Energy Policy最新文献_第7页

Camelina oil for sustainable aviation fuel production: A scenario assessment for recovering European degraded soils 用于可持续航空燃料生产的亚麻荠油：恢复欧洲退化土壤的情景评估

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115043

M. Buffi , S. Bergonzoli , E. Medina-Martos , O. Hurtig , D. Chiaramonti , F. Tozzi , A. Monti , M.G. Sessa , C. Thiel , C. Schillaci

The European aviation sector is currently under pressure to rapidly integrate renewable energy sources, with a particular emphasis on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which are essential for achieving short-term decarbonization targets. This study proposes an innovative supply chain producing SAF according to the REFuelEU Aviation's progressive targets for 2050, the international ICAO-CORSIA mandates and the European Union's Renewable Energy Directive for greening the transport sector.

The study focuses on camelina (Camelina sativa L. Crantz) grown in Southern European regions on marginal land affected by severe soil degradation. In this case, according to the most recent policy requirements, “severely degraded lands” suitable for advanced biofuels production are currently defined as those under erosion with poor soil organic matter content or with high salinity. Unlike other common oilseeds, camelina can successfully grow in degraded and eroded soils making it particularly well-suited to produce low indirect land-use change (iLUC) risk feedstocks for SAF. The challenges of achieving profitable yields under marginal conditions are examined and discussed.

The results show a potential of 116 thousand km² of available lands that can produce 3.2 Mtoe per year of SAF, corresponding to 175 % of bio-SAF mandates in 2030. The calculated carbon intensity of SAF ranges between 10.5 and −30.8 gCO₂eq MJ⁻¹ depending on the carbon accumulation performances achieved in the cultivated soil and green energy used in the supply chain. By combining economics and greenhouse gas emission savings, the study explores the current gaps between conventional and innovative SAF production.

欧洲航空部门目前面临着迅速整合可再生能源的压力，特别强调可持续航空燃料（SAF），这对实现短期脱碳目标至关重要。本研究根据燃料燃料航空公司2050年的进步目标、国际民航组织- corsia的要求和欧盟绿色运输部门的可再生能源指令，提出了一个生产SAF的创新供应链。本研究以南欧地区受严重土壤退化影响的边缘土地上种植的亚麻荠（camelina sativa L. Crantz）为对象。在这种情况下，根据最新的政策要求，适合先进生物燃料生产的“严重退化土地”目前被定义为土壤有机质含量低或盐度高的侵蚀土地。与其他常见油籽不同，亚麻荠可以在退化和侵蚀的土壤中成功生长，使其特别适合生产低间接土地利用变化（iLUC）风险的SAF原料。在边际条件下实现盈利产量的挑战进行了审查和讨论。结果显示，11.6万平方公里的可用土地每年可生产320万吨油当量的SAF，相当于2030年生物SAF任务的175%。SAF的计算碳强度范围在10.5和- 30.8 gCO2eq MJ - 1之间，这取决于在耕地土壤中实现的碳积累性能和供应链中使用的绿色能源。通过结合经济效益和温室气体减排，该研究探讨了目前传统和创新SAF生产之间的差距。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of minimum energy efficiency standards on the private rental market 最低能源效益标准对私人租赁市场的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115039

Franz Fuerst , Xinyan Huang , Martin Sheppard

The decarbonisation of the built environment constitutes a critical frontier in global climate mitigation, yet it presents substantial challenges within the Private Rental Sector (PRS), where the “split incentive” problem results in landlords bearing the upfront costs of energy retrofits while tenants capture both economic benefits, such as reduced energy bills, and non-economic benefits, including improved thermal comfort, indoor air quality, and wellbeing. This study examines the economic effects of the UK's Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES), which restrict the ability of landlords to let out properties with the lowest two Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings, F and G. Using a uniquely comprehensive dataset linking over 520,000 rental listings with seven million property sales records, we employ a dual empirical strategy combining an EPC index-based Difference-in-Differences framework with a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design. The results reveal no statistically significant impact on rents for F-G rated properties and no spillover effects for potentially “next-in-line” D and E-rated properties. Large-sample evidence further indicates a slight increase in PRS property sales relative to other housing tenures following the implementation of MEES. These findings suggest that MEES has successfully driven improvements in building energy efficiency without inducing rent inflation and has exerted only a minimal effect on aggregate PRS supply, providing critical insights for the design of policies aimed at achieving net-zero targets in rental housing markets.

建筑环境的脱碳构成了全球气候减缓的关键前沿，但它在私人租赁行业（PRS）中提出了重大挑战，其中“分裂激励”问题导致房东承担能源改造的前期成本，而租户既获得经济效益，如减少能源费用，又获得非经济效益，包括改善热舒适度、室内空气质量和福祉。本研究考察了英国最低能源效率标准（MEES）的经济影响，该标准限制了房东出租最低两个能源绩效证书（EPC）评级F和g的房产的能力。我们使用了一个独特的综合数据集，将超过52万个租赁清单与700万个房产销售记录联系起来，我们采用了双重经验策略，将基于EPC指数的差异框架与尖锐的回归不连续性设计相结合。结果显示，对F-G级物业的租金没有统计学上的显著影响，对潜在的“下一个”D级和e级物业也没有溢出效应。大样本证据进一步表明，在实施MEES后，PRS物业销售相对于其他房屋租赁略有增加。这些发现表明，MEES成功地推动了建筑能源效率的提高，而没有引起租金通胀，并且对总PRS供应的影响很小，这为旨在实现租赁住房市场净零目标的政策设计提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Dealing with the ILUC risk of biofuel production for the energy transition 应对能源转型中生物燃料生产的ILUC风险

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115035

Renan Milagres L. Novaes , Marcelo Melo Ramalho Moreira , Sofia Marques Arantes , Luciane Chiodi Bachion , Thayse Aparecida Dourado Hernandes

Achieving climate neutrality requires renewable, diversified, and efficient energy systems, with sustainable biofuels playing a critical role in decarbonizing transportation. However, major concerns persist regarding indirect land-use change (ILUC). Adding ILUC quantitative emission factors to the carbon intensity of biofuels faced challenges and has been subject to criticism. In response, ILUC risk management approaches are increasingly considered as alternatives. Nevertheless, the most adequate ways to address them are still under debate. Drawing on the effectiveness of existing regulatory measures and insights from scientific literature, this paper proposes five main measures to address ILUC risk. They are focused on increasing the deployment of low ILUC-risk biofuels while preventing high ILUC-risk conditions. Key recommendations include: a) a ‘tiered approach’ for classifying low ILUC risk; b) comprehensive eligibility criteria for low-ILUC risk classification; c) considering zero deforestation criteria as measures to reduce high ILUC risks; d) establishing an intermediate risk category between low and high; and e) measures to address incomplete knowledge, such as phased implementation over time. By focusing on overcoming current limitations, this proposal aims to contribute to the deployment of sustainable biofuels on a sufficient scale to promote the energy transition while minimizing high ILUC risks.

实现气候中和需要可再生、多样化和高效的能源系统，可持续生物燃料在脱碳运输中发挥着关键作用。然而，关于间接土地利用变化（ILUC）的主要关切仍然存在。在生物燃料的碳强度中加入ILUC定量排放因子面临挑战，并受到批评。因此，ILUC风险管理方法越来越被视为替代方案。然而，解决这些问题的最适当方法仍在辩论中。根据现有监管措施的有效性和科学文献的见解，本文提出了应对ILUC风险的五项主要措施。他们的重点是增加低iluc风险生物燃料的部署，同时防止高iluc风险条件。主要建议包括：a)对低ILUC风险进行分级的“分层方法”；b)低iluc风险分类综合资格标准；c)考虑将零毁林标准作为降低ILUC高风险的措施；D)建立介于低和高之间的中间风险类别；e)解决不完全知识的措施，例如随着时间的推移分阶段实施。通过专注于克服当前的限制，本提案旨在促进可持续生物燃料的大规模部署，以促进能源转型，同时最大限度地降低高ILUC风险。

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引用次数: 0

Geospatial energy poverty assessment and clustering for policy prioritization 地理空间能源贫困评价与政策优选聚类

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115047

Giuliano Rancilio , Laura Campagna , Mattia Ricci , Paolo Sdringola , Marco Merlo

Energy poverty remains a critical challenge, marked by households struggling to access or afford adequate energy services. Previous research focuses on metrics for investigating energy poverty geospatially. Some of these metrics fail in spotting the vulnerabilities, considering average values in a territory. Moreover, the connection between energy poverty assessment and policy proposal is often missing. This paper presents a geospatial analysis of energy poverty in a developed country, focusing on Italian municipalities, using a novel multiparameter indicator to measure both economic and energy vulnerabilities. Building on previous research, the indicator integrates economic indices reflecting income-to-cost ratios and energy indices based on building efficiency and age. It concentrates on the critical tails of the distribution of incomes and buildings, to avoid being misled by mean values. Through clustering, the study identifies municipalities in three categories: highly vulnerable, energy poverty-relevant, and nonvulnerable. Each cluster highlights the socioeconomic and energy challenges faced by households, offering tailored policy recommendations. In particular, the energy poverty-relevant cluster includes 85 % of Italian municipalities and shows a clear correlation between low-performance building share and economic situation of poorer households. The findings suggest the importance of targeted interventions, including direct financial aid for the most vulnerable, energy efficiency incentives for middle-tier municipalities, and nonfinancial measures for better-performing areas (where barriers to energy efficiency could be regulatory, instead of economic). This approach allows policymakers to optimize public expenditures while addressing both immediate and structural drivers of energy poverty.

能源贫困仍然是一个严峻的挑战，其特点是家庭难以获得或负担得起充足的能源服务。以前的研究主要集中在地理空间上调查能源贫困的指标上。考虑到一个地区的平均值，其中一些指标在发现漏洞方面失败了。此外，能源贫困评估与政策建议之间的联系往往缺失。本文采用一种新的多参数指标来衡量经济和能源脆弱性，对一个发达国家的能源贫困进行了地理空间分析，重点是意大利的市政当局。在以往研究的基础上，该指标综合了反映收入成本比的经济指数和基于建筑效率和楼龄的能源指数。它集中于收入和建筑分布的关键尾部，以避免被平均值误导。通过聚类，该研究将城市划分为三类：高度脆弱、能源贫困相关和非脆弱。每个集群都强调了家庭面临的社会经济和能源挑战，并提供了量身定制的政策建议。特别是，与能源贫困相关的集群包括85%的意大利市政当局，并显示出低性能建筑份额与较贫困家庭的经济状况之间的明确相关性。研究结果表明，有针对性的干预措施很重要，包括对最弱势群体的直接财政援助，对中等城市的能效激励措施，以及对表现较好的地区（能效障碍可能是监管方面的，而不是经济方面的）采取非金融措施。这种方法使政策制定者能够优化公共支出，同时解决能源贫困的直接和结构性驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Technology-society nexus in post-COP 27 era: How digital innovation, energy transition, and green finance drive net-zero pathways in OECD countries 后缔约方会议时代的技术-社会联系：数字创新、能源转型和绿色金融如何推动经合组织国家的净零路径

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115045

Mubasher Zaman , Atta Ullah , Quande Qin , Muhammad Kashif

Eco-friendly green investments in digital technologies and renewable energy transition harmonized with climate policies are essential to achieving the net-zero carbon objective post-27th conference of the parties (COP-27). This research provides new policy implications on the technology-society nexus, analyzing data on energy transition, green finance, digital innovation, and carbon emissions in 37 OECD countries during 2000–2022, which is shaped by emerging climate policies. Utilizing a novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), robust through fully-modified OLS, bootstrap quantile regression, and Driscoll-Kraay fixed effects model, the study offers assistance in the transition towards a low-carbon society. It reveals that energy transition and green finance have a significantly negative effect on carbon emissions in all the quantiles. Digital innovation cuts carbon emissions very significantly up to the 0.60 quantile, and has no significant influence for higher quantiles, suggesting mixed/diverse technological impacts in various social settings. However, digital innovation moderates with energy transition (ETI × DIN) and significantly diminishes carbon emissions across all quantiles. Additionally, social inequality and economic growth hurt environmental health by increasing carbon emissions. Further, the D-H causality test reports both unidirectional and bidirectional relationships between the variables. Policymakers should formulate strategies that align with socially inclusive initiatives, enhance eco-oriented investments in digital technologies and renewable energy transition to implement zero-carbon policies and socio-technical strategies into climate frameworks, advancing the Sustainable Development Goals 7, 9, 13, and COP-27 commitments.

与气候政策相协调的生态友好型绿色数字技术投资和可再生能源转型对于实现缔约方第27次会议（COP-27）后的净零碳目标至关重要。本研究分析了37个经合组织国家2000-2022年期间的能源转型、绿色金融、数字创新和碳排放数据，为技术-社会关系提供了新的政策启示。利用一种新颖的矩分位数回归方法（MMQR），通过完全修正的OLS，自举分位数回归和Driscoll-Kraay固定效应模型具有鲁棒性，该研究为向低碳社会过渡提供了帮助。结果表明，能源转型和绿色金融在各分位数对碳排放均有显著的负向影响。数字创新在0.60分位数以内显著降低了碳排放，而在更高的分位数以内没有显著影响，这表明技术对各种社会环境的影响是混合的/多样化的。然而，数字创新随着能源转型（ETI × DIN）而趋于缓和，并显著减少了所有分位数的碳排放。此外，社会不平等和经济增长增加了碳排放，损害了环境健康。此外，D-H因果关系检验报告了变量之间的单向和双向关系。政策制定者应制定与社会包容性倡议相一致的战略，加强对数字技术和可再生能源转型的生态投资，将零碳政策和社会技术战略纳入气候框架，推进可持续发展目标7、9、13和cop27承诺。

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引用次数: 0

Barrier or driver: Patent thickets in the path of technological transition 障碍还是驱动者：技术转型道路上的专利丛林

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115046

Yishuang Liu , Hanmin Dong

The global transition to a low-carbon economy is a pressing challenge that requires fair and inclusive technological innovation. This study examines the influence of patent thickets on both corporate green innovation and sustainability performance, drawing on a panel of 2667 listed companies from 2015 to 2021. The main results reveal a dual effect: patent thickets significantly stimulate internal green innovation but increase ESG rating divergence, reflecting tensions between innovation incentives and consistent social recognition. Mechanism analysis reveals that operating leverage fosters innovation, while total leverage mitigates ESG divergence by balancing financial and operational structures. Heterogeneity results indicate that older and state-owned companies achieve stronger innovation gains, whereas ESG convergence depends on comprehensive, multi-channel environmental disclosure. By linking patent structures, innovation strategies, and ESG outcomes, this study provides global evidence from China, underscoring how to facilitate a just technological transition to a low-carbon economy.

全球向低碳经济转型是一项紧迫的挑战，需要公平和包容的技术创新。本研究以2015年至2021年的2667家上市公司为样本，考察了专利丛林对企业绿色创新和可持续发展绩效的影响。主要结果显示了双重效应：专利丛显著刺激了内部绿色创新，但增加了ESG评级差异，反映了创新激励与一致的社会认可之间的紧张关系。机制分析表明，经营杠杆促进创新，而总杠杆通过平衡财务结构和经营结构来缓解ESG分化。异质性结果表明，老企业和国有企业的创新收益更强，而ESG趋同依赖于全面、多渠道的环境信息披露。通过将专利结构、创新战略和ESG成果联系起来，本研究提供了来自中国的全球证据，强调了如何促进向低碳经济的公正技术转型。

引用次数: 0

Modelling the technical production potential of biomethane from anaerobic digestion to decarbonise the gas grid 模拟厌氧消化生物甲烷的技术生产潜力，以使天然气网脱碳

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115041

Camilla F. Hurst, Julian M. Allwood

With global natural gas demand reaching a record high in 2024, meeting Net Zero targets requires strategies that rapidly decarbonise the gas grid. One alternative is to substitute natural gas with biomethane produced from anaerobic digestion (AD) technologies. While recent work has modelled the global production potential of biomethane from AD, much of the literature is limited to analyses of specific geographies or feedstocks. This work contributes to this literature by modelling the technical production potential of both biomethane and digestate that considers a broader set of technical efficiency limitations across the AD system.

By applying this modelling approach to the United Kingdom, for the first time, this study models the technical production potential of biomethane for injection to the gas grid together with the corresponding amount of digestate. The results show that biomethane from AD could only displace about 5 % of current domestic demand for natural gas. It demonstrates that biomethane production should target applications that are difficult to decarbonise with other technologies. This can also support the primary benefit of AD as a waste management strategy. Policy development should focus on maximising the production of biomethane from existing waste and target specific applications that support a Net Zero economy.

随着全球天然气需求在2024年达到创纪录的高位，实现净零排放目标需要迅速使天然气网脱碳的战略。一种替代方案是用厌氧消化（AD）技术产生的生物甲烷替代天然气。虽然最近的工作已经模拟了AD生物甲烷的全球生产潜力，但许多文献仅限于对特定地理位置或原料的分析。这项工作通过对生物甲烷和消化液的技术生产潜力进行建模，考虑了整个AD系统中更广泛的技术效率限制，从而为该文献做出了贡献。通过将这种建模方法应用于英国，本研究首次对注入天然气网的生物甲烷的技术生产潜力以及相应数量的消化物进行了建模。结果表明，AD的生物甲烷只能替代目前国内天然气需求的5%左右。它表明，生物甲烷生产应该针对那些难以用其他技术脱碳的应用。这也可以支持作为废物管理战略的废物管理的主要好处。政策制定应侧重于最大限度地利用现有废物生产生物甲烷，并针对支持净零经济的具体应用。

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引用次数: 0

Research on the participation behavior of renewable energy in China's sustainable development price settlement mechanism: An agent-based simulation analysis 中国可持续发展价格结算机制中可再生能源参与行为研究：基于agent的模拟分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115042

Jian Han , Ying Zhou , Yuyan Weng , Junling Huang

China's sustainable development pricing settlement mechanism provides a risk-hedging tool for renewable energy market entry. However, this mechanism excludes benefits from other medium and long-term contracts and green certificates. This will create issues regarding the choice of how renewable energy enters the market. Therefore, analysis the effect of mechanism volume and price to the market participation behavior and the benefit of renewable energy is key to policy refinement. To this end, this paper constructs an agent-based multi-strategy evolutionary game model to examine the strategic evolutionary trends of renewable energy entities under varying mechanism scale constraints. The study also investigates their impacts on entity revenues and the scale of mechanism electricity subsidies. Analytical results reveal that: sufficient mechanism electricity safeguards renewable energy revenues but may escalate subsidy pressure incrementally each year; while reducing mechanism electricity alleviate subsidy pressure, they also lower contract prices for successful bidders, making the exit mechanism or high bidding strategy a more appealing choice for renewables. The study recommends that to boost the growth of renewable energy capacity, sufficient mechanism-based electricity volume should be guaranteed. As renewable energy expands in the future, efforts should be made to gradually reducing mechanism electricity in the future. Policymakers should optimize the formation mechanism for local mechanism electricity price cap and floors to align with electricity market signals, thereby ensuring the basic returns and orderly development of renewable energy.

中国可持续发展定价结算机制为可再生能源市场准入提供了风险对冲工具。但是，该机制不包括其他中长期合同和绿色证书的利益。这将产生关于选择可再生能源如何进入市场的问题。因此，分析机制量价对可再生能源市场参与行为和效益的影响是政策细化的关键。为此，本文构建了基于智能体的多策略演化博弈模型，考察了不同机制规模约束下可再生能源主体的战略演化趋势。研究还考察了它们对实体收入和机制电价补贴规模的影响。分析结果表明：充足的机制电力保障了可再生能源的收入，但可能使补贴压力逐年递增；减少机制电在缓解补贴压力的同时，也降低了中标者的合同价格，使退出机制或高竞价策略成为可再生能源更有吸引力的选择。该研究建议，为了促进可再生能源容量的增长，应该保证足够的基于机制的发电量。随着未来可再生能源的扩大，未来应努力逐步减少机制电。政策制定者应优化地方机制电价上限和下限的形成机制，与电力市场信号保持一致，确保可再生能源的基本回报和有序发展。

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引用次数: 0

Monetary policy shocks and day-ahead electricity markets: Insights from a “bizarre policy experiment” 货币政策冲击与未来电力市场：来自“离奇政策实验”的见解

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115036

Selahattin Murat Sirin , Dilek Uz

A well-functioning electricity market is fundamental to achieving economic efficiency and advancing the clean energy transition. However, inconsistent and poorly planned monetary policies can disrupt energy markets, distorting market signals, and introducing risks that hinder efficient operations. While the existing literature predominantly focuses on fossil fuel markets, this paper shifts the focus to electricity markets, which play a central role in the energy transition. Leveraging a unique monetary policy experiment, characterized by unorthodox policy decisions and the unusual and arbitrary preterm dismissals of central bank governors, this study examines the short-term effects of monetary policy shocks on day-ahead electricity markets in the context of a developing country. The findings reveal asymmetric impacts of monetary policy shocks on firms’ market behavior, with notable heterogeneity in responses. These dynamics pose additional challenges for electricity market operations and achieving emission reduction targets.

一个运转良好的电力市场是实现经济效益和推进清洁能源转型的基础。然而，不一致和计划不周的货币政策可能会扰乱能源市场，扭曲市场信号，并引入阻碍有效运营的风险。虽然现有文献主要关注化石燃料市场，但本文将重点转移到电力市场，电力市场在能源转型中起着核心作用。本研究利用一项独特的货币政策实验，以非正统的政策决定和央行行长不寻常的任意提前解职为特征，考察了发展中国家背景下货币政策冲击对日前电力市场的短期影响。研究结果表明，货币政策冲击对企业市场行为的影响是不对称的，其反应具有显著的异质性。这些动态给电力市场运作和实现减排目标带来了额外的挑战。

引用次数: 0

Time-varying systemic risk in electricity markets using generative adversarial networks: Market resilience and policy 使用生成对抗网络的电力市场时变系统风险：市场弹性和政策

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115034

Santiago Bohórquez Correa , Stephanía Mosquera-López , Jorge M. Uribe

Current frameworks and policy instruments for monitoring and regulating European electricity markets fall short of fully addressing the complexities that arise during periods of market distress. Our study makes two key contributions in this area: First, it provides a novel, integrative analysis of systemic risk across 25 energy markets, encompassing oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as 21 European electricity markets. Second, it introduces Time Series Generative Adversarial Networks to systemic risk literature, enabling real-time tracking of market resilience. Our findings show that systemic distress in European electricity markets was higher in Q3 2021 than in late 2021 and early 2022, despite record-high electricity prices in the latter period, which many assumed reflected maximum market distress. This suggests that policy interventions enacted at the end of 2021 effectively reduced systemic distress in European electricity markets. However, fossil fuel markets reached a peak in risk during the first quarter of 2022, underscoring energy security concerns for Europe due to its reliance on foreign fuel sources, as prices are set in a global rather than regional context. Our modeling framework offers a tool to assess such risks in real time, providing valuable insights for proactive policymaking in the European energy sector.

目前监测和监管欧洲电力市场的框架和政策工具未能充分解决市场困境期间出现的复杂性。我们的研究在这一领域做出了两个关键贡献：首先，它对25个能源市场（包括石油、天然气和煤炭）以及21个欧洲电力市场的系统性风险进行了新颖的综合分析。其次，它将时间序列生成对抗网络引入系统风险文献，实现市场弹性的实时跟踪。我们的研究结果显示，2021年第三季度欧洲电力市场的系统性困境高于2021年末和2022年初，尽管后者的电价创下历史新高，许多人认为这反映了最大的市场困境。这表明，2021年底实施的政策干预有效地减少了欧洲电力市场的系统性困境。然而，化石燃料市场在2022年第一季度达到了风险峰值，这凸显了欧洲对能源安全的担忧，因为欧洲对外国燃料来源的依赖，因为价格是在全球而不是地区背景下确定的。我们的建模框架提供了一种实时评估此类风险的工具，为欧洲能源部门的前瞻性政策制定提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0