This study investigates whether and how strategic supply chain digitalization (SCDigital) mitigates manufacturing enterprises’ disruption risk. Using firm-level panel data from 23,005 firm–year observations from Chinese A-share manufacturing firms spanning 2013–2023, this study constructs a moderated mediation model incorporating supply chain resilience and financing constraints. Results show that SCDigital significantly reduces disruption risk, with resilience acting as a key mediating mechanism and financing constraints weakening this effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the risk-mitigating impact of digitalization is strongest for capital-intensive firms, indicating that industry characteristics can influence the value of digital transformation. The findings highlight the importance of digital transformation in enhancing firms’ operational stability and provide policy insights for improving financial flexibility to support digital resilience.
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