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Smart and transparent grid stability prediction for efficient energy management using explainable AI 使用可解释的人工智能进行高效能源管理的智能透明电网稳定性预测
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102083
Gulfaraz Anis , Naila Samar Naz , Taher M. Ghazal , Muhammad Sajid Farooq , Muhammad Saleem , Chan Yeob Yeun , Munir Ahmad , Khan Muhammad Adnan
The incorporation of modern trends and renewable power systems, coupled with smart grids, has made grid stability prediction increasingly challenging. The limitations of traditional stability prediction systems arise from dynamic power usage, along with unavoidable variations in renewable power supplies, and the models’ inability to track real-time changes. Transparency issues within traditional stability prediction systems hinder grid operators’ understanding of how predictions are formed. Transparent models play a crucial role in building trust and enabling informed decisions, but non-interpretable models pose significant problems by obscuring transparency in critical decisions. In this research, a transparent and smart Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) model is proposed to operate within this framework to address existing issues. The Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) framework is integrated to improve the interpretability of model predictions, thereby increasing the transparency of the decision-making process. In this study, grid stability is represented by the dataset label ‘’stabf’’, which classifies each energy load instance as stable or unstable, rather than simulating the physical grid or modeling its dynamics. The integration of Machine Learning (ML) with XAI techniques in the proposed model enables more efficient and transparent operations, resulting in improved predictive performance and accurate real-time predictions. Simulation results have demonstrated the outstanding performance of this proposed model, which achieves an impressive accuracy of 99.92 % and a miss-rate of 0.08 %, outperforming previously published approaches.
现代趋势和可再生能源系统的结合,再加上智能电网,使得电网稳定性预测越来越具有挑战性。传统稳定性预测系统的局限性来自于动态电力使用,以及不可避免的可再生能源供应变化,以及模型无法跟踪实时变化。传统稳定性预测系统的透明度问题阻碍了电网运营商理解预测是如何形成的。透明模型在建立信任和实现知情决策方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但不可解释的模型由于模糊了关键决策的透明度而造成了重大问题。在本研究中,提出了一个透明和智能的可解释人工智能(XAI)模型,以在此框架内运行,以解决现有问题。集成了局部可解释模型不可知论解释(LIME)框架,以提高模型预测的可解释性,从而增加决策过程的透明度。在本研究中,电网稳定性由数据集标签“stabf”表示,它将每个能源负荷实例分类为稳定或不稳定,而不是模拟物理电网或对其动态建模。在提出的模型中,机器学习(ML)与XAI技术的集成使操作更高效、更透明,从而提高了预测性能和准确的实时预测。仿真结果证明了该模型的优异性能,其准确率达到99.92 %,缺失率为0.08 %,优于先前发表的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations on financial stress 石油价格波动对金融压力的不对称影响
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102074
George N. Apostolakis
Fluctuations in oil prices transmit greater uncertainty in financial markets depending on the current market conditions or the direction of price movement. We employ nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) and Markov switching regression autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (MSWARCH) models to examine the effects of the asymmetric transmission of oil price innovations on financial stress in a sample of oil-importing economies. The analysis results demonstrate the important roles of the demand side and risk in shaping financial system stability. In particular, the results from the NARDL model indicated a greater negative impact of oil demand shocks on financial stress than a smaller positive effect of oil risk shocks. The results from the NARDL model and the cumulative dynamic multipliers reveal asymmetric effects of oil price shocks of different origins in the short term. More specifically, we find evidence of short-run asymmetries after an oil risk shock for China and the Euro Area and after an oil demand shock for the U.S. and the UK. The results from the MSWARCH approach indicate a significant impact on financial stress after oil demand and oil risk shocks for numerous economies without confirming any asymmetric effects. Our findings are important to investors for portfolio diversification purposes and to policymakers responsible for monitoring and ensuring the stability of the financial system.
根据当前的市场状况或价格走势,石油价格的波动给金融市场带来了更大的不确定性。我们采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)和马尔可夫切换回归自回归条件异方差(MSWARCH)模型来检验石油价格创新的不对称传导对石油进口经济体金融压力的影响。分析结果表明,需求侧和风险在塑造金融体系稳定性中的重要作用。特别是,NARDL模型的结果表明,石油需求冲击对金融压力的负面影响大于石油风险冲击的正面影响。NARDL模型和累积动态乘数的结果揭示了不同来源的油价冲击在短期内的不对称效应。更具体地说,我们发现在中国和欧元区的石油风险冲击以及美国和英国的石油需求冲击之后,短期不对称的证据。mswatch方法的结果表明,在石油需求和石油风险冲击之后,对许多经济体的金融压力产生了重大影响,但没有证实任何不对称效应。我们的研究结果对投资组合多样化目的的投资者和负责监督和确保金融体系稳定的政策制定者都很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Recent advancements and perspectives in lithium-ion battery technology 锂离子电池技术的最新进展与展望
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102064
Siddharth Kulkarni, Keru Duan, Gu Pang, Ahmad Bhatti
This paper aims to present a timely review of recent developments and perspectives on Lithium-Ion Battery (LIB) technologies regarding sustainable development, electrochemical efficiency, and machine learning models for forecasting the availability of services such as vehicle-to-home. The paper argues that the world is increasingly demanding sustainable, reliable energy sources because current sources are unstable and fossil-fuel-dependent. Research shows that 85 % or more of the world's energy comes from non-renewable sources, including natural gas, coal, and oil, underscoring the world's persistent reliance on fossil fuels. This study conducts a literature review on recent advances in sustainable LIB development, emphasising emerging chemical technologies, novel energy materials, and innovations in battery manufacturing. Findings indicate a growing demand for LIBs driven by environmental sustainability goals. However, LIB production was constrained by resource scarcity and rising manufacturing costs. To address these issues, researchers are exploring next-generation chemistries, improved material design, and enhanced recycling processes. Additionally, advancements in machine learning and battery-material characterisation are essential to meet evolving consumer demands, including for vehicle-to-home applications.
本文旨在及时回顾锂离子电池(LIB)技术的最新发展和前景,包括可持续发展、电化学效率和用于预测车辆到家庭等服务可用性的机器学习模型。这篇论文认为,由于目前的能源不稳定且依赖化石燃料,世界对可持续、可靠的能源的需求越来越大。研究表明,世界上85%或更多的能源来自不可再生资源,包括天然气、煤炭和石油,这突显了世界对化石燃料的持续依赖。本研究对可持续锂电池发展的最新进展进行了文献综述,重点介绍了新兴的化学技术、新型能源材料和电池制造的创新。研究结果表明,在环境可持续性目标的驱动下,对lib的需求不断增长。然而,锂离子电池的生产受到资源稀缺和制造成本上升的制约。为了解决这些问题,研究人员正在探索下一代化学,改进材料设计和增强回收过程。此外,机器学习和电池材料特性的进步对于满足不断变化的消费者需求至关重要,包括车辆到家庭的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Breaking the pollution cycle: Green energy transition, financial innovation, and climate resilience in Türkiye 打破污染循环:绿色能源转型、金融创新和气候适应能力
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102056
Mohammed Musah , Isaac Adjei Mensah , Thomas Appiah , Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh , Gertrude Amoakohene
Türkiye's rapid economic development has heightened environmental degradation, underscoring the need for a green energy transition supported by sustainable financial innovation. This study investigates how financial innovation moderates the relationship between green energy and environmental quality in Türkiye from 1996 to 2021. A multidimensional environmental pressure index, capturing CO2 damage, energy depletion, forest depletion, mineral depletion, and particulate emission damage, is developed to measure environmental degradation. Using the Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning approach, the results show that green energy significantly reduces environmental pressure, advancing Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13. In contrast, financial innovation intensifies environmental pressure, while its interaction with green energy weakens the latter's environmental benefits. Foreign direct investment has no significant effect. These findings highlight the dual role of financial innovation as both an enabler and a constraint on environmental sustainability. Policymakers should therefore embed environmental safeguards within financial innovation frameworks, expand green finance instruments, and align financial sector development with Türkiye's low-carbon transition goals. The study contributes to ecological modernization theory and the finance–environment nexus by offering novel evidence from an emerging economy.
日本经济的快速发展加剧了环境的恶化,强调了在可持续金融创新的支持下实现绿色能源转型的必要性。本文研究了1996 - 2021年金融创新如何调节我国绿色能源与环境质量之间的关系。建立了一个多维环境压力指数,包括二氧化碳损害、能源枯竭、森林枯竭、矿物枯竭和颗粒排放损害,以衡量环境退化。使用核正则化最小二乘(KRLS)机器学习方法,结果表明绿色能源显着降低了环境压力,推进了可持续发展目标7和13。相反,金融创新加剧了环境压力,与绿色能源的相互作用削弱了后者的环境效益。外商直接投资没有显著影响。这些发现突出了金融创新在环境可持续性方面的双重作用:既是推动者,也是制约因素。因此,政策制定者应将环境保护措施纳入金融创新框架,扩大绿色金融工具,并使金融部门的发展与世行的低碳转型目标保持一致。该研究为生态现代化理论和金融-环境关系提供了来自新兴经济体的新证据。
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引用次数: 0
Energy price crisis and crash early warning system 能源价格危机与崩盘预警系统
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102069
Turgut Yokuş, Ahmet Ay, Nihal Yokuş
Over the past fifty years, numerous energy price crises and energy price crashes have occurred worldwide, defined as cases exceeding two standard deviations (large increases or decreases) from the mean of the Energy Market Pressure Index, which is constructed from energy prices and U.S. inflation. These crises and crashes have caused numerous economic, political, military, social, and environmental issues in countries, depending on their energy import-export structures. The objective of this study is to develop an Early Warning System model that provides sufficient time for preventive measures before energy crises and crashes occur. The 14-variable model, created using Multinomial Logistic Regression analysis and based on monthly data from January 1973 to December 2023, provides the ability to predict the probabilistic changes of crisis or crash cases on a monthly basis from month 1 to month 6, using lagged variable values, and thus enables forecasting of potential crises or crashes in the upcoming 6th month. The empirical results of the model show that these cases are determined by indicators related to energy supply-demand imbalances, economic and financial disruptions, energy investments (drilling activities), and geopolitical risks and expectations. Furthermore, the model is able to predict energy trends (non-crisis/crash months) with 99.5 % accuracy, crises with 75 %, crashes with 60 %, and all cases overall with 98.3 % accuracy. In conclusion, this model, which can anticipate energy crises and crashes in advance, offers a practical and effective tool for governments, energy market actors, and analysts to use in policy development, investment planning, and risk management.
在过去的50年里,世界范围内发生了许多能源价格危机和能源价格崩溃,其定义为能源市场压力指数(由能源价格和美国通货膨胀构成)的平均值超过两个标准差(大幅上涨或大幅下跌)的情况。这些危机和崩溃在各国造成了许多经济、政治、军事、社会和环境问题,这取决于它们的能源进出口结构。本研究的目的是建立一个早期预警系统模型,为能源危机和崩溃发生前的预防措施提供足够的时间。使用多项逻辑回归分析创建的14变量模型基于1973年1月至2023年12月的月度数据,提供了从第1个月到第6个月每月预测危机或崩溃案例概率变化的能力,使用滞后变量值,从而能够预测即将到来的第六个月的潜在危机或崩溃。该模型的实证结果表明,这些案例是由与能源供需失衡、经济和金融中断、能源投资(钻井活动)以及地缘政治风险和预期相关的指标决定的。此外,该模型能够预测能源趋势(非危机/崩溃月份),准确率为99.5% %,危机为75% %,崩溃为60% %,所有情况的总体准确率为98.3% %。总而言之,该模型可以提前预测能源危机和崩溃,为政府、能源市场参与者和分析师在政策制定、投资规划和风险管理中提供了一个实用而有效的工具。
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引用次数: 0
A time-varying analysis of the responsible AI and energy crisis link: Fresh findings from TVP-VAR-SV 负责任的人工智能与能源危机联系的时变分析:tpv -var - sv的新发现
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102080
Le Thanh Ha
The development of responsible AI shows how technological progress interacts with evolving energy governance frameworks. Our research employs time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with a stochastic volatility model to analyze the correlation between responsible AI and energy uncertainty spanning from November 2018 to November 2023. Our findings show that the stochastic volatility of responsible AI, S&P 500, and oil volatility were positive and stable in the whole period. The result of energy uncertainty is much larger than the other, indicating that it is highly sensitive to external shocks and must be adapted flexibly according to the evolving context. In the 4-period ahead, impulse responses of responsible AI to energy uncertainty and oil volatility were opposite in the 1-period ahead. Impulse responses of responsible AI to energy uncertainty declined sharply into negative territory in early 2020 and late 2022, reaching their lowest point near early 2023. With responsible AI shocks, impulse responses of energy uncertainty peaked sharply around early 2021 and again near mid-2022 before dropping steeply to its lowest point in early 2023. In the short term, Responsible AI has limited influence on reducing energy uncertainty, but in the long run, it strengthens system resilience and sustainability through improved data governance, adaptive learning, and ethical integration.
负责任的人工智能的发展显示了技术进步如何与不断发展的能源治理框架相互作用。我们的研究采用时变参数结构向量自回归(TVP-VAR)和随机波动模型,分析了2018年11月至2023年11月期间负责任的人工智能与能源不确定性之间的相关性。我们的研究结果表明,在整个时期,负责任的人工智能、标准普尔500指数和石油波动率的随机波动率都是正的、稳定的。能源不确定性的影响比其他影响大得多,这表明能源不确定性对外部冲击高度敏感,必须根据不断变化的环境灵活调整。在未来4个周期内,负责任的人工智能对能源不确定性和石油波动的脉冲响应在未来1个周期内相反。负责任的人工智能对能源不确定性的脉冲响应在2020年初和2022年底急剧下降至负值,在2023年初附近达到最低点。在负责任的人工智能冲击下,能源不确定性的脉冲响应在2021年初左右达到峰值,在2022年年中再次达到峰值,然后在2023年初急剧下降至最低点。在短期内,负责任的人工智能对减少能源不确定性的影响有限,但从长远来看,它通过改进数据治理、自适应学习和道德整合,增强了系统的弹性和可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the interplay between renewable energy, agriculture, clean technologies, natural resources, and environmental sustainability 探索可再生能源、农业、清洁技术、自然资源和环境可持续性之间的相互作用
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102057
Bassem Kahouli , Basma Hamdi , Kamel Miled
Resource depletion and environmental risks are more than ever at the heart of societal and economic debates. Renewable energy and new technologies are emerging as solutions for environmental sustainability. Following the STIRPAT model, this study aims to evaluate the interplay between renewable energy consumption (henceforth, REC), agriculture, clean technologies, natural resources rents (NRR), and environmental sustainability. We analyzed two perspectives on the role of clean technologies: unconditional (single) and conditional (interaction with REC). The main value of this research is that it adds to the expanding body of knowledge on the subject. The dataset of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) from 1990 to 2021 is used to achieve this purpose. Driven by the KSA’s need for sustainable practices, this study uses a strong empirical analysis to investigate both short- and long-term links between these variables, involving time series data analysis, unit root tests, bounds tests for cointegration, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to check the direction of causality. This work closes a gap in existing research by combining these variables in a novel way, offering empirical proof of their collective impact on environmental sustainability. The empirical finding reveals a strong link between REC and environmental sustainability indicators. This study presents original empirical proof and policy suggestions for KSA decision-makers that enhancing clean technologies can be a valuable strategy to support renewable energy and reduce dependence on natural resources; this will help enhance environmental sustainability. Consequently, the KSA policymakers must take action to expand investments in clean technologies and renewable energy.
资源枯竭和环境风险比以往任何时候都更加成为社会和经济辩论的核心。可再生能源和新技术正在成为环境可持续性的解决方案。根据STIRPAT模型,本研究旨在评估可再生能源消费(以下简称REC)、农业、清洁技术、自然资源租金(NRR)和环境可持续性之间的相互作用。我们分析了清洁技术作用的两种观点:无条件(单一)和有条件(与REC相互作用)。这项研究的主要价值在于它增加了关于这一主题的不断扩大的知识体系。为了实现这一目的,使用了沙特阿拉伯王国(KSA) 1990年至2021年的数据集。受KSA对可持续实践的需求驱动,本研究使用强有力的实证分析来调查这些变量之间的短期和长期联系,包括时间序列数据分析、单位根检验、协整边界检验和自回归分布滞后(ARDL)分析。矢量误差修正模型(VECM)用于检验因果关系的方向。这项工作通过以一种新颖的方式结合这些变量,填补了现有研究的空白,为它们对环境可持续性的集体影响提供了经验证据。实证结果表明,REC与环境可持续性指标之间存在很强的联系。本研究为沙特阿拉伯决策者提供了原始的经验证据和政策建议,即加强清洁技术可以成为支持可再生能源和减少对自然资源依赖的有价值的战略;这将有助于提高环境的可持续性。因此,沙特阿拉伯的决策者必须采取行动,扩大对清洁技术和可再生能源的投资。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable bioenergy from microalgal lipid remodeling: An AI and genetic engineering approach for the circular economy 来自微藻脂质重塑的可持续生物能源:循环经济的人工智能和基因工程方法
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102050
Rahul Prasad Singh , Prince Kumar Singh , Indrajeet Kumar , Manish Kumar , Vivek Kumar Gaur , Amit Kaushik , Aditi Arya , Mahaswetta Saikia , Sergio de los Santos-Villalobos , Ajay Kumar , Laurent Dufossé
Microalgal bioenergy shows great potential for meeting global energy needs but faces economic limits due to low biofuel precursor yields. Optimizing microalgal biomass and lipid accumulation is vital for sustainable bioenergy production; however, the trade-off between growth and lipid synthesis remains a major challenge. Therefore, this review examines the integration of genetic engineering and artificial intelligence (AI) strategies to address these challenges within a circular bioeconomy framework aimed at maximizing the bioenergy potential of microalgae. Key advancements in genetic transformation approaches targeting lipid biosynthetic pathways and associated enzymes [acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACCase), malonyl-CoA ACP transacylase (MAT), acyl-ACP thioesterase (TE), glycerol phosphate acyltransferase (GPAT), lysophosphatidic acid acyltransferase (LPAAT), and diacylglycerol acyltransferase (DGAT)] are discussed in detail to enhance lipid productivity. Furthermore, strategies to remove stumbling blocks such as suppressing carbohydrate biosynthesis, inhibiting lipid degradation, and modulating acetyl-CoA pathways along with photosynthetic engineering (reduction of antenna size and manipulation of Calvin cycle) approaches were explored to more effectively channel carbon flux toward lipid biosynthesis. The review also examines lipid engineering approaches aimed at modifying fatty acid composition and enhancing lipid secretion, along with the manipulation of lipogenic transcription factors (Dof-type, bZIP, NRR, and MYB) to facilitate transcriptomic reprogramming. Additionally, AI algorithms have been introduced for their potential to optimize biorefinery systems by enhancing microalgal species selection, biomass harvesting, and the optimization of cultivation and biorefinery conversion processes, while simultaneously minimizing operational costs, risks, and environmental impacts. Thus, this review highlights the potential of genetic engineering and AI in microalgae to enhance bioenergy precursors, thereby advancing sustainable biofuel production within a circular bioeconomy framework for future development.
微藻生物能源显示出满足全球能源需求的巨大潜力,但由于生物燃料前体产量低而面临经济限制。优化微藻生物量和脂质积累对可持续生物能源生产至关重要;然而,生长和脂质合成之间的权衡仍然是一个主要的挑战。因此,本综述探讨了在循环生物经济框架内整合基因工程和人工智能(AI)策略来解决这些挑战,旨在最大限度地发挥微藻的生物能源潜力。本文详细讨论了针对脂质生物合成途径和相关酶[乙酰辅酶a羧化酶(ACCase)、丙二酰辅酶a ACP转酰基酶(MAT)、酰基ACP硫酯酶(TE)、甘油磷酸酰基转移酶(GPAT)、溶血磷脂酸酰基转移酶(LPAAT)和二酰基甘油酰基转移酶(DGAT)]的遗传转化方法的关键进展,以提高脂质生产力。此外,研究人员还探索了消除障碍的策略,如抑制碳水化合物生物合成、抑制脂质降解、调节乙酰辅酶a途径以及光合工程(减小天线尺寸和操纵卡尔文循环)方法,以更有效地引导碳通量流向脂质生物合成。本综述还探讨了旨在改变脂肪酸组成和增强脂质分泌的脂质工程方法,以及操纵脂肪生成转录因子(dof型,bZIP, NRR和MYB)以促进转录组重编程。此外,人工智能算法已经被引入,因为它们有潜力通过加强微藻物种选择、生物质收获、优化培养和生物炼制转化过程来优化生物炼制系统,同时最大限度地降低运营成本、风险和环境影响。因此,本综述强调了微藻基因工程和人工智能在增强生物能源前体方面的潜力,从而在未来发展的循环生物经济框架内推进可持续生物燃料生产。
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引用次数: 0
A novel fractal fuzzy decision-making model for ESG-based prioritization of energy poverty alleviation strategies 基于esg的能源扶贫战略优先排序分形模糊决策模型
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102059
Serhat Yüksel , Serkan Eti , Hasan Dinçer , Orhan Özaydın , Hakan Yıldız
Energy poverty has emerged as a multidimensional challenge encompassing social, economic, and environmental dimensions, requiring decision frameworks capable of handling complexity, uncertainty, and heterogeneous stakeholder judgments. Although the literature offers numerous policy instruments to address energy poverty, there is limited methodological consensus on how such strategies should be systematically prioritized under uncertainty. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel fractal fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making framework grounded in environmental, social, and governance dimensions. The primary contribution of the study lies in the development and integration of fractal fuzzy sets with an expert weighting system, entropy-based criterion weighting, and MARCOS-based strategy ranking, complemented by ARAS-based robustness analysis. An illustrative case application based on a limited expert panel is employed as a proof-of-concept to demonstrate how the proposed framework operates and translates expert judgments into structured prioritization outcomes. The numerical results are presented to showcase the internal consistency, stability, and interpretability of the method rather than to provide context-independent policy prescriptions. Overall, the proposed framework offers a flexible and transparent methodological tool that can be adapted to different geographical, institutional, and policy contexts for evaluating energy poverty alleviation strategies under uncertainty.
能源贫困已经成为一个包含社会、经济和环境维度的多维挑战,需要能够处理复杂性、不确定性和不同利益相关者判断的决策框架。尽管文献提供了许多解决能源贫困的政策工具,但在不确定性下如何系统地确定这些战略的优先顺序方面,方法论上的共识有限。本研究通过提出一种基于环境、社会和治理维度的新型分形模糊多准则决策框架来解决这一差距。本研究的主要贡献在于将分形模糊集与专家加权系统、基于熵的准则加权和基于marcos的策略排序相结合,并辅以基于aras的鲁棒性分析。一个基于有限专家小组的说明性案例应用程序被用作概念验证,以演示所提议的框架如何运作并将专家判断转化为结构化的优先级结果。给出数值结果是为了展示该方法的内部一致性、稳定性和可解释性,而不是提供与上下文无关的政策处方。总的来说,拟议的框架提供了一种灵活和透明的方法工具,可以适应不同的地理、体制和政策背景,以评估不确定性下的能源扶贫战略。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of digital inclusive finance on Green low-carbon energy transition: Evidence from China 数字普惠金融对绿色低碳能源转型的影响:来自中国的证据
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102019
Jinhan Chen , Fengtao Guang
As the combination of digital technology and traditional inclusive finance, digital inclusive finance has displayed the huge potential to promote green low-carbon energy transition. Although theoretically, digital inclusive finance can contribute to achieving this goal, its practical effects and influential mechanisms need to be evaluated and elucidated. This paper aims to investigate the impact of digital inclusive finance on green low-carbon energy transition, exploring its heterogeneity characteristics in different dimensions and clarifying the underlying mechanism of their relationship. We mainly obtain the following findings: Firstly, digital inclusive finance exerts a positive impact on green low-carbon energy transition. This finding remains robust after a series of checks including changing the estimation method, replacing the measurement of key variables, eliminating potential policy disturbances and adding a lag term. Secondly, there are two channels through which digital inclusive finance promotes green low-carbon transition: technological innovation and government intervention. Thirdly, there is regional heterogeneity, path heterogeneity, and policy heterogeneity in the impact of digital inclusive finance. These findings provide a novel perspective for the improvement of green low-carbon energy transition efficiency and a reference for the government to formulate policies aiming at promoting digital inclusive finance.
数字普惠金融作为数字技术与传统普惠金融的结合,在推动绿色低碳能源转型方面显示出巨大潜力。虽然从理论上讲,数字普惠金融有助于实现这一目标,但其实际效果和影响机制有待评估和阐明。本文旨在研究数字普惠金融对绿色低碳能源转型的影响,探索其不同维度的异质性特征,厘清二者关系的内在机制。主要研究结果如下:第一,数字普惠金融对绿色低碳能源转型具有积极影响。经过一系列的检查,包括改变估计方法、替换关键变量的测量、消除潜在的政策干扰和添加滞后项,这一发现仍然是稳健的。其次,数字普惠金融促进绿色低碳转型的渠道有两个:技术创新和政府干预。三是数字普惠金融影响存在区域异质性、路径异质性和政策异质性。这些发现为提高绿色低碳能源转型效率提供了新的视角,也为政府制定促进数字普惠金融的政策提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Strategy Reviews
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