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Online Probabilistic Load Forecasts Considering Data Gaps 考虑数据缺口的在线概率负荷预测
IF 5.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.06300
Pengfei Zhao;Weihao Hu;Di Cao;Longcheng Dai;Qi Huang;Zhe Chen
Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction. This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date (when power is consumed) and when measurement values are obtained. To this end, this letter proposes an online learning-based probabilistic load forecasting method considering the impact of the data gap. Specifically, an adaptive ensemble backpropagation-enabled online quantile regression algorithm is developed to optimize the parameters of the attention network recursively using the newly obtained load observations. To further improve the reliability and sharpness of prediction intervals under significant data gaps, we introduce an online interval calibration technique. The proposed online learning method allows us to adaptively capture the dynamic changes in load patterns and alleviate the information lags caused by data gaps. Comparative tests utilizing real-world datasets reveal the superiority of the proposed method.
现有的负荷预测方法通常假设最近的负荷数据可用于预测。这与实际情况不符,因为流量日期(功率消耗时)与测量值之间存在时间差距。为此,本文提出了一种考虑数据间隙影响的基于在线学习的概率负荷预测方法。具体而言,提出了一种自适应集成反向传播在线分位数回归算法,利用新获得的负载观测值对注意力网络参数进行递归优化。为了进一步提高显著数据缺口下预测区间的可靠性和清晰度,我们引入了一种在线区间校准技术。提出的在线学习方法使我们能够自适应地捕捉负载模式的动态变化,并减轻数据间隙引起的信息滞后。利用真实世界数据集的对比测试揭示了所提出方法的优越性。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigating SSR of Series-Compensated DFIG Wind Farms Based on Cascaded High-Gain State and Perturbation Observers 基于级联高增益状态和扰动观测器的串联补偿DFIG风电场SSR缓解
IF 5.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.02520
Xuelei Feng;Tianhao Wen;Xiaohan Liu;Yang Liu;Q. H. Wu
This paper proposes a novel cascaded high-gain state and perturbation observer (CHGSPO)-based feedback linearization control (FLC) strategy for mitigating the sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) caused by the interactions between the series capacitor and doubly-fed induction generator-based wind farms (DFIGWFs). The CHGSPO is designed to estimate both the state and nonlinear perturbations of the series-compensated DFIGWF system. The nonlinear perturbation contains the disturbance originated from SSR, nonlinearities and uncertainties of the system model. The estimated state and perturbations are used by the FLC to eliminate the nonlinearities of the system and realize complete decoupling control of the DFIGWF. Additionally, the FLC effectively suppresses oscillatory signals detected by the CHGSPO. The proposed CHGSPO-based FLC exhibits remarkable robustness against uncertainties and external disturbances. The results of modal analysis and time domain simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy in SSR mitigation of the series-compensated DFIGWF system.
本文提出了一种新的基于级联高增益状态和摄动观测器(CHGSPO)的反馈线性化控制(FLC)策略,用于缓解串联电容器与双馈感应发电机风电场(DFIGWFs)之间相互作用引起的次同步谐振(SSR)。CHGSPO被设计用于估计串联补偿DFIGWF系统的状态和非线性扰动。非线性扰动包括由SSR引起的扰动、系统模型的非线性和不确定性。FLC利用估计的状态和扰动消除了系统的非线性,实现了DFIGWF的完全解耦控制。此外,FLC有效地抑制了CHGSPO检测到的振荡信号。所提出的基于chgspo的FLC对不确定性和外部干扰具有显著的鲁棒性。模态分析和时域仿真结果验证了所提控制策略对串联补偿DFIGWF系统的SSR抑制效果。
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引用次数: 0
Semi-Implicit Continuous Newton Method for Power Flow Analysis 潮流分析的半隐式连续牛顿法
IF 5.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.05770
Ruizhi Yu;Wei Gu;Yijun Xu;Shuai Lu;Suhan Zhang
As an effective emulator of ill-conditioned power flow, continuous Newton methods (CNMs) have been extensively investigated using explicit and implicit numerical integration algorithms. However, explicit CNMs often suffer from non-convergence due to their limited stability region, while implicit CNMs require additional iterative loops to solve nonlinear equations. To address this, we propose a semi-implicit version of CNM. We formulate the power flow equations as a set of differential algebraic equations (DAEs), and solve the DAEs with the stiffly accurate Rosenbrock type method (SARM). The proposed method succeeds the numerical robustness from the implicit CNM framework while prevents the iterative solution of nonlinear systems, hence revealing higher convergence speed and computation efficiency. We develop a novel 4-stage, 3rd-order hyper-stable SARM with an embedded 2nd-order formula for adaptive step size control. This design enhances convergence through damping adjustment. Case studies on ill-conditioned systems verify the alleged performance. An algorithm extension for MATPOWER is made available on Github for benchmarking.
连续牛顿法作为一种有效的病态潮流仿真方法,利用显式和隐式数值积分算法得到了广泛的研究。然而,显式cnm由于其稳定区域有限,往往存在不收敛的问题,而隐式cnm需要额外的迭代循环来求解非线性方程。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了CNM的半隐式版本。我们将潮流方程表示为微分代数方程(DAEs),并使用刚性精确Rosenbrock型方法(SARM)求解DAEs。该方法继承了隐式CNM框架的数值鲁棒性,同时避免了非线性系统的迭代求解,具有较高的收敛速度和计算效率。我们开发了一种新颖的四阶三阶超稳定SARM,该SARM具有自适应步长控制的嵌入二阶公式。本设计通过阻尼调节增强收敛性。对病态系统的案例研究验证了所谓的性能。在Github上提供了MATPOWER的算法扩展,用于基准测试。
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引用次数: 0
Suppression to Subsequent Commutation Failure of UHVDC in Hierarchical Connection Mode with Estimated Equivalence of Post-fault of AC Grids 基于交流电网故障后等效估计的分层连接方式下特高压直流继发换相故障抑制
IF 5.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2023.09570
Shenghu Li;Yikai Li
For the ultra HVDC (UHVDC) with the hierarchical connection mode at the inverter side, considering the change of the Thevenin equivalent parameters (TEP) of post-fault AC grid, a coordinated control strategy to the subsequent commutation failure (SCF) at both layers is newly proposed. The originality of this work is manifested in three aspects. 1) The mechanism of the SCF at the fault layer is newly found by deriving the analytical expression of the extinction angle with the TEP, and that at the non-fault layer is newly found by the voltage-time area theory with the DC current coupling. 2) An estimation model for the TEPs of two AC grids at the inverter side is proposed with the post-fault quantities. To address the random noise and inaccurate measurement data, an adaptive robust least squares method based on the median principle is proposed to solve the TEP model. 3) A coordinated control strategy with the estimated TEP is proposed to compensate for the extinction angle at the fault layer and limit the DC current at the non-fault layer, thus suppressing the SCF. The simulation results verify the suppression effect of the proposed control on the SCF under different fault conditions.
针对逆变端采用分层连接方式的特高压直流(UHVDC)系统,考虑故障后交流电网泰韦宁等效参数(TEP)的变化,提出了一种两层对后续换相故障(SCF)的协调控制策略。这部作品的独创性体现在三个方面。(1)用TEP推导消光角解析表达式,得到了故障层SCF的新机理;用直流电流耦合的电压-时间-面积理论,得到了非故障层SCF的新机理。2)提出了基于故障后量的逆变器侧两个交流电网tep估计模型。针对随机噪声和测量数据不准确的问题,提出了一种基于中值原理的自适应鲁棒最小二乘法来求解TEP模型。3)提出了一种基于估计TEP的协调控制策略,补偿故障层的消光角,限制非故障层的直流电流,从而抑制SCF。仿真结果验证了在不同故障条件下所提出的控制方法对SCF的抑制效果。
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引用次数: 0
Credibility Copula-Based Robust Multistage Plan for Industrial Parks Under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainties 外生与内生不确定性下基于可信度copula的工业园区稳健多阶段规划
IF 6.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.09120
Zehao Shi;Jiajia Chen;Yanxin Wang;Yanlei Zhao;Bingyin Xu
The integration of photovoltaic and energy storage in industrial parks enhances economic benefits. However, uncertainties in photovoltaic output and future electricity prices pose challenges to optimal configuration. To address these issues, this paper develops a credibility copula-based robust multistage plan. Firstly, it addresses endogenous uncertainties in electricity pricing and exogenous uncertainties in photovoltaic output. Meanwhile, the copula function is used to couple endogenous uncertainties of the time-of-use, on-grid and demand power prices. Secondly, based on credibility theory, a fuzzy chance constraint model of endogenous uncertainties of future electricity prices and exogenous uncertainties of the PV output is derived. Finally, the method transforms fuzzy chance constraints into deterministic robust optimization through clear equivalence classes. Simulation analyses using data from an industrial park validate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
产业园区光伏与储能的结合,提高了经济效益。然而,光伏发电产量和未来电价的不确定性对优化配置提出了挑战。为了解决这些问题,本文提出了一种基于可信度copula的鲁棒多阶段计划。首先,解决了电价的内生不确定性和光伏输出的外生不确定性。同时,利用copula函数对分时电价、上网电价和需求电价的内生不确定性进行耦合。其次,基于可信度理论,推导了未来电价内生不确定性和光伏发电输出外生不确定性的模糊机会约束模型;最后,通过明确的等价类,将模糊机会约束转化为确定性鲁棒优化。利用某工业园区的数据进行仿真分析,验证了该方法的适用性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Wide-Area Active Frequency Control with Multi-Step-Size MPC 广域主动频率控制与多步长MPC
IF 6.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.06280
Yan Xie;Shiying Ma;Jiakai Shen;Xiaojun Tang;Jianmiao Ren;Liwen Zheng
The construction of UHV AC/DC hybrid power grids and the integration of large-scale renewable energy have led to significant frequency stability issues. To enhance the frequency regulation capacity within areas and fully utilize the mutual supportive capacity among areas, active frequency control (AFC) theory has been proposed and developed based on the concept of active feed-forward control. However, existing AFC methods have limitations in computational solutions and control effects in large-scale, wide-area interconnected power systems. To address these shortcomings, this paper proposes an improved AFC method based on multi-step-size model predictive control (MSS-MPC). Through multi-step-size discretization, an improved model predictive control algorithm for AFC is derived based on the iterative solution of the multi-step-size linear quadratic regulator model, which ensures control accuracy through precise prediction and enhances the control performance through additional prediction. Based on the collaboration of two-level dispatching agencies and the consideration of differences in control objectives among areas at different stages, an improved three-stage AFC strategy is proposed, which aims to suppress additional frequency disturbances after control model switching by proposing the active-passive switching strategy. Case studies demonstrate that, compared with the existing AFC method, the proposed AFC method with the MSS-MPC algorithm has a better control effect and better computational performance.
特高压交/直流混合电网的建设和大规模可再生能源的并网带来了显著的频率稳定性问题。为了提高区域内的频率调节能力,充分利用区域间的相互支持能力,在主动前馈控制的基础上提出并发展了主动频率控制理论。然而,现有的AFC方法在大规模广域互联电力系统的计算解和控制效果方面存在局限性。针对这些不足,本文提出了一种基于多步长模型预测控制(MSS-MPC)的改进AFC方法。通过多步长离散化,基于多步长线性二次型调节器模型的迭代解,推导出一种改进的AFC模型预测控制算法,通过精确预测保证控制精度,通过附加预测提高控制性能。基于两级调度机构之间的协作,考虑不同阶段区域间控制目标的差异,提出了一种改进的三阶段AFC策略,通过提出主动式无源切换策略,抑制控制模型切换后的额外频率干扰。实例研究表明,与现有的AFC方法相比,本文提出的基于MSS-MPC算法的AFC方法具有更好的控制效果和更好的计算性能。
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引用次数: 0
Voltage Support Capacity Improvement for Wind Farms with Reactive Power Substitution Control 无功替代控制下风电场电压支持能力的改进
IF 6.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.07190
Yuegong Li;Guorong Zhu;Jianghua Lu;Hua Geng
Generally, voltage support at the point of common coupling (PCC) of a wind farm is achieved through centralized static var generators (SVGs). Since the reactive power requirements occupy their capacity in a steady state, the reactive power support capacity of the SVG is limited during high voltage ride through (HVRT) or low voltage ride through (LVRT). While wind turbines can provide voltage support in accordance with the grid code, their responses are usually delayed due to communication and transmission lags. To enhance the dynamic performance of wind farms during fault ride-through, a reactive power substitution (RPS) control strategy is proposed in this paper. In a steady state, this RPS control method preferentially utilizes the remaining capacity of wind turbines to substitute for the output of the SVG. Considering differences in terminal voltage characteristics and operating conditions, this RPS control method employs a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to ensure that wind turbines can provide their optimal reactive power support capacity. When the grid voltage swells or drops, the SVG has a sufficient reactive power reserve to support the grid quickly. This paper utilizes a regional power grid incorporating two wind farms connected to different buses as a case study to validate this RPS control strategy.
通常,风电场的共耦合点(PCC)的电压支持是通过集中式静态无功发电机(svg)来实现的。由于无功功率需求在稳定状态下占据其容量,因此SVG在高压穿越(HVRT)或低压穿越(LVRT)期间的无功支持能力受到限制。虽然风力涡轮机可以根据电网规范提供电压支持,但由于通信和传输滞后,它们的响应通常会延迟。为了提高风电场在故障穿越过程中的动态性能,提出了一种无功替代控制策略。在稳态下,该RPS控制方法优先利用风力发电机的剩余容量替代SVG的输出。考虑到终端电压特性和运行条件的差异,该RPS控制方法采用粒子群优化(PSO)算法,保证风电机组能够提供最优的无功支持能力。当电网电压上升或下降时,SVG具有足够的无功储备来快速支持电网。本文利用一个区域电网,将两个风电场连接到不同的母线作为案例研究来验证这种RPS控制策略。
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引用次数: 0
Low-Carbon Joint Planning for Distribution Network Considering Carbon Emission Flow and Uncertainties from Photovoltaic Power Generation 考虑光伏发电碳排放流和不确定性的配电网低碳联合规划
IF 5.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2023.08850
Yanlin Li;Zhigang Lu;Jiangfeng Zhang;Xiaoqiang Guo;Xueping Li;Xiangxing Kong;Jiangyong Zhang
In order to cope with the global environmental crisis caused by energy generation and achieve carbon neutrality, it is imperative to promote a new power system dominated by renewable energy sources (RESs). This paper focuses on the uncertainty of RESs and the distribution characteristics of carbon emission flows (CEFs), and studies the low-carbon operation and power system planning problem. Firstly, this paper extends the uncertainty of RES to the meteorological field and establishes meteorological robust constraints of photovoltaic (PV) generation. Based on the CEF theory, the carbon transmission trajectory is accurately delineated to improve the operation of power system. Considering further constraints from the power flow, CEF, and component operation characteristics of the active distribution network (ADN), this paper formulates a low-carbon joint planning model of ADN with PV, battery energy storage system (BESS), and distributed gas generator (DGG), taking into account economy and carbon reduction. In the case study, the low-carbon planning and operation scheme are analyzed in detail across multiple dimensions including time and space. The solution results show that the planning model can effectively leverage the low-carbon performance of PV and BESS, and improve the distribution of CEF. Through case comparison, the model can also efficiently reduce the total cost of the system and enhance carbon emission reduction benefits by 35.10 to 41.04%.
为了应对能源生产带来的全球环境危机,实现碳中和,推动以可再生能源(RESs)为主导的新型电力系统势在必行。本文重点研究了可再生能源系统的不确定性和碳排放流(CEFs)的分布特征,研究了低碳运行和电力系统规划问题。首先,将RES的不确定性扩展到气象领域,建立了光伏发电的气象鲁棒约束。在CEF理论的基础上,准确描绘了碳的输送轨迹,改善了电力系统的运行。进一步考虑有源配电网(ADN)的潮流、CEF和各部件运行特性的约束,在兼顾经济性和减碳性的前提下,建立了与光伏、电池储能系统(BESS)和分布式燃气发电机组(DGG)的ADN低碳联合规划模型。在案例研究中,从时间和空间等多个维度对低碳规划和运营方案进行了详细分析。求解结果表明,该规划模型可以有效地利用光伏和BESS的低碳性能,改善CEF的分布。通过案例对比,该模型还能有效降低系统总成本,提高碳减排效益35.10% ~ 41.04%。
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引用次数: 0
Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns 基于数据序列建模的电力系统因果评价方法及时空因果变化模式
IF 5.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.03030
Qi Chen;Gang Mu;Hongbo Liu;Changgang Wang
The data acquisition technologies used in power systems have been continuously improving, thus laying the solid foundation for data-driven operation analysis of power systems. However, existing methods for analyzing the relationship between operational variables mainly depend on the mathematical model and element parameters of the power system. Therefore, a thorough data-based analysis method is required to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of power system operation, especially for new types of power systems. The causal inference method, which has been successfully applied in many fields, is a powerful tool for investigating the interaction of data variables. In this study, a causal inference method is proposed based on supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data for investigating the spatiotemporal causal relationships in power systems. Initially, a multiple data-sequence regression model is proposed to analyze the relationship of operation data variables. Next, the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) is used to calculate the causal index of the operational variables, and its limitations are analyzed. Furthermore, a new causal index of “full variable amplitude LiNGAM (FVA-LiNGAM)” is proposed by incorporating prior causal direct knowledge and considering the effect of real variable amplitude. Using the FVA-LiNGAM causal index, the causal relationship of operation variables can be investigated with higher spatiotemporal accuracy than that of the original LiNGAM index. Taking a real SCADA data subset of a provincial power system as an example, the validity of the FVA-LiNGAM causal index is verified. The variation patterns in spatiotemporal causality are explored using actual SCADA data sequences. The result shows that there indeed exists some spatiotemporal causality variation patterns between the operating variables of the power system.
电力系统的数据采集技术不断进步,为电力系统的数据驱动运行分析奠定了坚实的基础。然而,现有的分析运行变量之间关系的方法主要依赖于电力系统的数学模型和元件参数。因此,需要一种深入的基于数据的分析方法来研究电力系统运行的时空特征,特别是对于新型电力系统。因果推理方法是研究数据变量间相互作用的有力工具,已成功地应用于许多领域。本文提出了一种基于监控与数据采集(SCADA)数据的因果推理方法,用于研究电力系统的时空因果关系。首先,提出了一种多数据序列回归模型来分析运行数据变量之间的关系。其次,利用线性非高斯无环模型(LiNGAM)计算了操作变量的因果指数,并分析了其局限性。在此基础上,结合先验因果直接知识,考虑实际变幅的影响,提出了一种新的因果指标“全变幅LiNGAM (FVA-LiNGAM)”。利用FVA-LiNGAM因果指数可以比原始LiNGAM指数更准确地考察操作变量之间的因果关系。以某省级电力系统SCADA数据子集为例,验证了FVA-LiNGAM因果指标的有效性。利用实际的SCADA数据序列,探讨了时空因果关系的变化规律。结果表明,电力系统运行变量之间确实存在一定的时空因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
Enhanced Transient Stability Strategy for Grid-Forming Converter Based on Current Limiting 基于限流的变换器暂态稳定性增强策略
IF 6.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.08620
Zhenglong Sun;Zhifeng He;Naiyuan Liu;Rui Zhang;Bo Wang;Guowei Cai
With the sustained increase in the penetration rate of grid-forming (GFM) converters in power systems, problems such as overcurrent and transient instability during system faults have drawn significant attention. This paper proposes an enhanced dynamic dq-axis current-limiting strategy (ED-CLiS) for GFM converters, which improves transient stability across all stages before and after current limiting. First, a dynamic dq-axis current-limiting strategy (D-CLiS) is proposed. This strategy regulates the power angle to prevent it from going out of control during current limiting, which is achieved by controlling the $d$- and $q$-axis current reference values to reshape the ${P}-delta^{prime}$ curve. Additionally, a large reverse acceleration area can induce excessive angle $delta^{prime}$ swings, causing the D-CLiS to be triggered repeatedly and resulting in converter instability after the control exit, even without faults. A reference power control structure (RPCS) is proposed, which suppresses the phenomenon by adjusting the power reference value to control the converter's reverse acceleration area. Finally, the control strategy is verified through simulations.
随着并网变流器在电力系统中的普及率不断提高,系统故障时的过流和暂态失稳等问题引起了人们的广泛关注。本文提出了一种增强的动态dq轴限流策略(ED-CLiS),提高了GFM变换器在限流前后各阶段的暂态稳定性。首先,提出了动态dq轴限流策略(D-CLiS)。该策略通过控制$d$-和$q$-轴电流参考值来重塑${P}-delta^{prime}$曲线,从而调节功率角,防止其在限流过程中失控。此外,大的反向加速度区域会导致过度的角度$delta^{prime}$波动,导致D-CLiS反复触发,导致控制退出后转换器不稳定,即使没有故障。提出了一种参考功率控制结构(RPCS),通过调节功率参考值来控制变换器的反向加速区域来抑制这种现象。最后,通过仿真对控制策略进行了验证。
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引用次数: 0
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CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
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