federal courts in search of protection and protection of the justice of the Union to avoid paying the contributions they considered disproportionate and inequitable, or Either to combat the procedures to carry out their recovery.

1917年2月5日,《墨西哥合众国政治宪法》颁布,将于当年5月1日开始实施。在它里面,除了社会的和中心的部分,还有自由的部分,直接继承了十九世纪的前身。改革后的税收制度和对税收问题的宪法权利保护判决代表了墨西哥宪法中最自由的部分。《宪法》的各种条款确立了财政政策应遵循的一般原则,在宪法权利保护审判中,这些原则得到了实际应用。这样,各社会部门在《宪法权利保护令》中发现了一种制度化的财政阻力,它们到联邦法院寻求保护和保护联盟的正义,以避免支付它们认为不成比例和不公平的摊款,或者反对收回这些款项的程序。
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引用次数: 2
El mercado de harina de maíz en México. Una interpretación microeconómica 墨西哥玉米粉市场。微观经济解释
Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.07.001
Gustavo Vargas Sánchez

In this paper we analyze from the microeconomics perspective, the maize flour market and its price formation in Mexico.

This product is basic in the diet of Mexicans, and its market is characterized by being dominated by a duopoly: Gruma and Minsa. This characteristic requires that its analysis transcend the traditional theoretical framework of perfect microeconomics and must be studied from the theory of oligopoly, highlighting: its power to fix prices, relationships of interdependence and non-price competition.

This market is dominated by Gruma, which is a multinational Mexican corporation that operates as a leader, while Minsa acts as a follower. One of the strategies of barriers to entry is installed capacity, which surpasses the national demand. This implies that companies work with excess capacity.

These characteristics: pricing power, excess installed capacity and demand fluctuations are attempted to be systematized as a microeconomic system, explains the fluctuations of effective demand against a rigid potential supply in the short term, and its effects on employment and occupation of productive resources around the manufacture of corn flour.

本文从微观经济学的角度分析了墨西哥玉米粉市场及其价格形成。这种产品是墨西哥人的基本饮食,其市场的特点是由双寡头垄断:Gruma和Minsa。这一特点要求对其分析必须超越传统的完美微观经济学理论框架,必须从寡头垄断理论出发进行研究,突出:寡头垄断的定价能力、相互依存关系和非价格竞争。这个市场由格鲁玛公司主导,这是一家墨西哥跨国公司,作为领导者运作,而明萨则是追随者。进入壁垒的策略之一是装机容量超过国家需求。这意味着企业的产能过剩。这些特征:定定权、过剩装机容量和需求波动试图被系统化作为一个微观经济系统,解释了短期内有效需求对刚性潜在供给的波动,以及它对玉米粉制造周围生产资源的就业和占用的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Should a Central Bank Transfer Its Profits to the Treasury? 中央银行应该将其利润转移给财政部吗?
Pub Date : 2017-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.899380
Fernando Á Adriana Eduardo Lvarez-Parra, Adriana Arreaza, E. Zambrano
ABSTRACT:In this paper we show how two seemingly irrelevant accounting principles for central banks—namely, the choice of the unit of account for its balance sheet and the method of inventory valuation of foreign currency reserves—can overstate or understate profits transferred to the treasury and how this can threaten the ability of central banks to control inflation. We show the first point through Monte Carlo experiments calibrated for the Venezuelan economy and the second point in an infinitely lived representative agent model that illustrates the problem of the joint determination of the level of central bank assets and the size of profits transferred to the treasury when the objective of the central bank is to eliminate the possibility of hyperinflation.
摘要:在本文中,我们展示了两个看似无关的中央银行会计原则,即其资产负债表的记账单位选择和外汇储备的库存评估方法,如何夸大或低估转移到国库的利润,以及这如何威胁中央银行控制通货膨胀的能力。我们通过针对委内瑞拉经济校准的蒙特卡洛实验展示了第一点,并在一个无限活的代表性代理模型中展示了第二点,该模型说明了当中央银行的目标是消除恶性通货膨胀的可能性时,中央银行资产水平和转移到国库的利润规模的联合确定问题。
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引用次数: 2
Estimación del Stock de capital público en México a nivel estatal: 1990-2015 墨西哥州一级公共资本存量估计:1990-2015年
Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.012
Francisco Salvador Gutiérrez Cruz

In the present paper an exercise of estimation of the stock of public capital in Mexico was conducted. For this purpose, the OECD-recommended perpetual inventories model was used, adding the adjustment factor of Almon (1999), also described in Shiau et al. (2002) and Loría and de Jesús (2007). Public investment data at the state level for the period 1990 to 2015 by the Federative Entity (32) were used and a depreciation rate of 9.07%.

The result is a series of data consistent with economic fluctuations, as the trend of real investment follows. It also solves the estimation problem inherent in the perpetual inventory method.

本文对墨西哥的公共资本存量进行了估算。为此,我们使用了经合组织推荐的永续盘底模型,并加入了Almon(1999)的调整因子,Shiau等人(2002)以及Loría和de Jesús(2007)也对该模型进行了描述。使用联邦实体1990年至2015年期间州一级的公共投资数据(32),折旧率为9.07%。其结果是一系列与经济波动相一致的数据,因为实际投资的趋势紧随其后。同时也解决了永续盘存法固有的估计问题。
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引用次数: 1
Revisión del modelo de sustitución de importaciones: vigencia y algunas reconsideraciones 进口替代模式的回顾:有效性和一些重新考虑
Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.008
M. Laura Vazquez Maggio

The present international context - including the resurgence of isolationist and protectionist governments - binds us to reflect about the different forms of interrelationship, and its corresponding implications, between the various national economies: More or less openness? What kind of openness? Which economic sectors? What role does the State play for a nation's economic growth? The present text makes a historical review of the import substitution model that prevailed in Latin America for much of the 20th century, highlighting its successes and its deficiencies. The article reviews its precedent model, the primary export model that characterized much of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries while also addressing its necessary modification after the external shocks of the Great Depression and the outbreak of World War II. The theoretical contributions of Raúl Prebisch and other ECLAC thinkers are reviewed to address the rationale and characteristics of the import substitution model. The paper concludes with a reflection on the feasibility of rethinking this model in a context of slow economic growth of more than 30 years, highlighting the factors of today's world together with the return of ideologies of less openness to international trade.

当前的国际环境——包括孤立主义和保护主义政府的死而复生——迫使我们反思不同国家经济之间不同形式的相互关系及其相应的影响:开放程度更高还是更低?什么样的开放?哪些经济部门?国家在一个国家的经济发展中扮演什么角色?本文对20世纪大部分时间在拉丁美洲盛行的进口替代模式进行了历史回顾,突出了其成功和不足之处。本文回顾了其先例模型,这是19世纪和20世纪初的主要出口模型,同时也讨论了在大萧条和第二次世界大战爆发的外部冲击之后对其进行必要修改的问题。本文回顾了Raúl Prebisch和拉加经委会其他思想家的理论贡献,以阐述进口替代模型的基本原理和特点。文章最后反思了在30多年经济缓慢增长的背景下重新思考这一模式的可行性,强调了当今世界的因素以及对国际贸易不那么开放的意识形态的回归。
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引用次数: 10
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Economía Informa
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