Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad585a
Luke J Harrington, Suzanne M Rosier, Tom I Marsh and Dave J Frame
Understanding how the statistical properties of daily rainfall will respond to a warming climate requires ensembles of climate model data which are much larger than those typically available from existing centennial-scale modelling experiments. While such centennial-scale experiments are very useful to explore scenario uncertainty in twenty-first century climate, ensemble size constraints often result in regional climate change assessments restricting their focus to annual- or season-mean rainfall projections without providing robust information about changes to the most extreme events. Here, we make use of multi-thousand member ensembles of regional climate model output from the Weather@Home project to explicitly resolve how the wettest and driest days of the year over New Zealand will respond to simulations of a 3 °C world, relative to simulations of the climate of the recent past (2006–15). Using a novel framework to disentangle changes during the wettest and driest days of the year, we show that many regions which show negligible change in annual mean rainfall are in fact experiencing significant changes in the amount of rain falling during both the wettest and driest spells. Exploring these changes through the lens of drought risk, we find many agricultural regions in New Zealand will face significant changes in the frequency of low-rainfall extremes in a warmer world.
{"title":"Robust changes to the wettest and driest days of the year are hidden within annual rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study","authors":"Luke J Harrington, Suzanne M Rosier, Tom I Marsh and Dave J Frame","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad585a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad585a","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how the statistical properties of daily rainfall will respond to a warming climate requires ensembles of climate model data which are much larger than those typically available from existing centennial-scale modelling experiments. While such centennial-scale experiments are very useful to explore scenario uncertainty in twenty-first century climate, ensemble size constraints often result in regional climate change assessments restricting their focus to annual- or season-mean rainfall projections without providing robust information about changes to the most extreme events. Here, we make use of multi-thousand member ensembles of regional climate model output from the Weather@Home project to explicitly resolve how the wettest and driest days of the year over New Zealand will respond to simulations of a 3 °C world, relative to simulations of the climate of the recent past (2006–15). Using a novel framework to disentangle changes during the wettest and driest days of the year, we show that many regions which show negligible change in annual mean rainfall are in fact experiencing significant changes in the amount of rain falling during both the wettest and driest spells. Exploring these changes through the lens of drought risk, we find many agricultural regions in New Zealand will face significant changes in the frequency of low-rainfall extremes in a warmer world.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141511076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad58f9
Olivia G VanBuskirk and Lauren E Mullenbach
As cities continue to prepare for climate change by developing adaptation plans, previous research has examined the content, creation, and considerations of equity and justice in these plans, particularly across United States cities. Climate adaptation activities create the potential for undue harm on marginalized populations, therefore it is important to understand the state of knowledge on equitable climate adaptation as cities begin implementing their plans. We conducted a scoping review of 15 journal articles on equitable adaptation in United States cities to document theoretical frameworks used and major findings. Studies included in our sample primarily used three different theoretical frameworks, including environmental justice theory, neoliberal urban governance, or just sustainabilities, to analyze how plans were created and their contents. Studies we analyzed indicate that cities were successful at identifying problems or challenges but struggled with articulating how to best engage residents and community members or to grapple with systemic issues. We also developed best practices for adaptation based on recommendations from the studies: have clear implementation guidelines, invest in frontline communities, regulate the private sector, work with community-based organizations, and develop regional planning initiatives. Overall, the state of knowledge is such that cities have taken the first step of creating adaptation plans, but how these plans are implemented will make the true difference for equitable outcomes.
{"title":"A scoping review of equitable climate adaptation research in U.S. cities","authors":"Olivia G VanBuskirk and Lauren E Mullenbach","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad58f9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad58f9","url":null,"abstract":"As cities continue to prepare for climate change by developing adaptation plans, previous research has examined the content, creation, and considerations of equity and justice in these plans, particularly across United States cities. Climate adaptation activities create the potential for undue harm on marginalized populations, therefore it is important to understand the state of knowledge on equitable climate adaptation as cities begin implementing their plans. We conducted a scoping review of 15 journal articles on equitable adaptation in United States cities to document theoretical frameworks used and major findings. Studies included in our sample primarily used three different theoretical frameworks, including environmental justice theory, neoliberal urban governance, or just sustainabilities, to analyze how plans were created and their contents. Studies we analyzed indicate that cities were successful at identifying problems or challenges but struggled with articulating how to best engage residents and community members or to grapple with systemic issues. We also developed best practices for adaptation based on recommendations from the studies: have clear implementation guidelines, invest in frontline communities, regulate the private sector, work with community-based organizations, and develop regional planning initiatives. Overall, the state of knowledge is such that cities have taken the first step of creating adaptation plans, but how these plans are implemented will make the true difference for equitable outcomes.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141530207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5741
Chuixiang Yi, Vasilis Dakos, Paul D L Ritchie, Jana Sillmann, Juan C Rocha, Manjana Milkoreit and Courtney Quinn
Anthropogenic climate change, marked by unprecedented extremes, is an immediate concern. The Earth’s limited ability to adapt to abrupt changes within our societal timeframe has raised global alarm. Resilience, the capacity to withstand and recover from disturbances, diminishes as disturbances intensify. For avoiding potential catastrophic changes, it is crucial to identify tipping points, where a change in part of a system becomes self-perpetuating beyond some threshold, leading to substantial, widespread, often abrupt and irreversible, impacts. This ERL focus collection has published 27 papers, which contribute novel research findings into the scientific literature in: (1) formulating theories of resilience and tipping points, (2) determining ecological resistance, resilience, and recovery, (3) examining tipping behavior of the Earth system, and (4) identifying social-ecological resilience and tipping points. Some of these results also are useful for policymakers and resource managers in addressing catastrophic disasters as a result of increasingly anthropogenic heating.
{"title":"Earth system resilience and tipping behavior","authors":"Chuixiang Yi, Vasilis Dakos, Paul D L Ritchie, Jana Sillmann, Juan C Rocha, Manjana Milkoreit and Courtney Quinn","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5741","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change, marked by unprecedented extremes, is an immediate concern. The Earth’s limited ability to adapt to abrupt changes within our societal timeframe has raised global alarm. Resilience, the capacity to withstand and recover from disturbances, diminishes as disturbances intensify. For avoiding potential catastrophic changes, it is crucial to identify tipping points, where a change in part of a system becomes self-perpetuating beyond some threshold, leading to substantial, widespread, often abrupt and irreversible, impacts. This ERL focus collection has published 27 papers, which contribute novel research findings into the scientific literature in: (1) formulating theories of resilience and tipping points, (2) determining ecological resistance, resilience, and recovery, (3) examining tipping behavior of the Earth system, and (4) identifying social-ecological resilience and tipping points. Some of these results also are useful for policymakers and resource managers in addressing catastrophic disasters as a result of increasingly anthropogenic heating.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141511229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-27DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad59b7
He Peng, Meng Wang and Chunjiang An
Recent military acts in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are forcing merchant ships to reroute, thereby driving up international shipping rates, prolonging delivery dates, and causing additional greenhouse gas emissions. Utilizing the European Union (EU) Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification emissions database and real time Automatic Identification System data, this study conducted frequency analysis and causative investigation on container ships circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope. The findings indicate that the current policy framework under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) poses a higher risk of carbon leakage, particularly for medium and small-sized container ships, thereby undermining the effectiveness of the nascent EU maritime carbon pricing. If the crisis continues, combined with anticipated tighter emission regulations, this risk is expected to escalate. International maritime policy administrators should make timely adjustments in response to the chain reactions caused by war, enhancing the robustness of cross-regional carbon pricing.
{"title":"Implied threats of the Red Sea crisis to global maritime transport: amplified carbon emissions and possible carbon pricing dysfunction","authors":"He Peng, Meng Wang and Chunjiang An","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad59b7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad59b7","url":null,"abstract":"Recent military acts in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are forcing merchant ships to reroute, thereby driving up international shipping rates, prolonging delivery dates, and causing additional greenhouse gas emissions. Utilizing the European Union (EU) Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification emissions database and real time Automatic Identification System data, this study conducted frequency analysis and causative investigation on container ships circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope. The findings indicate that the current policy framework under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) poses a higher risk of carbon leakage, particularly for medium and small-sized container ships, thereby undermining the effectiveness of the nascent EU maritime carbon pricing. If the crisis continues, combined with anticipated tighter emission regulations, this risk is expected to escalate. International maritime policy administrators should make timely adjustments in response to the chain reactions caused by war, enhancing the robustness of cross-regional carbon pricing.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141511230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-24DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5857
Yuyang Chen, Bo Yao, Jing Wu, Honglong Yang, Ao Ding, Song Liu, Xicheng Li, Simon O’Doherty, Juan Li, Yali Li, Haibo Yu, Wenli Wang, Liqu Chen, Xin Yang, Tzung-May Fu, Huizhong Shen, Jianhuai Ye, Chen Wang and Lei Zhu
The recovery of the ozone layer relies on decreasing atmospheric mixing ratios of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). A significant decline in the mixing ratio of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11 or ), the second most abundant CFC, has been observed since the mid-1990s. However, a slowdown in the decline after 2012 indicates a rise in emissions, particularly in Eastern Asia. Ground-based observations are lacking in southeastern China, limiting a thorough evaluation of CFC-11 levels and emissions in this region. A new Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment background station was established at Xichong (XCG), Shenzhen, China, to provide high-frequency continuous in situ observations. The annual mean CFC-11 mixing ratio, recorded from May 2022 to April 2023, is 221.64 ± 2.29 ppt. When compared with a monthly (MHD) or daily (MLO) observation, this value is found to be 0.45% to 5.36% higher than the northern hemispheric background. With the inverse modeling and interspecies correlation method, we estimate CFC-11 emissions in southeastern China between 1.23 ± 0.25 Gg yr−1 and 1.58 ± 0.21 Gg yr−1, in line with the bottom-up estimation of 1.50 Gg yr−1. Results indicate that CFC-11 emissions in the Pearl River Delta region have returned to levels before 2010, aligning with regional and global trends. Observations from XCG would compensate for the deficiency of CFC-11 measurements in southeastern China, paving the road for ODS studies in this region and beyond.
{"title":"Observations and emission constraints of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) in southeastern China: first-year results from a new AGAGE station","authors":"Yuyang Chen, Bo Yao, Jing Wu, Honglong Yang, Ao Ding, Song Liu, Xicheng Li, Simon O’Doherty, Juan Li, Yali Li, Haibo Yu, Wenli Wang, Liqu Chen, Xin Yang, Tzung-May Fu, Huizhong Shen, Jianhuai Ye, Chen Wang and Lei Zhu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5857","url":null,"abstract":"The recovery of the ozone layer relies on decreasing atmospheric mixing ratios of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). A significant decline in the mixing ratio of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11 or ), the second most abundant CFC, has been observed since the mid-1990s. However, a slowdown in the decline after 2012 indicates a rise in emissions, particularly in Eastern Asia. Ground-based observations are lacking in southeastern China, limiting a thorough evaluation of CFC-11 levels and emissions in this region. A new Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment background station was established at Xichong (XCG), Shenzhen, China, to provide high-frequency continuous in situ observations. The annual mean CFC-11 mixing ratio, recorded from May 2022 to April 2023, is 221.64 ± 2.29 ppt. When compared with a monthly (MHD) or daily (MLO) observation, this value is found to be 0.45% to 5.36% higher than the northern hemispheric background. With the inverse modeling and interspecies correlation method, we estimate CFC-11 emissions in southeastern China between 1.23 ± 0.25 Gg yr−1 and 1.58 ± 0.21 Gg yr−1, in line with the bottom-up estimation of 1.50 Gg yr−1. Results indicate that CFC-11 emissions in the Pearl River Delta region have returned to levels before 2010, aligning with regional and global trends. Observations from XCG would compensate for the deficiency of CFC-11 measurements in southeastern China, paving the road for ODS studies in this region and beyond.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141530286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-24DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad472b
Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle, Tuan Anh Ngo, Fabia Hasch, Thao Vy Phan, Claudia Quitmann and Carlos Alberto Montenegro-Quiñonez
Resilient health systems can reduce the negative health and social effects of climate change. However, health systems are themselves threatened by climate change through climate hazards increasing the demand for services, threatening health infrastructure and supply chains, and stressing the workforce. While there is significant research on the environmental sustainability of health facilities in high-income countries, less attention has been paid to building climate resilience (sustainably), especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This scoping review aims to connect top-down guidelines with concrete bottom-up activities to accelerate transformational change in the health sector. We systematically and comprehensively searched the academic and grey literature to identify case studies of climate-resilient health facilities in LMICs and describe the activities that build resilience to climate-related health risks. We used scoping review methodology (Arksey and O’Malley 2005 Int. J. Soc. Res. Methodol.8 19–32; Levac et al 2010 Implement. Sci.5 69) and employed a two-phase, double-blinded, screening approach to search the academic and grey literature (from 2015 to 2022). We searched four academic databases (Scopus, PubMed, CINAHL, Lilacs), Google Scholar and key websites from the World Health Organisation (WHO), Green Climate Fund, Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative, Health Care Without Harm, and the Global Environmental Facility. A coding framework guided data extraction and data were analysed quantitatively and qualitatively. We identified 26 case studies in 46 countries outlining planned and implemented activities to develop the climate resilience of health facilities in LMICs. We focussed on activities targeting health care facilities rather than broader health systems level planning and present a narrative synthesis of these activities using the WHO Operational Framework for Climate-Resilient and Low Carbon Health Systems. As a result, we developed a conceptual theory of change model that can be applied to various health settings to guide vulnerability assessments and improvement plans to build climate resilience. The research sought to identify successful efforts to build climate resilience at the facility level in LMICs, yet we found very little evidence of actual implementation and no evaluations. Of the case studies that were identified, the activities mapped neatly onto the WHO Operational Framework with some novelties and nuances. Key enablers to building climate resilience include supportive policies, strong information systems, stakeholder coordination, adequate funding, and technical expertise. Community engagement emerges as an important consideration and is recommended for inclusion in climate resilience frameworks, action plans, and strategies. Bridging the knowledge-action gap can be helped by collating experiences, standardized reporting of initiatives, and increased investment in implementation science. Lessons le
{"title":"Climate change resilient health facilities: a scoping review of case studies in low and middle-income countries","authors":"Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle, Tuan Anh Ngo, Fabia Hasch, Thao Vy Phan, Claudia Quitmann and Carlos Alberto Montenegro-Quiñonez","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad472b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad472b","url":null,"abstract":"Resilient health systems can reduce the negative health and social effects of climate change. However, health systems are themselves threatened by climate change through climate hazards increasing the demand for services, threatening health infrastructure and supply chains, and stressing the workforce. While there is significant research on the environmental sustainability of health facilities in high-income countries, less attention has been paid to building climate resilience (sustainably), especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This scoping review aims to connect top-down guidelines with concrete bottom-up activities to accelerate transformational change in the health sector. We systematically and comprehensively searched the academic and grey literature to identify case studies of climate-resilient health facilities in LMICs and describe the activities that build resilience to climate-related health risks. We used scoping review methodology (Arksey and O’Malley 2005 Int. J. Soc. Res. Methodol.8 19–32; Levac et al 2010 Implement. Sci.5 69) and employed a two-phase, double-blinded, screening approach to search the academic and grey literature (from 2015 to 2022). We searched four academic databases (Scopus, PubMed, CINAHL, Lilacs), Google Scholar and key websites from the World Health Organisation (WHO), Green Climate Fund, Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative, Health Care Without Harm, and the Global Environmental Facility. A coding framework guided data extraction and data were analysed quantitatively and qualitatively. We identified 26 case studies in 46 countries outlining planned and implemented activities to develop the climate resilience of health facilities in LMICs. We focussed on activities targeting health care facilities rather than broader health systems level planning and present a narrative synthesis of these activities using the WHO Operational Framework for Climate-Resilient and Low Carbon Health Systems. As a result, we developed a conceptual theory of change model that can be applied to various health settings to guide vulnerability assessments and improvement plans to build climate resilience. The research sought to identify successful efforts to build climate resilience at the facility level in LMICs, yet we found very little evidence of actual implementation and no evaluations. Of the case studies that were identified, the activities mapped neatly onto the WHO Operational Framework with some novelties and nuances. Key enablers to building climate resilience include supportive policies, strong information systems, stakeholder coordination, adequate funding, and technical expertise. Community engagement emerges as an important consideration and is recommended for inclusion in climate resilience frameworks, action plans, and strategies. Bridging the knowledge-action gap can be helped by collating experiences, standardized reporting of initiatives, and increased investment in implementation science. Lessons le","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141530208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-24DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad58fa
Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Jan Sodoge, Eva Nora Paton and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Flash droughts (FDs) have attracted increasing attention in the past decade. They are characterised by a rapid depletion of soil moisture resulting from interactions between the soil and atmospheric conditions. To date, there is a lack of consistent FD definitions and an understanding of their socio-economic impacts. Here, we explore the relationship between biophysical FD conditions and the perceived impacts of FDs in Germany between 2000 and 2022. We measured perceived impacts by analysing consequences reported in newspaper articles (2000–2022) and online search behaviour using Google trends data (2004–2022). To characterise the physical process, we considered root zone soil moisture data. Our results show that FDs are becoming increasingly frequent in Germany, occurring once every two years on average. Despite the lack of knowledge from the general public regarding the phenomenon of FDs, the peaks of interest in drought impacts correspond to the physical occurrence of FDs across the country. We identified an average time gap of four weeks between FD onset and the reporting of perceived impacts. This gap is longer than the average duration of FDs’ onset. Consequently, our findings highlight that consistent monitoring of FD conditions and drivers is necessary to guarantee effective preparedness. As impact perception is too slow to allow the adoption of mitigation measures, FDs require new schemes for response measures compared with slowly emerging (conventional) drought events. The novel method also allows the consistent and impact-based validation of FD identification methods.
{"title":"Flash droughts and their impacts—using newspaper articles to assess the perceived consequences of rapidly emerging droughts","authors":"Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Jan Sodoge, Eva Nora Paton and Mariana Madruga de Brito","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad58fa","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad58fa","url":null,"abstract":"Flash droughts (FDs) have attracted increasing attention in the past decade. They are characterised by a rapid depletion of soil moisture resulting from interactions between the soil and atmospheric conditions. To date, there is a lack of consistent FD definitions and an understanding of their socio-economic impacts. Here, we explore the relationship between biophysical FD conditions and the perceived impacts of FDs in Germany between 2000 and 2022. We measured perceived impacts by analysing consequences reported in newspaper articles (2000–2022) and online search behaviour using Google trends data (2004–2022). To characterise the physical process, we considered root zone soil moisture data. Our results show that FDs are becoming increasingly frequent in Germany, occurring once every two years on average. Despite the lack of knowledge from the general public regarding the phenomenon of FDs, the peaks of interest in drought impacts correspond to the physical occurrence of FDs across the country. We identified an average time gap of four weeks between FD onset and the reporting of perceived impacts. This gap is longer than the average duration of FDs’ onset. Consequently, our findings highlight that consistent monitoring of FD conditions and drivers is necessary to guarantee effective preparedness. As impact perception is too slow to allow the adoption of mitigation measures, FDs require new schemes for response measures compared with slowly emerging (conventional) drought events. The novel method also allows the consistent and impact-based validation of FD identification methods.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141532456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-19DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad53e5
Almudena Nunez, Katherine Caro and Andreas C Goldthau
The European Commission’s REPowerEU plan set the target of importing 10 million tonnes of ‘green’ hydrogen into the European Union (EU) by 2030. Against this backdrop, this paper sets out to assess a central question: which countries can be identified as suitable partners for European green hydrogen imports? Using Germany as a reference case, the article develops a quantitative sustainability and governance index (SGI), assessing five dimensions identified as central to ranking external partners: (i) the political will to scale up a green hydrogen sector; (ii) a country’s integration with the EU/Germany; (iii) its commitment to international engagement and climate targets and policies; (iv) environmental regulatory effectiveness; and, (v) its governance performance. With this, the SGI offers a novel way of thinking about potential EU green hydrogen partnerships. Rather than focusing on the geography of renewables or cost structures underpinning a country’s export potential, the present index captures the extent to which countries may be suitable for green hydrogen partnerships if judged by political and environmental factors. The empirical analysis suggests significant differences between a total of 113 assessed countries as per their overall index ranking, but also the individual dimensions composing the index. This allows drawing conclusions on the policy focus of potential partnerships, taking choices when facing trade-offs regarding individual dimensions, and prioritizing among the latter.
{"title":"A sustainability and governance index for assessing the EU’s green hydrogen import options","authors":"Almudena Nunez, Katherine Caro and Andreas C Goldthau","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad53e5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad53e5","url":null,"abstract":"The European Commission’s REPowerEU plan set the target of importing 10 million tonnes of ‘green’ hydrogen into the European Union (EU) by 2030. Against this backdrop, this paper sets out to assess a central question: which countries can be identified as suitable partners for European green hydrogen imports? Using Germany as a reference case, the article develops a quantitative sustainability and governance index (SGI), assessing five dimensions identified as central to ranking external partners: (i) the political will to scale up a green hydrogen sector; (ii) a country’s integration with the EU/Germany; (iii) its commitment to international engagement and climate targets and policies; (iv) environmental regulatory effectiveness; and, (v) its governance performance. With this, the SGI offers a novel way of thinking about potential EU green hydrogen partnerships. Rather than focusing on the geography of renewables or cost structures underpinning a country’s export potential, the present index captures the extent to which countries may be suitable for green hydrogen partnerships if judged by political and environmental factors. The empirical analysis suggests significant differences between a total of 113 assessed countries as per their overall index ranking, but also the individual dimensions composing the index. This allows drawing conclusions on the policy focus of potential partnerships, taking choices when facing trade-offs regarding individual dimensions, and prioritizing among the latter.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141511233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-18DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ac
David A Gay, Katelan Blaydes, James J Schauer and Martin Shafer
On 3 February 2023, a Norfolk Southern train derailment occurred in East Palestine, Ohio. The accident and subsequent fire resulted in the emissions of large amounts of hazardous compounds to the ambient atmosphere over many days. We used precipitation chemistry measurements routinely collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) to estimate the spatial extent and chemical compounds deposited as a result of the accident. Our measurements revealed a large areal impact from the Midwest through the Northeast and likely Canada, and perhaps as far south as North Carolina (portions of 16 states, 1.4 million km2). Observations showed the expected high chloride concentrations, but also unexpectedly high pH (basic) and exceptionally elevated levels of base cations exceeding 99th percentiles versus the historic record. These results were consistent with the meteorological conditions and atmospheric trajectories, and were not due to highly-concentrated low volume precipitation samples or wildfires. The robust measurements of the NADP network clearly show that the impacts of the fire were larger in scale and scope than the initial predictions, and likely due to the uplift from the fire itself entraining pollutants into the atmosphere. A more detailed evaluation of the accident and resulting fire could further refine the full impact of the atmospheric concentrations, dry and wet deposition, and the more specific extent of the spatial impact.
{"title":"Widespread impacts to precipitation of the East Palestine Ohio train accident","authors":"David A Gay, Katelan Blaydes, James J Schauer and Martin Shafer","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ac","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ac","url":null,"abstract":"On 3 February 2023, a Norfolk Southern train derailment occurred in East Palestine, Ohio. The accident and subsequent fire resulted in the emissions of large amounts of hazardous compounds to the ambient atmosphere over many days. We used precipitation chemistry measurements routinely collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) to estimate the spatial extent and chemical compounds deposited as a result of the accident. Our measurements revealed a large areal impact from the Midwest through the Northeast and likely Canada, and perhaps as far south as North Carolina (portions of 16 states, 1.4 million km2). Observations showed the expected high chloride concentrations, but also unexpectedly high pH (basic) and exceptionally elevated levels of base cations exceeding 99th percentiles versus the historic record. These results were consistent with the meteorological conditions and atmospheric trajectories, and were not due to highly-concentrated low volume precipitation samples or wildfires. The robust measurements of the NADP network clearly show that the impacts of the fire were larger in scale and scope than the initial predictions, and likely due to the uplift from the fire itself entraining pollutants into the atmosphere. A more detailed evaluation of the accident and resulting fire could further refine the full impact of the atmospheric concentrations, dry and wet deposition, and the more specific extent of the spatial impact.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141511234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-17DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ad
Nari Im, Daehyun Kim, Soon-Il An, Seungmok Paik, Soong-Ki Kim, Jongsoo Shin, Seung-Ki Min, Jong-Seong Kug and Hyoeun Oh
This study investigates the mechanism of the hysteresis of European summer mean precipitation in a CO2 removal (CDR) simulation. The European summer mean precipitation exhibits robust hysteresis in response to the CO2 forcing; after decreasing substantially (∼40%) during the ramp-up period, it shows delayed recovery during the ramp-down period. We found that the precipitation hysteresis over Europe is tied to the hysteresis in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). During the ramp-down period, an anomalous high surface pressure circulation prevails over Europe. The anomalous high pressure system is a baroclinic response of the atmosphere to strong North Atlantic cooling associated with a weakened AMOC. This anomalous circulation suppresses summertime convective activity over the entire Europe by decreasing near-surface moist enthalpy in Central and Northern Europe while increasing lower free-tropospheric temperature in Southern Europe. Our findings underscore the need to understand complex interactions in the Earth system for reliable future projections of regional precipitation change under CDR scenarios.
{"title":"Hysteresis of European summer precipitation under a symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down pathway","authors":"Nari Im, Daehyun Kim, Soon-Il An, Seungmok Paik, Soong-Ki Kim, Jongsoo Shin, Seung-Ki Min, Jong-Seong Kug and Hyoeun Oh","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ad","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad52ad","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the mechanism of the hysteresis of European summer mean precipitation in a CO2 removal (CDR) simulation. The European summer mean precipitation exhibits robust hysteresis in response to the CO2 forcing; after decreasing substantially (∼40%) during the ramp-up period, it shows delayed recovery during the ramp-down period. We found that the precipitation hysteresis over Europe is tied to the hysteresis in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). During the ramp-down period, an anomalous high surface pressure circulation prevails over Europe. The anomalous high pressure system is a baroclinic response of the atmosphere to strong North Atlantic cooling associated with a weakened AMOC. This anomalous circulation suppresses summertime convective activity over the entire Europe by decreasing near-surface moist enthalpy in Central and Northern Europe while increasing lower free-tropospheric temperature in Southern Europe. Our findings underscore the need to understand complex interactions in the Earth system for reliable future projections of regional precipitation change under CDR scenarios.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141511235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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