Iran is the perennial “elephant in the room” of international gas trade. The country could well become, one day, a major game changer of international gas markets but today its potential still remains fundamentally untapped due to a number of geopolitical and commercial reasons. Iran owns the first largest proven gas reserves in the world, but since 1997 it is basically a net-importer of gas. This paradoxical situation is due to a number of internal and external factors, the main of which relates to the international isolation of the country due to the well-known international dispute over its nuclear program. For this reason, if the positive outcome of the recent nuclear talks turns into a complete nuclear deal, great opportunities will likely open up in Iran also with regard to the gas market. The aim of this article is to analyze the country’s gas outlook in the aftermath of a potential nuclear deal, looking at the potential production trends, at the potential export options, but also at the political and commercial barriers that such a development will likely have to face. In fact, a full resolution of the nuclear issue will unlikely automatically change the Iranian gas market in the short term, as a number of commercial issues will continue to remain on the table. In other words, the “elephant” will need a bit of time to move. However, it is sure that its movement will ultimately have a profound and long-lasting impact on international gas markets.
{"title":"The Future of Iran's Gas Market after the (Potential) Nuclear Deal","authors":"S. Tagliapietra","doi":"10.1406/78613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1406/78613","url":null,"abstract":"Iran is the perennial “elephant in the room” of international gas trade. The country could well become, one day, a major game changer of international gas markets but today its potential still remains fundamentally untapped due to a number of geopolitical and commercial reasons. Iran owns the first largest proven gas reserves in the world, but since 1997 it is basically a net-importer of gas. This paradoxical situation is due to a number of internal and external factors, the main of which relates to the international isolation of the country due to the well-known international dispute over its nuclear program. For this reason, if the positive outcome of the recent nuclear talks turns into a complete nuclear deal, great opportunities will likely open up in Iran also with regard to the gas market. The aim of this article is to analyze the country’s gas outlook in the aftermath of a potential nuclear deal, looking at the potential production trends, at the potential export options, but also at the political and commercial barriers that such a development will likely have to face. In fact, a full resolution of the nuclear issue will unlikely automatically change the Iranian gas market in the short term, as a number of commercial issues will continue to remain on the table. In other words, the “elephant” will need a bit of time to move. However, it is sure that its movement will ultimately have a profound and long-lasting impact on international gas markets.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124995358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we use the Hodrick-Prescott filter for analysing global temperature data. We are especially concerned with a reliable estimation of the trend component at the end of the data sample. To this end we employ time-varying values for the penalization parameter. The optimal values are derived by a comparison with an ideal filter. The method is applied to temperature data for the northern hemisphere from 1850 to 2012. The main result is that for the optimal specification of the flexible penalization the trend component of temperature is still increasing, possibly with a somewhat lower pace.
{"title":"The Hodrick-Prescott Filter with a Time-Varying Penalization Parameter. An Application for the Trend Estimation of Global Temperature.","authors":"A. Blöchl, G. Flaig","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2390589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2390589","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we use the Hodrick-Prescott filter for analysing global temperature data. We are especially concerned with a reliable estimation of the trend component at the end of the data sample. To this end we employ time-varying values for the penalization parameter. The optimal values are derived by a comparison with an ideal filter. The method is applied to temperature data for the northern hemisphere from 1850 to 2012. The main result is that for the optimal specification of the flexible penalization the trend component of temperature is still increasing, possibly with a somewhat lower pace.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133410447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The April, 2013 tragic Boston Marathon bombings by two United States Citizens of Russian origin was a demonstration of the weakness of counter terrorism measures and lapses in the operational mechanisms of the US-Russia counter terrorism task force. The paper uses theoretical and practical inferences to provide a comparative analysis of terrorist operations in the United States and the Russian Federation. Whilst the theoretical aspect outlines a background of terror groups in the US and Russia and their operational strategies, the practical approach provides a comparative analysis of counter-terrorism measures in the US and Russia, terrorist techniques and implications on the joint US-Russia counter terrorism policy. The effectiveness of the US-Russia counter terrorism task force largely depends on the willingness to adopt define common counter-terrorism mechanisms through defensive and preemptive lenses.
{"title":"Home Grown Terrorism in the United States (US): Causes, Affiliations and Policy Implications","authors":"Ashlie Perry, Binneh S. Minteh","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2518616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2518616","url":null,"abstract":"The April, 2013 tragic Boston Marathon bombings by two United States Citizens of Russian origin was a demonstration of the weakness of counter terrorism measures and lapses in the operational mechanisms of the US-Russia counter terrorism task force. The paper uses theoretical and practical inferences to provide a comparative analysis of terrorist operations in the United States and the Russian Federation. Whilst the theoretical aspect outlines a background of terror groups in the US and Russia and their operational strategies, the practical approach provides a comparative analysis of counter-terrorism measures in the US and Russia, terrorist techniques and implications on the joint US-Russia counter terrorism policy. The effectiveness of the US-Russia counter terrorism task force largely depends on the willingness to adopt define common counter-terrorism mechanisms through defensive and preemptive lenses.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131139401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 2000년 UN 새천년개발목표(MDGs: Millenium Development Goals) 채택 이래로 원조의 효과성 증진을 위한 노력이 꾸준히 이루어져 왔다. 또한 OECD는 2005년 파리선언과 2008년 아크라 행동계획을 통하여 공적개발원조(ODA: Official Development Assistance)의 효과성 제고를 위한 5대 원칙을 채택하고 수원국의 개발과 성과를 중심으로 하는 원조정책의 중요성을 강조한 바 있다. 중점협력국 제도는 최근 국제사회가 점차 더 중요하게 고려하고 있는 원조의 효과성 제고에도 적합한 제도로 평가되고 있어 공여국 사이에서 널리 운영되고 있다. 중점협력국 제도는 원조 정책의 한 형태로서, 공여국들이 몇몇의 원조대상 국가 또는 지역을 우선 대상국 또는 우선 대상지역으로 선정하고 대상 수원국 또는 지역들의 개발목표에 따라 개별적이고 집중적으로 지원하는 방식을 의미한다. 공여국들은 중점협력국 제도를 통하여 제한된 자원을 대상 국가와 개발 필요에 따라 적절하게 배분하여 효율적인 원조정책을 운영할 수 있도록 도와준다. 또한 사전적으로 수원국의 개발요구와 필요를 충분히 고려하여 원조계획을 수립하고 지속적인 성과 관리를 통하여 효과성을 제고시킨다는 점에서도 높은 평가를 받고 있어, 대부분의 OECD 국가들이 중점협력국을 선정하여 운영한다. 중점협력국 제도는 공여국의 전체적인 원조체계의 틀 속에서 한 부분으로 존재하기 때문에, 따라서 공여국의 장기적 원조 목표와 비전 그리고 조직체계가 중점협력국 제도 운영에 상당한 영향을 미친다. 다시 말해서 중점협력국 제도는 궁극적으로 공여국이 추구하는 장기적이고 거시적인 원조정책의 일환이자 하나의 정책수단이며, 그 자체가 최종의 목적이 될 수 없다. 그러므로 공여국의 장기적 원조 목표와 비전, 그리고 전체적인 운영체계는 중점협력국 운영과 관리체계에 상당한 영향을 주는 요소이다. 구체적으로 중점협력국 제도는 크게 중점협력국 선정과 운영으로 구분될 수 있다. 중점협력국을 선정할 때에는 공여국의 개발정책 목표, 수원국에 대한 분석 및 정치외교적 관계에 관한 고려 등과 같이 공여국 입장에서의 기준과 수원국의 개발정책 의지, 원조 필요 분야와 사항, 수원국의 거버넌스 실태와 과거 경험 등과 같은 수원국 입장에서의 기준이 모두 고려된다. 선정 이후의 운영은 이 두 기준의 접점을 찾고 원조 효과를 극대화시키는 일련의 원조계획 수립, 이행 및 평가 과정으로 이루어지며, 그 핵심에는 국가협력전략(CPS: Country Partnership Strategy) 문서가 있다. 중점협력국 운영제도를 이해하기 위해서는, 공여국 원조정책의 목표와 비전 그리고 전반적인 조직체계에 관한 거시적인 밑그림과 함께, 공여국 정부의 어떤 기관이 어떠한 기준과 방식으로 국가협력전략 문서를 작성하여 원조계획을 수립하는지, 그리고 이를 누가 어떻게 운영하고 평가하며 성과관리를 하는지에 관한 미시적이고 실무적 차원의 분석이 수반되어야 할 것이다. English Abstract: In implementing their global commitments such as the principles of the Paris Declaration in 2005 and the Accra Agenda for Action in 2008, donor countries and international development organizations have long been concerned about ways to improve the effectiveness of their international development programs and aid policies. Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), sometimes referred to as Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), is a widely adopted policy instrument for the purpose of designing an effective and efficient aid program at the country level. As a result, most of the OECD DAC countries are actively adopting the CPS policy by carefully selecting priority recipient countries and establishing detailed and practical CPS implementation plans with guidelines. This study basically aims to examine such country-level aid strategies as CPS, with a particular focus on its operation and management framework of three selected countries - Spain, France and New Zealand. Each of the cases has its own merit that is considered in the study, when compared to Korea’s current CPS framework and management.
自2000年通过《联合国千年发展目标》(MDGs: Millenium Development Goals)以来，不断努力提高援助的效果。另外，OECD通过2005年的《巴黎宣言》和2008年的阿克拉行动计划，采纳了提高政府开发援助(ODA: Official Development Assistance)效果的5大原则，并强调了以受援国的开发和成果为中心的援助政策的重要性。重点合作国制度被评价为适合提高最近国际社会逐渐重视的援助效果的制度，因此在提供国之间广泛运营。重点合作国制度是援助政策的一种形式，指提供国将几个援助对象国家或地区选定为优先对象国或优先对象地区，并根据援助受援国或地区的开发目标进行个别、集中的援助。提供国通过重点合作国制度，将有限的资源根据对象国家和开发需要进行适当分配，帮助其运营有效的援助政策。另外，事前充分考虑受援国的开发要求和需要，制定援助计划，通过持续的成果管理提高效果，这一点也得到高度评价，大部分OECD国家都选择运营重点合作国。重点合作国制度是在提供国整体援助体系框架中作为一部分存在的，因此，提供国的长期援助目标和前景以及组织体系将对重点合作国制度的运营产生相当大的影响。换句话说，重点合作国制度最终是提供国追求的长期、宏观援助政策的一环，也是一种政策手段，其本身不可能成为最终目的。因此，提供国的长期援助目标和前景以及整体运营体系是对重点合作国运营和管理体系产生相当大影响的因素。具体来说，重点合作国制度可分为重点合作国选定和运营。选定重点合作国时,援助国的开发政策目标,对水原局的分析和政治外交关系等一起考虑关于标准和水原国在援助国立场的需要开发政策意志,援助领域和事项,水原国的治理状况和过去经验等水原局中的标准都考虑的立场。选定后的运营将通过一系列援助计划的建立、执行和评估过程来寻找这两个标准的交点，并将援助效果极大化，其核心是国家合作战略(CPS: Country Partnership Strategy)文件。重点合作国家运营制度,为了理解,援助国援助政策的目标和梦想,还有关于整体组织体系的宏观蓝图的同时,援助国政府的任何机关以什么样的标准和方式国家合作战略文件起草的,援助建立,以及他予谁如何运营和评价关于是否把成果管理的微观业务层面的分析应该伴随。english abstract:In implementing their global commitments such as the principles of the Paris Declaration In 2005 and the Accra Agenda for Action In 2008;donor countries and international development organizations have long been concerned about ways to improve the effectiveness of their international development programs and aid policies。Country Partnership Strategy (CPS)， sometimes referred to as Country Assistance Strategy (CAS);is a widely adopted policy instrument for the purpose of designing an effective and efficient aid program at the country level。as a result,OECD DAC countries are actively adopting the CPS policy by carefully selecting priority recipient countries and establishing detailed and practical CPS implementation plans withguidelines。This study basically aims to examine such country-level aid strategies as CPS, with a particular focus on its operation and management framework of three selected countries - Spain;france and new zealand。Each of the cases has its own merit that is considered in the study, when compared to Korea ' s current CPS framework and management。
{"title":"주요 선진공여국의 중점협력국 운영 및 관리체계 사례연구 (Case Studies on the Operation and Managing Framework of Country Partnership Strategy)","authors":"Chong-sup Kim, Yeongseop Rhee","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2447538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2447538","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 2000년 UN 새천년개발목표(MDGs: Millenium Development Goals) 채택 이래로 원조의 효과성 증진을 위한 노력이 꾸준히 이루어져 왔다. 또한 OECD는 2005년 파리선언과 2008년 아크라 행동계획을 통하여 공적개발원조(ODA: Official Development Assistance)의 효과성 제고를 위한 5대 원칙을 채택하고 수원국의 개발과 성과를 중심으로 하는 원조정책의 중요성을 강조한 바 있다. 중점협력국 제도는 최근 국제사회가 점차 더 중요하게 고려하고 있는 원조의 효과성 제고에도 적합한 제도로 평가되고 있어 공여국 사이에서 널리 운영되고 있다. 중점협력국 제도는 원조 정책의 한 형태로서, 공여국들이 몇몇의 원조대상 국가 또는 지역을 우선 대상국 또는 우선 대상지역으로 선정하고 대상 수원국 또는 지역들의 개발목표에 따라 개별적이고 집중적으로 지원하는 방식을 의미한다. 공여국들은 중점협력국 제도를 통하여 제한된 자원을 대상 국가와 개발 필요에 따라 적절하게 배분하여 효율적인 원조정책을 운영할 수 있도록 도와준다. 또한 사전적으로 수원국의 개발요구와 필요를 충분히 고려하여 원조계획을 수립하고 지속적인 성과 관리를 통하여 효과성을 제고시킨다는 점에서도 높은 평가를 받고 있어, 대부분의 OECD 국가들이 중점협력국을 선정하여 운영한다. 중점협력국 제도는 공여국의 전체적인 원조체계의 틀 속에서 한 부분으로 존재하기 때문에, 따라서 공여국의 장기적 원조 목표와 비전 그리고 조직체계가 중점협력국 제도 운영에 상당한 영향을 미친다. 다시 말해서 중점협력국 제도는 궁극적으로 공여국이 추구하는 장기적이고 거시적인 원조정책의 일환이자 하나의 정책수단이며, 그 자체가 최종의 목적이 될 수 없다. 그러므로 공여국의 장기적 원조 목표와 비전, 그리고 전체적인 운영체계는 중점협력국 운영과 관리체계에 상당한 영향을 주는 요소이다. 구체적으로 중점협력국 제도는 크게 중점협력국 선정과 운영으로 구분될 수 있다. 중점협력국을 선정할 때에는 공여국의 개발정책 목표, 수원국에 대한 분석 및 정치외교적 관계에 관한 고려 등과 같이 공여국 입장에서의 기준과 수원국의 개발정책 의지, 원조 필요 분야와 사항, 수원국의 거버넌스 실태와 과거 경험 등과 같은 수원국 입장에서의 기준이 모두 고려된다. 선정 이후의 운영은 이 두 기준의 접점을 찾고 원조 효과를 극대화시키는 일련의 원조계획 수립, 이행 및 평가 과정으로 이루어지며, 그 핵심에는 국가협력전략(CPS: Country Partnership Strategy) 문서가 있다. 중점협력국 운영제도를 이해하기 위해서는, 공여국 원조정책의 목표와 비전 그리고 전반적인 조직체계에 관한 거시적인 밑그림과 함께, 공여국 정부의 어떤 기관이 어떠한 기준과 방식으로 국가협력전략 문서를 작성하여 원조계획을 수립하는지, 그리고 이를 누가 어떻게 운영하고 평가하며 성과관리를 하는지에 관한 미시적이고 실무적 차원의 분석이 수반되어야 할 것이다. English Abstract: In implementing their global commitments such as the principles of the Paris Declaration in 2005 and the Accra Agenda for Action in 2008, donor countries and international development organizations have long been concerned about ways to improve the effectiveness of their international development programs and aid policies. Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), sometimes referred to as Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), is a widely adopted policy instrument for the purpose of designing an effective and efficient aid program at the country level. As a result, most of the OECD DAC countries are actively adopting the CPS policy by carefully selecting priority recipient countries and establishing detailed and practical CPS implementation plans with guidelines. This study basically aims to examine such country-level aid strategies as CPS, with a particular focus on its operation and management framework of three selected countries - Spain, France and New Zealand. Each of the cases has its own merit that is considered in the study, when compared to Korea’s current CPS framework and management.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116817006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International trade policy analysis has tended to focus on the production side of general equilibrium, with policies such as a tariff or carbon tax affecting international and internal income distributions through a Heckscher-Ohlin nexus of factor intensities and factor endowments. Here I move away from this structure to focus on demand, preferences, and endogenous policies set in a cooperative or non-cooperative manner. The specific context I choose is an international environmental externality such as carbon emissions, and I assume a high income elasticity of demand for environmental quality. I analyze how per-capita income levels of and differences between two countries affect their abatement efforts in a non-cooperative policy-setting game. This outcome can then be used as a disagreement point to analyze cooperative Nash bargaining. In both outcomes, the poor country makes a lower abatement effort in equilibrium; indeed, it may make none at all and cooperative bargaining with only abatement levels as an instrument may offer no gains. Other features include a novel terms-of-trade externality in which an abating country passes on a part of its abatement cost to its trading partner, in which case the non-cooperative and cooperative outcomes are identical under special symmetry assumptions. When per-capita income differences are large, the poor country may be worse off when the rich country abates. Finally, I examine “issue linking” in international bargaining, in which one country is both large and rich, and hence has both a high tariff and a high abatement effort in a non-cooperative equilibrium.
{"title":"Per-Capita Income as a Determinant of International Trade and Environmental Policies","authors":"J. Markusen","doi":"10.3386/W19754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W19754","url":null,"abstract":"International trade policy analysis has tended to focus on the production side of general equilibrium, with policies such as a tariff or carbon tax affecting international and internal income distributions through a Heckscher-Ohlin nexus of factor intensities and factor endowments. Here I move away from this structure to focus on demand, preferences, and endogenous policies set in a cooperative or non-cooperative manner. The specific context I choose is an international environmental externality such as carbon emissions, and I assume a high income elasticity of demand for environmental quality. I analyze how per-capita income levels of and differences between two countries affect their abatement efforts in a non-cooperative policy-setting game. This outcome can then be used as a disagreement point to analyze cooperative Nash bargaining. In both outcomes, the poor country makes a lower abatement effort in equilibrium; indeed, it may make none at all and cooperative bargaining with only abatement levels as an instrument may offer no gains. Other features include a novel terms-of-trade externality in which an abating country passes on a part of its abatement cost to its trading partner, in which case the non-cooperative and cooperative outcomes are identical under special symmetry assumptions. When per-capita income differences are large, the poor country may be worse off when the rich country abates. Finally, I examine “issue linking” in international bargaining, in which one country is both large and rich, and hence has both a high tariff and a high abatement effort in a non-cooperative equilibrium.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121724020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To measure the effectiveness of programs with multiple outcomes, I combine multidimensional poverty measures with difference-in-difference matching estimators. I apply this technique on an anti-poverty program and show it is a more comprehensive measure of poverty reduction than a unidimensional measure.
{"title":"An Exercise to Evaluate an Anti-Poverty Program with Multiple Outcomes Using Program Evaluation","authors":"T. Islam","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2294574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2294574","url":null,"abstract":"To measure the effectiveness of programs with multiple outcomes, I combine multidimensional poverty measures with difference-in-difference matching estimators. I apply this technique on an anti-poverty program and show it is a more comprehensive measure of poverty reduction than a unidimensional measure.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"123 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127053616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we present a theoretical model which, focusing on the quality of information transmission between the IMF and the WB, analyzes the sources of the expected loss in the overall performance of the two institutions relative to the first best outcome, which is characterized by centralized decision and perfect information. In particular, given the Bank-Fund strong complementarities, we show that strategic communication is indeed the primary source of loss for the two institutions. A testable implication of the model is to relate Bank-Fund's performance to their willingness (or ability) to communicate. We find evidence that a Bank-Fund simultaneous loan is beneficial to growth and, consistently with the theory, such beneficial effect is reduced by factors preventing full communication, such as the degree of Bank-Fund competition and the salience of their private information.
{"title":"Does it Take Two to Tango? Improving Cooperation between the IMF and the World Bank: Theory and Empirical Evidence","authors":"S. Marchesi, Laura Sabani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2399001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2399001","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we present a theoretical model which, focusing on the quality of information transmission between the IMF and the WB, analyzes the sources of the expected loss in the overall performance of the two institutions relative to the first best outcome, which is characterized by centralized decision and perfect information. In particular, given the Bank-Fund strong complementarities, we show that strategic communication is indeed the primary source of loss for the two institutions. A testable implication of the model is to relate Bank-Fund's performance to their willingness (or ability) to communicate. We find evidence that a Bank-Fund simultaneous loan is beneficial to growth and, consistently with the theory, such beneficial effect is reduced by factors preventing full communication, such as the degree of Bank-Fund competition and the salience of their private information.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121163014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The State Migration Policy Concept of the Russian Federation through 2025 was adopted in Russia in 2012 after an extended discussion. The Concept is the second one in the Russian modern history. The first one – The Migration Process Regulation Concept of the Russian Federation – was issued in 2003 but failed to be implemented both due to the fact that “the rigor of the laws is commonly mitigated by non-compliance therewith in Russia” and some of the provisions of the above document were rendered a priori impossible and its analytical quality was found to be hit-or-miss.
{"title":"Migration Processes in Russia in 2012","authors":"L. Karachurina","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2318362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2318362","url":null,"abstract":"The State Migration Policy Concept of the Russian Federation through 2025 was adopted in Russia in 2012 after an extended discussion. The Concept is the second one in the Russian modern history. The first one – The Migration Process Regulation Concept of the Russian Federation – was issued in 2003 but failed to be implemented both due to the fact that “the rigor of the laws is commonly mitigated by non-compliance therewith in Russia” and some of the provisions of the above document were rendered a priori impossible and its analytical quality was found to be hit-or-miss.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129367033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
External resources for a low income country have the potential of accelerating growth but also of creating Dutch Disease effects. This paper analyses the empirical impact of the most important external resources, foreign direct investment, aid, and loans, on the Bolivian economy for the period 1950-2009. We use a multivariate CVAR(2) model, which directly deals with endogeneity issues and allows for a more profound insight into the chain of causality, through the impulse responses. Our results indicate that loans are positive for the Bolivian economy in the long run, through an increase in exports and a decrease in purchasing power of exports however, we did not include total debt. We find that the effect of aid is negative for the Bolivian GDP per capita in the long run, which is explained by the temporary increase in purchasing power of exports, which lead to a permanent loss in the exports. Finally, foreign direct investments lead to a positive response of Bolivian GDP per capita and exports, and a reduction of purchasing power of exports in the long run.
{"title":"External Flows and Development in Bolivia","authors":"Paola Barrientos Quiroga, K. Petersen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2331333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2331333","url":null,"abstract":"External resources for a low income country have the potential of accelerating growth but also of creating Dutch Disease effects. This paper analyses the empirical impact of the most important external resources, foreign direct investment, aid, and loans, on the Bolivian economy for the period 1950-2009. We use a multivariate CVAR(2) model, which directly deals with endogeneity issues and allows for a more profound insight into the chain of causality, through the impulse responses. Our results indicate that loans are positive for the Bolivian economy in the long run, through an increase in exports and a decrease in purchasing power of exports however, we did not include total debt. We find that the effect of aid is negative for the Bolivian GDP per capita in the long run, which is explained by the temporary increase in purchasing power of exports, which lead to a permanent loss in the exports. Finally, foreign direct investments lead to a positive response of Bolivian GDP per capita and exports, and a reduction of purchasing power of exports in the long run.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115431102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significant differences that would emerge in policy formulation, when environmental capital (KN) is explicitly accounted for in macroeconomic analyses. These differences are illustrated with reference to two selected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies namely, Australia and Canada. The main analytic framework considered is a factor utilization function – which traditionally deals with Labour (L) and manufactured Capital (KM). The development of a three-factor function in terms of L, KM and KN enables the display of mistaken notions of economic performance. That is in the absence of KN, policy makers overstate the performance of L and KM. The recognition of mistaken levels of performance with reference to KM and L in standard macroeconomic analyses enables the identification of policy avenues to protect and enhance KN. As illustrated in the paper, the implication of developing and applying environmental-macroeconomic frameworks for formulating environmental and climate change policies is significant.
{"title":"Frameworks for Formulating Environmental and Climate Change Policies: Perspectives from Environmental-Macroeconomics","authors":"Seck L. Tan, Dodo J. Thampapillai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2335864","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2335864","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significant differences that would emerge in policy formulation, when environmental capital (KN) is explicitly accounted for in macroeconomic analyses. These differences are illustrated with reference to two selected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies namely, Australia and Canada. The main analytic framework considered is a factor utilization function – which traditionally deals with Labour (L) and manufactured Capital (KM). The development of a three-factor function in terms of L, KM and KN enables the display of mistaken notions of economic performance. That is in the absence of KN, policy makers overstate the performance of L and KM. The recognition of mistaken levels of performance with reference to KM and L in standard macroeconomic analyses enables the identification of policy avenues to protect and enhance KN. As illustrated in the paper, the implication of developing and applying environmental-macroeconomic frameworks for formulating environmental and climate change policies is significant.","PeriodicalId":118088,"journal":{"name":"SRPN: International Affairs Issues (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123720002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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