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Chiefs’ Endorsements and Voter Behavior 州长的支持和选民行为
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194916
Sarah Brierley, George Kwaku Ofosu
Traditional leaders can influence electoral outcomes. We designed an experiment to investigate why public endorsements by chiefs affect voters—and which types of voters they influence. Chiefs have incentives to prefer politicians who will promote local development, and can use endorsements to sway elections accordingly. We argue that voters often interpret chiefs’ endorsements as a signal of candidate quality. To assess this argument, we exposed voters to real endorsements made by chiefs during Ghana’s 2020 presidential election. We show that endorsements impact the vote choice of undecided voters. Consistent with a signaling mechanism, respondents exposed to chiefs’ rationale for endorsing a candidate were no more likely to vote for the endorsed candidate than those who only heard chiefs’ approval of a candidate. Further, treated respondents hold higher evaluations of the endorsed candidate on multiple dimensions of candidate quality. Our results suggest that chiefs influence voters through a non-coercive mechanism, which has positive implications for accountability.
传统领导人可以影响选举结果。我们设计了一个实验来调查为什么酋长们的公开支持会影响选民,以及他们会影响哪一类选民。酋长们有动机偏爱那些能促进当地发展的政治家,并可以利用支持来影响选举。我们认为,选民经常将酋长的支持解读为候选人素质的信号。为了评估这一论点,我们在加纳2020年总统选举期间向选民展示了酋长们的真实支持。我们表明,支持影响未决定选民的投票选择。与信号机制一致的是,与那些只听到酋长批准候选人的人相比,听到酋长支持候选人的理由的受访者并不更有可能投票给被支持的候选人。此外,接受治疗的受访者在候选人素质的多个维度上对认可的候选人持有更高的评价。我们的研究结果表明酋长通过非强制性机制影响选民,这对问责制具有积极意义。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s Rights and Misperceived Gender Norms Under Authoritarianism 威权主义下的妇女权利与性别规范误解
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193010
Carolyn Barnett
Evidence from democracies shows that making laws more egalitarian can increase individuals’ perceptions that others hold egalitarian views. How do citizens in authoritarian regimes that promote women’s rights perceive public opinion on gender issues? While regime actions and narratives could increase perceptions that egalitarian attitudes are widespread, the disconnect between policy and public preferences could inhibit the expressive power of law to alter perceived norms. Drawing on original surveys and qualitative evidence from Morocco, an important case of de jure advances in women’s rights, I find that Moroccans tend to overestimate others’ embrace of patriarchal attitudes on gender issues. The tendency to misperceive conservatism spans demographic categories and is especially pronounced among men. I argue that citizens’ awareness that policy processes are divorced from electoral accountability and the raised salience of conservative opposition during reform processes can reinforce perceived conservatism, even as women’s rights advance.
来自民主国家的证据表明,制定更加平等的法律可以增加个人对其他人持平等主义观点的看法。在提倡妇女权利的专制政权中,公民如何看待公众对性别问题的看法?虽然政权的行动和叙述可能会增加人们对平等主义态度普遍存在的看法,但政策与公众偏好之间的脱节可能会抑制法律改变感知规范的表达能力。根据摩洛哥的原始调查和定性证据,我发现摩洛哥人倾向于高估他人对性别问题的男权态度。摩洛哥是妇女权利在法律上取得进步的重要案例。误解保守主义的倾向跨越了各个人口类别,在男性中尤为明显。我认为,公民意识到政策过程与选举问责制脱节,以及改革过程中保守派反对派的突出表现,可能会强化人们眼中的保守主义,即使在妇女权利取得进展的同时。
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引用次数: 0
The Holocaust, the Socialization of Victimhood and Outgroup Political Attitudes in Israel 大屠杀、受害者社会化与以色列的排外政治态度
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194068
Carly Wayne, Taylor J. Damann, Shani Fachter
How does historical victimization and its memorialization impact present-day outgroup attitudes in conflict-riven societies? This study explores this question using a survey experiment with a representative sample of 2000 Jewish Israelis—half of whom are direct descendants of Holocaust survivors—and a content analysis of 98 state-approved school textbooks, examining how histories of victimization become socialized and shape political attitudes. We find that, in Israel, family victimization during the Holocaust plays surprisingly little role in shaping present-day attitudes toward outgroups. Rather, perceived historical victimization of the Jewish and Israeli people is broadly socialized among the Israeli public and is a stronger predictor of outgroup (in)tolerance. These findings shed light on the power of societal victimhood narratives—even in the absence of personal family histories of victimization—to shape political attitudes in conflict contexts, with long-term implications for intergroup cooperation and conflict.
在冲突撕裂的社会中,历史受害及其纪念如何影响当今的群体外态度?这项研究通过对2000名犹太裔以色列人(其中一半是大屠杀幸存者的直系后裔)的代表性样本进行的调查实验,以及对98本国家批准的学校教科书的内容分析,探讨了受害历史是如何社会化和形成政治态度的。我们发现,在以色列,大屠杀期间的家庭受害在塑造当今对外来群体的态度方面几乎没有起到什么作用。相反,犹太和以色列人民的历史受害在以色列公众中得到了广泛的社会化,是群体外宽容的有力预测因素。这些发现揭示了社会受害者叙事——即使在没有个人受害家庭史的情况下——在冲突背景下塑造政治态度的力量,对群体间合作和冲突具有长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
Collective Action Infrastructure: The Downstream Effects of Urban Neighborhood Organizing 集体行动基础设施:城市邻里组织的下游效应
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193018
Kaitlyn Chriswell, Alyssa Huberts
What explains variation in neighborhood problem-solving? We argue that collective action infrastructure—place-based connections, organizations, knowledge, and practices formed while organizing—can reduce the costs of local collective action, even in communities without preexisting social and civic organizations. We adapt theories from the social movements literature about mobilizing structures and personal networks to the neighborhood context and propose that, even absent preexisting structures, an initial act of organizing in the face of a salient problem can itself facilitate future organizing. In contrast to expectations that local organizations will disband quickly upon achieving their initial goal, we argue that, because neighborhood problem-solving involves fixed costs and overlapping constituencies, local organizing infrastructure is often repurposable across issue areas. Observational data, a natural experiment, and a survey experiment from an online survey of residents across Mexico City demonstrate these downstream effects of organizing, even across unrelated issues.
是什么解释了邻里解决问题的差异?我们认为,集体行动基础设施——在组织过程中形成的基于地点的联系、组织、知识和实践——可以降低当地集体行动的成本,即使在没有预先存在的社会和公民组织的社区也是如此。我们将社会运动文献中关于动员结构和个人网络的理论改编为社区背景,并提出,即使没有预先存在的结构,面对突出问题的最初组织行为本身也可以促进未来的组织。与当地组织在实现最初目标后迅速解散的预期相反,我们认为,由于社区解决问题涉及固定成本和重叠的选区,当地组织基础设施通常可以跨问题领域重新调整用途。观测数据、一项自然实验和一项针对墨西哥城居民的在线调查的调查实验证明了组织的这些下游影响,即使是在不相关的问题上。
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引用次数: 0
The Human Costs of the War on Drugs. Attitudes Towards Militarization of Security in Mexico 禁毒战争的人力成本。对墨西哥安全军事化的态度
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231192056
Juan Masullo, Davide Morisi
Citizens in multiple crime-ridden countries strongly support the militarization of security—that is, placing the military in charge of traditional policing duties. Yet, we know little about the determinants of such support. Do people approve of militarization even in the face of human fatalities? We explore this question in the context of Mexico’s “war on drugs.” In three experimental studies, we manipulate the presence of human costs in a military operation against a drug lord and present arguments either justifying or condemning these costs. We consistently find that, even in successful operations, support for militarization decreases when military operations cause civilian casualties, but not when the victims are members of drug cartels. This finding holds for both respondents who have been victims of cartel-related violence and those who have not. Arguments that justify these costs as helping to achieve the end goal of eradicating organized crime increase support. These findings shed light on the public opinion side of the militarization of security debate, and have important implications for security policy reform and democratic politics.
在多个犯罪猖獗的国家,公民强烈支持安全军事化——也就是说,让军队负责传统的警务职责。然而,我们对这种支持的决定因素知之甚少。即使面对死亡,人们也会赞成军事化吗?我们在墨西哥“毒品战争”的背景下探讨这个问题。在三项实验研究中,我们操纵了针对毒枭的军事行动中人员成本的存在,并提出了证明或谴责这些成本的论点。我们一贯发现,即使在成功的行动中,当军事行动造成平民伤亡时,对军事化的支持也会减少,但当受害者是贩毒集团成员时则不会。这一发现既适用于曾经遭受过与卡特尔有关的暴力的受害者,也适用于没有遭受过暴力的受害者。认为这些费用有助于实现根除有组织犯罪的最终目标的论点增加了支持。这些发现揭示了安全军事化辩论的公众舆论一面,并对安全政策改革和民主政治具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of Political Participation: The Role of Partisanship, Identity, and Incentives in Mobilizing Zambian Citizens 政治参与的驱动因素:党派、身份和激励在动员赞比亚公民中的作用
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194064
Prisca Jöst, Matthias Krönke, Sarah J. Lockwood, Ellen Lust
Scholars and policymakers widely view identity as a key driver of African citizens’ political engagement. In doing so, however, they have emphasized ethnicity and largely sidelined other identities, including gender, local origin, shared residency, and partisanship. In this paper, we explore which identities drive political engagement and why they do so. We employ an original survey experiment that includes various identities and other incentives that may drive citizens’ participation around Zambia’s 2021 national elections. We find that partisanship most influences individuals’ stated willingness to campaign for a candidate or meet with an MP, while ethnicity and social incentives play less significant roles. Finally, we explore the mechanisms underpinning these results and find that citizens anticipate sanctions if they fail to support a co-partisan but not a co-ethnic candidate. These findings have important implications for understanding political engagement and democratic development throughout the region.
学者和政策制定者普遍认为,身份认同是非洲公民政治参与的关键驱动因素。然而,在这样做的过程中,他们强调了种族,而在很大程度上忽略了其他身份,包括性别、本地血统、共同居住地和党派关系。在本文中,我们探讨了哪些身份驱动政治参与以及为什么会这样做。我们采用了一项原始调查实验,其中包括各种身份和其他激励措施,这些措施可能会推动公民参与赞比亚2021年全国选举。我们发现,党派关系对个人为候选人竞选或会见议员的意愿影响最大,而种族和社会激励作用较小。最后,我们探讨了支撑这些结果的机制,并发现如果公民不支持共同党派而不是共同种族的候选人,他们预计会受到制裁。这些发现对于理解整个地区的政治参与和民主发展具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Candidate Debates and Partisan Divisions Evidence From Malawi’s 2019 Presidential Elections 候选人辩论和党派分歧来自马拉维2019年总统选举的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231193016
Eric Kramon
Candidate debates are increasingly organized during elections in democracies and electoral autocracies. How do debates impact partisan divisions and preferences in these contexts? One theoretical perspective suggests that debates should amplify these preferences and divisions, while another implies debates should attenuate them. This paper evaluates these expectations by studying presidential debates organized during Malawi’s May 2019 elections. With an experiment and national panel survey, the paper provides evidence consistent with attenuation: debate watchers were substantially more likely to vote across partisan lines (cross-party voting), became more favorable toward out-partisan candidates, and became less favorable toward co-partisans. Suggestive evidence on causal mechanisms shows that these effects were driven by policy persuasion and debates’ impact on perceptions of the candidates’ policies and qualities. Results advance debates about information processing, campaign effects, and voting behavior in new democracies and electoral autocracies, and have implications for electoral institutions’ impact on partisan divisions.
在民主国家和选举独裁国家的选举期间,候选人辩论越来越多地组织起来。在这种情况下,辩论如何影响党派分歧和偏好?一种理论观点认为,辩论应该扩大这些偏好和分歧,而另一种观点则暗示辩论应该削弱它们。本文通过研究马拉维2019年5月选举期间组织的总统辩论来评估这些期望。通过一项实验和全国小组调查,该论文提供了与衰减一致的证据:辩论观察者更倾向于跨党派投票(跨党派投票),对党派外的候选人更有利,对共同党派的候选人则不那么有利。因果机制的暗示性证据表明,这些影响是由政策说服和辩论对候选人政策和素质的影响所驱动的。结果推动了关于新民主国家和选举独裁国家的信息处理、竞选效果和投票行为的辩论,并对选举机构对党派分裂的影响产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s Representation and Corruption: Evidence From Local Audits in Mexico 妇女代表权与腐败:来自墨西哥地方审计的证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194063
Gustavo Guajardo, Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer
Whether corruption leads to the election of women and whether increased women’s representation leads to lower levels of corruption are two questions with answers that remain uncertain and context-dependent. We explore the case of Mexico and theorize that three factors—gender stereotypes, demands for the inclusion of women, and expectations of accountability—condition the relationship between women’s representation and corruption. We hypothesize that given the features of the Mexican system, revelations of corruption should lead to the election of women and women should not be less corrupt than men in office. Leveraging an original dataset of close to 20 years of municipal audits to mayors, we find supporting evidence. The occurrence of audits and recent revelations of corruption increase the likelihood of women being elected and municipalities led by women report no fewer irregularities as compared to those led by men.
腐败是否会导致妇女当选,以及妇女代表人数的增加是否会导致腐败程度的降低,这两个问题的答案仍然不确定,取决于具体情况。我们探讨了墨西哥的案例,并推断出三个因素——性别刻板印象、对包容女性的要求和对问责制的期望——决定了女性代表性与腐败之间的关系。我们假设,鉴于墨西哥体制的特点,腐败的揭露应该导致女性的选举,女性的腐败程度不应该低于在职男性。利用对市长进行近20年市政审计的原始数据集,我们找到了支持性证据。审计的发生和最近揭露的腐败行为增加了妇女当选的可能性,妇女领导的市政当局报告的违规行为与男子领导的市政机构相比并不减少。
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引用次数: 0
Do Women Prefer In-Group Police Officers? Survey and Experimental Evidence From India 女性更喜欢团体警察吗?印度的调查和实验证据
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194070
Nirvikar Jassal, Sharon Barnhardt
Several nations have enacted gender reforms in policing, many of which are premised on the notion that women favor female officers, especially in the context of tackling violence against women (VAW). We investigate this topic in India. Evidence from the first nationally representative survey on policing ( N ≈ 15,000) demonstrates high levels of bias against policewomen, including among women and VAW complainants. To estimate the causal effect of police gender on officer evaluations, we design an unusual video experiment with assistance from the news corporation New Delhi Television ( N ≈ 1000). We find that policewomen are not generally preferred to policemen, and citizens have significantly unfavorable attitudes toward female officers when seen tackling VAW rather than non-VAW cases. These negative ratings are driven by female respondents. We highlight certain context-specific explanations and note that the manner in which policewomen are typecast may undercut the positive implications associated with representation. Our study is an example of shared identity increasing mistrust, and it expands the discussion about citizens using ascriptive characteristics to make inferences about politicians to include front-line bureaucrats like police officers.
几个国家已经实施了警务中的性别改革,其中许多改革的前提是妇女有利于女性警官,特别是在解决暴力侵害妇女行为的背景下。我们在印度调查这个话题。第一次具有全国代表性的警务调查(N≈15000)的证据表明,对女警察的偏见程度很高,包括在妇女和暴力侵害妇女行为投诉人中。为了估计警察性别对警官评价的因果影响,我们在新德里电视台的协助下设计了一个不同寻常的视频实验(N≈1000)。我们发现,女警察通常不比警察更受欢迎,当看到处理暴力侵害妇女案件而不是非暴力侵害妇女的案件时,公民对女警察的态度明显不利。这些负面评价是由女性受访者推动的。我们强调了某些特定背景的解释,并注意到女警察的定型方式可能会削弱与代表性相关的积极影响。我们的研究是一个共同身份增加不信任的例子,它扩大了关于公民使用描述性特征对政客进行推断的讨论,将警察等一线官僚也包括在内。
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引用次数: 1
Sanctuaries or Battlegrounds? State Penetration in Places of Worship, University Campuses, and State Bureaucracy for Pro-Government Mobilization: Evidence from Iran (2015–2019) 避难所还是战场?国家渗透到宗教场所、大学校园和国家官僚机构以动员亲政府:来自伊朗的证据(2015-2019)
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-08-18 DOI: 10.1177/00104140231194914
S. Khani, M. Kadivar
What factors shape different levels of pro-government mobilization in authoritarian regimes? The existing literature has considered the threat of anti-regime protests as the primary driver of pro-government mobilization. While we confirm this finding in the literature, we argue that the regime’s organizational infrastructure significantly contributes to pro-regime mobilization. We identify places of worship, university campuses, and state bureaucracy as three main sites where states could extend their organizations for pro-government mobilization. Previous scholarship has considered universities and places of worship as free spaces for oppositional activities, but we argue that states might try to penetrate these sectors to extend their organizational reach. The statistical analyses of our original data on pro-government mobilization in Iran from 2015 to 2019 at the district level ( n = 429) provide robust support for this argument.
是什么因素塑造了专制政权中不同程度的亲政府动员?现有文献认为反政府抗议的威胁是亲政府动员的主要驱动因素。虽然我们在文献中证实了这一发现,但我们认为,政权的组织基础设施对支持政权的动员有重大贡献。我们确定礼拜场所、大学校园和国家官僚机构是三个主要场所,各州可以在这些场所扩展其组织,动员亲政府。以前的学者认为大学和宗教场所是反对派活动的自由空间,但我们认为,国家可能会试图渗透到这些部门,以扩大其组织范围。我们对2015年至2019年伊朗地区一级亲政府动员的原始数据(n = 429)进行了统计分析,为这一论点提供了有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Studies
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