Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea3
Kanishka B Narayan, Pralit Patel, Marshall Wise, Abigail Snyder, Kate Calvin, Neal Graham
Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.
{"title":"Seeing the forest for the trees: implementing dynamic representation of forest management and forest carbon in a long-term global multisector model","authors":"Kanishka B Narayan, Pralit Patel, Marshall Wise, Abigail Snyder, Kate Calvin, Neal Graham","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6ea3","url":null,"abstract":"Studies have found that understanding forest management is critical in understanding the interaction between the carbon cycle and the integrated human-Earth system. This makes effectively representing forest management decisions such as planting and harvesting important. Here, we implement a novel dynamic forest harvest model in a global state of the art multi-sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We implement an approach that explicitly tracks forest age and generates rotation ages for forest harvest that are responsive to changes in wood prices, changes in forest age and regional preferences for forest rotation. Furthermore, the forest sector in GCAM competes for investment with other land use types in the future years based on expected profit. Our baseline scenario results indicate that with the new forest harvest model, the current global wood product demand in GCAM can be met with minimal loss of old growth forest through the age-based harvest decisions. We find that economic pressure for deforestation and consequent loss of forest carbon is a bigger driver of global forest change than wood harvests, especially in developing regions. Under alternative scenarios where an economic value is placed on carbon across the terrestrial and energy systems, while there is an increase in forest plantations, there can be corresponding decreases in forest cover in some regions as forest land competes with land for bio-energy crops. When the carbon in forests is assigned a price, we find that the average rotation age for wood harvests can be reduced across regions to harvest forests in a more carbon efficient manner.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"179 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7476
Yuxin Wang, Bingyi Wu
Over the past decades, the Arctic-midlatitude linkage has been extensively explored. Recent studies have suggested that the characteristics of phasic evolutions in the relationship between the Arctic warming and midlatitudes remain elusive. Therefore, this study systematically investigates this issue by using running empirical orthogonal function and moving correlation, and the results show a phasic alternation process in the relationship between the tropospheric thickness over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) and East Asian temperature, characterized by a phasic weak (P1: 1979–2000)–strong (P2: 2001–2011)–weak (P3: 2012–2021) connection. Our results highlight that since the winter of 2010, despite the Arctic sea ice being in an exceptionally reduced phase and continuous Arctic warming, the Arctic-midlatitude connection has not exhibited sustained strengthening relative to P2 phase. Moreover, it is found that changes of the connection between the BKS warming and the East Asian winter Monsoon may contribute to this phasic evolution, and the Arctic Oscillation plays an important role in modulating their phasic evolutions. The conclusions of this study help to deepen our understanding of the evolution of the strength and weakness of the relationship between Arctic warming and climate variations in midlatitudes.
{"title":"Dominant features of phasic evolutions in the winter Arctic-midlatitude linkage since 1979","authors":"Yuxin Wang, Bingyi Wu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7476","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decades, the Arctic-midlatitude linkage has been extensively explored. Recent studies have suggested that the characteristics of phasic evolutions in the relationship between the Arctic warming and midlatitudes remain elusive. Therefore, this study systematically investigates this issue by using running empirical orthogonal function and moving correlation, and the results show a phasic alternation process in the relationship between the tropospheric thickness over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) and East Asian temperature, characterized by a phasic weak (P1: 1979–2000)–strong (P2: 2001–2011)–weak (P3: 2012–2021) connection. Our results highlight that since the winter of 2010, despite the Arctic sea ice being in an exceptionally reduced phase and continuous Arctic warming, the Arctic-midlatitude connection has not exhibited sustained strengthening relative to P2 phase. Moreover, it is found that changes of the connection between the BKS warming and the East Asian winter Monsoon may contribute to this phasic evolution, and the Arctic Oscillation plays an important role in modulating their phasic evolutions. The conclusions of this study help to deepen our understanding of the evolution of the strength and weakness of the relationship between Arctic warming and climate variations in midlatitudes.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7308
S van der Veer, R Hamed, H Karabiyik, J L Roskam
Weather extremes can drive substantial crop losses. Farm-level management strategies play a critical role in mitigating the impacts of and consequences for farmer livelihoods and food security. While the impacts of extreme weather on crop yields are well documented in recent studies, these predominantly focused on expansive geographical scales and commonly overlooked the critical role of management practices in modulating the dynamics of weather-crop sensitivities. We fill this gap in the literature by using a unique dataset that explores the timely relationship between extreme weather and crop yields at farm level in the Netherlands. We cover 10 types of crops and elucidate the role of soil types, irrigation and nutrient application in modulating the relationship between extreme weather and crops, by estimating fixed-effects regression models. We show substantial impacts from drought during the growing- and harvesting period and excessive precipitation during the planting- and growing period. Severe droughts show significant (p⩽0.05) reductions in yield for all crops, and lead to yield reductions up to 24 percent relative to average yields during the growing period. Meanwhile, eight crops show significant reductions in yield due to severe water excess during the planting period, with yield reductions up to 18 percent. Soils such as sand or loess amplify the negative impact of drought on crop yield, while softening the impact of excessive precipitation. Irrigation and to a lesser extent nutrient application are shown to moderately decrease the impact of extreme weather on crop yield. Our findings contribute valuable insights to guide local adaptation priorities which are critical given the projected increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather under climate change.
{"title":"Mitigating the effects of extreme weather on crop yields: insights from farm management strategies in the Netherlands","authors":"S van der Veer, R Hamed, H Karabiyik, J L Roskam","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7308","url":null,"abstract":"Weather extremes can drive substantial crop losses. Farm-level management strategies play a critical role in mitigating the impacts of and consequences for farmer livelihoods and food security. While the impacts of extreme weather on crop yields are well documented in recent studies, these predominantly focused on expansive geographical scales and commonly overlooked the critical role of management practices in modulating the dynamics of weather-crop sensitivities. We fill this gap in the literature by using a unique dataset that explores the timely relationship between extreme weather and crop yields at farm level in the Netherlands. We cover 10 types of crops and elucidate the role of soil types, irrigation and nutrient application in modulating the relationship between extreme weather and crops, by estimating fixed-effects regression models. We show substantial impacts from drought during the growing- and harvesting period and excessive precipitation during the planting- and growing period. Severe droughts show significant (<inline-formula>\u0000<tex-math><?CDATA $punicode{x2A7D}0.05$?></tex-math><mml:math overflow=\"scroll\"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:mtext>⩽</mml:mtext><mml:mn>0.05</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href=\"erlad7308ieqn1.gif\"></inline-graphic></inline-formula>) reductions in yield for all crops, and lead to yield reductions up to 24 percent relative to average yields during the growing period. Meanwhile, eight crops show significant reductions in yield due to severe water excess during the planting period, with yield reductions up to 18 percent. Soils such as sand or loess amplify the negative impact of drought on crop yield, while softening the impact of excessive precipitation. Irrigation and to a lesser extent nutrient application are shown to moderately decrease the impact of extreme weather on crop yield. Our findings contribute valuable insights to guide local adaptation priorities which are critical given the projected increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather under climate change.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a73
Margaret M Busse, Michael A McKibben, William Stringfellow, Patrick Dobson, Jennifer R Stokes-Draut
Saline brines currently being brought to the surface to produce geothermal energy in the Salton Sea region of California contain high concentrations of lithium that could potentially be extracted before the brine is reinjected back into the geothermal reservoir. This would create a new supply chain of domestically sourced lithium for the United States to produce lithium-based batteries that will help drive the transition to a renewable-based energy grid. Plans to expand geothermal production along with lithium extraction are being considered in the Salton Sea known geothermal resource area. We discuss water availability and quality issues and potential concerns about water pollution associated with this geothermal expansion and lithium production in the context of potential future restrictions on water extractions from the Colorado River Basin. We estimate that water demand for currently proposed geothermal production and lithium extraction facilities only accounts for ∼4% of the historical water supply in the region. Regional water allocation will be more impacted by the proposed cuts to the region’s water allocation from the Colorado River between now and 2050 than by expansion of geothermal production with associated lithium extraction. Accurately planning for water needs in the future will require more specific information about water demands of the lithium extraction and refining processes.
{"title":"Impact of geothermal expansion and lithium extraction in the Salton Sea known geothermal resource area (SS-KGRA) on local water resources","authors":"Margaret M Busse, Michael A McKibben, William Stringfellow, Patrick Dobson, Jennifer R Stokes-Draut","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a73","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a73","url":null,"abstract":"Saline brines currently being brought to the surface to produce geothermal energy in the Salton Sea region of California contain high concentrations of lithium that could potentially be extracted before the brine is reinjected back into the geothermal reservoir. This would create a new supply chain of domestically sourced lithium for the United States to produce lithium-based batteries that will help drive the transition to a renewable-based energy grid. Plans to expand geothermal production along with lithium extraction are being considered in the Salton Sea known geothermal resource area. We discuss water availability and quality issues and potential concerns about water pollution associated with this geothermal expansion and lithium production in the context of potential future restrictions on water extractions from the Colorado River Basin. We estimate that water demand for currently proposed geothermal production and lithium extraction facilities only accounts for ∼4% of the historical water supply in the region. Regional water allocation will be more impacted by the proposed cuts to the region’s water allocation from the Colorado River between now and 2050 than by expansion of geothermal production with associated lithium extraction. Accurately planning for water needs in the future will require more specific information about water demands of the lithium extraction and refining processes.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7520
Akash Verma, Subimal Ghosh
The impact of soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on gross primary productivity (GPP) variability in ecosystems is a topic of significant interest. Previous studies have predominantly focused on real-time associations between SM, VPD, and carbon uptake, attributing SM as the principal driver of GPP variability due to its direct and indirect effects through VPD. Using an information theory-based process network approach, we discovered that the influence of past VPD, mediated through its effects on SM, emerges as the primary driver of GPP variability across tropical regions. The past VPD conditions influence GPP directly and also affect SM in real-time alongside GPP, which subsequently impacts GPP variability. Examining land-atmosphere feedback using information theory reveals that past VPD conditions influence SM, but not the reverse. These causal structures explain the consistent decline in GPP with increasing VPD trends observed in tropical regions, which are not consistent with SM trends. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering the influence of past VPD mediated by SM when analyzing complex land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions.
{"title":"Unveiling the role of past vapor pressure deficit through soil moisture in driving tropical vegetation productivity","authors":"Akash Verma, Subimal Ghosh","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7520","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on gross primary productivity (GPP) variability in ecosystems is a topic of significant interest. Previous studies have predominantly focused on real-time associations between SM, VPD, and carbon uptake, attributing SM as the principal driver of GPP variability due to its direct and indirect effects through VPD. Using an information theory-based process network approach, we discovered that the influence of past VPD, mediated through its effects on SM, emerges as the primary driver of GPP variability across tropical regions. The past VPD conditions influence GPP directly and also affect SM in real-time alongside GPP, which subsequently impacts GPP variability. Examining land-atmosphere feedback using information theory reveals that past VPD conditions influence SM, but not the reverse. These causal structures explain the consistent decline in GPP with increasing VPD trends observed in tropical regions, which are not consistent with SM trends. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering the influence of past VPD mediated by SM when analyzing complex land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7521
Tarang Khangaonkar, Brendan R Carter, Lakshitha Premathilake, Su Kyong Yun, Wenfei Ni, Mary Margaret Stoll, Nicholas D Ward, Lenaïg G Hemery, Carolina Torres Sanchez, Chinmayee V Subban, Mallory C Ringham, Matthew D Eisaman, Todd Pelman, Krti Tallam, Richard A Feely
Marine CO2 removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m−3 and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO2 flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr−1) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km2) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO2 (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m−2 yr−1, higher than the 63 mmol m−2 yr−1 required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO2 yr−1. It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO2 yr−1 was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO2 yr−1 (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO2 using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.
{"title":"Mixing and dilution controls on marine CO2 removal using alkalinity enhancement","authors":"Tarang Khangaonkar, Brendan R Carter, Lakshitha Premathilake, Su Kyong Yun, Wenfei Ni, Mary Margaret Stoll, Nicholas D Ward, Lenaïg G Hemery, Carolina Torres Sanchez, Chinmayee V Subban, Mallory C Ringham, Matthew D Eisaman, Todd Pelman, Krti Tallam, Richard A Feely","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7521","url":null,"abstract":"Marine CO<sub>2</sub> removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m<sup>−3</sup> and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr<sup>−1</sup>) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km<sup>2</sup>) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO<sub>2</sub> (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup>, higher than the 63 mmol m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>. It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup> was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup> (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO<sub>2</sub> using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"275 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7045
Magdalena Szczykulska, Chris Huntingford, Elizabeth Cooper, Jonathan G Evans
Concerns exist about the viability of food security across Europe due to multiple, potentially adverse drivers. These include economic, political and climate forcing factors, all of which require quantification. Here, we focus on the climate forcing, and in particular, the soil moisture change component which crucially determines water availability for crop uptake. We estimate future soil moisture levels at 34 sites of the UK COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System (COSMOS-UK) network. We do this by combining three platforms: the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model, field-scale soil moisture observations from the COSMOS-UK stations and 2.2 km convection-permitting UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). We use COSMOS-UK data to optimise key soil moisture-related parameters in the JULES model, based on its performance in the contemporary period. We then force the calibrated model with UKCP18 data to produce future soil moisture estimates. We evaluate the modelled soil moisture for an average soil depth between 0 and 35 cm to match the depth of soil moisture observations. Our main conclusions concern future soil moisture droughts which we compare with equivalent events in the historical period, 1982–2000. We find that on average across all sites, there is an increase in the frequency of future extreme soil moisture drought events of duration above 90 days. In 2062–80, such frequency increase of between 0.1 and 0.6 events per year (equivalent to at least 2 and up to 12 additional events in a 20-year period) is expected. We also show that, in 2062–80, there is an increased risk of high or more intense soil moisture drought conditions in months between May and November, with months between June and October being at especially high risk. The UKCP18 data corresponds to a high-emissions future described by the RCP8.5 scenario.
{"title":"Future increases in soil moisture drought frequency at UK monitoring sites: merging the JULES land model with observations and convection-permitting UK climate projections","authors":"Magdalena Szczykulska, Chris Huntingford, Elizabeth Cooper, Jonathan G Evans","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7045","url":null,"abstract":"Concerns exist about the viability of food security across Europe due to multiple, potentially adverse drivers. These include economic, political and climate forcing factors, all of which require quantification. Here, we focus on the climate forcing, and in particular, the soil moisture change component which crucially determines water availability for crop uptake. We estimate future soil moisture levels at 34 sites of the UK COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System (COSMOS-UK) network. We do this by combining three platforms: the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model, field-scale soil moisture observations from the COSMOS-UK stations and 2.2 km convection-permitting UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). We use COSMOS-UK data to optimise key soil moisture-related parameters in the JULES model, based on its performance in the contemporary period. We then force the calibrated model with UKCP18 data to produce future soil moisture estimates. We evaluate the modelled soil moisture for an average soil depth between 0 and 35 cm to match the depth of soil moisture observations. Our main conclusions concern future soil moisture droughts which we compare with equivalent events in the historical period, 1982–2000. We find that on average across all sites, there is an increase in the frequency of future extreme soil moisture drought events of duration above 90 days. In 2062–80, such frequency increase of between 0.1 and 0.6 events per year (equivalent to at least 2 and up to 12 additional events in a 20-year period) is expected. We also show that, in 2062–80, there is an increased risk of high or more intense soil moisture drought conditions in months between May and November, with months between June and October being at especially high risk. The UKCP18 data corresponds to a high-emissions future described by the RCP8.5 scenario.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb7
Kshitij Tayal, Arvind Renganathan, Dan Lu
Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.
准确的流量预测对于了解气候对水资源的影响和制定有效的适应战略至关重要。使用来自多个流域的数据的全球长短期记忆（LSTM）模型可以加强对溪流的预测，但获取详细的流域属性仍然是一项挑战。为了克服这一难题，我们引入了地理视觉转换器（ViT）-LSTM 模型，这是一种新颖的方法，通过将遥感得出的流域属性与 ViT 架构相结合来丰富 LSTM 预测。我们的方法应用于美国毗连地区的 531 个盆地，在时间和时空外推方案中都表现出了卓越的预测准确性。Geo-ViT-LSTM 标志着地表建模的重大进步，为更好地了解环境对气候变化的反应提供了更全面、更有效的工具。
{"title":"Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data","authors":"Kshitij Tayal, Arvind Renganathan, Dan Lu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6fb7","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7049
Guiyan Han, Graham D Quartly, Ge Chen, Jie Yang
The influence of mesoscale eddies on chlorophyll (Chl) has received significant attention due to Chl being a proxy for phytoplankton, which plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. Solely relying on the analysis of satellite-observed Chl poses challenges in determining the phytoplankton response to mesoscale eddies. To address this, our study takes a collaborative approach, utilizing satellite-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and chlorophyll anomalies (CHLA) to comprehensively investigate the dynamical-biological processes associated with eddies in the subtropical and mid-latitude North Atlantic. In the subtropics, the patterns in CHLA and SSTA predominantly exhibit a dipole nature, with the dipole component providing more than 70% of the explained variance (EV). This suggests that eddy stirring is the dominant mechanism driving the observed anomaly patterns. Conversely, in the mid-latitudes, the monopole components (TM) explain more than 60% of the EV, implying a more influential role for eddy trapping and vertical modulations. The signs of the TM of eddy SSTA persist throughout their lifetime, being consistent with the lowering (raising) of isopycnals within AEs (CEs). However, the subtropical CHLA response is higher in AEs than CEs, indicating additional factors, such as eddy-induced Ekman pumping and/or mixing to a deeper level may be important. This finding is also corroborated by subsurface observations from Argo floats. At mid-latitudes, there is a clear inverse correspondence between the CHLA and mixed layer depth. In contrast, no significant correlation is observed in the subtropics, except during winter when a positive relationship emerges. These patterns suggest that phytoplankton exhibit highly diverse responses to the physical dynamics associated with eddies. Our work offers a method to estimate eddy dynamical-biological impacts on phytoplankton using satellite products, compensating for the limitations of in-situ observations. It also reveals potential contributions to marine primary production, global carbon cycles, and the development of biogeochemical models.
{"title":"Satellite-observed SST and chlorophyll reveal contrasting dynamical-biological effects of mesoscale eddies in the North Atlantic","authors":"Guiyan Han, Graham D Quartly, Ge Chen, Jie Yang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7049","url":null,"abstract":"The influence of mesoscale eddies on chlorophyll (Chl) has received significant attention due to Chl being a proxy for phytoplankton, which plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. Solely relying on the analysis of satellite-observed Chl poses challenges in determining the phytoplankton response to mesoscale eddies. To address this, our study takes a collaborative approach, utilizing satellite-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and chlorophyll anomalies (CHLA) to comprehensively investigate the dynamical-biological processes associated with eddies in the subtropical and mid-latitude North Atlantic. In the subtropics, the patterns in CHLA and SSTA predominantly exhibit a dipole nature, with the dipole component providing more than 70% of the explained variance (EV). This suggests that eddy stirring is the dominant mechanism driving the observed anomaly patterns. Conversely, in the mid-latitudes, the monopole components (<italic toggle=\"yes\">T<sub>M</sub></italic>) explain more than 60% of the EV, implying a more influential role for eddy trapping and vertical modulations. The signs of the <italic toggle=\"yes\">T<sub>M</sub></italic> of eddy SSTA persist throughout their lifetime, being consistent with the lowering (raising) of isopycnals within AEs (CEs). However, the subtropical CHLA response is higher in AEs than CEs, indicating additional factors, such as eddy-induced Ekman pumping and/or mixing to a deeper level may be important. This finding is also corroborated by subsurface observations from Argo floats. At mid-latitudes, there is a clear inverse correspondence between the CHLA and mixed layer depth. In contrast, no significant correlation is observed in the subtropics, except during winter when a positive relationship emerges. These patterns suggest that phytoplankton exhibit highly diverse responses to the physical dynamics associated with eddies. Our work offers a method to estimate eddy dynamical-biological impacts on phytoplankton using satellite products, compensating for the limitations of in-situ observations. It also reveals potential contributions to marine primary production, global carbon cycles, and the development of biogeochemical models.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a70
Dongyang Han, Pan Liu, Lu Zhang, Lei Cheng, Qian Cheng, Xiaojing Zhang, Weibo Liu, Jiabo Yin
The number of dams globally has increased dramatically over the past few decades, providing reliable water resources by regulating natural streamflow. However, assessing the impact of dams on natural streamflow at a large scale remains a challenge due to lack of dam storage variation data. Here we analyzed flow regulation by dams from 1985 to 2014 over 153 basins globally using satellite remote sensing data. Two-thirds of global basins are regulated below 10%, and the high degree of regulation is mainly distributed in underdeveloped regions such as Central Asia and East Asia. Only 27% of basins have an increasing regulation trend from 1985 to 2014 and no basins show a decreasing trend. The gross domestic production, climatic water deficit and runoff show significant correlations with the flow regulation. We provide a global scale assessment of flow regulation by dams to support global water resources management.
{"title":"Quantifying the impact of dams on global streamflow over the period of 1985–2014","authors":"Dongyang Han, Pan Liu, Lu Zhang, Lei Cheng, Qian Cheng, Xiaojing Zhang, Weibo Liu, Jiabo Yin","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6a70","url":null,"abstract":"The number of dams globally has increased dramatically over the past few decades, providing reliable water resources by regulating natural streamflow. However, assessing the impact of dams on natural streamflow at a large scale remains a challenge due to lack of dam storage variation data. Here we analyzed flow regulation by dams from 1985 to 2014 over 153 basins globally using satellite remote sensing data. Two-thirds of global basins are regulated below 10%, and the high degree of regulation is mainly distributed in underdeveloped regions such as Central Asia and East Asia. Only 27% of basins have an increasing regulation trend from 1985 to 2014 and no basins show a decreasing trend. The gross domestic production, climatic water deficit and runoff show significant correlations with the flow regulation. We provide a global scale assessment of flow regulation by dams to support global water resources management.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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