Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.07
D. O. G.F. Mukhammadiyeva, E. R. Karimov, A. B. Shaikhlislamova, Bakirov E.R, Ya.V Kudoyarov, R. A. Valova, E. F. Daukaev, Repina
Uncontrolled distribution of goods produced by genetically modified plants should be prevented by the state in order to secure food safety in the Russian Federation and to minimize health risks for consumers. We analyzed foods of plant origin for children to identify components of genetically modified organisms in them. It was done to ensure safety of such foods. The highest specific weight among the analyzed foods belonged to nectars (40.0 %) and juice-containing drinks (36.0 %). Juices and fruit drinks accounted for 12 % each. Genetically modified organisms were determined in foods by identifying regulatory sequences (35S promoter, FMV promoter and NOS terminator) that are widely used in constructions of genetically modified plants. Occurrence of regulatory genetic elements specific for genetically modified organisms was checked in juice products for children by the polymerase chain reaction in real-time mode with hybridization-fluorescent detection of amplification products and with the use of the “AmpliSens GM Plant-1-FL” and “AmpliKvant GM soya-FL” test systems. The results of this study showed that no analyzed foods of plant origin contained any regulatory sequences (35S, NOS и FMV) indicating presence of genetically modified organisms. Fluorescence through the FAM, Cy5 and ROX channels did not exceed its threshold value. Therefore, we did not detect any violations of the established requirements to occurrence of genetically modified organisms in foods for children. Further investigation that would involve examining a more extensive material is required to ensure proper assessment and control of food contamination with genetically modified organisms in order to ensure food safety.
{"title":"Identification of genetically modified organisms in foods of plant origin as a way to control health risks for consumers","authors":"D. O. G.F. Mukhammadiyeva, E. R. Karimov, A. B. Shaikhlislamova, Bakirov E.R, Ya.V Kudoyarov, R. A. Valova, E. F. Daukaev, Repina","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.07","url":null,"abstract":"Uncontrolled distribution of goods produced by genetically modified plants should be prevented by the state in order to secure food safety in the Russian Federation and to minimize health risks for consumers. We analyzed foods of plant origin for children to identify components of genetically modified organisms in them. It was done to ensure safety of such foods. The highest specific weight among the analyzed foods belonged to nectars (40.0 %) and juice-containing drinks (36.0 %). Juices and fruit drinks accounted for 12 % each. Genetically modified organisms were determined in foods by identifying regulatory sequences (35S promoter, FMV promoter and NOS terminator) that are widely used in constructions of genetically modified plants. Occurrence of regulatory genetic elements specific for genetically modified organisms was checked in juice products for children by the polymerase chain reaction in real-time mode with hybridization-fluorescent detection of amplification products and with the use of the “AmpliSens GM Plant-1-FL” and “AmpliKvant GM soya-FL” test systems. The results of this study showed that no analyzed foods of plant origin contained any regulatory sequences (35S, NOS и FMV) indicating presence of genetically modified organisms. Fluorescence through the FAM, Cy5 and ROX channels did not exceed its threshold value. Therefore, we did not detect any violations of the established requirements to occurrence of genetically modified organisms in foods for children. Further investigation that would involve examining a more extensive material is required to ensure proper assessment and control of food contamination with genetically modified organisms in order to ensure food safety.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49051245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.11
V. Mishchenko, I. Kshnyasev, Y. Davydova, I. V. Vyalykh
Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and other tick-borne infections correlates with a number of people applying for medical aid due to tick bites. Obviously, the number of registered tick bites is proportionate to people’s economic and recreational activities on an endemic territory and the quantity of hungry ticks. In its turn, the quantity of ticks depends on abundance of main hosts for blood-feeding stages but with a certain time lag caused by their life cycle parameters such as molting to the next stage, diapauses, and apparent seasonality in a continental boreal climate zone. Our research goal was to analyze and synthesize an adequate formalized/parameterized statistical model to describe and predict risks of tick bites for population. To describe dynamics and to predict a number of people bitten by ticks exemplified by the Sverdlovsk region, we used several linear (by parameters) logistic regression models. We applied a multimodel inference framework to assess whether the observed dynamics was described adequately. Long-tern dynamics of the number of people bitten by ticks in the Sverdlovsk region is characterized with an occurring high-amplitude slow long-wave oscillation (circadecadal one, with a quasi-period being approximately 10 years) and a short-wave 2–3-year cyclicity. The former may be associated with climatic rhythm and socioeconomic trends; the latter may be caused by biotic factors. By using the logit-regression model, we showed that the number of small mammals, both in the previous year and at the beginning of the current tick activity season can be a valuable predictor of a risk for population to be bitten by ticks. Predictive values of the created statistical model adequately describe an initial time series of chances/probabilities of tick bites.
{"title":"Substantiation of statistical model to describe and predict risks of tick bites for population","authors":"V. Mishchenko, I. Kshnyasev, Y. Davydova, I. V. Vyalykh","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.11","url":null,"abstract":"Incidence of tick-borne encephalitis and other tick-borne infections correlates with a number of people applying for medical aid due to tick bites. Obviously, the number of registered tick bites is proportionate to people’s economic and recreational activities on an endemic territory and the quantity of hungry ticks. In its turn, the quantity of ticks depends on abundance of main hosts for blood-feeding stages but with a certain time lag caused by their life cycle parameters such as molting to the next stage, diapauses, and apparent seasonality in a continental boreal climate zone. Our research goal was to analyze and synthesize an adequate formalized/parameterized statistical model to describe and predict risks of tick bites for population. To describe dynamics and to predict a number of people bitten by ticks exemplified by the Sverdlovsk region, we used several linear (by parameters) logistic regression models. We applied a multimodel inference framework to assess whether the observed dynamics was described adequately. Long-tern dynamics of the number of people bitten by ticks in the Sverdlovsk region is characterized with an occurring high-amplitude slow long-wave oscillation (circadecadal one, with a quasi-period being approximately 10 years) and a short-wave 2–3-year cyclicity. The former may be associated with climatic rhythm and socioeconomic trends; the latter may be caused by biotic factors. By using the logit-regression model, we showed that the number of small mammals, both in the previous year and at the beginning of the current tick activity season can be a valuable predictor of a risk for population to be bitten by ticks. Predictive values of the created statistical model adequately describe an initial time series of chances/probabilities of tick bites.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42104944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.01
N. Zaitseva, G. Onishchenko, I. May, P. Shur
The article focuses on generalizing Russian scientific and methodical developments aimed at updating and supplementing the health risk assessment methodology. This methodology is a key component in tackling tasks related to providing sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population. Russian approaches to risk assessment are shown to have a significant peculiarity, which is a wide use of methods of multidimensional statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, fuzzy logic, and their combinations. The most significant Russian scientific innovations include development of qualitative risk assessment, non-carcinogenic health risks included; severity of health disorders taken into account in risk assessment; methodical support for assessing integral risks under exposure to heterogeneous environmental factors. Russian experts suggested and developed an idea that it was possible to model evolution of risks and their growth under changing exposures. Approaches to assessing risks evolution under long-term exposure to variable factors made it possible to solve a whole set of applied hygienic tasks. In addition to establishing qualitative characteristics of non-carcinogenic risks under exposure to chemicals, methods for assessing risks under exposure to environmental noise, certain lifestyle factors and factors related to work process have also been substantiated and implemented. Progressive development of the health risk assessment methodology ensured operative, smooth and effective transitions of control and surveillance activities performed by Rospotrebnadzor onto a fundamentally new control platform that relies on the risk-based model. Obviously, analytical opportunities offered by the health risk assessment methodology are extensive. Development of methodical grounds in hygiene and epidemiology as well as design of applied algorithms and approaches to risk assessment and management based on the fundamental methodology should involve several trends. We should extend our knowledge on mechanisms of health disorders under exposure to heterogeneous environmental factors and work-related ones; hygienic standardization needs improvement; we should apply situational modeling and prediction of sanitary-epidemiological welfare under changing or preset conditions; we should provide substantiation for the strategic and tactical regulatory actions aimed at managing threats and risks. The experience accumulated in developing the health risk assessment methodology in variable spheres should be considered a starting point for creating new risk assessment and risk management technologies. They should give an opportunity to solve any tasks related to providing sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population in the Russian Federation.
{"title":"Developing the methodology for health risk assessment within public management of sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population","authors":"N. Zaitseva, G. Onishchenko, I. May, P. Shur","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.01","url":null,"abstract":"The article focuses on generalizing Russian scientific and methodical developments aimed at updating and supplementing the health risk assessment methodology. This methodology is a key component in tackling tasks related to providing sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population. Russian approaches to risk assessment are shown to have a significant peculiarity, which is a wide use of methods of multidimensional statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, fuzzy logic, and their combinations. The most significant Russian scientific innovations include development of qualitative risk assessment, non-carcinogenic health risks included; severity of health disorders taken into account in risk assessment; methodical support for assessing integral risks under exposure to heterogeneous environmental factors. Russian experts suggested and developed an idea that it was possible to model evolution of risks and their growth under changing exposures. Approaches to assessing risks evolution under long-term exposure to variable factors made it possible to solve a whole set of applied hygienic tasks. In addition to establishing qualitative characteristics of non-carcinogenic risks under exposure to chemicals, methods for assessing risks under exposure to environmental noise, certain lifestyle factors and factors related to work process have also been substantiated and implemented. Progressive development of the health risk assessment methodology ensured operative, smooth and effective transitions of control and surveillance activities performed by Rospotrebnadzor onto a fundamentally new control platform that relies on the risk-based model. Obviously, analytical opportunities offered by the health risk assessment methodology are extensive. Development of methodical grounds in hygiene and epidemiology as well as design of applied algorithms and approaches to risk assessment and management based on the fundamental methodology should involve several trends. We should extend our knowledge on mechanisms of health disorders under exposure to heterogeneous environmental factors and work-related ones; hygienic standardization needs improvement; we should apply situational modeling and prediction of sanitary-epidemiological welfare under changing or preset conditions; we should provide substantiation for the strategic and tactical regulatory actions aimed at managing threats and risks. The experience accumulated in developing the health risk assessment methodology in variable spheres should be considered a starting point for creating new risk assessment and risk management technologies. They should give an opportunity to solve any tasks related to providing sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population in the Russian Federation.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48443754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.06
A. G. Malysheva, N. Kalinina, S. M. Yudin
Up-to-date techniques applied in physical-chemical studies made it possible to identify and quantify chemical pollutants in the air inside contemporary dwelling in a large megacity and then create a database on them. This database has a list of more than 600 chemicals from 18 groups of volatile hydrocarbons and covers hygienic standards for their contents, their hazard category, and ranges of detected concentrations. Major sources of air pollution with these chemicals in dwelling were also identified. From the hygienic point of view, a significant fact is that there are no hygienic standards for more than 60 % of chemicals detected in air in dwelling. Formaldehyde, phenol, and styrene are priority chemicals for quality monitoring and risk-based control of hazards posed by chemical air pollution both in newly built houses that are at the approval stage and already exploited ones. Formaldehyde, benzene, phenol, styrene, acetophenone, ethylbenzene, hexanal, nonanal, butyl acetate, ethyl acetate, isopropanol, and trimethylbenzene are the most hygienically significant volatile organic compounds for quality control and health risk assessment considering frequency of their occurrence, concentration levels, concentrations exceeding MPC, group affiliation, hazard category, and ability to transform. When controlling natural chemicals that occur in air in dwelling due to some internal pollution sources, we should bear in mind that transformation may result in a new structure of pollution and new occurring chemicals can be more toxic and hazardous than original ones. To minimize risks associated with exposure to chemical pollution and to assess chemical safety of air in dwelling, we recommend wider use of up-to-date physical and chemical methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis thereby securing identification of a wide range of pollutants including potentially hazardous ones. Since certain chemicals have been detected for which no safety criteria have been developed so far, it is especially vital to perform research in the sphere of hygienic standardization and to develop methodical documents aimed at providing adequate hygienic assessment of quality and chemical safety of internal environment in dwelling.
{"title":"Chemical air pollution in dwelling as a health risk factor","authors":"A. G. Malysheva, N. Kalinina, S. M. Yudin","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.06","url":null,"abstract":"Up-to-date techniques applied in physical-chemical studies made it possible to identify and quantify chemical pollutants in the air inside contemporary dwelling in a large megacity and then create a database on them. This database has a list of more than 600 chemicals from 18 groups of volatile hydrocarbons and covers hygienic standards for their contents, their hazard category, and ranges of detected concentrations. Major sources of air pollution with these chemicals in dwelling were also identified. From the hygienic point of view, a significant fact is that there are no hygienic standards for more than 60 % of chemicals detected in air in dwelling. Formaldehyde, phenol, and styrene are priority chemicals for quality monitoring and risk-based control of hazards posed by chemical air pollution both in newly built houses that are at the approval stage and already exploited ones. Formaldehyde, benzene, phenol, styrene, acetophenone, ethylbenzene, hexanal, nonanal, butyl acetate, ethyl acetate, isopropanol, and trimethylbenzene are the most hygienically significant volatile organic compounds for quality control and health risk assessment considering frequency of their occurrence, concentration levels, concentrations exceeding MPC, group affiliation, hazard category, and ability to transform. When controlling natural chemicals that occur in air in dwelling due to some internal pollution sources, we should bear in mind that transformation may result in a new structure of pollution and new occurring chemicals can be more toxic and hazardous than original ones. To minimize risks associated with exposure to chemical pollution and to assess chemical safety of air in dwelling, we recommend wider use of up-to-date physical and chemical methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis thereby securing identification of a wide range of pollutants including potentially hazardous ones. Since certain chemicals have been detected for which no safety criteria have been developed so far, it is especially vital to perform research in the sphere of hygienic standardization and to develop methodical documents aimed at providing adequate hygienic assessment of quality and chemical safety of internal environment in dwelling.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43669059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.12
O. A. Orlova, N. Yumtsunova, T. Semenenko, A. Nozdracheva
Bone marrow recipients are the most immunocompromizied patients who are susceptible to multiple infections. It is especially true for long-term episodes of drug-associated granulocytopenia. Our research goal was to identify risk factors of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in patients after bone marrow transplantation (BMT). Risk factors of developing HAIs were identified by accomplishing an analytical epidemiological “case – control” study with 973 patients participating in it. They all underwent BMT in the Hematology, Chemotherapy and Bone Marrow Transplantation Department of the Pirogov National Medical and Surgical Center on a period from 2015 to 2018. The following diseases were diagnosed in them: lymphoma (n = 158), multiple myeloma (n = 96), and multiple sclerosis (n = 719). HAIs cases were selected based on the standard (epidemiological) case definition in accordance with the Federal Clinical Recommendations on Epidemiological Surveillance over HAIs approved by the National Association of Experts responsible for Control over Healthcare-Associated Infections. Retrospective analysis established 75 HAIs cases or 7.7 % of the total number of the analyzed patients after BMT. Catheter-related bloodstream infections took the leading place among all the HAIs accounting for 52.0 ± 2.4 %. They were followed by bloodstream infections, 28.0 ± 3.1 %; lower respiratory tracts infections, 17.0 ± 3.2 %; and post-injection complications, 3.0 ± 0.6 %. Oncological diseases were established to cause HAIs in bone marrow recipients more frequently (ОR = 5.603; 95 % CI = 3.422÷9.174) than multiple sclerosis (ОR = 0.178; 95 % CI = 0.109÷0.292). This indicates that an underlying disease has its influence on a risk of infectious complications. We established a direct correlation between HAIs frequency and contamination with opportunistic microorganisms detected in objects in the hospital environment (r = 0.79, p = 0.01). This calls for implementing up-to-date disinfection provided for such objects.
骨髓受体是免疫功能最低下的患者，易受多种感染。对于药物相关性粒细胞减少症的长期发作尤其如此。我们的研究目的是确定骨髓移植(BMT)后患者医疗保健相关感染(HAIs)的危险因素。通过973例患者参与的分析性流行病学“病例对照”研究，确定了发生HAIs的危险因素。他们都在2015年至2018年期间在皮罗戈夫国家医疗和外科中心的血液学、化疗和骨髓移植科接受了BMT。其中淋巴瘤158例，多发性骨髓瘤96例，多发性硬化症719例。根据国家卫生保健相关感染控制专家协会批准的《关于卫生保健相关感染监测的联邦临床建议》，根据标准(流行病学)病例定义选择卫生保健相关感染病例。回顾性分析发现75例HAIs，占BMT术后分析患者总数的7.7%。导管相关性血流感染在所有HAIs中占首位，占52.0±2.4%。其次是血流感染，占28.0±3.1%;下呼吸道感染，17.0±3.2%;注射后并发症，3.0±0.6%。肿瘤疾病更常引起骨髓受体HAIs (ОR = 5.603;95% CI = 3.422÷9.174)大于多发性硬化症(ОR = 0.178;95% ci = 0.109÷0.292)。这表明潜在疾病对感染性并发症的风险有影响。我们建立了医院环境中物体中检测到的机会微生物污染与HAIs频率直接相关(r = 0.79, p = 0.01)。这就要求对这些物品实施最新的消毒措施。
{"title":"Risk factors of healthcare-associated infections in recipients of bone marrow transplant","authors":"O. A. Orlova, N. Yumtsunova, T. Semenenko, A. Nozdracheva","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.12","url":null,"abstract":"Bone marrow recipients are the most immunocompromizied patients who are susceptible to multiple infections. It is especially true for long-term episodes of drug-associated granulocytopenia. Our research goal was to identify risk factors of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in patients after bone marrow transplantation (BMT). Risk factors of developing HAIs were identified by accomplishing an analytical epidemiological “case – control” study with 973 patients participating in it. They all underwent BMT in the Hematology, Chemotherapy and Bone Marrow Transplantation Department of the Pirogov National Medical and Surgical Center on a period from 2015 to 2018. The following diseases were diagnosed in them: lymphoma (n = 158), multiple myeloma (n = 96), and multiple sclerosis (n = 719). HAIs cases were selected based on the standard (epidemiological) case definition in accordance with the Federal Clinical Recommendations on Epidemiological Surveillance over HAIs approved by the National Association of Experts responsible for Control over Healthcare-Associated Infections. Retrospective analysis established 75 HAIs cases or 7.7 % of the total number of the analyzed patients after BMT. Catheter-related bloodstream infections took the leading place among all the HAIs accounting for 52.0 ± 2.4 %. They were followed by bloodstream infections, 28.0 ± 3.1 %; lower respiratory tracts infections, 17.0 ± 3.2 %; and post-injection complications, 3.0 ± 0.6 %. Oncological diseases were established to cause HAIs in bone marrow recipients more frequently (ОR = 5.603; 95 % CI = 3.422÷9.174) than multiple sclerosis (ОR = 0.178; 95 % CI = 0.109÷0.292). This indicates that an underlying disease has its influence on a risk of infectious complications. We established a direct correlation between HAIs frequency and contamination with opportunistic microorganisms detected in objects in the hospital environment (r = 0.79, p = 0.01). This calls for implementing up-to-date disinfection provided for such objects.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47729375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.09
М.V. Glukhikh, S. Kleyn, D. Kiryanov, М.R. Kamaltdinov
The article dwells on cause-effect relations between certain socio-hygienic factors and age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. New research trends in hygiene, a multidisciplinary approach to studies in the field and the current state policy make the present work topical. Our methodical approach to predicting probable age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases relied on applying artificial neural networks. We analyzed a set of indicators that described the public healthcare system, sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory, lifestyle, economic conditions, sociodemographic conditions, and primary incidence. Overall, we obtained 18 models (as per 5-year age-specific periods) of a relationship between socio-hygienic determinants and mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. The determination coefficients fell within 0.01–0.75 range and the greatest explanatory power occurred when the age period “30 years and older” was analyzed. We detected comparability of variational series obtained for mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among the whole population and the determination coefficients of the created models. We established predictive estimates of life expectancy at birth (LEB) in case there were changes in the analyzed socio-hygienic determinants by 2024 set within a certain scenario. Thus, changes in the whole set of determinants would result in 514 days added to LEB; lifestyle-related indicators, 205 days; indicators describing sanitary-epidemiological welfare, 126 days; economic indicators, 102 days; sociodemographic indicators, 101 days; primary incidence rates, 40 days; indicators describing the public healthcare system, 19 days. Several determinants were shown to be the most significant for reducing mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among working age population and older age groups. They are indicators describing people’s physical and motor activity, income levels, consumption of vegetables, education, and working conditions. Our research results are consistent with those obtained by other studies with their focus on establishing cause-effect relations between environmental factors and public health.
{"title":"Life expectancy at birth for the rf population: prediction based on modeling influence exerted by a set of socio-hygienic determinants on age-specific mortality rates exemplified by diseases of the circulatory system","authors":"М.V. Glukhikh, S. Kleyn, D. Kiryanov, М.R. Kamaltdinov","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.09","url":null,"abstract":"The article dwells on cause-effect relations between certain socio-hygienic factors and age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. New research trends in hygiene, a multidisciplinary approach to studies in the field and the current state policy make the present work topical. Our methodical approach to predicting probable age-specific mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases relied on applying artificial neural networks. We analyzed a set of indicators that described the public healthcare system, sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory, lifestyle, economic conditions, sociodemographic conditions, and primary incidence. Overall, we obtained 18 models (as per 5-year age-specific periods) of a relationship between socio-hygienic determinants and mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. The determination coefficients fell within 0.01–0.75 range and the greatest explanatory power occurred when the age period “30 years and older” was analyzed. We detected comparability of variational series obtained for mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among the whole population and the determination coefficients of the created models. We established predictive estimates of life expectancy at birth (LEB) in case there were changes in the analyzed socio-hygienic determinants by 2024 set within a certain scenario. Thus, changes in the whole set of determinants would result in 514 days added to LEB; lifestyle-related indicators, 205 days; indicators describing sanitary-epidemiological welfare, 126 days; economic indicators, 102 days; sociodemographic indicators, 101 days; primary incidence rates, 40 days; indicators describing the public healthcare system, 19 days. Several determinants were shown to be the most significant for reducing mortality due to cardiovascular diseases among working age population and older age groups. They are indicators describing people’s physical and motor activity, income levels, consumption of vegetables, education, and working conditions. Our research results are consistent with those obtained by other studies with their focus on establishing cause-effect relations between environmental factors and public health.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48670343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.03
S. Kleyn, М. Zemlyanova, Yu. V. Koldibekova, М.V. Glukhikh
The article dwells on climatic and chemical risk factors that influence health of people living in the RF arctic and sub-arctic regions on population and sub-population levels. We used a model describing cause-effect relations between environmental factors and life expectancy at birth based on an artificial neural network to predict a future medical and demographic situation in territories with arctic and sub-arctic climate in the RF. Children’s health was examined profoundly due to a participating representative sampling. We comparatively analyzed clinical, biochemical and general clinical indicators in the test and reference groups using standard statistical procedures and statistical software packages. We established that average monthly temperatures in July grew on average by 3.4 % over 2010–2019 on the examined territories in the RF; precipitations in January and July grew by 13.0–15.1 %. The article presents differentiated estimates of emerging influence on life expectancy at birth (LEB) exerted by weather and climatic conditions on the analyzed territories with arctic and sub-arctic climate. Losses in LEB vary from 164 days in Yakutia to 349 days in Chukotka. Aggregated influence of weather and climatic factors in the arctic and sub-arctic zones in 2010–2019 produced variable effects on LEB, starting from negative ones that resulted in its decline in the Magadan region, the Nenets Autonomous Area, Chukotka, and the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area (-254; -211; -109 and -8 days accordingly) and to positive ones that led to the growth in LEB by up to 111 days in Yakutia. Children who are simultaneously exposed to adverse weather and climatic factors in the sub-arctic zone and substantial chemical pollution in ambient air have more frequent and more apparent negative changes in their health indicators in comparison with children from the reference group. Thus, respiratory diseases and diseases of the nervous system were by 5.6 times more frequent in the test group; levels of leukocytes, ESR, TSH, Apo-B and Apo-B/ApoA1 in blood were by 1.3–1.7 times higher, р = 0.0001. Levels of Apo A1, hydrocortisone, and serotonin in blood were by 1.2–2.5 times lower, р = 0.0001–0.040, etc. A share contribution made by chemical factors to associated respiratory diseases and diseases of the nervous system amounted to 25–31 %; adverse climatic factors, 10–15 %
{"title":"Climatic and chemical health risk factors for people living in arctic and subarctic regions: population and sub-population levels","authors":"S. Kleyn, М. Zemlyanova, Yu. V. Koldibekova, М.V. Glukhikh","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.03","url":null,"abstract":"The article dwells on climatic and chemical risk factors that influence health of people living in the RF arctic and sub-arctic regions on population and sub-population levels. We used a model describing cause-effect relations between environmental factors and life expectancy at birth based on an artificial neural network to predict a future medical and demographic situation in territories with arctic and sub-arctic climate in the RF. Children’s health was examined profoundly due to a participating representative sampling. We comparatively analyzed clinical, biochemical and general clinical indicators in the test and reference groups using standard statistical procedures and statistical software packages. We established that average monthly temperatures in July grew on average by 3.4 % over 2010–2019 on the examined territories in the RF; precipitations in January and July grew by 13.0–15.1 %. The article presents differentiated estimates of emerging influence on life expectancy at birth (LEB) exerted by weather and climatic conditions on the analyzed territories with arctic and sub-arctic climate. Losses in LEB vary from 164 days in Yakutia to 349 days in Chukotka. Aggregated influence of weather and climatic factors in the arctic and sub-arctic zones in 2010–2019 produced variable effects on LEB, starting from negative ones that resulted in its decline in the Magadan region, the Nenets Autonomous Area, Chukotka, and the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area (-254; -211; -109 and -8 days accordingly) and to positive ones that led to the growth in LEB by up to 111 days in Yakutia. Children who are simultaneously exposed to adverse weather and climatic factors in the sub-arctic zone and substantial chemical pollution in ambient air have more frequent and more apparent negative changes in their health indicators in comparison with children from the reference group. Thus, respiratory diseases and diseases of the nervous system were by 5.6 times more frequent in the test group; levels of leukocytes, ESR, TSH, Apo-B and Apo-B/ApoA1 in blood were by 1.3–1.7 times higher, р = 0.0001. Levels of Apo A1, hydrocortisone, and serotonin in blood were by 1.2–2.5 times lower, р = 0.0001–0.040, etc. A share contribution made by chemical factors to associated respiratory diseases and diseases of the nervous system amounted to 25–31 %; adverse climatic factors, 10–15 %","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47690770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.16
K. Starkova, О. Dolgikh, О.А. Kazakova, Т.А. Legostaeva
Examining genetic mechanisms of essential hypertension as a cardiovascular risk factor will make it possible to provide monitoring of public health using a personified approach to early diagnostics of cardiovascular pathologies. This will raise effectiveness of preventive activities aimed at reducing population mortality. Our research goal was to examine features of ACE (the angiotensin-converting enzyme) I/D gene polymorphism (rs4646994) as a risk factor of essential hypertension. Our test group included 35 people with diagnosed essential hypertension; the reference group was made of 34 relatively healthy people. Lipid spectrum indicators were estimated with an automated or semi-automated analyzer or by calculation. Insulin and cytokines were determined by using the enzyme immunoassay. Genotyping was performed by using the polymerase chain reaction in real time mode. The research results revealed that the examined patients with essential hypertension had authentic differences from the reference group regarding BMI, lipid spectrum indicators with very low density lipoproteins and triglycerides contents being by 1.3 times higher; insulin contents, by 1.9 times higher; IL-6 contents, by 2.2 times higher; and VEGF, by 1.4 times higher. Genetic analysis revealed 1.3-time higher prevalence of the D-allele of the ACE I/D gene in the patients with essential hypertension (we showed that the dominant inheritance was adequate, P = 0.041). The carriage of this allele was associated with the analyzed disease (OR = 3.16; 95 % CI = 1.08–9.20). We showed an association between insertion-deletion polymorphisms of the ACE (the angiotensin-converting enzyme) I/D gene and developing essential hypertension in the examined test group (the relative risk was RR = 1.87; 95 % CI =1.07–3.61). This polymorphism can be considered a potential marker of sensitivity to developing essential hypertension.
研究原发性高血压作为心血管危险因素的遗传机制，将有可能利用个性化方法对心血管疾病进行早期诊断，从而监测公众健康。这将提高旨在降低人口死亡率的预防活动的效力。我们的研究目的是研究ACE(血管紧张素转换酶)I/D基因多态性(rs4646994)作为原发性高血压的危险因素的特征。我们的试验组包括35名诊断为原发性高血压的人;参照组由34名相对健康的人组成。脂质谱指标用自动化或半自动分析仪或通过计算估计。采用酶免疫分析法测定胰岛素和细胞因子。采用实时聚合酶链反应进行基因分型。研究结果显示，被检查的原发性高血压患者在BMI、脂质谱指标(极低密度脂蛋白)和甘油三酯含量等方面与对照组存在真实差异，差异高1.3倍;胰岛素含量，高出1.9倍;IL-6含量提高2.2倍;而VEGF则高出1.4倍。遗传分析显示，原发性高血压患者ACE I/D基因D等位基因的患病率高出1.3倍(我们发现显性遗传充足，P = 0.041)。携带该等位基因与所分析的疾病相关(OR = 3.16;95% ci = 1.08-9.20)。我们发现，在检查的实验组中，ACE(血管紧张素转换酶)I/D基因的插入-缺失多态性与发生原发性高血压之间存在关联(相对风险RR = 1.87;95% ci = 1.07-3.61)。这种多态性可以被认为是原发性高血压敏感性的潜在标志。
{"title":"ACE I/D genetic polymorphism as a risk factor of essential hypertension","authors":"K. Starkova, О. Dolgikh, О.А. Kazakova, Т.А. Legostaeva","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.16","url":null,"abstract":"Examining genetic mechanisms of essential hypertension as a cardiovascular risk factor will make it possible to provide monitoring of public health using a personified approach to early diagnostics of cardiovascular pathologies. This will raise effectiveness of preventive activities aimed at reducing population mortality. Our research goal was to examine features of ACE (the angiotensin-converting enzyme) I/D gene polymorphism (rs4646994) as a risk factor of essential hypertension. Our test group included 35 people with diagnosed essential hypertension; the reference group was made of 34 relatively healthy people. Lipid spectrum indicators were estimated with an automated or semi-automated analyzer or by calculation. Insulin and cytokines were determined by using the enzyme immunoassay. Genotyping was performed by using the polymerase chain reaction in real time mode. The research results revealed that the examined patients with essential hypertension had authentic differences from the reference group regarding BMI, lipid spectrum indicators with very low density lipoproteins and triglycerides contents being by 1.3 times higher; insulin contents, by 1.9 times higher; IL-6 contents, by 2.2 times higher; and VEGF, by 1.4 times higher. Genetic analysis revealed 1.3-time higher prevalence of the D-allele of the ACE I/D gene in the patients with essential hypertension (we showed that the dominant inheritance was adequate, P = 0.041). The carriage of this allele was associated with the analyzed disease (OR = 3.16; 95 % CI = 1.08–9.20). We showed an association between insertion-deletion polymorphisms of the ACE (the angiotensin-converting enzyme) I/D gene and developing essential hypertension in the examined test group (the relative risk was RR = 1.87; 95 % CI =1.07–3.61). This polymorphism can be considered a potential marker of sensitivity to developing essential hypertension.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47400101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.08
S. Shayakhmetov, A. Alekseenko, A. Merinov, O. Zhurba
Potential harmful effects produced by highly toxic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) on health of workers employed at aluminum production make it necessary to identify biomarkers of exposure to the toxicants and to assess health risks. Our research goal was to identify and assess contents of 1-hydroxypytene (1-ОНРyr) as a biomarker of exposure to PAH. The chemical was identified in urine of workers from electrolysis workshops where either conventional or updated aluminum production technologies were employed. We comparatively examined contents of the marker metabolite 1-ОНРyr in urine of 142 workers with basic occupations employed at electrolysis workshops with different aluminum production technologies (the test group) and 14 people who were included in the reference group. The chemical was identified with the authors’ high-sensitivity gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method for 1-OHPyr identification in urine with the lower limit of detection being equal to 0.1 µg/l and total error not exceeding 15 %. The research results revealed high 1-ОНРyr contents in urine of workers employed at electrolysis workshops. These contents were by 2–30 times higher than the permissible value of the biological exposure index (BEI) and were associated with exposure to PAH components, an aluminum production technology applied in a given workshop and a worker’s occupation. The highest PAH burdens as per 1-ОНРyr contents in urine and associated health risks were determined for workers who handled anodes of electrolyzers and crane operators in workshops that employed a conventional technology with self-baking anodes. The lowest ones were established for electrolysis operators and anode frame operators in workshops that employed an updated technology with prebake anodes. It is noteworthy that 1-ОНРyr contents were by 2.7–4.7 times higher than permissible BEI value in urine of EOT (bridge) crane operators since these cranes were located in the upper zone of the analyzed electrolysis workshops. Our research results allow us to recommend the inclusion of biological monitoring of 1-OHPyr contents in urine of workers employed at electrolysis workshops of aluminum productions into periodical medical examinations. This is necessary for developing activities aimed at primary and secondary prevention of occupational and work-related diseases.
{"title":"Identification and characterization of 1-hydroxypyrene contents in urine as a marker of exposure to pah in workers of electrolysis workshops at aluminum production","authors":"S. Shayakhmetov, A. Alekseenko, A. Merinov, O. Zhurba","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.3.08","url":null,"abstract":"Potential harmful effects produced by highly toxic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) on health of workers employed at aluminum production make it necessary to identify biomarkers of exposure to the toxicants and to assess health risks. Our research goal was to identify and assess contents of 1-hydroxypytene (1-ОНРyr) as a biomarker of exposure to PAH. The chemical was identified in urine of workers from electrolysis workshops where either conventional or updated aluminum production technologies were employed. We comparatively examined contents of the marker metabolite 1-ОНРyr in urine of 142 workers with basic occupations employed at electrolysis workshops with different aluminum production technologies (the test group) and 14 people who were included in the reference group. The chemical was identified with the authors’ high-sensitivity gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method for 1-OHPyr identification in urine with the lower limit of detection being equal to 0.1 µg/l and total error not exceeding 15 %. The research results revealed high 1-ОНРyr contents in urine of workers employed at electrolysis workshops. These contents were by 2–30 times higher than the permissible value of the biological exposure index (BEI) and were associated with exposure to PAH components, an aluminum production technology applied in a given workshop and a worker’s occupation. The highest PAH burdens as per 1-ОНРyr contents in urine and associated health risks were determined for workers who handled anodes of electrolyzers and crane operators in workshops that employed a conventional technology with self-baking anodes. The lowest ones were established for electrolysis operators and anode frame operators in workshops that employed an updated technology with prebake anodes. It is noteworthy that 1-ОНРyr contents were by 2.7–4.7 times higher than permissible BEI value in urine of EOT (bridge) crane operators since these cranes were located in the upper zone of the analyzed electrolysis workshops. Our research results allow us to recommend the inclusion of biological monitoring of 1-OHPyr contents in urine of workers employed at electrolysis workshops of aluminum productions into periodical medical examinations. This is necessary for developing activities aimed at primary and secondary prevention of occupational and work-related diseases.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45042468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2022.2.12
T. I. Burtseva, V.A. Solopova, A. Baitelova, N. N. Rakhimova
Personnel who work in laboratories and directly deal with detecting and examining pathogenic biological agents (PBA) in human biomaterials have to face high risks of becoming infected. At present, working conditions at workplaces of personnel in such laboratories are to be analyzed and checked thoroughly with subsequent implementation of relevant correction measures. We performed qualitative analysis of infection risks in clinical and diagnostic laboratories using a reason tree and event tree analysis and determined a risk probability range for an ending event considering combined effects produced by preconditions. We revealed basic reasons why personnel in medical laboratories became infected when working with PBA. The events were considered at three levels and four directions in their development. We performed mathematical calculation of possible event combinations and determined the whole probability range for occurrence of the events. Quantitative risk analysis showed that a probability of a person becoming infected remained within 0.9∙10–4–0.9∙10–3 range even in case of the most unfavorable outcome. The study provides a well-substantiated conclusion about peculiarities of work tasks accomplished in laboratories; we established that laboratory personnel who were involved in determining drug resistance of microbacteria had the highest risks of infection. The most hazardous scenarios of emergencies were identified; they made the highest contribution to the analyzed risk. We established that a probability of personnel becoming infected that starts with the value being 1.3∙10–6 occurs when immune prevention is neglected and a disease is revealed too late. It is advisable to analyze ways how emergencies develop in medical laboratories since this helps to make necessary amendments in the system and influence factors of its functioning. This analysis procedure gives an opportunity to select the most relevant measures for protection and prevention of emergencies involving PBA leakage out of all the available ones. These measures can reduce risks of infection for personnel down to their acceptable levels.
{"title":"Infection of personnel working in clinical and diagnostic laboratories: qualitative analysis and risk assessment","authors":"T. I. Burtseva, V.A. Solopova, A. Baitelova, N. N. Rakhimova","doi":"10.21668/health.risk/2022.2.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21668/health.risk/2022.2.12","url":null,"abstract":"Personnel who work in laboratories and directly deal with detecting and examining pathogenic biological agents (PBA) in human biomaterials have to face high risks of becoming infected. At present, working conditions at workplaces of personnel in such laboratories are to be analyzed and checked thoroughly with subsequent implementation of relevant correction measures. We performed qualitative analysis of infection risks in clinical and diagnostic laboratories using a reason tree and event tree analysis and determined a risk probability range for an ending event considering combined effects produced by preconditions. We revealed basic reasons why personnel in medical laboratories became infected when working with PBA. The events were considered at three levels and four directions in their development. We performed mathematical calculation of possible event combinations and determined the whole probability range for occurrence of the events. Quantitative risk analysis showed that a probability of a person becoming infected remained within 0.9∙10–4–0.9∙10–3 range even in case of the most unfavorable outcome. The study provides a well-substantiated conclusion about peculiarities of work tasks accomplished in laboratories; we established that laboratory personnel who were involved in determining drug resistance of microbacteria had the highest risks of infection. The most hazardous scenarios of emergencies were identified; they made the highest contribution to the analyzed risk. We established that a probability of personnel becoming infected that starts with the value being 1.3∙10–6 occurs when immune prevention is neglected and a disease is revealed too late. It is advisable to analyze ways how emergencies develop in medical laboratories since this helps to make necessary amendments in the system and influence factors of its functioning. This analysis procedure gives an opportunity to select the most relevant measures for protection and prevention of emergencies involving PBA leakage out of all the available ones. These measures can reduce risks of infection for personnel down to their acceptable levels.","PeriodicalId":12945,"journal":{"name":"Health Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45781169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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