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Untangling the relationship between power outage and population activity recovery in disasters 理清灾害中停电与人口活动恢复之间的关系
Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.06.003
Chia-Wei Hsu, Ali Mostafavi

Despite recognition of the relationship between infrastructure resilience and community recovery, very limited empirical evidence exists regarding the extent to which the disruptions in and restoration of infrastructure services contribute to the speed of community recovery. To address this gap, this study investigates the relationship between community and infrastructure systems in the context of hurricane impacts, focusing on the recovery dynamics of population activity and power infrastructure restoration. Empirical observational data were utilized to analyze the extent of impact, recovery duration, and recovery types of both systems in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida. The study reveals three key findings. First, power outage duration positively correlates with outage extent until a certain impact threshold is reached. Beyond this threshold, restoration time remains relatively stable regardless of outage magnitude. This finding underscores the need to strengthen power infrastructure, particularly in extreme weather conditions, to minimize outage restoration time. Second, power was fully restored in 70% of affected areas before population activity levels normalized. This finding suggests the role infrastructure functionality plays in post-disaster community recovery. Quicker power restoration did not equate to rapid population activity recovery due to other possible factors such as transportation, housing damage, and business interruptions. Finally, if power outages last beyond two weeks, community activity resumes before complete power restoration, indicating adaptability in prolonged outage scenarios. This implies the capacity of communities to adapt to ongoing power outages and continue daily life activities. These findings offer valuable empirical insights into the interaction between human activities and infrastructure systems, such as power outages, during extreme weather events. They also enhance our empirical understanding of how infrastructure resilience influences community recovery. By identifying the critical thresholds for power outage functionality and duration that affect population activity recovery, this study furthers our understanding of how infrastructure performance intertwines with community functioning in extreme weather conditions. Hence, the findings can inform infrastructure operators, emergency managers, and public officials about the significance of resilient infrastructure in life activity recovery of communities when facing extreme weather hazards.

尽管人们认识到基础设施复原力与社区恢复之间的关系,但关于基础设施服务的中断和恢复在多大程度上促进了社区恢复速度的经验证据却非常有限。为了弥补这一不足,本研究调查了飓风影响下社区与基础设施系统之间的关系,重点关注人口活动和电力基础设施恢复的恢复动态。研究利用经验观察数据分析了伊达飓风后两个系统的影响程度、恢复持续时间和恢复类型。研究揭示了三个主要发现。首先,停电持续时间与停电范围呈正相关,直到达到一定的影响阈值。超过这个阈值后,无论停电程度如何,恢复时间都保持相对稳定。这一发现强调了加强电力基础设施的必要性,尤其是在极端天气条件下,以最大限度地缩短停电恢复时间。其次,在人口活动水平恢复正常之前,70% 的受灾地区已完全恢复供电。这一发现表明了基础设施功能在灾后社区恢复中的作用。由于其他可能的因素,如交通、房屋损坏和业务中断,较快的电力恢复并不等于人口活动的快速恢复。最后,如果停电时间超过两周,社区活动会在电力完全恢复之前恢复,这表明了在长期停电情况下的适应能力。这意味着社区有能力适应持续停电并继续开展日常生活活动。这些发现为极端天气事件期间人类活动与停电等基础设施系统之间的互动提供了宝贵的经验见解。它们还增强了我们对基础设施复原力如何影响社区恢复的经验性理解。通过确定影响人口活动恢复的停电功能和持续时间的关键阈值,本研究进一步加深了我们对极端天气条件下基础设施性能如何与社区功能相互交织的理解。因此,研究结果可以让基础设施运营商、应急管理人员和政府官员了解,在面临极端天气灾害时,弹性基础设施对社区生命活动恢复的重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Mixed reality head mounted displays for enhanced indoor point cloud segmentation with virtual seeds 混合现实头戴式显示器用于利用虚拟种子进行增强型室内点云分割
Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.06.005
Juan C. Navares-Vázquez, Pedro Arias, Lucía Díaz-Vilariño, Jesús Balado

Mixed Reality (MR) Head Mounted Displays (HMDs) offer a hitherto underutilized set of advantages compared to conventional 3D scanners. These benefits, inherent to MR-HMDs albeit not originally intended for such applications, encompass the freedom of hand movement, hand tracking capabilities, and real-time mesh visualization. This study leverages these attributes to enhance indoor scanning process. The primary innovation lies in the conceptualization of manual-positioned MR virtual seeds for the purpose of indoor point cloud segmentation via a region-growing approach. The proposed methodology is effectively implemented using the HoloLens 2 platform. An application is designed to enable the remote placement of virtual tags based on the user's visual focus on the MR-HMD display. This non-intrusive interface is further enriched with expedited tag saving and deletion functionalities, as well as augmented tag visualization through overlaying them on real-world objects. To assess the practicality of the proposed method, a comprehensive real-world case study spanning an area of 330 s2 is conducted. Remarkably, the survey demonstrates remarkable efficiency, with 20 virtual tags swiftly deployed, each requiring a mere 2 s for precise positioning. Subsequently, these virtual tags are employed as seeds in a region-growing algorithm for point cloud segmentation. The accuracy of virtual tag positioning is found to be exceptional, with an average error of 2.4 ± 1.8 cm. Importantly, the user experience is significantly enhanced, leading to improved seed positioning and, consequently, more accurate final segmentation results.

与传统 3D 扫描仪相比,混合现实(MR)头戴式显示器(HMD)具有一系列迄今尚未充分利用的优势。这些优势是磁共振头戴式显示器所固有的,尽管最初并不是为此类应用而设计的,但包括手部自由移动、手部跟踪能力和实时网格可视化。本研究利用这些特性来增强室内扫描过程。主要创新点在于手动定位磁共振虚拟种子的概念化,以便通过区域生长方法进行室内点云分割。所提出的方法可通过 HoloLens 2 平台有效实施。设计了一个应用程序,可根据用户在 MR-HMD 显示屏上的视觉焦点远程放置虚拟标签。这种非侵入式界面进一步丰富了标签的快速保存和删除功能,并通过将标签叠加到真实世界的物体上增强了标签的可视化。为了评估所建议方法的实用性,我们进行了一项全面的真实世界案例研究,研究面积达 330 平方米。值得注意的是,这项调查显示了显著的效率,20 个虚拟标签被迅速部署,每个标签只需要 2 秒钟就能精确定位。随后,这些虚拟标签被用作点云分割区域生长算法的种子。虚拟标签定位的精确度非常高,平均误差为 2.4 ± 1.8 厘米。重要的是,用户体验得到显著提升,种子定位得到改善,最终的分割结果也更加精确。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling infrastructure interdependencies and cascading effects using temporal networks 利用时空网络模拟基础设施的相互依存关系和连带效应
Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.05.002
Gian Paolo Cimellaro , Alessandro Cardoni , Andrei Reinhorn

Lifelines are critical infrastructure systems characterized by a high level of interdependency that can lead to cascading failures after any disaster. Many approaches can be used to analyze infrastructural interdependencies, but they are usually not able to describe the sequence of events during emergencies. Therefore, interdependencies need to be modeled also taking into account the time effects. The methodology proposed in this paper is based on a modified version of the Input-output Inoperability Model and returns the probabilities of failure for each node of the system. Lifelines are modeled using graph theory, while perturbations, representing a natural or man-made disaster, are applied to the elements of the network following predetermined rules. The cascading effects among interdependent networks have been simulated using a spatial multilayer approach, while the use of an adjacency tensor allows to consider the temporal dimension and its effects. The method has been tested on a case study based on the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster. Different configurations of the system have been analyzed and their probability of occurrence evaluated. Two models of the nuclear power plant have been developed to evaluate how different spatial scales and levels of detail affect the results.

生命线是重要的基础设施系统,其特点是高度相互依赖,任何灾难发生后都可能导致连锁故障。有许多方法可用于分析基础设施的相互依赖关系,但这些方法通常无法描述紧急情况下的事件顺序。因此,相互依存关系的建模还需要考虑时间效应。本文提出的方法基于输入-输出不可操作性模型的改进版,并返回系统每个节点的故障概率。生命线采用图论建模,而代表天灾人祸的扰动则按照预定规则应用于网络元素。使用空间多层方法模拟了相互依存网络之间的级联效应,而使用邻接张量则可以考虑时间维度及其影响。该方法在基于 2011 年福岛第一核电站灾难的案例研究中进行了测试。对系统的不同配置进行了分析,并评估了其发生概率。开发了两个核电站模型,以评估不同的空间尺度和详细程度对结果的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial correlation in building seismic performance for regional resilience assessment 建筑抗震性能的空间相关性促进区域抗灾能力评估
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.06.004
Tian You , Solomon Tesfamariam

Probabilistic seismic performance assessment method for buildings offers a valuable approach to simulate the broader regional impacts: economic losses, downtime, and casualties. A crucial aspect of this process entails accounting for the spatial correlation of building performances, aiming for an accurate estimation of the probability of extreme regional losses, such as the simultaneous collapse of buildings with similar structural characteristics. In this study, a correlation model based on a Gaussian random field is employed, and several key challenges associated with its application are addressed. In addition, efficiency of five different methods of selecting station records from the same earthquake scenario is compared. The minimum number of earthquake records necessary to achieve a stable correlation result is determined. Additionally, spatial correlations derived from different history earthquake events are compared. By addressing these critical issues, this research contributes to refining the reliability of probabilistic methods for regional resilience assessment.

建筑物抗震性能概率评估方法为模拟更广泛的区域影响(经济损失、停工时间和人员伤亡)提供了一种宝贵的方法。这一过程的一个重要方面是考虑建筑物性能的空间相关性,目的是准确估计极端区域损失的概率,如具有相似结构特征的建筑物同时倒塌。本研究采用了基于高斯随机场的相关性模型,并探讨了与应用该模型相关的几个关键挑战。此外,还比较了从同一地震场景中选择台站记录的五种不同方法的效率。确定了获得稳定相关结果所需的最少地震记录数量。此外,还比较了来自不同历史地震事件的空间相关性。通过解决这些关键问题,本研究有助于完善区域抗灾能力评估概率方法的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
Digital twin approach for enhancing urban resilience: A cycle between virtual space and the real world 增强城市复原力的数字孪生方法:虚拟空间与现实世界之间的循环
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.06.002
Yixing Wang , Qingrui Yue , Xinzheng Lu , Donglian Gu , Zhen Xu , Yuan Tian , Shen Zhang

Construction of disaster-resilient cities has attracted considerable attention. However, traditional methods of studying urban disaster resilience through experimental approaches are often constrained by various limitations, such as testing sites, costs and ethical considerations. To address these constraints, this paper proposes incorporating digital twin concepts into urban disaster resilience research. By establishing a connection between the physical realm of the city and its virtual counterpart, this approach utilizes digital simulations to overcome the limitations of experimental methods and enables dynamic deduction and control of the disaster process. This paper delves into three key aspects encompassing the acquisition of data from reality to the virtual space, disaster simulation within the virtual space, and translation of virtual insights into effective disaster prevention strategies in reality. It provides a comprehensive summary of relevant research endeavors from the authors’ research group and showcases the effectiveness and potential of the proposed techniques. These findings serve as references for pre-disaster planning, real-time emergency assessments, post-disaster rescue operations, and accident investigations for buildings and cities.

建设具有抗灾能力的城市已引起广泛关注。然而,通过实验方法研究城市抗灾能力的传统方法往往受到各种限制,如试验场地、成本和伦理考虑等。为了解决这些限制,本文建议将数字孪生概念纳入城市抗灾能力研究。通过建立城市物理领域与虚拟领域之间的联系,这种方法利用数字模拟克服了实验方法的局限性,实现了对灾害过程的动态推演和控制。本文从三个关键方面进行了深入探讨,包括从现实到虚拟空间的数据采集、虚拟空间内的灾害模拟以及将虚拟见解转化为现实中有效的防灾策略。文章全面总结了作者研究小组的相关研究工作,并展示了所建议技术的有效性和潜力。这些研究成果可为建筑物和城市的灾前规划、实时应急评估、灾后救援行动以及事故调查提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian network-based resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems under optimal resource allocation strategies 基于贝叶斯网络的最优资源分配战略下相互依存基础设施系统的复原力评估
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.06.001
Jingran Sun , Kyle Bathgate , Zhanmin Zhang

Critical infrastructure systems (CISs) play a key role in the socio-economic activity of a society, but are exposed to an array of disruptive events that can greatly impact their function and performance. Therefore, understanding the underlying behaviors of CISs and their response to perturbations is needed to better prepare for, and mitigate the impact of, future disruptions. Resilience is one characteristic of CISs that influences the extent and severity of the impact induced by extreme events. Resilience is often dissected into four dimensions: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity, known as the “4Rs”. This study proposes a framework to assess the resilience of an infrastructure network in terms of these four dimensions under optimal resource allocation strategies and incorporates interdependencies between different CISs, with resilience considered as a stochastic variable. The proposed framework combines an agent-based infrastructure interdependency model, advanced optimization algorithms, Bayesian network techniques, and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the resilience of an infrastructure network. The applicability and flexibility of the proposed framework is demonstrated with a case study using a network of CISs in Austin, Texas, where the resilience of the network is assessed and a “what-if” analysis is performed.

关键基础设施系统(CIS)在社会的社会经济活动中发挥着关键作用,但也面临着一系列可能对其功能和性能产生重大影响的干扰事件。因此,需要了解 CIS 的基本行为及其对干扰的响应,以便更好地为未来的干扰做好准备并减轻其影响。复原力是 CIS 的一个特征,它影响着极端事件造成的影响范围和严重程度。抗灾能力通常分为四个方面:稳健性、冗余性、资源性和快速性,即所谓的 "4R"。本研究提出了一个框架,从这四个维度评估基础设施网络在最优资源分配策略下的恢复能力,并将不同 CIS 之间的相互依存关系纳入其中,同时将恢复能力视为一个随机变量。建议的框架结合了基于代理的基础设施相互依赖模型、先进的优化算法、贝叶斯网络技术和蒙特卡罗模拟,以评估基础设施网络的弹性。通过对德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的一个 CIS 网络进行案例研究,评估了该网络的恢复能力,并进行了 "假设 "分析,从而证明了所提框架的适用性和灵活性。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial: From performance-based engineering to cityscape resilience 社论:从性能工程到城市景观复原力
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.08.001
Alice Alipour , Gian Paolo Cimellaro , Xinzheng Lu
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引用次数: 0
Multi-disciplinary seismic resilience modeling for developing mitigation policies and recovery planning 为制定减灾政策和恢复规划建立多学科抗震能力模型
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.07.003
Milad Roohi , Saeid Ghasemi , Omar Sediek , Hwayoung Jeon , John W. van de Lindt , Martin Shields , Sara Hamideh , Harvey Cutler

The multi-disciplinary data and information available at a community level comprise the foundation of natural hazard resilience modeling. These data enable and inform mitigation and recovery planning decisions prior to and following damaging events such as earthquakes. This paper presents a multi-disciplinary seismic resilience modeling methodology to assess the vulnerability of the built environment and economic systems. This methodology can assist decision-makers with developing effective mitigation policies to improve the seismic resilience of communities. Two complementary modeling strategies are designed to examine the impacts of scenario earthquakes from a combined engineering and economic perspective. The engineering model is developed using a probabilistic fragility-based modeling approach and is analyzed using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations subject to seismic multi-hazard, including simulated ground shaking and resulting liquefaction of the soil, to quantify the physical damage to buildings and electric power substations (EPS). The outcome of the analysis is subsequently used as input to repair and recovery models to quantify repair cost and recovery time metrics for buildings and as input to functionality models to estimate the functionality of individual buildings and substations by accounting for their interdependency. The economic model consists of a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model that aggregates commercial buildings into sectors for retail, manufacturing, services, etc., and aggregates residential buildings into a wide range of household groups. The SCGE model employs building functionality estimates to quantify the economic losses. The outcomes of this integrated modeling consist of engineering and economic impact metrics, which are used to investigate mitigation actions to help inform a community on approaches to achieve its resilience goals. An illustrative case study of Salt Lake County (SLC), Utah, developed through an extensive collaborative partnership and engagement with SLC officials, is presented. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in quantifying the loss and functional recovery of infrastructure systems, the impacts on capital stock, employment, and household income and the effect of various mitigation strategies in reducing the losses and functional recovery time subject to earthquakes with varying intensities.

社区层面的多学科数据和信息构成了自然灾害复原力建模的基础。在地震等破坏性事件发生之前和发生之后,这些数据为减灾和恢复规划决策提供了依据和信息。本文介绍了一种多学科抗震能力建模方法,用于评估建筑环境和经济系统的脆弱性。该方法可帮助决策者制定有效的减灾政策,提高社区的抗震能力。设计了两种互补的建模策略,从工程和经济的角度综合考察情景地震的影响。工程模型采用基于概率脆性的建模方法开发,并使用蒙特卡洛(MC)模拟法对地震多重危害进行分析,包括模拟地震动和由此产生的土壤液化,以量化对建筑物和变电站(EPS)造成的物理破坏。分析结果随后将作为修复和恢复模型的输入,以量化建筑物的修复成本和恢复时间指标,并作为功能模型的输入,通过考虑单个建筑物和变电站之间的相互依存关系来估算其功能。经济模型包括一个空间可计算一般均衡(SCGE)模型,该模型将商业建筑汇总到零售、制造、服务等部门,并将住宅建筑汇总到各种家庭群体。SCGE 模型采用建筑物功能估算来量化经济损失。这种综合建模的结果包括工程和经济影响指标,用于调查缓解行动,帮助社区了解实现抗灾目标的方法。本报告介绍了犹他州盐湖县(SLC)的一个示例研究,该研究是通过与盐湖县官员的广泛合作和参与而开发的。研究结果表明,所建议的方法在量化基础设施系统的损失和功能恢复、对资本存量、就业和家庭收入的影响以及各种减灾策略在减少不同强度地震的损失和功能恢复时间方面的效果非常有效。
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引用次数: 0
Community-Level resilience analysis using earthquake-tsunami fragility surfaces 利用地震-海啸脆化面进行社区层面的复原力分析
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.07.006
Mojtaba Harati, John W. van de Lindt

This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility surfaces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis. The methodology facilitates comprehensive evaluations of spatial damage, economic loss, and risk under multi-hazard conditions. This study compares earthquake-only analysis results to the successive earthquake-tsunami analysis at the community level to reveal – and quantify - significant disparities in damage and loss estimations between the analyses, emphasizing the need to consider both hazards in community planning even at lower seismic intensities. Critical assessment of the FEMA combinational rule demonstrates its limitations in accurately predicting losses and damage patterns at higher hazard intensities, highlighting the necessity for refined models that accurately account for hazard interactions. This research advances multi-hazard community-level resilience analysis by offering a robust framework for earthquake and tsunami assessment, underscoring the need for integration of detailed multi-hazard analyses into resilience planning. Finally, it suggests future directions for enhancing framework applicability across diverse community settings and structural types, aiming to improve community resilience.

本研究介绍了一种先进的社区级复原力分析方法,该方法整合了三维脆性面,可用于地震-海啸灾害的综合连续分析。该方法有助于全面评估多重灾害条件下的空间破坏、经济损失和风险。本研究将纯地震分析结果与社区层面的地震-海啸连续分析结果进行了比较,揭示并量化了两种分析之间在损害和损失估计方面的显著差异,强调了在社区规划中同时考虑两种灾害的必要性,即使在地震烈度较低的情况下也是如此。对联邦紧急事务管理局(FEMA)综合规则的严格评估表明,该规则在准确预测较高灾害强度下的损失和损害模式方面存在局限性,这突出表明有必要改进模型,以准确考虑灾害的相互作用。这项研究为地震和海啸评估提供了一个强有力的框架,从而推进了多灾害社区层面的抗灾能力分析,强调了将详细的多灾害分析纳入抗灾规划的必要性。最后,该研究提出了未来的发展方向,以加强框架在不同社区环境和结构类型中的适用性,从而提高社区的抗灾能力。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience of coastal bridges under extreme wave-induced loads 沿海桥梁在极端波浪荷载作用下的恢复能力
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rcns.2024.07.002
Jesika Rahman, Vahid Aghaeidoost, AHM Muntasir Billah

Records of wave-induced damage on coastal bridges during natural hazards have been well documented over the past two decades. It is of utmost importance to decipher the loading mechanism and enhance the resilience of coastal bridges during extreme wave-inducing events. Quantification of vulnerability of these structures is an essential step in designing a resilient bridge system. Recently, considerable efforts have been made to study the force applied and the response of coastal bridge systems during extreme wave loading conditions. Although remarkable progress can be found in the quantification of load and response of coastal superstructures, very few studies assessed coastal bridge resiliency against extreme wave-induced loads. This paper adopts a simplified and practical technique to analyze and assess the resilience of coastal bridges exposed to extreme waves. Component-level and system-level fragility analyses form the basis of the resiliency analysis where the recovery functions are adopted based on the damage levels. It is shown that wave period has the highest contribution to the variation of bridge resiliency. Moreover, this study presents the uncertainty quantification in resiliency variation due to changes in wave load intensity. Results show that the bridge resiliency becomes more uncertain as the intensity of wave parameters increases. Finally, possible restoration strategies based on the desired resilience level and the attitude of decision-makers are also discussed.

在过去的二十年里,有关自然灾害期间波浪对沿海桥梁造成破坏的记录屡见不鲜。破译加载机制并提高沿海桥梁在极端波浪诱发事件中的抗灾能力至关重要。对这些结构的易损性进行量化是设计弹性桥梁系统的重要一步。最近,人们在研究沿海桥梁系统在极端波浪加载条件下的受力和响应方面做了大量的工 作。尽管在沿海上部结构的荷载和响应的量化方面取得了明显的进展,但很少有研究对沿海桥梁抵御极端波浪引起的荷载的能力进行评估。本文采用一种简化和实用的技术来分析和评估暴露在极端波浪中的海岸桥梁的韧性。构件级和系统级脆性分析构成了复原力分析的基础,复原力分析采用的复原函数是基于破坏程度的。结果表明,波浪周期对桥梁复原力变化的影响最大。此外,本研究还对波浪荷载强度变化导致的复原力变化进行了不确定性量化。结果表明,随着波浪参数强度的增加,桥梁复原力的不确定性也会增加。最后,还讨论了基于所需的复原力水平和决策者态度的可行修复策略。
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引用次数: 0
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