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Assessing changes in global fire regimes 评估全球火灾机制的变化
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00237-9
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi, Benjamin W. Abbott, Boris Vannière, Bérangère Leys, Daniele Colombaroli, Graciela Gil Romera, Michał Słowiński, Julie C. Aleman, Olivier Blarquez, Angelica Feurdean, Kendrick Brown, Tuomas Aakala, Teija Alenius, Kathryn Allen, Maja Andric, Yves Bergeron, Siria Biagioni, Richard Bradshaw, Laurent Bremond, Elodie Brisset, Joseph Brooks, Sandra O. Brugger, Thomas Brussel, Haidee Cadd, Eleonora Cagliero, Christopher Carcaillet, Vachel Carter, Filipe X. Catry, Antoine Champreux, Emeline Chaste, Raphaël Daniel Chavardès, Melissa Chipman, Marco Conedera, Simon Connor, Mark Constantine, Colin Courtney Mustaphi, Abraham N. Dabengwa, William Daniels, Erik De Boer, Elisabeth Dietze, Joan Estrany, Paulo Fernandes, Walter Finsinger, Suzette G. A. Flantua, Paul Fox-Hughes, Dorian M. Gaboriau, Eugenia M.Gayo, Martin. P. Girardin, Jeffrey Glenn, Ramesh Glückler, Catalina González-Arango, Mariangelica Groves, Douglas S. Hamilton, Rebecca Jenner Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, K...
The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.
全球人类足迹已从根本上改变了野火机制,对人类健康、生物多样性和气候造成了严重后果。然而,要预测土地利用、管理和气候变化之间的长期相互作用将如何影响火灾行为仍然十分困难,这也是可持续管理方面的一个关键知识缺口。我们通过专家评估,综合了 99 位野火研究人员对过去和未来火灾机制的看法。我们要求对从全新世开始到 2300 年的火灾发生频率、类型和影响进行定量和定性评估。受访者表示,至少从公元前约 12000 年开始,人类就对野火产生了一些直接影响,尽管在公元前约 5000 年之前,对于大多数研究地区而言,自然气候变异仍是火系变化的主要驱动力。研究结果表明,与全新世的其他时期相比,过去 250 年间火灾变化的频率增加了十倍,这首先与土地利用的加强和扩大有关,其次与人为气候变化有关。展望未来,除草原生态系统外,所有生物群落的火灾发生频率、严重程度和规模都将加剧。不同生物群落的火灾机制对气候的敏感性不同,但在所有生物群落中,火灾机制发生变化的可能性随着气候变暖程度的增加而增加。据预测,在较高的排放情景下,大多数生物群落的生物多样性、碳储存和其他生态系统服务都会减少。我们提出了在新出现的火灾机制下适应和缓解的建议,同时认识到在较高排放情景下管理方案受到限制。在过去两个世纪中,人类对野火机制的影响与日俱增。土地和火灾管理策略应考虑从过去的火灾中获得的视角,但由于人类对植物群落、气候和其他因素前所未有的破坏,很可能出现新的火灾行为。除非积极减缓气候变化,否则未来的火灾机制很可能会降低关键的生态系统服务。专家评估是对经验数据和建模的补充,为火灾科学提供了更广阔的视角,为决策制定和未来研究重点提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
Service-learning to improve training, knowledge transfer, and awareness in forest fire management 通过服务学习改进森林火灾管理方面的培训、知识转让和认识
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00226-y
Pablo Souza-Alonso, Beatriz Omil, Alexandre Sotelino, David García-Romero, Eugenio Otero-Urtaza, Mar Lorenzo Moledo, Otilia Reyes, Juan Carlos Rodríguez, Javier Madrigal, Daniel Moya, Juan Ramón Molina, Francisco Rodriguez y Silva, Agustín Merino
Forest fires represent a severe threat to Mediterranean ecosystems and are considered one of the major environmental and socioeconomic problems of the region. The project Plantando cara al fuego (PCF, Spain) is designed to transfer knowledge and to improve the training of new generations in forest fire management. The project is based on the application of service-learning (S-L), an educational methodology that combines learning and community service. Conceived as a compendium of S-L initiatives, the PCF project is composed of several S-L projects with the objective of reducing the problem of forest fires. The individual projects are developed at the regional/local level, each one involving different social agents such as researchers, students (from different disciplines), schools, multidisciplinary professionals, NGOs, or the administration. Participants received an initial training in S-L to design projects focused on different aspects of forest fires (environmental awareness, outreach/communication, fire prevention or post-fire restoration). These applied projects are formally integrated in the learning process via curriculum, which serve to teach and reinforce transversal skills and allow students to get involved and work to solve real problems. In general, the response of the participants was highly favorable, since the projects served to create an atmosphere that facilitates learning, interaction between participants, the application of theoretical class contents, knowledge transfer, or the exchange of good teaching practices. The summary of the PCF project presented in this work serves as a practical guide describing the activities, participants, and the necessary steps involved in the design, development, and evaluation of S-L projects to address environmental problems. In this case, the S-L was adapted to a specific context (i.e., the problem of forest fires) to which it had never been previously applied, but this methodology is versatile and can be applied to different environmental issues.
森林火灾是对地中海生态系统的严重威胁,被认为是该地区主要的环境和社会经济问题之一。Plantando cara al fuego(PCF,西班牙)项目旨在传授知识,加强对新一代的森林火灾管理培训。该项目以服务学习(S-L)的应用为基础,这是一种将学习与社区服务相结合的教育方法。PCF 项目是 S-L 活动的汇编,由多个 S-L 项目组成,目的是减少森林火灾问题。每个项目都是在地区/地方层面开展的,涉及不同的社会主体,如研究人员、学生(来自不同学科)、学校、多学科专业人员、非政府组织或行政部门。参与者接受了 S-L 的初步培训,以设计侧重于森林火灾不同方面(环境意识、宣传/沟通、火灾预防或火灾后恢复)的项目。这些应用项目通过课程正式纳入学习过程,用于教授和强化横向技能,并让学生参与其中,努力解决实际问题。总体而言,参与者的反应非常好,因为这些项目有助于营造一种氛围,促进学习、参与者之间的互动、理论课内容的应用、知识传授或良好教学实践的交流。本作品中介绍的 PCF 项目摘要可作为实用指南,描述解决环境问题的 S-L 项目的设计、开发和评估所涉及的活动、参与者和必要步骤。在这一案例中,S-L 被调整以适应以前从未应用过的特定环境(即森林火灾问题),但这一方法是多用途的,可应用于不同的环境问题。
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引用次数: 0
Forest thinning and prescribed burning treatments reduce wildfire severity and buffer the impacts of severe fire weather 森林疏伐和规定的燃烧处理可降低野火的严重程度,缓冲恶劣火灾天气的影响
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00241-z
Emily G. Brodie, Eric E. Knapp, Wesley R. Brooks, Stacy A. Drury, Martin W. Ritchie
The capacity of forest fuel treatments to moderate the behavior and severity of subsequent wildfires depends on weather and fuel conditions at the time of burning. However, in-depth evaluations of how treatments perform are limited because encounters between wildfires and areas with extensive pre-fire data are rare. Here, we took advantage of a 1200-ha randomized and replicated experiment that burned almost entirely in a subsequent wildfire under a wide range of weather conditions. We compared the impacts of four fuel treatments on fire severity, including two thin-only, a thin-burn, a burn-only, and an untreated control. We evaluated four fire severity metrics—tree mortality, average bole char height, percent crown volume consumed (PCVC), and percent crown volume affected (PCVA)—and leveraged data from pre-fire surface and canopy fuels to better understand the mechanisms driving differences in wildfire severity among treatments and how they changed with fire weather. We found strong mitigating effects of treatments on fire behavior and tree mortality, despite 20 years having elapsed since mechanical thinning and 10 years since the second entry of prescribed fire. The thin-burn treatment resulted in the lowest fire severity across all four metrics and the untreated control the highest. All four fire severity metrics were positively associated with pre-fire canopy and surface fuel loads, with the exception that PCVC (a fire severity metric related to crown fire behavior) was not associated with surface fuel load. The fire weather conditions under which fuel treatment was most effective varied among fire severity metrics. Fuel treatment benefit was maximized at intermediate burning index values for tree mortality, intermediate to high burning index values for PCVA, and high burning index for bole char height and PCVC. We conclude that reducing canopy bulk density via mechanical thinning treatments can help to limit crown fire behavior for 20 years or more. However, reducing surface fuels is necessary to limit scorching and the total crown impacts associated with tree mortality. Further, while fuel treatment effectiveness may decline under the most severe fire weather conditions for fire severity metrics associated with tree mortality, it is maximized under severe fire weather conditions for fire severity metrics associated with crown fire behavior (bole charring and torching). Our results provide strong evidence for the use of fuel treatments to mitigate fire behavior and resulting fire severity even under extreme fire weather conditions.
森林燃料处理能否缓和后续野火的行为和严重程度,取决于燃烧时的天气和燃料条件。然而,由于野火与具有大量火前数据的地区之间的相遇非常罕见,因此对处理效果的深入评估非常有限。在这里,我们利用了一个 1200 公顷的随机重复实验,该实验在各种天气条件下几乎完全在随后的野火中燃烧。我们比较了四种燃料处理方法对火灾严重性的影响,包括两种纯稀释、一种稀释-燃烧、一种纯燃烧和一种未处理对照。我们评估了四种火灾严重性指标--树木死亡率、平均树干炭化高度、消耗树冠体积百分比 (PCVC) 和受影响树冠体积百分比 (PCVA),并利用火灾前地表和树冠燃料数据,以更好地了解不同处理方法之间野火严重性差异的驱动机制,以及它们如何随火灾天气而变化。我们发现,尽管机械疏伐已经过去了 20 年,而第二次使用规定火源也已经过去了 10 年,但处理方法对火灾行为和树木死亡率仍有很强的缓解作用。在所有四项指标中,稀疏燃烧处理的火灾严重程度最低,而未处理的对照组火灾严重程度最高。所有四项火灾严重程度指标都与火灾前的树冠和地表燃料负荷呈正相关,但 PCVC(与树冠火灾行为有关的火灾严重程度指标)与地表燃料负荷无关。在不同的火灾严重程度指标下,燃料处理最有效的火灾天气条件各不相同。在树木死亡率的中等燃烧指数值、PCVA 的中等至高燃烧指数值以及木焦高度和 PCVC 的高燃烧指数值条件下,燃料处理的效益最大。我们的结论是,通过机械疏伐处理降低树冠体积密度有助于在 20 年或更长时间内限制树冠火灾行为。然而,要限制焦烧和与树木死亡相关的树冠总影响,就必须减少地表燃料。此外,虽然在最严重的火灾天气条件下,与树木死亡率相关的火灾严重性指标的燃料处理效果可能会下降,但在严重的火灾天气条件下,与树冠火灾行为相关的火灾严重性指标(树干炭化和灼烧)的燃料处理效果却最大。我们的研究结果提供了强有力的证据,证明即使在极端火灾天气条件下,也可以利用燃料处理来减轻火灾行为和由此造成的火灾严重程度。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental health of wildland firefighters: a scoping review 野地消防员的环境健康:范围界定审查
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00235-x
M. Bryan Held, Miranda Rose Ragland, Sage Wood, Amelia Pearson, Seth Wayne Pearson, Olivia Chenevert, Rachel Marie Granberg, Robin Michelle Verble
Wildland firefighters are likely to experience heightened risks to safety, health, and overall well-being as changing climates increase the frequency and intensity of exposure to natural hazards. Working at the intersection of natural resource management and emergency response, wildland firefighters have multidimensional careers that often incorporate elements from disparate fields to accomplish the tasks of suppressing and preventing wildfires. Thus, they have distinctly different job duties than other firefighters (e.g., structural firefighters) and experience environmental health risks that are unique to their work. We conducted a systematic scoping review of scientific literature that addresses wildland firefighter environmental health. Our goal was to identify studies that specifically addressed wildland firefighters (as opposed to firefighters in a broader sense), geographic and demographic trends, sample sizes, patterns in analysis, and common categories of research. Most studies have clustered in a few highly developed countries, and in the United States within California and Idaho. Many studies fail to consider the impact that demographic factors may have on their results. The number of studies published annually is increasing and themes are broadening to include social and psychological topics; however, most authors in the field have published an average of < 3 articles. We identify three areas that we believe are imminent priorities for researchers and policymakers, including a lack of diversity in study geography and demography, a need for more complex and interactive analyses of exposure, and prioritization of wildland firefighters in research funding and focus.
随着气候的变化,野地消防员面临的安全、健康和整体福祉风险可能会增加,因为他们暴露在自然灾害中的频率和强度也会增加。野外消防员的工作与自然资源管理和应急响应交织在一起,他们的职业生涯具有多面性,往往要结合不同领域的要素才能完成扑灭和预防野火的任务。因此,他们的工作职责与其他消防员(如结构性消防员)截然不同,并经历着其工作所特有的环境健康风险。我们对涉及野地消防员环境健康的科学文献进行了系统的范围界定审查。我们的目标是确定专门针对野地消防员(而不是广义上的消防员)、地理和人口趋势、样本大小、分析模式以及常见研究类别的研究。大多数研究都集中在少数几个高度发达的国家以及美国的加利福尼亚州和爱达荷州。许多研究没有考虑人口因素对研究结果的影响。每年发表的研究报告数量在不断增加,主题也在不断扩大,包括社会和心理主题;但是,该领域的大多数作者平均发表的文章数量少于 3 篇。我们确定了三个领域,认为它们是研究人员和政策制定者迫在眉睫的优先事项,包括研究地域和人口统计缺乏多样性、需要对暴露进行更复杂和互动的分析,以及在研究资金和重点方面优先考虑野地消防员。
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引用次数: 0
Landscape controls on fuel moisture variability in fire-prone heathland and peatland landscapes 火灾易发荒地和泥炭地景观对燃料水分变化的景观控制
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00248-0
Kerryn Little, Laura J Graham, Mike Flannigan, Claire M Belcher, Nicholas Kettridge
Cross-landscape fuel moisture content is highly variable but not considered in existing fire danger assessments. Capturing fuel moisture complexity and its associated controls is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and danger in emerging fire-prone environments that are influenced by local heterogeneity. This is particularly true for temperate heathland and peatland landscapes that exhibit spatial differences in the vulnerability of their globally important carbon stores to wildfire. Here we quantified the range of variability in the live and dead fuel moisture of Calluna vulgaris across a temperate fire-prone landscape through an intensive fuel moisture sampling campaign conducted in the North Yorkshire Moors, UK. We also evaluated the landscape (soil texture, canopy age, aspect, and slope) and micrometeorological (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and windspeed) drivers of landscape fuel moisture variability for temperate heathlands and peatlands for the first time. We observed high cross-landscape fuel moisture variation, which created a spatial discontinuity in the availability of live fuels for wildfire spread (fuel moisture < 65%) and vulnerability of the organic layer to smoldering combustion (fuel moisture < 250%). This heterogeneity was most important in spring, which is also the peak wildfire season in these temperate ecosystems. Landscape and micrometeorological factors explained up to 72% of spatial fuel moisture variation and were season- and fuel-layer-dependent. Landscape factors predominantly controlled spatial fuel moisture content beyond modifying local micrometeorology. Accounting for direct landscape–fuel moisture relationships could improve fuel moisture estimates, as existing estimates derived solely from micrometeorological observations will exclude the underlying influence of landscape characteristics. We hypothesize that differences in soil texture, canopy age, and aspect play important roles across the fuel layers examined, with the main differences in processes arising between live, dead, and surface/ground fuels. We also highlight the critical role of fuel phenology in assessing landscape fuel moisture variations in temperate environments. Understanding the mechanisms driving fuel moisture variability opens opportunities to develop locally robust fuel models for input into wildfire danger rating systems, adding versatility to wildfire danger assessments as a management tool.
跨地形的燃料水分含量变化很大,但在现有的火灾危险评估中却没有考虑到这一点。把握燃料湿度的复杂性及其相关控制因素,对于了解受当地异质性影响的新兴火灾易发环境中的野火行为和危险性至关重要。这对于温带荒漠地和泥炭地景观来说尤其如此,因为它们具有全球重要意义的碳储存对野火的脆弱性存在空间差异。在这里,我们通过在英国北约克郡沼泽地进行的密集燃料水分取样活动,量化了温带火灾易发地貌中Calluna vulgaris的活和死燃料水分的变化范围。我们还首次评估了温带热地和泥炭地景观燃料水分变化的景观(土壤质地、树冠年龄、地势和坡度)和微气象(温度、相对湿度、蒸气压差和风速)驱动因素。我们观察到跨地貌的燃料水分变化很大,这在野火蔓延的活燃料可用性(燃料水分小于 65%)和有机层易燃性(燃料水分小于 250%)方面造成了空间上的不连续性。这种异质性在春季最为重要,春季也是这些温带生态系统的野火高峰期。景观和微气象因素解释了高达 72% 的空间燃料水分变化,并且与季节和燃料层有关。景观因素主要控制空间燃料水分含量,而不是改变当地的微观气象。考虑景观与燃料水分的直接关系可以改进燃料水分的估算,因为现有的仅从微观气象观测得出的估算将排除景观特征的潜在影响。我们假设,土壤质地、树冠年龄和坡度的差异在所考察的燃料层中起着重要作用,而过程的主要差异则出现在活燃料、死燃料和地表/地面燃料之间。我们还强调了燃料物候学在评估温带环境中景观燃料水分变化中的关键作用。了解了燃料水分变化的驱动机制,我们就有机会开发出适合当地情况的燃料模型,并将其输入野火危险等级系统,从而增加野火危险评估作为管理工具的多功能性。
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引用次数: 0
Using witness trees as pyro-indicators to depict past fire environments across the eastern United States 利用见证树作为火烧指标,描绘美国东部过去的火灾环境
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00247-1
Gregory J. Nowacki, Melissa A. Thomas-Van Gundy
Understanding past fire environments is vitally important for applying silvicultural treatments, which often include prescribed burning to restore fire-dependent ecosystems. We have developed a novel method by which witness trees can be used as pyro-indicators to map past fire environments. The stepwise process first involves partitioning witness trees into two classes, pyrophobic and pyrophilic, based on their known ecophysiological traits. Pyrophilic percentages are then calculated at survey corners by dividing the number of pyrophilic trees by the total number of trees. Next, statistical spatial interpolation is applied to this point-based data set to produce a continuous response surface of pyrophilic percentages. The resultant maps capture gradients of fire importance across the pre-European-settlement landscape, which can be coupled with historic fire regime maps, thus providing additional information for better understanding and explaining past fire environments. We have applied this technique to various available witness-tree databases across the eastern United States. This paper serves as a compendium of our collective work to date.
了解过去的火灾环境对于应用造林措施至关重要,造林措施通常包括规定燃烧,以恢复依赖火灾的生态系统。我们开发了一种新方法,可以利用见证树作为火烧指标来绘制过去的火灾环境。该方法首先根据见证树的已知生态生理特征将其分为疏火和亲火两类。然后,通过将嗜热树木的数量除以树木总数,计算出调查角的嗜热百分比。然后,对这个基于点的数据集进行统计空间插值,以产生一个连续的亲热性百分比响应面。由此绘制的地图可以捕捉到欧洲定居前地貌中火灾重要性的梯度,并与历史火灾分布图相结合,从而为更好地理解和解释过去的火灾环境提供更多信息。我们已将这一技术应用于美国东部现有的各种见证树数据库。本文是我们迄今为止集体工作的汇编。
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引用次数: 0
Midwest prairie management practices benefit the non-target prairie crayfish 中西部草原管理措施有利于非目标草原小龙虾
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00243-x
Caitlin C. Bloomer, Christopher M. Miller, Robert J. DiStefano, Christopher A. Taylor
Prescribed burning is used to duplicate natural, pre-settlement prairie successional processes. It is an essential and commonly used tool to promote and protect biodiversity and enhance ecosystem function in tallgrass prairie remnants throughout the midwestern United States. The responses to prescribed burns vary widely among faunal groups. We conducted the first study into the response of the prairie crayfish (Procambarus gracilis Bundy) to periodic prescribed burns and other management activities in a tallgrass prairie in Northern Missouri. This species relies on natural and restored prairies across its broad distribution, but little is known on how to actively manage these populations. We found that the density of the prairie crayfish burrows did not vary in response to the burn regime; however, other management activities like the installation of artificial ponds for amphibians and reptiles were directly benefitting this species. Observations indicate that prairie crayfish may also show positive associations with warm-season grass stands and vegetation management should be further explored. The current prairie management practices for vegetation, quail, and herpetofauna are having beneficial or neutral effects on non-target taxa like the prairie crayfish. The value of crayfish and their burrows in prairies is well-established. Conservation biologists should continue to examine how burrowing crayfish are responding to management practices for other taxa to explicitly manage and promote these populations.
规定焚烧用于复制自然的、定居前的草原演替过程。在整个美国中西部地区的高草草原遗迹中,这是一种促进和保护生物多样性以及增强生态系统功能的重要且常用的工具。不同动物群落对规定焚烧的反应差异很大。我们首次研究了草原螯虾(Procambarus gracilis Bundy)对密苏里州北部高草草原的定期烧荒和其他管理活动的反应。该物种在其广阔的分布区内依赖于天然草原和恢复后的草原,但对于如何积极管理这些种群却知之甚少。我们发现,草原螯虾洞穴的密度并不随烧荒制度的变化而变化;然而,其他管理活动,如为两栖类和爬行类动物安装人工池塘,则直接使该物种受益。观察结果表明,草原螯虾也可能与暖季型草地有积极的联系,因此应进一步探索植被管理。目前的草原植被、鹌鹑和爬行动物管理措施对草原小龙虾等非目标类群产生了有益或中性的影响。小龙虾及其洞穴在草原上的价值已得到公认。保护生物学家应继续研究穴居小龙虾如何对其他类群的管理措施做出反应,以明确管理和促进这些种群的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Guiding principles for transdisciplinary and transformative fire research 跨学科和变革性火灾研究的指导原则
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00244-w
Kelsey Copes-Gerbitz, Ira J. Sutherland, Sarah Dickson-Hoyle, Jennifer N. Baron, Pablo Gonzalez-Moctezuma, Morgan A. Crowley, Katherine A. Kitchens, Tahia Devisscher, Judith Burr
Managing landscape fire is a complex challenge because it is simultaneously necessary for, and increasingly poses a risk to, societies and ecosystems worldwide. This challenge underscores the need for transformative change in the way societies live with and manage fire. While researchers have the potential to act as agents of transformative change, in practice, the ability to affect change is often constrained by siloed and biased expertise, rigid decision-making institutions, and increasingly vulnerable social-ecological systems where urgent rather than long-term solutions are prioritized. Addressing these challenges requires more holistic and equitable approaches to fire research that promote new models of transdisciplinary thinking, collaboration, and practice. To advance transformative solutions to this complex fire challenge, we propose four principles for conducting transdisciplinary fire research: (1) embrace complexity, (2) promote diverse ways of knowing fire, (3) foster transformative learning, and (4) practice problem-centered research. These principles emerged from our experience as a group of early-career researchers who are embedded within and motivated by today’s complex fire challenge within British Columbia (BC), Canada. In this forum piece, we first describe the four principles and then apply the principles to two case studies: (1) BC, a settler-colonial context experiencing increased size, severity, and impacts of wildfires, and (2) our ECR discussion group, a space of collective learning and transformation. In doing so, we present a unique contribution that builds on existing efforts to develop more holistic fire research frameworks and demonstrates how application of these principles can promote transdisciplinary research and transformation towards coexistence with fire, from local to global scales. In this forum piece, we identify and apply four guiding principles for transdisciplinary fire research. Collectively, these principles can foster more inclusive applied fire research that matches the scope and scale of today’s fire challenge and promotes transformative change towards coexisting with fire.
地貌火灾管理是一项复杂的挑战,因为它对全世界的社会和生态系统既是必要的,又日益构成威胁。这一挑战突出表明,有必要转变社会与火灾共存和管理火灾的方式。虽然研究人员有可能成为变革的推动者,但在实践中,影响变革的能力往往受到各自为政和有偏见的专业知识、僵化的决策机构以及日益脆弱的社会生态系统的制约,因为在这些系统中,优先考虑的是紧急而非长期的解决方案。要应对这些挑战,就必须采用更加全面和公平的方法开展消防研究,促进跨学科思维、合作和实践的新模式。为了推动以变革的方式解决这一复杂的火灾挑战,我们提出了开展跨学科火灾研究的四项原则:(1) 拥抱复杂性,(2) 推广认识火灾的多样化方式,(3) 促进变革性学习,(4) 开展以问题为中心的研究。这些原则源自我们这群早期职业研究人员的经验,他们身处加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省(BC 省),并受到当今复杂的火灾挑战的激励。在这篇论坛文章中,我们首先介绍了这四项原则,然后将这些原则应用到两个案例研究中:(1) 不列颠哥伦比亚省,这是一个移民殖民地,野火的规模、严重程度和影响都在增加;(2) 我们的 ECR 讨论小组,这是一个集体学习和转变的空间。在此过程中,我们提出了一项独特的贡献,即在现有努力的基础上制定更全面的火灾研究框架,并展示如何应用这些原则促进跨学科研究和转型,以实现从地方到全球范围内与火灾的共存。在这篇论坛文章中,我们确定并应用了跨学科火灾研究的四项指导原则。总之,这些原则可以促进更具包容性的火灾应用研究,以应对当今火灾挑战的范围和规模,并推动实现与火灾共存的变革。
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引用次数: 0
Wildfire risk exploration: leveraging SHAP and TabNet for precise factor analysis 野火风险探索:利用 SHAP 和 TabNet 进行精确因子分析
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-023-00236-w
Faiza Qayyum, Harun Jamil, Tariq Alsboui, Mohammad Hijjawi
Understanding the intricacies of wildfire impact across diverse geographical landscapes necessitates a nuanced comprehension of fire dynamics and areas of vulnerability, particularly in regions prone to high wildfire risks. Machine learning (ML) stands as a formidable ally in addressing the complexities associated with predicting and mapping these risks, offering advanced analytical capabilities. Nevertheless, the reliability of such ML approaches is heavily contingent on the integrity of data and the robustness of training protocols. The scientific community has raised concerns about the transparency and interpretability of ML models in the context of wildfire management, recognizing the need for these models to be both accurate and understandable. The often-opaque nature of complex ML algorithms can obscure the rationale behind their outputs, making it imperative to prioritize clarity and interpretability to ensure that model predictions are not only precise but also actionable. Furthermore, a thorough evaluation of model performance must account for multiple critical factors to ensure the utility and dependability of the results in practical wildfire suppression and management strategies. This study unveils a sophisticated spatial deep learning framework grounded in TabNet technology, tailored specifically for delineating areas susceptible to wildfires. To elucidate the predictive interplay between the model’s outputs and the contributing variables across a spectrum of inputs, we embark on an exhaustive analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). This approach affords a granular understanding of how individual features sway the model’s predictions. Furthermore, the robustness of the predictive model is rigorously validated through 5-fold cross-validation techniques, ensuring the dependability of the findings. The research meticulously investigates the spatial heterogeneity of wildfire susceptibility within the designated study locale, unearthing pivotal insights into the nuanced fabric of fire risk that is distinctly local in nature. Utilizing SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) visualizations, this research meticulously identifies key variables, quantifies their importance, and demystifies the decision-making mechanics of the model. Critical factors, including temperature, elevation, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), aspect, and wind speed, are discerned to have significant sway over the predictions of wildfire susceptibility. The findings of this study accentuate the criticality of transparency in modeling, which facilitates a deeper understanding of wildfire risk factors. By shedding light on the significant predictors within the models, this work enhances our ability to interpret complex predictive models and drives forward the field of wildfire risk management, ultimately contributing to the development of more effective prevention and mitigation strategies.
要了解野火在不同地理地貌中产生的错综复杂的影响,就必须对火灾动态和易发地区有细致入微的了解,尤其是在野火风险较高的地区。机器学习(ML)提供了先进的分析能力,是解决与预测和绘制这些风险相关的复杂问题的强大盟友。然而,此类 ML 方法的可靠性在很大程度上取决于数据的完整性和训练协议的稳健性。科学界对野火管理背景下的 ML 模型的透明度和可解释性表示担忧,认为这些模型既要准确又要易于理解。复杂的 ML 算法往往具有模糊性,可能会掩盖其输出结果背后的原理,因此必须优先考虑清晰度和可解释性,以确保模型预测不仅准确,而且可操作。此外,对模型性能的全面评估必须考虑多个关键因素,以确保结果在实际野火扑救和管理策略中的实用性和可靠性。本研究揭示了一个基于 TabNet 技术的复杂空间深度学习框架,该框架专为划定易受野火影响的区域而量身定制。为了阐明该模型的输出结果与各种输入变量之间的预测性相互作用,我们使用 SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)进行了详尽的分析。通过这种方法,我们可以详细了解各个特征是如何影响模型预测的。此外,预测模型的稳健性还通过 5 倍交叉验证技术得到了严格验证,从而确保了研究结果的可靠性。该研究对指定研究区域内野火易发性的空间异质性进行了细致的调查,揭示了具有鲜明地方特色的火灾风险的细微结构。利用 SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)可视化技术,这项研究细致地确定了关键变量,量化了这些变量的重要性,并揭开了模型决策机制的神秘面纱。研究发现,温度、海拔、归一化植被指数 (NDVI)、方位和风速等关键因素对野火易感性的预测具有重要影响。这项研究的结果突出了建模透明度的重要性,有助于加深对野火风险因素的理解。通过揭示模型中的重要预测因素,这项工作提高了我们解释复杂预测模型的能力,推动了野火风险管理领域的发展,最终有助于制定更有效的预防和缓解策略。
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引用次数: 0
Plant-plant interactions influence post-fire recovery depending on fire history and nurse growth form 植物与植物之间的相互作用会影响火灾后的恢复,这取决于火灾历史和哺育植物的生长形式
IF 5.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00246-2
Maral Bashirzadeh, Mehdi Abedi, Mohammad Farzam
Plant-plant interactions are among the most important factors affecting the natural recovery of vegetation. While the impacts of nurse plants on species composition and biodiversity are well documented, the effects of different nurse’s growth forms on all biodiversity components including taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity have been less studied and compared, especially for their effects on different times after fire disturbance. This research was focused on comparing the effects of a perennial grass (Elymus hispidens), a perennial herb (Phlomis cancellata), and a high shrub species (Lonicera nummulariifolia) on species composition and the biodiversity components, and how these impacts change across five sites with short-term (1 and 4 years sites), long-term (10 and 20 years sites) times since last fire and a control site where no fire was known in recorded history in semi-arid shrublands of Fereizi Chenaran located in Northeast of Iran. The changes of species composition and taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity were calculated with respect to the presence/absence of nurse’s growth forms, fire history, and their interactions. Nurse shrubs affected species composition and all biodiversity components, whereas all indices were reduced when considering Elymus grass as nurse plant. On the other hand, the herb Phlomis enhanced species composition and taxonomic diversity, while it had a negative effect on functional and phylogenetic diversity. Such specific effects of nurse types were mostly observed under long timescales (i.e., 10- and 20-year sites). Interestingly, the relative importance of nurse types and time since the last fire largely explained the variation of species composition and biodiversity components, with larger effects of nurse types on all biodiversity components. However, we found a significant contribution of fire explaining variation of species composition and phylogenetic diversity. These results indicated nurse plants can affect the post-fire recovery of vegetation by providing specific mechanisms controlling beneficiary relatedness depending on their growth forms and time scales since the last fire. Therefore, these findings suggest perennial plants in the form of nurse species as a useful factor to develop techniques of active restoration in burned ecosystems.
植物与植物之间的相互作用是影响植被自然恢复的最重要因素之一。虽然护生植物对物种组成和生物多样性的影响已被充分记录,但不同护生植物的生长形式对所有生物多样性组成部分(包括分类、功能和系统发育多样性)的影响的研究和比较却较少,尤其是它们对火灾干扰后不同时期的影响。这项研究的重点是比较一种多年生草(Elymus hispidens)、一种多年生草本植物(Phlomis cancellata)和一种高灌木物种(Lonicera nummulariifolia)对物种组成和生物多样性组成部分的影响、在位于伊朗东北部的 Fereizi Chenaran 半干旱灌木林地中,研究了自上次火灾后短期(1 年和 4 年)、长期(10 年和 20 年)和有记录以来未发生过火灾的对照地点对物种组成和生物多样性组成部分的影响,以及这些影响在五个地点的变化情况。计算了物种组成的变化以及分类学、功能和系统发育多样性与有/无护林生长形式、火灾历史及其相互作用的关系。护生灌木影响了物种组成和所有生物多样性成分,而将酢浆草作为护生植物时,所有指数都有所降低。另一方面,草本植物 Phlomis 增强了物种组成和分类多样性,但对功能和系统发育多样性有负面影响。在长时间尺度下(即 10 年和 20 年的地点),主要观察到了哺育类型的这种特定影响。有趣的是,哺育类型的相对重要性和上次火灾后的时间在很大程度上解释了物种组成和生物多样性成分的变化,哺育类型对所有生物多样性成分的影响都较大。然而,我们发现火灾在解释物种组成和系统发育多样性的变化方面具有重要作用。这些结果表明,哺乳类植物可根据其生长形式和上次火灾后的时间尺度,通过控制受益亲缘关系的特定机制来影响火灾后植被的恢复。因此,这些研究结果表明,多年生植物是发展烧毁生态系统积极恢复技术的一个有用因素。
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Fire Ecology
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