Energy Strategy Reviews最新文献_第5页

Why current resilience metrics fall short in the energy transition: A system-level review of gaps and needs 为什么目前的弹性指标在能源转型中不足：对差距和需求的系统级审查

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102023

Yael Parag, Malcolm Ainspan, Shiri Zemah Shamir

As electricity systems undergo rapid decentralization and decarbonization, ensuring resilience to increasingly complex and high-impact disruptions has become a strategic imperative. However, current approaches to resilience measurement remain fragmented, inconsistent, and poorly aligned with the evolving structure of power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the main gaps in resilience metrics for decentralized and decarbonized electricity systems. We identify seven interrelated gaps: (1) conceptual overlap with reliability, (2) lack of standardization, (3) inadequate treatment of major events, (4) limited integration of supply chain risks, (5) context-specific and non-scalable indicators, (6) insufficient attention to societal and equity dimensions, and (7) poor adaptation to emerging threats such as cyberattacks and compound climate events. Drawing on academic literature and policy reports from the U.S. and Europe, the paper analyzes methodological challenges and offers pathways for improvement. These include multi-tiered and equity-weighted metrics, performance curves, real options-based valuation, and integration of supply chain indicators. By focusing on what is missing and why, it provides a structured agenda for developing next-generation resilience metrics that are better aligned with the needs of dynamic, decentralized, and low-carbon electricity systems. In doing so, the review moves beyond existing assessments by explicitly synthesizing conceptual, methodological, and equity-related gaps, offering a foundation for more context-sensitive and policy-relevant approaches to resilience measurement.

随着电力系统的快速分散化和脱碳，确保应对日益复杂和高影响的中断已成为一项战略要务。然而，目前的弹性测量方法仍然是碎片化的、不一致的，并且与电力系统不断变化的结构不一致。本文全面回顾了分散和脱碳电力系统在弹性指标方面的主要差距。我们确定了七个相互关联的差距：(1)与可靠性的概念重叠；(2)缺乏标准化；(3)对重大事件的处理不足；(4)供应链风险的整合有限；(5)特定环境和不可扩展的指标；(6)对社会和公平维度的关注不足；(7)对网络攻击和复合气候事件等新兴威胁的适应能力差。本文借鉴了美国和欧洲的学术文献和政策报告，分析了方法上的挑战，并提出了改进的途径。这些指标包括多层和股权加权指标、绩效曲线、基于实物期权的估值以及供应链指标的整合。通过关注缺失的内容及其原因，它为制定下一代弹性指标提供了结构化议程，这些指标更符合动态、分散和低碳电力系统的需求。在此过程中，通过明确地综合概念、方法和公平相关的差距，评估超越了现有的评估，为更具上下文敏感性和与政策相关的弹性测量方法提供了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Riding out the storm: High-frequency data for enhanced oil market risk forecasting 渡过风暴：高频数据增强石油市场风险预测

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102031

Wei Kuang

The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic planning. This paper introduces and validates an enhanced methodological approach for oil market risk forecasting using high-frequency, minute-by-minute market data. We test this methodology against established models that rely on daily price information to demonstrate its analytical value. The evaluation focuses on forecasting Value at Risk, a critical metric for risk assessment. Our findings reveal three key insights: (1) intraday data captures essential market dynamics that daily data overlooks; (2) increased model complexity does not necessarily improve forecasting accuracy; and (3) high-frequency data approach consistently outperform traditional counterparts. These findings have significant implications for energy strategy and policy. By providing more accurate and robust forecasting capabilities, this methodology enables energy corporations, investors, and policymakers to make better-informed decisions regarding capital allocation, hedging strategies, and infrastructure investment, ultimately contributing to enhanced energy market stability and security.

全球能源市场的稳定是有效能源战略的基础，影响着国家政策和企业投资决策。极端波动，例如在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，暴露了传统风险评估工具的局限性，并破坏了战略规划。本文介绍并验证了一种利用高频、分分钟市场数据进行石油市场风险预测的增强方法。我们测试这种方法对建立的模型，依赖于每日价格信息，以证明其分析价值。评估的重点是预测风险值，这是风险评估的一个关键指标。我们的研究结果揭示了三个关键见解：(1)日内数据捕捉了日常数据忽略的基本市场动态；(2)模型复杂性的增加并不一定提高预测精度；(3)高频数据方法始终优于传统方法。这些发现对能源战略和政策具有重要意义。通过提供更准确和强大的预测能力，该方法使能源公司、投资者和政策制定者能够在资本配置、对冲策略和基础设施投资方面做出更明智的决策，最终有助于增强能源市场的稳定性和安全性。

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引用次数: 0

Building operational energy saving opportunities: A clustering analysis of Ethiopian urban housing 建筑运营节能机会：埃塞俄比亚城市住房的聚类分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102044

Getahun Ayele Tessema , P.S. Chani , E. Rajasekar

The operational phase of a building consumes a significant amount of energy, making energy efficiency a priority for a sustainable built environment. This study examines operational energy-saving opportunities of Ethiopian urban housing through a cluster analysis of 927 sample units in Addis Ababa and Adama City. The results indicate that overall energy consumption is primarily determined by floor area, household income, and occupancy. At the same time, ambient temperature had a negligible impact due to the absence of an air conditioning system in the sample housing units. The analysis also revealed significant energy usage disparities, with Addis Ababa's Cluster 1 demonstrating the highest annual electricity consumption of 5366.73 kWh and an Energy Performance Indicator (EPI) of 117.01 kWh/m²/y. This high demand is attributed to high-income, large-occupancy households and cooking appliances like the electric 'Injera Mitad'. Conversely, Adama's Cluster 1 exhibited the lowest consumption, at 370.99 kWh annually with an EPI of 10.61 kWh/m²/y, from a lower-income, smaller-occupancy household. Hence, these findings highlight specific opportunities for energy efficiency improvements: encouraging the adoption of more efficient cooking appliances for households with high energy consumption and implementing proactive demand management for moderate-to-low consumption households to prevent future demand increases. Finally, this study offers empirical insights into demographically informed energy-saving scenarios for Ethiopian urban housing. It also supports the targeted interventions to advance national energy efficiency programs.

建筑的运行阶段消耗大量的能源，使能源效率成为可持续建筑环境的优先事项。本研究通过对亚的斯亚贝巴和阿达马市927个样本单位的聚类分析，考察了埃塞俄比亚城市住房的运营节能机会。结果表明，总能耗主要由建筑面积、家庭收入和占用率决定。同时，由于样品外壳单元中没有空调系统，环境温度的影响可以忽略不计。分析还揭示了显著的能源使用差异，亚的斯亚贝巴第1集群的年用电量最高，为5366.73 千瓦时，能源绩效指标（EPI）为117.01 千瓦时/平方米/年。这种高需求归因于高收入，大占用家庭和烹饪电器，如“Injera Mitad”。相反，Adama的集群1显示出最低的消耗，每年为370.99 千瓦时，EPI为10.61 千瓦时/平方米/年，来自低收入，较小占用的家庭。因此，这些研究结果强调了提高能效的具体机会：鼓励高能耗家庭采用更高效的烹饪器具，并对中低能耗家庭实施主动需求管理，以防止未来需求增加。最后，本研究为埃塞俄比亚城市住房的人口节能方案提供了实证见解。它还支持有针对性的干预措施，以推进国家能源效率项目。

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引用次数: 0

The effects of the new energy demonstration city policy on regional green technological innovation: Evidence from China 新能源示范城市政策对区域绿色技术创新的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102025

Tianle Yang , Liuhui Luo

Based on panel data from 276 Chinese cities between 2004 and 2021 and applying a difference-in-differences approach, this study explores the relationship between the New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) policy and local green technological innovation (GTI) capabilities, along with its mechanisms and boundary conditions. The analysis suggests that the NEDC policy is associated with an increase in GTI. This relationship is primarily influenced by higher human capital attraction and the increased stringency of environmental regulations. The policy appears to have a more pronounced effect in cities with more developed financial systems and greater digital inclusive finance. It also seems to be more effective in coastal cities, cities with higher administrative rankings, and those not heavily reliant on natural resources. Spatial analysis indicates that neighboring cities experience spillover effects, driven by technology diffusion and knowledge sharing. These results support the idea that energy governance policies can foster green innovation, highlighting the role of institutional design, talent strategy, and financial infrastructure as key drivers of sustainable urban transitions.

本文基于2004 - 2021年276个中国城市的面板数据，运用差异中的差异方法，探讨了新能源示范城市政策与地方绿色技术创新（GTI）能力的关系，以及其机制和边界条件。分析表明，NEDC政策与GTI的增加有关。这种关系主要受到人力资本吸引力提高和环境法规日益严格的影响。在金融体系更发达、数字普惠金融更发达的城市，该政策的效果似乎更为明显。它似乎在沿海城市、行政级别较高的城市以及不严重依赖自然资源的城市更为有效。空间分析表明，在技术扩散和知识共享的驱动下，相邻城市存在溢出效应。这些结果支持了能源治理政策可以促进绿色创新的观点，强调了制度设计、人才战略和金融基础设施作为可持续城市转型的关键驱动因素的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Carbon trading strategies for thermal power enterprises to cope with carbon market illiquidity: Independent pricing vs joint pricing 火电企业应对碳市场流动性不足的碳交易策略：自主定价vs联合定价

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102065

Xu Lian , Xuewen Liu , Tongxin Pei , Wensheng Wang

To address climate change and fulfill its international commitments to reducing carbon emissions, China has accelerated the low-carbon transformation of the thermal power sector through a carbon trading mechanism. However, as the “30·60″ dual-carbon target approaches, the carbon market still faces limited liquidity. This study develops a two-tier Stackelberg decision model that distinguishes advanced from traditional thermal power enterprises and compares optimal strategies, carbon prices, and trading volumes under independent pricing and joint pricing. It further examines how enterprises determine optimal strategies under the principles of self-interest and mutual benefit. The results show that: (1) When market volatility is high, joint decision-making enhances trading volume and market efficiency; when volatility is low, firms act independently and changes in volume mainly reflect risk diversification. (2) A higher carbon price floor stabilizes both prices and incentives, supporting joint pricing, whereas a lower floor weakens price protection, increases volatility, and encourages independent pricing. (3) Traditional enterprises prefer independent pricing to ensure compliance at low prices but adopt joint pricing when cooperative arrangements yield mutual benefits at higher prices. (4) For advanced enterprises, under the self-interest principle, independent pricing prevails when cooperation returns are low, while joint pricing becomes optimal when returns are high. Under the win–win principle, firms adopt independent pricing when cooperative benefits cannot offset concessions, but choose joint pricing when such cooperation ensures mutual gains.

为应对气候变化，履行减少碳排放的国际承诺，中国通过碳交易机制加快火电行业低碳转型。然而，随着“30·60″”双碳目标的临近，碳市场的流动性仍然有限。本文建立了先进火电企业与传统火电企业的双层Stackelberg决策模型，并对独立定价和联合定价下的最优策略、碳价和交易量进行了比较。进一步研究了企业如何在自利和互利原则下确定最优战略。结果表明：(1)当市场波动较大时，联合决策提高了交易量和市场效率；当波动率较低时，企业独立行动，成交量变化主要反映风险分散。(2)较高的碳价格下限稳定了价格和激励，支持联合定价；较低的碳价格下限削弱了价格保护，增加了波动性，鼓励了自主定价。(3)传统企业在价格较低时为保证合规性更倾向于自主定价，而在价格较高时合作安排互利时则倾向于联合定价。(4)对于先进企业，在自利原则下，当合作收益较低时，自主定价占优势，当合作收益较高时，联合定价最优。在双赢原则下，当合作利益不能抵消让步时，企业选择自主定价；当合作利益保证双方利益时，企业选择共同定价。

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引用次数: 0

Site selection for onshore wind energy in Iceland using GIS-based mapping 基于gis的冰岛陆上风能选址

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102058

David Cook , Jón Geir Pétursson , Michaela Hrabalíková

Iceland's significant onshore wind energy potential remains untapped, with no operational wind farms despite recognized opportunities for over a decade. Two wind energy projects, approved under Iceland's Master Plan for Nature Protection and Energy Utilization – a legally enshrined Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool – are poised to initiate this transition, supporting the nation's goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. Originally designed for geothermal and hydropower projects, the Master Plan's methodology is now adapting to evaluate onshore wind energy projects, amid growing global use of Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping to optimise site selection. This study's review examines the novel application of advanced GIS-based MCDA, including 3D visualisations and high-resolution data, to enhance Iceland's Master Plan for strategically identifying low-impact onshore wind energy sites while balancing environmental, social, and infrastructural factors. These include visual impacts, bird habitats, noise, shadow flicker, and proximity to protected areas and population centres. By integrating advanced GIS tools such as viewshed analysis and 3D visualizations, the study highlights how these methods can potentially mitigate adverse effects and improve social acceptance. The paper considers the potential for further integration of GIS-based analysis into Iceland's emerging wind energy regulatory framework, which could help to provide insights to national decision-makers who are seeking to balance appropriate renewable energy development with environmental and societal priorities.

冰岛巨大的陆上风能潜力仍未得到开发，尽管十多年来一直有公认的机会，但仍没有风电场投入运营。根据冰岛自然保护和能源利用总体规划（一种法律规定的多标准决策分析（MCDA）工具）批准的两个风能项目准备启动这一转型，支持该国到2040年实现温室气体净零排放的目标。总体规划的方法最初是为地热和水电项目设计的，现在正在适应评估陆上风能项目，全球越来越多地使用地理信息系统（GIS）绘图来优化选址。本研究回顾了先进的基于gis的MCDA的新应用，包括3D可视化和高分辨率数据，以增强冰岛的总体规划，在平衡环境、社会和基础设施因素的同时，战略性地确定低影响的陆上风能站点。这些因素包括视觉影响、鸟类栖息地、噪音、阴影闪烁以及靠近保护区和人口中心。通过集成先进的GIS工具，如视场分析和3D可视化，该研究强调了这些方法如何潜在地减轻不利影响并提高社会接受度。本文考虑了将基于gis的分析进一步整合到冰岛新兴的风能监管框架中的潜力，这可能有助于为寻求平衡适当的可再生能源发展与环境和社会优先事项的国家决策者提供见解。

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引用次数: 0

Global Licensing and Regulation Framework to accelerate the development and deployment of fusion energy 全球许可和监管框架，以加速核聚变能源的开发和部署

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102020

Ralf B. Kaiser , H.-Holger Rogner , Adnan Shihab-Eldin , Sehila M. Gonzalez de Vicente

Fusion energy, the energy that powers the stars, is now almost within our grasp. Most recent timelines agree on the second half of the 2030s for the realisation of a Fusion Energy pilot plant. For this clean, virtually carbon-neutral energy source to contribute to the mitigation of the climate crisis and contribute to meeting the growing energy demand, fusion energy will have to be deployed quickly – more quickly than was the case for solar and wind power. There are numerous factors that have to be considered, but licensing and regulation is a key factor. This paper introduces the basic facts on fusion energy, makes the case for an International Licensing and Regulation Framework for Fusion Energy, shows examples from other fields that demonstrate that this is feasible and develops a 7-point plan for such a framework. In technical aspects the paper focuses on magnetic confinement fusion, but the general aspects and the 7-point plan apply to fusion energy in general.

核聚变能，即为恒星提供动力的能量，现在几乎唾手可得。最近的时间表一致同意在本世纪30年代后半期实现一个聚变能源试点工厂。为了使这种清洁、几乎碳中和的能源有助于缓解气候危机并有助于满足日益增长的能源需求，必须迅速部署核聚变能源——比太阳能和风能的部署速度更快。有许多因素需要考虑，但许可和监管是一个关键因素。本文介绍了核聚变能源的基本事实，提出了核聚变能源国际许可和监管框架的案例，展示了其他领域的例子，证明这是可行的，并为这样一个框架制定了7点计划。在技术方面，本文侧重于磁约束聚变，但一般方面和7点计划适用于一般的聚变能。

引用次数: 0

Rethinking value of lost load in high-reliability electricity systems: methodological challenges and policy implications 重新思考高可靠性电力系统中损失负荷的价值：方法上的挑战和政策意义

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102061

Yunji Her , Taeyoung Jin

The Value of Lost Load (VoLL) is a key metric in electricity system planning and market design, informing reliability assessments, scarcity pricing, and capacity remuneration mechanisms. This study conducts a comprehensive review of VoLL estimation methods and identifies the most appropriate approaches for each sector based on theory and empirical precedents. Specifically, the stated-preference and production-side methods are applied to industrial and commercial sectors, while the leisure cost approach is used for the residential sector, with South Korea as a case study. The estimated VoLL values range from approximately 0.3 USD/kWh in the manufacturing sector to 5.7 USD/kWh in the residential sector, depending on the methodology employed. Despite South Korea's exceptionally high electricity reliability, these sectoral VoLL estimates are substantially lower than the system-wide VoLL implied by existing reliability standards (approximately 3.3 USD/kWh). This discrepancy highlights methodological and policy challenges in applying VoLL within highly reliable systems, where empirically estimated values may underestimate the social cost of outages. Rather than advocating a single estimation technique, this study contributes by applying multiple sector-specific methods in an empirically grounded manner, offering policy-relevant insights for electricity market design and reliability planning in decarbonizing power systems.

失载价值（VoLL）是电力系统规划和市场设计的关键指标，为可靠性评估、稀缺性定价和容量报酬机制提供信息。本研究对VoLL估计方法进行了全面的回顾，并根据理论和经验先例确定了每个部门最合适的方法。具体而言，国家偏好和生产方面的方法适用于工业和商业部门，而休闲成本方法则用于住宅部门，并以韩国为例进行了研究。根据所采用的方法，估计的VoLL值从制造业的约0.3美元/千瓦时到住宅部门的5.7美元/千瓦时不等。尽管韩国的电力可靠性非常高，但这些部门的VoLL估计大大低于现有可靠性标准所隐含的系统范围的VoLL（约3.3美元/千瓦时）。这种差异突出了在高度可靠的系统中应用VoLL的方法和政策挑战，在这些系统中，经验估计的值可能低估了中断的社会成本。本研究并没有提倡单一的估算技术，而是以基于经验的方式应用了多种针对特定行业的方法，为脱碳电力系统的电力市场设计和可靠性规划提供了与政策相关的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Unveiling the complexity paradox: How does energy policy mix complexity shape low-carbon transitions? 揭开复杂性悖论：能源政策如何混合复杂性塑造低碳转型？

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102075

Zihan Yin , Zhichao Ba , Liuhong Wang , Zujun Liu

The design of energy policy mixes plays a critical role in low-carbon transitions. While an increasingly diverse and extensive array of policy mixes may enhance systemic transformation, it can also generate policy conflicts that undermine effectiveness. To examine this tension, this study investigates how the structural complexity of energy policy mixes influences carbon emissions. We conceptualize the policy landscape as a bipartite network linking policy mixes and regions. From this network, we derive metrics for key characteristics: diversity (regional policy mix variety), ubiquity (policy mix prevalence), and complexity (a combined measure). Analyzing 10,771 Chinese energy policies, our statistical analysis suggests a nonlinear, U-shaped relationship between our measures of policy mix complexity and carbon emissions. The findings indicate that complexity is initially associated with reduced emissions, whereas excessive complexity leads to policy inefficiencies, ultimately hindering low-carbon transitions. Furthermore, we find that the balance between diversity and ubiquity is crucial for effective climate governance. Moreover, the U-shaped effect is contingent upon the regional level of technological innovation, which acts as a key moderator in shaping the low-carbon transition. This research provides novel quantitative insights and suggests that policymakers must optimize, rather than simply maximize, the intricacy of policy interventions to ensure their effectiveness.

能源政策组合的设计在低碳转型中起着至关重要的作用。虽然日益多样化和广泛的政策组合可能促进系统性转型，但也可能产生政策冲突，从而破坏有效性。为了检验这种紧张关系，本研究调查了能源政策混合的结构复杂性如何影响碳排放。我们将政策景观概念化为连接政策组合和地区的双向网络。从这个网络中，我们得出了关键特征的度量：多样性（区域政策组合多样性）、普遍性（政策组合普遍性）和复杂性（综合度量）。通过对10771项中国能源政策的分析，我们的统计分析表明政策组合复杂性与碳排放之间存在非线性u型关系。研究结果表明，复杂性最初与减少排放有关，而过度复杂性导致政策效率低下，最终阻碍低碳转型。此外，我们发现多样性和普遍性之间的平衡对于有效的气候治理至关重要。此外，u型效应取决于区域技术创新水平，而技术创新水平是形成低碳转型的关键调节因素。这项研究提供了新颖的定量见解，并建议决策者必须优化而不是简单地最大化政策干预的复杂性，以确保其有效性。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of ESG on dividend policy: The role of sustainability committee ESG对股利政策的影响：可持续发展委员会的作用

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.102026

Abdulateif A. Almulhim, Abdullah A. Aljughaiman

This study explores the influence of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores on dividend policies, additionally examining the role of sustainability committee as a moderating factor. This study employed the ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized methods of moments (GMM), 2SLS, and Heckman models to explore these relationships. Using a sample of 762 observations representing non-financial corporations listed on Saudi Exchange-listed companies between 2017 and 2022, panel regression results reveal a strong positive association between ESG performance and dividend payments. Firms with high ESG scores consistently uphold dividend distributions, showcasing their commitment to stakeholders and shareholders. Notably, the presence of a sustainability committee enhances this ESG–dividend relationship, with sustainable companies demonstrating a more substantial ESG-driven effect on dividends than their counterparts. These findings remain robust across alternative estimation methods (system GMM and 2SLS), providing actionable insights for investors, management, analysts, and policymakers focused on advancing ESG practices.

本研究探讨了环境、社会和治理（ESG）得分对股利政策的影响，并考察了可持续发展委员会作为调节因素的作用。本研究采用普通最小二乘（OLS）、广义矩量方法（GMM）、2SLS和Heckman模型来探讨这些关系。使用2017年至2022年期间在沙特交易所上市的非金融公司的762个观察样本，面板回归结果显示ESG绩效与股息支付之间存在强烈的正相关关系。ESG得分高的公司一贯坚持股息分配，展示了他们对利益相关者和股东的承诺。值得注意的是，可持续发展委员会的存在增强了这种esg -股息关系，可持续发展公司对股息的影响比其他公司更大。这些发现在其他评估方法（系统GMM和2SLS）中仍然是可靠的，为投资者、管理层、分析师和决策者提供了可操作的见解，专注于推进ESG实践。

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引用次数: 0