Environmental Research Letters最新文献_第6页

Armed conflict as a catalyst for increasing flood risk 武装冲突是增加洪水风险的催化剂

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb6

Mohammed Basheer, Nadir Ahmed Elagib

Armed conflict has many adverse impacts beyond violence such as increasing risks of natural hazards. Analyses of the interactions between flood risks and armed conflict are essential for developing effective policies and strategies to address both challenges. This study aims to develop conceptual and analytical socio-hydrological frameworks for assessing how armed conflict can impact flood risks. The frameworks postulate a link between armed conflict and flood vulnerability, given that armed conflict creates unique challenges that exacerbate the effects of floods. Our conceptual framework identifies routes through which armed conflict affects vulnerability to floods, such as damage to infrastructure, population displacement and density, weak governance, and less awareness, resulting in lower resilience, higher susceptibility, and increased flood vulnerability and risk. Our analytical framework uses flood modeling to evaluate flood hazards and incorporates spatial data related to armed conflict zones, nighttime light, population classification by age, land price, land cover, and rural/urban areas classification. We take Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, as a case study in view of its armed conflict that erupted in 2023. By highlighting the linkages between armed conflict and flood risk, this study contributes to conceptualizing the broader interlinkages between conflict and environmental systems. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict analysis with disaster risk management strategies. We encourage collaboration between humanitarian, environmental, and security sectors to improve preparedness, response, and resilience in conflict-affected regions. While our analysis for Khartoum is based on conflict zones in the early stages of the conflict and uses simple estimates for conflict vulnerability contribution, the proposed frameworks provide groundwork for assessing changes in flood risk in Sudan and other conflict regions around the world.

除了暴力之外，武装冲突还会产生许多不利影响，例如增加自然灾害的风险。分析洪水风险与武装冲突之间的相互作用对于制定有效的政策和战略来应对这两种挑战至关重要。本研究旨在制定概念性和分析性社会水文框架，以评估武装冲突如何影响洪水风险。这些框架假设武装冲突与洪水脆弱性之间存在联系，因为武装冲突会带来独特的挑战，加剧洪水的影响。我们的概念框架确定了武装冲突影响洪水脆弱性的途径，如基础设施受损、人口流离失所和人口密度、治理薄弱以及意识淡薄，从而导致抗灾能力降低、易受影响程度升高以及洪水脆弱性和风险增加。我们的分析框架使用洪水模型来评估洪水危害，并纳入了与武装冲突地区、夜间光线、人口年龄分类、土地价格、土地覆盖和城乡地区分类相关的空间数据。我们以苏丹首都喀土穆为例，研究其在 2023 年爆发的武装冲突。通过强调武装冲突与洪水风险之间的联系，本研究有助于将冲突与环境系统之间更广泛的相互联系概念化。本研究强调了将冲突分析与灾害风险管理战略相结合的重要性。我们鼓励人道主义、环境和安全部门之间开展合作，以提高受冲突影响地区的防灾、救灾和抗灾能力。虽然我们对喀土穆的分析是基于冲突早期阶段的冲突地区，并使用了对冲突脆弱性贡献的简单估计，但提出的框架为评估苏丹和世界其他冲突地区的洪水风险变化奠定了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Healthy eating in globalized food environments: market access and consumer behavior in the Galápagos Islands of Ecuador 全球化食品环境中的健康饮食：厄瓜多尔加拉帕戈斯群岛的市场准入和消费者行为

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7042

Khristopher M Nicholas, Margaret E Bentley, Enrique Terán, Amanda L Thompson

Food environments are the interface between food systems and consumers. Although market access contributes to diet intake, consumer behavior determines food acquisition practices yet is often neglected in food environment research. Implementing sustainable food system transformations in climate-vulnerable, trade-dependent settings requires effective integration of both geographic and experienced-based measures of access. This study in the Galápagos Islands (i) develops measures for geographic and experience-based food environments (EFEs) and (ii) links diet outcomes to these food environment measures independently and when interacted. Cross-sectional household data including diet recalls come from 388 participants in the Healthy Family Study from San Cristóbal Island, Galápagos in 2018. Geocoded market inventory and price data were obtained in 2018 using the Nutritional Environment Measurement Survey for Stores (n = 60). Geographic food environments were created from market scores and distribution. EFEs were based on factor analyzed consumer behavior strategies. Diet quality was defined using the global dietary recommendations score. Adjusted linear regressions tested the relationships between diet and food environment measures and included sociodemographic covariates. Interactions between geographic and EFEs were tested. This study showed that higher prioritization of convenience when food shopping was associated with lower healthy food intake. However, the relationship between food environment measures and diet is strongly modified by consumer behavior. For convenience-prioritizing households, the nearest market proved most associated with healthy diet outcomes. For households with a food-driven purchasing strategy, the preferred market was most associated with healthy diet outcomes. These findings show that market inventory can be healthful or deleterious to diets, depending on how individuals navigate their food environments. Empirical measures of food access that neglect to consider consumer behavior may fail to capture realistic representations of food environment and diet relationships. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring food system changes to incorporate context-specific consumer behavior.

食品环境是食品系统与消费者之间的界面。虽然市场准入有助于饮食摄入，但消费者的行为决定了食物的获取方式，但在食品环境研究中却常常被忽视。在易受气候影响、依赖贸易的环境中实施可持续粮食系统转型，需要有效整合地理和经验两方面的准入措施。这项在加拉帕戈斯群岛进行的研究(i) 制定了衡量地理和经验型食物环境（EFEs）的标准，(ii) 将饮食结果与这些独立的和相互作用的食物环境标准联系起来。包括饮食回忆在内的家庭横截面数据来自 2018 年加拉帕戈斯圣克里斯托瓦尔岛健康家庭研究的 388 名参与者。地理编码的市场库存和价格数据来自 2018 年的商店营养环境测量调查（n = 60）。根据市场得分和分布创建了地理食品环境。EFE 基于因素分析的消费者行为策略。膳食质量采用全球膳食建议得分进行定义。调整后的线性回归检验了饮食与食品环境测量之间的关系，并纳入了社会人口协变量。还测试了地理因素与 EFE 之间的交互作用。这项研究表明，在购买食物时更优先考虑便利性与健康食物摄入量较低有关。然而，消费者的行为会极大地改变食品环境测量与饮食之间的关系。对于方便优先的家庭来说，最近的市场被证明与健康饮食结果最相关。对于以食品为导向的购买策略的家庭来说，首选市场与健康饮食结果的关系最为密切。这些研究结果表明，市场库存对饮食的健康或有害，取决于个人如何驾驭其食品环境。忽略消费者行为的食物获取经验测量方法可能无法真实反映食物环境与饮食之间的关系。这些发现强调了调整食品系统以纳入特定环境下消费者行为的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Monitoring the effects of climate, land cover and land use changes on multi-hazards in the Gianh River watershed, Vietnam 监测气候、土地覆被和土地利用变化对越南吉安河流域多种灾害的影响

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7278

Huu Duy Nguyen, Dinh Kha Dang, Quoc-Huy Nguyen, Tan Phan-Van, Quang-Thanh Bui, Alexandru-Ionut Petrisor, Son Van Nghiem

In recent decades, global rapid urbanization has exacerbated the impacts of natural hazards due to changes in Southeast Asia’s environmental, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions. Confounding non-stationary processes of climate change and global warming and their negative impacts can make hazards more complex and severe, particularly in Vietnam. Such complexity necessitates a study that can synthesize multi-dimensional natural-human factors in disaster risk assessments. This synthesis study aims to assess and monitor climate change and land-cover/land-use change impacts on flood and landslide hazards in Vietnam’s Gianh River basin. Three Deep Neural Network (DNN) and optimization algorithms, including the Adam, Tunicate Swarm Algorithm (TSA), and Dwarf Mongoose Optimization (DMOA) were used to determine the regions with the probability of the occurrence of flood and landslide and their combination. All efficiently evaluated hazard susceptibility based on a synthesis analysis encompassing 14 natural and anthropogenic conditioning factors. Of the three, the Deep Neural Network (DNN)-DMOA model performed the best for both flood and landslide susceptibility, with area-under-curve values of 0.99 and 0.97, respectively, followed by DNN-TSA (0.97 for flood, 0.92 for landslide), and DNN-Adam (0.96 for flood, 0.89 for landslide). Although the area affected by flooding is predicted to decrease, the overall trend for total hazard-prone areas increases over 2005–2050 due to the more extensive area affected by landslides. This study develop and demonstrate a robust framework to monitor multi-hazard susceptibility, taking into account the changes in climate and land-use influence the occurrence of multiple hazards. Based on the quantitative assessment, these findings can help policymakers understand and identify confounding hazard issues to develop proactive land-management approaches in effective mitigation or adaptation strategies that are spatially and temporally appropriate.

近几十年来，由于东南亚环境、水文和社会经济条件的变化，全球快速城市化加剧了自然灾害的影响。气候变化和全球变暖的非稳态过程及其负面影响会使灾害变得更加复杂和严重，尤其是在越南。鉴于这种复杂性，有必要开展一项研究，在灾害风险评估中综合考虑多维度的自然和人为因素。本综合研究旨在评估和监测气候变化和土地覆盖/土地使用变化对越南吉安河流域洪水和滑坡灾害的影响。研究采用了三种深度神经网络（DNN）和优化算法，包括 Adam 算法、Tunicate Swarm 算法（TSA）和 Dwarf Mongoose 优化算法（DMOA），以确定洪水和滑坡及其组合发生概率的区域。这三种方法都是基于对 14 个自然和人为影响因素的综合分析，对灾害易感性进行有效评估。在这三个模型中，深度神经网络（DNN）-DMOA 模型在洪水和滑坡易感性方面表现最佳，曲线下面积值分别为 0.99 和 0.97，其次是 DNN-TSA（洪水易感性为 0.97，滑坡易感性为 0.92）和 DNN-Adam（洪水易感性为 0.96，滑坡易感性为 0.89）。虽然洪水影响的面积预计会减少，但由于滑坡影响的面积更大，2005-2050 年期间易受灾害影响地区的总面积呈上升趋势。考虑到气候和土地利用的变化对多种灾害发生的影响，本研究开发并展示了一个监测多种灾害易发性的稳健框架。在定量评估的基础上，这些发现可以帮助政策制定者了解和识别混杂的灾害问题，从而在有效的减缓或适应战略中制定出积极主动的土地管理方法，这些方法在空间和时间上都是适当的。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating mangrove community forestry outcomes: a mixed synthetic control and field-based approach 评估红树林社区林业成果：混合合成对照和实地方法

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7306

Irfan Khan Surattee, Aung Kyaw Naing, Shivani Agarwal, Maung Maung Than, Edward L Webb

Contemporary evaluations of outcomes in human-managed systems have been constrained by a lack of counterfactual analysis. Community forestry (CF), a widely adopted strategy to achieve both conservation and management in coupled human-environment systems, is no exception, and counterfactual analysis would greatly enhance CF research. We used a mixed method approach incorporating quantification of deforestation and forest regrowth rates, synthetic control analysis, and focus groups discussions to evaluate mangrove CF outcomes in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar, from to 1990–2021. CF resulted in an overall increase in net forest gain and reduction in net forest loss across sites. More than two-thirds of CF sites had superior outcomes relative to synthetic controls for at least one metric (deforestation or forest regrowth); however, CF tended to perform better for only one outcome while avoiding underperformance in the other. The annual rate of forest regrowth in CFs accelerated beginning three years prior to certification and peaked two years after certification, likely related to pre-certification engagement with the Forest Department or non-government organizations. Moreover, control sites near CFs experienced more rapid forest regrowth than controls further from CFs, suggesting spillover effects. The predominant challenge facing successful CF management was illegal extraction and overharvesting, and poor performing CFs experienced a complex array of challenges facing forest regrowth, likely related to the private nature of individual land claims within the CFs. Most supporting factors for CF were related to community management capacity, strongly indicating a need for extended close engagement with competent government and non-government actors to develop long-term management and governance capacities, which are sustainably funded. Our mixed-method approach can be replicated in other human-managed systems to evaluate the biophysical impacts of policies and gain insights into the underlying drivers of outcomes.

由于缺乏反事实分析，当代对人类管理系统成果的评估一直受到限制。社区林业（CF）是人类与环境耦合系统中广泛采用的一种既能实现保护又能实现管理的策略，它也不例外，而反事实分析将极大地促进社区林业研究。我们采用混合方法，结合森林砍伐率和森林再生率的量化、合成对照分析和焦点小组讨论，对缅甸伊洛瓦底三角洲红树林社区林业在 1990-2021 年间的成果进行了评估。红树林造林在各个地点总体上增加了森林净增量，减少了森林净损失。超过三分之二的 CF 地点至少在一项指标（森林砍伐或森林重新生长）上的结果优于合成对照；然而，CF 往往只在一项结果上表现较好，同时避免在另一项结果上表现不佳。从认证前三年开始，CF 的森林年生长速度加快，并在认证后两年达到顶峰，这可能与认证前与林业部门或非政府组织的合作有关。此外，与距离 CF 较远的控制点相比，CF 附近的控制点的森林再生速度更快，这表明了溢出效应。成功的 CF 管理所面临的主要挑战是非法开采和过度采伐，而表现不佳的 CF 则面临着一系列复杂的森林再生挑战，这可能与 CF 内个人土地所有权的私有性质有关。大多数支持 CF 的因素都与社区管理能力有关，这有力地表明需要与主管政府和非政府行为者扩大密切接触，以发展长期管理和治理能力，并为其提供可持续的资金。我们的混合方法可在其他人类管理的系统中推广，以评估政策对生物物理的影响，并深入了解结果的根本驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Health equity and synergistic abatement strategies of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions reduction in China’s eastern coastal area 中国东部沿海地区二氧化碳和空气污染物减排的健康公平与协同减排战略

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad715b

Shasha Xu, Silu Zhang, Yujie Pan, Xiaorui Liu, Emily Welsch, Xiaotian Ma, Chaoyi Guo, Hancheng Dai

Quantifying regional health disparities linked to air pollution is essential for enhancing air quality and attaining carbon neutrality objectives. Nonetheless, the efficacy of proactive policies in ensuring equitable health protection in China’s Eastern Coastal Area (ECA) remains uncertain. Here, we employed an integrated assessment model to assess the combined reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and atmospheric pollutants and their health repercussions in the ECA of China. Our findings reveal that 273 000 premature deaths are attributable to air pollution in 2060 in the ECA in the absence of mitigation policies. Conversely, carbon reduction policies are poised to curtail 80% of CO₂ emissions, alongside reductions of 76% for NO_x, 79% for SO₂, 80% for PM_2.5, 72% for VOCs, and 66% for NH₃ emissions. Air pollution control policies could mitigate premature deaths by 19 600, while carbon reduction policies could potentially lower them by 50 800. The health inequality coefficient among provinces stands at 0.19, primarily attributable to significantly higher mortality rates in Hebei and Shandong. These findings yield valuable insights for crafting synergistic abatement strategies in similarly imbalanced developmental regions grappling with comparable environmental challenges.

量化与空气污染相关的区域健康差异对于提高空气质量和实现碳中和目标至关重要。然而，在中国东部沿海地区（ECA），确保公平健康保护的积极政策的效果仍不确定。在此，我们采用了一个综合评估模型来评估中国东部沿海地区二氧化碳（CO2）和大气污染物的综合减排及其对健康的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在没有减排政策的情况下，2060 年中国非洲经委会将有 273 000 人因空气污染而过早死亡。相反，碳减排政策有望减少 80% 的二氧化碳排放，同时减少 76% 的氮氧化物、79% 的二氧化硫、80% 的 PM2.5、72% 的挥发性有机物和 66% 的 NH3 排放。空气污染控制政策可减少 19 600 人过早死亡，而碳减排政策则有可能减少 50 800 人过早死亡。各省之间的健康不平等系数为 0.19，这主要归因于河北和山东的死亡率明显较高。这些发现为面临类似环境挑战的发展不平衡地区制定协同减排战略提供了宝贵的启示。

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引用次数: 0

The relationship between pro-environmental behavior, subjective well-being, and environmental impact: a meta-analysis 亲环境行为、主观幸福感和环境影响之间的关系：荟萃分析

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6888

Laura Krumm

A substantial change towards more pro-environmental behavior (PEB) is essential to reach the required reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. These behavior changes will have consequences on people’s daily lives and thus might affect their well-being. Previous research generally finds positive correlations between PEB and well-being. This meta-analysis explores whether the relationship between PEB and well-being depends on the environmental impact of the performed PEB. Overall, the paper finds a small but significant positive relation between PEB and well-being. When accounting for the environmental impact of the PEB, however, the positive relationship only remains for low-impact PEB. The meta-analysis does not provide any evidence that engaging in high-impact PEB relates to well-being. Consequently, these findings demonstrate that there is more ambiguity in the relationship between PEB and well-being than previously described in the literature and that the environmental impact of PEB matters when evaluating its relationship with well-being. These findings have important implications for policy-making trying to facilitate mitigation efforts that ultimately aim to balance the well-being of the current and future generations.

要达到减少温室气体排放和减缓气候变化的要求，就必须大力改变人们的环保行为（PEB）。这些行为变化将对人们的日常生活产生影响，从而可能影响他们的幸福感。以往的研究普遍发现，PEB 与幸福感之间存在正相关关系。本荟萃分析探讨了 PEB 与幸福感之间的关系是否取决于所实施的 PEB 对环境的影响。总体而言，本文发现 PEB 与幸福感之间存在微小但显著的正相关关系。然而，当考虑到 PEB 对环境的影响时，只有低影响的 PEB 才会保持正相关。荟萃分析没有提供任何证据表明参与高影响的 PEB 与幸福感有关。因此，这些研究结果表明，PEB 与幸福感之间的关系比之前文献中描述的更加模糊，在评估 PEB 与幸福感的关系时，PEB 对环境的影响很重要。这些研究结果对决策具有重要意义，决策的目的是促进最终旨在平衡当代人和后代人福祉的减排努力。

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引用次数: 0

Divergent impacts of seasonal precipitation deficiency on grassland growth in drylands of Central Asia 季节性降水不足对中亚干旱地区草地生长的不同影响

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea7

Ye Yuan, Anming Bao, Cun Chang, Liangliang Jiang, Guoxiong Zheng, Tao Yu, Ping Jiang

Water availability and its timing are essential for determining dryland dynamics, and grasslands in Central Asia are particularly vulnerable to water provided by precipitation. Climate change is projected to alter the seasonal distribution of precipitation patterns and increase the frequency of extreme events. Little is known about the response of grasslands to seasonal precipitation deficiency (PD), especially considering the time lag effect. Here, we evaluated the impacts of PD on grassland growth at the seasonal scale based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our findings showed that grassland growth during spring was mostly affected by PD in arid regions, with PD occurring during the nongrowing season and spring causing mean standardized anomalies (SAs) of −0.83 and −0.54, respectively, for the NDVI. In semiarid and subhumid regions, summer PD caused not only the largest negative response in summer (with SAs of −0.94 and −0.80 for semiarid and subhumid regions, respectively) but also in autumn (−0.80 and −0.74). PD in autumn had a less adverse effect on grassland growth. The divergent seasonal responses primarily stemmed from shifts in the dominant factors influencing grassland growth across seasons. PD reduced soil moisture in spring and summer, which in turn affected grassland growth. However, summer PD affected autumn grassland growth primarily through the carryover effect. Our results highlighted the importance of the timing of PD and suggested that precipitation in the previous season should receive more attention when considering the relationship between vegetation and precipitation at the seasonal scale.

水的供应及其时间安排对决定旱地的动态至关重要，中亚的草地尤其容易受到降水提供的水的影响。据预测，气候变化将改变降水的季节分布模式，并增加极端事件发生的频率。人们对草原对季节性降水不足（PD）的反应知之甚少，尤其是考虑到时滞效应。在此，我们根据归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）评估了季节性降水不足对草原生长的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在干旱地区，春季草原生长主要受到干旱的影响，在非生长季和春季发生的干旱导致归一化差异植被指数的平均标准化异常（SAs）分别为-0.83和-0.54。在半干旱和亚湿润地区，夏季干旱不仅在夏季造成了最大的负响应（半干旱和亚湿润地区的标准化异常值分别为-0.94和-0.80），而且在秋季也造成了最大的负响应（-0.80和-0.74）。秋季干旱对草地生长的不利影响较小。季节反应的差异主要源于影响草原生长的主导因素在不同季节的变化。春季和夏季的干旱减少了土壤水分，进而影响了草地的生长。然而，夏季干旱主要通过结转效应影响秋季草原的生长。我们的研究结果突显了降水过程时间的重要性，并建议在考虑季节尺度上植被与降水之间的关系时，应更多地关注前一季的降水。

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引用次数: 0

Exposure to ambient PM2.5 and its association with the loss of labor productivity of manufacturing plants in India 环境 PM2.5 暴露及其与印度制造厂劳动生产率损失的关系

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea4

Piyali Majumder, Ekta Chaudhary, Sagnik Dey

Evidence of the impacts of ambient air pollution on health in India has been expanding. However, the economic impact of air pollution has rarely been explored. Here, we examined the impact of exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) derived from satellite data at 1 km × 1 km resolution on the productivity of the manufacturing plants using a micro-level dataset for the period 2008–2009 and 2009–2010 across 465 districts in India. Using a system generalized methods of moments techniques, we estimated that for every 10% increase in PM_2.5 exposure, labor productivity decreases by 14.8% after controlling for the confounding factors. For exposure exceeding the national ambient air quality standard of annual PM_2.5 in India (40 μg m⁻³), the labor productivity decreases by a bigger margin (20%) for the same margin of increase in PM_2.5. We found that labor productivity loss due to ambient air pollution was lower for plants using capital-intensive production techniques. The labor productivity in plants with a higher share of blue-collar workers was more sensitive to exposure to PM_2.5 as opposed to plants with a higher share of supervisors or managerial staff. This suggests that plant-level managerial skill and capital-intensive production techniques (including expenditure on pollution control and abatement equipment) will be critical in mitigating air pollution-induced labor productivity loss across manufacturing plants in India.

在印度，环境空气污染对健康影响的证据越来越多。然而，人们很少探讨空气污染对经济的影响。在此，我们使用 2008-2009 年和 2009-2010 年期间印度 465 个县的微观数据集，研究了暴露于 1 km × 1 km 分辨率卫星数据中的环境细颗粒物（PM2.5）对制造工厂生产率的影响。利用系统广义矩方法技术，我们估算出 PM2.5 暴露每增加 10%，劳动生产率就会降低 14.8%。当暴露于超过印度国家环境空气质量年 PM2.5 标准（40 μg m-3）的空气中时，在 PM2.5 增加相同幅度的情况下，劳动生产率下降的幅度更大（20%）。我们发现，采用资本密集型生产技术的工厂因环境空气污染而损失的劳动生产率较低。与主管或管理人员比例较高的工厂相比，蓝领工人比例较高的工厂的劳动生产率对 PM2.5 暴露更为敏感。这表明，工厂一级的管理技能和资本密集型生产技术（包括在污染控制和减排设备上的支出）对于减轻空气污染导致的印度制造业工厂劳动生产率损失至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating effects of monsoon flooding on household water access. 估算季风洪水对家庭用水的影响。

IF 5.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ce9

Lauren M T Broyles, Emily L Pakhtigian, Alfonso Mejia

The importance of climate in water resources management is well recognized, but less is known about how climate affects water access at the household level. Understanding this is crucial for identifying vulnerable households, reducing health and well-being risks, and finding equitable solutions. Using difference-in-differences regression analyses and relying on temporal variation in interview timing from multiple, cross-sectional surveys, we examine the effects of monsoon riverine flooding on household water access among 34 000 households in Bangladesh in 2011 and 2014. We compare water access, a combined measure of both water source and time for collection, among households living in flood-affected and non-flood-affected districts before and after monsoon flooding events. We find that households in monsoon flood-affected districts surveyed after the flooding had between 2.27 and 4.42 times higher odds of experiencing low water access. Separating geographically, we find that while households in coastal districts have lower water access than those in non-coastal districts, monsoon flood exposure is a stronger predictor of low water access in non-coastal districts. Non-coastal districts were particularly burdened in 2014, when households affected by monsoon flooding had 4.71 times higher odds of low water access. We also find that household wealth is a consistent predictor of household water access. Overall, our results show that monsoon flooding is associated with a higher prevalence of low water access; socioeconomically vulnerable households are especially burdened.

气候在水资源管理中的重要性已得到公认，但人们对气候如何影响家庭用水却知之甚少。了解这一点对于识别弱势家庭、降低健康和福利风险以及找到公平的解决方案至关重要。利用差分回归分析，并依靠多次横截面调查中访谈时间的时间变化，我们研究了 2011 年和 2014 年季风河洪水对孟加拉国 34000 个家庭水资源获取的影响。我们比较了季风洪水事件发生前后生活在受洪水影响地区和未受洪水影响地区的家庭获得水的情况，这是衡量水源和取水时间的综合指标。我们发现，在季风洪灾后接受调查的受洪灾影响地区的家庭中，水源不足的几率要高出 2.27 到 4.42 倍。按地域划分，我们发现沿海地区的家庭用水量低于非沿海地区，而季风洪灾对非沿海地区用水量低的预测作用更大。非沿海地区在 2014 年承受的负担尤为沉重，受季风洪水影响的家庭出现低用水率的几率是沿海地区的 4.71 倍。我们还发现，家庭财富是预测家庭用水情况的一致因素。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，季风洪灾与较高的低用水率相关；社会经济弱势家庭的负担尤其沉重。

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引用次数: 0

Estimated mortality attributable to the urban heat island during the record-breaking 2022 heatwave in London. 伦敦 2022 年破纪录的热浪期间城市热岛造成的死亡率估计。

IF 5.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Research Letters

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6c65

Charles H Simpson, Oscar Brousse, Clare Heaviside

The United Kingdom experienced its most extreme heatwave to date during late July 2022, with maximum air temperatures exceeding 40 °C recorded for the first time in history on July 19th. High ambient temperatures have been statistically shown to lead to increased mortality. Higher nighttime temperatures that occur in more urbanised areas, called the urban heat island (UHI), may contribute to the mortality burden of heat. In this study, we applied health impact assessment methods with advanced urban climate modelling to estimate what contribution the UHI had on the mortality impact of the 10-25 July 2022 heatwave in Greater London. Estimated mortality due to heat and due to the UHI were compared with estimated mortality due to air pollution in the same period, based on monitored concentrations. We estimate that of the 1773 deaths in Greater London in this period 370 (95% confidence interval 328-410) could be attributed to heat. We estimate that 38% of these heat-related deaths could be attributed to the UHI. In the same period is estimate deaths attributable to PM2.5 were 20.6 (10.4-30.8) and to ozone were 52.3 (95% confidence interval 18.6-85.2). Despite not contributing to the record-breaking maximum air temperature observed during this period, the UHI may have contributed to the heatwave's mortality burden through raised nighttime temperature. While air pollutant concentrations were elevated during the period, deaths attributable to air pollution were relatively few compared to deaths attributable to heat.

2022 年 7 月下旬，英国经历了迄今为止最极端的热浪，7 月 19 日的最高气温有史以来首次超过 40 °C。据统计，环境温度过高会导致死亡率上升。在城市化程度较高的地区，夜间气温较高，称为城市热岛（UHI），可能会加重高温造成的死亡负担。在这项研究中，我们运用健康影响评估方法和先进的城市气候建模，估算了 2022 年 7 月 10-25 日大伦敦地区热浪对死亡率的影响。根据监测到的浓度，我们将因高温和因超高温影响造成的估计死亡率与同期因空气污染造成的估计死亡率进行了比较。我们估计，在这一时期大伦敦地区的 1773 例死亡中，有 370 例（95% 置信区间为 328-410）可归因于高温。我们估计，在这些与高温有关的死亡案例中，38% 可归因于超高温影响。据估计，同期因 PM2.5 导致的死亡人数为 20.6 人（10.4-30.8 人），因臭氧导致的死亡人数为 52.3 人（95% 置信区间为 18.6-85.2）。尽管这一时期的最高气温并没有创下历史新高，但由于夜间气温升高，超高温影响可能导致了热浪造成的死亡。虽然在此期间空气污染物浓度升高，但与热浪造成的死亡相比，空气污染造成的死亡相对较少。

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