This study presents comprehensive stakeholder analysis results addressing forecasting challenges for weather-driven energy systems in complex mountainous terrain. Through mixed-methods engagement with 120 practitioners from 50+ organizations across universities, energy providers, and transmission system operators, we quantify implementation priorities and barriers in renewable energy forecasting. Results reveal persistent implementation gaps between stakeholder recognition of forecasting needs and operational deployment. While day-ahead forecasting remains dominant (56% of respondents), extreme weather event management emerges as the critical priority (85% rating), reflecting climate change impacts in mountainous regions. Artificial intelligence integration receives high importance ratings (88%, equivalent to 4.35/5, 0.85 SD) but shows limited operational deployment (35%), primarily due to transparency and validation concerns.
Mountainous terrain-specific meteorological phenomena – including foehn winds, valley circulation systems, and orographic precipitation effects – are identified as forecasting blind spots requiring specialized modelling approaches and physics-informed machine learning integration. Cross-border coordination challenges receive overwhelming stakeholder attention (96% support for standardized protocols), reflecting the reality that atmospheric phenomena and energy flows regularly cross national boundaries in mountainous regions. Based on quantitative priority assessment and qualitative barrier analysis, we develop an evidence-based implementation roadmap addressing immediate needs (standardized warning systems, validation metrics), medium-term development (AI frameworks, cross-border protocols), and long-term transformation (probabilistic integration, automated decision support). The methodology demonstrates effective approaches for bridging research-practice gaps in energy meteorology applications, with findings contributing to understanding of renewable energy forecasting requirements in complex terrain worldwide.
{"title":"Advancing forecasting in mountainous terrain for weather-driven energy systems: Recommendations from a comprehensive stakeholder analysis","authors":"Irene Schicker , Corinna Möhrlen , Anna-Maria Tilg , Lukas Strauss , Florian Mader","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents comprehensive stakeholder analysis results addressing forecasting challenges for weather-driven energy systems in complex mountainous terrain. Through mixed-methods engagement with 120 practitioners from 50+ organizations across universities, energy providers, and transmission system operators, we quantify implementation priorities and barriers in renewable energy forecasting. Results reveal persistent implementation gaps between stakeholder recognition of forecasting needs and operational deployment. While day-ahead forecasting remains dominant (56% of respondents), extreme weather event management emerges as the critical priority (85% rating), reflecting climate change impacts in mountainous regions. Artificial intelligence integration receives high importance ratings (88%, equivalent to 4.35/5, <span><math><mo>±</mo></math></span>0.85 SD) but shows limited operational deployment (35%), primarily due to transparency and validation concerns.</div><div>Mountainous terrain-specific meteorological phenomena – including foehn winds, valley circulation systems, and orographic precipitation effects – are identified as forecasting blind spots requiring specialized modelling approaches and physics-informed machine learning integration. Cross-border coordination challenges receive overwhelming stakeholder attention (96% support for standardized protocols), reflecting the reality that atmospheric phenomena and energy flows regularly cross national boundaries in mountainous regions. Based on quantitative priority assessment and qualitative barrier analysis, we develop an evidence-based implementation roadmap addressing immediate needs (standardized warning systems, validation metrics), medium-term development (AI frameworks, cross-border protocols), and long-term transformation (probabilistic integration, automated decision support). The methodology demonstrates effective approaches for bridging research-practice gaps in energy meteorology applications, with findings contributing to understanding of renewable energy forecasting requirements in complex terrain worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102194"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-03-03DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102172
Xin Liu , Yuwei Yin , Xuesen Cai , Zheng Yongquan
The investigation delves into how China's shift towards a climate-friendly economy might be accelerated through open financial markets and green technical innovation. Considering panel data from thirty countries (2010-2023), the results show that low-carbon economic growth is greatly improved by financial freedom, with a 0.13-point rise in the mutually beneficial index for every unit improvement. Adjusting the relationship between the two variables, green technical innovation adds 0.12 points and shows multiple-threshold effects, in which increased innovation capability increases both financial and ecological benefits. More favourable consequences are shown in climate change demonstration territories and over time internationally economically viable areas compared to new arrivals, highlighting differences by region. To get the most out of economic openness for sustainability, these results show how important it is for policies to work together, for institutions to back these efforts, and for regions to have specific plans. Options for policy change include expanded regulatory foundations that align with China's zero-carbon objectives, increased support for green technologies, more tailored regional strategies, and enhanced financial accessibility.
{"title":"Green creative Thinking, China's financial democracy, and the road to a low-carbon world economy","authors":"Xin Liu , Yuwei Yin , Xuesen Cai , Zheng Yongquan","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The investigation delves into how China's shift towards a climate-friendly economy might be accelerated through open financial markets and green technical innovation. Considering panel data from thirty countries (2010-2023), the results show that low-carbon economic growth is greatly improved by financial freedom, with a 0.13-point rise in the mutually beneficial index for every unit improvement. Adjusting the relationship between the two variables, green technical innovation adds 0.12 points and shows multiple-threshold effects, in which increased innovation capability increases both financial and ecological benefits. More favourable consequences are shown in climate change demonstration territories and over time internationally economically viable areas compared to new arrivals, highlighting differences by region. To get the most out of economic openness for sustainability, these results show how important it is for policies to work together, for institutions to back these efforts, and for regions to have specific plans. Options for policy change include expanded regulatory foundations that align with China's zero-carbon objectives, increased support for green technologies, more tailored regional strategies, and enhanced financial accessibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102172"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-03-13DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102184
Enric Alcover Comas , Pol Guardia Calsina , Roger Samsó , Jordi Solé
This study evaluates decarbonisation pathways for the southern European region of Catalonia, addressing the critical gap of downscaling biophysical system-dynamics models to regional contexts. We explore variations in economic growth, energy efficiency, and renewable energy deployment. Using pymedeas2, a system dynamics-based integrated assessment model, we assess the implications of these pathways for climate change mitigation, land use, and energy demand. Scenarios that combine post-growth strategies with strong renewable expansion and efficiency gains achieve superior outcomes across these dimensions. In the reference scenario, GDP per capita stabilises by 2040 while ambitious renewable and efficiency targets are met. The most sustainable pathway reduces cumulative CO2 emissions by 21.0% and renewable land use by 15.4% relative to the reference, remaining within Catalonia’s fair-share carbon budget of 495 MtCO2. In contrast, under a high-growth scenario with delayed efficiency gains, this limit is exceeded, reaching 793 MtCO2 in cumulative emissions and increasing land-use requirements by 1.8%. These findings show that combining post-growth strategies with energy system decarbonisation can enable Catalonia to meet climate targets while reducing spatial and ecological pressures. The analysis highlights the urgency of a paradigm shift from purely supply-side technological fixes towards demand-side sufficiency policies. The pymedeas2 framework provides a transferable approach for evaluating context-specific transition pathways under ecological constraints which could be applied to other regions.
{"title":"Exploring decarbonisation strategies in the Southern-European region of Catalonia through a multi-scenario assessment","authors":"Enric Alcover Comas , Pol Guardia Calsina , Roger Samsó , Jordi Solé","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102184","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates decarbonisation pathways for the southern European region of Catalonia, addressing the critical gap of downscaling biophysical system-dynamics models to regional contexts. We explore variations in economic growth, energy efficiency, and renewable energy deployment. Using <em>pymedeas2</em>, a system dynamics-based integrated assessment model, we assess the implications of these pathways for climate change mitigation, land use, and energy demand. Scenarios that combine post-growth strategies with strong renewable expansion and efficiency gains achieve superior outcomes across these dimensions. In the reference scenario, GDP per capita stabilises by 2040 while ambitious renewable and efficiency targets are met. The most sustainable pathway reduces cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 21.0% and renewable land use by 15.4% relative to the reference, remaining within Catalonia’s fair-share carbon budget of 495 MtCO<sub>2</sub>. In contrast, under a high-growth scenario with delayed efficiency gains, this limit is exceeded, reaching 793 MtCO<sub>2</sub> in cumulative emissions and increasing land-use requirements by 1.8%. These findings show that combining post-growth strategies with energy system decarbonisation can enable Catalonia to meet climate targets while reducing spatial and ecological pressures. The analysis highlights the urgency of a paradigm shift from purely supply-side technological fixes towards demand-side sufficiency policies. The <em>pymedeas2</em> framework provides a transferable approach for evaluating context-specific transition pathways under ecological constraints which could be applied to other regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102184"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147448920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in Bangladesh—particularly three-wheeler auto-rickshaws—has increased pressure on the national grid amid limited charging infrastructure. This study aims to develop a decision-oriented framework for designing optimized, region-specific hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) for EV charging stations (EVCS), aligning system optimization with planning levers including site prioritization, tariff/incentive implications, demand response (DR) operation, and investment screening. Deterministic simulations were conducted for four high-EV-penetration regions—Gazipur, Khulna, Cox's Bazar, and Bhola—using HOMER Grid to optimize PV–battery–grid and PV–wind–grid configurations, with Gazipur also including a PV–diesel–battery–grid case, under site-specific resource and charging-demand profiles. EV charging sessions are analyzed by vehicle type and location, integrating EV-specific parameters such as charging frequency and energy per session. Grid-interactive operation was assessed through peak shaving, demand charge reduction, and energy arbitrage, alongside DR simulations for incentive-based curtailment. Across the four regions, Net Present Cost (NPC) ranged from $87,404 to $267,869 and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) varied between $0.0515/kWh and $0.0695/kWh, with Khulna yielding the most cost-effective results. Renewable-dominant configurations indicate higher CO2 offset potential, supporting decarbonization-oriented planning. DR simulations indicate peak grid demand reductions of 30–70% during high-tariff hours, with demand-reduction revenue via battery dispatch or renewable contribution. Favorable Payback Period (PP), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Return on Investment (ROI) indicate investment feasibility, while sensitivity analyses capture variations in charging frequency and electricity pricing. This study provides novel insights for planning clean, cost-effective, and grid-responsive EV charging infrastructure for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in Bangladesh.
{"title":"Towards sustainable transportation: Optimizing hybrid renewable energy systems for EV charging in Bangladesh","authors":"Md Fahid Hasan Mojumder , Himalay Baidya , Tasniah Islam , Ismail Hossen Asef , Md Marufur Rahman Rafi , Nahid-Ur-Rahman Chowdhury","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in Bangladesh—particularly three-wheeler auto-rickshaws—has increased pressure on the national grid amid limited charging infrastructure. This study aims to develop a decision-oriented framework for designing optimized, region-specific hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) for EV charging stations (EVCS), aligning system optimization with planning levers including site prioritization, tariff/incentive implications, demand response (DR) operation, and investment screening. Deterministic simulations were conducted for four high-EV-penetration regions—Gazipur, Khulna, Cox's Bazar, and Bhola—using HOMER Grid to optimize PV–battery–grid and PV–wind–grid configurations, with Gazipur also including a PV–diesel–battery–grid case, under site-specific resource and charging-demand profiles. EV charging sessions are analyzed by vehicle type and location, integrating EV-specific parameters such as charging frequency and energy per session. Grid-interactive operation was assessed through peak shaving, demand charge reduction, and energy arbitrage, alongside DR simulations for incentive-based curtailment. Across the four regions, Net Present Cost (NPC) ranged from $87,404 to $267,869 and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) varied between $0.0515/kWh and $0.0695/kWh, with Khulna yielding the most cost-effective results. Renewable-dominant configurations indicate higher CO<sub>2</sub> offset potential, supporting decarbonization-oriented planning. DR simulations indicate peak grid demand reductions of 30–70% during high-tariff hours, with demand-reduction revenue via battery dispatch or renewable contribution. Favorable Payback Period (PP), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Return on Investment (ROI) indicate investment feasibility, while sensitivity analyses capture variations in charging frequency and electricity pricing. This study provides novel insights for planning clean, cost-effective, and grid-responsive EV charging infrastructure for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in Bangladesh.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102126"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-18DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102100
Jingyi Li , Ruilian Zhang , Xiaowei Xu , Zulfiqar Ali Baloch , Fadhila Hamza , Lu Sain
<div><div>China's pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 represents a transformative shift in the country’s energy and industrial landscapes, with profound implications for societal change. This study conducts a comprehensive economic and policy-oriented assessment of solar-based hydrogen production systems, focusing on their cost structure, scalability, and contribute to the broader social movement towards sustainability. By providing a comprehensive economic and policy-oriented analysis, the study assesses the social, economic, and policy dimensions of solar-based hydrogen production, particularly its scalability and impact on social equity in different regions of China. Using operational data derived from a pilot-scale solar hydrogen facility in western China between March and October 2024, the analysis evaluates levelized hydrogen costs, capital intensity, resource efficiency, and co-product value creation under realistic deployment conditions. A techno-economic framework is developed to quantify production costs across pilot and commercial scales, incorporating capital expenditure, operational costs, solar resource variability, and revenue streams from carbon-based by-products and emissions credits. Results indicate that the levelized cost of hydrogen reaches USD 1.87 kg<sup>−1</sup> at pilot scale and declines to approximately USD 1.23 kg<sup>−1</sup> under a projected 5 MW commercial configuration, positioning solar-based hydrogen favorably relative to conventional fossil-based hydrogen, grid-powered electrolysis, and hydrogen production with carbon capture. Sensitivity analysis highlights the dominant influence of solar utilization rates, policy incentives, and carbon pricing mechanisms on overall system competitiveness. Life-cycle economic evaluation demonstrates substantial reductions in carbon-related externalities, with emissions intensity corresponding to a 94% reduction compared to conventional fossil-derived hydrogen and a 76% reduction relative to electrolysis under China's current electricity mix. This decline in cost presents an opportunity to make renewable hydrogen accessible, which could drive social transformation by empowering local communities, particularly in high-irradiance regions of western China, where solar energy resources are abundant. Sensitivity analysis highlights the critical role of policy incentives and carbon pricing mechanisms in ensuring that the benefits of solar hydrogen are distributed equitably across society. The study underscores the positive social change that could arise from the widespread adoption of solar hydrogen, including the reduction of carbon-related externalities, the creation of green jobs, and alignment with China’s carbon market and decarbonization policies. The findings illustrate that solar hydrogen production has the potential to act as a key enabler of industrial decarbonization, regional economic development, and social equi
中国承诺到2060年实现碳中和，这代表着中国能源和工业格局的转型，对社会变革有着深远的影响。本研究对太阳能制氢系统进行了全面的经济和政策导向评估，重点关注其成本结构、可扩展性以及对更广泛的可持续发展社会运动的贡献。通过提供全面的经济和政策导向分析，本研究评估了太阳能制氢的社会、经济和政策维度，特别是其可扩展性和对中国不同地区社会公平的影响。利用2024年3月至10月中国西部一个中试规模太阳能氢能设施的运行数据，分析评估了现实部署条件下的平准化氢成本、资本密集度、资源效率和副产品价值创造。开发了一个技术经济框架，以量化试点和商业规模的生产成本，包括资本支出、运营成本、太阳能资源可变性以及碳基副产品和排放信用的收入流。结果表明，在中试规模下，氢气的平均成本达到1.87 kg - 1 美元，而在预计的5 MW商业配置下，这一成本将降至约1.23 kg - 1美元，这使得太阳能氢相对于传统的化石氢、电网电解和碳捕集制氢更具优势。敏感性分析强调了太阳能利用率、政策激励和碳定价机制对整个系统竞争力的主导影响。生命周期经济评估显示，与碳相关的外部性大幅降低，与传统化石衍生氢相比，排放强度降低了94%，与中国目前的电力结构下的电解相比，排放强度降低了76%。成本的下降为可再生氢能源的普及提供了机会，这将推动当地社区的社会转型，特别是在太阳能资源丰富的中国西部高辐射地区。敏感性分析强调了政策激励和碳定价机制在确保太阳能氢的利益在整个社会中公平分配方面的关键作用。该研究强调了广泛采用太阳能氢能可能带来的积极社会变化，包括减少与碳相关的外部性，创造绿色就业机会，并与中国的碳市场和脱碳政策保持一致。研究结果表明，太阳能制氢有潜力成为工业脱碳、区域经济发展和社会公平的关键推动者，为推进中国更广泛的气候和社会目标提供了可扩展的解决方案。
{"title":"Solar-driven hydrogen production for zero carbon future: Social, economic, and policy implications for China's energy transition","authors":"Jingyi Li , Ruilian Zhang , Xiaowei Xu , Zulfiqar Ali Baloch , Fadhila Hamza , Lu Sain","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 represents a transformative shift in the country’s energy and industrial landscapes, with profound implications for societal change. This study conducts a comprehensive economic and policy-oriented assessment of solar-based hydrogen production systems, focusing on their cost structure, scalability, and contribute to the broader social movement towards sustainability. By providing a comprehensive economic and policy-oriented analysis, the study assesses the social, economic, and policy dimensions of solar-based hydrogen production, particularly its scalability and impact on social equity in different regions of China. Using operational data derived from a pilot-scale solar hydrogen facility in western China between March and October 2024, the analysis evaluates levelized hydrogen costs, capital intensity, resource efficiency, and co-product value creation under realistic deployment conditions. A techno-economic framework is developed to quantify production costs across pilot and commercial scales, incorporating capital expenditure, operational costs, solar resource variability, and revenue streams from carbon-based by-products and emissions credits. Results indicate that the levelized cost of hydrogen reaches USD 1.87 kg<sup>−1</sup> at pilot scale and declines to approximately USD 1.23 kg<sup>−1</sup> under a projected 5 MW commercial configuration, positioning solar-based hydrogen favorably relative to conventional fossil-based hydrogen, grid-powered electrolysis, and hydrogen production with carbon capture. Sensitivity analysis highlights the dominant influence of solar utilization rates, policy incentives, and carbon pricing mechanisms on overall system competitiveness. Life-cycle economic evaluation demonstrates substantial reductions in carbon-related externalities, with emissions intensity corresponding to a 94% reduction compared to conventional fossil-derived hydrogen and a 76% reduction relative to electrolysis under China's current electricity mix. This decline in cost presents an opportunity to make renewable hydrogen accessible, which could drive social transformation by empowering local communities, particularly in high-irradiance regions of western China, where solar energy resources are abundant. Sensitivity analysis highlights the critical role of policy incentives and carbon pricing mechanisms in ensuring that the benefits of solar hydrogen are distributed equitably across society. The study underscores the positive social change that could arise from the widespread adoption of solar hydrogen, including the reduction of carbon-related externalities, the creation of green jobs, and alignment with China’s carbon market and decarbonization policies. The findings illustrate that solar hydrogen production has the potential to act as a key enabler of industrial decarbonization, regional economic development, and social equi","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102100"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102108
Alanoud Al-Maadid, Mohamed Sami Ben Ali, Ijaz Younis
This study explores the dynamic interconnectedness among natural gas, gold, and stock markets across six GCC countries from 2014 to 2024, with a focus on periods of geopolitical and health crises. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, we identified natural gas as a significant transmitter and receiver of shocks, particularly during the IP conflict and the RU war. Gold exhibits moderate safe-haven characteristics, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. Spillover intensity varies across countries and crises, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE showing increased integration with global energy markets, while Qatar and Bahrain remain consistently vulnerable to gas shocks. Our findings highlight the role of natural gas in financial contagion and have implications for energy policy and regional market stability.
{"title":"Interconnectedness and shocks transmission between natural gas, gold, and stock markets in the GCC during financial and political instability","authors":"Alanoud Al-Maadid, Mohamed Sami Ben Ali, Ijaz Younis","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102108","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102108","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the dynamic interconnectedness among natural gas, gold, and stock markets across six GCC countries from 2014 to 2024, with a focus on periods of geopolitical and health crises. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, we identified natural gas as a significant transmitter and receiver of shocks, particularly during the IP conflict and the RU war. Gold exhibits moderate safe-haven characteristics, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. Spillover intensity varies across countries and crises, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE showing increased integration with global energy markets, while Qatar and Bahrain remain consistently vulnerable to gas shocks. Our findings highlight the role of natural gas in financial contagion and have implications for energy policy and regional market stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102108"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102002
Khaled Al-Dabbas , Andreas Clement , Grégoire de Jerphanion , Joshua Fragoso García , Stefan Lechtenböhmer , Tobias Fleiter
The decarbonisation of industry, which is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is closely linked to the energy system and its transformation. This study quantifies the impacts of industrial decarbonisation on the European energy system, considering uncertainties in electricity and hydrogen demand and constraints on renewable energy sources (RES) deployment and cross-border infrastructure expansion. Using a scenario-based approach, we link the detailed bottom-up model FORECAST-Industry with the multi-energy system model METIS-3 to analyse six scenarios that explore variations in hydrogen and electrification adoption and supply-side constraints. By 2050, electrification is projected to be the cornerstone of industrial decarbonisation in the EU27+UK, with demand reaching 1528–1854 TWh compared with 976 TWh in 2020, while hydrogen demand ranges between 416 and 1785 TWh by 2050, concentrated in energy-intensive sectors. Meeting the energy demand of all sectors will require unprecedented expansion of RES, with annual capacity additions of 56–73 GW for solar and 37–55 GW for wind. Developing a pan-European hydrogen network is a robust element that reduces costs even under scenarios with constrained RES deployment or low industrial hydrogen demand. From a techno-economic perspective, optimal deployment of RES potentials, supported by robust hydrogen infrastructure, could enable the EU to meet its own hydrogen demand domestically at a competitive marginal system cost of 55–64 €/MWh. Less ambitious RES deployment or cross-border capacity limitations lead to a 19.5 % increase in the costs of hydrogen and a greater reliance on hydrogen imports, covering up to 23 % of demand. By providing high sectoral and process-level detail, the study captures a wide range of potential hydrogen uses and the corresponding need for hydrogen infrastructure.
{"title":"The impact of EU net-zero industry strategies on the energy system and cross-border hydrogen infrastructure","authors":"Khaled Al-Dabbas , Andreas Clement , Grégoire de Jerphanion , Joshua Fragoso García , Stefan Lechtenböhmer , Tobias Fleiter","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The decarbonisation of industry, which is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is closely linked to the energy system and its transformation. This study quantifies the impacts of industrial decarbonisation on the European energy system, considering uncertainties in electricity and hydrogen demand and constraints on renewable energy sources (RES) deployment and cross-border infrastructure expansion. Using a scenario-based approach, we link the detailed bottom-up model FORECAST-Industry with the multi-energy system model METIS-3 to analyse six scenarios that explore variations in hydrogen and electrification adoption and supply-side constraints. By 2050, electrification is projected to be the cornerstone of industrial decarbonisation in the EU27+UK, with demand reaching 1528–1854 TWh compared with 976 TWh in 2020, while hydrogen demand ranges between 416 and 1785 TWh by 2050, concentrated in energy-intensive sectors. Meeting the energy demand of all sectors will require unprecedented expansion of RES, with annual capacity additions of 56–73 GW for solar and 37–55 GW for wind. Developing a pan-European hydrogen network is a robust element that reduces costs even under scenarios with constrained RES deployment or low industrial hydrogen demand. From a techno-economic perspective, optimal deployment of RES potentials, supported by robust hydrogen infrastructure, could enable the EU to meet its own hydrogen demand domestically at a competitive marginal system cost of 55–64 €/MWh. Less ambitious RES deployment or cross-border capacity limitations lead to a 19.5 % increase in the costs of hydrogen and a greater reliance on hydrogen imports, covering up to 23 % of demand. By providing high sectoral and process-level detail, the study captures a wide range of potential hydrogen uses and the corresponding need for hydrogen infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102002"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102090
Wolf D. Grossmann , Iris Grossmann , Karl W. Steininger
For the transition to fully renewable energy the residual load – the portion of the load that is not yet generated from renewables – has to be replaced with renewable electricity. Photovoltaics (PV) is of particular interest given possible low electricity costs. However, firm electricity from PV is still expensive due to intermittency, in particular seasonally. We describe and apply a two-part non-linear optimization method. First, optimal percentages of solar generation capacity at different sites are determined to closely approximate a given load pattern. Results are best when sites on both hemispheres and in many time zones are combined. The second method utilizes the combination of sites determined during the first phase to find a cost-optimal pairing of PV and storage that delivers firm electricity for the given load. Costs of firm electricity for common load patterns, e.g. the European Union or a linear load, could be less than USD 20/MWh, without transmission, if global generation sites are utilized; transmission would add between $34.8 and $48.9 for, respectively, high and low learning rates by year 2034. Long submarine power cables are being planned and built globally, enabling enhanced technological learning and consequently declining costs. We discuss several examples of combinations of solar generation sites with electricity costs including transmission depending on expected learning rates. This approach could help identify stable configurations for affordable and firm electricity from renewables and inform plans for necessary long-distance power transmission infrastructure. We give an example of an intercontinental power cable that could be built along the known route of an existing submarine telecom cable.
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Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102113
Tomás Gutiérrez Roa
This article examines the transformation of the European Union's energy security discourse following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a profound shift in strategic, institutional, and normative frameworks. Using a qualitative, discourse-analytical approach, the study analyzes official EU documents and international reports to trace how recent narratives emphasize structural resilience, strategic autonomy, and sustainability. It identifies three core dimensions of this transition: the semantic redefinition of energy security, the institutional anchoring of the “open strategic autonomy” paradigm, and the growing integration of social, territorial, and environmental considerations in EU energy governance. While not fully consolidated, this discursive shift suggests more than a geopolitical realignment—it reflects an evolving configuration of power and legitimacy within the EU’s green transition. However, internal asymmetries and strategic vagueness persist, raising questions about the coherence and effectiveness of the emerging framework. By adopting a multidimensional and constructivist lens, the article contributes to debates on energy governance and highlights how crisis-driven learning and institutional adaptation shape the future of EU energy policy.
{"title":"From vulnerability to strategic autonomy: Discursive transformations In Eu energy security (2003–2024)","authors":"Tomás Gutiérrez Roa","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102113","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102113","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines the transformation of the European Union's energy security discourse following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a profound shift in strategic, institutional, and normative frameworks. Using a qualitative, discourse-analytical approach, the study analyzes official EU documents and international reports to trace how recent narratives emphasize structural resilience, strategic autonomy, and sustainability. It identifies three core dimensions of this transition: the semantic redefinition of energy security, the institutional anchoring of the “open strategic autonomy” paradigm, and the growing integration of social, territorial, and environmental considerations in EU energy governance. While not fully consolidated, this discursive shift suggests more than a geopolitical realignment—it reflects an evolving configuration of power and legitimacy within the EU’s green transition. However, internal asymmetries and strategic vagueness persist, raising questions about the coherence and effectiveness of the emerging framework. By adopting a multidimensional and constructivist lens, the article contributes to debates on energy governance and highlights how crisis-driven learning and institutional adaptation shape the future of EU energy policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102113"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102057
Bassem Kahouli , Basma Hamdi , Kamel Miled
Resource depletion and environmental risks are more than ever at the heart of societal and economic debates. Renewable energy and new technologies are emerging as solutions for environmental sustainability. Following the STIRPAT model, this study aims to evaluate the interplay between renewable energy consumption (henceforth, REC), agriculture, clean technologies, natural resources rents (NRR), and environmental sustainability. We analyzed two perspectives on the role of clean technologies: unconditional (single) and conditional (interaction with REC). The main value of this research is that it adds to the expanding body of knowledge on the subject. The dataset of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) from 1990 to 2021 is used to achieve this purpose. Driven by the KSA’s need for sustainable practices, this study uses a strong empirical analysis to investigate both short- and long-term links between these variables, involving time series data analysis, unit root tests, bounds tests for cointegration, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to check the direction of causality. This work closes a gap in existing research by combining these variables in a novel way, offering empirical proof of their collective impact on environmental sustainability. The empirical finding reveals a strong link between REC and environmental sustainability indicators. This study presents original empirical proof and policy suggestions for KSA decision-makers that enhancing clean technologies can be a valuable strategy to support renewable energy and reduce dependence on natural resources; this will help enhance environmental sustainability. Consequently, the KSA policymakers must take action to expand investments in clean technologies and renewable energy.
{"title":"Exploring the interplay between renewable energy, agriculture, clean technologies, natural resources, and environmental sustainability","authors":"Bassem Kahouli , Basma Hamdi , Kamel Miled","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resource depletion and environmental risks are more than ever at the heart of societal and economic debates. Renewable energy and new technologies are emerging as solutions for environmental sustainability. Following the STIRPAT model, this study aims to evaluate the interplay between renewable energy consumption (henceforth, REC), agriculture, clean technologies, natural resources rents (NRR), and environmental sustainability. We analyzed two perspectives on the role of clean technologies: unconditional (single) and conditional (interaction with REC). The main value of this research is that it adds to the expanding body of knowledge on the subject. The dataset of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) from 1990 to 2021 is used to achieve this purpose. Driven by the KSA’s need for sustainable practices, this study uses a strong empirical analysis to investigate both short- and long-term links between these variables, involving time series data analysis, unit root tests, bounds tests for cointegration, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to check the direction of causality. This work closes a gap in existing research by combining these variables in a novel way, offering empirical proof of their collective impact on environmental sustainability. The empirical finding reveals a strong link between REC and environmental sustainability indicators. This study presents original empirical proof and policy suggestions for KSA decision-makers that enhancing clean technologies can be a valuable strategy to support renewable energy and reduce dependence on natural resources; this will help enhance environmental sustainability. Consequently, the KSA policymakers must take action to expand investments in clean technologies and renewable energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"64 ","pages":"Article 102057"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146015858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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