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Impact of Information Sharing on Bullwhip Effect in a Non-Serial Supply Chain with Stochastic Lead Time 随机提前期非连续供应链中信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响
Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3947035
Tamerat Kebede Mekonnen
In this paper, we study the impact of information sharing on the bullwhip effect in a supply chain (SC) with one distributor and multiple retailers. We consider three levels of information sharing: No information sharing, demand information sharing, and vendor-managed inventory system. We model retailers’ demands by independent first-order autoregressive processes. We also assume base-stock policies for retailers’ and distributors’ stock replenishment. Following Wu et al. (2008), we derive expressions for the bullwhip effect for each level of information sharing. We considered stochastic lead times for all retailers and the distributor. Our findings suggest that the bullwhip effect decreases with increased information sharing. This observation is in sync with that of Wu et al. (2008), who considered deterministic lead time.
本文研究了一个分销商和多个零售商组成的供应链中信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响。我们考虑了三个层次的信息共享:无信息共享、需求信息共享和供应商管理的库存系统。我们用独立的一阶自回归过程对零售商的需求进行建模。我们还假设零售商和分销商的库存补充的基本库存政策。继Wu et al.(2008)之后,我们推导出了每个信息共享层次的牛鞭效应表达式。我们考虑了所有零售商和分销商的随机交货时间。我们的研究结果表明,牛鞭效应随着信息共享的增加而减弱。这一观察结果与Wu等人(2008)的观察结果一致,他们考虑了确定性的提前期。
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引用次数: 0
On the Problem of the Specific Frequency of Globular Clusters 关于球状星团特定频率的问题
Pub Date : 2021-03-29 DOI: 10.21303/2461-4262.2021.001687
I. Tadjibaev
In the article, on the basis of observational data the problems of the specific frequency of globular clusters are studied. Possible relationships between them and the absolute stellar magnitude of their host galaxy are considered, where the observational data published in the literature were presented. It should be noted that before us the relationship between the specific frequency and the absolute magnitude is shown as exponential functions. An empirical relationship between the specific frequency and the absolute value of the host galaxy were obtained and showed that the dependence of the specific frequency on the absolute magnitude is not linear, but has a quadratic function. It is also shown that the specific frequency determines the number of globular clusters in a given galaxy relative to our Galaxy. Also in the article, based on the results of studies of the specific frequency, some discussions are presented related to the origin and evolution of globular clusters. The results obtained show that the ratios of the specific frequency to the luminosity of the host galaxy are different. Variations in the specific frequency of elliptical galaxies are associated with variations in the mass-to-luminous flux ratio. This may be due to the fact that the number of globular clusters in spiral galaxies per unit of luminosity of the halo and not of the entire galaxy. Analysis of the observational data shows that the values of the specific frequency of spiral galaxies are 5–6 times less than that of giant elliptical ones. As a result of the results of studies of the specific frequency of the globular clusters, unsolved problems are listed and possible solutions are shown. It is noted that the problem posed will be solved even more accurately if it is considered by the types of galaxies.
本文在观测资料的基础上,对球状星团的具体频率问题进行了研究。它们与它们的宿主星系的绝对恒星星等之间可能存在的关系被考虑,在文献中发表的观测数据被提出。应该指出,在我们之前,特定频率和绝对幅度之间的关系是用指数函数表示的。得到了宿主星系比频率与绝对星等的经验关系,表明比频率与绝对星等的关系不是线性的,而是一个二次函数。它还表明,特定的频率决定了在一个给定的星系中相对于我们的银河系的球状星团的数量。本文还根据具体频率的研究结果,对球状星团的起源和演化进行了一些讨论。结果表明,特定频率与宿主星系光度的比值是不同的。椭圆星系特定频率的变化与质量光通量比的变化有关。这可能是由于旋涡星系中每单位光晕亮度的球状星团数量,而不是整个星系的数量。对观测数据的分析表明,螺旋星系的特定频率值比巨椭圆星系小5-6倍。根据对球状星团具体频率的研究结果,列出了尚未解决的问题,并给出了可能的解决方案。值得注意的是,如果考虑到星系的类型,所提出的问题将得到更准确的解决。
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引用次数: 2
A Polynomial Least Squares Multiple-Model Estimator: Simple, Optimal, Adaptive, and Practical 多项式最小二乘多模型估计器:简单、最优、自适应和实用
Pub Date : 2021-02-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3331948
J. Bell
Original polynomial least squares (LS) fits data by constructing coefficients that minimize the sum of squared deviations of deterministic samples from assumed polynomials. Contemporary LS estimates existing polynomial coefficients by filtering out corrupting statistical errors. Kalman Filter (KF) state estimation from noisy data is analogous to polynomial LS estimation. A major problem in both LS and KF target tracking is matching estimator order to target dynamics. 2nd order estimators match constant velocity targets; 3rd order estimators match accelerating targets. Filtered error variances from 3rd order estimators are larger than from 2nd order estimators. 2nd order estimators applied to accelerating targets produce increasing biases as more data are filtered, causing their MSEs (variance plus bias-squared) to rapidly exceed 3rd order variances (MSEs). This becomes troublesome when recurrently maneuvering targets make acceleration jumps. A trade-off between 2nd and 3rd order MSEs is needed. The interacting multiple-model (IMM) addresses this problem adaptively by making adjustments between 2nd and 3rd order KFs with model probabilities as functions of likelihoods from KF residuals and transition probabilities of assumed acceleration jumps. The IMM does not address biases, perform variance/bias-squared trade-offs, or minimize MSEs. In this paper linear interpolation is established between the 2nd and 3rd order polynomial estimators creating the LS multiple-model (LSMM), the 2nd order acceleration bias is defined, and the LSMM MSE is minimized in a variance/bias-squared trade-off. A sequence of optimal LSMMs matched to accelerations covering the spectrum of acceleration between zero and assumed maximum are derived and an adaptive algorithm is designed.
原始多项式最小二乘(LS)通过构造系数来最小化假设多项式的确定性样本的平方偏差之和来拟合数据。当代LS通过过滤掉破坏性的统计误差来估计现有的多项式系数。卡尔曼滤波(KF)在噪声数据中的状态估计类似于多项式LS估计。LS和KF目标跟踪的一个主要问题是估计器阶数与目标动态的匹配。二阶估计器匹配等速目标;三阶估计器匹配加速目标。三阶估计器的滤波误差比二阶估计器的滤波误差大。应用于加速目标的二阶估计器随着更多的数据被过滤而产生越来越多的偏差,导致它们的MSEs(方差加上偏差平方)迅速超过三阶方差(MSEs)。当反复机动的目标加速跳跃时,这就变得麻烦了。需要在二阶和三阶mse之间进行权衡。相互作用多模型(IMM)自适应地解决了这一问题,通过将模型概率作为KF残差的似然函数和假设加速度跳跃的转移概率在2阶和3阶KF之间进行调整。IMM不解决偏差,执行方差/偏差平方权衡,或最小化mse。本文在二阶和三阶多项式估计量之间建立线性插值,建立了LS多模型(LSMM),定义了二阶加速度偏差,并通过方差/偏差平方权衡最小化了LSMM的MSE。推导了覆盖加速度范围从零到假定最大值的最优lsmm序列,并设计了自适应算法。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting and Improving Hydraulic Performance of Pumping Suction Intakes By Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) 基于计算流体力学(CFD)的抽吸进气道水力性能预测与改进
Pub Date : 2020-11-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3732019
Ashraf H. M. Ghanem, Gamal H. Elsaeed, M. A. Rabbo, M. Abuzeid, E. F. Elzahry
The disturbance in velocity distribution generates hydraulic instability of pumping units, which leads to failure, damage and other operation and maintenance difficulties. The objective of this research is to predict and enhance the hydraulic problems in the sump intake of FARASKOUR drainage pumping station on faraskour drain Damietta governorate. the first and fifth units of the operating, water were not analyzed, study of the hydraulic problems of the suction basin of the new pump station due t o the sharp rotation in the suction guide from the sharp rotation to the quay station and the continuous discontinuation of the first and fifth units due to the lack of regular water entering the unit. And recommends the suitable modifications to eliminate the operations and maintenance costs. A numerical simulation was done to investigate the hydraulic stability of the station. There are Four cases were done. The first case, when all units “five units” operate at the same time, the second case when three units operate “1, 2 and 3”, the third case when other three units “3, 4 and 5” operate, and the last case when three units “1, 3 and 5” operate. The ANSYS R18.1 flow simulation software, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to simulate the flow conditions at different working pumping units and different water levels to predict the hydraulic problem at the suction side. The results indicate that the problem of flow is due to the sharp bending of the suction channel at the entrance of the units to the station, leading to two negative phenomena, the first one not to distribute well to the incoming lines of the units, and the second is the appearance of places of relatively low speeds. The internal bending of the stream just before the entry of units directly to this area affects negatively the work of units (4, 5) and the problem becomes more specific with the formation of depositions. In general, the results indicate that with five pumping units’ scenarios in operation appear Dead zones in the inner curvature of the intake. From simulation results, the geometry of the intake is proper for running four parallel flow pumps with the designed flow rate and reduces the distance from both sides of the canal (make Protection basin).
速度分布的扰动会引起抽油机的水力失稳,从而导致故障、损坏等运维困难。本研究的目的是预测和改善FARASKOUR排水泵站在Damietta省FARASKOUR排水沟的水工问题。对1、5号机组的运行情况、进水情况进行了分析,研究了新泵站因吸入导向器急转而引起的新泵站吸水盆水力问题,以及1、5号机组因缺乏正常进水进入机组而不断停产的问题。并建议适当的修改,以减少操作和维护成本。通过数值模拟研究了该电站的水力稳定性。一共做了4例。第一种情况是所有机组“5台”同时运行,第二种情况是三个机组“1、2、3”同时运行,第三种情况是其他三个机组“3、4、5”同时运行,最后一种情况是三个机组“1、3、5”同时运行。利用ANSYS R18.1流动仿真软件CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)对不同工作抽油机和不同水位下的流动情况进行仿真,预测吸力侧的水力问题。结果表明,流动问题是由于机组进站入口处的吸力通道急剧弯曲,导致两种负面现象,一是机组进站线分布不均匀,二是出现相对低速的地方。在单元直接进入该区域之前,水流的内部弯曲对单元(4,5)的功产生了负面影响,随着沉积物的形成,问题变得更加具体。结果表明,在5种工况下,进水口内曲率均存在死区。从仿真结果来看,进水口的几何形状适合以设计流量运行4台并联泵,并且减少了与运河两侧的距离(形成保护池)。
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引用次数: 0
Heptamethine and Nonamethine Cyanine Dyes: Novel Synthetic Strategy, Electronic Transitions, Solvatochromic and Halochromic Evaluation 七甲基和非甲基菁染料:新的合成策略、电子跃迁、溶剂变色和盐变色评价
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.5281/ZENODO.3667451
H. Shindy, M. El-Maghraby, M. Goma, N. A. Harb
New polymethine cyanine dyes covering heptamethine cyanine dyes (tricarbocyanine dyes) and nonamethine cyanine dyes (tetracarbocyanine dyes) derived from the nucleus benzo[(2,3-b)benzoxazine; (2',3'-b')furo (3,2- d)pyrazole] were designed and prepared using novel synthetic strategy. Electronic transitions for all the synthesized cyanine dyes was determined and evaluated through investigating their electronic visible absorption spectra in 95% ethanol solution. The dyes were thought to be better electronic transitions when they absorb light at higher wavelength bands (bathochromic shifted and/or red shifted dyes). Consequently, the electronic transitions of the dyes decreases when they absorb light at lower wavelength bands (hypsochromic shifted and/or blue shifted dyes). Solvatochromic and/or halochromic evaluation for some selected dyes was carried out and determined through examining their electronic visible absorption spectra in 6 (six) pure solvents having different polarities [water (78.54), dimethylformamide (36.70), ethanol (24.3), chloroform (4.806), carbontetrachloride (2.238) and dioxane (2.209)] and/or in 8 (eight) aqueous universal buffer solutions owing varied pH values (1.99, 2.99, 4.30, 6.87, 7.96, 8.91, 10.55 and 12.04 units), respectively. Structural characterization and determination was carried out via elemental analysis, visible, mass, IR and 1HNMR spectroscopic data.
从苯并[(2,3-b)苯并恶嗪衍生的新型多甲基菁染料,包括七甲基菁染料(三碳菁染料)和非甲基菁染料(四碳菁染料);采用新的合成策略设计并制备了(2',3'-b')呋喃(3,2- d)吡唑]。通过研究其在95%乙醇溶液中的电子可见吸收光谱,测定并评价了所有合成的花菁染料的电子跃迁。染料被认为是更好的电子跃迁,当他们吸收光在较高的波长波段(色移和/或红移染料)。因此,当染料吸收较低波长波段的光(次色移和/或蓝移染料)时,染料的电子跃迁减少。通过对所选染料在6种极性不同的纯溶剂[水(78.54)、二甲基甲酰胺(36.70)、乙醇(24.3)、氯仿(4.806)、四氯化碳(2.238)和二恶烷(2.209)]和/或8种pH值不同的通用缓冲水溶液(分别为1.99、2.99、4.30、6.87、7.96、8.91、10.55和12.04单位)中的电子可见吸收光谱进行了溶剂致变色和/或致变色评价。结构表征和测定通过元素分析,可见,质量,红外和1HNMR光谱数据进行。
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引用次数: 10
Irradiation-Induced Segregation at Dislocation Loops in CoCrFeMnNi High Entropy Alloy CoCrFeMnNi高熵合金位错环辐照诱导偏析
Pub Date : 2020-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683505
Wei-Ying Chen, J. Poplawsky, Yiren Chen, W. Guo, J. Yeh
Abstract To understand the redistribution of alloying elements in high entropy alloys under irradiation, a CoCrFeMnNi alloy was irradiated with 1 MeV Kr ions at room temperature and at 500°C, and characterized with atom probe tomography and transmission electron microscopy. At 500°C, Co and Ni were enriched around the interstitial, faulted and perfect, dislocation loops resulted from the ion irradiation. In contrast, no segregation was observed at room temperature. The inverse Kirkendall effect through vacancy flux, as opposed to the interstitial binding mechanism, was the primary underlying process attributing to the observed segregation. In addition, a ring-shaped segregation pattern was observed at the faulted dislocation loops, indicating a non-equilibrium nature of the defect clustering and solute segregation process in CoCrFeMnNi under irradiation at high temperature.
摘要:为了了解高熵合金中合金元素在辐照下的再分布情况,采用1 MeV氪离子在室温和500℃下辐照CoCrFeMnNi合金,并用原子探针断层扫描和透射电镜对其进行了表征。在500℃时,Co和Ni富集在离子辐照形成的间隙、断裂和完美位错环周围。相反,在室温下没有观察到偏析。通过空位通量的逆Kirkendall效应,而不是间隙结合机制,是导致所观察到的分离的主要潜在过程。此外,在错位环处观察到环状偏析模式,表明CoCrFeMnNi在高温辐照下的缺陷聚类和溶质偏析过程具有非平衡性。
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引用次数: 14
Nucleation and Growth of Fe-Rich Phases in Al-5Ti-1B Modified Al-Fe Alloys Using Synchrotron X-Ray Imaging and Electron Microscopy Al-5Ti-1B改性Al-Fe合金中富铁相的形核和生长
Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3675734
Yuliang Zhao, Weiweng Zhang, D. Song, B. Lin, Fanghua Shen, Donghai Zheng, C. Xie, Zhenzhong Sun, Ya-nan Fu, Runxia Li
The plate-like Fe-rich intermetallic phases directly influence the mechanical properties of recycled Al alloys, thus many attempts have been made to modify their morphology. Here, through synchrotron X-ray imaging and electron microscopy, we reveal the underlying nucleation and growth mechanism of Fe-rich phases during the solidification of Al-5Ti-1B inoculated Al-2Fe alloys. The experiment results shown that Al-5Ti-1B grain refiner and applied pressure both reduce the sizes and number of primary Al 3Fe phases, and promote the formation of eutectic Al6Fe phases. The tomography results shown that Al-5Ti-1B change the 3D morphology of primary Fe-rich phases from rod-like to branched plate-like and reduced their thickness and size. This is attributed to the Ti-containing solutes in the melts retard the diffusion of Fe atoms and the TiB2 provide possible nucleation sites for Al6Fe phases. The nucleation mechanism of Fe-rich phases is discussed in terms of experimental observation and E2EM model. It is suggested that the V segregated at the TiB2/Al6Fe interface and lower their mismatch and promote the transformation from Al3Fe to Al6Fe phases.
片状富铁金属间相直接影响再生铝合金的力学性能,因此人们对其形貌进行了许多改变。通过同步x射线成像和电镜技术,揭示了Al-5Ti-1B接种Al-2Fe合金凝固过程中富铁相的形核和生长机制。实验结果表明,Al- 5ti - 1b晶粒细化剂和施加压力均能减小初生al3fe相的尺寸和数量,促进共晶Al6Fe相的形成。层析成像结果表明,Al-5Ti-1B使富铁初生相的三维形貌由棒状变为支片状,并减小了它们的厚度和尺寸。这是由于熔体中含有ti的溶质阻碍了Fe原子的扩散,而TiB2为Al6Fe相提供了可能的成核位置。根据实验观察和E2EM模型,讨论了富铁相的成核机理。结果表明,V在TiB2/Al6Fe界面处偏析,降低了两者的失配,促进了Al3Fe相向Al6Fe相的转变。
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引用次数: 0
An Integrated Experimental and Computational Approach for the Investigation of Irradiation Effects in Materials 材料辐照效应研究的综合实验与计算方法
Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3674666
X. Jin, A. Boulle, A. Chartier, J. Crocombette, A. Debelle
Ion beams delivered by particle accelerators are routinely used to emulate harsh, radiative environments and they also constitute the foundations of the modern microelectronics industry. To characterize irradiated materials, numerous experimental and computational techniques can be implemented, but it is extremely diffcult to effectively intertwine them, and to compare the associated data. In the present work, we present an integrated, experimental and computational approach that uses a same set of molecular dynamics simulations to generate signals of Rutherford backscattering spectrometry in channelling condition andX-ray diffraction, with UO2 as a test-case material. From these signals, parameters to monitor the damage level are computed, compared and confronted with experimental data. The good agreement that comes out demonstrates the validity of the approach, hence providing a new tool for the fine study of irradiation effects in materials.
粒子加速器释放的离子束通常用于模拟恶劣的辐射环境,它们也构成了现代微电子工业的基础。为了表征辐照材料,可以实施许多实验和计算技术,但有效地将它们交织在一起并比较相关数据是极其困难的。在目前的工作中,我们提出了一种集成的实验和计算方法,该方法使用相同的一组分子动力学模拟来生成通道条件下的卢瑟福后向散射光谱和x射线衍射的信号,UO2作为测试用例材料。从这些信号中计算出监测损伤程度的参数,并与实验数据进行比较。结果表明了该方法的有效性,为材料辐照效应的精细研究提供了一种新的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Robocoliths : An Engineered Coccolith-Based Hybrid that Transforms Light into Swarming Motion 机器人巨石:一种基于球石的工程混合体,可以将光转化为群体运动
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3673609
Mihai Lomora, A. Larrañaga, C. R. Emmenegger, B. Rodriguez, I. A. Dinu, J. Sarasua, A. Pandit
The establishment of controlled nano- and mesoscopic energized entities that gather, in a concerted effort, into motile aggregated patterns is at the forefront of scientific discovery. However, translating energy into swarming motion for such miniature-based entities remains a challenge. This requires simultaneously breaking the symmetry of the system to enable locomotion and a coupling effect between the objects that are part of the population to induce the collective motion. Herein, we introduce Robocoliths as a new concept of light-driven Emiliania huxleyi (EHUX) coccolith-based miniature entities capable of swarming behavior. EHUX coccoliths are characterized by an asymmetric morphology, which is a crucial advantage in the design of nano- and mesoscopic objects with locomotory abilities. Their activation with the bioinspired material polydopamine not only endowed the asymmetric coccoliths with advanced functionalities such as thermal and energy harvesting responsiveness under visible light exposure; it also provided a functional surface from which antifouling polymer brushes were grown. The energy harvesting responsive Robocoliths can induce an increase of temperature in the surrounding environment while displaying a collective behavior (i.e., swarming) via a controlled ON-OFF light switching mechanism. In this context, Robocoliths could pave the way for a new generation of multifunctional swarming bio-micromachines with a potential impact in various fields of applications, starting from the analytical and environmental sectors and extending to the therapeutically relevant domains.
建立受控的纳米和介观能量实体,通过协同努力,聚集成可移动的聚集模式,是科学发现的前沿。然而,将能量转化为这种小型实体的群体运动仍然是一个挑战。这需要同时打破系统的对称性,以实现运动,并在作为群体一部分的物体之间产生耦合效应,以诱导集体运动。在此,我们介绍了Robocoliths作为一个新概念的光驱动埃米利亚·赫胥黎(EHUX)球石为基础的微型实体能够蜂群行为。EHUX球粒具有不对称的形态特征,这对设计具有运动能力的纳米和介观物体具有重要的优势。它们与生物激发材料聚多巴胺的激活不仅赋予了不对称球石先进的功能,如在可见光照射下的热和能量收集响应;它还提供了一个功能表面,从中生长防污聚合物刷。能量收集响应机器人巨石可以诱导周围环境温度的增加,同时显示集体行为(即蜂群)通过控制的开关光机制。在这种情况下,Robocoliths可以为新一代多功能蜂群生物微机器铺平道路,在各个应用领域具有潜在的影响,从分析和环境部门开始,扩展到治疗相关领域。
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引用次数: 0
Denied by an (Unexplainable) Algorithm: Teleological Explanations for Algorithmic Decisions Enhance Customer Satisfaction 被(无法解释的)算法否定:算法决策的目的论解释提高了客户满意度
Pub Date : 2020-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683754
Geoff Tomaino, Hisham Abdulhalim, Pavel Kireyev, K. Wertenbroch
Algorithmic or automated decision-making has become commonplace, with firms implementing either rule-based or statistical models to determine whether or not to provide services to customers based on their past behaviors. Policy-makers are pressed to determine if and how to require firms to explain the decisions made by their algorithms, especially in cases where the algorithms are “unexplainable,” or are equivalently subject to legal or commercial confidentiality restrictions or too complex for humans to understand. We study consumer responses to goal-oriented, or “teleological,” explanations, which present the purpose or objective of the algorithm without revealing its mechanism, making them candidates for explaining decisions made by “unexplainable” algorithms. In a field experiment with a technology firm and several online lab experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of teleological explanations and identify conditions when teleological and mechanistic explanations can be equally satisfying. Participants perceive teleological explanations as fair, even though algorithms with a fair goal may employ an unfair mechanism. Our results show that firms may benefit by offering teleological explanations for unexplainable algorithm behavior. Regulators can mitigate possible risks by educating consumers about the potential disconnect between an algorithm’s goal and its mechanism.
算法或自动化决策已经变得司空见惯,公司要么实施基于规则的模型,要么实施统计模型,根据客户过去的行为来决定是否向他们提供服务。政策制定者被迫决定是否以及如何要求公司解释其算法做出的决定,特别是在算法“无法解释”的情况下,或者同样受到法律或商业保密限制,或者过于复杂,人类无法理解。我们研究了消费者对目标导向或“目的论”解释的反应,这些解释在不揭示其机制的情况下呈现了算法的目的或目标,使它们成为解释由“不可解释”算法做出的决定的候选人。在与一家技术公司的实地实验和几个在线实验室实验中,我们证明了目的论解释的有效性,并确定了目的论和机械论解释可以同样令人满意的条件。参与者认为目的论解释是公平的,即使具有公平目标的算法可能采用不公平的机制。我们的研究结果表明,企业可以通过为无法解释的算法行为提供目的论解释而获益。监管机构可以通过教育消费者,让他们了解算法的目标和机制之间可能存在的脱节,从而降低可能存在的风险。
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引用次数: 8
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