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Fossil-fuel subsidies and energy-firm outcomes in the European Union: Economic and environmental performance 欧盟的化石燃料补贴和能源公司成果:经济和环境绩效
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102040
Huan Huu Nguyen, Duc Huu Nguyen, Vu Minh Ngo
This study examines the economic and environmental impacts of fossil fuel subsidies in the European Union (EU) during the energy crisis triggered by the 2022 Ukraine war, focusing on their implications for corporate performance and sustainability. Using a panel dataset of 100 publicly listed energy firms across the EU from 2019 to 2023, including 44 fossil fuel companies and 56 renewable energy companies, and employing a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) methodology, we assess the causal effects of increased fossil fuel subsidies on financial performance and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) outcomes. Our findings reveal that these subsidies did not significantly increase fossil fuel consumption or reduce price elasticity of demand, challenging their conventional justification as tools to stimulate energy use or stabilize market sensitivity. However, the surge in subsidies during 2022 significantly improved the financial performance of fossil fuel firms, as reflected by higher Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). This financial gain, however, came at the expense of ESG performance, with firms reallocating resources from sustainability initiatives to enhance short-term profitability. These results underscore a critical interaction between immediate financial stabilization and long-term environmental commitments.
本研究考察了2022年乌克兰战争引发的能源危机期间欧盟(EU)化石燃料补贴的经济和环境影响,重点关注其对企业绩效和可持续性的影响。利用2019年至2023年欧盟100家公开上市能源公司的面板数据集,包括44家化石燃料公司和56家可再生能源公司,并采用差异中的差异(DiD)方法,我们评估了化石燃料补贴增加对财务绩效和环境、社会和治理(ESG)结果的因果影响。我们的研究结果表明,这些补贴并没有显著增加化石燃料消费或降低需求的价格弹性,这挑战了它们作为刺激能源使用或稳定市场敏感性工具的传统理由。然而,2022年期间补贴的激增显着改善了化石燃料公司的财务业绩,这反映在更高的资产回报率(ROA)和股本回报率(ROE)上。然而,这种财务收益是以牺牲ESG绩效为代价的,因为企业将资源从可持续发展计划中重新分配,以提高短期盈利能力。这些结果强调了当前金融稳定与长期环境承诺之间的重要相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon tax and household energy choices: A regional study of the UK 碳税与家庭能源选择:英国的区域研究
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102004
Abbas Khan , Muhammad Yar Khan , Abdulrahman Alomair , Abdulaziz S. Al Naim
This study examines carbon taxation's impact on UK households' energy choices, focusing on socioeconomic factors and fuel substitution using household microdata in a Multinomial Logit (MNL) framework. Rural households, reliant on costly, carbon-intensive fuels like heating oil and LPG, are significantly affected by carbon price changes, while urban households have cheaper alternatives. Findings show that rising carbon tax increases carbon-intensive fuel costs, prompting urban households to boost combined electricity and mains gas use from 32.8 % to 50.6 %, while reducing LPG and electricity use from 12.3 % to 6.6 %, and heating oil and electricity from 9.7 % to 6.1 %. Conversely, rural households, facing fewer choices, turn to more expensive fuels; combined electricity and LPG use rises from 14.1 % to 39.3 %, and electricity and heating oil use from 9.1 % to 36.1 %. This study provides novel UK-specific insights into regional and socio-economic disparities in energy transitions under carbon taxation. It highlights the disproportionate burden on low-income and rural households, emphasizing the need for targeted revenue recycling, regional support, and measures to combat energy poverty. The findings offer practical guidance for policymakers to design equitable carbon tax policies and ensure a just transition to a low-carbon economy.
本研究考察了碳税对英国家庭能源选择的影响,重点关注社会经济因素和燃料替代,使用多项Logit (MNL)框架中的家庭微观数据。依赖取暖油和液化石油气等昂贵的碳密集型燃料的农村家庭受到碳价格变化的严重影响,而城市家庭则有更便宜的替代品。研究结果显示,碳税的增加增加了碳密集型燃料的成本,促使城市家庭将电力和燃气的综合使用量从32.8% %提高到50.6% %,同时将液化石油气和电力的使用量从12. %降低到6. %,将取暖油和电力的使用量从9. %降低到6.1 %。相反,面对更少选择的农村家庭转而使用更昂贵的燃料;电力和液化石油气的综合使用量从14.1% %增加到39.3% %,电力和取暖油的使用量从9.1% %增加到36.1% %。这项研究为碳税下能源转型的区域和社会经济差异提供了英国特有的新见解。报告强调了低收入和农村家庭所承受的不成比例的负担,强调了有针对性的收入回收、区域支持和消除能源贫困措施的必要性。研究结果为决策者设计公平的碳税政策和确保向低碳经济的公正过渡提供了实用指导。
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引用次数: 0
Back to the past? Discourse coalitions in Italy's emerging nuclear policy debate 回到过去?意大利新兴核政策辩论中的话语联盟
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102035
Paola Arrigoni, Claudia Mariotti, Luca Germano, Renata Lizzi, Laura Mastroianni, Andrea Prontera
Nuclear energy is a technology that has long been subject to controversy, shaped by major global events, shifting public opinion and volatile policy agendas. Among industrialised democracies, Italy is a particularly distinctive case. Following a pioneering role in the 1950s and an ambitious, albeit partially implemented, nuclear programme in the 1970s, the Chernobyl disaster and the 1987 referendum resulted in the complete phase-out of nuclear power. A second referendum in 2011, following the Fukushima disaster, reaffirmed public opposition to any attempt to revive nuclear power. Despite these precedents, nuclear energy has recently returned to the political agenda. This initiative is embedded in broader European debates on the potential of nuclear power in decarbonization and energy security in the context of the crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This article uses discourse network analysis of media data to investigate the re-emerging debate on nuclear policy in Italy. Specifically, it examines the structure of the debate, the types of actors involved, their framing strategies, how discourse has evolved over time and how pro- and anti-nuclear coalitions have formed. The findings reveal that the Italian nuclear policy debate exhibits a hub-and-spoke structure, with influence concentrated among a small number of dominant actors. Over time, the debate has evolved from initial structuration to consolidation and pluralization in terms of actors, coalitions, and concepts. Nevertheless, despite some differences, pro-nuclear actors and coalitions retain significant visibility and influence.
核能是一项长期以来饱受争议的技术,受到重大全球事件、不断变化的公众舆论和不稳定的政策议程的影响。在工业化民主国家中,意大利是一个特别独特的例子。在20世纪50年代发挥先锋作用和20世纪70年代雄心勃勃(尽管部分实施)的核计划之后,切尔诺贝利灾难和1987年的全民公决导致了核电的完全淘汰。2011年福岛灾难之后的第二次公投再次表明,公众反对任何恢复核电的企图。尽管有这些先例,核能最近又回到了政治议程上。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发危机的背景下,欧洲就核电在脱碳和能源安全方面的潜力展开了更广泛的辩论。本文使用媒体数据的话语网络分析来研究意大利重新出现的核政策辩论。具体来说,它考察了辩论的结构,参与者的类型,他们的框架策略,话语如何随着时间的推移而演变,以及亲核和反核联盟是如何形成的。研究结果显示,意大利核政策辩论呈现出一种轮辐结构,影响力集中在少数占主导地位的参与者手中。随着时间的推移,辩论已经从最初的结构演变为在行动者、联盟和概念方面的巩固和多元化。然而,尽管存在一些分歧,亲核行为体和联盟仍保持着显著的知名度和影响力。
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引用次数: 0
Stoking the flames of change: AI-driven energy transition in urban China through nonlinear dynamics and spatial spillover effect 燃起变革之火:基于非线性动力学和空间溢出效应的人工智能驱动的中国城市能源转型
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102042
Shunshun Yu , Yuxin Zhang , Lu Jin , Jianzhong Xiao , Jiachao Peng
Global warming and energy security challenges have intensified globally, compelling nations to pursue sustainable energy transition pathways. Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a pivotal role in addressing complex systemic challenges and enhancing industrial efficiency, and is widely recognized as a critical catalyst for efficiency transformation and economic advancement. This study employs panel data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China, spanning the period 2007–2021, to empirically examine the relationship between AI and energy transition. The key findings are that: AI significantly promotes energy transition development, and this effect is mediated through its role in driving digital upgrades and green transformation of industrial chains. The association between AI and energy transition exhibits nonlinearity: at low levels of AI development, AI exerts the strongest driving effect on the Energy Transition Index; at moderate AI levels, this driving effect weakens; and at high AI levels, the driving effect strengthens again, presenting a distinct U-shaped pattern. AI exerts a significant positive spatial spillover effect on energy transition, indicating that technological diffusion generates favorable impacts on neighboring regions. Regional heterogeneity analysis reveals marked disparities in AI's influence on energy transition across China, exhibiting a gradient effect characterized by “strengthening in eastern regions, stabilization in central territories, and differentiation in western regions”. This research provides valuable guidance for policymakers by highlighting AI's pivotal role in advancing energy transformation.
全球变暖和能源安全挑战在全球范围内加剧,迫使各国寻求可持续的能源转型途径。人工智能(AI)在解决复杂的系统性挑战和提高工业效率方面发挥着关键作用,被广泛认为是效率转化和经济发展的关键催化剂。本研究采用中国282个地级市2007-2021年的面板数据,实证检验人工智能与能源转型之间的关系。研究发现:人工智能显著促进能源转型发展,并通过其对产业链数字化升级和绿色转型的推动作用来中介。人工智能与能源转型之间存在非线性关系:在人工智能发展水平较低时,人工智能对能源转型指数的驱动作用最强;在中等人工智能水平下,这种驱动作用减弱;在高人工智能水平下,驱动效应再次增强,呈现出明显的u型模式。人工智能对能源转移具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,表明技术扩散对相邻区域产生了有利影响。区域异质性分析表明,人工智能对中国能源转型的影响存在显著差异,呈现出“东部加强、中部稳定、西部分化”的梯度效应。这项研究强调了人工智能在推进能源转型中的关键作用,为政策制定者提供了宝贵的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Renewable energy sector and energy transition in G-10 countries: Role of price, quantity and outcome based monetary policy 10国集团可再生能源部门和能源转型:基于价格、数量和结果的货币政策的作用
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102030
Muhammad Khalid Anser , Dua Hassan , Saira Tufail , Shahzad Alvi , Mehboob Ul Hassan
The global transition toward renewable energy is vital for achieving climate goals and strengthening energy security. The primary objective of the study is to examine the impact of different stances of monetary policy, namely price-based, quantity-based, and outcome-based monetary policy, on renewable energy dynamics in G10 economies, contributing to the evolving discourse on green central banking and the integration of low-carbon transition objectives within modern monetary policy. The empirical evidence of the study is based on the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares approach and Vector Error Correction Mechanism for both short and long run dynamics, a dynamic common correlated estimator to capture slope heterogeneity, quantile regression for asymmetric relationship, and panel structural VAR for shock propagation and variance contribution. The empirical findings reveal that monetary policy exerts heterogeneous yet significant effects on renewable energy and energy transition across G10 economies. Price-based policy exhibits a partially green effect, restricting renewable investment under high interest rates but supporting long-term transition via structural efficiency gains. Quantity-based policy shows consistently positive impacts by easing liquidity constraints and stimulating renewable deployment. Outcome-based policy, proxied by financial development, yields limited or even adverse effects due to structural lock-ins and path dependence in carbon-intensive finance. The results also confirm asymmetric and dynamic transmission, with liquidity shocks generating the strongest and most persistent responses. This study has critical policy implications regarding the integration of renewable energy development into the monetary policy framework by leveraging quantity-based tools and by addressing the carbon lock-in and path dependencies associated with financial development through accelerating divestment from fossil fuels.
全球向可再生能源转型对于实现气候目标和加强能源安全至关重要。本研究的主要目标是研究不同立场的货币政策(即基于价格、基于数量和基于结果的货币政策)对G10经济体可再生能源动态的影响,为绿色央行政策和现代货币政策中低碳转型目标的整合做出贡献。该研究的经验证据基于短期和长期动态的完全修正普通最小二乘方法和矢量误差校正机制,一个动态的共同相关估计器,用于捕获斜率异质性,分位数回归用于不对称关系,面板结构VAR用于冲击传播和方差贡献。实证结果表明,货币政策对G10经济体的可再生能源和能源转型具有异质性但显著的影响。基于价格的政策显示出部分绿色效应,在高利率下限制可再生能源投资,但通过结构效率的提高支持长期转型。以数量为基础的政策通过缓解流动性限制和刺激可再生能源的部署,始终显示出积极的影响。以金融发展为代表的基于结果的政策,由于碳密集型金融的结构锁定和路径依赖,产生有限甚至不利的影响。结果还证实了不对称和动态传导,流动性冲击产生最强烈和最持久的反应。通过利用基于数量的工具,并通过加速从化石燃料中撤资来解决与金融发展相关的碳锁定和路径依赖,本研究对将可再生能源发展纳入货币政策框架具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional barriers to digital transformation in China’s renewable energy: Evidence from Ningxia 中国可再生能源数字化转型的制度障碍:来自宁夏的证据
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102028
Hui Jun Wang , Wei Ying Chong , Bing Nan Wang
The digital transformation of the energy sector is vital to achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development goals. In China, significant disparities in the adoption of these technologies persist across regions and enterprise types, yet the underlying institutional and organizational mechanisms remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by conducting a comparative case study of Ningxia's solar energy sector, grounded in an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) and Socio-Technical Systems (STS) theoretical framework. Based on semi-structured interviews, field observations, and policy analysis, the findings reveal divergent digital trajectories for large enterprises (LEs) and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). LEs benefit from advanced capabilities, strong policy support, and organizational readiness, creating a virtuous cycle of adoption. In contrast, SMEs face a self-reinforcing socio-technical trap where high costs, limited skills, and unequal policy access create interconnected barriers. The study theorizes these findings into testable propositions and concludes that without differentiated policy instruments and targeted capacity-building, broad digitalization policies may unintentionally widen the existing digital divide. The findings contribute a nuanced, mechanism-based explanation of uneven informatization with implications for energy governance in developing and transition economies.
能源部门的数字化转型对于实现碳中和和可持续发展目标至关重要。在中国,不同地区和不同类型的企业在采用这些技术方面存在显著差异,但潜在的体制和组织机制仍未得到充分探索。本研究立足于综合技术-组织-环境(TOE)和社会-技术系统(STS)理论框架,通过对宁夏太阳能行业进行比较案例研究,解决了这一差距。基于半结构化访谈、实地观察和政策分析,研究结果揭示了大型企业(LEs)和中小企业(SMEs)的数字化发展轨迹存在差异。低成本企业受益于先进的能力、强有力的政策支持和组织准备,从而形成采用的良性循环。相比之下,中小企业面临着一个自我强化的社会技术陷阱,高成本、有限的技能和不平等的政策机会造成了相互关联的障碍。该研究将这些发现理论化为可检验的命题,并得出结论:如果没有差异化的政策工具和有针对性的能力建设,广泛的数字化政策可能会无意中扩大现有的数字鸿沟。研究结果对发展中经济体和转型经济体的能源治理中不均衡的信息化提供了细致入微的、基于机制的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Smart energy strategies for dynamic EV charging and renewable integration in distribution systems: A multi-objective optimization framework 基于多目标优化框架的电动汽车动态充电与可再生能源集成的智能能源策略
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102051
T. Yuvaraj , R. Krishnamoorthy , S. Arun , Mohit Bajaj , Vojtech Blazek , Lukas Prokop
The accelerating penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping modern distribution networks by introducing substantial, time-varying charging demand and new operational uncertainties. At the same time, Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) capable EVs offer unprecedented flexibility to support grid stability when coordinated effectively. However, utilities still face major challenges in jointly managing large-scale EV charging, intermittent renewable generation, and feeder-level operational constraints. To address these gaps, this study develops an integrated scheduling framework that simultaneously optimizes solar PV, wind-based renewable distributed generators (RDGs), and V2G-enabled EV charging stations within the IEEE 85-bus radial distribution system. A user-priority-based charging strategy is formulated to accommodate diverse mobility behaviors, including stochastic arrival/departure patterns, state-of-charge variability, and urgency-based service requirements. A multi-objective optimization model is constructed to minimize charging costs, peak demand, charging duration, active power losses, and voltage deviations, while maximizing net grid-trading revenue over a 24-h horizon. The problem is solved using the Cheetah Optimization Algorithm (COA) and benchmarked against Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Honey Badger Optimization Algorithm (HPOA), and the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). System uncertainties are rigorously examined through sensitivity tests, Monte Carlo–based error-band analysis, and stability assessments. The coordinated EV–RDG framework yields substantial technical and economic improvements: a peak load reduction of nearly 50 %, voltage deviation reduction exceeding 25 %, active power loss reduction of 20–30 %, and a total operational cost reduction of above 40 % compared to the uncoordinated baseline. COA demonstrates rapid and stable convergence, delivering consistently high-quality solutions across scenarios. Overall, the findings highlight the value of priority-aware EV integration and advanced optimization in developing scalable, cost-effective, and renewable-supportive charging infrastructures for future smart distribution networks.
电动汽车(ev)的加速渗透正在通过引入大量时变充电需求和新的运营不确定性来重塑现代配电网络。与此同时,具备车辆到电网(V2G)功能的电动汽车提供了前所未有的灵活性,可以在有效协调的情况下支持电网的稳定性。然而,公用事业公司在联合管理大规模电动汽车充电、间歇性可再生能源发电和馈线级运营限制方面仍面临重大挑战。为了解决这些差距,本研究开发了一个集成的调度框架,该框架同时优化了IEEE 85总线径向配电系统中的太阳能光伏发电、基于风能的可再生分布式发电机(rdg)和支持v2g的电动汽车充电站。制定了基于用户优先级的收费策略,以适应不同的移动行为,包括随机到达/离开模式、充电状态可变性和基于紧急的服务需求。构建了一个多目标优化模型,以最小化充电成本、峰值需求、充电持续时间、有功功率损耗和电压偏差,同时最大化24小时内的电网交易净收益。利用猎豹优化算法(Cheetah Optimization Algorithm, COA)和粒子群优化算法(Particle Swarm Optimization, PSO)、蜜獾优化算法(Honey Badger Optimization Algorithm, HPOA)和灰狼优化算法(Grey Wolf Optimizer, GWO)对问题进行了求解。通过灵敏度测试、蒙特卡洛误差带分析和稳定性评估,严格检查了系统的不确定性。协调的EV-RDG框架产生了实质性的技术和经济改进:与不协调的基线相比,峰值负荷降低近50% %,电压偏差降低超过25% %,有功功率损耗降低20-30 %,总运行成本降低40% %以上。COA展示了快速和稳定的融合,跨场景交付一致的高质量解决方案。总体而言,研究结果强调了优先级感知的电动汽车集成和高级优化在为未来的智能配电网络开发可扩展、具有成本效益和可再生支持的充电基础设施方面的价值。
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引用次数: 0
A systematic review on AI-driven computational strategies for sustainable power systems 可持续电力系统人工智能驱动计算策略的系统综述
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102041
Ijaz Ahmed , Muhammad Rehan , Mohammed Alqahtani , Muhammad Khalid
The magnitude and scope of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and information-based computing methods to green and sustainable power generation systems have been significantly expanded to include research, initial development, implementation, and deployment. Over the past five years, this study has investigated various prominent AI modeling and optimization strategies for sustainable power systems. The following methodologies are included: cognitive neural network (NN) approaches, adaptive NNs, recurrent NNs with long-term dependencies, statistical approaches, sequential data processing networks, feature extraction networks, meta-heuristic approaches, evolutionary swarm algorithms, and hybrid optimization methodologies. The current study conducted a trend analysis of AI frameworks, with an emphasis on the performance, flexibility, and efficacy of some of the most frequently employed computational techniques for the development of sustainable power sources. Furthermore, this investigation examined the utilization of novel evaluation criteria, including computational complexity, accuracy, and ROC curve performance, in the context of power generation systems. The findings section is a systematic compilation and categorization of numerous distinct studies that were conducted over the past five years, with a focus on the methodology used and the application area. We have concluded by providing a concise summary of the results and outlining potential future research directions.
人工智能(AI)和基于信息的计算方法在绿色和可持续发电系统中的应用的规模和范围已经大大扩展到包括研究、初始开发、实施和部署。在过去的五年中,本研究调查了可持续电力系统的各种突出的人工智能建模和优化策略。以下方法包括:认知神经网络(NN)方法,自适应神经网络,具有长期依赖关系的循环神经网络,统计方法,顺序数据处理网络,特征提取网络,元启发式方法,进化群算法和混合优化方法。目前的研究对人工智能框架进行了趋势分析,重点是一些最常用的用于可持续能源开发的计算技术的性能、灵活性和有效性。此外,本研究考察了在发电系统背景下使用新的评估标准,包括计算复杂性,准确性和ROC曲线性能。调查结果部分是对过去五年中进行的许多不同研究的系统汇编和分类,重点是所使用的方法和应用领域。最后,我们对研究结果进行了简要总结,并概述了未来的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
Here comes the sun…? A systematic literature review of factors supporting or opposing solar energy initiatives 太阳出来了…?对支持或反对太阳能倡议的因素进行系统的文献综述
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102018
Stefania Benetti , Daniel Delatin Rodrigues , Marco Grasso
The diffusion of solar energy initiatives is shaped by a dynamic interplay of actions supporting and opposing them, influenced by governance structures, socio-economic conditions, environmental concerns, and public perception. This systematic review synthesizes findings from 150 studies published since 2015, identifying twenty key factors that determine the support or opposition to solar energy initiatives. While regulatory frameworks, financial incentives, and community participation by and large enhance support, challenges such as land-use conflicts, economic inequities, and fossil fuel incumbency contribute to opposition. Our review highlights the necessity of integrated policy approaches, participatory governance, and equitable economic models to mitigate opposition and ensure inclusive approaches to solar energy. By providing a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms behind support and opposition, this systematic review informs policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers on strategies to facilitate a sustainable and socially responsible expansion of solar energy.
在治理结构、社会经济条件、环境问题和公众看法的影响下,支持和反对太阳能倡议的行动的动态相互作用决定了太阳能倡议的传播。本系统综述综合了自2015年以来发表的150项研究的结果,确定了决定支持或反对太阳能倡议的20个关键因素。虽然监管框架、财政激励和社区参与在很大程度上增强了支持,但土地使用冲突、经济不平等和化石燃料在位等挑战助长了反对。我们的评估强调了综合政策方法、参与式治理和公平经济模式的必要性,以减轻反对意见并确保太阳能的包容性方法。通过对支持和反对背后的机制进行全面分析,本系统综述为政策制定者、行业利益相关者和研究人员提供了促进可持续和对社会负责的太阳能扩张的策略。
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引用次数: 0
Scenarios for universal electricity access with spatial changes in urbanisation: The case of Kenya 城市化空间变化下的普遍电力接入情景:以肯尼亚为例
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102015
Cynthia Omondi , Francis Njoka , Francesco Tonini , Edo Abraham
Kenya has one of the fastest electrification rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the increase in electrification rates, rural and underserved regions remain a critical challenge requiring a cost-effective strategy that maximises the use of stand-alone and off-grid solutions. This paper uses the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool coupled with a binomial logistic regression model of urbanisation to explore least-cost electrification scenarios for universal access in Kenya. The premise is that as more areas are electrified and the population increases, more regions will likely become urban, leading to changes in their electricity demand. The regression model reveals at least four regions where new urban settlements will likely be concentrated: central Kenya, the coastline, and the border regions to the west and north of Kenya. Electrification scenarios prioritising off-grid ($5.2 billion) and stand-alone solutions ($1.8 billion) significantly reduce the required investment compared to scenarios prioritising grid extension ($8.1 billion). Given the crucial role of stand-alone solutions in minimising costs associated with electricity access, this paper suggests a shift in policy to promote the uptake of stand-alone systems over the previous focus on grid extension and large-scale projects that have dominated Kenya's energy policy landscape.
肯尼亚是撒哈拉以南非洲地区电气化速度最快的国家之一。尽管电气化率有所提高,但农村和服务不足地区仍然是一个严峻的挑战,需要一个具有成本效益的战略,最大限度地利用独立和离网解决方案。本文使用开源空间电气化工具,结合城市化的二项逻辑回归模型,探索肯尼亚普遍接入的最低成本电气化方案。前提是,随着越来越多的地区实现电气化,人口增加,越来越多的地区可能会成为城市,从而导致其电力需求的变化。回归模型显示,至少有四个地区可能会集中出现新的城市定居点:肯尼亚中部、海岸线以及肯尼亚西部和北部的边境地区。与优先考虑电网扩展的方案(81亿美元)相比,优先考虑离网方案(52亿美元)和独立解决方案(18亿美元)的电气化方案显著减少了所需的投资。考虑到独立解决方案在最小化与电力获取相关的成本方面的关键作用,本文建议改变政策,以促进独立系统的采用,而不是以前关注电网扩展和主导肯尼亚能源政策格局的大型项目。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Strategy Reviews
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