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Detailed height mapping of trees and buildings (HiTAB) in Chicago and its implications to urban climate studies 芝加哥树木和建筑物高度详图(HiTAB)及其对城市气候研究的影响
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad661a
Peiyuan Li and Ashish Sharma
The vertical dimensions of urban morphology, specifically the heights of trees and buildings, exert significant influence on wind flow fields in urban street canyons and the thermal environment of the urban fabric, subsequently affecting the microclimate, noise levels, and air quality. Despite their importance, these critical attributes are less commonly available and rarely utilized in urban climate models compared to planar land use and land cover data. In this study, we explicitly mapped the height of trees and buildings (HiTAB) across the city of Chicago at 1 m spatial resolution using a data fusion approach. This approach integrates high-precision light detection and ranging (LiDAR) cloud point data, building footprint inventory, and multi-band satellite images. Specifically, the digital terrain and surface models were first created from the LiDAR dataset to calculate the height of surface objects, while the rest of the datasets were used to delineate trees and buildings. We validated the derived height information against the existing building database in downtown Chicago and the Meter-scale Urban Land Cover map from the Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The co-investigation on trees and building heights offers a valuable initiative in the effort to inform urban land surface parameterizations using real-world data. Given their high spatial resolution, the height maps can be adopted in physical-based and data-driven urban models to achieve higher resolution and accuracy while lowering uncertainties. Moreover, our method can be extended to other urban regions, benefiting from the growing availability of high-resolution urban informatics globally. Collectively, these datasets can substantially contribute to future studies on hyper-local weather dynamics, urban heterogeneity, morphology, and planning, providing a more comprehensive understanding of urban environments.
城市形态的垂直维度,特别是树木和建筑物的高度,对城市街道峡谷中的风流场和城市结构的热环境有重大影响,进而影响小气候、噪音水平和空气质量。尽管这些属性非常重要,但与平面土地利用和土地覆盖数据相比,这些关键属性在城市气候模型中并不常见,也很少被利用。在这项研究中,我们采用数据融合方法,以 1 米的空间分辨率明确绘制了芝加哥市的树木和建筑物高度图(HiTAB)。这种方法整合了高精度光探测与测距(LiDAR)云点数据、建筑物足迹清单和多波段卫星图像。具体来说,首先利用激光雷达数据集创建数字地形和地表模型,计算地表物体的高度,然后利用其他数据集划分树木和建筑物。我们分别根据芝加哥市中心现有的建筑物数据库和环境保护局的米级城市土地覆盖图验证了得出的高度信息。对树木和建筑物高度的联合调查是利用真实世界数据为城市地表参数化提供信息的一项有价值的举措。由于高度图具有很高的空间分辨率,因此可用于基于物理和数据驱动的城市模型,以实现更高的分辨率和精度,同时降低不确定性。此外,我们的方法还可以扩展到其他城市地区,从而受益于全球范围内不断增长的高分辨率城市信息数据。总之,这些数据集可为未来超本地天气动力学、城市异质性、形态学和规划研究做出重大贡献,提供对城市环境更全面的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Concurrent extremes in mid-latitude Asia triggered by resonance of multi-scale zonal wind 多尺度带状风共振引发的亚洲中纬度地区并发极端事件
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6918
Yingxiao Sun, Qianrong Ma, Taichen Feng, Zhonghua Qian, Zhiwei Zhu, Chao Li and Guolin Feng
Climatic changes worsen concurrent extreme climate events. In July and August of 2022 and 2020, respectively, unexpected concurrent extreme events occurred in mid-latitude Asia. The sudden and severe consequences highlight the importance of a thorough understanding of the drivers of such extreme events, which is crucial for improving predictions and implementing preventive measures to mitigate future risks. By applying multi-scale window transform methodology, a unique mechanism of multi-scale zonal wind resonance is identified, which manifests as a quasi-stationary co-coupling with low-frequency zonal winds. This resonance leads to barotropic instability, triggering abnormal low-frequency Rossby wave behavior in the entrance and exit regions of the quasi-stationary jet stream. Simultaneously, the intensified meridional wind, coupled with adiabatic atmospheric warming, amplifies baroclinic instability, resulting in an enhanced wave pattern and the high concurrence events of 2022. Under long term future global warming levels of 4 °C, the concurrence, strengthened by multi-scale zonal wind resonance, is expected to persist. The mechanism evident in 2022 plays a broader and more significant role in concurrent events compared to the mechanism in 2020. Under the process of warming, resonance phenomena, as observed in 2022, are projected to become more frequent.
气候变化加剧了同时发生的极端气候事件。2022 年 7 月和 2020 年 8 月,亚洲中纬度地区分别发生了意想不到的同期极端事件。突如其来的严重后果凸显了全面了解此类极端事件驱动因素的重要性,这对于改进预测和实施预防措施以降低未来风险至关重要。通过应用多尺度窗口变换方法,确定了多尺度带状风共振的独特机制,表现为与低频带状风的准静止共耦。这种共振导致了气压不稳定性,在准静止喷流的入口和出口区域引发了异常的低频罗斯比波行为。同时,增强的经向风加上大气绝热变暖,扩大了气压不稳定性,导致波型增强和 2022 年的高并发事件。在未来全球长期升温 4 ℃ 的情况下,多尺度带状风共振加强的并发现象预计将持续存在。与 2020 年的机制相比,2022 年的机制在并发事件中发挥了更广泛、更重要的作用。在气候变暖过程中,预计 2022 年观测到的共振现象将更加频繁。
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引用次数: 0
Cooperative food bank: a collective insurance regime to govern food insecurity and nitrogen pollution under risk 合作粮食银行:风险下治理粮食不安全和氮污染的集体保险制度
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f44
Wenying Liao, Vítor V Vasconcelos, Simon A Levin and Michael Oppenheimer
Risks, such as climate change, disease outbreak, geopolitical tension, may exacerbate food insecurity by negatively impacting crop yield. Additional agricultural nitrogen input may partly offset yield losses, with a corresponding increase in nitrogen pollution. The problems of food insecurity and nitrogen pollution are urgent and global but have not been addressed in an integrated fashion. Current efforts to combat food insecurity occur primarily through the United Nations’ World Food Program at the international level, and, at the local community level, through food banks. The international program to monitor and reduce global nitrogen pollution is in its early stage. Food provision and nitrogen pollution reduction from agriculture presents a dual challenge that requires an integrated solution. Here, we propose a cooperative food bank, where membership is a matter of choice and is not coerced. Membership requires participants to reduce nitrogen pollution in agriculture but creates a risk-buffering system, providing food compensation when participants are affected by risk factors. We delineate the structure of the cooperative food bank, its operation, from the short-term mobilization of resources to long-term capacity building. Lastly, we assess the feasibility of its implementation and highlight the potential major roadblocks to its implementation within the current socio-political context. The cooperative food bank showcases a novel solution that simultaneously tackles food insecurity and nitrogen pollution via governance. We hope this proposal will stimulate a research agenda and policy discussions focused on integrated approaches to effective governance regimes for linked socio-environmental problems.
气候变化、疾病爆发、地缘政治紧张局势等风险可能会对作物产量产生负面影响,从而加剧粮食不安全状况。额外的农业氮投入可能会部分抵消产量损失,但氮污染也会相应增加。粮食不安全和氮污染问题是紧迫的全球性问题,但尚未以综合方式加以解决。目前,应对粮食不安全问题的工作主要是在国际层面通过联合国世界粮食计划署开展,在地方社区层面则通过粮食银行进行。监测和减少全球氮污染的国际计划尚处于早期阶段。提供粮食和减少农业氮污染是一个双重挑战,需要综合的解决方案。在此,我们提议建立一个合作性的粮食银行,加入该银行是一种选择,而不是强迫。成员资格要求参与者减少农业中的氮污染,但同时也创建了一个风险缓冲系统,在参与者受到风险因素影响时提供食物补偿。我们描述了合作食物银行的结构及其运作,从短期的资源调动到长期的能力建设。最后,我们对其实施的可行性进行了评估,并强调了在当前社会政治背景下实施的潜在主要障碍。合作食物银行展示了一种新颖的解决方案,通过治理同时解决粮食不安全和氮污染问题。我们希望这项建议能够推动研究议程和政策讨论,重点关注针对相关社会环境问题的有效治理制度的综合方法。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of future scenarios on the nitrogen loss from agricultural supply chains in the Chesapeake Bay 未来情景对切萨皮克湾农业供应链氮流失的影响
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d0b
Michael Gomez, Caitlin Grady, Lisa Wainger, Raj Cibin, David Abler, Darrell Bosch, Jason Kaye
Excessive nitrogen (N) pollution in the Chesapeake Bay is threatening ecological health. This study presents a multilayer N flow network model where each network layer represents a stage in the production step from raw agricultural commodities such as corn to final products such as packaged meat. We use this model to assess the impacts of alternative future agricultural production and land use changes on multiple pathways of N pollution within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). We analyzed N loss via all pathways under multiple future scenarios, considering crop-specific projections based on empirical data and US Department of Agriculture projections. We found two model parameters, fertilizer nitrogen application rate (FNAR) and feed conversion ratio (FCR), to be particularly important for seeing measurable N loss reductions in the Bay. Our results indicate a large increase in N loss under the business-as-usual trajectory in geographic locations with intensive agricultural production. We found that numerous management scenarios including improvements in FNAR and FCR, N losses fall short of the 25% total maximum daily load targets. Our work suggests that achieving the CBW N loss reduction goals will necessitate large deviations from business as usual. Our model also highlights substantial regional variations in nitrogen loss across the U.S., with central regions like the Corn Belt and Central Valley of California experiencing the highest losses from crop-related stages, while eastern areas such as the Chesapeake Bay exhibit major losses from live animal production, underscoring the need for region-specific management strategies. Thus, implementation of effective N management strategies, combined with improved crop residue management, remains pivotal in mitigating N pollution in the Chesapeake Bay.
切萨皮克湾过量的氮(N)污染正威胁着生态健康。本研究提出了一个多层氮流网络模型,其中每个网络层代表从玉米等原料农产品到包装肉类等最终产品的生产步骤中的一个阶段。我们利用该模型评估了切萨皮克湾流域(CBW)内替代性未来农业生产和土地利用变化对多种氮污染途径的影响。我们根据经验数据和美国农业部的预测,分析了在多种未来情景下通过所有途径造成的氮损失。我们发现,化肥氮施用率(FNAR)和饲料转化率(FCR)这两个模型参数对于减少海湾的氮损失尤为重要。我们的研究结果表明,在 "一切照旧 "的轨迹下,密集农业生产地区的氮损失将大幅增加。我们发现,在许多管理方案中,包括改善 FNAR 和 FCR,氮损失都没有达到 25% 的最大日负荷总量目标。我们的研究表明,要实现减少 CBW 氮损失的目标,就必须在 "一切照旧 "的基础上做出巨大改变。我们的模型还凸显了美国氮损失的巨大区域差异,中部地区(如玉米带和加利福尼亚中央山谷)因农作物相关阶段而造成的损失最大,而东部地区(如切萨皮克湾)则因活体动物生产而造成重大损失,这突出表明需要制定针对特定区域的管理策略。因此,实施有效的氮管理策略,同时改进作物残留物管理,仍然是减轻切萨皮克湾氮污染的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona 抗热计划评估:亚利桑那州坦佩市和图森市全面评估供热规划的补充方法
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d05
Sara Meerow, Ladd Keith, Malini Roy, Shaylynn Trego
Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.
气候变化和城市高温造成的影响日益加剧,使社区更加迫切需要公平地制定防暑降温规划。西南沙漠地区的城市是美国最热和变暖速度最快的地区之一,因此它们处于防暑规划的最前沿。城市的抗热能力需要采用综合规划方法,在形成建筑环境和风险模式的规划网络中协调战略。迄今为止,很少有研究对城市供热规划的进展情况进行评估。本研究首次将两种新兴的规划评估方法结合起来,通过对亚利桑那州坦佩市和图森市的案例研究,考察规划网络如何塑造城市抗热能力。第一种方法是 "抗热规划质量评估",它将现有的规划质量评估方法应用于抗热规划。我们对规划是否符合高质量规划的七项原则中的 56 项标准以及规划中包含的供热战略类型进行评估。第二种方法是 "抗热规划整合记分卡™"(PIRS™),重点关注可能影响城市热危害的规划政策。我们按照政策工具和热量缓解策略对政策进行分类,并根据其对热量的影响进行评分。然后对已评分的政策进行映射,以评估其空间分布和规划网络的净效应。得出的 PIRS™ for Heat 计分卡与热脆弱性指标进行比较,以评估政策与风险的一致性。我们发现,这两个城市都在使用类似的计划和战略类型积极规划抗热能力,但也存在明显且一致的改进机会。将这些互补的计划评估方法结合起来,可以更全面地了解计划如何解决高温问题,并提供一种可推广的方法,各地社区可利用这种方法确定改进抗高温规划的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Asynchrony of the seasonal dynamics of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration 总初级生产力和生态系统呼吸的季节动态不同步
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d08
Linqing Yang, Asko Noormets
The phenological cycles of terrestrial ecosystems have shifted with the changing climate, and the altered timings of biogeochemical fluxes may also exert feedback on the climate system. As regulators of land carbon balance, relative shifts in photosynthetic and respiratory phenology under climate change are of great importance. However, the relative seasonal dynamics of these individual processes and their sensitivity to climate factors as well as the implications for carbon cycling are not well understood. In this study, we examined the relationship in the seasonality of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) as well as their temperature sensitivities and the implications for carbon uptake with around 1500 site-years’ of data from FLUXNET 2015 and Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) at 212 sites. The results showed that RE started earlier in the spring and ended later in the autumn than GPP over most biomes. Furthermore, the flux phenology metrics responded differently to temperature: GPP phenology was more sensitive to changes during the spring temperature than RE phenology, and less sensitive to autumn temperature than RE. We found large BEPS-observation discrepancies in seasonality metrics and their apparent temperature sensitivity. The site-based BEPS projections did not capture the observed seasonal metrics and temperature sensitivities in either GPP or RE seasonality metrics. Improved understanding of the asynchrony of GPP and RE as well as different sensitivity of environmental factors are of great significance for reliable future carbon balance projections.
陆地生态系统的物候周期随着气候的变化而变化,生物地球化学通量时间的改变也可能对气候系统产生反馈作用。作为陆地碳平衡的调节器,气候变化下光合作用和呼吸作用物候的相对变化非常重要。然而,人们对这些单个过程的相对季节动态及其对气候因素的敏感性以及对碳循环的影响还不甚了解。在这项研究中,我们利用 FLUXNET 2015 和北方生态系统生产力模拟器(BEPS)在 212 个地点的约 1500 个地点年的数据,研究了总初级生产量(GPP)和生态系统呼吸作用(RE)的季节性关系及其对温度的敏感性以及对碳吸收的影响。结果表明,在大多数生物群落中,RE 比 GPP 更早开始于春季,更晚结束于秋季。此外,通量物候指标对温度的反应也不同:与 RE 表观相比,GPP 表观对春季温度变化更为敏感,而对秋季温度的敏感性则低于 RE。我们发现,在季节性指标及其明显的温度敏感性方面,BEPS 与观测结果之间存在巨大差异。基于站点的 BEPS 预测并没有捕捉到观测到的 GPP 或 RE 季节性指标中的季节性指标和温度敏感性。更好地理解 GPP 和 RE 的非同步性以及环境因素的不同敏感性对于可靠的未来碳平衡预测具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the nonlinearity of wintertime PM2.5 formation in response to precursor emission changes in North China with the adjoint method 用邻接法评估华北地区冬季 PM2.5 形成对前体排放变化的非线性响应
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad60df
Ni Lu, Lin Zhang, Xiaolin Wang, Zehui Liu, Danyang Li, Jiayu Xu, Haiyue Tan, Mi Zhou, Daven K Henze
While China’s clean air actions implemented since 2013 have been effective in mitigating PM2.5 air pollution, the large emission reductions during the COVID-19 lockdown period in early 2020 did not similarly alleviate PM2.5 pollution in North China, reflecting a distinct nonlinear chemical response of PM2.5 formation to emission changes. Here we apply emission-concentration relationships for PM2.5 diagnosed using the adjoint approach to quantitatively assess how chemical nonlinearity affects PM2.5 over Beijing in February 2020 in response to two emission reduction scenarios: the COVID-19 lockdown and 2013–2017 emission controls. We find that, in the absence of chemical nonlinearity, the COVID-19 lockdown would decrease PM2.5 in Beijing by 17.9 μg m–3, and the 2013–2017 emission controls resulted in a larger decrease of 54.2 μg m–3 because of greater reductions of SO2 and primary aerosol emissions. Chemical nonlinearity offset the decrease for Beijing PM2.5 by 3.4 μg m–3 during the lockdown due to enhanced sensitivity of aerosol nitrate to NOx emissions, but enhanced the efficiency of 2013–2017 emission controls by 11.9 μg m–3 due to the weakened heterogeneous reaction of sulfate. Such nonlinear chemical effects are important to estimate and consider when designing or assessing air pollution control strategies.
虽然中国自 2013 年以来实施的清洁空气行动有效地缓解了 PM2.5 空气污染,但 2020 年初 COVID-19 锁定期间的大幅减排并未同样缓解华北地区的 PM2.5 污染,这反映出 PM2.5 的形成对排放变化具有明显的非线性化学反应。在此,我们采用邻接法诊断 PM2.5 的排放-浓度关系,定量评估化学非线性如何影响 2020 年 2 月北京上空的 PM2.5,以应对两种减排方案:COVID-19 封闭和 2013-2017 年排放控制。我们发现,在不存在化学非线性的情况下,COVID-19锁定将使北京的PM2.5减少17.9微克/立方米,而2013-2017年排放控制由于二氧化硫和一次气溶胶排放的减少量更大,因此PM2.5的减少量更大,达到54.2微克/立方米。由于气溶胶硝酸盐对氮氧化物排放的敏感性增强,化学非线性抵消了北京PM2.5在封锁期间减少的3.4微克/立方米,但由于硫酸盐的异质反应减弱,2013-2017年排放控制的效率提高了11.9微克/立方米。在设计或评估空气污染控制策略时,必须估计和考虑这种非线性化学效应。
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引用次数: 0
Moderate nitrogen enrichment increases CO2 sink strength in a coastal wetland 适度富氮可增加沿海湿地的二氧化碳吸收汇强度
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad64e9
Wendi Qu, Guangxuan Han, Josep Penuelas, Xiaoyue Wang and Baohua Xie
Coastal wetlands remarkably influence terrestrial carbon (C) stock by serving as natural reservoirs for ‘blue carbon’. Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enrichment shapes the dynamics of soil and plant communities, consequently affecting the C balance and ecosystem functions. The impacts of various levels of N enrichment on CO2 sequestration in coastal wetlands, however, remain elusive. Here we conducted a long-term field study of N fertilization in a coastal wetland in the Yellow River Delta, China, to investigate N effects on soil properties, indicators of plant dynamics, and fluxes of ecosystem CO2. The results indicated that moderate N enrichment (5 g N m−2 y−1) stimulated C fluxes with increases in gross primary productivity (+26.4%), ecosystem respiration (+23.3%), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE, +31.5%) relative to the control. High (10 g N m−2 y−1) and extreme (20 g N m−2 y−1) amounts of N enrichment, however, had relatively minor impacts on these CO2 fluxes. Overall, we observed a decrease in soil electrical conductivity (−24.6%) and increases in soil organic C (+25.2%) and microbial biomass C (+369.3%) for N enrichment. N enrichment also altered the composition of plant species, with a higher proportion of a local dominant species (Phragmites australis), and affected root biomass distribution, with more biomass near the soil surface. Structural equation modeling explained 65.2% of the variance of NEE and supported the assumption that N enrichment could alter the dynamics of soil properties and plant conditions and accelerate ecosystem CO2 sequestration. These findings have important implications for forecasting the C cycle with increasing N deposition in coastal wetlands, contributing to the projections of the global C budget.
沿海湿地是天然的 "蓝碳库",对陆地碳(C)存量有着显著影响。人为的氮(N)富集会影响土壤和植物群落的动态,从而影响碳平衡和生态系统功能。然而,不同程度的氮富集对沿海湿地二氧化碳封存的影响仍然难以捉摸。在此,我们对中国黄河三角洲的滨海湿地进行了长期的氮肥施用实地研究,探讨氮肥对土壤性质、植物动态指标和生态系统二氧化碳通量的影响。结果表明,与对照组相比,中等氮肥浓度(5 g N m-2 y-1)刺激了碳通量,总初级生产力(+26.4%)、生态系统呼吸作用(+23.3%)和生态系统净交换量(NEE,+31.5%)均有所增加。然而,高浓度(10 g N m-2 y-1)和极高浓度(20 g N m-2 y-1)的氮对这些二氧化碳通量的影响相对较小。总体而言,我们观察到土壤电导率下降(-24.6%),土壤有机碳(+25.2%)和微生物生物量碳(+369.3%)增加。氮富集还改变了植物物种的组成,当地优势物种(Phragmites australis)的比例增加,并影响了根部生物量的分布,土壤表面附近的生物量增加。结构方程模型解释了 65.2% 的 NEE 方差,支持了氮富集可改变土壤性质和植物状况的动态变化并加速生态系统二氧化碳固存的假设。这些发现对预测沿海湿地氮沉积增加时的碳循环具有重要意义,有助于预测全球碳预算。
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引用次数: 0
Using policy scenarios to assess challenges and opportunities for reaching restoration targets in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest 利用政策情景评估实现巴西大西洋森林恢复目标的挑战和机遇
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab2
Yara Shennan-Farpón, Aline C Soterroni, Marluce Scarabello and Piero Visconti
Brazil’s Atlantic Forest is a global restoration hotspot. Most of the remaining forest areas are degraded and separated by large cities, and agricultural lands essential for national food security. Brazil’s restoration agenda is defined by multiple national and global restoration targets and policies, including Brazil’s Native Vegetation Protection Law (No. 12,651/2012) also known as the Forest Code, which sets minimum levels of native vegetation to be maintained or restored in rural properties. In this study we simulate the impacts of alternative restoration policies addressing targets for Brazil, and explore their impacts on selected terrestrial species and agricultural development potential in the Atlantic Forest biome. Our results show several policy options could result in different restoration amounts and spatial distributions being implemented between 2020 and 2050, but trade-offs between agriculture, biodiversity and rural livelihoods differ. Compared to the baseline scenario (implementation of the Forest Code), a scenario which focuses restoration on small farms (not mandated to undergo restoration under the current legislation) could increase forest area by 6.7 Mha across the biome (139% more than with the Forest Code), while a scenario which maximizes biodiversity gains could lead to an additional 3.9 Mha by 2050 (81% more compared to the Forest Code). We find that our restoration scenarios still allow cropland expansion and an increase in cattle herd, while pasturelands decrease. There are relatively small agricultural production losses under the alternative restoration scenarios when compared to the baseline (up to 14.4%), meaning that cattle ranching intensification is critical to enable large-scale restoration to co-exist with agricultural production. Our scenarios suggest that ambitious restoration targets in the Atlantic Forest biome (up to 15.5 Mha, consistent with existing regional initiatives) could be feasible with necessary improvements in pasture yield and a focus on scaling up support and developing restoration policies for smallholder farmers.
巴西的大西洋森林是全球的恢复热点。大部分剩余林区已经退化,被大城市和对国家粮食安全至关重要的农田分隔开来。巴西的恢复议程由多个国家和全球恢复目标及政策确定,其中包括巴西的《原生植被保护法》(第 12651/2012 号),又称《森林法》,该法规定了农村地区应保持或恢复的原生植被的最低水平。在这项研究中,我们模拟了针对巴西目标的其他恢复政策的影响,并探讨了这些政策对大西洋森林生物群落中选定陆生物种和农业发展潜力的影响。我们的研究结果表明,在 2020 年至 2050 年期间,几种政策选择可能会导致不同的恢复量和空间分布,但农业、生物多样性和农村生计之间的权衡有所不同。与基线方案(实施《森林法》)相比,将恢复重点放在小农场(现行法律未规定必须进行恢复)的方案可使整个生物群落的森林面积增加 670 万公顷(比《森林法》增加 139%),而将生物多样性收益最大化的方案可使森林面积到 2050 年增加 390 万公顷(比《森林法》增加 81%)。我们发现,我们的恢复方案仍然允许耕地扩大和牛群增加,而牧场减少。与基线相比,其他恢复方案下的农业生产损失相对较小(最多为 14.4%),这意味着,要使大规模恢复与农业生产共存,牧场集约化至关重要。我们的设想方案表明,大西洋森林生物群落雄心勃勃的恢复目标(最多 1,550 万公顷,与现有的区域倡议一致)是可行的,但必须提高牧草产量,并重点扩大支持范围,为小农户制定恢复政策。
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引用次数: 0
Toward a satellite-based monitoring system for urban CO2 emissions in support of global collective climate mitigation actions 建立城市二氧化碳排放卫星监测系统,支持全球集体气候减缓行动
IF 6.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6017
Taylor Y Wilmot, John C Lin, Dien Wu, Tomohiro Oda and Eric A Kort
Over the past decade, 1000s of cities have pledged reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. However, tracking progress toward these pledges has largely relied exclusively on activity-based, self-reported emissions inventories, which often underestimate emissions due to incomplete accounting. Furthermore, the lack of a consistent framework that may be deployed broadly, across political boundaries, hampers understanding of changes in both city-scale emissions and the global summation of urban emissions mitigation actions, with insight being particularly limited for cities within the global south. Given the pressing need for rapid decarbonization, development of a consistent framework that tracks progress toward city-scale emissions reduction targets, while providing actionable information for policy makers, will be critical. Here, we combine satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and an atmospheric model to present an atmospherically-based framework for monitoring changes in urban emissions and related intensity metrics. Application of this framework to 77 cities captures ∼16% of global carbon dioxide emissions, similar in magnitude to the total direct emissions of the United States or Europe, and demonstrates the framework’s ability to track changes in emissions via satellite-observation. COVID-19 lockdowns correspond to an average ∼21% reduction in emissions across urban systems over March–May of 2020 relative to non-lockdown years. Urban scaling analyses suggest that per capita energy savings drive decreases in emissions per capita as population density increases, while local affluence and economic development correspond to increasing emissions. Results highlight the potential for a global atmospherically-based monitoring framework to complement activity-based inventories and provide actionable information regarding interactions between city-scale emissions and local policy actions.
在过去十年中,已有 1000 多个城市承诺减少二氧化碳排放量。然而,跟踪这些承诺的进展情况在很大程度上完全依赖于基于活动的自我报告排放清单,而这种清单往往由于核算不完整而低估了排放量。此外,由于缺乏一个可跨越政治边界广泛使用的一致框架,城市规模排放的变化和全球城市排放减缓行动的总和都难以理解,对全球南部城市的洞察力尤其有限。鉴于快速去碳化的迫切需求,开发一个可跟踪城市规模减排目标进展的一致框架,同时为政策制定者提供可操作的信息,将是至关重要的。在这里,我们将基于卫星的大气二氧化碳观测数据与大气模型相结合,提出了一个基于大气的框架,用于监测城市排放的变化和相关强度指标。将该框架应用于 77 个城市,可捕捉到全球二氧化碳排放量的 16%,与美国或欧洲的直接排放总量相近,并展示了该框架通过卫星观测跟踪排放变化的能力。COVID-19 的锁定相当于整个城市系统在 2020 年 3-5 月期间相对于非锁定年平均减少 21%的排放量。城市规模分析表明,随着人口密度的增加,人均能源节约推动了人均排放量的减少,而地方富裕和经济发展则对应着排放量的增加。研究结果凸显了基于大气的全球监测框架的潜力,它可以补充基于活动的清单,并提供有关城市规模排放与地方政策行动之间相互作用的可行信息。
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental Research Letters
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