Pub Date : 2025-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115022
Boyu Jin , Chaohui Zhou , Minjuan Zhao , Chen Zhang , Ziqing Tian
Against the global backdrop of aging populations and the pressing need for energy transitions in low- and middle-income countries, this study investigates the impact of China's new rural pension scheme (NRPS) on household energy transition using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and a quasi-experimental fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The results reveal that the pension “windfall” effectively promotes a shift toward cleaner energy sources. This influence is particularly pronounced among households characterized by better health, lower income levels, and stronger intergenerational interactions with their children. Overall, the study underscores the dual function of the NRPS in advancing both poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability, and it advocates for targeted policy interventions, such as health-based subsidies and intergenerational support programs, to enhance its positive outcomes in aging and energy-deprived communities.
{"title":"Pensions as hidden green levers: The impact of China's new rural pension scheme on household energy transition","authors":"Boyu Jin , Chaohui Zhou , Minjuan Zhao , Chen Zhang , Ziqing Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the global backdrop of aging populations and the pressing need for energy transitions in low- and middle-income countries, this study investigates the impact of China's new rural pension scheme (NRPS) on household energy transition using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and a quasi-experimental fuzzy regression discontinuity design. The results reveal that the pension “windfall” effectively promotes a shift toward cleaner energy sources. This influence is particularly pronounced among households characterized by better health, lower income levels, and stronger intergenerational interactions with their children. Overall, the study underscores the dual function of the NRPS in advancing both poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability, and it advocates for targeted policy interventions, such as health-based subsidies and intergenerational support programs, to enhance its positive outcomes in aging and energy-deprived communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115022"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145735062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-06DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996
Diana Chen, Xiaohong Yu, Eduardo Pardo-Piñashca
The rise of economic sanctions on Russia has exposed critical vulnerabilities in the EU energy systems. In this context, the study analyzes the dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions against Russia on crude oil price, natural gas price, and EU dependence on Russian crude oil and natural gas. The study introduces a novel Economic Sanction Effectiveness index composed of sanction type, economic leverage, media effect, and time decay. Incorporating this index in the SVAR model, the results show: (1) crude oil and natural gas prices rise after a sanction shock, then fall below their baseline; (2) following a sanction shock, EU dependence on Russian crude oil falls quickly and continues to decline during the first year; (3) EU dependence on Russian natural gas shows no immediate effect after the sanction shock, but begins to decrease after three months; (4) economic sanctions account for up to 30 % and 40 % of the fluctuations of EU dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil; (5) historical decomposition highlights the implementation of the oil price cap as a key event that shifted the impact of sanction shocks. Overall, the results offer valuable empirical insights for policymakers regarding the implications of sanctions on energy markets.
{"title":"Dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions on the EU-Russian energy market: Evidence on crude oil and natural gas","authors":"Diana Chen, Xiaohong Yu, Eduardo Pardo-Piñashca","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise of economic sanctions on Russia has exposed critical vulnerabilities in the EU energy systems. In this context, the study analyzes the dynamic effects of EU economic sanctions against Russia on crude oil price, natural gas price, and EU dependence on Russian crude oil and natural gas. The study introduces a novel Economic Sanction Effectiveness index composed of sanction type, economic leverage, media effect, and time decay. Incorporating this index in the SVAR model, the results show: (1) crude oil and natural gas prices rise after a sanction shock, then fall below their baseline; <strong>(</strong>2) following a sanction shock, EU dependence on Russian crude oil falls quickly and continues to decline during the first year; (3) EU dependence on Russian natural gas shows no immediate effect after the sanction shock, but begins to decrease after three months; (4) economic sanctions account for up to 30 % and 40 % of the fluctuations of EU dependence on Russian natural gas and crude oil; (5) historical decomposition highlights the implementation of the oil price cap as a key event that shifted the impact of sanction shocks. Overall, the results offer valuable empirical insights for policymakers regarding the implications of sanctions on energy markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 114996"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With increasing concerns about climate change, energy access, and equity issues, this research delves into the challenges and opportunities for a just transition to more sustainable electricity markets at the regional level. It explores the links between energy justice, sustainable development, and energy transition within the legal framework of electricity market structures and regulations at the regional levels in Europe and the Global South (Sub-Saharan Africa). Relying on doctrinal, comparative and thematic analyses, the research examines regional climate change policies and the transition to clean energy impacts from the lens of energy justice in the electricity market. This paper highlights the importance of making informed choices in response to climate and geopolitical crises, particularly in contexts where energy resources are scarce, to ensure security of supply. Identifying disparities and potential solutions contributes significantly to a more sustainable energy justice in Europe, while providing a guideline for fostering a just transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, considering the renewable energy potential in sub-Saharan Africa (East and West Africa). The European Energy Market reforms promote a sustainable energy transition, ensure supply security, and enhance competitiveness. Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges in implementing renewable energy projects due to infrastructure, financing, and governance. The African Carbon Initiative just like the EU Emissions Trading System could support a just and sustainable energy transition in electricity markets, enhancing universal access to energy and promoting an equitable distribution of resources.
{"title":"Just sustainable energy transition: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa security of supply","authors":"Francisca Kusi-Appiah , Halima Hussein , Elvira Dery","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With increasing concerns about climate change, energy access, and equity issues, this research delves into the challenges and opportunities for a just transition to more sustainable electricity markets at the regional level. It explores the links between energy justice, sustainable development, and energy transition within the legal framework of electricity market structures and regulations at the regional levels in Europe and the Global South (Sub-Saharan Africa). Relying on doctrinal, comparative and thematic analyses, the research examines regional climate change policies and the transition to clean energy impacts from the lens of energy justice in the electricity market. This paper highlights the importance of making informed choices in response to climate and geopolitical crises, particularly in contexts where energy resources are scarce, to ensure security of supply. Identifying disparities and potential solutions contributes significantly to a more sustainable energy justice in Europe, while providing a guideline for fostering a just transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, considering the renewable energy potential in sub-Saharan Africa (East and West Africa). The European Energy Market reforms promote a sustainable energy transition, ensure supply security, and enhance competitiveness. Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges in implementing renewable energy projects due to infrastructure, financing, and governance. The African Carbon Initiative just like the EU Emissions Trading System could support a just and sustainable energy transition in electricity markets, enhancing universal access to energy and promoting an equitable distribution of resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 114990"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115005
Yanyan Tang , Zongguo Wen , Song Hu , Yaoming Li , Minyan Lu
With the global uptake of Electric Buses (EBs), a number of power batteries are nearing end-of-life, straining local government finances and causing service suspensions, particularly in less developed regions. China introduced the world's first targeted subsidy policy for replacing retired EB batteries in 2025, leaving the implementation pathways and effects unknown. This study employs support vector machine, Weibull distribution and multi-scenario simulation to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of retired EB batteries. Using the Gini coefficient, the impact of subsidy levels and local fiscal contribution ratios on allocation equality is quantitatively assessed. Based on the historical EB sales data and power battery information from 2009 to 2022, a representative case study of China is conducted, covering 31 mainland provinces and 337 cities. The results show that: (i) Cumulative retired EB battery packs are projected to reach 0.40–0.44 million during 2025–2030; (ii) The average annual local government replacement subsidy is estimated to be 327.52–362.90 million CNY, with an overall Gini coefficient of 0.30–0.39 indicating reasonable fairness; (iii) Variations in subsidy amounts and cost-sharing ratios exert a non-linear impact on overall fairness, though an optimization range exists for enhancement. This research will promote sustainable industry development and regional coordination strategies for the EB industry.
{"title":"Allocation equality of battery replacement subsidy for electric buses: Evidence from provinces and cities in China","authors":"Yanyan Tang , Zongguo Wen , Song Hu , Yaoming Li , Minyan Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the global uptake of Electric Buses (EBs), a number of power batteries are nearing end-of-life, straining local government finances and causing service suspensions, particularly in less developed regions. China introduced the world's first targeted subsidy policy for replacing retired EB batteries in 2025, leaving the implementation pathways and effects unknown. This study employs support vector machine, Weibull distribution and multi-scenario simulation to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of retired EB batteries. Using the Gini coefficient, the impact of subsidy levels and local fiscal contribution ratios on allocation equality is quantitatively assessed. Based on the historical EB sales data and power battery information from 2009 to 2022, a representative case study of China is conducted, covering 31 mainland provinces and 337 cities. The results show that: (i) Cumulative retired EB battery packs are projected to reach 0.40–0.44 million during 2025–2030; (ii) The average annual local government replacement subsidy is estimated to be 327.52–362.90 million CNY, with an overall Gini coefficient of 0.30–0.39 indicating reasonable fairness; (iii) Variations in subsidy amounts and cost-sharing ratios exert a non-linear impact on overall fairness, though an optimization range exists for enhancement. This research will promote sustainable industry development and regional coordination strategies for the EB industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115005"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115014
Muhua Li , Yan Sun , Yan Xia , Zhaofu Yang , Chuxin Chen , Yongna Yuan , Pu Wang
The European Union (EU) will formally implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. While CBAM aims to protect EU industry competitiveness and mitigate carbon leakage, it will generate a series of trade and environmental equity implications for non-EU countries. Drawing on a global multi-regional input–output (GMRIO) model and a Carbon-Economic Inequality (CEI) Index, this study systematically evaluates CBAM's impact on export competitiveness and carbon–economic inequality in international trade. Using China as a case, it examines the mitigation potential of domestic carbon pricing and trade diversion strategies, as well as their joint effects. Results show that countries like India, Russia, and Turkey will face the sharpest declines in export competitiveness and economic losses. For China, although the impacts remain manageable in the initial stage, export losses rise from 0.78 billion to 11.14 billion euros with CBAM expansion. China's emissions trading system (ETS) helps reduce 30 %–60 % of CBAM-induced export losses, while trade diversion strategies alleviate carbon-economic inequality by adjusting export patterns and promoting high value-added industries. When combined, ETS and trade diversion strategies exhibit synergistic effects. This study provides an analytical framework and empirical evidence to understand CBAM's equity implications and assesses potential policy responses available to export-oriented developing countries.
{"title":"The impacts of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on international trade and policy responses: from an economic and environmental equity perspective","authors":"Muhua Li , Yan Sun , Yan Xia , Zhaofu Yang , Chuxin Chen , Yongna Yuan , Pu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union (EU) will formally implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. While CBAM aims to protect EU industry competitiveness and mitigate carbon leakage, it will generate a series of trade and environmental equity implications for non-EU countries. Drawing on a global multi-regional input–output (GMRIO) model and a Carbon-Economic Inequality (CEI) Index, this study systematically evaluates CBAM's impact on export competitiveness and carbon–economic inequality in international trade. Using China as a case, it examines the mitigation potential of domestic carbon pricing and trade diversion strategies, as well as their joint effects. Results show that countries like India, Russia, and Turkey will face the sharpest declines in export competitiveness and economic losses. For China, although the impacts remain manageable in the initial stage, export losses rise from 0.78 billion to 11.14 billion euros with CBAM expansion. China's emissions trading system (ETS) helps reduce 30 %–60 % of CBAM-induced export losses, while trade diversion strategies alleviate carbon-economic inequality by adjusting export patterns and promoting high value-added industries. When combined, ETS and trade diversion strategies exhibit synergistic effects. This study provides an analytical framework and empirical evidence to understand CBAM's equity implications and assesses potential policy responses available to export-oriented developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115014"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-04DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115011
Antony Andrews , Sean Kimpton
Why do some advanced economies remain persistently energy productivity-inefficient despite technological progress? This study argues that the constraint is institutional, not merely technical. Using a dynamic Bayesian stochastic frontier model for 37 OECD countries (2000–2021), this study develops the Energy Waste Severity Index (EWSI), a frontier-based metric that captures both the level and persistence of energy productivity inefficiency. The EWSI reveals a clear divide: countries such as Poland and Ireland face high, entrenched waste consistent with structural and governance frictions, whereas Japan, Switzerland, New Zealand, and the United States pair low inefficiency with weaker persistence. Because persistence signals institutional drag, technical fixes alone are insufficient; coordinated policy and governance reforms are required. By pairing benchmarking with persistence, the EWSI provides policymakers with a practical diagnostic tool to identify bottlenecks, align energy planning with skills, investment, and regulation, and monitor progress toward achieving SDG 7.
{"title":"Institutional reform over technical fixes: The energy waste severity index for tackling persistent inefficiency and advancing SDG 7","authors":"Antony Andrews , Sean Kimpton","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why do some advanced economies remain persistently energy productivity-inefficient despite technological progress? This study argues that the constraint is institutional, not merely technical. Using a dynamic Bayesian stochastic frontier model for 37 OECD countries (2000–2021), this study develops the Energy Waste Severity Index (EWSI), a frontier-based metric that captures both the level and persistence of energy productivity inefficiency. The EWSI reveals a clear divide: countries such as Poland and Ireland face high, entrenched waste consistent with structural and governance frictions, whereas Japan, Switzerland, New Zealand, and the United States pair low inefficiency with weaker persistence. Because persistence signals institutional drag, technical fixes alone are insufficient; coordinated policy and governance reforms are required. By pairing benchmarking with persistence, the EWSI provides policymakers with a practical diagnostic tool to identify bottlenecks, align energy planning with skills, investment, and regulation, and monitor progress toward achieving SDG 7.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115011"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145683569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115001
O. Canto-Franco , Javier Mendoza-Vizcaino , L. San-Pedro , A. Brown , K.G. Cedano-Villavicencio , J.F. Sarmiento-Franco , M.A. Escalante Soberanis
This study examines energy poverty in the Indigenous community of Pixyah, Yucatán, Mexico, located within the Ring of Cenotes, a protected natural reserve. In this region, electricity services are frequently intermittent, and potable water is extracted from underground aquifers through electromechanical pumping systems. Such conditions directly affect the community's ability to meet basic needs and exacerbate living precariousness. The research compares the impact of incorporating contextually relevant indicators into the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) and the Capabilities-driven Energy Satisfactors Index (CESI) through the integration of community perspectives during their formulation. Two additional variables were introduced “uninterrupted electricity supply” and “access to potable water” to better reflect local realities. The findings reveal that the community's MEPI exceeds 50 %, indicating that at least half of the population fails to meet the evaluated dimensions. However, the results also suggest that this value could be improved to approximately 20 % through the implementation of community-based solutions and locally driven initiatives. These results suggest that further contextual adjustments to the MEPI are necessary to improve its accuracy and applicability in specific social and territorial contexts.
{"title":"Community-based processes of energy poverty in indigenous communities in Mexico: The case study of Pixyah, Yucatan","authors":"O. Canto-Franco , Javier Mendoza-Vizcaino , L. San-Pedro , A. Brown , K.G. Cedano-Villavicencio , J.F. Sarmiento-Franco , M.A. Escalante Soberanis","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines energy poverty in the Indigenous community of Pixyah, Yucatán, Mexico, located within the Ring of Cenotes, a protected natural reserve. In this region, electricity services are frequently intermittent, and potable water is extracted from underground aquifers through electromechanical pumping systems. Such conditions directly affect the community's ability to meet basic needs and exacerbate living precariousness. The research compares the impact of incorporating contextually relevant indicators into the Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI) and the Capabilities-driven Energy Satisfactors Index (CESI) through the integration of community perspectives during their formulation. Two additional variables were introduced “uninterrupted electricity supply” and “access to potable water” to better reflect local realities. The findings reveal that the community's MEPI exceeds 50 %, indicating that at least half of the population fails to meet the evaluated dimensions. However, the results also suggest that this value could be improved to approximately 20 % through the implementation of community-based solutions and locally driven initiatives. These results suggest that further contextual adjustments to the MEPI are necessary to improve its accuracy and applicability in specific social and territorial contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 115001"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145651720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114949
Teklebrhan Negash , A.A. Solomon , Fredric Ottermo , Erik Möllerström , Farkas István , Seres István
The transition to a low-carbon economy and sustainable development necessitates the widespread adoption of renewable energy resources. This study implemented a novel methodological approach that combines flexibility to evaluate the interaction of various system design parameters and system efficiency through our newly developed system use index. It investigates the interaction among key system parameters, such as storage capacity, hours of storage, penetration, curtailment, wind-solar mix, and balancing capacity needs, by evaluating a wide range of scenarios using hourly data from PVGIS and GWA, thereby offering deeper insights into issues of system design and performance. These scenarios demonstrate that diurnal storage of less than 0.5 average daily demand is sufficient to satisfy a penetration of 80–90 % of the annual demand, in combination with varying levels of curtailment associated with specific wind-solar mix. However, depending on the resource mix, achieving the final 10–20 % penetration requires applications other than diurnal storage. While some previous studies have observed similar trends in limited scenarios, this work provides broader validation by simulating extensive and diverse scenarios across all major design parameters, confirming that the observed trends are case-independent. More importantly, it links the above system design parameters with system efficiency and demonstrates, for the first time, that an optimal range of these parameters ensures an optimal system efficiency, which forms a multidimensional constraint that is difficult to implement in any technoeconomic modeling tool but provides important boundary conditions for policy and regulation.
{"title":"System design issues of high renewable energy system, the case of Eritrea","authors":"Teklebrhan Negash , A.A. Solomon , Fredric Ottermo , Erik Möllerström , Farkas István , Seres István","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to a low-carbon economy and sustainable development necessitates the widespread adoption of renewable energy resources. This study implemented a novel methodological approach that combines flexibility to evaluate the interaction of various system design parameters and system efficiency through our newly developed system use index. It investigates the interaction among key system parameters, such as storage capacity, hours of storage, penetration, curtailment, wind-solar mix, and balancing capacity needs, by evaluating a wide range of scenarios using hourly data from PVGIS and GWA, thereby offering deeper insights into issues of system design and performance. These scenarios demonstrate that diurnal storage of less than 0.5 average daily demand is sufficient to satisfy a penetration of 80–90 % of the annual demand, in combination with varying levels of curtailment associated with specific wind-solar mix. However, depending on the resource mix, achieving the final 10–20 % penetration requires applications other than diurnal storage. While some previous studies have observed similar trends in limited scenarios, this work provides broader validation by simulating extensive and diverse scenarios across all major design parameters, confirming that the observed trends are case-independent. More importantly, it links the above system design parameters with system efficiency and demonstrates, for the first time, that an optimal range of these parameters ensures an optimal system efficiency, which forms a multidimensional constraint that is difficult to implement in any technoeconomic modeling tool but provides important boundary conditions for policy and regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"209 ","pages":"Article 114949"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145733360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114969
Mingkang Yuan , Jiabei Hu , Gavin Kader , Peng Lei
Sustainable agricultural development faces critical challenges from water scarcity, climate change, and poor resource allocation, requiring integrated management under uncertainty. This study proposes an enhanced Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus (WEFEN) model incorporating dynamic resource allocation while accounting for uncertainties in resource availability through fuzzy credibility constrained programming. The model solves a dynamic multi-objective optimization program, aiming to maximize economic benefits and clean energy production, while minimizing water and carbon footprints (using NSGA-II). Research findings from the Minjiang River Basin, China, indicate that: (1) optimized resource allocation overall increases agricultural income by 37.61 %, reduces the water and carbon footprints by 17.24 % and 9.20 %, respectively; (2) uncertainty analysis reveals that credibility levels (λ) ranging from 0.70 to 0.80 achieve optimal balance between economic returns and environmental sustainability, while λ > 0.8 reduces shortage risks but increases external water diversion costs by 6.8 %; (3) dynamic modeling reveals significant seasonal variations in resource allocation efficiency, with water demand fluctuating by up to 60 % across seasons, with large variability in clean energy output (1.21 × 105 kWh in winter with 5.88 × 105 kWh in autumn); (4) except for autumn, concurrent increases in economic benefits and reductions in carbon emissions are achievable, however, autumn's high agricultural productivity creates trade-offs requiring 40 % higher external water diversion to maintain production; (5) regional analysis shows that upstream areas face less environmental pressure due to limited agricultural production, while midstream and downstream areas experience higher water demand and carbon emissions. The study provides policy recommendations, including region-specific water management strategies and optimized seasonal resource allocation promoting sustainability.
{"title":"Dynamic optimization of agricultural resources within a Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystem Nexus: Uncertainty assessment of carbon and water footprints, and clean energy in the Minjiang River Basin, Western China","authors":"Mingkang Yuan , Jiabei Hu , Gavin Kader , Peng Lei","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable agricultural development faces critical challenges from water scarcity, climate change, and poor resource allocation, requiring integrated management under uncertainty. This study proposes an enhanced Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus (WEFEN) model incorporating dynamic resource allocation while accounting for uncertainties in resource availability through fuzzy credibility constrained programming. The model solves a dynamic multi-objective optimization program, aiming to maximize economic benefits and clean energy production, while minimizing water and carbon footprints (using NSGA-II). Research findings from the Minjiang River Basin, China, indicate that: (1) optimized resource allocation overall increases agricultural income by 37.61 %, reduces the water and carbon footprints by 17.24 % and 9.20 %, respectively; (2) uncertainty analysis reveals that credibility levels (λ) ranging from 0.70 to 0.80 achieve optimal balance between economic returns and environmental sustainability, while λ > 0.8 reduces shortage risks but increases external water diversion costs by 6.8 %; (3) dynamic modeling reveals significant seasonal variations in resource allocation efficiency, with water demand fluctuating by up to 60 % across seasons, with large variability in clean energy output (1.21 × 10<sup>5</sup> kWh in winter with 5.88 × 10<sup>5</sup> kWh in autumn); (4) except for autumn, concurrent increases in economic benefits and reductions in carbon emissions are achievable, however, autumn's high agricultural productivity creates trade-offs requiring 40 % higher external water diversion to maintain production; (5) regional analysis shows that upstream areas face less environmental pressure due to limited agricultural production, while midstream and downstream areas experience higher water demand and carbon emissions. The study provides policy recommendations, including region-specific water management strategies and optimized seasonal resource allocation promoting sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"209 ","pages":"Article 114969"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114998
M.O. de Vries , N. Mouter , T.A.P. Metze , S. Spruit
Citizen participation about energy policy is organized for substantive, normative and instrumental reasons. Myriad factors influence how these rationales and goals are shaped and attained. Of these factors the influence of the socio-political context in which participation is organized remains poorly understood, as most approaches to engaging society focus on discrete participatory events. This paper addresses this knowledge gap by providing insights into how the level of government at which participation about the energy transition is organized influences the goals and rationales of politicians, policymakers and citizens. Seven similar cases are compared – all based on the Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) method – in which 28,000 citizens advised their national, regional or local government about the sustainable energy mix. In all cases, most citizens worry about climate change and support sustainable energy objectives. However, different energy mixes are advised, and different values prevail in the motivations participants provided for their advice across multiple levels of government. Evaluative survey questions indicate citizens have more elaborate rationales and higher expectations when engaging in local participatory processes, which are most frequently criticized for their narrow scope. Finally, we observe local governments put most effort into satisfying multiple rationales for conducting participatory processes, based on 6 group discussions and 6 interviews with involved politicians and policymakers. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of the observed gap between citizen and government rationales across multiple levels of governments, arguing there is a need for aligning participatory processes in meaningful and effective participatory repertoires spanning across levels of government.
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