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Development of Forecasting Model with Simple Smoothing and Inventory Model with DDMRP in Veterinary Medicine Industry 兽药行业简单平滑预测模型及DDMRP库存模型的建立
Hana Marita Iki, D. Ishak
It is hard to determine the trend and the season for Veterinary Medicine, so the usual type of Forecasting Method that the industry used still has low accuracy. Because of the low forecasting accuracy, the inventory number will be high, and then there is a high chance of a longer lead time. To improve forecasting accuracy, the author aimed to find the suitable model for increasing the forecasting accuracy used in Veterinary Industry and the suitable inventory model to decrease the inventory number. The study uses Simple Exponential Smoothing as a forecasting model and DDMRP (Demand Driven Material Requirement Planning) as the Inventory model. The author uses Simple Exponential Smoothing because the trend and seasons in Veterinary Medicine are still unknown. The author uses DDMRP as the Inventory Model because the safety stock can be adjusted according to the market's medicine demand.
由于兽医学的趋势和季节难以确定,因此业内常用的预测方法仍然具有较低的准确性。由于预测精度低,库存数量会很高,然后很可能会有更长的交货期。为了提高预测精度,笔者旨在寻找适合兽医行业的预测模型来提高预测精度和适合的库存模型来减少库存数量。本研究采用简单指数平滑模型作为预测模型,DDMRP(需求驱动物料需求计划)作为库存模型。由于兽医学的趋势和季节仍然未知,作者使用简单指数平滑。由于安全库存可以根据市场对药品的需求进行调整,笔者采用DDMRP作为库存模型。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual Designs of Instant Noodle Packaging Waste Collection System Based on Public Participation 基于公众参与的方便面包装废弃物收集系统概念设计
Rofiqoh Nur Rohmah, D. Gabriel, F. Farizal
Indonesia is the second-largest instant noodle consumer country globally and annually produces 17 billion packaged instant noodle products. This results in a large amount of instant noodle packaging plastic waste produced. However, until now, there has been no design for collecting instant noodle packaging waste properly. Based on actual events, instant noodle packaging waste is classified as trash that is not in demand by the informal sector because it has low economic value and is difficult to recycle, so instant noodle packaging waste is often scattered in the environment, ends up in the landfill and increases the volume. The current packaging waste collection design is not sufficient to handle instant noodle waste properly. One solution to overcome the negative impact of environmental problems due to instant noodle packaging is to design a focused waste collection design. This study's results are three designs of instant noodle packaging waste collection, which are expected to be an alternative in reducing pollution and environmental problems due to instant noodle packaging. Literature studies on waste collection, including the factors and sub-factors of waste management, interviews with waste managers, and observations of existing waste collection trends, were carried out to design instant noodle packaging collections.
印度尼西亚是全球第二大方便面消费国,每年生产170亿件包装方便面。这就造成了大量方便面包装塑料废弃物的产生。然而,到目前为止,还没有适当收集方便面包装废弃物的设计。根据实际事件,方便面包装废弃物由于经济价值低,难以回收利用,被非正式部门归类为不需要的垃圾,因此方便面包装废弃物往往散落在环境中,最终被填埋,体积增加。目前的包装废弃物收集设计不足以妥善处理方便面废弃物。为了克服方便面包装对环境问题的负面影响,一个解决方案是设计一个集中的废物收集设计。本研究的结果是三种方便面包装废弃物收集的设计,有望成为减少方便面包装带来的污染和环境问题的一种替代方案。通过对垃圾收集的文献研究,包括垃圾管理的因素和子因素,对垃圾管理者的访谈,以及对现有垃圾收集趋势的观察,来设计方便面包装收集。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring Variables Structure based on Structural Equation Modeling of Future Strategy for Digital Car Insurance Product based on Millennial Generation's Perception of Purchase Decision 基于千禧一代购买决策感知的数字化车险产品未来战略的结构方程模型变量结构探索
Natasya, S. Syafira, A. Hidayatno, A. Moeis
Service offerings for the new kind of market consist of digitally fluent millennial generations significantly different in the insurance industry. The moved to digital service offering are essential to maintain a competitive advantage. Car insurance is one service offered by the general insurance industry growing and following the trend towards digital. This research emphasizes the influence of the relationship between knowledge & consumer behavior and product innovation on the perception of purchasing decisions for the digital car insurance product. This paper develops a conceptual model using a system diagram to show inputs, processes, outputs, related stakeholders, and intervention choices that can influence strategy early-development. The conceptual model is the base for planned further research using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to measure its relationship.
为新型市场提供的服务包括数字流畅的千禧一代,这与保险业有很大不同。向数字化服务提供的转变对于保持竞争优势至关重要。汽车保险是一般保险行业提供的一项服务,随着数字化的趋势不断发展。本研究强调知识与消费者行为、产品创新之间的关系对数字车险产品购买决策感知的影响。本文开发了一个概念模型,使用系统图来显示可以影响战略早期发展的投入、过程、产出、相关利益相关者和干预选择。该概念模型是利用结构方程建模(SEM)方法测量其关系的有计划的进一步研究的基础。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual Design Assessment Method for Collaborative CAD System 协同CAD系统概念设计评价方法
Fariz Muharram Hasby, D. Irianto
Computer Aided Design (CAD) technology has been developed for years and is used extensively in the detail design phase. Unfortunately, CAD is still unable to fully support the collaborative design activity or the early design phases of the design process, such as the conceptual design phase. Due to the high creativity needed in the conceptual design phase, there will usually be a number of different ideas and there is a need to converge the different designs into one design that can be further elaborated into the detail design phase. On the other hand, finding an optimal design is difficult in this phase as the designs usually do not have sufficient detail to be assessed quantitatively. The problem is even more pronounced in collaborative conceptual design, as the number of designs will increase and arriving at an agreement for the best design without a proper assessment method is hard to do. This paper will introduce a conceptual design assessment method that can be used in a collaborative design situation. The method uses a combination of Hurwicz criterion and an estimated range of the product function fulfillment to determine the best design. A case study will also be used to illustrate the use of the method. The method shows a potential to be used in a CAD system designed to support the collaborative conceptual design phase.
计算机辅助设计(CAD)技术已经发展了多年,在详细设计阶段得到了广泛的应用。不幸的是,CAD仍然不能完全支持协同设计活动或设计过程的早期设计阶段,例如概念设计阶段。由于概念设计阶段需要很高的创造力,通常会有许多不同的想法,需要将不同的设计融合成一个设计,可以进一步细化到细节设计阶段。另一方面,在这个阶段找到一个最优设计是困难的,因为设计通常没有足够的细节来定量评估。这个问题在协作概念设计中更加明显,因为设计的数量会增加,如果没有适当的评估方法,就很难达成最佳设计的协议。本文将介绍一种可用于协同设计情境的概念设计评估方法。该方法结合赫维茨准则和产品功能实现的估计范围来确定最佳设计。还将使用一个案例研究来说明该方法的使用。该方法显示了用于支持协同概念设计阶段的CAD系统的潜力。
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引用次数: 1
Developing Business Model for Food-Small Medium Enterprise Using Business Model Canvas (Case Study: Bolu Kemojo Insan Sukses) 利用商业模式画布开发食品中小企业的商业模式(案例研究:Bolu Kemojo Insan Sukses)
N. T. Putri, Muhammad Akbar Sahala Lubis, Ikhwan Arief
The food and beverage industry is one of the processing industry sectors that is experiencing growth by contributing 5.49% to Riau's 2019 Regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This shows that the food and beverage industry has developed quite rapidly due to the quite promising business opportunities. The high potential in the food and beverage industry results in fierce business competition. Therefore, every food and beverage industry needs to transform its business model by developing various competitive advantage strategy innovations to win the market and adapt to environmental developments. Insan Sukses is one of the businesses that produces and sells kemojo cake. As a business that is engaged in the traditional culinary sector, it has opportunities of an increasing market spectrum due to an increase in population and tourism programs launched by the government. Hence, this research was conducted to develop a new business model for Insan Sukses by using the Business Model Canvas (BMC). The research method used is the qualitative descriptive analysis which is carried out in three stages. The first stage is to describe the current Insan Sukses business model by using BMC. The second stage is to evaluate the current business model by conducting an environmental analysis through a SWOT questionnaire and designing an appropriate business development strategy. The strategy design consists of the input stage (IFE matrix and EFE matrix), the matching stage (SWOT matrix and IE matrix), and the decision stage (QSPM). The IE matrix results show the position of Insan Sukses in cell II which is growth and build. The alternative strategies obtained are based on the results of the IE matrix and the SWOT matrix which is the intensive strategy, integration, and diversification. Based on the QSPM results, an intensive strategy was added to the new Insan Sukses business model with the highest total attractiveness score of 7.08. The final stage of this research is the depiction of a new business model into the proposed Business Model Canvas by adding several aspects to the elements of value propositions, channels, customer relationships, revenue streams, key resources, key activities, key partnerships, and cost structures.
食品和饮料行业是正在经历增长的加工业部门之一,为廖内省2019年的区域国内生产总值(GDP)贡献了5.49%。由此可见,食品和饮料行业的发展相当迅速,商机相当可观。餐饮行业的巨大潜力导致了激烈的商业竞争。因此,每一个食品和饮料行业都需要转变其商业模式,通过开发各种竞争优势战略创新来赢得市场和适应环境的发展。Insan Sukses是生产和销售香饼的企业之一。作为一家从事传统烹饪领域的企业,由于人口的增加和政府推出的旅游计划,它有机会扩大市场范围。因此,本研究旨在利用商业模式画布(business model Canvas, BMC)为Insan Sukses开发一种新的商业模式。本研究采用定性描述性分析方法,分三个阶段进行。第一个阶段是用BMC来描述当前的Insan Sukses的商业模式。第二阶段是评估当前的商业模式,通过SWOT问卷进行环境分析,并设计适当的业务发展战略。策略设计包括输入阶段(IFE矩阵和EFE矩阵)、匹配阶段(SWOT矩阵和IE矩阵)和决策阶段(QSPM)。IE矩阵结果显示Insan Sukses在生长和构建的II细胞中的位置。得到的备选战略是基于IE矩阵和SWOT矩阵的结果,即集约化战略、一体化战略和多元化战略。在QSPM结果的基础上,在新的Insan Sukses商业模式中增加了一个集约战略,其总吸引力得分最高,为7.08。本研究的最后阶段是通过向价值主张、渠道、客户关系、收入流、关键资源、关键活动、关键合作伙伴关系和成本结构等要素添加几个方面,将一个新的商业模式描绘到拟议的商业模式画布中。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding of Variables that Creates Cash Flow Dynamics for the Sustainable Financing of Construction Project 为建设项目可持续融资创造现金流动态的变量的理解
Gusman Simon, A. Hidayatno, Andri D. Setiawan
Cash flow is one of the crucial things for the success of a construction project. Several components of cash flow, including advance payment, retention, payment term, capital, work progress, have an impact on project finances so that they shall be planned and controlled by the contractor. Therefore, it is essential to understand the interconnectivity dynamics between these cash-flow components within the project's context. This paper develops a conceptual model using a causal loop diagram to highlight project cash flow challenges in construction. By using an industrial building construction project as a case study, all the components may illustrate how they interact with each other and gain insights to develop a quantitative model.
现金流是建设项目成功与否的关键因素之一。现金流的几个组成部分,包括预付款、保留款、付款期限、资金、工程进度,对项目财务有影响,因此应由承包商进行计划和控制。因此,有必要了解项目背景下这些现金流组成部分之间的相互联系动态。本文开发了一个概念模型,使用因果循环图来突出项目现金流在建设中的挑战。通过使用工业建筑建设项目作为案例研究,所有组件都可以说明它们如何相互作用,并获得开发定量模型的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Relief Supply Control Model for Prolonged Natural Disasters with Uncertain Demand 需求不确定的长时间自然灾害救援供给控制模型
Iva Rosa Nasution, K. Komarudin
The fulfillment of relief goods for disaster victims during the emergency response is one of the most important issues to be solved in the humanitarian logistics world. However, some disaster events facing emergency response time in years, such as prolonged volcano eruption. It makes the victims will stay at the evacuation post in an indeterminate time with the uncertain relief goods demand. This condition makes the related government has to prepare the logistics in years. This paper will describe and formulate such a problem in the stochastic inventory control model for a multiple-item single-location inventory system and will be optimized using Sample Average Approximation and Monte Carlo simulation as the method. We will demonstrate using the case of simultaneous eruption disaster in Mt. Sinabung. The numerical result shows that the proposed model can produce a cost reduction and the inventory service level will reach more than 99%, wherein the reality, the service level is always less than 95%.
应急救灾过程中救灾物资的配送是人道主义物流领域亟待解决的重要问题之一。然而,有些灾害事件面临的应急响应时间长达数年,如持续的火山喷发。这使得灾民在不确定的时间和不确定的救援物资需求下停留在撤离点。这种情况使得相关政府不得不在数年内做好后勤准备。本文将描述和制定多项目单地点库存系统随机库存控制模型中的这一问题,并将使用样本平均逼近和蒙特卡罗模拟作为方法进行优化。我们将以锡纳朋火山同时爆发的灾难为例进行演示。数值结果表明,所提出的模型能够降低成本,使库存服务水平达到99%以上,而现实中,库存服务水平始终小于95%。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Defense Industry Innovation System with the Approach Policy Analysis 国防工业创新体系的发展与对策分析
Ekanesti Ruswidia Sari, A. Moeis
This study applies the system dynamics (SD) methodology to find the factors that influence defense industry innovation, which is very important to determine the domestic industry's competitive advantage. The work is limited to verbal descriptions of thought processes and is discussed in context as the first step towards mathematical modeling for computer simulations. This study uses four critical interactive dimensional innovations: product innovation, process innovation, marketing innovation, and organizational innovation. The management of strategic and defense industries in several countries is almost always faced with three main issues, namely: first, the development of defense technology which relies on two schemes, strengthening research and development / R&D of the defense industry, and through offset schemes and technology transfer. Second, the defense industry budget with various funding models, and the third problem is to improve the quality of resources Human (HR) from the defense industry. The three of them are related to each other in supporting needs Main Equipment Weapon System (Alutsista) in a country. Successful management of an innovation system can drive both companies and the national economy. The discussion is not limited to the defense industry's innovations but can be applied to other commercial companies of similar size, growth, and operating characteristics.
本文运用系统动力学(SD)方法研究国防工业创新的影响因素,这对确定国内国防工业的竞争优势具有重要意义。这项工作仅限于对思维过程的口头描述,并作为计算机模拟数学建模的第一步在上下文中进行讨论。本研究使用四个关键的互动维度创新:产品创新、流程创新、行销创新和组织创新。在一些国家,战略和国防工业的管理几乎总是面临三个主要问题,即:第一,国防技术的发展依赖于两种方案,加强国防工业的研究和开发,并通过抵消方案和技术转让。二是国防工业预算中存在各种资助模式,三是提高国防工业人力资源质量的问题。这三者在一个国家的主要装备武器系统(Alutsista)的保障需求上是相互关联的。一个创新系统的成功管理可以带动企业和国民经济。本文的讨论不仅局限于国防工业的创新,也适用于其他具有类似规模、成长性和经营特点的商业公司。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling User Email Preferences Using Biterm Topic Model 使用Biterm主题模型建模用户电子邮件偏好
Harvey P. Gunawijaya, I. Surjandari
Email marketing is widely used by companies to communicate and maintain relationships with their existing customers. From a business perspective, email marketing is often personalized based on the customers’ historical transactions, which reflect their interest and could lead to repeat transactions. Unfortunately, not all industries have the luxury of using transactional data due to its limited and minimal amount of data. An example would be the hotel industry, which falls behind in each customer's transaction numbers compared to other sectors like retail and e-commerce. The challenge is how to use non-transactional data to find out the customers’ interests. This study proposes to model user email preferences based on the email marketing topics. The assumption is every user has one or more topics of emails as their interest and sending emails with the matching topics may result in more interaction. Biterm topic model for short texts is used to group emails with similar topics using its subject. This study validates the assumption by separating some of the latest campaigns to be observed with its historical email interaction. The result shows that around 69% of email openers within the last six months matched with their historical topic preferences. This finding proves that individuals have an interest and more likely to interact in some particular topic. Not only can these topics be used to give more relevance to the users, but they can also possibly help marketers achieve better marketing performance. CCS CONCEPTS • Information systems∼Information retrieval∼Document representation∼Document topic models
电子邮件营销被公司广泛用于与现有客户沟通和保持关系。从商业角度来看,电子邮件营销通常是基于客户的历史交易进行个性化的,这反映了他们的兴趣,并可能导致重复交易。不幸的是,并不是所有的行业都可以使用事务性数据,因为它的数据量有限且最少。一个例子是酒店业,与零售和电子商务等其他行业相比,酒店业在每个客户的交易数量上落后于酒店业。挑战在于如何使用非事务性数据来发现客户的兴趣。本研究提出基于电子邮件营销主题的用户电子邮件偏好模型。假设每个用户都有一个或多个电子邮件主题作为他们的兴趣,并且发送带有匹配主题的电子邮件可能会导致更多的交互。短文本的双词主题模型用于使用其主题对具有相似主题的电子邮件进行分组。这项研究通过将一些最新的活动与其历史电子邮件交互分离开来,验证了这一假设。结果显示,在过去六个月内,大约69%的电子邮件打开者与他们的历史主题偏好相匹配。这一发现证明,个人对某些特定话题有兴趣,更有可能进行互动。这些主题不仅可以给用户更多的相关性,而且还可以帮助营销人员实现更好的营销效果。CCS概念•信息系统~信息检索~文档表示~文档主题模型
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引用次数: 0
Identification of E-Maintenance Dominant Factor that Affect Maintenance Performance of High Rise Buildings 影响高层建筑维修性能的电子维修主导因素识别
Marsella Khairunnisa, Y. Latief, L. Sagita
In order to improve maintenance performance, several buildings have been implemented e-maintenance system. E-maintenance system itself is a combination of two elements of building maintenance, there are (a) management maintenance consisting of policy, guidelines, and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), and (b) technology maintenance consisting of information system and Building Information Modeling (BIM). However, during its operational period, currently the implementation of e-maintenance system for high-rise building is considered not to be carried out effectively. In order to adress this concern, it is necessary to find out the factors of e-maintenance system of high rise building that affect the results of maintenance. This study proposes identification of e-maintenance system factors that affect maintenance performance of high-rise building and find out the dominant factor. This study combines the optimization factors of each of the e-maintenance components. The analytical method used is descriptive analysis which produces 26 factors which then tabulated and categorized to determine the dominant factors. The research resulted in five factor categories of e-maintenance system for high rise buildings that affect its maintenance performance, those are risk factor, operational factor, resources factor, corporate culture factor, and technology factor. The result of this study is suggested that the dominant factors of e-maintenance system for high rise buildings that affect the performance of its maintenance is risk factor.
为了提高维修性能,几幢大楼都实施了电子维修系统。电子维修系统本身是建筑维修两大要素的结合,即(a)由政策、指南和工作分解结构(WBS)组成的管理维护,(b)由信息系统和建筑信息模型(BIM)组成的技术维护。然而,在其运行期间,目前高层建筑电子维修系统的实施被认为没有得到有效的实施。为了解决这一问题,有必要找出高层建筑电子维修系统中影响维修效果的因素。本文对影响高层建筑维修性能的电子维修系统因素进行了识别,找出了主导因素。本研究结合了各电子维修组件的优化因素。使用的分析方法是描述性分析,产生26个因素,然后制表和分类,以确定主导因素。研究得出影响高层建筑电子维护系统维护性能的五大因素,分别是风险因素、操作因素、资源因素、企业文化因素和技术因素。研究结果表明,高层建筑电子维修系统中影响其维修效能的主导因素是风险因素。
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引用次数: 0
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Proceedings of the 4th Asia Pacific Conference on Research in Industrial and Systems Engineering
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