Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102011
Haider Mahmood , Muhammad Tanveer , Hussein Mohamad Almurad , Eman Abdel Hameed Hasnin , Amira Houaneb
Financial markets and foreign investments could play an effective role in determining the environment and income of GCC resource-rich economies. Therefore, the effects of Financial Market Development (FMD) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Carbon Intensity (CI) from oil, gas, gas flaring, and cement sectors are tested in the GCC region by employing the Spatial Durbin Model for the period 1980–2022. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is corroborated in the models of CI from the cement, gas, and gas flaring sectors. FMD raises CI from gas, gas flaring, and cement emissions in local and neighboring economies and the whole GCC region. However, FMD reduces CI from the oil emissions in the indirect and total effects. Moreover, FDI reduces CI from the cement sector in local economies and also reduces CI from the cement, oil, and gas sectors in neighboring economies and the whole GCC region. Urbanization increases CI from gas, gas flaring, and cement emissions in local and neighboring economies and the whole GCC region. The study suggests promoting FDI for sustainable growth and reducing the flow of financial resources to the energy and cement sectors. Moreover, urbanization should be controlled to reduce its environmental effects.
{"title":"The impact of financial market development and foreign direct investment on carbon intensity from oil, gas, gas flaring, and cement emissions in GCC Countries: A spatial analysis","authors":"Haider Mahmood , Muhammad Tanveer , Hussein Mohamad Almurad , Eman Abdel Hameed Hasnin , Amira Houaneb","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Financial markets and foreign investments could play an effective role in determining the environment and income of GCC resource-rich economies. Therefore, the effects of Financial Market Development (FMD) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Carbon Intensity (CI) from oil, gas, gas flaring, and cement sectors are tested in the GCC region by employing the Spatial Durbin Model for the period 1980–2022. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is corroborated in the models of CI from the cement, gas, and gas flaring sectors. FMD raises CI from gas, gas flaring, and cement emissions in local and neighboring economies and the whole GCC region. However, FMD reduces CI from the oil emissions in the indirect and total effects. Moreover, FDI reduces CI from the cement sector in local economies and also reduces CI from the cement, oil, and gas sectors in neighboring economies and the whole GCC region. Urbanization increases CI from gas, gas flaring, and cement emissions in local and neighboring economies and the whole GCC region. The study suggests promoting FDI for sustainable growth and reducing the flow of financial resources to the energy and cement sectors. Moreover, urbanization should be controlled to reduce its environmental effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102011"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146034695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102022
Luis Enrique García-Pérez , Francisco Venegas-Martínez , Ricardo Jacob Mendoza-Rivera
Mexico liberalized natural gas prices in 2017 by establishing the National Wholesale Natural Gas Price Index (IPGN). This institutional change created observable conditions where prices could deviate from efficiency. We classified these deviations into three regimes: stability, overestimation and underestimation. To do this, we use a multinomial decision tree with monthly data from 2000 to 2025. The main findings are: First, time validation achieves an accuracy of 73.40 %. In this case, Henry Hub futures prices explain 73.7 % of the regime variance, confirming that price formation in Mexico responds primarily to North American market expectations, rather than domestic fundamentals. Second, markets operate in stability 41 % of the time, being correctly identified in 82.75 % of cases, while overestimation and underestimation represent temporary deviations driven by expectations, rather than a chronic dysfunction. In terms of energy policy, a drop in Henry Hub futures below −6.3 % could trigger regime transitions, thus warranting increased monitoring. The proposal provides high accuracy in identifying stability allows regulators to distinguish crises requiring intervention from normal volatility, thereby avoiding disproportionate policy reactions. Finally, it is worth noting that the interpretability of the decision tree provides essential monitoring thresholds for infrastructure investors that commit resources over the long term (up to ten years).
{"title":"Estimation of the price of natural gas in Mexico using a decision tree model","authors":"Luis Enrique García-Pérez , Francisco Venegas-Martínez , Ricardo Jacob Mendoza-Rivera","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mexico liberalized natural gas prices in 2017 by establishing the National Wholesale Natural Gas Price Index (IPGN). This institutional change created observable conditions where prices could deviate from efficiency. We classified these deviations into three regimes: stability, overestimation and underestimation. To do this, we use a multinomial decision tree with monthly data from 2000 to 2025. The main findings are: First, time validation achieves an accuracy of 73.40 %. In this case, Henry Hub futures prices explain 73.7 % of the regime variance, confirming that price formation in Mexico responds primarily to North American market expectations, rather than domestic fundamentals. Second, markets operate in stability 41 % of the time, being correctly identified in 82.75 % of cases, while overestimation and underestimation represent temporary deviations driven by expectations, rather than a chronic dysfunction. In terms of energy policy, a drop in Henry Hub futures below −6.3 % could trigger regime transitions, thus warranting increased monitoring. The proposal provides high accuracy in identifying stability allows regulators to distinguish crises requiring intervention from normal volatility, thereby avoiding disproportionate policy reactions. Finally, it is worth noting that the interpretability of the decision tree provides essential monitoring thresholds for infrastructure investors that commit resources over the long term (up to ten years).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102022"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102036
Anas Abuzayed , Michael G. Pollitt , Mario Liebensteiner , Simone Hochgreb
Retrofitting gas-fired power plants to accommodate low-carbon fuel blends offers a promising pathway to achieving deep decarbonization while leveraging the existing infrastructure and maintaining electricity supply reliability. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of low-carbon fuel options for decarbonizing combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), evaluating both fuel switching and blending strategies using green hydrogen, green ammonia, and biomethane. Based on official reported values, we estimate capital investment requirements for retrofitting existing fleets and building new CCGT capacity in Germany and the UK, featuring a case study of retrofitting a relatively new CCGT power plant (Keadby2 in the UK). Our findings reveal that retrofitting increases the levelized cost of electricity by about 6–13 €/MWh, with storage infrastructure representing a key cost driver. Fuel blending enhances operational flexibility but raises retrofitting costs. Biomethane emerges as the most cost-effective option due to its compatibility with existing infrastructure and negligible retrofitting needs, potentially cutting capital investments by up to €16.5 and €12 billion in Germany and the UK, respectively. However, even under the most favorable conditions, the marginal cost of electricity using low-carbon fuels exceeds 120 €/MWh, leaving natural gas more competitive at current market conditions. Strategic retrofitting decisions must be pursued selectively, considering plant age, proximity to fuel supply, and storage infrastructure. Policy frameworks ensuring simultaneous supply and infrastructure development are critical to realizing the potential of fuel blending and retrofitting strategies.
{"title":"Exploring the feasibility of low-carbon fuel blends in CCGTs for deep decarbonization of power systems","authors":"Anas Abuzayed , Michael G. Pollitt , Mario Liebensteiner , Simone Hochgreb","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Retrofitting gas-fired power plants to accommodate low-carbon fuel blends offers a promising pathway to achieving deep decarbonization while leveraging the existing infrastructure and maintaining electricity supply reliability. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of low-carbon fuel options for decarbonizing combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), evaluating both fuel switching and blending strategies using green hydrogen, green ammonia, and biomethane. Based on official reported values, we estimate capital investment requirements for retrofitting existing fleets and building new CCGT capacity in Germany and the UK, featuring a case study of retrofitting a relatively new CCGT power plant (Keadby2 in the UK). Our findings reveal that retrofitting increases the levelized cost of electricity by about 6–13 €/MWh, with storage infrastructure representing a key cost driver. Fuel blending enhances operational flexibility but raises retrofitting costs. Biomethane emerges as the most cost-effective option due to its compatibility with existing infrastructure and negligible retrofitting needs, potentially cutting capital investments by up to €16.5 and €12 billion in Germany and the UK, respectively. However, even under the most favorable conditions, the marginal cost of electricity using low-carbon fuels exceeds 120 €/MWh, leaving natural gas more competitive at current market conditions. Strategic retrofitting decisions must be pursued selectively, considering plant age, proximity to fuel supply, and storage infrastructure. Policy frameworks ensuring simultaneous supply and infrastructure development are critical to realizing the potential of fuel blending and retrofitting strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102036"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102012
Su Xiong , Razaz Waheeb Attar , Sana Ullah
Energy security risks and private sector development are inherently intertwined and serve as pivotal determinants in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of the renewable energy (RE) industry, especially in emerging economies, where the transition to sustainable energy constitutes a critical strategic imperative amid global climate change mitigation efforts. Against the backdrop of shifting global energy dynamics and escalating demands for low-carbon development, renewable energy investment (REI) has emerged as a cornerstone of sustainable growth; however, the dynamic mechanisms underlying its determinants in emerging economies remain inadequately explored via rigorous econometric frameworks. This study aims to empirically examine the heterogeneous impacts of energy security risks and private sector development on REI in BRICS nations, emblematic of major emerging economies, by adopting the state-of-the-art generalized method of moments (GMM) panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, complemented by the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) for robustness validation. The empirical findings corroborate that both energy security risks and private sector development exert a statistically significant positive impetus on REI in these economies. The impulse response functions (IRFs) demonstrate that REI exhibits a positive response to exogenous shocks in energy security risks, attaining a peak around the 3rd period before exhibiting a gradual attenuation over the subsequent horizon until the 10th period. Conversely, the IRFs pertaining to the nexus between private sector development and REI reveal a persistently positive and incrementally strengthening trajectory across the 10-period time frame, indicating that sustained advancements in private sector development foster a progressive augmentation of REI. Furthermore, the Granger causality test results validate that energy security risks and private sector development constitute significant causal antecedents of REI, underscoring their predictive power in shaping investment dynamics. Robustness checks via MMQR confirm these findings, revealing that energy security risks drive REI primarily at lower to medium quantiles, while private sector development exerts a consistent positive effect across most quantiles. These findings shed novel light on the critical role of mitigating energy security vulnerabilities and nurturing private sector dynamism as viable pathways to catalyze REI in emerging economies, thereby furnishing evidence-based policy implications for policymakers and strategic insights for investors striving to expedite the global green energy transition.
{"title":"Energy security risk and private sector development: A pathway to renewable energy investment in emerging economies","authors":"Su Xiong , Razaz Waheeb Attar , Sana Ullah","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy security risks and private sector development are inherently intertwined and serve as pivotal determinants in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of the renewable energy (RE) industry, especially in emerging economies, where the transition to sustainable energy constitutes a critical strategic imperative amid global climate change mitigation efforts. Against the backdrop of shifting global energy dynamics and escalating demands for low-carbon development, renewable energy investment (REI) has emerged as a cornerstone of sustainable growth; however, the dynamic mechanisms underlying its determinants in emerging economies remain inadequately explored via rigorous econometric frameworks. This study aims to empirically examine the heterogeneous impacts of energy security risks and private sector development on REI in BRICS nations, emblematic of major emerging economies, by adopting the state-of-the-art generalized method of moments (GMM) panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, complemented by the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) for robustness validation. The empirical findings corroborate that both energy security risks and private sector development exert a statistically significant positive impetus on REI in these economies. The impulse response functions (IRFs) demonstrate that REI exhibits a positive response to exogenous shocks in energy security risks, attaining a peak around the 3rd period before exhibiting a gradual attenuation over the subsequent horizon until the 10th period. Conversely, the IRFs pertaining to the nexus between private sector development and REI reveal a persistently positive and incrementally strengthening trajectory across the 10-period time frame, indicating that sustained advancements in private sector development foster a progressive augmentation of REI. Furthermore, the Granger causality test results validate that energy security risks and private sector development constitute significant causal antecedents of REI, underscoring their predictive power in shaping investment dynamics. Robustness checks via MMQR confirm these findings, revealing that energy security risks drive REI primarily at lower to medium quantiles, while private sector development exerts a consistent positive effect across most quantiles. These findings shed novel light on the critical role of mitigating energy security vulnerabilities and nurturing private sector dynamism as viable pathways to catalyze REI in emerging economies, thereby furnishing evidence-based policy implications for policymakers and strategic insights for investors striving to expedite the global green energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102012"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102010
Shuiting Ding , Xinran Luo , Chenyu Gan , Tian Qiu , Qinglin Ma , Xinming Wang , Shiyang Zhao , Shengyu Bao , Guixian Qu , Yan Shi
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are promising solutions for reducing carbon emissions in the aviation industry and achieving the 2050 net-zero target. Despite their environmental benefits, the adoption and deployment of SAFs remain significantly below expectations. This paper systematically analyzes the key constraints hindering deployment of SAFs, focusing on feedstock availability, technology pathway, safety certification, and sustainability standards. On the production side, the unstable supply of suitable feedstocks, and the lack of mature refining infrastructure result in high production costs. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of various technology pathways for SAFs. Each pathway demonstrates unique advantages and limitations in terms of yield, feedstock adaptability, environmental impact, and cost-effectiveness. While Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) is the most mature, its scalability is hindered by feedstock constraints. Fischer–Tropsch (FT) and lignocellulosic-based pathways offer better long-term potential, especially in developing countries. From a certification standpoint, the safety certification process, primarily governed by ASTM D4054, is lengthy, costly, and sample-intensive, thereby raising the entry barrier for new SAF technologies. Additionally, the global sustainability certification standards lack uniformity, and differences among standards such as CORSIA, ISCC, and RSB make market access and recognition more complex. To overcome these barriers, the paper proposes a synergistic strategy that includes localized feedstock development (e.g., cultivation of Arundo donax on marginal land), technological optimization of SAF production pathways, adoption of modelling and simulation for safety certification, and establishment of a globally recognized and equitable sustainability certification system under ICAO’s leadership. These coordinated efforts are essential to accelerate SAF adoption, ensure global participation, and enable the transition of the aviation industry towards a low-carbon future.
{"title":"Production and certification constraints to sustainable aviation fuel adoption: Analysis and synergistic solutions","authors":"Shuiting Ding , Xinran Luo , Chenyu Gan , Tian Qiu , Qinglin Ma , Xinming Wang , Shiyang Zhao , Shengyu Bao , Guixian Qu , Yan Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are promising solutions for reducing carbon emissions in the aviation industry and achieving the 2050 net-zero target. Despite their environmental benefits, the adoption and deployment of SAFs remain significantly below expectations. This paper systematically analyzes the key constraints hindering deployment of SAFs, focusing on feedstock availability, technology pathway, safety certification, and sustainability standards. On the production side, the unstable supply of suitable feedstocks, and the lack of mature refining infrastructure result in high production costs. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of various technology pathways for SAFs. Each pathway demonstrates unique advantages and limitations in terms of yield, feedstock adaptability, environmental impact, and cost-effectiveness. While Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) is the most mature, its scalability is hindered by feedstock constraints. Fischer–Tropsch (FT) and lignocellulosic-based pathways offer better long-term potential, especially in developing countries. From a certification standpoint, the safety certification process, primarily governed by ASTM D4054, is lengthy, costly, and sample-intensive, thereby raising the entry barrier for new SAF technologies. Additionally, the global sustainability certification standards lack uniformity, and differences among standards such as CORSIA, ISCC, and RSB make market access and recognition more complex. To overcome these barriers, the paper proposes a synergistic strategy that includes localized feedstock development (e.g., cultivation of Arundo donax on marginal land), technological optimization of SAF production pathways, adoption of modelling and simulation for safety certification, and establishment of a globally recognized and equitable sustainability certification system under ICAO’s leadership. These coordinated efforts are essential to accelerate SAF adoption, ensure global participation, and enable the transition of the aviation industry towards a low-carbon future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102010"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Building energy performance during the operational phase is influenced by interconnected factors, including structural characteristics, occupant activity, and systems integration. Current measurement methods often inadequately address the complex synergy between (i) envelope, (ii) indoor conditions, (iii) energy usage and on-site production, and (iv) occupant behaviors. This issue is increasingly critical as building operations account for a significant share of global energy demand and emissions, especially under emerging performance-based regulatory frameworks. This review analyzes over 160 papers retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection database using a structured bibliometric and thematic analysis. It critically examines the most commonly used in-situ diagnostics and occupant data-driven techniques, discussing each method's strengths, limitations, and operational contexts. Therefore, it provides a step-by-step guideline to comprehensively evaluate buildings' energy performance elements and helps in selecting the suitable diagnostic methods. The review underscores the need for an integrative assessment framework and the underrepresentation of behavioral data in diagnostics. It proposes a hybrid multi-criteria evaluation model that combines quantitative and qualitative indicators.
建筑在运行阶段的能源性能受到相互关联的因素的影响，包括结构特征、居住者活动和系统集成。目前的测量方法往往不能充分解决(i)围护结构，（ii）室内条件，（iii）能源使用和现场生产，以及（iv）居住者行为之间的复杂协同作用。随着建筑业务在全球能源需求和排放中占很大份额，特别是在新兴的基于绩效的监管框架下，这一问题变得越来越重要。本文采用结构化的文献计量学和主题分析方法，分析了从Web of Science Core Collection数据库中检索到的160多篇论文。本文分析了最常用的原位诊断技术和作业人员数据驱动技术，讨论了每种方法的优点、局限性和操作环境。因此，它提供了一个循序渐进的指导，以全面评估建筑的能源性能要素，并有助于选择合适的诊断方法。该综述强调了建立综合评估框架的必要性以及诊断中行为数据代表性不足的问题。提出了一种定量指标与定性指标相结合的混合多准则评价模型。
{"title":"In-situ and data-driven methods for evaluating building energy performance in the operational phase: A critical review","authors":"Houda Er-Retby , Mouatassim Charai , Mohamed Oualid Mghazli , Mohamed El Mankibi , Mostafa Benzaazoua","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building energy performance during the operational phase is influenced by interconnected factors, including structural characteristics, occupant activity, and systems integration. Current measurement methods often inadequately address the complex synergy between (i) envelope, (ii) indoor conditions, (iii) energy usage and on-site production, and (iv) occupant behaviors. This issue is increasingly critical as building operations account for a significant share of global energy demand and emissions, especially under emerging performance-based regulatory frameworks. This review analyzes over 160 papers retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection database using a structured bibliometric and thematic analysis. It critically examines the most commonly used in-situ diagnostics and occupant data-driven techniques, discussing each method's strengths, limitations, and operational contexts. Therefore, it provides a step-by-step guideline to comprehensively evaluate buildings' energy performance elements and helps in selecting the suitable diagnostic methods. The review underscores the need for an integrative assessment framework and the underrepresentation of behavioral data in diagnostics. It proposes a hybrid multi-criteria evaluation model that combines quantitative and qualitative indicators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102038"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102014
Lekhnath Ghimire , Charisse Vitto , Tanushree Das , Edward Waller , Nicholas Priest , Margot Hurlbert
This study examines public perceptions of low-dose radiation (LDR) and small modular reactors (SMRs) to inform strategies for improving nuclear literacy and acceptance. Survey results revealed that, despite high levels of formal education, knowledge of radiation was limited. Most participants relied on media rather than scientific sources. Expert-led presentations noticeably increased perceptions of LDR safety. Opinions on SMRs were divided, with notable concerns about proximity to residential areas. Emotional responses to SMRs were largely neutral, with signs of cautious optimism. The findings underscore the need for accessible, evidence-based communication and public engagement to foster informed support for nuclear technologies in achieving climate goals.
{"title":"Public perceptions of low-dose radiation and small modular reactors: A survey-based social science analysis","authors":"Lekhnath Ghimire , Charisse Vitto , Tanushree Das , Edward Waller , Nicholas Priest , Margot Hurlbert","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines public perceptions of low-dose radiation (LDR) and small modular reactors (SMRs) to inform strategies for improving nuclear literacy and acceptance. Survey results revealed that, despite high levels of formal education, knowledge of radiation was limited. Most participants relied on media rather than scientific sources. Expert-led presentations noticeably increased perceptions of LDR safety. Opinions on SMRs were divided, with notable concerns about proximity to residential areas. Emotional responses to SMRs were largely neutral, with signs of cautious optimism. The findings underscore the need for accessible, evidence-based communication and public engagement to foster informed support for nuclear technologies in achieving climate goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102014"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102009
Souhir Amri Amamou , Saoussen Aguir Bargaoui , Adel Ifa
This paper aims to investigate the sensitivity of the gas market: Russian Natural Gas and Liquefied Gas, to other commodity categories. It sheds light on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model on daily prices of Russian Natural Gas, Liquefied Natural Gas, WTI, Brent, Gold, Silver, Corn, and Coffee over the period January 1, 2020, to May 30, 2023. Results suggest that the LNG market displays greater sensitivity to other commodity markets. They highlight that the agricultural market is the main driver of the natural gas market's evolution, both in the short and long term. Shifting the focus in the metals market allows us to detect a significant relationship between Natural Gas and gold prices only for the long term with RNG, and LNG in both the short and long term. On the other hand, this research paper argues that the WTI market led the gas market. The overall findings claim that even if LNG has found success in recent years, due to its ecological advantages or its potential substitution power of Russian gas, market participants must invest in it while taking into consideration its strong connectivity to other different commodity markets to avoid sudden and potential excessive response by excess-correlation to impulses from these markets.
{"title":"The dynamic relationship between natural gas and commodity prices through the Russian-Ukrainian crisis framework","authors":"Souhir Amri Amamou , Saoussen Aguir Bargaoui , Adel Ifa","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2025.102009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to investigate the sensitivity of the gas market: Russian Natural Gas and Liquefied Gas, to other commodity categories. It sheds light on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis by u<strong>sing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model on daily prices of</strong> Russian Natural Gas, Liquefied Natural Gas, WTI, Brent, Gold, Silver, Corn, and Coffee over the period January 1, 2020, to May 30, 2023. Results suggest that the LNG market displays greater sensitivity to other commodity markets. They highlight that the agricultural market is the main driver of the natural gas market's evolution, both in the short and long term. Shifting the focus in the metals market allows us to detect a significant relationship between Natural Gas and gold prices only for the long term with RNG, and LNG in both the short and long term. On the other hand, this research paper argues that the WTI market led the gas market. The overall findings claim that even if LNG has found success in recent years, due to its ecological advantages or its potential substitution power of Russian gas, market participants must invest in it while taking into consideration its strong connectivity to other different commodity markets to avoid sudden and potential excessive response by excess-correlation to impulses from these markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102009"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102043
Junhong Liu , Fredrich Kahrl , Liqun Peng , Jiang Lin , Gang He
China's pursuit of carbon neutrality will entail a transformation of its power generation portfolio through extensive investment in renewable energy, underscoring the need for expanding planning and operating reserves to maintain power system reliability. However, efficient reserve management is critical, amid evolving electricity market reforms, to avoiding overcapacity. Here, we quantitatively assess spatiotemporal coordination strategies through regional reserve sharing within China's interconnected power grids. Our results demonstrate that high coordination strategies reduce the planning installed capacity by up to 9.2 % in Southern China grid region in 2035 and lower capital expenditures by 3–4 % (equivalent to USD $243.0–258.4 billion in present value) over a 30-year horizon compared to the low coordinated case. Additionally, sharing operating reserves within the East China grid region reduces reserve capacity procurement by 16 % in 2035 and cuts annual reserve market costs by 5–8 % (about $5.8–8.3 billion) compared to the unshared case. These findings suggest that regional coordination can enhance economic efficiency, representing an under-utilized lever to facilitate power system decarbonization.
{"title":"Toward efficient resource adequacy: The role of shared reserves in China's power grid","authors":"Junhong Liu , Fredrich Kahrl , Liqun Peng , Jiang Lin , Gang He","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's pursuit of carbon neutrality will entail a transformation of its power generation portfolio through extensive investment in renewable energy, underscoring the need for expanding planning and operating reserves to maintain power system reliability. However, efficient reserve management is critical, amid evolving electricity market reforms, to avoiding overcapacity. Here, we quantitatively assess spatiotemporal coordination strategies through regional reserve sharing within China's interconnected power grids. Our results demonstrate that high coordination strategies reduce the planning installed capacity by up to 9.2 % in Southern China grid region in 2035 and lower capital expenditures by 3–4 % (equivalent to USD $243.0–258.4 billion in present value) over a 30-year horizon compared to the low coordinated case. Additionally, sharing operating reserves within the East China grid region reduces reserve capacity procurement by 16 % in 2035 and cuts annual reserve market costs by 5–8 % (about $5.8–8.3 billion) compared to the unshared case. These findings suggest that regional coordination can enhance economic efficiency, representing an under-utilized lever to facilitate power system decarbonization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102043"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146034623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study evaluated how different SSP scenarios affect solar energy potential in Türkiye's GAP region by examining projected changes in surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS), air temperature (Tas), and photovoltaic cell temperature (Tcell), along with their implications for photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) systems. Multiple CMIP6 climate models, including the multi-model ensemble (MME), were used, and bias-adjustment procedures were applied through the Delta Method, Quantile Mapping, and Empirical Quantile Mapping. Correlation and sensitivity analysis were also conducted to better understand the drivers of spatial variability. RSDS projections show pronounced spatial differences. Gaziantep and Kilis consistently exhibit the largest increases, reaching 3.47 % under SSP1-2.6 and 2.62 % under SSP2-4.5. Under SSP5-8.5, RSDS intensifies further, reaching 4.20 % in Kilis by 2100, with Gaziantep and Adıyaman also strongly affected. Tas projections similarly reveal substantial warming, supported by quantitative increases across the region. Under SSP1-2.6, Adıyaman shows the highest early-period warming at 5.17 %, while Diyarbakır exceeds 9 % in later periods. Under SSP5-8.5, Mardin records the strongest early-century warming at 2.57 %, whereas Siirt undergoes the largest mid-future (13.11 %) and late-century (24.69 %) temperature increases. These values confirm that the magnitude and timing of Tas increases vary considerably among provinces. CSP thermal power responds positively to increasing RSDS, with maximum values of 4.49 %, 3.60 %, and 5.95 % across the three scenarios. Tcell rises sharply, 7.91 %, 12.89 %, and 19.23 %, and sensitivity analysis shows that removing wind cooling elevates Tcell by 3.7–5.7 °C, highlighting the importance of wind as a thermal regulator. PV power potential with wind (PVP1) increases moderately, whereas wind-excluded PV potential (PVP2) amplifies thermal stress impacts, reaching up to 19.23 % in Gaziantep. Findings highlight the vulnerability of solar energy systems to climate change, underscoring the need for adaptive cooling strategies to maintain efficiency. This study provides critical insights for future energy planning, emphasizing the importance of climate mitigation policies for the sustainable development of solar energy.
{"title":"Climate change effects on solar energy potential: CMIP6-based projections and policy implications","authors":"Veysi Kartal , Erkan Karakoyun , Fatih Bayrak , Miklas Scholz","doi":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esr.2026.102063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluated how different SSP scenarios affect solar energy potential in Türkiye's GAP region by examining projected changes in surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS), air temperature (Tas), and photovoltaic cell temperature (Tcell), along with their implications for photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) systems. Multiple CMIP6 climate models, including the multi-model ensemble (MME), were used, and bias-adjustment procedures were applied through the Delta Method, Quantile Mapping, and Empirical Quantile Mapping. Correlation and sensitivity analysis were also conducted to better understand the drivers of spatial variability. RSDS projections show pronounced spatial differences. Gaziantep and Kilis consistently exhibit the largest increases, reaching 3.47 % under SSP1-2.6 and 2.62 % under SSP2-4.5. Under SSP5-8.5, RSDS intensifies further, reaching 4.20 % in Kilis by 2100, with Gaziantep and Adıyaman also strongly affected. Tas projections similarly reveal substantial warming, supported by quantitative increases across the region. Under SSP1-2.6, Adıyaman shows the highest early-period warming at 5.17 %, while Diyarbakır exceeds 9 % in later periods. Under SSP5-8.5, Mardin records the strongest early-century warming at 2.57 %, whereas Siirt undergoes the largest mid-future (13.11 %) and late-century (24.69 %) temperature increases. These values confirm that the magnitude and timing of Tas increases vary considerably among provinces. CSP thermal power responds positively to increasing RSDS, with maximum values of 4.49 %, 3.60 %, and 5.95 % across the three scenarios. Tcell rises sharply, 7.91 %, 12.89 %, and 19.23 %, and sensitivity analysis shows that removing wind cooling elevates Tcell by 3.7–5.7 °C, highlighting the importance of wind as a thermal regulator. PV power potential with wind (PVP1) increases moderately, whereas wind-excluded PV potential (PVP2) amplifies thermal stress impacts, reaching up to 19.23 % in Gaziantep. Findings highlight the vulnerability of solar energy systems to climate change, underscoring the need for adaptive cooling strategies to maintain efficiency. This study provides critical insights for future energy planning, emphasizing the importance of climate mitigation policies for the sustainable development of solar energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11546,"journal":{"name":"Energy Strategy Reviews","volume":"63 ","pages":"Article 102063"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146034700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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