Forecasting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial because of its significant impact on regional and global climates. While traditional dynamic and empirical models suffer from systematic errors due to nonlinear processes, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are nonlinear in nature and have demonstrated remarkable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD forecasting skills based on oceanic predictors, particularly sea surface temperature and heat content. However, it is difficult to measure heat content and easily introduces uncertainties, prompting the need to explore atmospheric predictors for IOD forecasts. Based on sensitivity prediction experiments, we identified the sea level pressure (SLP) signal as a crucial predictor, which forecasts IOD at a 7 month lead. In addition, the CNN model improves monthly forecasting accuracy while reducing errors by 13.43%. Utilizing the heatmap analysis, we elucidated that the multi-seasonal predictability of the IOD primarily originates from mid-latitude climate variability. Besides ENSO signals in the Pacific Ocean, our study highlights the significant impact of remote climate forcing in the South Indian Ocean, tropical North Indian Ocean, and Northwest Pacific Ocean on IOD forecasts. By introducing the SLP precursor and extratropical zones into IOD forecasts, our study offers fresh insights into the underlying dynamics of IOD evolution.
{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forecasts based on convolutional neural network with sea level pressure precursor","authors":"Yuqi Tao, Chunhua Qiu, Dongxiao Wang, Mingting Li, Guangli Zhang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7522","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial because of its significant impact on regional and global climates. While traditional dynamic and empirical models suffer from systematic errors due to nonlinear processes, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are nonlinear in nature and have demonstrated remarkable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD forecasting skills based on oceanic predictors, particularly sea surface temperature and heat content. However, it is difficult to measure heat content and easily introduces uncertainties, prompting the need to explore atmospheric predictors for IOD forecasts. Based on sensitivity prediction experiments, we identified the sea level pressure (SLP) signal as a crucial predictor, which forecasts IOD at a 7 month lead. In addition, the CNN model improves monthly forecasting accuracy while reducing errors by 13.43%. Utilizing the heatmap analysis, we elucidated that the multi-seasonal predictability of the IOD primarily originates from mid-latitude climate variability. Besides ENSO signals in the Pacific Ocean, our study highlights the significant impact of remote climate forcing in the South Indian Ocean, tropical North Indian Ocean, and Northwest Pacific Ocean on IOD forecasts. By introducing the SLP precursor and extratropical zones into IOD forecasts, our study offers fresh insights into the underlying dynamics of IOD evolution.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"09 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad751e
Jianan Hu, Zhuotong Nan, Hailong Ji, Shuping Zhao, Minyue Ou
Climate warming poses complex challenges for alpine ecosystems on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), further exacerbated by permafrost degradation. Quantifying the specific ecological impacts of permafrost thaw remains elusive, as ecological variations are also influenced by external climate factors. This study tackles this gap by employing the Noah-MP model to simultaneously simulate permafrost thermal–hydrological dynamics and net primary production (NPP) across the Three River Headwaters Region from 1989 to 2018. Model results were validated against observations. To isolate the ecological effects of permafrost thaw, we implemented a novel relative time transformation on the simulation results. Our analysis reveals a 7.5 × 104 km2 reduction in permafrost coverage during the study period, coinciding with a 1.09 g C m−2 yr−2 increase in NPP. While precipitation is the primary driver of NPP changes in most years, soil moisture emerges as a crucial factor during permafrost disappearance, when the ground transitions to seasonally frozen ground. Surprisingly, the NPP response to permafrost disappearance exhibited a transient effect, diminishing to negligible levels within five years post-thaw. These findings enhance our understanding of the intricate and dynamic responses of the QTP ecosystem to permafrost degradation under a warming climate.
气候变暖给青藏高原（QTP）的高寒生态系统带来了复杂的挑战，而永久冻土的退化又进一步加剧了这一挑战。由于生态变化也受到外部气候因素的影响，量化永久冻土融化对生态的具体影响仍是一个难题。本研究采用 Noah-MP 模型，同时模拟了 1989 年至 2018 年三江源地区的冻土热-水文动态和净初级生产力（NPP），从而弥补了这一空白。模型结果与观测结果进行了验证。为了分离永久冻土融化对生态的影响，我们对模拟结果进行了新颖的相对时间转换。我们的分析表明，在研究期间，永久冻土覆盖面积减少了 7.5 × 104 平方公里，同时净生产力增加了 1.09 g C m-2 yr-2。在大多数年份，降水是净生产力变化的主要驱动因素，而在永久冻土消失期间，土壤湿度则成为关键因素，此时地面会过渡到季节性冰冻地面。令人惊讶的是，永久冻土消失时的净吸水能力反应表现出一种瞬时效应，在解冻后五年内减少到可以忽略不计的水平。这些发现加深了我们对气候变暖条件下 QTP 生态系统对冻土退化的复杂动态响应的理解。
{"title":"Effect of permafrost degradation on grassland net primary productivity in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau","authors":"Jianan Hu, Zhuotong Nan, Hailong Ji, Shuping Zhao, Minyue Ou","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad751e","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad751e","url":null,"abstract":"Climate warming poses complex challenges for alpine ecosystems on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), further exacerbated by permafrost degradation. Quantifying the specific ecological impacts of permafrost thaw remains elusive, as ecological variations are also influenced by external climate factors. This study tackles this gap by employing the Noah-MP model to simultaneously simulate permafrost thermal–hydrological dynamics and net primary production (NPP) across the Three River Headwaters Region from 1989 to 2018. Model results were validated against observations. To isolate the ecological effects of permafrost thaw, we implemented a novel relative time transformation on the simulation results. Our analysis reveals a 7.5 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> reduction in permafrost coverage during the study period, coinciding with a 1.09 g C m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−2</sup> increase in NPP. While precipitation is the primary driver of NPP changes in most years, soil moisture emerges as a crucial factor during permafrost disappearance, when the ground transitions to seasonally frozen ground. Surprisingly, the NPP response to permafrost disappearance exhibited a transient effect, diminishing to negligible levels within five years post-thaw. These findings enhance our understanding of the intricate and dynamic responses of the QTP ecosystem to permafrost degradation under a warming climate.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad73ea
Yu Gao, Bin Zhao, Neil Saintilan, Jiquan Chen, Wanben Wu, Li Wen, Feng Zhao, Tao Zhang, Zhi Geng, Gang Yang, Chao Song, Ping Zhuang
The dynamics of lateral nutrient fluxes through hydrological movements are crucial for understanding ecological functions related to the flow of energy, materials, and organisms across various spatiotemporal scales. To investigate the connectivity of multiple spatial flow processes, we conducted a one-year field study to measure lateral hydrologic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes across the continental shelf in the Yangtze estuary. We observed a significant correlation between the differences in remote sensing-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP) (ΔGPPMODIS) and the differences in eddy covariance (EC) tower-based GPP (ΔGPPEC) at both high-elevation and low-elevation sites. Our findings indicate that the saltmarsh acts as a net source of dissolved total C while serving as a net sink for dissolved total N. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation in the total dissolved stoichiometry of the C/N ratio between imports from and exports to adjacent aquatic systems. These findings highlight the importance of integrating ecological stoichiometric principles to improve our understanding of the complex relationships among physical, chemical, and ecological processes, particularly within the context of the meta-ecosystem framework. Additionally, when reciprocal hydrological lateral C and N flows are considered, a single ecosystem can function as both a source and sink within the meta-ecosystem framework.
通过水文运动的横向营养通量的动态变化对于理解与能量、物质和生物在不同时空尺度上的流动有关的生态功能至关重要。为了研究多种空间流动过程的连通性，我们开展了一项为期一年的野外研究，测量长江口大陆架横向水文碳（C）和氮（N）通量。我们观察到，在高海拔和低海拔地点，基于遥感估算的总初级生产力（GPP）差异（ΔGPPMODIS）与基于涡度协方差（EC）塔的总初级生产力差异（ΔGPPEC）之间存在明显的相关性。我们的研究结果表明，盐沼是溶解总 C 的净来源，同时也是溶解总 N 的净吸收汇。这些发现凸显了综合生态计量学原理的重要性，有助于我们更好地理解物理、化学和生态过程之间的复杂关系，尤其是在元生态系统框架下。此外，如果考虑到互惠的水文侧向碳流和氮流，在元生态系统框架内，单一生态系统既可以作为源，也可以作为汇。
{"title":"Rooting meta-ecosystems with reciprocal lateral carbon and nitrogen flows in a Yangtze coastal marsh","authors":"Yu Gao, Bin Zhao, Neil Saintilan, Jiquan Chen, Wanben Wu, Li Wen, Feng Zhao, Tao Zhang, Zhi Geng, Gang Yang, Chao Song, Ping Zhuang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad73ea","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad73ea","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of lateral nutrient fluxes through hydrological movements are crucial for understanding ecological functions related to the flow of energy, materials, and organisms across various spatiotemporal scales. To investigate the connectivity of multiple spatial flow processes, we conducted a one-year field study to measure lateral hydrologic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes across the continental shelf in the Yangtze estuary. We observed a significant correlation between the differences in remote sensing-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP) (ΔGPP<sub>MODIS</sub>) and the differences in eddy covariance (EC) tower-based GPP (ΔGPP<sub>EC</sub>) at both high-elevation and low-elevation sites. Our findings indicate that the saltmarsh acts as a net source of dissolved total C while serving as a net sink for dissolved total N. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation in the total dissolved stoichiometry of the C/N ratio between imports from and exports to adjacent aquatic systems. These findings highlight the importance of integrating ecological stoichiometric principles to improve our understanding of the complex relationships among physical, chemical, and ecological processes, particularly within the context of the meta-ecosystem framework. Additionally, when reciprocal hydrological lateral C and N flows are considered, a single ecosystem can function as both a source and sink within the meta-ecosystem framework.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb
Geanderson Ambrósio, Jonathan C Doelman, Aafke M Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren
Mitigating climate change (CC) and reversing biodiversity decline are urgent and interconnected global priorities. Strategies to address both crises must consider the relationships, synergies and trade-offs between key response measures, including sustainable production and consumption patterns, protected areas (PAs) and climate mitigation policy (CP). In this paper, we review a large set of scenarios (n = 96) from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) describing future development of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on CC and biodiversity. We calculate the global mean temperature increase (GMTI) and the Mean Species Abundance (MSA) of plants, a metric indicative of local terrestrial biodiversity intactness. The set includes scenarios with and without specific CP to address CC, PA for biodiversity and demand and supply sustainability measures such as increased energy efficiency and reduced meat consumption. Our findings indicate that scenarios with integrated measures can prevent biodiversity loss at the global scale, yet with clear regional differences. By 2050, 15 out of 30 (50%) scenarios with at least 30% of global land as PAs show positive MSA changes in grasslands and tropical non-forests (Grass & TnF), but only 1 (3%) does so in tropical forests (TF). We demonstrate that pasture and food/feed crops are the main drivers of MSA loss in Grass & TnF and that scenarios with high levels of PAs prevent land conversion and increase biodiversity. By 2100, 28 out of 46 (60%) scenarios with mitigation measures to restrict CC to 2 °C or less in 2100 result in positive MSA changes in TF, but only 13 (28%) do so in Grass & TnF, reflecting the larger impacts of land use change in the latter region. These results underscore the importance of time and regionally-tailored approaches to address the biodiversity and CC crises.
{"title":"Global sustainability scenarios lead to regionally different outcomes for terrestrial biodiversity","authors":"Geanderson Ambrósio, Jonathan C Doelman, Aafke M Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb","url":null,"abstract":"Mitigating climate change (CC) and reversing biodiversity decline are urgent and interconnected global priorities. Strategies to address both crises must consider the relationships, synergies and trade-offs between key response measures, including sustainable production and consumption patterns, protected areas (PAs) and climate mitigation policy (CP). In this paper, we review a large set of scenarios (<italic toggle=\"yes\">n</italic> = 96) from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) describing future development of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on CC and biodiversity. We calculate the global mean temperature increase (GMTI) and the Mean Species Abundance (MSA) of plants, a metric indicative of local terrestrial biodiversity intactness. The set includes scenarios with and without specific CP to address CC, PA for biodiversity and demand and supply sustainability measures such as increased energy efficiency and reduced meat consumption. Our findings indicate that scenarios with integrated measures can prevent biodiversity loss at the global scale, yet with clear regional differences. By 2050, 15 out of 30 (50%) scenarios with at least 30% of global land as PAs show positive MSA changes in grasslands and tropical non-forests (Grass & TnF), but only 1 (3%) does so in tropical forests (TF). We demonstrate that pasture and food/feed crops are the main drivers of MSA loss in Grass & TnF and that scenarios with high levels of PAs prevent land conversion and increase biodiversity. By 2100, 28 out of 46 (60%) scenarios with mitigation measures to restrict CC to 2 °C or less in 2100 result in positive MSA changes in TF, but only 13 (28%) do so in Grass & TnF, reflecting the larger impacts of land use change in the latter region. These results underscore the importance of time and regionally-tailored approaches to address the biodiversity and CC crises.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7475
Xiaomeng Wu, Yi Liu, Zongqi Yu, Jitong Jiang, Chunyan Wang, Bu Zhao
The Water-Energy Nexus (WEN) provides a comprehensive concept for the cooperative management of resources. Although the WEN system in cities is intricately connected to socioeconomic activities, relationship between WEN and economic systems remains understudied. This study introduces a tri-dimensional Nexus Pressure Index (NPI) to assess the pressure on WEN system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and city tiers in the urban agglomeration were used to assess the relationship between the characteristics of WEN and economic system. We conducted a case study of 296 cities in China and 1330 counties in the United States from 2012 to 2019. During the 9 year study period, on average, pressure on WEN system have relieved by 22% in China and 27% in the United States, measured by NPI. Cities with most ideal characteristics (low pressure in all dimensions) rank merely in the middle of all eight classes, with GDP per capita 74% and 85% of the highest-GDP-per-capita class in China and the US respectively. Well-performing WEN system does not yield best economic outcomes. High water pressure correlates with better economic performance in the US, while high-energy-pressure cities had GDP per capita about 50% and 70% of the class with highest GDP per capita in China and the US, respectively, suggesting stronger economic constraints from energy stress. Urban agglomeration analysis revealed a negative relationship between WEN and economic performance. NPI in emerging cities is 0.6–1 lower than NPI in regionally-central cities in China, while 0.2–0.5 lower in the US. These results underscore the contradiction between preferred WEN characteristics and higher economic performance, and underpin the resource curse hypothesis at city-level in the two considered giants. A sustainable approach to harmonize WEN and economic system is in urgent need.
{"title":"Assessing urban water-energy nexus characteristics in China and the US","authors":"Xiaomeng Wu, Yi Liu, Zongqi Yu, Jitong Jiang, Chunyan Wang, Bu Zhao","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7475","url":null,"abstract":"The Water-Energy Nexus (WEN) provides a comprehensive concept for the cooperative management of resources. Although the WEN system in cities is intricately connected to socioeconomic activities, relationship between WEN and economic systems remains understudied. This study introduces a tri-dimensional Nexus Pressure Index (NPI) to assess the pressure on WEN system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and city tiers in the urban agglomeration were used to assess the relationship between the characteristics of WEN and economic system. We conducted a case study of 296 cities in China and 1330 counties in the United States from 2012 to 2019. During the 9 year study period, on average, pressure on WEN system have relieved by 22% in China and 27% in the United States, measured by NPI. Cities with most ideal characteristics (low pressure in all dimensions) rank merely in the middle of all eight classes, with GDP per capita 74% and 85% of the highest-GDP-per-capita class in China and the US respectively. Well-performing WEN system does not yield best economic outcomes. High water pressure correlates with better economic performance in the US, while high-energy-pressure cities had GDP per capita about 50% and 70% of the class with highest GDP per capita in China and the US, respectively, suggesting stronger economic constraints from energy stress. Urban agglomeration analysis revealed a negative relationship between WEN and economic performance. NPI in emerging cities is 0.6–1 lower than NPI in regionally-central cities in China, while 0.2–0.5 lower in the US. These results underscore the contradiction between preferred WEN characteristics and higher economic performance, and underpin the resource curse hypothesis at city-level in the two considered giants. A sustainable approach to harmonize WEN and economic system is in urgent need.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad75aa
Mirjam van der Mheen, Charitha Pattiaratchi
Large amounts of plastic waste from non-local sources (>200 tonnes) wash up on Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands, two remote Indian Ocean islands, every year. Local communities on these islands organize beach clean-ups regularly to tackle this problem and, because their waste systems cannot handle the enormous amounts of plastic, predominantly incinerate the collected waste. However, as long as plastic waste keeps entering the ocean, beach clean-ups alone cannot be sustained. The first crucial step to solving this problem is to determine the main sources of plastic waste to the islands. In this study, we simulate the transport of floating plastic waste to determine the main riverine sources of plastic reaching the islands. We find that the majority of simulated plastic waste comes from just 4 Indonesian rivers: the Solo, Brantas, Ci Tanduy, and Wai Sekampung. We suggest that further numerical and field studies, as well as potential river clean-up efforts focus on these rivers to stop plastic waste inundating Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands.
{"title":"Plastic debris beaching on two remote Indian Ocean islands originates from handful of Indonesian rivers","authors":"Mirjam van der Mheen, Charitha Pattiaratchi","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad75aa","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad75aa","url":null,"abstract":"Large amounts of plastic waste from non-local sources (>200 tonnes) wash up on Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands, two remote Indian Ocean islands, every year. Local communities on these islands organize beach clean-ups regularly to tackle this problem and, because their waste systems cannot handle the enormous amounts of plastic, predominantly incinerate the collected waste. However, as long as plastic waste keeps entering the ocean, beach clean-ups alone cannot be sustained. The first crucial step to solving this problem is to determine the main sources of plastic waste to the islands. In this study, we simulate the transport of floating plastic waste to determine the main riverine sources of plastic reaching the islands. We find that the majority of simulated plastic waste comes from just 4 Indonesian rivers: the Solo, Brantas, Ci Tanduy, and Wai Sekampung. We suggest that further numerical and field studies, as well as potential river clean-up efforts focus on these rivers to stop plastic waste inundating Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7477
Kana Yamamoto, Tim DeVries, David A Siegel
Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO2 reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO2 reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO2 response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality (α) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO2 relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency (ϵ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, α is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO2 in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, α is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO2 equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean ϵ approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with ϵ approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while ϵ stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.
{"title":"Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO2 reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)","authors":"Kana Yamamoto, Tim DeVries, David A Siegel","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7477","url":null,"abstract":"Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality (<italic toggle=\"yes\">α</italic>) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency (<italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic>) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, <italic toggle=\"yes\">α</italic> is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO<sub>2</sub> in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, <italic toggle=\"yes\">α</italic> is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO<sub>2</sub> equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean <italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic> approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with <italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic> approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while <italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic> stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7478
Tarul Sharma, Giriraj Amarnath, Upali Amarasinghe and Abdulkarim Seid
Prolonged and recurrent droughts seriously threaten Africa’s food and water security. This threat frequently coexists with human-induced calamities, such as domestic and international conflicts and civil unrest, which could exacerbate the socio-economic instability already present in the region. Using a novel data-driven approach, we evaluated how drought risk in Africa affects the security of various crucial sectors of sustainable development, such as agriculture, water, and food nutrition/health (referred here as ‘nutritional’). Our findings show that different sectors and geographical areas exhibit distinct risk footprints. In Central African countries, for instance, we found that social instability linked to higher nutritional risk is more prevalent than that resulting from the agriculture and water sectors. Socio-economic volatility rather than uncertainty in the climate is the primary driver of this elevated nutritional risk. However, most Northern African countries are at risk of considerable agriculture and water insecurity because of extreme water stress and unstable climate trends. We indicate that the risk is majorly driven by recurrent drought events in Southern Africa, which significantly affect inclusive sectoral securities. The cause of higher risks in Eastern and Western Africa has been found to be an unfavorable interaction of all the risk components—vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. Notably, basic amenities, climate stability, and access to sustainable and renewable water sources are often missing from Africa’s sectoral risk hotspots. Our results emphasize the necessity of maximizing the efficacy of bottom-up initiatives to achieve sustainable food and water security, by integrating socio-economic policies and climate change at the granular level through observation.
{"title":"Footprints of drought risk on Africa’s agricultural, water and nutritional security","authors":"Tarul Sharma, Giriraj Amarnath, Upali Amarasinghe and Abdulkarim Seid","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7478","url":null,"abstract":"Prolonged and recurrent droughts seriously threaten Africa’s food and water security. This threat frequently coexists with human-induced calamities, such as domestic and international conflicts and civil unrest, which could exacerbate the socio-economic instability already present in the region. Using a novel data-driven approach, we evaluated how drought risk in Africa affects the security of various crucial sectors of sustainable development, such as agriculture, water, and food nutrition/health (referred here as ‘nutritional’). Our findings show that different sectors and geographical areas exhibit distinct risk footprints. In Central African countries, for instance, we found that social instability linked to higher nutritional risk is more prevalent than that resulting from the agriculture and water sectors. Socio-economic volatility rather than uncertainty in the climate is the primary driver of this elevated nutritional risk. However, most Northern African countries are at risk of considerable agriculture and water insecurity because of extreme water stress and unstable climate trends. We indicate that the risk is majorly driven by recurrent drought events in Southern Africa, which significantly affect inclusive sectoral securities. The cause of higher risks in Eastern and Western Africa has been found to be an unfavorable interaction of all the risk components—vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. Notably, basic amenities, climate stability, and access to sustainable and renewable water sources are often missing from Africa’s sectoral risk hotspots. Our results emphasize the necessity of maximizing the efficacy of bottom-up initiatives to achieve sustainable food and water security, by integrating socio-economic policies and climate change at the granular level through observation.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6916
Nanna Lauritz Schönhage, Theresa Wieland, Luna Bellani, Gabriele Spilker
Climate change and most climate policies affect and reinforce different forms of inequalities. For instance, climate change policies that aim to change consumer behavior by increasing the price tag of goods and services that cause carbon emissions often carry a disproportionately higher burden (in terms of financial cost) to those with lower incomes. They can thereby either exacerbate existing income inequalities or contribute to generating new ones. Meanwhile, refraining from engaging with climate mitigation policies will incur other detrimental societal costs: the financial burden and the harmful consequences of climate change that future generations will have to bear if nothing is done. In this paper, we examine how the immediate economic inequality citizens face from climate mitigation policies (regarding carbon taxation) weighs against the long-term generational inequalities future generations will experience. We study how both types of inequality relate to policy support for climate change mitigation policies in the context of Germany. The German case is of special interest because a recent court ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court allows us to test whether making people aware of a new legal reality can bridge the gap between the economic and generational inequality. Our findings using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among German citizens (N = 6,319) in 2022 show that immediate economic concerns trump future generational concerns, generally making citizens less supportive of the policy. This negative support is however somewhat mitigated by the supportive signal from the court ruling.
{"title":"Can the court bridge the gap? Public perception of economic vs. generational inequalities in climate change mitigation policies","authors":"Nanna Lauritz Schönhage, Theresa Wieland, Luna Bellani, Gabriele Spilker","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6916","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and most climate policies affect and reinforce different forms of inequalities. For instance, climate change policies that aim to change consumer behavior by increasing the price tag of goods and services that cause carbon emissions often carry a disproportionately higher burden (in terms of financial cost) to those with lower incomes. They can thereby either exacerbate existing income inequalities or contribute to generating new ones. Meanwhile, refraining from engaging with climate mitigation policies will incur other detrimental societal costs: the financial burden and the harmful consequences of climate change that future generations will have to bear if nothing is done. In this paper, we examine how the immediate economic inequality citizens face from climate mitigation policies (regarding carbon taxation) weighs against the long-term generational inequalities future generations will experience. We study how both types of inequality relate to policy support for climate change mitigation policies in the context of Germany. The German case is of special interest because a recent court ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court allows us to test whether making people aware of a new legal reality can bridge the gap between the economic and generational inequality. Our findings using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among German citizens (<italic toggle=\"yes\">N</italic> = 6,319) in 2022 show that immediate economic concerns trump future generational concerns, generally making citizens less supportive of the policy. This negative support is however somewhat mitigated by the supportive signal from the court ruling.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7616
Meihui Jiang and Wenlin Cai
To answer the question of whether the growth of digital inputs can be beneficial for carbon neutrality, we thoroughly explore the impacts of digital inputs on carbon emission reduction in this work. We propose a combined framework of panel regression model and multi-objective optimization model to identify the key digital sectors and obtain their optimal total outputs. First, the results show that digital inputs continue to increase in most countries (regions) from 2000 to 2021, especially in the USA, EU countries and China. Digital equipment inputs in China are the most significant, while digital service inputs in the USA and EU countries are relatively important. Second, the regression results show that digital service inputs have significantly negative influence on carbon emissions, which means that the growth of digital service inputs will decrease carbon emissions. This result indicates that the key point of industrial digitalization for carbon emission reduction may be increasing the digital service inputs. Third, the optimization results show that the digital-input-oriented optimization model, which encourages an increase in digital service inputs, could achieve greater targets of economic growth and carbon emission reduction. The total outputs of Telecommunication Services and Computer Services should increase globally by 10.24% and 8.89%, respectively.
{"title":"Digital input requirements for global carbon emission reduction","authors":"Meihui Jiang and Wenlin Cai","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7616","url":null,"abstract":"To answer the question of whether the growth of digital inputs can be beneficial for carbon neutrality, we thoroughly explore the impacts of digital inputs on carbon emission reduction in this work. We propose a combined framework of panel regression model and multi-objective optimization model to identify the key digital sectors and obtain their optimal total outputs. First, the results show that digital inputs continue to increase in most countries (regions) from 2000 to 2021, especially in the USA, EU countries and China. Digital equipment inputs in China are the most significant, while digital service inputs in the USA and EU countries are relatively important. Second, the regression results show that digital service inputs have significantly negative influence on carbon emissions, which means that the growth of digital service inputs will decrease carbon emissions. This result indicates that the key point of industrial digitalization for carbon emission reduction may be increasing the digital service inputs. Third, the optimization results show that the digital-input-oriented optimization model, which encourages an increase in digital service inputs, could achieve greater targets of economic growth and carbon emission reduction. The total outputs of Telecommunication Services and Computer Services should increase globally by 10.24% and 8.89%, respectively.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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