Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb
Geanderson Ambrósio, Jonathan C Doelman, Aafke M Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren
Mitigating climate change (CC) and reversing biodiversity decline are urgent and interconnected global priorities. Strategies to address both crises must consider the relationships, synergies and trade-offs between key response measures, including sustainable production and consumption patterns, protected areas (PAs) and climate mitigation policy (CP). In this paper, we review a large set of scenarios (n = 96) from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) describing future development of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on CC and biodiversity. We calculate the global mean temperature increase (GMTI) and the Mean Species Abundance (MSA) of plants, a metric indicative of local terrestrial biodiversity intactness. The set includes scenarios with and without specific CP to address CC, PA for biodiversity and demand and supply sustainability measures such as increased energy efficiency and reduced meat consumption. Our findings indicate that scenarios with integrated measures can prevent biodiversity loss at the global scale, yet with clear regional differences. By 2050, 15 out of 30 (50%) scenarios with at least 30% of global land as PAs show positive MSA changes in grasslands and tropical non-forests (Grass & TnF), but only 1 (3%) does so in tropical forests (TF). We demonstrate that pasture and food/feed crops are the main drivers of MSA loss in Grass & TnF and that scenarios with high levels of PAs prevent land conversion and increase biodiversity. By 2100, 28 out of 46 (60%) scenarios with mitigation measures to restrict CC to 2 °C or less in 2100 result in positive MSA changes in TF, but only 13 (28%) do so in Grass & TnF, reflecting the larger impacts of land use change in the latter region. These results underscore the importance of time and regionally-tailored approaches to address the biodiversity and CC crises.
{"title":"Global sustainability scenarios lead to regionally different outcomes for terrestrial biodiversity","authors":"Geanderson Ambrósio, Jonathan C Doelman, Aafke M Schipper, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb","url":null,"abstract":"Mitigating climate change (CC) and reversing biodiversity decline are urgent and interconnected global priorities. Strategies to address both crises must consider the relationships, synergies and trade-offs between key response measures, including sustainable production and consumption patterns, protected areas (PAs) and climate mitigation policy (CP). In this paper, we review a large set of scenarios (<italic toggle=\"yes\">n</italic> = 96) from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) describing future development of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on CC and biodiversity. We calculate the global mean temperature increase (GMTI) and the Mean Species Abundance (MSA) of plants, a metric indicative of local terrestrial biodiversity intactness. The set includes scenarios with and without specific CP to address CC, PA for biodiversity and demand and supply sustainability measures such as increased energy efficiency and reduced meat consumption. Our findings indicate that scenarios with integrated measures can prevent biodiversity loss at the global scale, yet with clear regional differences. By 2050, 15 out of 30 (50%) scenarios with at least 30% of global land as PAs show positive MSA changes in grasslands and tropical non-forests (Grass & TnF), but only 1 (3%) does so in tropical forests (TF). We demonstrate that pasture and food/feed crops are the main drivers of MSA loss in Grass & TnF and that scenarios with high levels of PAs prevent land conversion and increase biodiversity. By 2100, 28 out of 46 (60%) scenarios with mitigation measures to restrict CC to 2 °C or less in 2100 result in positive MSA changes in TF, but only 13 (28%) do so in Grass & TnF, reflecting the larger impacts of land use change in the latter region. These results underscore the importance of time and regionally-tailored approaches to address the biodiversity and CC crises.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7475
Xiaomeng Wu, Yi Liu, Zongqi Yu, Jitong Jiang, Chunyan Wang, Bu Zhao
The Water-Energy Nexus (WEN) provides a comprehensive concept for the cooperative management of resources. Although the WEN system in cities is intricately connected to socioeconomic activities, relationship between WEN and economic systems remains understudied. This study introduces a tri-dimensional Nexus Pressure Index (NPI) to assess the pressure on WEN system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and city tiers in the urban agglomeration were used to assess the relationship between the characteristics of WEN and economic system. We conducted a case study of 296 cities in China and 1330 counties in the United States from 2012 to 2019. During the 9 year study period, on average, pressure on WEN system have relieved by 22% in China and 27% in the United States, measured by NPI. Cities with most ideal characteristics (low pressure in all dimensions) rank merely in the middle of all eight classes, with GDP per capita 74% and 85% of the highest-GDP-per-capita class in China and the US respectively. Well-performing WEN system does not yield best economic outcomes. High water pressure correlates with better economic performance in the US, while high-energy-pressure cities had GDP per capita about 50% and 70% of the class with highest GDP per capita in China and the US, respectively, suggesting stronger economic constraints from energy stress. Urban agglomeration analysis revealed a negative relationship between WEN and economic performance. NPI in emerging cities is 0.6–1 lower than NPI in regionally-central cities in China, while 0.2–0.5 lower in the US. These results underscore the contradiction between preferred WEN characteristics and higher economic performance, and underpin the resource curse hypothesis at city-level in the two considered giants. A sustainable approach to harmonize WEN and economic system is in urgent need.
{"title":"Assessing urban water-energy nexus characteristics in China and the US","authors":"Xiaomeng Wu, Yi Liu, Zongqi Yu, Jitong Jiang, Chunyan Wang, Bu Zhao","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7475","url":null,"abstract":"The Water-Energy Nexus (WEN) provides a comprehensive concept for the cooperative management of resources. Although the WEN system in cities is intricately connected to socioeconomic activities, relationship between WEN and economic systems remains understudied. This study introduces a tri-dimensional Nexus Pressure Index (NPI) to assess the pressure on WEN system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and city tiers in the urban agglomeration were used to assess the relationship between the characteristics of WEN and economic system. We conducted a case study of 296 cities in China and 1330 counties in the United States from 2012 to 2019. During the 9 year study period, on average, pressure on WEN system have relieved by 22% in China and 27% in the United States, measured by NPI. Cities with most ideal characteristics (low pressure in all dimensions) rank merely in the middle of all eight classes, with GDP per capita 74% and 85% of the highest-GDP-per-capita class in China and the US respectively. Well-performing WEN system does not yield best economic outcomes. High water pressure correlates with better economic performance in the US, while high-energy-pressure cities had GDP per capita about 50% and 70% of the class with highest GDP per capita in China and the US, respectively, suggesting stronger economic constraints from energy stress. Urban agglomeration analysis revealed a negative relationship between WEN and economic performance. NPI in emerging cities is 0.6–1 lower than NPI in regionally-central cities in China, while 0.2–0.5 lower in the US. These results underscore the contradiction between preferred WEN characteristics and higher economic performance, and underpin the resource curse hypothesis at city-level in the two considered giants. A sustainable approach to harmonize WEN and economic system is in urgent need.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad75aa
Mirjam van der Mheen, Charitha Pattiaratchi
Large amounts of plastic waste from non-local sources (>200 tonnes) wash up on Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands, two remote Indian Ocean islands, every year. Local communities on these islands organize beach clean-ups regularly to tackle this problem and, because their waste systems cannot handle the enormous amounts of plastic, predominantly incinerate the collected waste. However, as long as plastic waste keeps entering the ocean, beach clean-ups alone cannot be sustained. The first crucial step to solving this problem is to determine the main sources of plastic waste to the islands. In this study, we simulate the transport of floating plastic waste to determine the main riverine sources of plastic reaching the islands. We find that the majority of simulated plastic waste comes from just 4 Indonesian rivers: the Solo, Brantas, Ci Tanduy, and Wai Sekampung. We suggest that further numerical and field studies, as well as potential river clean-up efforts focus on these rivers to stop plastic waste inundating Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands.
{"title":"Plastic debris beaching on two remote Indian Ocean islands originates from handful of Indonesian rivers","authors":"Mirjam van der Mheen, Charitha Pattiaratchi","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad75aa","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad75aa","url":null,"abstract":"Large amounts of plastic waste from non-local sources (>200 tonnes) wash up on Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands, two remote Indian Ocean islands, every year. Local communities on these islands organize beach clean-ups regularly to tackle this problem and, because their waste systems cannot handle the enormous amounts of plastic, predominantly incinerate the collected waste. However, as long as plastic waste keeps entering the ocean, beach clean-ups alone cannot be sustained. The first crucial step to solving this problem is to determine the main sources of plastic waste to the islands. In this study, we simulate the transport of floating plastic waste to determine the main riverine sources of plastic reaching the islands. We find that the majority of simulated plastic waste comes from just 4 Indonesian rivers: the Solo, Brantas, Ci Tanduy, and Wai Sekampung. We suggest that further numerical and field studies, as well as potential river clean-up efforts focus on these rivers to stop plastic waste inundating Christmas Island and the Cocos Keeling Islands.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7477
Kana Yamamoto, Tim DeVries, David A Siegel
Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO2 reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO2 reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO2 response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality (α) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO2 relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency (ϵ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, α is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO2 in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, α is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO2 equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean ϵ approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with ϵ approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while ϵ stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.
{"title":"Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO2 reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)","authors":"Kana Yamamoto, Tim DeVries, David A Siegel","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7477","url":null,"abstract":"Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality (<italic toggle=\"yes\">α</italic>) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency (<italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic>) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, <italic toggle=\"yes\">α</italic> is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO<sub>2</sub> in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, <italic toggle=\"yes\">α</italic> is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO<sub>2</sub> equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean <italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic> approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with <italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic> approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while <italic toggle=\"yes\">ϵ</italic> stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7478
Tarul Sharma, Giriraj Amarnath, Upali Amarasinghe and Abdulkarim Seid
Prolonged and recurrent droughts seriously threaten Africa’s food and water security. This threat frequently coexists with human-induced calamities, such as domestic and international conflicts and civil unrest, which could exacerbate the socio-economic instability already present in the region. Using a novel data-driven approach, we evaluated how drought risk in Africa affects the security of various crucial sectors of sustainable development, such as agriculture, water, and food nutrition/health (referred here as ‘nutritional’). Our findings show that different sectors and geographical areas exhibit distinct risk footprints. In Central African countries, for instance, we found that social instability linked to higher nutritional risk is more prevalent than that resulting from the agriculture and water sectors. Socio-economic volatility rather than uncertainty in the climate is the primary driver of this elevated nutritional risk. However, most Northern African countries are at risk of considerable agriculture and water insecurity because of extreme water stress and unstable climate trends. We indicate that the risk is majorly driven by recurrent drought events in Southern Africa, which significantly affect inclusive sectoral securities. The cause of higher risks in Eastern and Western Africa has been found to be an unfavorable interaction of all the risk components—vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. Notably, basic amenities, climate stability, and access to sustainable and renewable water sources are often missing from Africa’s sectoral risk hotspots. Our results emphasize the necessity of maximizing the efficacy of bottom-up initiatives to achieve sustainable food and water security, by integrating socio-economic policies and climate change at the granular level through observation.
{"title":"Footprints of drought risk on Africa’s agricultural, water and nutritional security","authors":"Tarul Sharma, Giriraj Amarnath, Upali Amarasinghe and Abdulkarim Seid","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7478","url":null,"abstract":"Prolonged and recurrent droughts seriously threaten Africa’s food and water security. This threat frequently coexists with human-induced calamities, such as domestic and international conflicts and civil unrest, which could exacerbate the socio-economic instability already present in the region. Using a novel data-driven approach, we evaluated how drought risk in Africa affects the security of various crucial sectors of sustainable development, such as agriculture, water, and food nutrition/health (referred here as ‘nutritional’). Our findings show that different sectors and geographical areas exhibit distinct risk footprints. In Central African countries, for instance, we found that social instability linked to higher nutritional risk is more prevalent than that resulting from the agriculture and water sectors. Socio-economic volatility rather than uncertainty in the climate is the primary driver of this elevated nutritional risk. However, most Northern African countries are at risk of considerable agriculture and water insecurity because of extreme water stress and unstable climate trends. We indicate that the risk is majorly driven by recurrent drought events in Southern Africa, which significantly affect inclusive sectoral securities. The cause of higher risks in Eastern and Western Africa has been found to be an unfavorable interaction of all the risk components—vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. Notably, basic amenities, climate stability, and access to sustainable and renewable water sources are often missing from Africa’s sectoral risk hotspots. Our results emphasize the necessity of maximizing the efficacy of bottom-up initiatives to achieve sustainable food and water security, by integrating socio-economic policies and climate change at the granular level through observation.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6916
Nanna Lauritz Schönhage, Theresa Wieland, Luna Bellani, Gabriele Spilker
Climate change and most climate policies affect and reinforce different forms of inequalities. For instance, climate change policies that aim to change consumer behavior by increasing the price tag of goods and services that cause carbon emissions often carry a disproportionately higher burden (in terms of financial cost) to those with lower incomes. They can thereby either exacerbate existing income inequalities or contribute to generating new ones. Meanwhile, refraining from engaging with climate mitigation policies will incur other detrimental societal costs: the financial burden and the harmful consequences of climate change that future generations will have to bear if nothing is done. In this paper, we examine how the immediate economic inequality citizens face from climate mitigation policies (regarding carbon taxation) weighs against the long-term generational inequalities future generations will experience. We study how both types of inequality relate to policy support for climate change mitigation policies in the context of Germany. The German case is of special interest because a recent court ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court allows us to test whether making people aware of a new legal reality can bridge the gap between the economic and generational inequality. Our findings using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among German citizens (N = 6,319) in 2022 show that immediate economic concerns trump future generational concerns, generally making citizens less supportive of the policy. This negative support is however somewhat mitigated by the supportive signal from the court ruling.
{"title":"Can the court bridge the gap? Public perception of economic vs. generational inequalities in climate change mitigation policies","authors":"Nanna Lauritz Schönhage, Theresa Wieland, Luna Bellani, Gabriele Spilker","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6916","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and most climate policies affect and reinforce different forms of inequalities. For instance, climate change policies that aim to change consumer behavior by increasing the price tag of goods and services that cause carbon emissions often carry a disproportionately higher burden (in terms of financial cost) to those with lower incomes. They can thereby either exacerbate existing income inequalities or contribute to generating new ones. Meanwhile, refraining from engaging with climate mitigation policies will incur other detrimental societal costs: the financial burden and the harmful consequences of climate change that future generations will have to bear if nothing is done. In this paper, we examine how the immediate economic inequality citizens face from climate mitigation policies (regarding carbon taxation) weighs against the long-term generational inequalities future generations will experience. We study how both types of inequality relate to policy support for climate change mitigation policies in the context of Germany. The German case is of special interest because a recent court ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court allows us to test whether making people aware of a new legal reality can bridge the gap between the economic and generational inequality. Our findings using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among German citizens (<italic toggle=\"yes\">N</italic> = 6,319) in 2022 show that immediate economic concerns trump future generational concerns, generally making citizens less supportive of the policy. This negative support is however somewhat mitigated by the supportive signal from the court ruling.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7616
Meihui Jiang and Wenlin Cai
To answer the question of whether the growth of digital inputs can be beneficial for carbon neutrality, we thoroughly explore the impacts of digital inputs on carbon emission reduction in this work. We propose a combined framework of panel regression model and multi-objective optimization model to identify the key digital sectors and obtain their optimal total outputs. First, the results show that digital inputs continue to increase in most countries (regions) from 2000 to 2021, especially in the USA, EU countries and China. Digital equipment inputs in China are the most significant, while digital service inputs in the USA and EU countries are relatively important. Second, the regression results show that digital service inputs have significantly negative influence on carbon emissions, which means that the growth of digital service inputs will decrease carbon emissions. This result indicates that the key point of industrial digitalization for carbon emission reduction may be increasing the digital service inputs. Third, the optimization results show that the digital-input-oriented optimization model, which encourages an increase in digital service inputs, could achieve greater targets of economic growth and carbon emission reduction. The total outputs of Telecommunication Services and Computer Services should increase globally by 10.24% and 8.89%, respectively.
{"title":"Digital input requirements for global carbon emission reduction","authors":"Meihui Jiang and Wenlin Cai","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7616","url":null,"abstract":"To answer the question of whether the growth of digital inputs can be beneficial for carbon neutrality, we thoroughly explore the impacts of digital inputs on carbon emission reduction in this work. We propose a combined framework of panel regression model and multi-objective optimization model to identify the key digital sectors and obtain their optimal total outputs. First, the results show that digital inputs continue to increase in most countries (regions) from 2000 to 2021, especially in the USA, EU countries and China. Digital equipment inputs in China are the most significant, while digital service inputs in the USA and EU countries are relatively important. Second, the regression results show that digital service inputs have significantly negative influence on carbon emissions, which means that the growth of digital service inputs will decrease carbon emissions. This result indicates that the key point of industrial digitalization for carbon emission reduction may be increasing the digital service inputs. Third, the optimization results show that the digital-input-oriented optimization model, which encourages an increase in digital service inputs, could achieve greater targets of economic growth and carbon emission reduction. The total outputs of Telecommunication Services and Computer Services should increase globally by 10.24% and 8.89%, respectively.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7615
Ning Xin, Botao Zhou, Haishan Chen, Shanlei Sun and Minchu Yan
Given that the vegetation over mid-high latitude Asia (MHA) has been more variable in recent years, it is necessary to better understand the physical causes of vegetation variations in this region. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), this study reveals a close linkage of the variability of spring (April–May) vegetation in MHA to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. When the winter PNA pattern lies in the positive phase, the NDVI tends to decrease in most parts of the MHA region during the following spring. Further analysis suggests that the lagged influence of winter PNA on spring atmospheric circulations and hence the vegetation in MHA is accomplished by the stratospheric pathway. The positive PNA phase can enhance the upward transport of wave energy into the stratosphere over the high latitudes in winter through the linear constructive interference of zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1), consequently leading to a weaker polar vortex in the stratosphere during February-March. Subsequently, the weakened polar vortex signal propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere, inducing the negative Arctic Oscillation-like circulation with an anomalous cyclonic circulation dominating the MHA region in spring. The anomalous cyclonic circulation further cools the surface air temperature in MHA via modulating downward solar radiation and temperature advection, resulting in a decrease of spring NDVI in situ.
{"title":"Significant influence of winter Pacific-North American pattern on spring vegetation in mid-high latitude Asia","authors":"Ning Xin, Botao Zhou, Haishan Chen, Shanlei Sun and Minchu Yan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7615","url":null,"abstract":"Given that the vegetation over mid-high latitude Asia (MHA) has been more variable in recent years, it is necessary to better understand the physical causes of vegetation variations in this region. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), this study reveals a close linkage of the variability of spring (April–May) vegetation in MHA to the winter (December–January–February) Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. When the winter PNA pattern lies in the positive phase, the NDVI tends to decrease in most parts of the MHA region during the following spring. Further analysis suggests that the lagged influence of winter PNA on spring atmospheric circulations and hence the vegetation in MHA is accomplished by the stratospheric pathway. The positive PNA phase can enhance the upward transport of wave energy into the stratosphere over the high latitudes in winter through the linear constructive interference of zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1), consequently leading to a weaker polar vortex in the stratosphere during February-March. Subsequently, the weakened polar vortex signal propagates downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere, inducing the negative Arctic Oscillation-like circulation with an anomalous cyclonic circulation dominating the MHA region in spring. The anomalous cyclonic circulation further cools the surface air temperature in MHA via modulating downward solar radiation and temperature advection, resulting in a decrease of spring NDVI in situ.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041
Luisa Pennacchio, Marie K Mikkelsen, Morten Krogsbøll, Maarten van Herpen and Matthew S Johnson
Despite their apparent utility in mitigating climate change, technologies for removing methane from air are in early stages of development. Here we evaluate the limiting physical constraints, for three types of systems: two- and three-dimensional infrastructure and atmospheric oxidation enhancement, focusing on removing low ( 1000 ppm) and ambient ( 2 ppm) methane from air. With the space velocities and removal efficiencies of current three-dimensional technologies, volumes of 7–350 km3 are required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1. Two-dimensional solutions are limited by the transport rate of methane to a surface. If every molecule of methane that collides with the surface is removed, an area of 1130 km2 is needed to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1 at ambient concentration. However, research shows that per-collision reaction probabilities are 10−8 requiring a surface area of 1010–1015 km2. Finally, we examine atmospheric oxidation enhancement, where 4.8 Tg yr−1 of Cl or 8.8 Tg yr−1 of OH is required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1, with precursors such as H2O2 or O3. However, limitations arise concerning multiple environmental impacts. We conclude that the physical and practical constraints are considerable, and identify the main barriers that must be addressed.
{"title":"Physical and practical constraints on atmospheric methane removal technologies","authors":"Luisa Pennacchio, Marie K Mikkelsen, Morten Krogsbøll, Maarten van Herpen and Matthew S Johnson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7041","url":null,"abstract":"Despite their apparent utility in mitigating climate change, technologies for removing methane from air are in early stages of development. Here we evaluate the limiting physical constraints, for three types of systems: two- and three-dimensional infrastructure and atmospheric oxidation enhancement, focusing on removing low ( 1000 ppm) and ambient ( 2 ppm) methane from air. With the space velocities and removal efficiencies of current three-dimensional technologies, volumes of 7–350 km3 are required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1. Two-dimensional solutions are limited by the transport rate of methane to a surface. If every molecule of methane that collides with the surface is removed, an area of 1130 km2 is needed to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1 at ambient concentration. However, research shows that per-collision reaction probabilities are 10−8 requiring a surface area of 1010–1015 km2. Finally, we examine atmospheric oxidation enhancement, where 4.8 Tg yr−1 of Cl or 8.8 Tg yr−1 of OH is required to remove 1 Tg CH4 yr−1, with precursors such as H2O2 or O3. However, limitations arise concerning multiple environmental impacts. We conclude that the physical and practical constraints are considerable, and identify the main barriers that must be addressed.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f
Madhulika Gurazada, Sonali McDermid, Ruth DeFries, Kyle F Davis, Jitendra Singh and Deepti Singh
Natural climate phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence the Indian monsoon and thereby the region’s agricultural systems. Understanding their influence can provide seasonal predictability of agricultural production metrics to inform decision-making and mitigate potential food security challenges. Here, we analyze the effects of ENSO and IOD on four agricultural production metrics (production, harvested area, irrigated area, and yields) for rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet across India from 1968 to 2015. El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in the production and yields of multiple crops. Impacts vary considerably by crop and geography. Maize and pearl millet experience large declines in both production and yields when compared to other grains in districts located in the northwest and southern peninsular regions. Associated with warmer and drier conditions during El Niño, >70% of all crop districts experience lower production and yields. Impacts of positive-IODs exhibit relatively more spatial variability. La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous increases in all production metrics across the crops, particularly benefiting traditional grains. Variations in impacts of ENSO and IOD on different cereals depend on where they are grown and differences in their sensitivity to climate conditions. We compare production metrics for each crop relative to rice in overlapping rainfed districts to isolate the influence of climate conditions. Maize production and yields experience larger reductions relative to rice, while pearl millet production and yields also experience reductions relative to rice during El Niños and positive-IODs. However, sorghum experiences enhanced production and harvested areas, and finger millet experiences enhanced production and yields. These findings suggest that transitioning from maize and rice to these traditional cereals could lower interannual production variability associated with natural climate variations.
{"title":"El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions simultaneously reduce the production of multiple cereals across India","authors":"Madhulika Gurazada, Sonali McDermid, Ruth DeFries, Kyle F Davis, Jitendra Singh and Deepti Singh","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a6f","url":null,"abstract":"Natural climate phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence the Indian monsoon and thereby the region’s agricultural systems. Understanding their influence can provide seasonal predictability of agricultural production metrics to inform decision-making and mitigate potential food security challenges. Here, we analyze the effects of ENSO and IOD on four agricultural production metrics (production, harvested area, irrigated area, and yields) for rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet across India from 1968 to 2015. El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in the production and yields of multiple crops. Impacts vary considerably by crop and geography. Maize and pearl millet experience large declines in both production and yields when compared to other grains in districts located in the northwest and southern peninsular regions. Associated with warmer and drier conditions during El Niño, >70% of all crop districts experience lower production and yields. Impacts of positive-IODs exhibit relatively more spatial variability. La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous increases in all production metrics across the crops, particularly benefiting traditional grains. Variations in impacts of ENSO and IOD on different cereals depend on where they are grown and differences in their sensitivity to climate conditions. We compare production metrics for each crop relative to rice in overlapping rainfed districts to isolate the influence of climate conditions. Maize production and yields experience larger reductions relative to rice, while pearl millet production and yields also experience reductions relative to rice during El Niños and positive-IODs. However, sorghum experiences enhanced production and harvested areas, and finger millet experiences enhanced production and yields. These findings suggest that transitioning from maize and rice to these traditional cereals could lower interannual production variability associated with natural climate variations.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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