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National Identity and Democracy Ratings 国家认同与民主评级
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241259457
S. Bush, Melina R. Platas
Global performance indicators, such as democracy ratings, are influential tools of global governance and can have a direct bearing on foreign policy, aid, and investment. Many of these indicators rely on expert assessments. Although expert assessments are generally understood to be objective, this article suggests raters’ identities may shape their assessments. It specifically examines how national identity shapes democracy ratings. Two data sources—an original survey of experts on Uganda and the Varieties of Democracy Institute—reveal significant differences in the ratings provided by national and non-national experts. In most cases, ratings by nationals are more positive. This article explores three potential reasons for the difference, finding some support for each: national differences in information access and consumption, national differences in conceptions of democracy, and in-group–out-group bias. The findings have implications for our understanding of global performance indicators, which are overwhelmingly a product of Global North organizations.
民主评级等全球绩效指标是具有影响力的全球治理工具,可对外交政策、援助和投资产生直接影响。其中许多指标依赖于专家评估。尽管专家评估通常被认为是客观的,但本文认为,评估者的身份可能会影响他们的评估。本文特别探讨了国家认同如何影响民主评级。两个数据来源--对乌干达问题专家的原始调查和各种民主研究所--揭示了本国专家和非本国专家提供的评级之间的显著差异。在大多数情况下,本国专家的评价更为积极。本文探讨了造成这种差异的三个潜在原因,发现每个原因都有一定的支持性:信息获取和消费方面的国家差异、民主观念方面的国家差异以及群体内-群体外偏见。这些发现对我们理解全球绩效指标有一定影响,因为这些指标绝大多数是全球北方组织的产物。
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引用次数: 0
The Facade of Control: The Political and Military Backlash to Curfews During Civil Conflicts 控制的表象:国内冲突期间对宵禁的政治和军事反弹
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241259445
Miceal Canavan, Oguzhan Turkoglu
Curfews are commonly used by governments to control restive populations during conflict, but are they effective? Although the primary goal for governments is to increase military advantage, they also cause significant disruptions to civilian life which may provoke a backlash. In this study, we analyze the effect of curfews on public attitudes and rebel attacks in Turkey. Exploiting the closeness of two national elections and the implementation of curfews between these elections, we employ novel data in a difference-in-difference analysis to examine effects on voting and violence. Our results show that curfews provoke a dual backlash effect. First, they decrease support for the ruling party and increase support for Kurdish and Turkish national opposition parties in the areas where they are implemented. Second, they increase the number of rebel attacks in the areas that experience a curfew. This paper provides robust evidence for the backlash effects of indiscriminate non-violent tactics.
在冲突期间,政府通常使用宵禁来控制不安分的民众,但宵禁是否有效?虽然政府的主要目标是提高军事优势,但宵禁也会对平民生活造成严重破坏,从而引发反弹。在本研究中,我们分析了宵禁对土耳其公众态度和叛军袭击的影响。我们利用两次全国大选的临近和两次大选之间实施宵禁的情况,通过差分分析中的新数据来研究宵禁对投票和暴力的影响。我们的研究结果表明,宵禁引发了双重反弹效应。首先,在实施宵禁的地区,宵禁会降低执政党的支持率,增加库尔德和土耳其民族反对党的支持率。其次,在实施宵禁的地区,反叛袭击的次数会增加。本文为不分青红皂白的非暴力策略的反弹效应提供了有力的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Bureaucratic Capacity and Political Favoritism in Public Procurement 公共采购中的官僚能力和政治偏袒
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241259448
Diego Romero
Government contracts are a huge business and, in many countries, are associated with considerable corruption. Much research emphasizes bureaucratic improvements as a means to reduce corruption. This paper draws a sharp distinction between the extent to which a bureaucracy is politically controlled and its technical capacity. In it, I argue that in politically controlled bureaucracies, stronger technical capacity facilitates corruption. In such contexts, more capable bureaucrats utilize their skills to shield favored firms from competition using complex strategies that minimize the risk of detection. I test the argument on a novel dataset of 54,623 municipal contracts in Guatemala awarded between 2013 and 2019 and 21,631 firm-politician ties. I find that more capable bureaucracies increase the likelihood of well-connected firms winning contracts through less competitive processes. This paper delivers important policy lessons, an original, widely applicable, measure of political networks and new insights into the sources of corruption.
政府合同是一项庞大的业务,在许多国家都与相当严重的腐败有关。许多研究都强调改善官僚体制是减少腐败的一种手段。本文对官僚机构受政治控制的程度和其技术能力进行了明确区分。我在文中指出,在受政治控制的官僚机构中,较强的技术能力会助长腐败。在这种情况下,能力更强的官僚会利用他们的技能,采用复杂的策略,最大限度地降低被发现的风险,保护受青睐的企业免受竞争。我利用危地马拉 2013 年至 2019 年间签订的 54,623 份市政合同和 21,631 个企业与政治家之间的关系的新数据集检验了这一论点。我发现,能力更强的官僚机构增加了关系良好的公司通过竞争性较弱的程序赢得合同的可能性。本文提供了重要的政策经验、一种原创的、广泛适用的政治网络衡量标准,以及对腐败来源的新见解。
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引用次数: 0
How Erroneous Beliefs Trigger Authoritarian Collapse: The Case of Tunisia, January 14, 2011 错误的信仰如何引发专制崩溃?突尼斯案例》,2011 年 1 月 14 日
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252101
Anne Wolf
Why was the longtime Tunisian ruler Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali ousted on January 14, 2011? Prevailing theories focus on popular mobilization, grievances, and the role of the army to explain the collapse of the authoritarian regime. I evaluate these arguments in light of new empirical evidence, which shows that they are insufficient to explain Ben Ali’s ousting. Analyzing key decisional moments and counterfactual scenarios, I propose that the regime collapsed because of a set of erroneous beliefs, which flourished amid the contingent revolutionary context. Erroneous beliefs are endogenous to highly contingent revolutionary periods and a potential contingency themselves in that they can change collective outcomes. This study shows how the microanalysis of events can furnish new insights into highly impactful events in history—the collapse of the Ben Ali regime gave rise to the wider Arab Uprisings—and topics of key concern to scholars of contentious politics, authoritarianism, and democratization.
突尼斯长期统治者宰因-阿比丁-本-阿里为何于 2011 年 1 月 14 日下台?流行的理论主要从民众动员、不满情绪和军队的作用来解释专制政权的崩溃。我根据新的经验证据对这些论点进行了评估,结果表明它们不足以解释本-阿里下台的原因。通过分析关键的决策时刻和反事实情景,我提出,政权垮台的原因是一系列错误的信念,这些信念在偶然的革命背景下大行其道。错误信念是高度偶然性革命时期的内生因素,其本身也是一种潜在的偶然性,因为它们可以改变集体结果。本研究展示了对事件的微观分析如何为历史上影响深远的事件--本-阿里政权的垮台引发了更广泛的阿拉伯起义--以及研究争议政治、专制主义和民主化的学者们所关注的重要课题提供新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Can Gender Quotas Improve Public Service Provision? Evidence From Indian Local Government 性别配额能否改善公共服务的提供?印度地方政府的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252080
Varun Karekurve-Ramachandra, Alexander Lee
What effect do gender quotas have on political responsiveness? We examine the effect of randomly imposed electoral quotas for women in Mumbai’s city council, using a wide variety of objective and subjective measures of constituency-level public service quality. Quotas are associated with differences in the distribution of legislator effort, with quota members focusing on public goods distribution, while non-quota members focus on individual goods, member perks, and identity issues. These differences in effort seem to influence institutional performance: perceived quality of local public goods is higher in constituencies with quota members, and citizen complaints are processed faster in areas with more quota members. We suggest that men’s more extensive engagement with extralegal and rhetorical forms of political action has led to men and women cultivating different styles of political representation.
性别配额对政治响应有何影响?我们利用选区公共服务质量的各种客观和主观衡量标准,研究了孟买市议会中随机实施的女性选举配额的效果。配额与立法者努力分布的差异有关,配额成员专注于公共产品的分配,而非配额成员则专注于个人产品、成员津贴和身份问题。这些努力上的差异似乎会影响制度绩效:在有配额制成员的选区,人们对当地公共产品的认知质量更高;在有更多配额制成员的地区,公民投诉的处理速度更快。我们认为,男性更广泛地参与法外和修辞形式的政治行动,导致男性和女性形成了不同的政治代表风格。
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引用次数: 2
Ethnic Media and the Mobilization of Identity 民族媒体与身份动员
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252076
Giacomo Lemoli
This paper studies the relationship between ethnic media, which produce content in a minority language, and the success of ethnic parties. I argue that, by embedding cultural traits in entertainment products, media outlets can shape the salience of group identity, which helps parties’ mobilization efforts. I test this argument in the case of the Basque Country where, in the late phase of the Franco regime, an independent radio station operated by local clergy promoted the revival of regional language. Using contemporary, archival, and survey data, I show that exposure to ethnic radio increased support for new radical independentist parties and that the effect is driven by formerly Spanish-speaking municipalities with low historical support for Basque nationalism. I also show that radio increased bilingualism in subsequent generations and contributed to the bundling of ethnic identity revival and radical political ideology during the democratic transition.
本文研究了以少数民族语言制作内容的少数民族媒体与少数民族政党的成功之间的关系。我认为,通过在娱乐产品中植入文化特质,媒体可以塑造群体身份的显著性,从而有助于政党的动员工作。我以巴斯克地区为例验证了这一论点,在佛朗哥政权后期,由当地神职人员运营的独立广播电台推动了地区语言的复兴。通过使用当代、档案和调查数据,我发现接触民族广播会增加对新的激进独立政党的支持,而这种效应是由历史上对巴斯克民族主义支持率较低的前西班牙语城市推动的。我还表明,在民主转型期间,广播增加了后代的双语能力,并促进了民族身份复兴和激进政治意识形态的捆绑。
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引用次数: 0
What Men Want: Parties’ Strategic Engagement With Gender Quotas 男人想要什么?政党对性别配额的战略参与
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252073
Julia Michal Clark, A. Blackman, Aytuğ Şaşmaz
Women’s under-representation, particularly in political leadership, remains an important issue globally. Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections included the adoption of strict gender quotas that resulted in near-parity of male and female elected councilors. Despite this achievement for descriptive representation, fewer than 20% of mayors—selected from among elected list-heads—were women. We argue that this gender gap in council leadership is the result of parties’ strategic engagement with the quota laws. Using election data, an original survey of candidates, and interviews, we demonstrate that parties systematically placed female-headed lists in their weakest districts, placing female candidates at a disadvantage during the mayoral selection process. We provide evidence that these behaviors were motivated by a strategy to avoid “displacing” men in established political networks. This research highlights the role that party elites play in maintaining the existing political bargain at the expense of underrepresented groups, even where strict quotas are adopted.
妇女代表性不足,特别是在政治领导层中,仍然是全球范围内的一个重要问题。突尼斯在 2018 年的市政选举中采用了严格的性别配额,使当选议员的男女比例接近均等。尽管在描述性代表方面取得了这一成就,但从当选的名单负责人中选出的市长中,只有不到 20% 是女性。我们认为,议会领导层中的这种性别差距是各政党战略性地参与配额法的结果。利用选举数据、对候选人的原始调查和访谈,我们证明了政党有计划地将女性领导的名单放在其最弱的选区,使女性候选人在市长遴选过程中处于不利地位。我们提供的证据表明,这些行为的动机是为了避免在既有政治网络中 "取代 "男性。这项研究凸显了政党精英在维持现有政治交易中扮演的角色,即使在采用严格配额制的情况下,他们也会以牺牲代表性不足的群体为代价。
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引用次数: 0
Government Religious Discrimination, Support of Religion, and Muslim Minority-Related Societal Violence in Western Democracies 西方民主国家政府的宗教歧视、对宗教的支持以及与穆斯林少数民族相关的社会暴力问题
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252077
Osman Suntay
Does government-based religious discrimination against religious minorities and government support of majority religion affect religiously motivated societal violence between minorities and majority religious groups in Western democracies? Analyzing Muslim minorities, this study tries to answer the question by looking specifically at the religious violence perpetrated by and against these minorities in the West. Using a novel cross-national time-series data on 25 Western countries disaggregated by victim and perpetrator groups, this paper finds that while discrimination contributes to a country encountering religiously driven societal violence perpetrated by both Muslim and majority religious groups, government support for majority religion seems to pose no security threat. Furthermore, a case study analysis of the UK employing the synthetic control method corroborates the results of the cross-country analysis. The findings have important policy implications for counter-strategies against both Islamic and right-wing violent extremism in the West.
在西方民主国家,政府对宗教少数群体的宗教歧视和政府对宗教多数群体的支持是否会影响少数群体与宗教多数群体之间出于宗教动机的社会暴力?本研究以穆斯林少数群体为分析对象,通过具体研究这些少数群体在西方实施的宗教暴力和针对这些少数群体的宗教暴力,试图回答这个问题。本文利用按受害者和施暴者群体分类的 25 个西方国家的新型跨国时间序列数据,发现虽然歧视会导致一个国家遭遇由穆斯林和多数派宗教团体实施的宗教驱动的社会暴力,但政府对多数派宗教的支持似乎并不构成安全威胁。此外,采用合成控制法对英国进行的案例研究分析也证实了跨国分析的结果。这些发现对西方国家打击伊斯兰和右翼暴力极端主义的政策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Worst of the Bunch: Visual Comparative Benchmarks Change Evaluations of Government Performance 最差的一群:可视化比较基准改变了对政府绩效的评价
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252095
William L. Allen, Kristoffer Ahlstrom-Vij
Benchmarking theories argue voters use information about other countries’ performances, usually on the economy and obtained through experience or media, to evaluate their own governments. Yet existing observational evidence is relatively fragile and struggles to distinguish how people become more knowledgeable. Using a pre-registered experiment, we showed UK respondents a chart displaying the UK’s exceptionally high cumulative COVID-19 deaths either in isolation or alongside European countries with fewer deaths. Mimicking widely-circulated charts, this visual treatment enhances our study’s external validity and tests the media-based channel for benchmarking. Aligned with pre-registered expectations, seeing the UK as “worst of the bunch” compared to UK-only data caused more negative government evaluations. Unexpectedly, partisanship did not moderate the information effects, while exploratory tests revealed the visuals generated more negative evaluations among respondents with high political trust. Our study shows international comparisons in visual forms can change domestic opinion, and on matters beyond strictly economic performance.
标杆理论认为,选民会利用有关其他国家表现的信息(通常是通过经验或媒体获得的有关经济的信息)来评价本国政府。然而,现有的观察证据相对脆弱,难以区分人们是如何变得更加了解其他国家的。通过预先登记的实验,我们向英国受访者展示了一张图表,该图表单独或与死亡人数较少的欧洲国家一起显示了英国异常高的 COVID-19 累计死亡人数。模仿广泛传播的图表,这种视觉处理增强了我们研究的外部有效性,并检验了基于媒体的基准测试渠道。与预先登记的预期一致,与仅英国的数据相比,将英国视为 "最糟糕的国家 "会引起更多对政府的负面评价。出乎意料的是,党派倾向并没有缓和信息效应,而探索性测试表明,视觉效果在政治信任度高的受访者中产生了更多负面评价。我们的研究表明,可视化形式的国际比较可以改变国内舆论,而且是在严格意义上的经济表现之外。
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引用次数: 0
The Political Legacies of Wartime Resistance: How Local Communities in Italy Keep Anti-fascist Sentiments Alive 战时抵抗的政治遗产:意大利地方社区如何保持反法西斯情绪
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1177/00104140241252094
Simone Cremaschi, J. Masullo
Can past wartime experiences affect political behavior beyond those who lived through them? We argue that local experiences of armed resistance leave political legacies that “memory entrepreneurs” can translate into contemporary political action via a community-based process of intergenerational transmission consisting of three core activities – memorialization, localization, and mobilization. We empirically substantiate this argument in Italy, where an intense armed resistance movement against Nazi-Fascist forces took place in the 1940s. We combine statistical analysis of original data across Italian municipalities and within-case analysis of a purposively selected locality to show how the past impacts the present via the preservation and activation of collective memories. This study improves our understanding of the processes of long-term transmission, emphasizes armed resistance as a critical source of the long-term political legacies of war, and explores its political effects beyond electoral and party politics.
过去的战争经历能否影响亲历者之外的政治行为?我们认为,当地的武装抵抗经历会留下政治遗产,而 "记忆企业家 "可以通过以社区为基础的代际传承过程将这些遗产转化为当代的政治行动,这一过程包括三项核心活动--纪念、本地化和动员。20 世纪 40 年代,意大利发生了激烈的反纳粹法西斯武装抵抗运动,我们通过实证研究证实了这一论点。我们结合了对意大利各城市原始数据的统计分析和对有目的选择的地方进行的个案内部分析,展示了过去如何通过保存和激活集体记忆来影响现在。这项研究加深了我们对长期传播过程的理解,强调武装抵抗是战争长期政治遗产的重要来源,并探讨了其在选举和政党政治之外的政治影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Studies
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