Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7615
Ning Xin, Botao Zhou, Haishan Chen, Shanlei Sun and Minchu Yan
Given that the vegetation over mid-high latitude Asia (MHA) has been more variable in recent years, it is necessary to better understand the physical causes of vegetation variations in this region. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), this study reveals a close linkage of the variability of spring (April–May) vegetation in MHA to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. When the winter PNA pattern lies in the positive phase, the NDVI tends to decrease in most parts of the MHA region during the following spring. Further analysis suggests that the lagged influence of winter PNA on spring atmospheric circulations and hence the vegetation in MHA is accomplished by the stratospheric pathway. The positive PNA phase can enhance the upward transport of wave energy into the stratosphere over the high latitudes in winter through the linear constructive interference of zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1), consequently leading to a weaker polar vortex in the stratosphere during February-March. Subsequently, the weakened polar vortex signal propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere, inducing the negative Arctic Oscillation-like circulation with an anomalous cyclonic circulation dominating the MHA region in spring. The anomalous cyclonic circulation further cools the surface air temperature in MHA via modulating downward solar radiation and temperature advection, resulting in a decrease of spring NDVI in situ.
{"title":"Significant influence of winter Pacific-North American pattern on spring vegetation in mid-high latitude Asia","authors":"Ning Xin, Botao Zhou, Haishan Chen, Shanlei Sun and Minchu Yan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7615","url":null,"abstract":"Given that the vegetation over mid-high latitude Asia (MHA) has been more variable in recent years, it is necessary to better understand the physical causes of vegetation variations in this region. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), this study reveals a close linkage of the variability of spring (April–May) vegetation in MHA to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. When the winter PNA pattern lies in the positive phase, the NDVI tends to decrease in most parts of the MHA region during the following spring. Further analysis suggests that the lagged influence of winter PNA on spring atmospheric circulations and hence the vegetation in MHA is accomplished by the stratospheric pathway. The positive PNA phase can enhance the upward transport of wave energy into the stratosphere over the high latitudes in winter through the linear constructive interference of zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1), consequently leading to a weaker polar vortex in the stratosphere during February-March. Subsequently, the weakened polar vortex signal propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere, inducing the negative Arctic Oscillation-like circulation with an anomalous cyclonic circulation dominating the MHA region in spring. The anomalous cyclonic circulation further cools the surface air temperature in MHA via modulating downward solar radiation and temperature advection, resulting in a decrease of spring NDVI in situ.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041
Luisa Pennacchio, Marie K Mikkelsen, Morten Krogsbøll, Maarten van Herpen and Matthew S Johnson
Despite their apparent utility in mitigating climate change, technologies for removing methane from air are in early stages of development. Here we evaluate the limiting physical constraints, for three types of systems: two- and three-dimensional infrastructure and atmospheric oxidation enhancement, focusing on removing low ( 1000 ppm) and ambient ( 2 ppm) methane from air. With the space velocities and removal efficiencies of current three-dimensional technologies, volumes of 7–350 km3 are required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1. Two-dimensional solutions are limited by the transport rate of methane to a surface. If every molecule of methane that collides with the surface is removed, an area of 1130 km2 is needed to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1 at ambient concentration. However, research shows that per-collision reaction probabilities are 10−8 requiring a surface area of 1010–1015 km2. Finally, we examine atmospheric oxidation enhancement, where 4.8 Tg yr−1 of Cl or 8.8 Tg yr−1 of OH is required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1, with precursors such as H2O2 or O3. However, limitations arise concerning multiple environmental impacts. We conclude that the physical and practical constraints are considerable, and identify the main barriers that must be addressed.
{"title":"Physical and practical constraints on atmospheric methane removal technologies","authors":"Luisa Pennacchio, Marie K Mikkelsen, Morten Krogsbøll, Maarten van Herpen and Matthew S Johnson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041","url":null,"abstract":"Despite their apparent utility in mitigating climate change, technologies for removing methane from air are in early stages of development. Here we evaluate the limiting physical constraints, for three types of systems: two- and three-dimensional infrastructure and atmospheric oxidation enhancement, focusing on removing low ( 1000 ppm) and ambient ( 2 ppm) methane from air. With the space velocities and removal efficiencies of current three-dimensional technologies, volumes of 7–350 km3 are required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1. Two-dimensional solutions are limited by the transport rate of methane to a surface. If every molecule of methane that collides with the surface is removed, an area of 1130 km2 is needed to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1 at ambient concentration. However, research shows that per-collision reaction probabilities are 10−8 requiring a surface area of 1010–1015 km2. Finally, we examine atmospheric oxidation enhancement, where 4.8 Tg yr−1 of Cl or 8.8 Tg yr−1 of OH is required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1, with precursors such as H2O2 or O3. However, limitations arise concerning multiple environmental impacts. We conclude that the physical and practical constraints are considerable, and identify the main barriers that must be addressed.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f
Madhulika Gurazada, Sonali McDermid, Ruth DeFries, Kyle F Davis, Jitendra Singh and Deepti Singh
Natural climate phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence the Indian monsoon and thereby the region’s agricultural systems. Understanding their influence can provide seasonal predictability of agricultural production metrics to inform decision-making and mitigate potential food security challenges. Here, we analyze the effects of ENSO and IOD on four agricultural production metrics (production, harvested area, irrigated area, and yields) for rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet across India from 1968 to 2015. El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in the production and yields of multiple crops. Impacts vary considerably by crop and geography. Maize and pearl millet experience large declines in both production and yields when compared to other grains in districts located in the northwest and southern peninsular regions. Associated with warmer and drier conditions during El Niño, >70% of all crop districts experience lower production and yields. Impacts of positive-IODs exhibit relatively more spatial variability. La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous increases in all production metrics across the crops, particularly benefiting traditional grains. Variations in impacts of ENSO and IOD on different cereals depend on where they are grown and differences in their sensitivity to climate conditions. We compare production metrics for each crop relative to rice in overlapping rainfed districts to isolate the influence of climate conditions. Maize production and yields experience larger reductions relative to rice, while pearl millet production and yields also experience reductions relative to rice during El Niños and positive-IODs. However, sorghum experiences enhanced production and harvested areas, and finger millet experiences enhanced production and yields. These findings suggest that transitioning from maize and rice to these traditional cereals could lower interannual production variability associated with natural climate variations.
{"title":"El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions simultaneously reduce the production of multiple cereals across India","authors":"Madhulika Gurazada, Sonali McDermid, Ruth DeFries, Kyle F Davis, Jitendra Singh and Deepti Singh","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f","url":null,"abstract":"Natural climate phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence the Indian monsoon and thereby the region’s agricultural systems. Understanding their influence can provide seasonal predictability of agricultural production metrics to inform decision-making and mitigate potential food security challenges. Here, we analyze the effects of ENSO and IOD on four agricultural production metrics (production, harvested area, irrigated area, and yields) for rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet across India from 1968 to 2015. El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in the production and yields of multiple crops. Impacts vary considerably by crop and geography. Maize and pearl millet experience large declines in both production and yields when compared to other grains in districts located in the northwest and southern peninsular regions. Associated with warmer and drier conditions during El Niño, >70% of all crop districts experience lower production and yields. Impacts of positive-IODs exhibit relatively more spatial variability. La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous increases in all production metrics across the crops, particularly benefiting traditional grains. Variations in impacts of ENSO and IOD on different cereals depend on where they are grown and differences in their sensitivity to climate conditions. We compare production metrics for each crop relative to rice in overlapping rainfed districts to isolate the influence of climate conditions. Maize production and yields experience larger reductions relative to rice, while pearl millet production and yields also experience reductions relative to rice during El Niños and positive-IODs. However, sorghum experiences enhanced production and harvested areas, and finger millet experiences enhanced production and yields. These findings suggest that transitioning from maize and rice to these traditional cereals could lower interannual production variability associated with natural climate variations.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad75ab
Ahmed M S Kheir, Osama A M Ali, Ashifur Rahman Shawon, Ahmed S Elrys, Marwa G M Ali, Mohamed A Darwish, Ahmed M Elmahdy, Ayman Farid Abou-Hadid, Rogerio de S Nóia Júnior and Til Feike
Wheat’s nutritional value is critical for human nutrition and food security. However, more attention is needed, particularly regarding the content and concentration of iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn), especially in the context of climate change (CC) impacts. To address this, various controlled field experiments were conducted, involving the cultivation of three wheat cultivars over three growing seasons at multiple locations with different soil and climate conditions under varying Fe and Zn treatments. The yield and yield attributes, including nutritional values such as nitrogen (N), Fe and Zn, from these experiments were integrated with national yield statistics from other locations to train and test different machine learning (ML) algorithms. Automated ML leveraging a large number of models, outperformed traditional ML models, enabling the training and testing of numerous models, and achieving robust predictions of grain yield (GY) (R2 > 0.78), N (R2 > 0.75), Fe (R2 > 0.71) and Zn (R2 > 0.71) through a stacked ensemble of all models. The ensemble model predicted GY, N, Fe, and Zn at spatial explicit in the mid-century (2020–2050) using three Global Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, and MRI-ESM2-0 under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) specifically SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, from the downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. Averaged across different GCMs and SSPs, CC is projected to increase wheat yield by 4.5%, and protein concentration by 0.8% with high variability. However, it is expected to decrease Fe concentration by 5.5%, and Zn concentration by 4.5% in the mid-century (2020–2050) relative to the historical period (1980–2010). Positive impacts of CC on wheat yield encountered by negative impacts on nutritional concentrations, further exacerbating challenges related to food security and nutrition.
{"title":"Impacts of climate change on spatial wheat yield and nutritional values using hybrid machine learning","authors":"Ahmed M S Kheir, Osama A M Ali, Ashifur Rahman Shawon, Ahmed S Elrys, Marwa G M Ali, Mohamed A Darwish, Ahmed M Elmahdy, Ayman Farid Abou-Hadid, Rogerio de S Nóia Júnior and Til Feike","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad75ab","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad75ab","url":null,"abstract":"Wheat’s nutritional value is critical for human nutrition and food security. However, more attention is needed, particularly regarding the content and concentration of iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn), especially in the context of climate change (CC) impacts. To address this, various controlled field experiments were conducted, involving the cultivation of three wheat cultivars over three growing seasons at multiple locations with different soil and climate conditions under varying Fe and Zn treatments. The yield and yield attributes, including nutritional values such as nitrogen (N), Fe and Zn, from these experiments were integrated with national yield statistics from other locations to train and test different machine learning (ML) algorithms. Automated ML leveraging a large number of models, outperformed traditional ML models, enabling the training and testing of numerous models, and achieving robust predictions of grain yield (GY) (R2 > 0.78), N (R2 > 0.75), Fe (R2 > 0.71) and Zn (R2 > 0.71) through a stacked ensemble of all models. The ensemble model predicted GY, N, Fe, and Zn at spatial explicit in the mid-century (2020–2050) using three Global Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, and MRI-ESM2-0 under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) specifically SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, from the downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. Averaged across different GCMs and SSPs, CC is projected to increase wheat yield by 4.5%, and protein concentration by 0.8% with high variability. However, it is expected to decrease Fe concentration by 5.5%, and Zn concentration by 4.5% in the mid-century (2020–2050) relative to the historical period (1980–2010). Positive impacts of CC on wheat yield encountered by negative impacts on nutritional concentrations, further exacerbating challenges related to food security and nutrition.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad76bf
Tinashe Lindel Dirwai, Cuthbert Taguta, Aidan Senzanje, Luxon Nhamo, Olufunke Cofie, Bruce Lankford, Harsen Nyambe Nyambe and Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi
Efficient agricultural water management (AWM) practices enhance crop water productivity and promote climate change adaptation and resilience initiatives, particularly in smallholder farming systems. Approximately 90% of sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) agriculture is rainfed under smallholder farmers who constitute about 60% of the continent’s population and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. While AWM is central to the African agenda, knowledge of AWM is fragmented, making it challenging to operationalize regional initiatives at country levels. Therefore, this study sought to review the status of AWM practices and technologies in Africa and provide guidelines, scenarios, and investment plans to guide the prioritization and operationalization of the African Union’s irrigation development and AWM (AU-IDAWM) initiative. The initiative proposes four developmental pathways; 1—improved water control and watershed management in rain-fed farming, 2—farmer-led irrigation, 3—irrigation scheme development and modernization, and 4—unconventional water use for irrigation. The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses approach guided the systematic literature review. The study indicates that most agricultural production systems are mainly under pathways 1 and 2, which dictate the subsequent AWM practices. Pathway 4 had isolated adoption in North Africa. SSA exhibited overlaps in opportunities for AWM, whereas North Africa had green energy and strong extension services. The challenges were unique to each geopolitical region. Policy-related issues affected North Africa, whilst low investment in AWM dominated West Africa. Poor institutional coordination plagued East Africa, whilst low access to extension services affected Southern Africa. The Central African region was undermined by poor management practices that culminated in soil salinity in the agricultural lands. Targeted and scalable investments across interventions are necessary topotentially improve AWM uptake and subsequent food security in the continent. Also, institutional setups are essential in coordinating efforts towards achieving AWM. Extension services are essential information dissemination platforms for adopting effective climate-smart agriculture.
{"title":"Status of agricultural water management practices in Africa: a review for the prioritisation and operationalisation of the Africa Union’s irrigation development and agricultural water management (AU-IDAWM) strategy","authors":"Tinashe Lindel Dirwai, Cuthbert Taguta, Aidan Senzanje, Luxon Nhamo, Olufunke Cofie, Bruce Lankford, Harsen Nyambe Nyambe and Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad76bf","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad76bf","url":null,"abstract":"Efficient agricultural water management (AWM) practices enhance crop water productivity and promote climate change adaptation and resilience initiatives, particularly in smallholder farming systems. Approximately 90% of sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) agriculture is rainfed under smallholder farmers who constitute about 60% of the continent’s population and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. While AWM is central to the African agenda, knowledge of AWM is fragmented, making it challenging to operationalize regional initiatives at country levels. Therefore, this study sought to review the status of AWM practices and technologies in Africa and provide guidelines, scenarios, and investment plans to guide the prioritization and operationalization of the African Union’s irrigation development and AWM (AU-IDAWM) initiative. The initiative proposes four developmental pathways; 1—improved water control and watershed management in rain-fed farming, 2—farmer-led irrigation, 3—irrigation scheme development and modernization, and 4—unconventional water use for irrigation. The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses approach guided the systematic literature review. The study indicates that most agricultural production systems are mainly under pathways 1 and 2, which dictate the subsequent AWM practices. Pathway 4 had isolated adoption in North Africa. SSA exhibited overlaps in opportunities for AWM, whereas North Africa had green energy and strong extension services. The challenges were unique to each geopolitical region. Policy-related issues affected North Africa, whilst low investment in AWM dominated West Africa. Poor institutional coordination plagued East Africa, whilst low access to extension services affected Southern Africa. The Central African region was undermined by poor management practices that culminated in soil salinity in the agricultural lands. Targeted and scalable investments across interventions are necessary topotentially improve AWM uptake and subsequent food security in the continent. Also, institutional setups are essential in coordinating efforts towards achieving AWM. Extension services are essential information dissemination platforms for adopting effective climate-smart agriculture.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7307
Xinping Xu, Shengping He, Botao Zhou, Bo Sun
It is well-known that climate warming increases air temperature and reduces cold extremes in the long-term. But internal variability strongly modulates the variability of temperature at mid- and- high latitudes, for example, causing the remarkable cooling and severe winter weather over Eurasia from the 1990s to the early 2010s. It remains unclear whether the occurrence of Eurasian cooling and cold extremes will be offset by climate warming or stimulated by internal variability in the future. Based on the Sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model projections for 2015–2100, this study shows that the projected probability of Eurasian cooling trend decreases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration in the long-term (i.e. 2070–2099) from 14.8% under SSP126 to 0.9% under SSP585. In the near-term (i.e. 2021–2050), however, Eurasian cooling occurrences are less influenced by different emission scenarios. Coinciding with deep Arctic warming throughout the troposphere, the projected significant Eurasian cooling exhibits similar pattern and intensity among different scenarios. The similar trend towards tropospheric anticyclone over the Arctic among different scenarios in the near-term promotes the deep Arctic warming-Eurasian cooling trend through transporting warm (cold) air into the Arctic (mid-latitudes). Moreover, winter extreme cold anomalies (i.e. −3.0–−2.0 °C) and extreme cold days (i.e. 4–6 d) over the Eurasian continent are not sensitive to emission scenarios in the near-term. In the long-term, the accelerating climate warming under high-emission scenarios significantly reduces the frequency and intensity of Eurasian cold extremes compared to low-emission scenarios. Therefore, the occurrence of Eurasian cooling trend and cold extremes in the near-term will be dominated by internal influences (e.g. Ural blocking) and will rely more on the internal variability after the mid-century if carbon neutrality goal is achieved.
{"title":"CMIP6 near-term and long-term projections of Eurasian winter cooling trend and cold extremes","authors":"Xinping Xu, Shengping He, Botao Zhou, Bo Sun","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7307","url":null,"abstract":"It is well-known that climate warming increases air temperature and reduces cold extremes in the long-term. But internal variability strongly modulates the variability of temperature at mid- and- high latitudes, for example, causing the remarkable cooling and severe winter weather over Eurasia from the 1990s to the early 2010s. It remains unclear whether the occurrence of Eurasian cooling and cold extremes will be offset by climate warming or stimulated by internal variability in the future. Based on the Sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model projections for 2015–2100, this study shows that the projected probability of Eurasian cooling trend decreases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration in the long-term (i.e. 2070–2099) from 14.8% under SSP126 to 0.9% under SSP585. In the near-term (i.e. 2021–2050), however, Eurasian cooling occurrences are less influenced by different emission scenarios. Coinciding with deep Arctic warming throughout the troposphere, the projected significant Eurasian cooling exhibits similar pattern and intensity among different scenarios. The similar trend towards tropospheric anticyclone over the Arctic among different scenarios in the near-term promotes the deep Arctic warming-Eurasian cooling trend through transporting warm (cold) air into the Arctic (mid-latitudes). Moreover, winter extreme cold anomalies (i.e. −3.0–−2.0 °C) and extreme cold days (i.e. 4–6 d) over the Eurasian continent are not sensitive to emission scenarios in the near-term. In the long-term, the accelerating climate warming under high-emission scenarios significantly reduces the frequency and intensity of Eurasian cold extremes compared to low-emission scenarios. Therefore, the occurrence of Eurasian cooling trend and cold extremes in the near-term will be dominated by internal influences (e.g. Ural blocking) and will rely more on the internal variability after the mid-century if carbon neutrality goal is achieved.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e0
Romain Presty, Olivier Massol, Emma Jagu, Pascal da Costa
An intense global research effort on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies is generating a rapidly expanding scientific literature. These contributions stem from various disciplines and investigate various CDR concepts and their potential implications. This study conducts an updated analysis of the international research effort on CDR from 2012 to 2023, examining 7893 publications using bibliometric techniques. We focus on the geographic distribution of technology-specific research and the funding driving this research. Significant publication growth is observed post-2015, particularly after 2018 and in 2023, driven primarily by the EU, China, and the US. Notably, biochar, afforestation/reforestation, and soil carbon sequestration are among the most researched CDR options, with direct air carbon capture and storage, bioenergy carbon capture and storage, and blue carbon also receiving substantial attention, especially in 2023. Analysis of scientific funding patterns aligns with these trends. Based on these findings, the study proposes a knowledge roadmap to elucidate emerging trends in CDR literature, offering insights for future research and policy development.
{"title":"Mapping the landscape of carbon dioxide removal research: a bibliometric analysis","authors":"Romain Presty, Olivier Massol, Emma Jagu, Pascal da Costa","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad71e0","url":null,"abstract":"An intense global research effort on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies is generating a rapidly expanding scientific literature. These contributions stem from various disciplines and investigate various CDR concepts and their potential implications. This study conducts an updated analysis of the international research effort on CDR from 2012 to 2023, examining 7893 publications using bibliometric techniques. We focus on the geographic distribution of technology-specific research and the funding driving this research. Significant publication growth is observed post-2015, particularly after 2018 and in 2023, driven primarily by the EU, China, and the US. Notably, biochar, afforestation/reforestation, and soil carbon sequestration are among the most researched CDR options, with direct air carbon capture and storage, bioenergy carbon capture and storage, and blue carbon also receiving substantial attention, especially in 2023. Analysis of scientific funding patterns aligns with these trends. Based on these findings, the study proposes a knowledge roadmap to elucidate emerging trends in CDR literature, offering insights for future research and policy development.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6f2a
Sudatta Ray, Sally M Benson
Pumping energy is a key component of the groundwater governance challenge, yet it is largely missing in the discourse on agricultural use of groundwater. A sub-category of the literature studying groundwater-energy nexus tends to focus on groundwater depletion hotspots where entrenched interests and long-standing histories restrict the range of feasible energy pricing options. Using an agent-based model, we estimate the expected impact of expanding groundwater irrigation under five different energy provision models in Odisha, an Indian state with among the lowest irrigation coverage, and, therefore, is free of path-dependent policies. We find that aquifer properties play a crucial role in mediating the groundwater-energy nexus. In this study region, on average, the maximum volume of water that can be pumped from a well of a specific depth in an alluvial aquifer is approximately 150 times the volume that can be pumped from a well in a hard-rock aquifer. Therefore, the risk of over-consumption and aquifer depletion is a far greater challenge in alluvial than hard-rock aquifers. Risks of groundwater consumption and depletion can be limited in hard-rock aquifers provided the number and depths of wells can be controlled. Capital subsidies for well construction could be an effective policy to increase irrigated areas as long as economic incentives for digging deeper are not distorted. Our results imply that solar pumps are a relatively safe option for hard-rock regions where deep drawdowns naturally limit the extent of over-extraction. Solar pumps are also estimated to be among the most economical for expanding irrigation. Using a novel data set comprising biophysical and socioeconomic data, we find hard-rock regions to have limited irrigation coverage, high availability of annually replenishable groundwater, and high concentrations of marginalized farmers. Therefore, groundwater irrigation expansion in hard-rock areas could have dual benefits of ensuring future food security and targeting poverty reduction.
{"title":"Energy models in service of aquifer specific groundwater irrigation expansion in India","authors":"Sudatta Ray, Sally M Benson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6f2a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6f2a","url":null,"abstract":"Pumping energy is a key component of the groundwater governance challenge, yet it is largely missing in the discourse on agricultural use of groundwater. A sub-category of the literature studying groundwater-energy nexus tends to focus on groundwater depletion hotspots where entrenched interests and long-standing histories restrict the range of feasible energy pricing options. Using an agent-based model, we estimate the expected impact of expanding groundwater irrigation under five different energy provision models in Odisha, an Indian state with among the lowest irrigation coverage, and, therefore, is free of path-dependent policies. We find that aquifer properties play a crucial role in mediating the groundwater-energy nexus. In this study region, on average, the maximum volume of water that can be pumped from a well of a specific depth in an alluvial aquifer is approximately 150 times the volume that can be pumped from a well in a hard-rock aquifer. Therefore, the risk of over-consumption and aquifer depletion is a far greater challenge in alluvial than hard-rock aquifers. Risks of groundwater consumption and depletion can be limited in hard-rock aquifers provided the number and depths of wells can be controlled. Capital subsidies for well construction could be an effective policy to increase irrigated areas as long as economic incentives for digging deeper are not distorted. Our results imply that solar pumps are a relatively safe option for hard-rock regions where deep drawdowns naturally limit the extent of over-extraction. Solar pumps are also estimated to be among the most economical for expanding irrigation. Using a novel data set comprising biophysical and socioeconomic data, we find hard-rock regions to have limited irrigation coverage, high availability of annually replenishable groundwater, and high concentrations of marginalized farmers. Therefore, groundwater irrigation expansion in hard-rock areas could have dual benefits of ensuring future food security and targeting poverty reduction.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad751f
Mingna Wu, Chao Li, Zhongshi Zhang
Climate models project a weakening and expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) under global warming but with considerable spread in the magnitude of these changes. Here, utilizing models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we illustrate how the variance in projected changes in the HC arises from equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) uncertainty across models. Models with higher ECS project a greater extent of static stability increase hence larger HC changes. Using the best estimate of ECS with value of 3 K (∼2.5–4.0 K) to constrain the HC projection, we reveal that the constrained projection yields a 15% (11%) decrease in the weakening (poleward shift) of the HC in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere compared to the multimodel mean under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The corresponding projection uncertainty is reduced by about 77.4% and 75.6%, respectively. Our results indicate a smaller-than-expected change in the HC in response to increased CO2 concentrations.
气候模式预测，在全球变暖的情况下，哈德利环流（HC）会减弱和扩张，但这些变化的幅度有相当大的差异。在这里，我们利用最新的耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段（CMIP6）的模式，说明了 HC 预测变化的差异是如何产生于各模式间平衡气候敏感性（ECS）的不确定性。ECS 较高的模式预测的静态稳定性增加的程度更大，因此 HC 变化也更大。使用最佳估计的 ECS 值 3 K（∼2.5-4.0 K）来约束 HC 预测，我们发现与 SSP5-8.5 情景下的多模式平均值相比，约束预测产生的北半球（南半球）HC 减弱（极向移动）减少了 15%（11%）。相应的预测不确定性分别降低了约 77.4% 和 75.6%。我们的结果表明，随着二氧化碳浓度的增加，碳氢化合物的变化小于预期。
{"title":"Recalibrated projections of the Hadley circulation under global warming","authors":"Mingna Wu, Chao Li, Zhongshi Zhang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad751f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad751f","url":null,"abstract":"Climate models project a weakening and expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) under global warming but with considerable spread in the magnitude of these changes. Here, utilizing models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we illustrate how the variance in projected changes in the HC arises from equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) uncertainty across models. Models with higher ECS project a greater extent of static stability increase hence larger HC changes. Using the best estimate of ECS with value of 3 K (∼2.5–4.0 K) to constrain the HC projection, we reveal that the constrained projection yields a 15% (11%) decrease in the weakening (poleward shift) of the HC in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere compared to the multimodel mean under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The corresponding projection uncertainty is reduced by about 77.4% and 75.6%, respectively. Our results indicate a smaller-than-expected change in the HC in response to increased CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea3
Kanishka B Narayan, Pralit Patel, Marshall Wise, Abigail Snyder, Kate Calvin, Neal Graham
Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.
{"title":"Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model","authors":"Kanishka B Narayan, Pralit Patel, Marshall Wise, Abigail Snyder, Kate Calvin, Neal Graham","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea3","url":null,"abstract":"Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"179 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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