We present a model for the evolution of seawater chemistry and carbon cycling over the Cenozoic forced by changes in global mean temperature, continental weatherability, ocean crust accretion and solid Earth CO2 degassing. The model tracks fluxes from continental silicate and carbonate weathering, seafloor weathering, marine silicate diagenesis, high-temperature hydrothermal circulation and carbonate sediment formation. The carbon system in the ocean is tracked through alkalinity (ALK) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes allowing the entire carbon system to be calculated. The model has 48 parameters that are treated as unknowns, and we use a Bayesian inversion to determine the probable range of parameter values. Reasonable fits to reconstructions of Cenozoic seawater compositions (e.g., Mg, Ca, δ7Li, 87Sr/86Sr) and pCO2 records are achieved. Consistent with other studies that consider the carbon system in seawater, the model results have limited change in seawater DIC and ALK over the Cenozoic. Key results include that the: (i) decrease in pCO2 over the Cenozoic is driven by changing ocean chemistry (increased ratio of ALK to DIC) without a systematic change in the total carbon content of the ocean-atmosphere system, and (ii) CO2 degassing rate and pCO2 are decoupled. These results are inconsistent with commonly used geological carbon cycle models (e.g., GEOCARB, COPSE) but are readily understood in terms of seawater carbon chemistry and carbon cycling. Decreasing the Ca content of seawater at the same time as deepening the carbonate compensation depth requires increasing the carbonate ion concentration in the deep ocean; in the models this results from an increased ratio of ALK to DIC.
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