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Monetary policy surprises and the distribution of art-market returns: evidence from panel quantile local projections 货币政策意外和艺术市场回报的分布:来自小组分位数本地预测的证据
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109539
Ziwen Chen
How do monetary policy shocks affect the distribution of art-market returns? This paper addresses the question using Artprice hedonic indices for fourteen segments over 1998Q1- 2023Q4. Panel mean local projections show that the average response of realized auction returns to a one-standard-deviation contractionary surprise is modest and briefly positive. Panel quantile local projections, combined with Bauer and Swanson (2023b) orthogonalized surprises, indicate pronounced asymmetry: the same shock lowers the 10th percentile of realized auction returns by 2.9 percentage points while raising the 90th percentile by 4.6 percentage points at the one-quarter horizon. The 90–10 spread thus widens by roughly 7.5 percentage points. Tail widening is concentrated in high-liquidity regimes measured by the Fed balance sheet-to-GDP ratio and financial conditions. The pattern is consistent with selection and within-segment flight to quality, rather than a uniform increase in art valuations. Placebo and randomization exercises provide supporting evidence that the estimated tail responses are unlikely to be generated by chance timing. Overall, art returns display state-dependent tail exposure to monetary shocks.
货币政策冲击如何影响艺术市场回报的分布?本文使用Artprice在1998Q1- 2023Q4期间的14个细分市场的享乐指数来解决这个问题。面板平均本地预测表明,已实现的拍卖收益对一个标准差的收缩意外的平均反应是温和的,并且短暂为正。面板分位数局部预测,结合Bauer和Swanson (2023b)的正交惊喜,显示出明显的不对称性:同样的冲击使第10百分位的实现拍卖回报率降低了2.9个百分点,而在1 / 4的范围内,使第90百分位的实现拍卖回报率提高了4.6个百分点。因此,90-10的价差扩大了大约7.5个百分点。尾部扩张集中在以美联储资产负债表与gdp之比和金融状况衡量的高流动性体制。这种模式与选择和细分市场内追求质量的趋势是一致的,而不是艺术品估值的统一增长。安慰剂和随机化试验提供了支持性证据,表明估计的尾部反应不太可能是由随机时机产生的。总体而言,艺术品回报率显示出国家对货币冲击的尾部敞口。
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引用次数: 0
Big data recommendations and portfolio diversification: evidence from account-level data 大数据建议和投资组合多样化:来自账户级数据的证据
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109541
Chenhao Wang , Ting Zhang , Shanyi Zhu
Retail investors are often underdiversified, limiting potential gains from broader asset allocation. This paper studies whether big data–driven recommendations can improve portfolio diversification. We exploit a natural experiment in a large Chinese commercial bank, where a data fusion platform provides personalized recommendations in FinTech branches. Using proprietary account-level data and a difference-in-differences design, we find that portfolios in FinTech branches become 7.6% more diversified, with higher investment income and lower overall risk. Clients reduce their share of deposits and increase their holdings of wealth management products. Mechanism analyses show that recommendations alleviate information frictions, and the effects are more pronounced for clients whose portfolios underutilize their risk-bearing capacity. The impact is stronger in central business district branches and those lacking human advisors, as well as among male and non-wealthy clients.
散户投资者的投资往往不够分散,限制了从更广泛的资产配置中获得的潜在收益。本文研究了大数据驱动的投资推荐是否能够提高投资组合的多元化。我们在中国一家大型商业银行进行了一个自然实验,在该实验中,数据融合平台为FinTech分支机构提供个性化推荐。使用专有账户级数据和差异中之差设计,我们发现FinTech分支机构的投资组合多样化程度提高了7.6%,投资收益更高,整体风险更低。客户减少存款份额,增加理财产品的持有量。机制分析表明,推荐能够缓解信息摩擦,且对于风险承受能力未充分利用的客户,其效果更为显著。这种影响在中心商务区的分行和那些缺乏人力顾问的分行,以及男性和非富裕客户中更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Blockchain Investment, dual-class share structure, and asset pricing efficiency 区块链投资、双层股权结构与资产定价效率
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109536
Yueyang Qiu , Xuebao Yin , Nan Hu
This study empirically analyzes data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2006 and 2023 to explore the relationship between blockchain investment, dual-class share structures, and asset pricing efficiency. The findings indicate that blockchain investment significantly enhances asset pricing efficiency; dual-class share structures play a moderating role between blockchain investment and asset pricing efficiency; the impact of blockchain investment on asset pricing efficiency exhibits heterogeneity between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises; and there is also heterogeneity in the effects of blockchain investment on asset pricing efficiency between southern enterprises and non-southern enterprises. Based on these conclusions, this study suggests that policymakers should further promote the adoption and application of blockchain technology, optimize corporate governance structures, and strengthen regional digital infrastructure development to improve the overall market's asset pricing efficiency.
本文对2006 - 2023年中国a股上市公司数据进行实证分析,探讨区块链投资、双层股权结构与资产定价效率之间的关系。研究发现:区块链投资显著提高了资产定价效率;双层股权结构在bb0投资与资产定价效率之间起调节作用;国有企业和非国有企业的bb0投资对资产定价效率的影响呈现异质性;南方企业与非南方企业之间bb0投资对资产定价效率的影响也存在异质性。基于上述结论,本文建议政策制定者应进一步推动区块链技术的采用和应用,优化公司治理结构,加强区域数字基础设施建设,以提高整体市场的资产定价效率。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of monetary policy regimes in China under rising global uncertainty: A time-varying approach 全球不确定性上升背景下中国货币政策机制的动态:一个时变方法
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109523
Eun Young Oh , Georgios Magkonis , Shuonan Zhang
This paper studies how China’s monetary policy has responded to global uncertainty under different policy regimes. Using a time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) and monthly data from 2002–2020, the analysis identifies regime dependence. In the 2000s, uncertainty shocks generated sharp declines in output and inflation and were accompanied by accommodative policy easing. Under the 2010s “new normal”, both real and policy responses became smaller and more stable. Monetary adjustments are more closely related to inflation overshooting than to output deviations, indicating a stronger forward-looking orientation toward inflation stabilization. These results suggest that the evolution of China’s monetary framework has increased its resilience to external uncertainty. The main findings are robust across alternative policy instruments and remain unchanged when the exchange rate is incorporated into the analysis.
本文研究了在不同的政策制度下,中国货币政策对全球不确定性的反应。使用随机波动的时变参数VAR (TVP-VAR-SV)和2002-2020年的月度数据,分析确定了制度依赖性。本世纪头十年,不确定性冲击导致产出和通胀大幅下降,并伴随着宽松的政策。在2010年代的“新常态”下,实际反应和政策反应都变得更小、更稳定。货币调整与通胀超调的关系比与产出偏差的关系更密切,这表明稳定通胀的前瞻性更强。这些结果表明,中国货币框架的演变增强了其对外部不确定性的抵御能力。主要研究结果在其他政策工具中都很强劲,在将汇率纳入分析后仍保持不变。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risk and internal pay gap 气候风险与内部薪酬差距
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109531
Xiaolin Kong , Sabri Boubaker , Yong Jiang , Yi-Shuai Ren
This study examines the influence of climate risk on the internal pay gap of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2022. We find that climate risk increases the average compensation of both employees and executives. More importantly, the pay gap is narrowed by both institutional investors' engagement and participation by controlling shareholders. In non-SOEs and non-heavily polluting firms, climate risks will have larger and more significant impacts on the pay gap. These findings enhance the theoretical framework of corporate governance in the context of climate-related uncertainty and help optimize compensation systems for climate risk.
本研究考察了2007 - 2022年气候风险对中国a股上市公司内部薪酬差距的影响。我们发现,气候风险增加了员工和高管的平均薪酬。更重要的是,机构投资者的参与和控股股东的参与都缩小了薪酬差距。在非国有企业和非重污染企业,气候风险将对薪酬差距产生更大、更显著的影响。这些发现增强了气候相关不确定性背景下公司治理的理论框架,并有助于优化针对气候风险的补偿制度。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of data as a production factor on the low-altitude economy 数据作为生产要素对低空经济的影响
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109504
Shenghan Huang , Huan Hua
As data increasingly functions as a fundamental production factor in the modern economy, understanding its influence on fostering emerging industries has become essential. This study investigates how data factor development influences the low-altitude economy’s (LAE’s) growth in China, an emerging sector encompassing drone services, general aviation, and related commercial activities operating within low-altitude airspace. Using provincial panel data spanning 2012–2023, we apply a two-way fixed effects framework supplemented by instrumental variable estimation, Heckman selection correction, and propensity score matching for addressing potential endogeneity and selection bias. Results demonstrate that data factor development has a statistically significant positive effect on LAE performance, and this finding remains consistent across all estimation approaches. Further, we examine the transmission mechanisms through mediation analysis, revealing that digital infrastructure and research and development intensity are partial mediators linking data development to LAE growth. Digital infrastructure has a stronger mediating effect, underscoring the critical relevance of connectivity and communication networks for supporting low-altitude operations. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the positive relationship is more evident in provinces with advanced industrial structures and geographically advantaged southern regions. These findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers, demonstrating that promoting LAE requires coordinated effort to strengthen data governance, expand digital infrastructure, and cultivate regional innovation capacity. Regions with less developed industrial bases may require targeted interventions to establish the preconditions for benefiting from data-driven growth in this strategic sector.
随着数据日益成为现代经济的基本生产要素,了解其对培育新兴产业的影响变得至关重要。本研究探讨了数据因素的发展如何影响中国低空经济(LAE)的增长,这是一个新兴的行业,包括无人机服务、通用航空和在低空空域运营的相关商业活动。使用2012-2023年的省级面板数据,我们采用双向固定效应框架,辅以工具变量估计、Heckman选择校正和倾向得分匹配来解决潜在的内生性和选择偏差。结果表明,数据因子开发对LAE性能具有统计学上显著的积极影响,并且这一发现在所有估计方法中都是一致的。此外,我们通过中介分析考察了传导机制,发现数字基础设施和研发强度是数据发展与LAE增长之间的部分中介。数字基础设施具有更强的中介效应,强调了连接和通信网络对支持低空作战的关键相关性。异质性分析表明,在产业结构发达的省份和南方区位优势地区,二者之间的正相关关系更为明显。这些发现为政策制定者提供了有价值的指导,表明促进LAE需要协调努力,加强数据治理,扩大数字基础设施,培养区域创新能力。工业基础较不发达的地区可能需要有针对性的干预措施,为从这一战略部门的数据驱动型增长中受益创造先决条件。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of extreme precipitation on agricultural enterprises’ insurance purchasing behavior 极端降水对农业企业保险购买行为的影响
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109533
Qianting Ma, Ruonan Xi, Zhenxian An, Yueshu Zhou
Against the backdrop of increasing frequency of extreme weather events and growing urgency of agricultural risk management, an in-depth investigation into their impact on the risk response behaviors of agricultural enterprises holds significant practical and theoretical importance. This study systematically examines the impact of extreme precipitation on the insurance-purchasing behavior of agricultural enterprises using a sample of 304 Chinese listed companies from 2011 to 2022. The study finds that (i) extreme precipitation significantly positively affects agricultural enterprises’ insurance-purchasing behavior. (ii) Extreme precipitation reduces agricultural yields and triggers market panic, jointly influencing agricultural enterprises’ insurance-purchasing behavior through the output loss and the emotional panic pathways. (iii) The effect of extreme precipitation on agricultural enterprises’ insurance-purchasing behavior varies significantly across firms with different ownership structures and industrial attributes, with nonstate-owned and resource-intensive enterprises being more sensitive to such shocks. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding the risk response mechanisms of agricultural enterprises under climate change and offers insights into improving agricultural insurance policies and promoting differentiated risk management strategies.
在极端天气事件频发、农业风险管理日益紧迫的背景下,深入研究其对农业企业风险应对行为的影响具有重要的现实和理论意义。本研究以2011 - 2022年304家中国上市公司为样本,系统考察了极端降水对农业企业保险购买行为的影响。研究发现(1)极端降水显著正向影响农业企业的保险购买行为。(2)极端降水降低农业产量,引发市场恐慌,通过产出损失和情绪恐慌途径共同影响农业企业的保险购买行为。(3)极端降水对农业企业保险购买行为的影响在不同所有制结构和产业属性的企业之间存在显著差异,非国有企业和资源密集型企业对极端降水冲击更为敏感。本研究为理解气候变化背景下农业企业风险应对机制提供了实证依据,为完善农业保险政策、推进差异化风险管理策略提供了借鉴。
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引用次数: 0
Front-end or end-of-pipe? the impact of the government focus on corporate environmental investment choices 前端还是管道末端?政府关注企业环境投资选择的影响
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109530
Ke Liu , Linjun Cao , Jian Zhou
Drawing on neoinstitutional theory, this study examines how government environmental attention shapes firms’ heterogeneous environmental strategies using data on Chinese listed companies from 2008 to 2022. The results show that such attention significantly encourages firms to adopt front-end prevention strategies while exerting no meaningful effect on end-of-pipe treatment strategies, underscoring its value for microlevel environmental governance. The facilitating effect is stronger among firms with limited cost-transfer capabilities and in regions with high public environmental demands. Resource compensation and regulatory constraints further operate as core mechanisms through which government environmental attention influences firms’ adoption of front-end prevention strategies.
本文运用新制度理论,利用2008 - 2022年中国上市公司的数据,考察了政府环境关注对企业异质环境战略的影响。结果表明,这种关注显著鼓励企业采取前端预防策略,而对管道末端处理策略没有显著影响,凸显了其对微观环境治理的价值。在成本转移能力有限的企业和公共环境需求较高的地区,促进效应更强。资源补偿和监管约束进一步成为政府环境关注影响企业采取前端预防战略的核心机制。
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引用次数: 0
Executive digital backgrounds and firm investment efficiency 高管数字化背景与企业投资效率
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109528
Hong Yang , Yuzhen Pan
Digital technologies have substantially reshaped corporate decision-making processes. This research aims to explore how executives’ digital backgrounds influence firms’ investment outcomes. Grounded in a large dataset of listed Chinese companies between 2016 and 2024, we found robust evidence that companies led by executives with digital backgrounds exhibit significantly higher investment efficiency, especially among technology-intensive firms and those surrounded by higher information asymmetry. The positive relation persists after a battery of econometric tests. Further analyses reveal that data-driven decision-making and alternative financing options serve as key mechanisms. Overall, this study advances the burgeoning research on management teams and corporate investment.
数字技术极大地改变了企业的决策过程。本研究旨在探讨高管的数字化背景如何影响公司的投资结果。基于2016年至2024年间中国上市公司的大型数据集,我们发现强有力的证据表明,由具有数字背景的高管领导的公司表现出更高的投资效率,尤其是在技术密集型公司和信息不对称程度较高的公司中。在一系列计量经济学检验之后,这种正相关关系仍然存在。进一步分析表明,数据驱动的决策和替代融资选择是关键机制。总体而言,本研究推动了新兴的管理团队与企业投资的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Can media supervision enhance corporate environmental compliance? The roles of information transparency and financing constraints 媒体监督能促进企业环境合规吗?信息透明度与融资约束的作用
IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109527
JiaLiang Guo , Chao Zhang
Using panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011–2024, this study examines whether media supervision enhances corporate environmental compliance and explores its underlying mechanisms. Results show that media coverage significantly improves firms’ ESG performance by strengthening information transparency and public pressure. Moreover, media supervision promotes compliance indirectly by increasing information transparency and easing financing constraints. The effect is stronger for state-owned enterprises than for private firms, reflecting differences in social responsibility pressure and reputation incentives.
本文利用2011-2024年中国a股上市公司的面板数据,考察媒体监管是否能提高企业环境合规性,并探讨其潜在机制。结果表明,媒体报道通过增强信息透明度和公众压力,显著提高了企业的ESG绩效。此外,媒体监督通过增加信息透明度和缓解融资约束间接促进合规。这种影响在国有企业中比在私营企业中更强,这反映了在社会责任压力和声誉激励方面的差异。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Finance Research Letters
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