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Testing rank similarity in the local average treatment effects model 检验局部平均治疗效果模型中的秩相似性
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2114624
J. Kim, Byoung G. Park
Abstract This paper develops a test for the rank similarity condition of the nonseparable instrumental variable quantile regression model using the local average treatment effect model. When the instrument takes more than two values or multiple binary instruments are available, there exist multiple complier groups for which the marginal distributions of potential outcomes are identified. A testable implication is obtained by comparing the distributions of ranks across complier groups. We propose a test procedure in a semiparametric quantile regression specification. We establish the weak convergence of the test statistic and the validity of the bootstrap critical value. We illustrate the test with an empirical example of the effects of fertility on women’s labor supply.
摘要本文利用局部平均治疗效果模型,对不可分离工具变量分位数回归模型的秩相似条件进行了检验。当工具采用两个以上的值或有多个二进制工具可用时,存在多个潜在结果的边际分布被确定的编译器组。通过比较complier组中秩的分布,得到了一个可测试的蕴涵。我们在半参数分位数回归规范中提出了一个测试程序。我们建立了检验统计量的弱收敛性和bootstrap临界值的有效性。我们用一个生育率对妇女劳动力供应影响的实证例子来说明这一检验。
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引用次数: 4
The variances of non-parametric estimates of the cross-sectional distribution of durations 工期横截面分布的非参数估计方差
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-09 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2114623
Maoshan Tian, Huw Dixon
Abstract This paper focuses on the link between non-parametric survival analysis and three distributions. The delta method is applied to derive the variances of the non-parametric estimators of three distributions: the distribution of durations (DD), the cross-sectional distribution of ages (CSA) and the cross-sectional distribution of (completed) durations (CSD). The non-parametric estimator of the the cross-sectional distribution of durations (CSD) has been defined and derived by Dixon (2012) and used in the generalized Taylor price model (GTE) by Dixon and Le Bihan (2012). The Monte Carlo method is applied to evaluate the variances of the estimators of DD and CSD and how their performance varies with sample size and the censoring of data. We apply those estimators to two data sets: the UK CPI micro-price data and waiting-time data from UK hospitals. Both the estimates of the distributions and their variances are calculated. Depending on the empirical results, the estimated variances indicate that the DD and CSD estimators are all significant.
摘要本文重点讨论了非参数生存分析与三种分布之间的联系。应用delta方法推导了三种分布的非参数估计量的方差:持续时间分布(DD)、年龄截面分布(CSA)和(完成的)持续时间截面分布(CSD)。Dixon(2012)定义并推导了持续时间横截面分布(CSD)的非参数估计量,并将其用于Dixon和Le Bihan(2012)的广义泰勒价格模型(GTE)。蒙特卡罗方法用于评估DD和CSD估计量的方差,以及它们的性能如何随样本量和数据截尾而变化。我们将这些估计量应用于两个数据集:英国CPI微观价格数据和英国医院的等待时间数据。计算了分布的估计值及其方差。根据经验结果,估计方差表明DD和CSD估计量都是显著的。
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引用次数: 2
Finite-sample results for lasso and stepwise Neyman-orthogonal Poisson estimators lasso估计和逐步neyman -正交泊松估计的有限样本结果
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2091363
D. Drukker, Di Liu
Abstract High-dimensional models that include many covariates which might potentially affect an outcome are increasingly common. This paper begins by introducing a lasso-based approach and a stepwise-based approach to valid inference for a high-dimensional model. It then discusses several essential extensions to the literature that make the estimators more usable in practice. Finally, it presents Monte Carlo evidence to help applied researchers choose which of several available estimators should be used in practice. The Monte Carlo evidence shows that our extensions to the literature perform well. It also shows that a BIC-stepwise approach performs well for a data-generating process for which the lasso-based approaches and a testing-stepwise approach fail. The Monte Carlo evidence also indicates the BIC-based lasso and plugin-based lasso can produce better inferential results than the ubiquitous CV-based lasso. Easy-to-use Stata commands are available for all the methods that we discuss.
包含许多协变量的高维模型越来越普遍,这些协变量可能会对结果产生潜在影响。本文首先介绍了一种基于套索的方法和一种基于逐步的方法来进行高维模型的有效推理。然后讨论了对文献的几个基本扩展,使估计器在实践中更可用。最后,给出了蒙特卡罗证据,以帮助应用研究人员从几个可用的估计器中选择应该在实践中使用的估计器。蒙特卡罗证据表明,我们对文献的扩展表现良好。它还表明,对于基于套索的方法和测试逐步方法无法实现的数据生成过程,bic -逐步方法表现良好。蒙特卡罗证据还表明,基于bic的套索和基于插件的套索比普遍存在的基于cv的套索能产生更好的推理结果。易于使用的Stata命令可用于我们讨论的所有方法。
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引用次数: 4
Two-step series estimation and specification testing of (partially) linear models with generated regressors 具有生成回归的(部分)线性模型的两步序列估计和规范检验
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-02 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2082169
Yu‐Chin Hsu, Jen-Che Liao, Eric S. Lin
Abstract This paper studies three semiparametric models that are useful and frequently encountered in applied econometric work—a linear and two partially linear specifications with generated regressors, i.e., the regressors that are unobserved, but can be nonparametrically estimated from the data. Our framework allows for generated regressors to appear in linear or nonlinear components of partially linear models. We propose two-step series estimators for the finite-dimensional parameters, establish their -consistency (with sample size n) and asymptotic normality, and provide the asymptotic variance formulae that take into account the estimation error of generated regressors. Moreover, we develop a nonparametric specification test for the models considered. Numerical performances of the proposed estimators and test via simulation experiments and an empirical application illustrate the utility of our approach.
摘要本文研究了三个在应用计量经济学工作中有用且经常遇到的半参数模型——一个线性规范和两个具有生成回归量的部分线性规范,即未观察到的回归量,但可以根据数据进行非参数估计。我们的框架允许生成的回归出现在部分线性模型的线性或非线性分量中。我们提出了有限维参数的两步级数估计,建立了它们的一致性(样本大小为n)和渐近正态性,并给出了考虑生成回归估计误差的渐近方差公式。此外,我们为所考虑的模型开发了一个非参数规范检验。所提出的估计量的数值性能以及通过模拟实验和经验应用进行的测试表明了我们方法的实用性。
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引用次数: 1
Income and democracy: a semiparametric approach 收入与民主:一种半参数方法
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-25 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2091360
Shunan Zhao, Yiguo Sun, S. Kumbhakar
Abstract We examine heterogeneous nonlinear effects of income on democracy using country-level data from 1960 to 2000. Existing studies mainly focused on a linear relationship or restricted nonlinear ones and find mixed findings about the effects of income on democracy. The strong positive cross-country correlation between income and democracy is often found to disappear after controlling country specific fixed effects, although the result varies with different estimation methods and samples. In contrast to previous studies, we apply a flexible semiparametric additive partially linear dynamic panel data model to explore the heterogeneous effects of income on democracy. We assume income is endogenous and it enters in the regression model nonparametrically. Our model specification also allows for different democracy equilibria and adjustment speeds toward equilibria. We propose a nonlinearity test for our model and a penalized sieve minimum distance estimator to solve the ill-posed inverse problem in the semiparametric instrumental variable estimator. The finite sample performance of the proposed test and estimator are evaluated by simulations. In the empirical model, we find that the relationship between income and democracy is nonlinear and it is more complex than a simple inverted U-shape. Specifically, depending on the choice of the democracy measure, income may have positive effects on democracy for low-income countries, negative effects for middle-income countries, and no effects for high-income countries.
本文利用1960年至2000年的国家级数据,研究了收入对民主的异质性非线性影响。现有的研究主要集中在线性关系或有限的非线性关系上,关于收入对民主的影响,研究结果喜忧参半。在控制了特定国家的固定效应后,人们往往发现收入与民主之间强烈的跨国正相关关系消失了,尽管不同的估计方法和样本会产生不同的结果。与以往的研究相比,我们采用了一种灵活的半参数可加性部分线性动态面板数据模型来探索收入对民主的异质性影响。我们假设收入是内生的,它是非参数地进入回归模型。我们的模型规范也允许不同的民主均衡和平衡的调整速度。我们提出了模型的非线性检验和惩罚筛最小距离估计来解决半参数工具变量估计中的不适定逆问题。通过仿真对所提出的测试和估计器的有限样本性能进行了评价。在实证模型中,我们发现收入与民主之间的关系是非线性的,它比简单的倒u型关系更为复杂。具体来说,根据民主衡量标准的选择,收入可能对低收入国家的民主产生积极影响,对中等收入国家的民主产生消极影响,对高收入国家的民主没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Determining the number of factors in constrained factor models via Bayesian information criterion 利用贝叶斯信息准则确定约束因子模型中的因子个数
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-23 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2094539
Jingjie Xiang, Gangzheng Guo, Jiaolong Li
Abstract This paper estimates the number of factors in constrained and partially constrained factor models (Tsai and Tsay, 2010) based on constrained Bayesian information criterion (CBIC). Following Bai and Ng (2002), the estimation of the number of factors depends on the tradeoff between good fit and parsimony, so we first derive the convergence rate of constrained factor estimates under the framework of large cross-sections (N) and large time dimensions (T). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the penalty for overfitting can be a function of N alone, so the BIC form, which does not work in the case of (unconstrained) approximate factor models, consistently estimates the number of factors in constrained factor models. We then conduct Monte Carlo simulations to show that our proposed CBIC has good finite sample performance and outperforms competing methods.
摘要本文基于约束贝叶斯信息准则(CBIC)对约束因子模型和部分约束因子模型(Tsai and Tsay, 2010)中的因子数量进行估计。继Bai和Ng(2002)之后,因子数量的估计取决于良好拟合和简约性之间的权衡,因此我们首先推导了大横截面(N)和大时间维度(T)框架下约束因子估计的收敛率。此外,我们证明了过拟合的惩罚可以是N的函数,因此BIC形式在(无约束)近似因子模型的情况下不起作用,始终如一地估计约束因素模型中的因素数量。然后,我们进行蒙特卡罗模拟,表明我们提出的CBIC具有良好的有限样本性能,并且优于竞争方法。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensively testing linearity hypothesis using the smooth transition autoregressive model 采用平滑过渡自回归模型对线性假设进行综合检验
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-21 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2091713
Dakyung Seong, J. Cho, T. Teräsvirta
Abstract This article examines the null limit distribution of the quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) statistic for testing linearity condition against the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. We explicitly show that the QLR test statistic weakly converges to a functional of a multivariate Gaussian process under the null of linearity, which is done by resolving the issue of identification problem arises in two different ways under the null. In contrast with the Lagrange multiplier test that is widely employed for testing the linearity condition, the proposed QLR statistic has an omnibus power, and thus, it complements the existing testing procedure. We show the empirical relevance of our test by testing the neglected nonlinearity of the US fiscal multipliers and growth rates of US unemployment. These empirical examples demonstrate that the QLR test is useful for detecting the nonlinear structure among economic variables.
摘要本文研究了平滑过渡自回归(STAR)模型检验线性条件的准似然比(QLR)统计量的零极限分布。我们明确地证明了QLR检验统计量在零线性下弱收敛于多元高斯过程的泛函,这是通过解决零线性下两种不同方式产生的识别问题来实现的。与广泛用于检验线性条件的拉格朗日乘数检验相比,所提出的QLR统计量具有综合能力,因此,它补充了现有的检验程序。我们通过检验被忽视的美国财政乘数和美国失业率增长率的非线性来证明我们的检验的经验相关性。这些实例表明,QLR检验对于检测经济变量之间的非线性结构是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
A robust test for serial correlation in panel data models 面板数据模型中序列相关性的稳健性检验
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-15 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2091362
B. Chen
Abstract We consider a new nonparametric test for serial correlation of unknown form in the estimated residuals of a panel regression model, where individual and time effects can be fixed or random, and the panel data can be balanced or unbalanced. Our test is robust against potential weak error cross-sectional dependence and error serial dependence in higher-order moments. This is in contrast to existing tests for serial correlation in panel data models, which assume error components to be cross-sectionally and serially independent. Our test has an asymptotic N(0, 1) distribution under the null hypothesis and is consistent against serial correlation of unknown form. No common alternative is assumed and hence our test allows for substantial inhomogeneity in serial correlation across individuals. A simulation study highlights the merits of the proposed test relative to a variety of existing tests in the literature. We apply the new test to the empirical study of Wolfers on the relationship between unilateral divorce laws and divorce rates and find strong evidence against serial uncorrelatedness even controlling for the fixed effect.
摘要我们考虑了一种新的非参数检验,用于面板回归模型估计残差中未知形式的序列相关性,其中个体和时间效应可以是固定的或随机的,面板数据可以是平衡的或不平衡的。我们的测试对高阶矩中潜在的弱误差截面相关性和误差序列相关性是稳健的。这与面板数据模型中现有的串行相关性测试形成了对比,后者假设误差分量在横截面和串行上是独立的。我们的测试在零假设下具有渐近N(0,1)分布,并且与未知形式的序列相关性一致。没有假设常见的替代方案,因此我们的测试允许个体之间的序列相关性存在显著的不均匀性。一项模拟研究强调了所提出的测试相对于文献中各种现有测试的优点。我们将新的检验应用于Wolfers关于单方面离婚法与离婚率之间关系的实证研究,并发现了强有力的证据来证明连续不可延迟性甚至控制了固定效应。
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引用次数: 0
Rotation group bias and the persistence of misclassification errors in the Current Population Surveys 当前人口调查中轮换组偏倚和误分类错误的持续存在
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-07-12 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2091361
S. Feng, Yingyao Hu, Jiandong Sun
Abstract We develop a general misclassification model to explain the so-called “Rotation Group Bias (RGB)” problem in the Current Population Surveys, where different rotation groups report different labor force statistics. The key insight is that responses to repeated questions in surveys can depend not only on unobserved true values, but also on previous responses to the same questions. Our method provides a framework to understand why unemployment rates in rotation group one are higher than those in other rotation groups in the CPS, without imposing any a priori assumptions on the existence and direction of RGB. Using our method, we provide new estimates of the U.S. unemployment rates, which are much higher than the official series, but lower than previous estimates that ignored persistence in misclassification.
摘要我们开发了一个通用的错误分类模型来解释当前人口调查中所谓的“轮换组偏差(RGB)”问题,即不同的轮换组报告不同的劳动力统计数据。关键的见解是,对调查中重复问题的回答不仅取决于未观察到的真实值,还取决于以前对相同问题的回答。我们的方法提供了一个框架来理解为什么第一轮调组的失业率高于CPS中其他轮调组,而没有对RGB的存在和方向强加任何先验假设。使用我们的方法,我们提供了美国失业率的新估计值,该值远高于官方序列,但低于之前忽略错误分类持续性的估计值。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of a partially linear seemingly unrelated regressions model: application to a translog cost system 部分线性看似不相关回归模型的估计:在超对数成本系统中的应用
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/07474938.2022.2074187
Xin Geng, K. Sun
Abstract This article studies a partially linear seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model to estimate a translog cost system that consists of a partially linear translog cost function and input share equations. The parametric component is estimated via a simple two-step feasible SUR estimation procedure. We show that the resulting estimator achieves root-n convergence and is asymptotically normal. The nonparametric component is estimated with a nonparametric SUR estimator based on the Cholesky decomposition. We show that this estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and more efficient relative to the ones that ignore cross-equation correlation. We emphasize the importance and implication of the choice of square root of the covariance matrix by comparing the Cholesky and Spectral decompositions. A model specification test for parametric functional form is proposed. An Italian banking data set is used to estimate the translog cost system. Results show that marginal effects of risks on cost of production are heterogeneous but increase with risk levels.
摘要本文研究了一个由部分线性超对数成本函数和输入份额方程组成的超对数成本系统的部分线性看似无关回归(SUR)模型。参数分量的估计是通过一个简单的两步可行SUR估计程序。我们证明了所得到的估计量达到根n收敛并且是渐近正态的。利用基于Cholesky分解的非参数SUR估计器对非参数分量进行估计。我们证明了这个估计量是一致的,渐近正态的,并且相对于那些忽略交叉方程相关的估计量更有效。通过比较Cholesky分解和谱分解,我们强调了选择协方差矩阵平方根的重要性和意义。提出了参数函数形式的模型规格检验方法。一个意大利银行数据集被用来估计跨对数成本系统。结果表明,风险对生产成本的边际效应是异质性的,但随着风险水平的增加而增加。
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引用次数: 0
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Econometric Reviews
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