Pub Date : 2024-07-11DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d7e
Peng Ji and Xing Yuan
Climate warming has induced significant transitions from slowly-developing droughts to rapidly-developing flash droughts in China, causing broad impacts on ecosystems, hydrological regimes, and society. To date, most studies focused on temporal evolution of flash droughts, while neglected the spatial expansion which is essential for understanding their origins and spatial propagations, especially for mega flash droughts. Based on the long-term (1940–2022) dataset of the 5th generation of the European ReAnalysis, here we use a three-dimensional drought identification method to analyze the disparities and similarities in the spatiotemporal dynamics of flash and slow droughts at the subseasonal time scale over China. Although half of the flash and slow droughts are characterized by small areas (<5000 km2), short durations (30–45 d) and short propagation distances of drought centroids (<50 km), the probability of large-scale (>30 000 km2) flash droughts with long propagation distances (>100 km) is twice of slow droughts. Moreover, global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses reveal that South China (SC) and North China are hotspots for large-scale flash and slow droughts, respectively, and they both show significant increasing trends (0.11–0.12 events/decade) during 1940–2022. Without these large-scale droughts, there is no obvious difference in spatial distributions of the frequency of flash and slow droughts. Despite disparities, both large-scale flash and slow droughts show a preferential westward propagation, with 60%–67% of the movements consistent with the pathways of atmospheric water vapor flux anomaly. Our study urges the understanding and prevention of large-scale flash drought events, especially in SC.
{"title":"Disparities and similarities in the spatiotemporal dynamics of flash and slow droughts in China","authors":"Peng Ji and Xing Yuan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d7e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d7e","url":null,"abstract":"Climate warming has induced significant transitions from slowly-developing droughts to rapidly-developing flash droughts in China, causing broad impacts on ecosystems, hydrological regimes, and society. To date, most studies focused on temporal evolution of flash droughts, while neglected the spatial expansion which is essential for understanding their origins and spatial propagations, especially for mega flash droughts. Based on the long-term (1940–2022) dataset of the 5th generation of the European ReAnalysis, here we use a three-dimensional drought identification method to analyze the disparities and similarities in the spatiotemporal dynamics of flash and slow droughts at the subseasonal time scale over China. Although half of the flash and slow droughts are characterized by small areas (<5000 km2), short durations (30–45 d) and short propagation distances of drought centroids (<50 km), the probability of large-scale (>30 000 km2) flash droughts with long propagation distances (>100 km) is twice of slow droughts. Moreover, global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses reveal that South China (SC) and North China are hotspots for large-scale flash and slow droughts, respectively, and they both show significant increasing trends (0.11–0.12 events/decade) during 1940–2022. Without these large-scale droughts, there is no obvious difference in spatial distributions of the frequency of flash and slow droughts. Despite disparities, both large-scale flash and slow droughts show a preferential westward propagation, with 60%–67% of the movements consistent with the pathways of atmospheric water vapor flux anomaly. Our study urges the understanding and prevention of large-scale flash drought events, especially in SC.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141610226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b07
Katharina Seeger, Andreas Peffeköver, Philip S J Minderhoud, Anissa Vogel, Helmut Brückner, Frauke Kraas, Nay Win Oo and Dominik Brill
Coastal lowlands and river deltas worldwide are increasingly exposed to coastal, pluvial and fluvial flooding as well as relative sea-level rise (RSLR). However, information about both single and multiple flood-type hazards, their potential impact and the characteristics of areas, population and assets at risk is often still limited as high-quality data either does not exist or is not accessible. This often constitutes a main barrier for generating sound assessments, especially for scientific and public communities in the so-called Global South. We provide a standardised, integrative approach for the first-order assessment of these single and multiple flood-type hazards and show how this can be conducted for data-sparse, hardly accessible and inaccessible coastal lowlands such as the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar by using only open accessible and freely available datasets of satellite imagery, global precipitation estimates, satellite-based river discharge measurements, elevation, land use, and population data. More than 70% of the delta, mainly used for agriculture, and about 40% of its present population are prone to flooding due to either monsoon precipitation and runoff, storm surge, and RSLR, or their combination, jeopardising food security and economic development in the region. The approach allows for the integration and combination of various datasets, combined in a highly flexible workflow that performs at low computational capacities, supporting the evaluation of flood-prone areas on regional and local scale for data-sparse coastal lowlands worldwide. It thereby allows to attribute different types of flood hazards, complements concepts of vulnerability and risk, and supports risk-informed decision making and development of effective multi-flooding adaptation strategies.
{"title":"Evaluating flood hazards in data-sparse coastal lowlands: highlighting the Ayeyarwady Delta (Myanmar)","authors":"Katharina Seeger, Andreas Peffeköver, Philip S J Minderhoud, Anissa Vogel, Helmut Brückner, Frauke Kraas, Nay Win Oo and Dominik Brill","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b07","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal lowlands and river deltas worldwide are increasingly exposed to coastal, pluvial and fluvial flooding as well as relative sea-level rise (RSLR). However, information about both single and multiple flood-type hazards, their potential impact and the characteristics of areas, population and assets at risk is often still limited as high-quality data either does not exist or is not accessible. This often constitutes a main barrier for generating sound assessments, especially for scientific and public communities in the so-called Global South. We provide a standardised, integrative approach for the first-order assessment of these single and multiple flood-type hazards and show how this can be conducted for data-sparse, hardly accessible and inaccessible coastal lowlands such as the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar by using only open accessible and freely available datasets of satellite imagery, global precipitation estimates, satellite-based river discharge measurements, elevation, land use, and population data. More than 70% of the delta, mainly used for agriculture, and about 40% of its present population are prone to flooding due to either monsoon precipitation and runoff, storm surge, and RSLR, or their combination, jeopardising food security and economic development in the region. The approach allows for the integration and combination of various datasets, combined in a highly flexible workflow that performs at low computational capacities, supporting the evaluation of flood-prone areas on regional and local scale for data-sparse coastal lowlands worldwide. It thereby allows to attribute different types of flood hazards, complements concepts of vulnerability and risk, and supports risk-informed decision making and development of effective multi-flooding adaptation strategies.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141585570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab6
Xinran Wu, Tracey Holloway, Paul Meier and Morgan Edwards
Fuel combustion for electricity generation emits a mix of health- and climate-relevant air emissions, with the potential for technology or fuel switching to impact multiple emissions together. While there has been extensive research on the co-benefits of climate policies on air quality improvements, few studies have quantified the effect of air pollution controls on carbon emissions. Here we evaluate three multi-pollutant emission reduction strategies, focused on sulfur dioxide (SO2) controls in the electricity sector. Traditional ‘add-on’ pollution controls like flue gas desulfurization (FGD) reduce SO2 emissions from coal combustion but increase emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide (CO2) due to heat efficiency loss. Fuel switching from coal to natural gas and renewables potentially reduces all pollutants. We identified 135 electricity generation units (EGUs) without SO2 controls in the contiguous US in 2017 and quantified the unit-level emission changes using pollution control efficiencies, emission rates, fuel heat input, and electricity load. A cost-benefit analysis is conducted, considering pollution control costs, fuel costs, capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, the monetized health benefits from avoided multi-pollutant, and the social cost of carbon as the benefit for carbon reduction. We find that add-on SO2 controls result in an average annual net benefit of $179.3 million (95% CI: $137.5-$221.0 million) per EGU, fuel switching from coal to natural gas, $432.7 million (95% CI: $366.4-$498.9 million) per EGU; and fuel switching from coal to renewable energy sources, $537.9 million (95% CI: $457.1-$618.9 million) per EGU. Our results highlight multi-pollutant emission reduction strategy as a cost-effective way to synergistically control air pollution and mitigate climate change.
{"title":"Characterizing multi-pollutant emission impacts of sulfur reduction strategies from coal power plants","authors":"Xinran Wu, Tracey Holloway, Paul Meier and Morgan Edwards","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab6","url":null,"abstract":"Fuel combustion for electricity generation emits a mix of health- and climate-relevant air emissions, with the potential for technology or fuel switching to impact multiple emissions together. While there has been extensive research on the co-benefits of climate policies on air quality improvements, few studies have quantified the effect of air pollution controls on carbon emissions. Here we evaluate three multi-pollutant emission reduction strategies, focused on sulfur dioxide (SO2) controls in the electricity sector. Traditional ‘add-on’ pollution controls like flue gas desulfurization (FGD) reduce SO2 emissions from coal combustion but increase emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide (CO2) due to heat efficiency loss. Fuel switching from coal to natural gas and renewables potentially reduces all pollutants. We identified 135 electricity generation units (EGUs) without SO2 controls in the contiguous US in 2017 and quantified the unit-level emission changes using pollution control efficiencies, emission rates, fuel heat input, and electricity load. A cost-benefit analysis is conducted, considering pollution control costs, fuel costs, capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, the monetized health benefits from avoided multi-pollutant, and the social cost of carbon as the benefit for carbon reduction. We find that add-on SO2 controls result in an average annual net benefit of $179.3 million (95% CI: $137.5-$221.0 million) per EGU, fuel switching from coal to natural gas, $432.7 million (95% CI: $366.4-$498.9 million) per EGU; and fuel switching from coal to renewable energy sources, $537.9 million (95% CI: $457.1-$618.9 million) per EGU. Our results highlight multi-pollutant emission reduction strategy as a cost-effective way to synergistically control air pollution and mitigate climate change.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141585569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-10DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ab
Candelaria Bergero, Marshall Wise, Patrick Lamers, Yong Wang and Maridee Weber
Limiting global warming to under 2 °C would require stringent mitigation and likely additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for otherwise unabated emissions. Because of its technology readiness, relatively low cost, and potential co-benefits, the application of biochar to soils could be an effective CDR strategy. We use the Global Change Analysis Model, a global multisector model, to analyze biochar deployment in the context of energy system uses of biomass with CDR under different carbon price trajectories. We find that biochar can create an annual sink of up to 2.8 GtCO2 per year, reducing global mean temperature increases by an additional 0.5%–1.8% across scenarios by 2100 for a given carbon price path. In our scenarios, biochar’s deployment is dependent on potential crop yield gains and application rates, and the competition for resources with other CDR measures. We find that biochar can serve as a competitive CDR strategy, especially at lower carbon prices when bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is not yet economical.
{"title":"Biochar as a carbon dioxide removal strategy in integrated long-run mitigation scenarios","authors":"Candelaria Bergero, Marshall Wise, Patrick Lamers, Yong Wang and Maridee Weber","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ab","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ab","url":null,"abstract":"Limiting global warming to under 2 °C would require stringent mitigation and likely additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for otherwise unabated emissions. Because of its technology readiness, relatively low cost, and potential co-benefits, the application of biochar to soils could be an effective CDR strategy. We use the Global Change Analysis Model, a global multisector model, to analyze biochar deployment in the context of energy system uses of biomass with CDR under different carbon price trajectories. We find that biochar can create an annual sink of up to 2.8 GtCO2 per year, reducing global mean temperature increases by an additional 0.5%–1.8% across scenarios by 2100 for a given carbon price path. In our scenarios, biochar’s deployment is dependent on potential crop yield gains and application rates, and the competition for resources with other CDR measures. We find that biochar can serve as a competitive CDR strategy, especially at lower carbon prices when bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is not yet economical.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141585568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab1
Andrew H MacDougall, Joeri Rogelj, Chris D Jones, Spencer K Liddicoat, Giacomo Grassi
The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO2. It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect (>95% change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO2 concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO2 concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO2 has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public.
{"title":"Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization","authors":"Andrew H MacDougall, Joeri Rogelj, Chris D Jones, Spencer K Liddicoat, Giacomo Grassi","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab1","url":null,"abstract":"The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO<sub>2</sub>. It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect (<inline-formula>\u0000<tex-math><?CDATA $ gt!95%$?></tex-math>\u0000<mml:math overflow=\"scroll\"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo><mml:mstyle scriptlevel=\"0\"></mml:mstyle><mml:mn>95</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">%</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math>\u0000<inline-graphic xlink:href=\"erlad5ab1ieqn1.gif\" xlink:type=\"simple\"></inline-graphic>\u0000</inline-formula> change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO<sub>2</sub> concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO<sub>2</sub> concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO<sub>2</sub> has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b06
J J van Blerk, J A Slingsby and A G West
Land surface phenology (LSP) can reveal important connections between vegetation dynamics and climate but remains poorly understood in evergreen winter-rainfall shrublands globally. Field-based studies have indicated diverse plant functional strategies in shrublands, but further work is required to link LSP to vegetation functional composition in these regions. We analysed time-series of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in fynbos shrublands of South Africa using multi-spectral imagery from satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). We investigated the climate drivers of seasonal vegetative phenology and long-term NDVI trends at multiple spatial scales ranging from the landscape to individual species. At coarse spatial resolutions, NDVI time-series indicated rainfall-driven vegetation dynamics in fynbos, both at inter and intra-annual time scales. However, high-resolution time-series from UAVs exposed an underlying divergence in vegetative phenology and long-term NDVI trends between shallow and deep-rooted growth forms. Phenophases and NDVI trends of isolated, deep-rooted, overstory shrubs were decoupled from rainfall relative to dense overstory patches and shallow-rooted understory growth forms. Variations in growth form phenology were not detected at coarse spatial scales due to scaling and competitive effects based on the functional composition of the vegetation.
{"title":"Unpacking satellite pixels: UAVs reveal fine-scale drivers of land surface phenology in a winter rainfall shrubland","authors":"J J van Blerk, J A Slingsby and A G West","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5b06","url":null,"abstract":"Land surface phenology (LSP) can reveal important connections between vegetation dynamics and climate but remains poorly understood in evergreen winter-rainfall shrublands globally. Field-based studies have indicated diverse plant functional strategies in shrublands, but further work is required to link LSP to vegetation functional composition in these regions. We analysed time-series of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in fynbos shrublands of South Africa using multi-spectral imagery from satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). We investigated the climate drivers of seasonal vegetative phenology and long-term NDVI trends at multiple spatial scales ranging from the landscape to individual species. At coarse spatial resolutions, NDVI time-series indicated rainfall-driven vegetation dynamics in fynbos, both at inter and intra-annual time scales. However, high-resolution time-series from UAVs exposed an underlying divergence in vegetative phenology and long-term NDVI trends between shallow and deep-rooted growth forms. Phenophases and NDVI trends of isolated, deep-rooted, overstory shrubs were decoupled from rainfall relative to dense overstory patches and shallow-rooted understory growth forms. Variations in growth form phenology were not detected at coarse spatial scales due to scaling and competitive effects based on the functional composition of the vegetation.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d09
Shouro Dasgupta, Elizabeth J Z Robinson
Climate change affects human health negatively in a number of complex ways, and children are particularly vulnerable. Quantifying the negative impacts of climate change on health, and identifying locations where children are at greater risk, can aid evidence-based policy making. We combine high-resolution climatic data with a dataset on infant and child mortality, wasting, and stunting, from more than a hundred countries, to estimate the effects of both gradual and acute climate change, focusing on drought and heatwaves, to plausibly attribute changing child health outcomes to historical climate change. Our results suggest a non-linear relationship between temperature and children’s health, adverse effects of increases in acute events, and a strong regional heterogeneity in these impacts. Our findings also highlight the importance of poverty reduction. Greater wealth is associated with better child health outcomes, and partially mitigates the negative impacts of climate change on child health. Finally, using updated warming scenarios, our projections show that there are substantial health co-benefits from achieving low emissions scenarios.
{"title":"Climate, weather, and child health: quantifying health co-benefits","authors":"Shouro Dasgupta, Elizabeth J Z Robinson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d09","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change affects human health negatively in a number of complex ways, and children are particularly vulnerable. Quantifying the negative impacts of climate change on health, and identifying locations where children are at greater risk, can aid evidence-based policy making. We combine high-resolution climatic data with a dataset on infant and child mortality, wasting, and stunting, from more than a hundred countries, to estimate the effects of both gradual and acute climate change, focusing on drought and heatwaves, to plausibly attribute changing child health outcomes to historical climate change. Our results suggest a non-linear relationship between temperature and children’s health, adverse effects of increases in acute events, and a strong regional heterogeneity in these impacts. Our findings also highlight the importance of poverty reduction. Greater wealth is associated with better child health outcomes, and partially mitigates the negative impacts of climate change on child health. Finally, using updated warming scenarios, our projections show that there are substantial health co-benefits from achieving low emissions scenarios.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d07
Anthony Y H Wong, Noelle E Selin, Sebastian D Eastham, Christine Mounaïm-Rousselle, Yiqi Zhang, Florian Allroggen
As carbon-free fuel, ammonia has been proposed as an alternative fuel to facilitate maritime decarbonization. Deployment of ammonia-powered ships is proposed as soon as 2024. However, NOx, NH3 and N2O from ammonia combustion could impact air quality and climate. In this study, we assess whether and under what conditions switching to ammonia fuel might affect climate and air quality. We use a bottom–up approach combining ammonia engine experiment results and ship track data to estimate global tailpipe NOx, NH3 and N2O emissions from ammonia-powered ships with two possible engine technologies (NH3–H2 (high NOx, low NH3 emissions) vs pure NH3 (low NOx, very high NH3 emissions) combustion) under three emission regulation scenarios (with corresponding assumptions in emission control technologies), and simulate their air quality impacts using GEOS–Chem high performance global chemical transport model. We find that the tailpipe N2O emissions from ammonia-powered ships have climate impacts equivalent to 5.8% of current shipping CO2 emissions. Globally, switching to NH3–H2 engines avoids 16 900 mortalities from PM2.5 and 16 200 mortalities from O3 annually, while the unburnt NH3 emissions (82.0 Tg NH3 yr−1) from pure NH3 engines could lead to 668 100 additional mortalities from PM2.5 annually under current legislation. Requiring NH3 scrubbing within current emission control areas leads to smaller improvements in PM2.5-related mortalities (22 100 avoided mortalities for NH3–H2 and 623 900 additional mortalities for pure NH3 annually), while extending both Tier III NOx standard and NH3 scrubbing requirements globally leads to larger improvement in PM2.5-related mortalities associated with a switch to ammonia-powered ships (66 500 avoided mortalities for NH3–H2 and 1200 additional mortalities for pure NH3 annually). Our findings suggest that while switching to ammonia fuel would reduce tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, stringent ammonia emission control is required to mitigate the potential adverse effects on air quality.
{"title":"Climate and air quality impact of using ammonia as an alternative shipping fuel","authors":"Anthony Y H Wong, Noelle E Selin, Sebastian D Eastham, Christine Mounaïm-Rousselle, Yiqi Zhang, Florian Allroggen","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d07","url":null,"abstract":"As carbon-free fuel, ammonia has been proposed as an alternative fuel to facilitate maritime decarbonization. Deployment of ammonia-powered ships is proposed as soon as 2024. However, NO<italic toggle=\"yes\">\u0000<sub>x</sub>\u0000</italic>, NH<sub>3</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O from ammonia combustion could impact air quality and climate. In this study, we assess whether and under what conditions switching to ammonia fuel might affect climate and air quality. We use a bottom–up approach combining ammonia engine experiment results and ship track data to estimate global tailpipe NO<italic toggle=\"yes\">\u0000<sub>x</sub>\u0000</italic>, NH<sub>3</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from ammonia-powered ships with two possible engine technologies (NH<sub>3</sub>–H<sub>2</sub> (high NO<italic toggle=\"yes\">\u0000<sub>x</sub>\u0000</italic>, low NH<sub>3</sub> emissions) vs pure NH<sub>3</sub> (low NO<italic toggle=\"yes\">\u0000<sub>x</sub>\u0000</italic>, very high NH<sub>3</sub> emissions) combustion) under three emission regulation scenarios (with corresponding assumptions in emission control technologies), and simulate their air quality impacts using GEOS–Chem high performance global chemical transport model. We find that the tailpipe N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from ammonia-powered ships have climate impacts equivalent to 5.8% of current shipping CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Globally, switching to NH<sub>3</sub>–H<sub>2</sub> engines avoids 16 900 mortalities from PM<sub>2.5</sub> and 16 200 mortalities from O<sub>3</sub> annually, while the unburnt NH<sub>3</sub> emissions (82.0 Tg NH<sub>3</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>) from pure NH<sub>3</sub> engines could lead to 668 100 additional mortalities from PM<sub>2.5</sub> annually under current legislation. Requiring NH<sub>3</sub> scrubbing within current emission control areas leads to smaller improvements in PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related mortalities (22 100 avoided mortalities for NH<sub>3</sub>–H<sub>2</sub> and 623 900 additional mortalities for pure NH<sub>3</sub> annually), while extending both Tier III NO<italic toggle=\"yes\">\u0000<sub>x</sub>\u0000</italic> standard and NH<sub>3</sub> scrubbing requirements globally leads to larger improvement in PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related mortalities associated with a switch to ammonia-powered ships (66 500 avoided mortalities for NH<sub>3</sub>–H<sub>2</sub> and 1200 additional mortalities for pure NH<sub>3</sub> annually). Our findings suggest that while switching to ammonia fuel would reduce tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, stringent ammonia emission control is required to mitigate the potential adverse effects on air quality.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5bf4
Xiaoying Kang, Zhaojie Yu, Lina Song, Christophe Colin, David J Wilson, Zehua Song, Bai Su, Xiaojie Tang, Fengming Chang, Franck Bassinot, Shiming Wan
The Indian Coastal Current is the only channel for material exchange between the two largest marginal seas in the northern Indian Ocean: the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. However, its past history is poorly known, limiting accurate predictions of its future changes. Here, we present a new clay mineral record from south of India supported by interpretations of model simulations to trace its variability over the last 18 000 years. Decreased smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios during the cold intervals suggest that a stronger northeasterly wind led to a mean southward flow of the Indian Coastal Current in the Bay of Bengal. In contrast, increased smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios during the warm intervals suggest the opposite scenario. Combining the proxy record with model simulations, we infer that atmospheric circulation changes were the main driver of the changes. Moreover, a possible link is observed between a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weakened southward flow of the Indian Coastal Current in the Bay of Bengal during the Holocene. These findings imply that future warming scenarios, if associated with more intense positive IOD events as proposed, may lead to a reduction in fresh water transport from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea.
{"title":"Wind-driven sediment exchange between the Indian marginal seas over the last 18 000 years","authors":"Xiaoying Kang, Zhaojie Yu, Lina Song, Christophe Colin, David J Wilson, Zehua Song, Bai Su, Xiaojie Tang, Fengming Chang, Franck Bassinot, Shiming Wan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5bf4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5bf4","url":null,"abstract":"The Indian Coastal Current is the only channel for material exchange between the two largest marginal seas in the northern Indian Ocean: the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. However, its past history is poorly known, limiting accurate predictions of its future changes. Here, we present a new clay mineral record from south of India supported by interpretations of model simulations to trace its variability over the last 18 000 years. Decreased smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios during the cold intervals suggest that a stronger northeasterly wind led to a mean southward flow of the Indian Coastal Current in the Bay of Bengal. In contrast, increased smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios during the warm intervals suggest the opposite scenario. Combining the proxy record with model simulations, we infer that atmospheric circulation changes were the main driver of the changes. Moreover, a possible link is observed between a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and weakened southward flow of the Indian Coastal Current in the Bay of Bengal during the Holocene. These findings imply that future warming scenarios, if associated with more intense positive IOD events as proposed, may lead to a reduction in fresh water transport from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b1
D Ó Fionnagáin, M Geever, J O’Farrell, P Codyre, R Trearty, Y M Tessema, L Reymondin, A M Loboguerrero, C Spillane, A Golden
Satellite remote sensing (RS) and machine learning can be combined to develop methods for measuring the impacts of climate change on biomass and agricultural systems. From 2015 to 2023, we applied this approach in a critical earth observation-based evaluation of the Irrigation and Water Resources Management component of the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s Senegal Compact. This project, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), was implemented in the Senegal River Valley from 2010 to 2015. Utilising these techniques, we successfully mapped rice cultivation areas, deciphered cropping practices, and analysed irrigation systems responses to different climatic conditions. A marked increase in cultivated rice area was found particularly in regions targeted by the project intervention. This is despite prolonged drought conditions which underscores a significant climate adaptation benefit from these irrigation works. We observed a notable dip in rice cultivation area in 2020, possibly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, likely aided by previously funded USAID’s socio-economic resilience programmes in the region. Economic analysis of increased rice yields in the region translates to approximately US$ 61.2 million in market value since 2015, highlighting the economic returns from the project investment. Both the RS data and ground audits identify issues regarding post-project deterioration of irrigation infrastructure, emphasising the need for long-term maintenance of irrigation infrastructure to support climate adaptation benefits arising from irrigation. With a focus on crop irrigation, our findings stress the critical role of climate adaptation interventions for maintaining agricultural productivity in the face of adverse climate shocks. It further highlights the necessity of continuous investment and maintenance for ensuring climate resilient agrifood systems.
{"title":"Assessing climate resilience in rice production: measuring the impact of the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s IWRM scheme in the Senegal River Valley using remote sensing and machine learning","authors":"D Ó Fionnagáin, M Geever, J O’Farrell, P Codyre, R Trearty, Y M Tessema, L Reymondin, A M Loboguerrero, C Spillane, A Golden","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b1","url":null,"abstract":"Satellite remote sensing (RS) and machine learning can be combined to develop methods for measuring the impacts of climate change on biomass and agricultural systems. From 2015 to 2023, we applied this approach in a critical earth observation-based evaluation of the Irrigation and Water Resources Management component of the Millennium Challenge Corporation’s Senegal Compact. This project, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), was implemented in the Senegal River Valley from 2010 to 2015. Utilising these techniques, we successfully mapped rice cultivation areas, deciphered cropping practices, and analysed irrigation systems responses to different climatic conditions. A marked increase in cultivated rice area was found particularly in regions targeted by the project intervention. This is despite prolonged drought conditions which underscores a significant climate adaptation benefit from these irrigation works. We observed a notable dip in rice cultivation area in 2020, possibly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, likely aided by previously funded USAID’s socio-economic resilience programmes in the region. Economic analysis of increased rice yields in the region translates to approximately US$ 61.2 million in market value since 2015, highlighting the economic returns from the project investment. Both the RS data and ground audits identify issues regarding post-project deterioration of irrigation infrastructure, emphasising the need for long-term maintenance of irrigation infrastructure to support climate adaptation benefits arising from irrigation. With a focus on crop irrigation, our findings stress the critical role of climate adaptation interventions for maintaining agricultural productivity in the face of adverse climate shocks. It further highlights the necessity of continuous investment and maintenance for ensuring climate resilient agrifood systems.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141576912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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