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China’s Low-Productivity Innovation Drive: Evidence From Patents 中国的低生产率创新驱动:来自专利的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209960
Yuen Yuen Ang, Nan Jia, Bo Yang, Kenneth G. Huang
Can China catch-up with the United States technologically by mobilizing its bureaucracy and assigning ambitious targets to local governments? We analyzed an original dataset of 4.6 million patents filed in China from 1990 through 2014 and paired this with a new, rigorous measure of patent novelty that approximates the quality of innovation. In 2006, China’s central government launched a national campaign to promote indigenous innovation and introduced bureaucratic targets for patents. Our analysis finds evidence that these targets, combined with political competition, pushed local governments to “game the numbers” by channeling relatively more effort toward boosting non-novel—possibly junk—patents over novel patents. Nationally, this is reflected in a surge of aggregate patents paired with a falling ratio of novel patents. China’s innovation drive is susceptible to manipulation and waste—it is enormous in scale but low in productivity.
通过调动官僚机构和给地方政府制定雄心勃勃的目标,中国能否在技术上赶上美国?我们分析了1990年至2014年在中国申请的460万件专利的原始数据集,并将其与一种新的、严格的专利新颖性指标相匹配,该指标接近创新质量。2006年,中国中央政府发起了一项促进自主创新的全国性运动,并为专利设定了官僚目标。我们的分析发现,有证据表明,这些目标加上政治竞争,促使地方政府“玩弄数字”,将相对更多的努力引向促进非新颖专利(可能是垃圾专利),而不是新颖专利。在全国范围内,这反映在专利总量的激增和新专利比例的下降上。中国的创新动力容易受到操纵和浪费——规模巨大,但生产率很低。
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引用次数: 0
All the Sultan’s Men: Regime Type, Insecurity, and the Shuffling of Governors 所有苏丹的人:政权类型、不安全感和统治者的洗牌
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231209963
Yusuf Magiya, Bogdan G. Popescu, Güneş M. Tezcür
Why do some political rulers engage in frequent shuffling of their governors while others allow their governors to serve longer? We argue that shuffling of governors reflects the level of a ruler’s perception of insecurity. Building on perspectives about situational origins of distrust and paranoid cognition, we argue that democratic leaders, characterized by higher levels of existential security, practice less frequent shuffling of governors compared to authoritarian ones. We also suggest that governors in localities characterized by higher levels of ethnic conflict and poor electoral performance by a ruling government are more likely to be replaced. Utilizing an original dataset of all Ottoman and Turkish governors from 1875 to 2019, our empirical analyses show that governors last longer under more democratic governments, in provinces with lower levels of ethnic diversity conflict, and stronger electoral support for the government.
为什么一些政治统治者频繁更换他们的州长,而另一些则允许他们的州长任职更长时间?我们认为,省长的洗牌反映了统治者对不安全感的感知程度。基于对不信任和偏执认知的情境起源的观点,我们认为,与威权主义领导人相比,民主领导人具有更高水平的存在安全感,因此不太频繁地更换州长。我们还建议,在种族冲突程度较高、执政政府选举表现不佳的地方,州长更有可能被替换。利用1875年至2019年所有奥斯曼帝国和土耳其总督的原始数据集,我们的实证分析表明,在更民主的政府下,在种族多样性冲突水平较低、选民对政府支持更强的省份,州长的任期更长。
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引用次数: 0
Why Corporate Political Connections Can Impede Investment 为什么企业政治关系会阻碍投资
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204227
Robert Kubinec, Haillie N. Lee, Andrey Tomashevskiy
In this experiment, we manipulate corporate political connections to assess whether a company’s political influence serves as a barrier or an inducement to investment. We utilize survey data from 3329 firm employees and managers across Venezuela, Ukraine, and Egypt. Overall, our findings suggest that respondents generally prefer not to invest in companies with political connections. Interestingly, this aversion is conditional on the respondent’s company’s own level of political connection: individuals from highly connected companies do not penalize connected companies as investment choices. In contrast, those from less-connected companies are inclined to invest in companies without political connections. We theorize that this pattern is rooted in differences in how companies with varying levels of connections manage liabilities. Our data reveal that connected companies are more likely to employ informal, rather than formal, mechanisms to resolve disputes. We argue that unconnected investors likely prefer investing in unconnected companies to better ensure that their property rights are safeguarded.
在这个实验中,我们操纵公司的政治关系来评估公司的政治影响力是作为投资的障碍还是诱因。我们利用来自委内瑞拉、乌克兰和埃及的3329名公司员工和管理人员的调查数据。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,受访者普遍不愿投资有政治关系的公司。有趣的是,这种厌恶取决于受访者所在公司自身的政治关系水平:来自高度关联公司的个人不会因为投资选择而惩罚关联公司。相比之下,那些来自人脉较少的公司的投资者则倾向于投资那些没有政治人脉的公司。我们的理论认为,这种模式的根源在于不同联系程度的公司管理负债的方式存在差异。我们的数据显示,关联企业更有可能采用非正式而非正式的机制来解决纠纷。我们认为,没有关联的投资者可能更愿意投资于没有关联的公司,以更好地确保他们的产权得到保护。
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引用次数: 0
Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries 选民与IMF:来自欧洲危机国家的实验证据
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204229
Evelyne Hübscher, Thomas Sattler, Markus Wagner
IMF interventions are often associated with rising political discontent in countries where the Fund intervenes. Studies examining this relationship, however, face the challenge of disentangling the impact of the IMF from the impact of the crisis that triggered the intervention. To address this challenge, we conduct survey experiments in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain and directly assess how voters evaluate the costs and benefits of an IMF intervention. We find that voters believe that the crisis will more likely be solved when the IMF intervenes, but they are also critical of the corresponding loss of national sovereignty. Because the former consideration, on average, dominates their assessment, IMF interventions increase the support of voters for unpopular economic policies. Nonetheless, cross-country differences suggest that continued public support for intervention hinges on the IMF’s ability to deliver on its promise to help resolve the crisis.
国际货币基金组织的干预往往与该组织干预的国家日益高涨的政治不满情绪有关。然而,研究这种关系的研究面临着将IMF的影响与引发干预的危机的影响区分开来的挑战。为了应对这一挑战,我们在希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙进行了调查实验,并直接评估选民如何评估IMF干预的成本和收益。我们发现,选民们相信,当IMF进行干预时,危机将更有可能得到解决,但他们也对相应的国家主权丧失持批评态度。由于前一种考虑通常在他们的评估中占主导地位,IMF的干预增加了选民对不受欢迎的经济政策的支持。尽管如此,各国之间的差异表明,公众对干预的持续支持取决于IMF是否有能力兑现其帮助解决危机的承诺。
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引用次数: 0
Emigration, Social Remittances and Fiscal Policy Preferences: Experimental Evidence From Mexico 移民、社会汇款与财政政策偏好:来自墨西哥的实验证据
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204235
Ana Isabel López García, Sarah Berens, Barry Maydom
How does emigration affect tax preferences in migrant-sending countries? Experiencing public services in a high tax-capacity destination may reduce support for tax increases by throwing fiscal failure at home into stark relief (the socialization hypothesis). Alternatively, migrants’ exclusion from certain public services may increase desire to fund these services in migrant origin countries (the exclusion hypothesis). We test these competing hypotheses with an online survey experiment in Mexico and explore variation in US healthcare access on fiscal policy preferences of migrant households. Migrant households, especially those with returned migrant members, are more supportive of taxation when tax revenue is earmarked for healthcare, a service to which many Mexican immigrants in the US lack access. It is migrants’ exclusion from, rather than their socialization into, the fiscal contract in destination countries that influences fiscal policy preferences in their countries of origin.
移民如何影响移民输出国的税收优惠?在高税收能力的目的地体验公共服务可能会减少对增税的支持,因为这将使国内的财政失败暴露无遗(社会化假设)。或者,移徙者被排除在某些公共服务之外可能会增加为移徙者原籍国的这些服务提供资金的愿望(排除假说)。我们通过在墨西哥进行的在线调查实验检验了这些相互竞争的假设,并探讨了移民家庭财政政策偏好对美国医疗保健获取的影响。移民家庭,尤其是那些有返乡移民成员的移民家庭,在税收被指定用于医疗保健时,更支持税收,因为许多在美国的墨西哥移民无法享受医疗保健服务。影响移民原籍国财政政策偏好的是移民被排斥在目的地国的财政契约之外,而不是他们被融入其中。
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引用次数: 0
The Pre-Colonial Roots of Colonial Coercion: Evidence From British Burma 殖民胁迫的前殖民根源:来自英属缅甸的证据
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204259
Htet Thiha Zaw
Under severe fiscal constraints that plagued colonial states, how did governments allocate their coercive power throughout the colonized territory? In this paper, I highlight the pre-colonial state consolidation as an important determinant of colonial coercion. When the state established control over society by appointing new local agents, the society became more compliant to state demands, reducing the need for coercion over the long run. To evaluate this argument in British Burma, I collected new data from indigenous land revenue inquests and colonial police reports, using the pre-colonial variation in local headman appointment after a plausibly exogenous extinction of a hereditary line. I find that places closer to locations that received new pre-colonial headmen experienced significantly lower colonial police presence. Neither spatial correlation nor the presence of other state institutions can explain the results. The findings emphasize the deep origins of contentious state-society relations that extend beyond colonial legacies.
在困扰殖民国家的严重财政限制下,政府如何在整个殖民领土上分配其强制性权力?在本文中,我强调殖民前的国家巩固是殖民胁迫的一个重要决定因素。当国家通过任命新的地方代理人来建立对社会的控制时,社会变得更加顺从国家的要求,从长远来看减少了对强制的需要。为了评估英属缅甸的这一论点,我从土著土地收入调查和殖民地警察报告中收集了新的数据,使用了在一个遗传谱系似乎是外生灭绝后,当地酋长任命的前殖民变化。我发现,在那些更接近殖民前新首领所在地的地方,殖民警察的存在明显更少。无论是空间相关性还是其他国家机构的存在都不能解释这一结果。这些发现强调了有争议的国家-社会关系的深层根源,这种关系超越了殖民遗产。
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引用次数: 0
Gender and Clientelism: Do Expectations of Patronage Penalize Women Candidates in Legislative Elections? 性别与裙带关系:立法机构选举中对女性候选人的庇护期望是否不利?
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231204248
Paul Schuler
How does the salience of clientelism in politics impact voter support for women legislative candidates? Existing research finds little bias against women legislative candidates in survey experiments. Where bias exists, it is due to “role congruity,” where voters penalize women because of a perceived lack of specific traits or issue preferences suitable for the position. Building on existing work, I theorize that the ability to deliver patronage is a “role” voters might find stereotypically incongruous with women. Using two waves of a nationally representative survey in Vietnam, I generate preregistered predictions about the impact of a clientelism prime on bias against women legislative candidates. I then test the prediction, with results showing that when clientelism is primed, bias against women candidates increases. These results provide evidence that clientelism has gendered effects on political representation. It also theorizes an additional “role” that could penalize women at the polls.
政治中的庇护主义是如何影响选民对女性立法候选人的支持的?现有研究发现,在调查实验中,对女性立法候选人几乎没有偏见。如果存在偏见,则是由于“角色一致性”,即选民因为认为女性缺乏适合该职位的特定特征或问题偏好而惩罚女性。在现有研究的基础上,我推测,选民可能会认为,提供赞助的能力是一种与女性格格不入的“角色”。通过在越南进行的两波具有全国代表性的调查,我对裙带关系对女性立法候选人的偏见的影响进行了预登记预测。然后我对这个预测进行了测试,结果显示,当客户主义被启动时,对女性候选人的偏见就会增加。这些结果提供了证据,表明庇护主义对政治代表性有性别影响。它还提出了一个额外的“角色”,可能会在投票中惩罚女性。
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引用次数: 0
Online Disinformation Predicts Inaccurate Beliefs About Election Fairness Among Both Winners and Losers 网上的虚假信息预测了赢家和输家对选举公平性的不准确信念
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-16 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193008
Marlene Mauk, Max Grömping
Electoral disinformation is feared to variously undermine democratic trust by inflaming incorrect negative beliefs about the fairness of elections, or to shore up dictators by creating falsely positive ones. Recent studies of political misperceptions, however, suggest that disinformation has at best minimal effects on beliefs. In this article, we investigate the drivers of public perceptions and misperceptions of election fairness. We build on theories of rational belief updating and motivated reasoning, and link public opinion data from 82 national elections with expert survey data on disinformation and de facto electoral integrity. We show that, overall, people arrive at largely accurate perceptions, but that disinformation campaigns are indeed associated with less accurate and more polarized beliefs about election fairness. This contributes a cross-nationally comparative perspective to studies of (dis)information processing and belief updating, as well as attitude formation and trust surrounding highly salient political institutions such as elections.
人们担心,选举虚假信息会通过煽动对选举公平性的错误负面信念,从各个方面破坏民主信任,或者通过制造错误的正面信念,来支持独裁者。然而,最近关于政治误解的研究表明,虚假信息对信念的影响最多是最小的。在这篇文章中,我们调查了公众对选举公平的认知和误解的驱动因素。我们建立在理性信念更新和动机推理理论的基础上,并将82次全国选举的民意数据与关于虚假信息和事实上的选举完整性的专家调查数据联系起来。我们的研究表明,总体而言,人们得出的看法在很大程度上是准确的,但虚假信息运动确实与对选举公平的不太准确和更两极分化的信念有关。这为研究(非)信息处理和信念更新,以及围绕高度突出的政治制度(如选举)的态度形成和信任提供了一个跨国比较的视角。
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引用次数: 0
The Mobilizing Effect of Party System Polarization. Evidence From Europe 政党制度极化的动员效应。来自欧洲的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194059
Fabio Ellger
Does party system polarization mobilize voters? Polarization is increasingly shaping democratic competition across Europe. While often perceived to be negative, polarization can be an effective remedy against voter disengagement. This paper investigates two distinct, but often conflated mechanisms, which could explain why polarization leads to mobilization. Spatial polarization of parties diversifies electoral options at the ballot, while affective polarization mobilizes based on emotional considerations. This article then shows the link between polarization and turnout across 22 European countries. The results are complemented by a difference-in-differences analysis of German local elections. However, voting results alone do not inform about the mechanism at play. Survey data is used to show that negative affect appears to be the main driver of voter participation. Party polarization thus has ambivalent consequences for democracies: It mobilizes the electorate, but its effect is driven by negative emotions.
政党制度的两极分化会动员选民吗?两极分化正在日益影响整个欧洲的民主竞争。虽然两极分化通常被认为是负面的,但它可以成为防止选民脱离接触的有效补救措施。本文研究了两种不同但经常混为一谈的机制,这可以解释为什么两极分化会导致动员。政党的空间两极分化使投票中的选举选择多样化,而情感两极分化则基于情感考虑而动员起来。这篇文章展示了22个欧洲国家的两极分化与投票率之间的联系。对德国地方选举的差异分析补充了这一结果。然而,投票结果本身并不能说明正在发挥作用的机制。调查数据表明,负面影响似乎是选民参与的主要驱动因素。因此,政党两极分化对民主国家产生了矛盾的后果:它动员了选民,但其影响是由负面情绪驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Fairness and Support for Populist Parties 公平与对民粹主义政党的支持
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193013
Sung In Kim, Peter A. Hall
On the premise that issues of fairness are important to voting behavior but often unrecognized, we explore how feelings of unfairness increase support for populist parties. We distinguish personal unfairness, the view that one’s own economic situation is unfair, from social unfairness, the view that the economic situation of others in society is unfair. Based on findings in psychology, we argue that uncertainties associated with the transition to a globalized knowledge economy heighten people’s feelings of personal unfairness and find empirical support for that contention. We develop arguments about why feelings of personal unfairness should increase support for the populist right and feelings about social unfairness should increase support for the populist left and find empirical support for them. Our results contribute to explanations for why people vote for the populist right rather than the left and underline the roles that uncertainty and issues of fairness play in electoral politics.
在公平问题对投票行为很重要但往往未被承认的前提下,我们探讨了不公平感如何增加对民粹主义政党的支持。我们将个人的不公平,即认为自己的经济状况不公平的观点,与社会的不公平区分开来,即认为社会中其他人的经济状况是不公平的。基于心理学的研究结果,我们认为,与向全球化知识经济转型相关的不确定性会加剧人们对个人不公平的感受,并为这一论点找到了实证支持。我们提出了这样的论点,即为什么个人不公平的感觉应该增加对民粹主义右翼的支持,而社会不公平的感受应该增加对民粹左翼的支持,并为他们找到实证支持。我们的研究结果有助于解释为什么人们投票给民粹主义右翼而不是左翼,并强调了不确定性和公平问题在选举政治中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Studies
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