Energy Strategy Reviews最新文献_第6页

Digital economy and the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture: Dual heterogeneity perspective 数字经济与农业污染治理与碳减排的协同效应：双重异质性视角

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101992

Mengyang Hou , Yingxu Shen , Jin Bai , Feifan Rong , Weinan Lu , Zenglei Xi

Digital economy plays a crucial role in promoting synergistic management of agricultural pollution control and carbon reduction. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022, this study measures the synergistic effect of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture (SEPCCR-Ag) and analyzes its spatial distribution. Building on an analysis of the average impact of digital economy on the SEPCCR-Ag, a geographically weighted quantile model (GWQR) is constructed to further examine the spatial heterogeneity and response heterogeneity in this impact. Results indicate that: (1) Although the overall trend of SEPCCR-Ag has slightly declined, there is a noticeable spatial imbalance in its distribution, without leading to polarization. (2) After addressing endogeneity issues, digital economy can significantly enhance SEPCCR-Ag, with its positive impact being more pronounced in the major grain-producing areas and the major grain-marketing areas. (3) The positive role of digital economy on SEPCCR-Ag exhibits both spatial heterogeneity and response heterogeneity. As the quantiles of synergistic effect rise, areas with higher levels of synergistic effect exhibit stronger positive influences of digital economy, with an expanding coverage area. The geographical range where digital economy has a stronger positive effect shifts from major grain-marketing areas along the southeast coast to major grain-producing areas in the Northeast, North China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The spatial distribution of digital economy's positive impact stable across different quantiles. To achieve the multi-goals synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction in agriculture, policies should be tailored to local conditions, strengthening digital economy and technology support based on local farmland environmental endowments and socio-economic conditions.

数字经济对促进农业污染治理与碳减排协同管理具有重要作用。利用2011 - 2022年中国30个省区的面板数据，对农业污染治理与碳减排的协同效应（SEPCCR-Ag）进行测度，并分析其空间分布。在分析数字经济对SEPCCR-Ag平均影响的基础上，构建了地理加权分位数模型（GWQR），进一步考察了数字经济对SEPCCR-Ag影响的空间异质性和响应异质性。结果表明：(1)SEPCCR-Ag的总体趋势略有下降，但在空间分布上存在明显的不平衡，未出现两极分化。(2)在解决内生问题后，数字经济能够显著提升SEPCCR-Ag，其正向影响在粮食主产区和粮食主销区更为明显。(3)数字经济对SEPCCR-Ag的积极作用表现出空间异质性和响应异质性。随着协同效应分位数的增加，协同效应水平越高的地区，数字经济的正向影响越强，覆盖范围越广。数字经济积极效应较强的地理范围由东南沿海粮食主销区向东北、华北、长江中下游粮食主产区转移。数字经济积极影响的空间分布在不同分位数上趋于稳定。要实现农业污染治理和碳减排的多目标协同，应因地制宜，根据当地农田环境禀赋和社会经济条件，加强数字经济和技术支持。

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引用次数: 0

An analysis of the risk narrative disclosed by publicly traded biofuel firms 对公开交易的生物燃料公司披露的风险叙述的分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101927

Carlos J.O. Trejo-Pech, Bishal Bista, T. Edward Yu, James A. Larson

Given the high level of uncertainty prevalent in the immature biofuels industry, the primary objective of this study was to identify and assess the risk factors that biofuel firms face. The study evaluated the risk factors, or specific risks, reported by biofuel firms to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over five years. The analysis was conducted for all firms in the sample, as well as for subsets of focused and diversified biofuel firms. Based on a biofuels industry risk structure derived from previous research, we coded and analyzed 4310 risk narrative disclosures, extracts from firms’ annual reports filed with the SEC. The study evaluated two risk metrics—prevalence and relevance—across 25 specific risks. Risk relevance, the most comprehensive metric, was validated by comparing it with two widely used risk metrics—which measure overall firm risk rather than specific risks—, the Z-score and the debt-to-equity ratio. Identification of risk metrics by quadrants, combined with quantile regression analysis, allowed us to identify the critical risks in the biofuels industry. The critical risks, particularly for focused biofuel firms, were biofuel regulation, biofuel markets, feedstock markets, conversion technologies, profitable operations, financing, and risk management. To a lesser extent, environmental and contracting risks were critical. The results of this study can guide policymakers and firm managers in developing a compelling policy mix and strategies to address the challenges faced by the biofuels industry.

鉴于不成熟的生物燃料行业普遍存在高度的不确定性，本研究的主要目的是识别和评估生物燃料公司面临的风险因素。该研究评估了生物燃料公司在五年内向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）报告的风险因素或具体风险。该分析对样本中的所有公司以及重点和多样化生物燃料公司的子集进行了分析。基于之前研究得出的生物燃料行业风险结构，我们对4310份风险披露进行了编码和分析，这些披露摘自公司向美国证券交易委员会提交的年度报告。该研究评估了25个特定风险的两项风险指标——患病率和相关性。风险相关性是最全面的指标，通过将其与两种广泛使用的风险指标（衡量公司整体风险而不是特定风险）、z分数和债务权益比进行比较来验证。通过象限识别风险指标，结合分位数回归分析，使我们能够识别生物燃料行业的关键风险。关键的风险，特别是对重点生物燃料公司来说，是生物燃料监管、生物燃料市场、原料市场、转化技术、盈利操作、融资和风险管理。在较小程度上，环境和承包风险是至关重要的。这项研究的结果可以指导决策者和企业管理者制定令人信服的政策组合和战略，以应对生物燃料行业面临的挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Techno-economic optimization of hydrogen-based hybrid renewable energy systems for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa: Case study of a photovoltaic/wind/hydrogen system in Dargalla, Cameroon 撒哈拉以南非洲农村电气化氢基混合可再生能源系统的技术经济优化：喀麦隆达加拉光伏/风能/氢系统的案例研究

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101974

Nasser Yimen, Paul Salomon Ngohe-Ekam, Alain Christian Biboum, Thierry Roger Mondoue Bouodo, Urbain Nzotcha, Rolland Djomi, Oumarou Hamandjoda

Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are an effective tool for addressing the challenges of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, their viability is limited by the lifespan, environmental impacts, high costs, and inefficiency of conventional energy storage technologies (battery and pumped-hydro). This study examines a hydrogen-based energy storage system, combined with photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, for the electrification of Dargalla, a village in northern Cameroon. The goal is to meet community and agricultural electricity needs while optimizing the system. The analysis utilized HOMER software to simulate, model, and optimize the system. The optimal architecture consisted of a 50-kW photovoltaic (PV) array, a 10-kW wind turbine, a 10-kW fuel cell, a 30-kW electrolyser, a 25-kg hydrogen tank, and a 10-kW converter. The optimised system's net present cost and cost of energy were assessed at USD 138,202 and USD 0.443/kWh, respectively. Sensitivity analysis results showed that areas with high wind speeds would be mainly suitable for the proposed system. Moreover, with the upcoming decrease in the costs of fuel cells and PV components, such systems are expected to become more economically viable in the future, leading to the conclusion that integration of hydrogen-based energy storage technology in HRESs in SSA can effectively address the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDG) and the historic Paris Climate Agreement (HCA).

混合可再生能源系统（HRESs）是解决撒哈拉以南非洲农村电气化挑战的有效工具。然而，它们的可行性受到传统储能技术（电池和抽水蓄能）的寿命、环境影响、高成本和低效率的限制。本研究考察了一个氢基储能系统，结合光伏（PV）和风能，用于喀麦隆北部Dargalla村的电气化。目标是在优化系统的同时满足社区和农业用电需求。分析利用HOMER软件对系统进行仿真、建模和优化。最佳结构包括一个50千瓦的光伏（PV）阵列、一个10千瓦的风力涡轮机、一个10千瓦的燃料电池、一个30千瓦的电解槽、一个25公斤的氢罐和一个10千瓦的转换器。优化后的系统净当前成本和能源成本分别为138,202美元和0.443美元/千瓦时。敏感性分析结果表明，高风速地区将主要适合该系统。此外，随着燃料电池和光伏组件成本的下降，这种系统有望在未来变得更加经济可行，从而得出结论，在SSA的HRESs中集成氢基储能技术可以有效地解决联合国可持续发展目标（UNSDG）和历史性的巴黎气候协议（HCA）。

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引用次数: 0

Do price signals matter? Insights from households’ natural gas consumption in Iran 价格信号重要吗？来自伊朗家庭天然气消费的洞察

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101969

Mohammad Mahdi Jafari, GholamReza Keshavarz Haddad

This study investigates the price elasticity of residential natural gas demand in Iran, using a sample form nationwide database of administrative household billing records from 2013 to 2023. Our work contributes to the literature by analyzing household-level natural gas demand during Iran’s policy-driven price reforms. The state-controlled market provides a quasi-experimental setting, where exogenous administrative price changes eliminate confounding market dynamics. To address key methodological challenges — particularly price endogeneity arising from increasing block pricing — we employ a simulated instrumental variable (IV) approach. The method exploits exogenous price variation independent of individual consumption levels, marking a novel application of simulated IV in natural gas demand analysis under increasing block pricing. Unlike previous studies that estimate a single average elasticity, we provide the disaggregated estimates of price elasticity by consumption tiers and seasons. We find substantial heterogeneity in price responsiveness: demand is more elastic in winter −0.15 than in summer −0.10, and elasticity increases across consumption tiers (from −0.08 in the first tier to −0.16 in the 12th tier). These findings offer valuable insights into pricing policy dynamics and demand behavior, with practical implications for policymakers aiming to promote energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and equitable access to natural gas.

本研究利用2013年至2023年伊朗全国行政家庭账单记录数据库的样本，调查了伊朗居民天然气需求的价格弹性。我们通过分析伊朗政策驱动的价格改革期间家庭层面的天然气需求，为文献做出了贡献。国家控制的市场提供了一个准实验环境，在这个环境中，外生的行政价格变化消除了混乱的市场动态。为了解决关键的方法挑战-特别是由于大宗定价增加而产生的价格内生性-我们采用了模拟工具变量（IV）方法。该方法利用了独立于个人消费水平的外生价格变化，标志着模拟IV在大宗定价不断上涨的天然气需求分析中的新应用。与以往估计单一平均弹性的研究不同，我们提供了按消费层次和季节分类的价格弹性估计。我们发现价格响应存在很大的异质性：冬季- 0.15比夏季- 0.10的需求更具弹性，并且弹性在消费层之间增加（从第一级的- 0.08到第12层的- 0.16）。这些发现为定价政策动态和需求行为提供了有价值的见解，对旨在提高能源效率、环境可持续性和公平获取天然气的政策制定者具有实际意义。

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引用次数: 0

Can the internet improve green total factor productivity? Evidence from prefecture-level cities of China 互联网能提高绿色全要素生产率吗？来自中国地级市的证据

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101970

Binbin Yu , Changlong Ye , Mujia Feng

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the Internet has gradually become an important driving force for China's green environmental governance and green industrial production and is increasingly developing into a new advantage for China's green and low-carbon development. This paper empirically examines the role of Internet development in influencing green total factor productivity and the spatial spillover effect using the spatial Durbin model and the mediation effect model. The results show that Internet development significantly enhances green total factor productivity in local and neighbouring regions (direct effect coefficient is 0.0259, p < 0.05; indirect effect coefficient is 0.5649, p < 0.01), and the conclusion passes a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity analyses show that the impact of Internet development on green total factor productivity exhibits heterogeneous characteristics across cities with different geographic locations, administrative levels, environmental regulation intensities, and resource endowments. Mechanism tests show that the Internet can enhance green total factor productivity by promoting technological innovation. Interestingly, although the development of the Internet significantly promotes the rationalization of industrial structure, the effect of industrial structure adjustment on green total factor productivity is not significant. The above findings further support the rationality and scientific validity of China's "Internet plus" development strategy and, in particular, provide feasible ideas and empirical evidence for the use of the Internet to enhance green total factor productivity.

“十四五”期间，互联网逐渐成为中国绿色环境治理和绿色工业生产的重要动力，并日益发展成为中国绿色低碳发展的新优势。本文运用空间德宾模型和中介效应模型实证检验了互联网发展对绿色全要素生产率和空间溢出效应的影响。结果表明，互联网发展显著提高了本地及邻近地区的绿色全要素生产率（直接影响系数为0.0259,p <； 0.05；间接影响系数为0.5649,p <； 0.01），结论通过了一系列稳稳性检验。异质性分析表明，互联网发展对绿色全要素生产率的影响在不同地理位置、行政级别、环境规制强度和资源禀赋的城市间呈现异质性特征。机制检验表明，互联网可以通过促进技术创新来提高绿色全要素生产率。有趣的是，虽然互联网的发展显著促进了产业结构的合理化，但产业结构调整对绿色全要素生产率的影响并不显著。以上研究结果进一步支持了中国“互联网+”发展战略的合理性和科学有效性，尤其为利用互联网提升绿色全要素生产率提供了可行思路和实证证据。

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引用次数: 0

Turbine siting in relation to wind speed: Insights from historical deployment patterns for energy system modeling 涡轮机选址与风速的关系：从能源系统建模的历史部署模式的见解

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101990

Niklas Jakobsson , Carin Lundqvist , Fredrik Hedenus , Yodefia Rahmad , Xiaoming Kan

Wind turbine output heavily depends on the wind speed at the deployment site. Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) typically allocate turbines in a cost-optimal manner, leading to siting at the windiest locations. However, such allocation methods lack an empirical base and risk overestimating the cost-competitiveness of wind power compared to real-life. This study assesses the historical siting of onshore wind turbines with respect to wind speed across 25 regions and introduces a heuristic method to represent wind power deployment patterns within ESOMs. Additionally, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing wind turbine allocation methods in ESOMs. Our results show that turbines are typically sited at locations with slightly higher wind speeds than the regional mean, and new turbines within each region are consistently placed at sites with similar average wind speeds each year. The heuristics that best match historical deployment patterns tend to allocate 80–100 % of wind capacity to the 70th to 90th percentiles of the windiest areas. The cost-optimal turbine siting approach consistently favors windier locations compared to historical deployment. Overall, the findings present a promising avenue for incorporating historical data to improve the representation of wind power in future energy system modeling.

风力涡轮机的输出很大程度上取决于部署地点的风速。能源系统优化模型（ESOMs）通常以成本最优的方式分配涡轮机，从而将涡轮机安置在风力最大的位置。然而，这种分配方法缺乏经验基础，而且与现实生活相比，存在高估风电成本竞争力的风险。本研究根据25个地区的风速评估了陆上风力涡轮机的历史位置，并引入了一种启发式方法来表示ESOMs内的风力部署模式。此外，我们对ESOMs中现有的风力涡轮机分配方法进行了全面评估。我们的研究结果表明，涡轮机通常位于风速略高于区域平均风速的位置，并且每个区域内的新涡轮机始终放置在每年平均风速相似的位置。最符合历史部署模式的启发式方法倾向于将80-100 %的风电容量分配给风力最大的地区的第70 - 90百分位数。与历史部署相比，成本最优的涡轮机选址方法始终倾向于风力更大的位置。总的来说，研究结果为整合历史数据以改善风能在未来能源系统建模中的表现提供了一条有希望的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Challenges faced by China compared with the US in reducing methane emissions: A decomposition and decoupling analysis 中美在减少甲烷排放方面面临的挑战：分解与脱钩分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101983

Shasha Huang , Xinzhou Peng , Qiaoli Xie

Methane (CH₄) is a potent, short-lived greenhouse gas that is crucial for achieving global temperature control targets. As the largest CH₄ emitters globally, China and the United States (US) have the capacity and responsibility to lead global CH₄ reduction. However, the differences in CH₄ emission drivers between the two remain poorly constrained. This study examined the driving factors of CH₄ emissions in these countries during 1991–2022 by combining the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index and Production-theoretical Decomposition Analysis. The main findings are as follows: From 1991 to 2022, CH₄ emissions in China rose continuously, whereas those in the US gradually declined. The increase in CH₄ emissions from China was driven by industry, whereas the reduction in US emissions was attributable to mitigation efforts in the industry and service sectors. The economic output effect is the primary driver of increasing CH₄ emissions, whereas the energy intensity effect reduces emissions. The expanding gap in CH₄ emissions between the two countries can be largely explained by the less-optimized economic structure, large population, and high energy intensity in China. These factors were partially offset by the lower economic output effect in China. In the US, strong decoupling was prevalent throughout the study period, except 2016–2019. In contrast, China exhibited weak decoupling between economic growth and CH₄ emissions, except 1996–2000. Decoupling indices for CH₄ emission intensity, energy intensity, and economic structure were critical in both countries, facilitating decoupling. These findings provide insights for future CH₄ emission reduction strategies in China and the US.

甲烷（CH4）是一种强效、短寿命的温室气体，对实现全球温度控制目标至关重要。作为全球最大的CH4排放国，中国和美国有能力也有责任引领全球减少CH4。然而，两者之间CH4排放驱动因素的差异仍然没有得到很好的约束。本文采用对数平均分割指数和生产理论分解分析相结合的方法，研究了1991-2022年这些国家CH4排放的驱动因素。结果表明：1991 - 2022年，中国CH4排放量持续上升，而美国CH4排放量逐渐下降。中国甲烷排放量的增加是由工业推动的，而美国排放量的减少则是由于工业和服务部门的减缓努力。经济产出效应是CH4排放增加的主要驱动力，而能源强度效应则降低了CH4排放。两国CH4排放差距扩大的主要原因是中国经济结构优化程度较低、人口多、能源强度高。这些因素被中国较低的经济产出效应部分抵消。在美国，除2016-2019年外，整个研究期间普遍存在强脱钩现象。相比之下，除了1996-2000年，中国的经济增长与CH4排放呈弱脱钩关系。两国的CH4排放强度、能源强度和经济结构的脱钩指标至关重要，促进了脱钩。这些发现为中国和美国未来的CH4减排策略提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

The cognitive value, attitude assessment, and behavioral occurrence of residents' low-carbon consumption: A test based on MASEM 居民低碳消费的认知价值、态度评估与行为发生：基于MASEM的检验

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101989

Gaofei Ren , Yaoyao Chen , Shenghui Yao , Maobao Yang , Jianchun Xiong

Global climate change caused by carbon emissions has become a mainstream scientific consensus. Identifying the key factors influencing low-carbon consumption behavior and understanding their mechanisms are crucial for mitigating climate change driven by human activities. However, existing studies lack a systematic quantitative assessment of the key determinants of residents' low-carbon consumption behavior and have not reached a consensus on their underlying mechanisms. This study develops a model to elucidate the mechanism underlying residents' low-carbon consumption behavior. It uses Meta-analysis Structural Equation Modeling (MASEM) to integrate and test 149 independent effect sizes with 44,414 research samples from 51 empirical studies. The findings indicate that psychological cognition and external context are two key drivers of residents' perceived value of low-carbon consumption. The evaluation of low-carbon consumption value and intention mediate the positive relationship between cognitive value and behavior occurrence sequentially. These results reveal the key factors and mechanisms behind residents' low-carbon consumption behavior. They offer policy recommendations for governments to promote low-carbon consumption among residents.

碳排放导致的全球气候变化已经成为主流科学共识。确定影响低碳消费行为的关键因素并了解其机制对于减缓人类活动驱动的气候变化至关重要。然而，现有研究对居民低碳消费行为的关键决定因素缺乏系统的定量评估，对其潜在机制尚未达成共识。本研究建立了一个模型来解释居民低碳消费行为的机制。采用meta分析结构方程模型（MASEM）对51项实证研究的44,414个研究样本进行了149个独立效应量的整合和检验。研究结果表明，心理认知和外部环境是居民低碳消费感知价值的两个关键驱动因素。低碳消费价值评价和低碳消费意愿依次中介认知价值与行为发生之间的正相关关系。这些结果揭示了居民低碳消费行为背后的关键因素和机制。他们为政府促进居民低碳消费提供了政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

European CO2 emissions persistence Analysis. A comparative IPCC contributor study with fractional integration 欧洲二氧化碳排放持续性分析。具有分数积分的IPCC贡献因子比较研究

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101986

Ana María Molleda , Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor , Juan Infante

This paper investigates the persistence of CO₂ emissions in the largest European economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands) from 1970 to 2023 by using a fractional integration framework. With this purpose, we contribute to the existing literature by investigating two research questions. First, to assess persistence in the specific subsectors, organized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) standard categories; and second, to study their cross-country and cross-sectoral long-term and short-term relationships. The main findings suggest clear evidence of persistent patterns in emissions and their associated components, with a significant negative trend in all cases except France. Regarding the relationship between crossed components, we find evidence that transportation and industry demonstrate a high degree of correlation, yet no evidence of cointegration is observed. Conversely, waste shows a high level of cointegration across countries but no correlation. We find different patterns for the remaining components, with no discernible relationship observed across sectors within a single country or across different countries for the same sector. These findings suggest that despite the EU's substantial commitment to reducing carbon emissions, there appears to be no coordinated strategy across the different countries to fully implement these policies.

本文采用分数积分框架研究了1970年至2023年欧洲最大经济体（德国、法国、意大利、西班牙和荷兰）二氧化碳排放的持续性。为此，我们通过调查两个研究问题来对现有文献做出贡献。首先，根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的标准类别，评估具体分部门的持久性；二是研究其跨国、跨部门的长期和短期关系。主要调查结果表明，有明确证据表明，排放及其相关成分的模式持续存在，除法国外，所有国家都呈现明显的负趋势。关于交叉成分之间的关系，我们发现有证据表明交通运输和工业表现出高度的相关性，但没有观察到协整的证据。相反，浪费在各国之间显示出高水平的协整，但没有相关性。我们发现其余组成部分的模式不同，在一个国家的不同部门之间或同一部门的不同国家之间没有观察到明显的关系。这些发现表明，尽管欧盟在减少碳排放方面做出了重大承诺，但在不同国家之间似乎没有协调一致的战略来全面实施这些政策。

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引用次数: 0

New energy demonstration city policy and urban energy system resilience: Evidence from China 新能源示范城市政策与城市能源系统弹性：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101972

Jia-Hui Peng , Ke-Liang Wang , Zhen-Hua Zhang

As climate-induced disruptions and energy security risks intensify, enhancing the resilience of energy systems has become a critical priority for sustainable urban development. This study investigates the impact of China's New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) policy on urban energy system resilience (ESR) using panel data from 280 Chinese cities over the period 2010–2022. We construct a multidimensional resilience index encompassing robustness, restorability, and adaptability, and apply a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework to address endogeneity and high-dimensional control variables. The findings indicate that: (1) The NEDC policy significantly improves urban ESR, with robust results from various tests. (2) The mediation effect reveals that green technological innovation, institutional guidance, and informatization level are vital influential channels. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy's effects are stronger in central and western cities, cities with higher administrative status, and those with better digital infrastructure. These findings suggest that policymakers should continue expanding pilot programs, strengthen support for green innovation and digital infrastructure, and design targeted instruments for resource-constrained regions to ensure the security and stability of the energy system.

随着气候引起的破坏和能源安全风险加剧，增强能源系统的抵御能力已成为可持续城市发展的关键优先事项。本文利用2010-2022年间280个中国城市的面板数据，研究了中国新能源示范城市政策对城市能源系统弹性的影响。我们构建了一个包含鲁棒性、恢复性和适应性的多维弹性指数，并应用双机器学习（DML）框架来解决内生性和高维控制变量。研究结果表明：(1)NEDC政策显著提高了城市ESR，各项测试结果均较为稳健。(2)中介效应表明，绿色技术创新、制度引导和信息化水平是重要的影响渠道。(3)异质性分析表明，政策效应在中西部城市、行政地位较高的城市和数字基础设施较好的城市中更强。这些发现表明，政策制定者应继续扩大试点项目，加强对绿色创新和数字基础设施的支持，并为资源受限地区设计有针对性的工具，以确保能源系统的安全和稳定。

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