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IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
Why current resilience metrics fall short in the energy transition: A system-level review of gaps and needs 为什么目前的弹性指标在能源转型中不足：对差距和需求的系统级审查
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102023
Yael Parag, Malcolm Ainspan, Shiri Zemah Shamir
As electricity systems undergo rapid decentralization and decarbonization, ensuring resilience to increasingly complex and high-impact disruptions has become a strategic imperative. However, current approaches to resilience measurement remain fragmented, inconsistent, and poorly aligned with the evolving structure of power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the main gaps in resilience metrics for decentralized and decarbonized electricity systems. We identify seven interrelated gaps: (1) conceptual overlap with reliability, (2) lack of standardization, (3) inadequate treatment of major events, (4) limited integration of supply chain risks, (5) context-specific and non-scalable indicators, (6) insufficient attention to societal and equity dimensions, and (7) poor adaptation to emerging threats such as cyberattacks and compound climate events. Drawing on academic literature and policy reports from the U.S. and Europe, the paper analyzes methodological challenges and offers pathways for improvement. These include multi-tiered and equity-weighted metrics, performance curves, real options-based valuation, and integration of supply chain indicators. By focusing on what is missing and why, it provides a structured agenda for developing next-generation resilience metrics that are better aligned with the needs of dynamic, decentralized, and low-carbon electricity systems. In doing so, the review moves beyond existing assessments by explicitly synthesizing conceptual, methodological, and equity-related gaps, offering a foundation for more context-sensitive and policy-relevant approaches to resilience measurement.
随着电力系统的快速分散化和脱碳，确保应对日益复杂和高影响的中断已成为一项战略要务。然而，目前的弹性测量方法仍然是碎片化的、不一致的，并且与电力系统不断变化的结构不一致。本文全面回顾了分散和脱碳电力系统在弹性指标方面的主要差距。我们确定了七个相互关联的差距：(1)与可靠性的概念重叠；(2)缺乏标准化；(3)对重大事件的处理不足；(4)供应链风险的整合有限；(5)特定环境和不可扩展的指标；(6)对社会和公平维度的关注不足；(7)对网络攻击和复合气候事件等新兴威胁的适应能力差。本文借鉴了美国和欧洲的学术文献和政策报告，分析了方法上的挑战，并提出了改进的途径。这些指标包括多层和股权加权指标、绩效曲线、基于实物期权的估值以及供应链指标的整合。通过关注缺失的内容及其原因，它为制定下一代弹性指标提供了结构化议程，这些指标更符合动态、分散和低碳电力系统的需求。在此过程中，通过明确地综合概念、方法和公平相关的差距，评估超越了现有的评估，为更具上下文敏感性和与政策相关的弹性测量方法提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Riding out the storm: High-frequency data for enhanced oil market risk forecasting 渡过风暴：高频数据增强石油市场风险预测
IF 7.9 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Energy Strategy Reviews
Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102031
Wei Kuang
The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic planning. This paper introduces and validates an enhanced methodological approach for oil market risk forecasting using high-frequency, minute-by-minute market data. We test this methodology against established models that rely on daily price information to demonstrate its analytical value. The evaluation focuses on forecasting Value at Risk, a critical metric for risk assessment. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) intraday data captures essential market dynamics that daily data overlooks; (2) increased model complexity does not necessarily improve forecasting accuracy; and (3) high-frequency data approach consistently outperform traditional counterparts. These findings have significant implications for energy strategy and policy. By providing more accurate and robust forecasting capabilities, this methodology enables energy corporations, investors, and policymakers to make better-informed decisions regarding capital allocation, hedging strategies, and infrastructure investment, ultimately contributing to enhanced energy market stability and security.
全球能源市场的稳定是有效能源战略的基础，影响着国家政策和企业投资决策。极端波动，例如在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，暴露了传统风险评估工具的局限性，并破坏了战略规划。本文介绍并验证了一种利用高频、分分钟市场数据进行石油市场风险预测的增强方法。我们测试这种方法对建立的模型，依赖于每日价格信息，以证明其分析价值。评估的重点是预测风险值，这是风险评估的一个关键指标。我们的研究结果揭示了三个关键见解：(1)日内数据捕捉了日常数据忽略的基本市场动态；(2)模型复杂性的增加并不一定提高预测精度；(3)高频数据方法始终优于传统方法。这些发现对能源战略和政策具有重要意义。通过提供更准确和强大的预测能力，该方法使能源公司、投资者和政策制定者能够在资本配置、对冲策略和基础设施投资方面做出更明智的决策，最终有助于增强能源市场的稳定性和安全性。
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引用次数: 0
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