Pub Date : 2024-07-31DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00298-4
Vera Laísa da Silva Arruda, Ane Auxiliadora Costa Alencar, Osmar Abílio de Carvalho Júnior, Fernanda de Figueiredo Ribeiro, Filipe Viegas de Arruda, Dhemerson Estevão Conciani, Wallace Vieira da Silva, Julia Zanin Shimbo
Fire significantly transforms ecology and landscapes worldwide, impacting carbon cycling, species interactions, and ecosystem functions. In the Brazilian Cerrado, a fire-dependent savanna, the interaction between fire, society, and the environment is evident. Given that wildfires significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, our study aimed to analyze four decades of burned area data to understand changes in fire dynamics, using Collection 2 of annual MapBiomas Fire maps (1985 to 2022). Our study examined spatiotemporal patterns, fire recurrence, fire distribution across land uses, temporal changes in fire scar size, burned area variations across ecoregions, and their correlation with farming areas. From 1985 to 2022, fire impacted 40% (792,204 km2) of the Cerrado biome, with 63% burning more than once. Natural vegetation was the most affected, primarily due to human-driven ignition during the dry season. A noticeable trend of later peaks in fire activity, concentrated towards the end of the dry season, along with an increase in patch size over time, characterized a clear shift in the Cerrado fire regime. Recently, the MATOPIBA region and the northern biome exhibited significant fire clusters, with burned areas rising alongside farming expansion. The ecoregion-based analysis identified fire hotspots, with the "Bananal" ecoregion, the largest wetland area in the biome, exhibiting increased fire recurrence and larger patch size over time. Our four-decade analysis of fire dynamics in the Cerrado revealed human-induced changes in the fire regime, originally shifting from July to September to a new fire season from August to October. This shift poses several environmental threats given their overlap with the driest months of the year. This study improved our understanding of changes in fire patterns and their impacts on each ecoregion and land use. Wetlands experienced the highest relative burned area, highlighting their ecological importance and increased vulnerability. In the southern Cerrado, where farming is established and natural vegetation more fragmented, fire events tend to decrease; while in the north, with recent farming expansion, fire susceptibility rises. Conservation-oriented strategies, like the Brazilian Integrated Fire Management (MIF), are crucial for mitigating impacts while enhancing the Cerrado’s resilience to climate change.
{"title":"Assessing four decades of fire behavior dynamics in the Cerrado biome (1985 to 2022)","authors":"Vera Laísa da Silva Arruda, Ane Auxiliadora Costa Alencar, Osmar Abílio de Carvalho Júnior, Fernanda de Figueiredo Ribeiro, Filipe Viegas de Arruda, Dhemerson Estevão Conciani, Wallace Vieira da Silva, Julia Zanin Shimbo","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00298-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00298-4","url":null,"abstract":"Fire significantly transforms ecology and landscapes worldwide, impacting carbon cycling, species interactions, and ecosystem functions. In the Brazilian Cerrado, a fire-dependent savanna, the interaction between fire, society, and the environment is evident. Given that wildfires significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, our study aimed to analyze four decades of burned area data to understand changes in fire dynamics, using Collection 2 of annual MapBiomas Fire maps (1985 to 2022). Our study examined spatiotemporal patterns, fire recurrence, fire distribution across land uses, temporal changes in fire scar size, burned area variations across ecoregions, and their correlation with farming areas. From 1985 to 2022, fire impacted 40% (792,204 km2) of the Cerrado biome, with 63% burning more than once. Natural vegetation was the most affected, primarily due to human-driven ignition during the dry season. A noticeable trend of later peaks in fire activity, concentrated towards the end of the dry season, along with an increase in patch size over time, characterized a clear shift in the Cerrado fire regime. Recently, the MATOPIBA region and the northern biome exhibited significant fire clusters, with burned areas rising alongside farming expansion. The ecoregion-based analysis identified fire hotspots, with the \"Bananal\" ecoregion, the largest wetland area in the biome, exhibiting increased fire recurrence and larger patch size over time. Our four-decade analysis of fire dynamics in the Cerrado revealed human-induced changes in the fire regime, originally shifting from July to September to a new fire season from August to October. This shift poses several environmental threats given their overlap with the driest months of the year. This study improved our understanding of changes in fire patterns and their impacts on each ecoregion and land use. Wetlands experienced the highest relative burned area, highlighting their ecological importance and increased vulnerability. In the southern Cerrado, where farming is established and natural vegetation more fragmented, fire events tend to decrease; while in the north, with recent farming expansion, fire susceptibility rises. Conservation-oriented strategies, like the Brazilian Integrated Fire Management (MIF), are crucial for mitigating impacts while enhancing the Cerrado’s resilience to climate change.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"181 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141869767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-25DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00296-6
Christina Restaino, Spencer Eusden, Megan Kay
The wildfire issue in the western United States presents a complex challenge that impacts both society and the environment. Implementing K-12 education programs focused on wildfire can play a significant role in addressing this issue. By integrating wildfire education into school curricula, teachers can equip students with the knowledge and skills needed to understand fire ecology, land management, and wildfire preparedness. Early exposure to wildfire science education can also connect students with viable career paths in fire and ecosystem management. We used our position as Cooperative Extension educators in Nevada’s Living With Fire Program to catalyze fire science knowledge through creating a high school wildfire science curriculum that is focused on fire ecology, wildfire preparedness, and career exposure. We used a transdisciplinary approach to create educational materials that are effective, relevant, and accurately represent wildfire in Nevada. We integrated five different knowledge forms (technical, cultural, management, institutional, and student) to create a robust curriculum that includes many different stakeholder priorities and values, while still meeting the needs of students and teachers. Our initial impacts assessment demonstrates that our curriculum instruction is creating learning advances in fire ecology and wildfire preparedness. We assert that this curriculum and other wildfire education programs in our region can increase our overall capacity for living with fire.
{"title":"Taking the next step in wildfire education: integrating multiple knowledge forms into co-produced high school fire science curricula","authors":"Christina Restaino, Spencer Eusden, Megan Kay","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00296-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00296-6","url":null,"abstract":"The wildfire issue in the western United States presents a complex challenge that impacts both society and the environment. Implementing K-12 education programs focused on wildfire can play a significant role in addressing this issue. By integrating wildfire education into school curricula, teachers can equip students with the knowledge and skills needed to understand fire ecology, land management, and wildfire preparedness. Early exposure to wildfire science education can also connect students with viable career paths in fire and ecosystem management. We used our position as Cooperative Extension educators in Nevada’s Living With Fire Program to catalyze fire science knowledge through creating a high school wildfire science curriculum that is focused on fire ecology, wildfire preparedness, and career exposure. We used a transdisciplinary approach to create educational materials that are effective, relevant, and accurately represent wildfire in Nevada. We integrated five different knowledge forms (technical, cultural, management, institutional, and student) to create a robust curriculum that includes many different stakeholder priorities and values, while still meeting the needs of students and teachers. Our initial impacts assessment demonstrates that our curriculum instruction is creating learning advances in fire ecology and wildfire preparedness. We assert that this curriculum and other wildfire education programs in our region can increase our overall capacity for living with fire.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00292-w
David Salesa, M. Jaime Baeza, Victor M. Santana
Disturbance-regime shifts are often a manifestation related to climate change. In Mediterranean ecosystems, summer-drought lengthening and high fire-severity may be among the most detrimental processes for plant recovery capacity. However, although isolated effects have been usually assessed, the effects when both disturbances interact are less known. This paper examined the possible interactive impacts of increased fire severity and summer-drought lengthening on Mediterranean vegetation recovery. Our initial hypothesis maintained that both disturbances would interact and cause greater recovery damage than in an isolated way. For this reason, we performed an experimental fire in summer by creating two fire severity levels: control fire severity (CSev) and increased fire severity by adding dry biomass (IncrSev). Following fire, and using rainfall exclusions roofs, we extended summer drought conditions toward the first autumn after fire (AutExcl treatment) and toward the first post-fire spring (SprExcl). All the treatment-levels combinations were replicated in five 0.5 × 0.5 m plots. Emerged seedlings were not affected by treatments, but plant establishment was significantly impaired by extended droughts at the end of the first post-fire year, particularly for Cistaceae and subshrubs. Nevertheless, we found no effects of increased fire severity on either isolation or combination with drought. Notwithstanding, the combination of some treatment levels brought about changes in plant composition. These changes were driven mainly by the detrimental effects of treatments on perennial forbs. This functional group was affected by treatments, which suggests that they may be more sensitive to changes in fire severity and severe droughts. Increased fire severity might not affect plant recovery either by itself or by interacting with drought because prolonged drought may mask increased fire severity impact on Mediterranean seeding species. However, fire-severity increases, together with sporadic drought events in the early stages of these communities, could imply long-lasting changes in community composition due to distinct functional-groups sensitivities. Nevertheless, these impacts depend on the considered species or functional group. These findings provide information about the impacts that Mediterranean-shrublands ecosystems might face if the trends of fire and drought regimes continue shifting.
{"title":"Fire severity and prolonged drought do not interact to reduce plant regeneration capacity but alter community composition in a Mediterranean shrubland","authors":"David Salesa, M. Jaime Baeza, Victor M. Santana","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00292-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00292-w","url":null,"abstract":"Disturbance-regime shifts are often a manifestation related to climate change. In Mediterranean ecosystems, summer-drought lengthening and high fire-severity may be among the most detrimental processes for plant recovery capacity. However, although isolated effects have been usually assessed, the effects when both disturbances interact are less known. This paper examined the possible interactive impacts of increased fire severity and summer-drought lengthening on Mediterranean vegetation recovery. Our initial hypothesis maintained that both disturbances would interact and cause greater recovery damage than in an isolated way. For this reason, we performed an experimental fire in summer by creating two fire severity levels: control fire severity (CSev) and increased fire severity by adding dry biomass (IncrSev). Following fire, and using rainfall exclusions roofs, we extended summer drought conditions toward the first autumn after fire (AutExcl treatment) and toward the first post-fire spring (SprExcl). All the treatment-levels combinations were replicated in five 0.5 × 0.5 m plots. Emerged seedlings were not affected by treatments, but plant establishment was significantly impaired by extended droughts at the end of the first post-fire year, particularly for Cistaceae and subshrubs. Nevertheless, we found no effects of increased fire severity on either isolation or combination with drought. Notwithstanding, the combination of some treatment levels brought about changes in plant composition. These changes were driven mainly by the detrimental effects of treatments on perennial forbs. This functional group was affected by treatments, which suggests that they may be more sensitive to changes in fire severity and severe droughts. Increased fire severity might not affect plant recovery either by itself or by interacting with drought because prolonged drought may mask increased fire severity impact on Mediterranean seeding species. However, fire-severity increases, together with sporadic drought events in the early stages of these communities, could imply long-lasting changes in community composition due to distinct functional-groups sensitivities. Nevertheless, these impacts depend on the considered species or functional group. These findings provide information about the impacts that Mediterranean-shrublands ecosystems might face if the trends of fire and drought regimes continue shifting.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00290-y
Christine Eriksen
This article is the fuller written version of the invited closing plenary given by the author at the 10th International Fire Ecology and Management Congress. The article provides a consideration of our capacity to cope, care, and coexist in a fiery world from a social and structural point of view. It focuses on privilege as the root cause of a long and troublesome history within the wildfire profession of not valuing all generational knowledge equally, not treating all cultures with the same respect, not embracing diversity and inclusion, and not affording the same status to all disciplines and voices. The article argues that we can strengthen our collective capacity to coexist with wildfire by embracing local and indigenous fire stewardship practices, by enabling workforce diversity and inclusive leadership culture, and by providing sustainable working conditions for wildland firefighters. To do so requires individual and collective noticing of what is wrong, and everyday action steps towards equity.
{"title":"Coexisting with wildfire: strengthening collective capacity by changing the status quo","authors":"Christine Eriksen","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00290-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00290-y","url":null,"abstract":"This article is the fuller written version of the invited closing plenary given by the author at the 10th International Fire Ecology and Management Congress. The article provides a consideration of our capacity to cope, care, and coexist in a fiery world from a social and structural point of view. It focuses on privilege as the root cause of a long and troublesome history within the wildfire profession of not valuing all generational knowledge equally, not treating all cultures with the same respect, not embracing diversity and inclusion, and not affording the same status to all disciplines and voices. The article argues that we can strengthen our collective capacity to coexist with wildfire by embracing local and indigenous fire stewardship practices, by enabling workforce diversity and inclusive leadership culture, and by providing sustainable working conditions for wildland firefighters. To do so requires individual and collective noticing of what is wrong, and everyday action steps towards equity.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"253 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141741232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-22DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00300-z
Carolyn F. van Mantgem
Serotiny, or pyriscence, refers to delayed seed dissemination within plants and plays an important role in the population dynamics of species following fire. Accurately understanding the variation in serotiny is crucial to predicting ecosystem responses to changing fire regimes. Three-dimensional (3D) cone surface area is one critical trait that can be used to characterize responses in serotinous species following fire, yet approaches to accurately measure cone surface area are limited. Cone surface area in regards to this paper is the total area of all surfaces of the cone. Past studies have relied on visual estimation to determine the openness of cones or to identify when cones become open. Subjective assessments of cone opening may be insufficient to adequately characterize cone responses to fire. In this study, I demonstrate the effectiveness of 3D modeling using a readily available phone camera and applications (Polycam, Blender) to quantify differences in 3D surface area of cones before and after heating treatments by comparing two serotinous conifer species, Monterey cypress (Hesperocyparis macrocarpa) and bishop pine (Pinus muricata). Bishop pine had an average cone surface area increase of 175.7% while Monterey cypress had an average cone surface area increase of 43.5%. Paired t-tests showed that cone surface area significantly increased following heating for both species. Bishop pine showed a much greater cone surface area change relative to Monterey cypress. 3D imaging with the phone application, Polycam, proved to be a successful method of quantifying cone opening, creating a mesh that could be measured with the post-image processing software, Blender. A mesh can be defined as a digital 3D representation of an object made up of connected vertices that create edges and faces. Using a readily available phone camera, one can create an accurate 3D model to measure changes in the surface area of cones before and after fire. Simple methods for quantifying serotiny, such as demonstrated here, allow for improved understanding and predictions of how species respond to fire and other environmental triggers but require further investigation including, but not limited to, comparisons between serotinous species, facultative serotinous species, and non-serotinous species.
{"title":"3D imaging as a method of measuring serotiny","authors":"Carolyn F. van Mantgem","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00300-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00300-z","url":null,"abstract":"Serotiny, or pyriscence, refers to delayed seed dissemination within plants and plays an important role in the population dynamics of species following fire. Accurately understanding the variation in serotiny is crucial to predicting ecosystem responses to changing fire regimes. Three-dimensional (3D) cone surface area is one critical trait that can be used to characterize responses in serotinous species following fire, yet approaches to accurately measure cone surface area are limited. Cone surface area in regards to this paper is the total area of all surfaces of the cone. Past studies have relied on visual estimation to determine the openness of cones or to identify when cones become open. Subjective assessments of cone opening may be insufficient to adequately characterize cone responses to fire. In this study, I demonstrate the effectiveness of 3D modeling using a readily available phone camera and applications (Polycam, Blender) to quantify differences in 3D surface area of cones before and after heating treatments by comparing two serotinous conifer species, Monterey cypress (Hesperocyparis macrocarpa) and bishop pine (Pinus muricata). Bishop pine had an average cone surface area increase of 175.7% while Monterey cypress had an average cone surface area increase of 43.5%. Paired t-tests showed that cone surface area significantly increased following heating for both species. Bishop pine showed a much greater cone surface area change relative to Monterey cypress. 3D imaging with the phone application, Polycam, proved to be a successful method of quantifying cone opening, creating a mesh that could be measured with the post-image processing software, Blender. A mesh can be defined as a digital 3D representation of an object made up of connected vertices that create edges and faces. Using a readily available phone camera, one can create an accurate 3D model to measure changes in the surface area of cones before and after fire. Simple methods for quantifying serotiny, such as demonstrated here, allow for improved understanding and predictions of how species respond to fire and other environmental triggers but require further investigation including, but not limited to, comparisons between serotinous species, facultative serotinous species, and non-serotinous species.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141741085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00287-7
Di Lin, Vincenzo Giannico, Raffaele Lafortezza, Giovanni Sanesi, Mario Elia
Mediterranean forests are increasingly threatened by wildfires, with fuel load playing a crucial role in fire dynamics and behaviors. Accurate fuel load determination contributes substantially to the wildfire monitoring, management, and prevention. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in estimating fine dead fuel load, focusing on the development of models using LiDAR-derived metrics to predict various categories of fine dead fuel load. The estimation of fine dead fuel load was performed by the integration of field data and airborne LiDAR data by applying multiple linear regression analysis. Model performance was evaluated by the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Through multiple linear regression models, the study explored the relationship between LiDAR-derived height and canopy cover metrics and different types of fine dead fuel load (1-h, 10-h, 100-h fuel loads, and litter). The accuracy of these models varied, with litter prediction showing the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.569, nRMSE = 0.158). In contrast, the 1-h fuel load prediction was the least accurate (R2 = 0.521, nRMSE = 0.168). The analysis highlighted the significance of specific LiDAR metrics in predicting different fuel loads, revealing a strong correlation between the vertical structure of vegetation and the accumulation of fine dead fuels. The findings demonstrate the potential of airborne LiDAR data in accurately estimating fine dead fuel loads in Mediterranean forests. This capability is significant for enhancing wildfire management, including risk assessment and mitigation. The study underscores the relevance of LiDAR in environmental monitoring and forest management, particularly in regions prone to wildfires.
{"title":"Use of airborne LiDAR to predict fine dead fuel load in Mediterranean forest stands of Southern Europe","authors":"Di Lin, Vincenzo Giannico, Raffaele Lafortezza, Giovanni Sanesi, Mario Elia","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00287-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00287-7","url":null,"abstract":"Mediterranean forests are increasingly threatened by wildfires, with fuel load playing a crucial role in fire dynamics and behaviors. Accurate fuel load determination contributes substantially to the wildfire monitoring, management, and prevention. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in estimating fine dead fuel load, focusing on the development of models using LiDAR-derived metrics to predict various categories of fine dead fuel load. The estimation of fine dead fuel load was performed by the integration of field data and airborne LiDAR data by applying multiple linear regression analysis. Model performance was evaluated by the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Through multiple linear regression models, the study explored the relationship between LiDAR-derived height and canopy cover metrics and different types of fine dead fuel load (1-h, 10-h, 100-h fuel loads, and litter). The accuracy of these models varied, with litter prediction showing the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.569, nRMSE = 0.158). In contrast, the 1-h fuel load prediction was the least accurate (R2 = 0.521, nRMSE = 0.168). The analysis highlighted the significance of specific LiDAR metrics in predicting different fuel loads, revealing a strong correlation between the vertical structure of vegetation and the accumulation of fine dead fuels. The findings demonstrate the potential of airborne LiDAR data in accurately estimating fine dead fuel loads in Mediterranean forests. This capability is significant for enhancing wildfire management, including risk assessment and mitigation. The study underscores the relevance of LiDAR in environmental monitoring and forest management, particularly in regions prone to wildfires.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-25DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00289-5
Fahad Shahzad, Kaleem Mehmood, Khadim Hussain, Ijlal Haidar, Shoaib Ahmad Anees, Sultan Muhammad, Jamshid Ali, Muhammad Adnan, Zhichao Wang, Zhongke Feng
Vegetation fires have major impacts on the ecosystem and present a significant threat to human life. Vegetation fires consists of forest fires, cropland fires, and other vegetation fires in this study. Currently, there is a limited amount of research on the long-term prediction of vegetation fires in Pakistan. The exact effect of every factor on the frequency of vegetation fires remains unclear when using standard analysis. This research utilized the high proficiency of machine learning algorithms to combine data from several sources, including the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset, topographic, climatic conditions, and different vegetation types acquired between 2001 and 2022. We tested many algorithms and ultimately chose four models for formal data processing. Their selection was based on their performance metrics, such as accuracy, computational efficiency, and preliminary test results. The model’s logistic regression, a random forest, a support vector machine, and an eXtreme Gradient Boosting were used to identify and select the nine key factors of forest and cropland fires and, in the case of other vegetation, seven key factors that cause a fire in Pakistan. The findings indicated that the vegetation fire prediction models achieved prediction accuracies ranging from 78.7 to 87.5% for forest fires, 70.4 to 84.0% for cropland fires, and 66.6 to 83.1% for other vegetation. Additionally, the area under the curve (AUC) values ranged from 83.6 to 93.4% in forest fires, 72.6 to 90.6% in cropland fires, and 74.2 to 90.7% in other vegetation. The random forest model had the highest accuracy rate of 87.5% in forest fires, 84.0% in cropland fires, and 83.1% in other vegetation and also the highest AUC value of 93.4% in forest fires, 90.6% in cropland fires, and 90.7% in other vegetation, proving to be the most optimal performance model. The models provided predictive insights into specific conditions and regional susceptibilities to fire occurrences, adding significant value beyond the initial MODIS detection data. The maps generated to analyze Pakistan’s vegetation fire risk showed the geographical distribution of areas with high, moderate, and low vegetation fire risks, highlighting predictive risk assessments rather than historical fire detections.
{"title":"Comparing machine learning algorithms to predict vegetation fire detections in Pakistan","authors":"Fahad Shahzad, Kaleem Mehmood, Khadim Hussain, Ijlal Haidar, Shoaib Ahmad Anees, Sultan Muhammad, Jamshid Ali, Muhammad Adnan, Zhichao Wang, Zhongke Feng","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00289-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00289-5","url":null,"abstract":"Vegetation fires have major impacts on the ecosystem and present a significant threat to human life. Vegetation fires consists of forest fires, cropland fires, and other vegetation fires in this study. Currently, there is a limited amount of research on the long-term prediction of vegetation fires in Pakistan. The exact effect of every factor on the frequency of vegetation fires remains unclear when using standard analysis. This research utilized the high proficiency of machine learning algorithms to combine data from several sources, including the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset, topographic, climatic conditions, and different vegetation types acquired between 2001 and 2022. We tested many algorithms and ultimately chose four models for formal data processing. Their selection was based on their performance metrics, such as accuracy, computational efficiency, and preliminary test results. The model’s logistic regression, a random forest, a support vector machine, and an eXtreme Gradient Boosting were used to identify and select the nine key factors of forest and cropland fires and, in the case of other vegetation, seven key factors that cause a fire in Pakistan. The findings indicated that the vegetation fire prediction models achieved prediction accuracies ranging from 78.7 to 87.5% for forest fires, 70.4 to 84.0% for cropland fires, and 66.6 to 83.1% for other vegetation. Additionally, the area under the curve (AUC) values ranged from 83.6 to 93.4% in forest fires, 72.6 to 90.6% in cropland fires, and 74.2 to 90.7% in other vegetation. The random forest model had the highest accuracy rate of 87.5% in forest fires, 84.0% in cropland fires, and 83.1% in other vegetation and also the highest AUC value of 93.4% in forest fires, 90.6% in cropland fires, and 90.7% in other vegetation, proving to be the most optimal performance model. The models provided predictive insights into specific conditions and regional susceptibilities to fire occurrences, adding significant value beyond the initial MODIS detection data. The maps generated to analyze Pakistan’s vegetation fire risk showed the geographical distribution of areas with high, moderate, and low vegetation fire risks, highlighting predictive risk assessments rather than historical fire detections.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-24DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00285-9
Margaret D. Epstein, Carl A. Seielstad, Christopher J. Moran
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to catalyze forest conversion to grass and shrublands due to more extreme fire behavior and hotter and drier post-fire conditions. However, field surveys in the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States show robust conifer regeneration on burned sites. This study utilizes a machine learning (GBM) approach to monitor canopy cover systematically on a census of burned areas in two large wilderness areas from 1985 to 2021, to contextualize these recent field surveys and create a monitoring baseline for future change. A predictive model was developed from coincident LiDAR and Landsat observations and used to create time series of canopy cover on 352 burned sites (individual wildfires subset by number of times burned), which were then summarized using fire impact and recovery metrics. Fire impact, defined as canopy cover loss relative to pre-fire condition, was highly correlated with burn severity (Spearman’s R = 0.70). Recovery was characterized by the following: (1) whether a burned area began gaining canopy cover and (2) how long would it take to reach pre-fire cover given observed rates of gain. Eighty-five percent of the land area studied showed evidence of recovery. Areas that are failing to recover are burning more recently than their recovering counterparts, with 60% of non-recovering sites burning for the first time after 2003. However, the 5-year probability of recovery is similar among recent burns and for those that burned earlier in the record, suggesting that they may recover with more time. Once sites begin recovering, median time to reach pre-fire cover is 40 years. Seven sites have expected recovery times greater than 200 years, six of which burned for the first time after 2006. Overall, burned sites in wilderness areas of the Northern Rocky Mountains are broadly recovering from wildfire. However, anthropogenic climate change adds a layer of uncertainty to the future prognosis of conifer recovery. This work provides a framework for systematic monitoring into the future and establishes a baseline of impact and recovery in the mountains of western Montana and northern Idaho.
{"title":"Impact and recovery of forest cover following wildfire in the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States","authors":"Margaret D. Epstein, Carl A. Seielstad, Christopher J. Moran","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00285-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00285-9","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change is expected to catalyze forest conversion to grass and shrublands due to more extreme fire behavior and hotter and drier post-fire conditions. However, field surveys in the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States show robust conifer regeneration on burned sites. This study utilizes a machine learning (GBM) approach to monitor canopy cover systematically on a census of burned areas in two large wilderness areas from 1985 to 2021, to contextualize these recent field surveys and create a monitoring baseline for future change. A predictive model was developed from coincident LiDAR and Landsat observations and used to create time series of canopy cover on 352 burned sites (individual wildfires subset by number of times burned), which were then summarized using fire impact and recovery metrics. Fire impact, defined as canopy cover loss relative to pre-fire condition, was highly correlated with burn severity (Spearman’s R = 0.70). Recovery was characterized by the following: (1) whether a burned area began gaining canopy cover and (2) how long would it take to reach pre-fire cover given observed rates of gain. Eighty-five percent of the land area studied showed evidence of recovery. Areas that are failing to recover are burning more recently than their recovering counterparts, with 60% of non-recovering sites burning for the first time after 2003. However, the 5-year probability of recovery is similar among recent burns and for those that burned earlier in the record, suggesting that they may recover with more time. Once sites begin recovering, median time to reach pre-fire cover is 40 years. Seven sites have expected recovery times greater than 200 years, six of which burned for the first time after 2006. Overall, burned sites in wilderness areas of the Northern Rocky Mountains are broadly recovering from wildfire. However, anthropogenic climate change adds a layer of uncertainty to the future prognosis of conifer recovery. This work provides a framework for systematic monitoring into the future and establishes a baseline of impact and recovery in the mountains of western Montana and northern Idaho.","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141504421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-24DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00286-8
Norma L. Fowler, Rebecca E. Carden
The eastern Edwards Plateau supports a mosaic of woodlands, savannas, and shrubland in which native plant and animal species are often still dominant. Some woodlands are dominated by a mix of native woody species, including Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei), oak species (Quercus spp.), and other hardwoods. Other woodlands are nearly pure Ashe juniper; these are particularly susceptible to crown fires. The savannas were once, and still can be, maintained by surface fires. We hypothesize that frequent surface fires once kept some of the mixed woodlands more open and more diverse (a “lost community”) and that these fires would have reduced the abundance of Ashe juniper, which does not resprout from the base, and allowed oak regeneration, which is currently failing. The absence of fire, the current failure of oak regeneration, and high white-tailed deer densities together favor the “juniperization” of woodlands, that is, the conversion of mixed woodlands into nearly pure stands of Ashe juniper. Surface fires in savannas can sometimes control woody encroachment and the non-native grass King Ranch bluestem (Bothriochloa ischaemum), although the particular fire characteristics required are not yet clear. The current lack of fire in savannas favors their conversion to woodlands. Since under present conditions Ashe juniper is the primary encroacher, without fire or mechanical clearing these savannas are also on trajectories towards nearly pure stands of Ashe juniper. Prescribed fire, sometimes paired with mechanical thinning, offers land managers in this region a tool for achieving many goals, including increasing native biodiversity and reducing wildfire danger. However, more study of the effects of fires of different intensities and frequencies in these woodlands, savannas, and shrublands is needed to better inform the use of prescribed fire in this region.
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Pub Date : 2024-05-29DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00284-w
Gavin M. Jones, Marion A. Clément, Christopher E. Latimer, Marilyn E. Wright, Jamie S. Sanderlin, Shaula J. Hedwall, Rebecca Kirby
<p><b>Correction</b><b>: </b><b>Fire Ecol 20, 37 (2024)</b></p><p><b>https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00271-1</b></p><br/><p>In this article (Jones et al. 2024) the Data availability statement was missing and should have read: The data analyzed in the current study are not publicly available because of the sensitive nature of disclosing the locations of threatened and endangered species but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.</p><p>The original article (Jones et al. 2024) has been updated.</p><ul data-track-component="outbound reference"><li><p>Jones, G.M., M.A. Clément, C.E. Latimer, et al. 2024. Frequent burning and limited stand-replacing fire supports Mexican spotted owl pair occupancy. <i>fire ecol</i> 20: 37. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00271-1.</p><p>Article Google Scholar </p></li></ul><p>Download references<svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" height="16" role="img" width="16"><use xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-download-medium" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"></use></svg></p><h3>Authors and Affiliations</h3><ol><li><p>USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM, USA</p><p>Gavin M. Jones & Marilyn E. Wright</p></li><li><p>Bird Conservancy of the Rockies, Fort Collins, CO, USA</p><p>Marion A. Clément & Christopher E. Latimer</p></li><li><p>USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Flagstaff, AZ, USA</p><p>Jamie S. Sanderlin</p></li><li><p>US Fish and Wildlife Service, Arizona Fish & Wildlife Conservation Office, Flagstaff, AZ, USA</p><p>Shaula J. Hedwall</p></li><li><p>USDA Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, NM, USA</p><p>Rebecca Kirby</p></li></ol><span>Authors</span><ol><li><span>Gavin M. Jones</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Marion A. Clément</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Christopher E. Latimer</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Marilyn E. Wright</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Jamie S. Sanderlin</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Shaula J. Hedwall</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Rebecca Kirby</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li></ol><h3>Corresponding author</h3><p>Correspondence to Gavin M. Jones.</p><p><b>Open Access</b> This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, whic
更正：Fire Ecol 20, 37 (2024)https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00271-1In 这篇文章（Jones et al：由于披露受威胁和濒危物种位置的敏感性，本研究中分析的数据不对外公开，但可应合理要求从通讯作者处获得。原文（Jones et al. 2024）已更新。频繁的燃烧和有限的林分替代火支持墨西哥斑头鸺鹠的配对栖息。火灾生态 20: 37. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00271-1.Article Google Scholar 下载参考文献作者及工作单位美国农业部林务局，落基山研究站，阿尔伯克基，新墨西哥州，美国加文-M-琼斯及玛丽莲-E-赖特落基山脉鸟类保护协会，科罗拉多州科林斯堡，美国马里昂-A-克莱门特及克里斯托弗-E-拉提默美国农业部林务局，落基山研究站，阿尔伯克基，新墨西哥州，美国LatimerUSDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Flagstaff, AZ, USAJamie S. SanderlinUS Fish and Wildlife Service, Arizona Fish & Wildlife Conservation Office, Flagstaff, AZ, USAShaula J. HedwallUSDA Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, NM, USARebecca Kirby作者加文.Jones查看作者发表的文章您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Marion A. Clément查看作者发表的文章您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Christopher E. Latimer查看作者发表的文章您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Christopher E. Latimer。LatimerView作者发表论文您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Marilyn E. WrightView作者发表论文您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Jamie S. SanderlinView作者发表论文您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Shaula J. HedwallView作者发表论文您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者Rebecca KirbyView作者发表论文您也可以在PubMed Google Scholar中搜索该作者通信作者：Gavin M. Jones。Jones.Open Access本文采用知识共享署名 4.0 国际许可协议进行许可，该协议允许以任何媒介或格式使用、共享、改编、分发和复制本文，只要您适当注明原作者和来源，提供知识共享许可协议的链接，并说明是否进行了修改。本文中的图片或其他第三方材料均包含在文章的知识共享许可协议中，除非在材料的署名栏中另有说明。如果材料未包含在文章的知识共享许可协议中，且您打算使用的材料不符合法律规定或超出许可使用范围，您需要直接从版权所有者处获得许可。要查看该许可的副本，请访问 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Reprints and permissionsCite this articleJones, G.M., Clément, M.A., Latimer, C.E. et al. Correction：频繁的焚烧和有限的立地替代火支持墨西哥斑鸮的配对占用。Fire Ecol 20, 51 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00284-wDownload citationPublished: 29 May 2024DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00284-wShare this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy to clipboard Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative.
{"title":"Correction: Frequent burning and limited stand‑replacing fire supports Mexican spotted owl pair occupancy","authors":"Gavin M. Jones, Marion A. Clément, Christopher E. Latimer, Marilyn E. Wright, Jamie S. Sanderlin, Shaula J. Hedwall, Rebecca Kirby","doi":"10.1186/s42408-024-00284-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00284-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Correction</b><b>: </b><b>Fire Ecol 20, 37 (2024)</b></p><p><b>https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00271-1</b></p><br/><p>In this article (Jones et al. 2024) the Data availability statement was missing and should have read: The data analyzed in the current study are not publicly available because of the sensitive nature of disclosing the locations of threatened and endangered species but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.</p><p>The original article (Jones et al. 2024) has been updated.</p><ul data-track-component=\"outbound reference\"><li><p>Jones, G.M., M.A. Clément, C.E. Latimer, et al. 2024. Frequent burning and limited stand-replacing fire supports Mexican spotted owl pair occupancy. <i>fire ecol</i> 20: 37. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00271-1.</p><p>Article Google Scholar </p></li></ul><p>Download references<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" height=\"16\" role=\"img\" width=\"16\"><use xlink:href=\"#icon-eds-i-download-medium\" xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\"></use></svg></p><h3>Authors and Affiliations</h3><ol><li><p>USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM, USA</p><p>Gavin M. Jones & Marilyn E. Wright</p></li><li><p>Bird Conservancy of the Rockies, Fort Collins, CO, USA</p><p>Marion A. Clément & Christopher E. Latimer</p></li><li><p>USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Flagstaff, AZ, USA</p><p>Jamie S. Sanderlin</p></li><li><p>US Fish and Wildlife Service, Arizona Fish & Wildlife Conservation Office, Flagstaff, AZ, USA</p><p>Shaula J. Hedwall</p></li><li><p>USDA Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, NM, USA</p><p>Rebecca Kirby</p></li></ol><span>Authors</span><ol><li><span>Gavin M. Jones</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Marion A. Clément</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Christopher E. Latimer</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Marilyn E. Wright</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Jamie S. Sanderlin</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Shaula J. Hedwall</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li><li><span>Rebecca Kirby</span>View author publications<p>You can also search for this author in <span>PubMed<span> </span>Google Scholar</span></p></li></ol><h3>Corresponding author</h3><p>Correspondence to Gavin M. Jones.</p><p><b>Open Access</b> This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, whic","PeriodicalId":12273,"journal":{"name":"Fire Ecology","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141172254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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