首页 > 最新文献

Forensic science international最新文献

英文 中文
Microscopic characterisation of dental fractures caused by firearm projectiles 枪械弹丸引起的牙骨折的显微特征
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112819
Ángel Rubio Salvador , Lydia P. Sánchez-Barba Muñoz , Fernando Navarro Merino , Jesús M. Úbeda-Portugués , Aristeidis Strimenopoulos , Paula Yanke , Elena Vera-Cruz , Marina Lozano
The analysis of bone injuries resulting from high-velocity firearm projectile trauma is a complex process, due to the influence of numerous variables on the resultant injury patterns. This complexity is particularly evident in specific skeletal regions, such as the oral cavity and teeth, which have received minimal attention in forensic research. In this study, four fractured teeth from an individual interred in a mass grave dating to the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) in Seville, Spain, were analysed to assess gunshot-related trauma.The teeth were examined using digital 3D microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). This analysis enabled the identification of features in the dental tissue indicative of perimortem trauma, including characteristics related to the fracture response of living or hydrated dental tissue. Additionally, variations in damage —such as edges, surfaces, and fracture lines— were observed, depending on the proximity of the teeth to the projectile’s impact point in the oral cavity. Notably, surface damage presenting as pits was identified, with morphologies and patterns potentially linked to the forces generated by the projectile. These findings suggest that such microscopic features may serve as indicators of ballistic trauma, even in the absence of prior microscopic analyses of dental tissues.
高速弹丸伤致骨损伤的分析是一个复杂的过程,其损伤模式受多种因素的影响。这种复杂性在特定的骨骼区域尤其明显,例如口腔和牙齿,在法医研究中很少受到关注。在这项研究中,研究人员分析了在西班牙塞维利亚的一个万人坑中埋葬的一个人的四颗断裂牙齿,以评估与枪击有关的创伤。该万人坑可追溯到西班牙内战(1936-1939)。采用数字三维显微镜和扫描电子显微镜(SEM)对牙齿进行检查。这一分析能够识别出表明死前创伤的牙组织特征,包括与活的或水合的牙组织骨折反应相关的特征。此外,观察到损伤的变化,如边缘、表面和断裂线,这取决于牙齿与弹丸在口腔中的撞击点的接近程度。值得注意的是,表面损伤表现为凹坑,其形态和模式可能与弹丸产生的力有关。这些发现表明,即使在没有事先对牙齿组织进行显微镜分析的情况下,这些显微镜特征也可以作为弹道创伤的指标。
{"title":"Microscopic characterisation of dental fractures caused by firearm projectiles","authors":"Ángel Rubio Salvador ,&nbsp;Lydia P. Sánchez-Barba Muñoz ,&nbsp;Fernando Navarro Merino ,&nbsp;Jesús M. Úbeda-Portugués ,&nbsp;Aristeidis Strimenopoulos ,&nbsp;Paula Yanke ,&nbsp;Elena Vera-Cruz ,&nbsp;Marina Lozano","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The analysis of bone injuries resulting from high-velocity firearm projectile trauma is a complex process, due to the influence of numerous variables on the resultant injury patterns. This complexity is particularly evident in specific skeletal regions, such as the oral cavity and teeth, which have received minimal attention in forensic research. In this study, four fractured teeth from an individual interred in a mass grave dating to the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) in Seville, Spain, were analysed to assess gunshot-related trauma.The teeth were examined using digital 3D microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). This analysis enabled the identification of features in the dental tissue indicative of perimortem trauma, including characteristics related to the fracture response of living or hydrated dental tissue. Additionally, variations in damage —such as edges, surfaces, and fracture lines— were observed, depending on the proximity of the teeth to the projectile’s impact point in the oral cavity. Notably, surface damage presenting as pits was identified, with morphologies and patterns potentially linked to the forces generated by the projectile. These findings suggest that such microscopic features may serve as indicators of ballistic trauma, even in the absence of prior microscopic analyses of dental tissues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112819"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identification of the brands of the inkjet printers used in the altered document identification proficiency test: Combination of chemical analysis with conventional morphological examination 涂改文件鉴定能力测试用喷墨打印机的品牌鉴定:化学分析与常规形态检查相结合
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112818
Xu Hu , Xiao-guang Jia , Ling-yun Zhang , Xiao-xia Zhang , Hui Zhang
The altered document identification proficiency test of the China National Accreditation Service for Conformity Assessment (CNAS), initiated by the China Academy of Forensic Science in 2022, provided a specially prepared questioned document sample. This challenging case sample rendered conventional morphological examination methods virtually ineffective. As a result, only a low percentage of judicial appraisal institutions received the “satisfactory” rating. This work examined the characteristics of the inkjet printers used in the proficiency test from two independent perspectives, by combining volatile solvent composition analysis of printing inks using GC–MS creatively with conventional morphological examination. This work not only efficiently determined whether there was appended content via a secondary printing pass in the case sample, but also further identified the brands of the inkjet printers used to prepare the sample of the proficiency test. Finally, precautions for identifying the brands of inkjet printers were summarized. We hope this work will underscore the importance of incorporating physical and chemical analytical methods in questioned document examination and draw forensic examiners’ attention to its necessity.
由中国法医学研究院于2022年发起的中国合格评定国家认可委员会(CNAS)变更文件识别能力测试,提供了专门准备的质疑文件样本。这种具有挑战性的病例样本使得传统的形态学检查方法几乎无效。因此,只有很低比例的司法鉴定机构获得“满意”评级。本研究创造性地将气相色谱-质谱联用分析印刷油墨挥发性溶剂成分与传统形态学检查相结合,从两个独立的角度考察了用于能力测试的喷墨打印机的特性。这项工作不仅有效地确定了案例样品中是否有附加内容,而且还进一步确定了用于准备能力测试样品的喷墨打印机的品牌。最后总结了识别喷墨打印机品牌的注意事项。我们希望这项工作将强调将物理和化学分析方法纳入可疑文件检查的重要性,并提请法医检查人员注意其必要性。
{"title":"Identification of the brands of the inkjet printers used in the altered document identification proficiency test: Combination of chemical analysis with conventional morphological examination","authors":"Xu Hu ,&nbsp;Xiao-guang Jia ,&nbsp;Ling-yun Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiao-xia Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The altered document identification proficiency test of the China National Accreditation Service for Conformity Assessment (CNAS), initiated by the China Academy of Forensic Science in 2022, provided a specially prepared questioned document sample. This challenging case sample rendered conventional morphological examination methods virtually ineffective. As a result, only a low percentage of judicial appraisal institutions received the “satisfactory” rating. This work examined the characteristics of the inkjet printers used in the proficiency test from two independent perspectives, by combining volatile solvent composition analysis of printing inks using GC–MS creatively with conventional morphological examination. This work not only efficiently determined whether there was appended content via a secondary printing pass in the case sample, but also further identified the brands of the inkjet printers used to prepare the sample of the proficiency test. Finally, precautions for identifying the brands of inkjet printers were summarized. We hope this work will underscore the importance of incorporating physical and chemical analytical methods in questioned document examination and draw forensic examiners’ attention to its necessity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112818"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A robust synthetic face detector in OSN context based on Gradient of Color features 基于颜色梯度特征的OSN环境下鲁棒合成人脸检测器
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112817
Tanusree Ghosh, Ruchira Naskar
Extensive development in Generative Artificial Intelligence and the growth of Online Social Networks have facilitated the creation and sharing of synthetic images like never before. This has led to an overwhelming increase in the dissemination of fake content on OSNs. Maintaining the integrity of OSNs is paramount, and detecting synthetic images plays a crucial role in preserving social balance. Existing solutions, while achieving perfect detection performance on test datasets, often experience significant degradation when applied to OSN images. In our work, we propose a robust fake image detector that relies on features minimally affected by common OSN perturbations. Specifically, our solution leverages gradient features in color channels, including chrominance and luminance channels, accompanied by a residual-based CNN. Our low-parameterized solution is characterized by low complexity, making it particularly resource-efficient and suitable for edge devices.
Thorough experiments demonstrate that our method achieves 100% accuracy in identifying fake images on our test dataset. We further evaluate the approach on images generated by contemporary generative adversarial networks and diffusion models, where it consistently exhibits strong detection performance. In addition, when applied to images that undergo post-processing operations designed to mimic OSN circulation, the proposed detector maintains high accuracy and robustness. Overall, results indicate that our proposed gradient-based color-channel features, coupled with a low-complexity residual network, provide an effective and OSN-resilient solution for synthetic image detection across both generic and post-processed/compressed scenarios.
生成式人工智能的广泛发展和在线社交网络的增长为合成图像的创建和共享提供了前所未有的便利。这导致了在osn上传播虚假内容的压倒性增长。维护osn的完整性至关重要,而检测合成图像在维护社会平衡中起着至关重要的作用。现有的解决方案虽然在测试数据集上实现了完美的检测性能,但在应用于OSN图像时往往会出现明显的下降。在我们的工作中,我们提出了一种鲁棒的假图像检测器,它依赖于受常见OSN扰动影响最小的特征。具体来说,我们的解决方案利用了颜色通道中的梯度特征,包括色度和亮度通道,以及基于残差的CNN。我们的低参数化解决方案具有低复杂性的特点,使其特别具有资源效率,适合边缘设备。实验表明,我们的方法在我们的测试数据集上识别假图像的准确率达到100%。我们进一步评估了当代生成对抗网络和扩散模型生成的图像上的方法,它始终表现出强大的检测性能。此外,当应用于经过后处理操作的图像来模拟OSN循环时,所提出的检测器保持高精度和鲁棒性。总体而言,结果表明,我们提出的基于梯度的颜色通道特征,加上低复杂度的残差网络,为通用和后处理/压缩场景下的合成图像检测提供了有效且具有osn弹性的解决方案。
{"title":"A robust synthetic face detector in OSN context based on Gradient of Color features","authors":"Tanusree Ghosh,&nbsp;Ruchira Naskar","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extensive development in Generative Artificial Intelligence and the growth of Online Social Networks have facilitated the creation and sharing of synthetic images like never before. This has led to an overwhelming increase in the dissemination of fake content on OSNs. Maintaining the integrity of OSNs is paramount, and detecting synthetic images plays a crucial role in preserving social balance. Existing solutions, while achieving perfect detection performance on test datasets, often experience significant degradation when applied to OSN images. In our work, we propose a robust fake image detector that relies on features minimally affected by common OSN perturbations. Specifically, our solution leverages gradient features in color channels, including chrominance and luminance channels, accompanied by a residual-based CNN. Our low-parameterized solution is characterized by low complexity, making it particularly resource-efficient and suitable for edge devices.</div><div>Thorough experiments demonstrate that our method achieves 100% accuracy in identifying fake images on our test dataset. We further evaluate the approach on images generated by contemporary generative adversarial networks and diffusion models, where it consistently exhibits strong detection performance. In addition, when applied to images that undergo post-processing operations designed to mimic OSN circulation, the proposed detector maintains high accuracy and robustness. Overall, results indicate that our proposed gradient-based color-channel features, coupled with a low-complexity residual network, provide an effective and OSN-resilient solution for synthetic image detection across both generic and post-processed/compressed scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112817"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the uncertainty associated with using a signal detection theory model to analyze data from forensic black-box studies 关于使用信号检测理论模型分析法医黑箱研究数据的不确定性
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112816
Bruce Budowle , Max D. Morris , Todd J. Weller
A parametric signal detection theory model has been used in recent literature to model data collected from black-box studies of forensic examiner accuracy, and to predict how error rates might change if examiners were to be either more or less demanding in their requirements for making IDENTIFICATION or EXCLUSION calls. Such models depend on latent (i.e., unobservable) scores, summaries of which are only partially estimable from the data collected on categorical conclusion scales. As a result, inferences based on signal detection theory models are sensitive to the probability model used, and imprecise due to the limited information available about the latent scores. This paper explains some of these uncertainties, with the aim of demonstrating that they can be substantial in typical forensics applications.
在最近的文献中,一个参数信号检测理论模型被用于对法医审查员准确性的黑箱研究中收集的数据进行建模,并预测如果审查员在进行识别或排除呼叫时要求更高或更低,错误率将如何变化。这些模型依赖于潜在(即不可观察的)分数,其摘要只能从分类结论量表收集的数据中部分估计。因此,基于信号检测理论模型的推断对所使用的概率模型很敏感,并且由于潜在分数的可用信息有限而不精确。本文解释了其中的一些不确定性,目的是证明它们在典型的取证应用中可能是实质性的。
{"title":"On the uncertainty associated with using a signal detection theory model to analyze data from forensic black-box studies","authors":"Bruce Budowle ,&nbsp;Max D. Morris ,&nbsp;Todd J. Weller","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A parametric signal detection theory model has been used in recent literature to model data collected from black-box studies of forensic examiner accuracy, and to predict how error rates might change if examiners were to be either more or less demanding in their requirements for making IDENTIFICATION or EXCLUSION calls. Such models depend on latent (i.e., unobservable) scores, summaries of which are only partially estimable from the data collected on categorical conclusion scales. As a result, inferences based on signal detection theory models are sensitive to the probability model used, and imprecise due to the limited information available about the latent scores. This paper explains some of these uncertainties, with the aim of demonstrating that they can be substantial in typical forensics applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112816"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Falls from height in forensic medicine: Differentiating accident, suicide, and homicide through case analysis and biomechanical modeling 法医学中的高空坠落:通过案例分析和生物力学模型区分意外、自杀和他杀
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112815
Pelin Erol , Yaşar Mustafa Karagöz

Background

Falls from height represent one of the leading causes of unintentional injury and death worldwide. Distinguishing between accidental, suicidal, and homicidal falls remains a major forensic challenge. Autopsy findings alone may not reveal the true origin, particularly in cases with inconsistent witness statements or complex injury mechanisms. Integrating biomechanical simulations with classical forensic methods offers an opportunity to strengthen interpretative accuracy.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 258 fall-from-height cases referred to the Department of Forensic Medicine, Akdeniz University, between 2007 and 2016. Demographic variables, fall height, injury patterns, and manner of fall were evaluated. Additionally, a representative case (25-year-old female, 7th-floor fall) was reconstructed using MADYMO and LS-DYNA in three scenarios: accidental backward fall, suicidal forward jump, and homicidal push. Detailed initial and boundary conditions—including friction coefficient (μ=0.60), restitution coefficient (e=0.15), and scenario-specific initial velocities—were defined. Simulation outputs (impact velocity, rotational components, HIC15, VC, AIS-based injury probabilities) were compared with autopsy findings.

Results

Of the 258 cases, 94.9 % were accidents, 4.7 % suicides, and 0.4 % suspected homicides. The mean fall height was 7.03 m, with head–neck trauma being the most common injury (49.2 %). In the representative case, the accidental scenario demonstrated the highest concordance (89 %) with autopsy findings, while suicide and homicide simulations produced inconsistent injury profiles. Biomechanical modeling showed increasing head accelerations and injury probabilities across accident (82 g; 54 %), suicide (94 g; 71 %), and homicide (110 g; 89 %) scenarios. Rotational motion around the railing pivot increased intermediate contact velocity, substantially affecting impact severity.

Conclusions

Accurate determination of fall origin requires a multidisciplinary approach integrating autopsy findings, scene investigation, and biomechanical simulations. Objective simulation-based metrics (HIC, VC, g-forces) complement classical forensic evaluation and improve the interpretative reliability of disputed or ambiguous cases.
背景高空坠落是全世界造成意外伤害和死亡的主要原因之一。区分意外坠落、自杀坠落和杀人坠落仍然是法医的一大挑战。单独的尸检结果可能无法揭示真正的起源,特别是在证人陈述不一致或损伤机制复杂的情况下。整合生物力学模拟与经典法医方法提供了一个机会,以加强解释的准确性。方法回顾性分析2007 - 2016年阿克德尼兹大学法医学院系收治的258例高空坠落病例。评估了人口统计学变量、坠落高度、损伤模式和坠落方式。另外,利用MADYMO和LS-DYNA对一例25岁女性7楼坠楼的典型案例进行了三种情景的重构:意外向后坠楼、自杀式向前跳和杀人推楼。定义了详细的初始和边界条件,包括摩擦系数(μ=0.60)、恢复系数(e=0.15)和特定场景的初始速度。仿真输出(冲击速度、旋转分量、HIC15、VC、基于ais的损伤概率)与尸检结果进行了比较。结果258例中,94.9% %为意外事故,4.7% %为自杀,0.4% %为他杀。平均坠落高度为7.03 m,以头颈部损伤最为常见(49.2% %)。在代表性案例中,意外情景与尸检结果的一致性最高(89% %),而自杀和他杀模拟产生了不一致的伤害特征。生物力学模型显示,在事故(82 g; 54 %)、自杀(94 g; 71 %)和杀人(110 g; 89 %)情况下,头部加速度和受伤概率都在增加。围绕栏杆枢轴的旋转运动增加了中间接触速度,大大影响了冲击的严重性。结论:准确确定跌倒原因需要多学科方法,包括尸检结果、现场调查和生物力学模拟。基于客观模拟的指标(HIC, VC, g-forces)补充了经典的法医评估,提高了有争议或模棱两可案件的解释可靠性。
{"title":"Falls from height in forensic medicine: Differentiating accident, suicide, and homicide through case analysis and biomechanical modeling","authors":"Pelin Erol ,&nbsp;Yaşar Mustafa Karagöz","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112815","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Falls from height represent one of the leading causes of unintentional injury and death worldwide. Distinguishing between accidental, suicidal, and homicidal falls remains a major forensic challenge. Autopsy findings alone may not reveal the true origin, particularly in cases with inconsistent witness statements or complex injury mechanisms. Integrating biomechanical simulations with classical forensic methods offers an opportunity to strengthen interpretative accuracy.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We retrospectively analyzed 258 fall-from-height cases referred to the Department of Forensic Medicine, Akdeniz University, between 2007 and 2016. Demographic variables, fall height, injury patterns, and manner of fall were evaluated. Additionally, a representative case (25-year-old female, 7th-floor fall) was reconstructed using MADYMO and LS-DYNA in three scenarios: accidental backward fall, suicidal forward jump, and homicidal push. Detailed initial and boundary conditions—including friction coefficient (μ=0.60), restitution coefficient (e=0.15), and scenario-specific initial velocities—were defined. Simulation outputs (impact velocity, rotational components, HIC15, VC, AIS-based injury probabilities) were compared with autopsy findings.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Of the 258 cases, 94.9 % were accidents, 4.7 % suicides, and 0.4 % suspected homicides. The mean fall height was 7.03 m, with head–neck trauma being the most common injury (49.2 %). In the representative case, the accidental scenario demonstrated the highest concordance (89 %) with autopsy findings, while suicide and homicide simulations produced inconsistent injury profiles. Biomechanical modeling showed increasing head accelerations and injury probabilities across accident (82 g; 54 %), suicide (94 g; 71 %), and homicide (110 g; 89 %) scenarios. Rotational motion around the railing pivot increased intermediate contact velocity, substantially affecting impact severity.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Accurate determination of fall origin requires a multidisciplinary approach integrating autopsy findings, scene investigation, and biomechanical simulations. Objective simulation-based metrics (HIC, VC, g-forces) complement classical forensic evaluation and improve the interpretative reliability of disputed or ambiguous cases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112815"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Age estimation using third molars in forced migrant populations: Determining age and probability 强迫移民人口第三磨牙的年龄估计:确定年龄和概率
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112814
Andrea Faragalli , Flavia Carle , Luca Aquilanti , Giorgio Rappelli , Erminia Coccia , Nikolaos Angelakopoulos , Roberto Cameriere , Valeria Santoro , Luigi Ferrante , Edlira Skrami

Background

Accurate age estimation is a critical component of forensic assessment in undocumented forced migrants, as it directly influences legal protection, social support, and immigration procedures.

Objectives

To develop and validate a statistical model for estimating chronological age and its probability distribution based on third molar maturity index values in forced migrants.

Material and Methods

In this observational study, we employed a Bayesian Calibration approach utilizing a Normal density and an expected value modeled by a Segmented function. The model underwent calibration using a training sample consisting of 481 orthopantomographs of healthy males, gathered during routine visits spanning from 2012 to 2017. A testing sample comprising 45 forced migrant males recruited from four Italian hosting centers in 2018 was utilized to validate the model.

Results

The two samples exhibited similar distributions in terms of age and dental maturity index. The model's breakpoint age was estimated at 18.6 years, suggesting a sharp decline in dental maturity rate beyond this threshold. For instance, the probability of a forced migrant being 18 years or older with a dental maturity index of 0.15 was 0.75. The mean error in age estimation was 1.57 years, with a variability of 2 years, and demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.3 years.

Discussion

The model offers, in addition to estimated age, the likelihood that an individual is of a specific age or older, taking into account their dental maturity. This provides valuable supplementary information to authorities during the age assessment procedure. A web application has been launched to facilitate the retrieval of age estimates and associated probabilities when inputting the dental maturity index value.
准确的年龄估计是无证强迫移民法医评估的关键组成部分,因为它直接影响到法律保护、社会支持和移民程序。目的建立并验证基于强迫移民第三摩尔成熟度指数的实足年龄及其概率分布的统计模型。材料和方法在这项观察性研究中,我们采用贝叶斯校准方法,利用正态密度和由分割函数建模的期望值。该模型使用由481名健康男性的骨正像片组成的训练样本进行了校准,这些样本是在2012年至2017年的常规访问期间收集的。测试样本包括2018年从四个意大利收容中心招募的45名被迫移民男性,用于验证该模型。结果两种标本在年龄和牙成熟指数上分布相似。该模型的断点年龄估计为18.6岁,表明牙齿成熟率在这个阈值之后急剧下降。例如,18岁或以上牙齿成熟指数为0.15的被迫移民的概率为0.75。年龄估计的平均误差为1.57岁,变异率为2岁,呈统计学上显著的增加趋势(0.3岁)。除了估计年龄,该模型还提供了考虑到牙齿成熟程度的个体处于特定年龄或更大年龄的可能性。这为当局在年龄评估过程中提供了有价值的补充信息。我们推出了一个网页应用程序,方便市民在输入牙齿成熟度指数值时,检索年龄估计及相关的概率。
{"title":"Age estimation using third molars in forced migrant populations: Determining age and probability","authors":"Andrea Faragalli ,&nbsp;Flavia Carle ,&nbsp;Luca Aquilanti ,&nbsp;Giorgio Rappelli ,&nbsp;Erminia Coccia ,&nbsp;Nikolaos Angelakopoulos ,&nbsp;Roberto Cameriere ,&nbsp;Valeria Santoro ,&nbsp;Luigi Ferrante ,&nbsp;Edlira Skrami","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.112814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Accurate age estimation is a critical component of forensic assessment in undocumented forced migrants, as it directly influences legal protection, social support, and immigration procedures.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>To develop and validate a statistical model for estimating chronological age and its probability distribution based on third molar maturity index values in forced migrants.</div></div><div><h3>Material and Methods</h3><div>In this observational study, we employed a Bayesian Calibration approach utilizing a Normal density and an expected value modeled by a Segmented function. The model underwent calibration using a training sample consisting of 481 orthopantomographs of healthy males, gathered during routine visits spanning from 2012 to 2017. A testing sample comprising 45 forced migrant males recruited from four Italian hosting centers in 2018 was utilized to validate the model.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The two samples exhibited similar distributions in terms of age and dental maturity index. The model's breakpoint age was estimated at 18.6 years, suggesting a sharp decline in dental maturity rate beyond this threshold. For instance, the probability of a forced migrant being 18 years or older with a dental maturity index of 0.15 was 0.75. The mean error in age estimation was 1.57 years, with a variability of 2 years, and demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.3 years.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>The model offers, in addition to estimated age, the likelihood that an individual is of a specific age or older, taking into account their dental maturity. This provides valuable <span><span>supplementary information</span></span> to authorities during the age assessment procedure. A web application has been launched to facilitate the retrieval of age estimates and associated probabilities when inputting the dental maturity index value.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112814"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The long-term capability of soil pore air sampling to detect graves 土壤孔隙空气取样长期探测坟墓的能力
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2025.112806
M. Dalva , T.R. Moore , M. Kalacska , G. Leblanc
We examined the concentrations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the pore air of a well-drained soil at which pig carcasses were buried over 12–13 years at depths between 50 and 100 cm. Sites included disturbed pits without carcasses, an undisturbed site, a mass grave (20 pigs) and single carcass graves buried at two depths with and without burial in a plastic bag. Twelve years after burial, the concentrations of CH4 were mostly below atmospheric values (∼ 2.0 ppm), showing that this gas was of little value in detecting graves under these conditions. Concentrations of CO2 were above values found under undisturbed conditions. Much of the increase is related to the decomposition of the carcasses, though disturbance during pit refilling and root respiration may account for part of the increase. The best indicator of burial over 13 years was increases in the concentration of N2O associated with inclusion of carcasses and with evidence of lateral flow of N2O in the soil. The N2O concentration is well above that of undisturbed or disturbed soils providing a detectible effect in sites with carcasses.
我们检测了排水良好的土壤孔隙空气中甲烷(CH4)、二氧化碳(CO2)和氧化亚氮(N2O)的浓度,这些土壤将猪尸体埋在50至100 厘米的深度,埋了12-13年。地点包括没有尸体的被破坏的坑,一个未被破坏的地点,一个万人坑(20头猪)和一个单独的尸体坟墓,埋在两个深度,有和没有被埋在塑料袋里。掩埋12年后,CH4的浓度大多低于大气值(~ 2.0 ppm),表明在这种条件下,这种气体在探测坟墓方面几乎没有价值。二氧化碳浓度高于未受干扰条件下的值。增加的大部分与尸体的分解有关,尽管在坑填充和根呼吸过程中的干扰可能是增加的部分原因。掩埋超过13年的最佳指标是N2O浓度的增加,这与尸体的包裹有关,并且有证据表明N2O在土壤中横向流动。N2O浓度远高于未受干扰或受干扰的土壤,在有尸体的地点提供了可检测的影响。
{"title":"The long-term capability of soil pore air sampling to detect graves","authors":"M. Dalva ,&nbsp;T.R. Moore ,&nbsp;M. Kalacska ,&nbsp;G. Leblanc","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2025.112806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2025.112806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examined the concentrations of methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) in the pore air of a well-drained soil at which pig carcasses were buried over 12–13 years at depths between 50 and 100 cm. Sites included disturbed pits without carcasses, an undisturbed site, a mass grave (20 pigs) and single carcass graves buried at two depths with and without burial in a plastic bag. Twelve years after burial, the concentrations of CH<sub>4</sub> were mostly below atmospheric values (∼ 2.0 ppm), showing that this gas was of little value in detecting graves under these conditions. Concentrations of CO<sub>2</sub> were above values found under undisturbed conditions. Much of the increase is related to the decomposition of the carcasses, though disturbance during pit refilling and root respiration may account for part of the increase. The best indicator of burial over 13 years was increases in the concentration of N<sub>2</sub>O associated with inclusion of carcasses and with evidence of lateral flow of N<sub>2</sub>O in the soil. The N<sub>2</sub>O concentration is well above that of undisturbed or disturbed soils providing a detectible effect in sites with carcasses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 112806"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145973165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-01
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"379 ","pages":"Article 112771"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146448359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-01
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"379 ","pages":"Article 112811"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146448364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
IF 2.5 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2026-01-01
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":12341,"journal":{"name":"Forensic science international","volume":"379 ","pages":"Article 112743"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146448368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Forensic science international
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1