Martin Achtnicht, Robert Germeshausen, Kathrine von Graevenitz
In this paper, we investigate the effect of the state-level renewable heating mandate for existing homes in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany's third largest federal state. The mandate requires homeowners to supply at least 10 % of their heat demand with renewable energy when they replace their existing heating system. To assess the impact of the renewable heating standard on the uptake of renewable heating systems, we use unique data on a federal government subsidy scheme and exploit geographic differences in state laws over time. We find no evidence of an effect of the mandate even after restricting distance to the state border and refining the data set through matching on population and building characteristics. These findings are unchanged, when we allow effects to vary across space or over time. While energy efficiency and renewable standards are often criticized for not being cost-effective, our results challenge the widespread view that a standard is nevertheless successful in achieving its policy goal.
{"title":"Does the Stick Make the Carrot More Attractive? State Mandates and Uptake of Renewable Heating Technologies","authors":"Martin Achtnicht, Robert Germeshausen, Kathrine von Graevenitz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3091593","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3091593","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the effect of the state-level renewable heating mandate for existing homes in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany's third largest federal state. The mandate requires homeowners to supply at least 10 % of their heat demand with renewable energy when they replace their existing heating system. To assess the impact of the renewable heating standard on the uptake of renewable heating systems, we use unique data on a federal government subsidy scheme and exploit geographic differences in state laws over time. We find no evidence of an effect of the mandate even after restricting distance to the state border and refining the data set through matching on population and building characteristics. These findings are unchanged, when we allow effects to vary across space or over time. While energy efficiency and renewable standards are often criticized for not being cost-effective, our results challenge the widespread view that a standard is nevertheless successful in achieving its policy goal.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128965128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Most contemporary decentralization has occurred at the local (district) rather than regional (provincial) level. Why? We advance a theory highlighting the political incentives of central authorities to bypass the regional tier of government in favor of decentralizing to smaller, more fragmented units. Regional decentralization can better take advantage of economies of scale and scope in public service provision, but it also enables regional political opposition to scale more effectively. Central authorities may therefore have an incentive to forgo the welfare benefits of regional decentralization in favor of the imperfect substitute of local decentralization, which provides some of the same benefits at less risk. Drawing on cases from Africa and Latin America, we discuss when and how strategic local decentralization can be an effective strategy to maintain political control in divided societies and when it is likely to be ineffective.
{"title":"Strategic Inefficient Decentralization: Local and Regional Devolution as Substitutes","authors":"Joan Ricart-Huguet, Emily A. Sellars","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3885174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3885174","url":null,"abstract":"Most contemporary decentralization has occurred at the local (district) rather than regional (provincial) level. Why? We advance a theory highlighting the political incentives of central authorities to bypass the regional tier of government in favor of decentralizing to smaller, more fragmented units. Regional decentralization can better take advantage of economies of scale and scope in public service provision, but it also enables regional political opposition to scale more effectively. Central authorities may therefore have an incentive to forgo the welfare benefits of regional decentralization in favor of the imperfect substitute of local decentralization, which provides some of the same benefits at less risk. Drawing on cases from Africa and Latin America, we discuss when and how strategic local decentralization can be an effective strategy to maintain political control in divided societies and when it is likely to be ineffective.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"171 S374","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120851307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 pandemic brought widespread health, social and economic hardship to households and businesses across Illinois, the nation, and the world. This report provides an initial look at some early evidence regarding one element of COVID-19 economic challenges by conducting comparative analysis of small business conditions in Illinois and in neighboring states. The analysis relies primarily on two data sources: The US Census Bureau Small Business Pulse (SBFS) surveys and Opportunity Insights economic tracker. More than 90% of Week 1 Illinois SBFS survey respondents said that the pandemic had a moderate or large negative effect on their business. This was similar to the national (U.S.) share but somewhat higher than other states in the region with the exception of Michigan. The share of respondents with such a negative response gradually declined over the next eight weeks in Illinois and nationally. The data from the SBFS survey, which reports small business’ self-assessment of the pandemic’s economic impact, suggests that the effect in Illinois has moderated somewhat over time and is quite similar to the impact nationally and among neighboring states. Opportunity Insights data is based on actual market transaction from a possibly non-random selection of private sector sources. Based on this data, Illinois’ Cook county its surrounding counties suffered a precipitous decline in the share of businesses that were open beginning in early March. Each of the counties recovered somewhat as time progressed, but all remained far below their January 2020 levels as late as March 2020. Indiana counties exhibited a similar pattern. We also examined Illinois border counties and find that in most cases they suffered consequences similar to their pair across state borders despite the somewhat different timing and strictures of state stay-at-home orders. We see similar patterns between Illinois and each of its neighboring states and there is little evidence that states’ stay-at-home orders were a significant predictor of the negative economic outcomes for small business.
{"title":"The COVID-19 Pandemic and Small Business in Illinois: A Preliminary Comparison of Neighboring States","authors":"David Merriman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3885796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3885796","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic brought widespread health, social and economic hardship to households and businesses across Illinois, the nation, and the world. This report provides an initial look at some early evidence regarding one element of COVID-19 economic challenges by conducting comparative analysis of small business conditions in Illinois and in neighboring states. The analysis relies primarily on two data sources: The US Census Bureau Small Business Pulse (SBFS) surveys and Opportunity Insights economic tracker. More than 90% of Week 1 Illinois SBFS survey respondents said that the pandemic had a moderate or large negative effect on their business. This was similar to the national (U.S.) share but somewhat higher than other states in the region with the exception of Michigan. The share of respondents with such a negative response gradually declined over the next eight weeks in Illinois and nationally. The data from the SBFS survey, which reports small business’ self-assessment of the pandemic’s economic impact, suggests that the effect in Illinois has moderated somewhat over time and is quite similar to the impact nationally and among neighboring states. Opportunity Insights data is based on actual market transaction from a possibly non-random selection of private sector sources. Based on this data, Illinois’ Cook county its surrounding counties suffered a precipitous decline in the share of businesses that were open beginning in early March. Each of the counties recovered somewhat as time progressed, but all remained far below their January 2020 levels as late as March 2020. Indiana counties exhibited a similar pattern. We also examined Illinois border counties and find that in most cases they suffered consequences similar to their pair across state borders despite the somewhat different timing and strictures of state stay-at-home orders. We see similar patterns between Illinois and each of its neighboring states and there is little evidence that states’ stay-at-home orders were a significant predictor of the negative economic outcomes for small business.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122373266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sustaining democratic governance is a philosophy hinged largely on the functionality of the institutions of governance in line with democratic process and norms. The study established that virile democratic system is an illusion when a chunk of citizens are less concerned and disinterested in political activities of their country especially when it comes to voting. That is, a carefree attitude by the citizens towards voting is inimical and an aberration to widely celebrated modern democracy. Expectedly, political parties play a crucial role in citizens’ participation in politics, because they are mobilization forces. When political parties stimulate violence then it becomes a problem. The core interest of this study therefore is to investigate the interplay between campaign characters of political parties and low voters turn out in Nigeria. Secondary method of data collection was adopted, as published article, books and relevant reports were captured from the national dailies. This study out found that in Nigeria, political parties are liabilities rather than assets to the Nigerian Democracy, considering their attitude that encourage voters’ apathy. Indeed, failed electoral promises; ideological bareness; electoral violence, high level of indiscipline and unprincipled party defection characterizes Nigeria’s political parties and by implication stimulate among the citizens a mood of pessimism about partisan politics. As the 2019 general elections had been concluded and Nigerians continue to yearn for sustainable democratic governance, political parties should reposition themselves; by being well grounded on ethos and ideology and build confidence and trust in the electorates. Hence, there is a compelling need for Nigerian political parties to be democratic, as democracy is incontrovertibly inconceivable without virile political parties
{"title":"The Blemish of Voter Apathy in Sustaining Democratic Governance in Nigeria: The Role of Political Parties","authors":"Dr. Matthew F. Bello","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3858133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3858133","url":null,"abstract":"Sustaining democratic governance is a philosophy hinged largely on the functionality of the institutions of governance in line with democratic process and norms. The study established that virile democratic system is an illusion when a chunk of citizens are less concerned and disinterested in political activities of their country especially when it comes to voting. That is, a carefree attitude by the citizens towards voting is inimical and an aberration to widely celebrated modern democracy. Expectedly, political parties play a crucial role in citizens’ participation in politics, because they are mobilization forces. When political parties stimulate violence then it becomes a problem. The core interest of this study therefore is to investigate the interplay between campaign characters of political parties and low voters turn out in Nigeria. Secondary method of data collection was adopted, as published article, books and relevant reports were captured from the national dailies. This study out found that in Nigeria, political parties are liabilities rather than assets to the Nigerian Democracy, considering their attitude that encourage voters’ apathy. Indeed, failed electoral promises; ideological bareness; electoral violence, high level of indiscipline and unprincipled party defection characterizes Nigeria’s political parties and by implication stimulate among the citizens a mood of pessimism about partisan politics. As the 2019 general elections had been concluded and Nigerians continue to yearn for sustainable democratic governance, political parties should reposition themselves; by being well grounded on ethos and ideology and build confidence and trust in the electorates. Hence, there is a compelling need for Nigerian political parties to be democratic, as democracy is incontrovertibly inconceivable without virile political parties","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128268103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic decentralization, while increasing regional autonomy in developing the economy, also increases the risk of government-business collusion and local capture. We argue that in authoritarian regimes, local leadership rotation mitigates collusion through breaking local government ties with business. We further propose that the nature of state-business ties is heterogeneous, with institutional government-business ties more stable, and personal government-business ties more easily broken. We test our theory in the context of local leadership turnovers and firm subsidies in China in the wake of the 2008 fiscal stimulus program. Using data from publicly listed firms, we find that new provincial governors, immediately after taking office, distribute significantly less subsidies to private enterprises. We also present suggestive evidence that governors have career incentives to distribute subsidies towards state-owned enterprises early in their tenure. Our findings illustrate that leadership rotation presents a partial solution to the problem of local capture in the absence of elections.
{"title":"How Local Leadership Rotation Breaks State-Business Ties in China","authors":"Yue Hou, Siyao Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3640646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3640646","url":null,"abstract":"Economic decentralization, while increasing regional autonomy in developing the economy, also increases the risk of government-business collusion and local capture. We argue that in authoritarian regimes, local leadership rotation mitigates collusion through breaking local government ties with business. We further propose that the nature of state-business ties is heterogeneous, with institutional government-business ties more stable, and personal government-business ties more easily broken. We test our theory in the context of local leadership turnovers and firm subsidies in China in the wake of the 2008 fiscal stimulus program. Using data from publicly listed firms, we find that new provincial governors, immediately after taking office, distribute significantly less subsidies to private enterprises. We also present suggestive evidence that governors have career incentives to distribute subsidies towards state-owned enterprises early in their tenure. Our findings illustrate that leadership rotation presents a partial solution to the problem of local capture in the absence of elections.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125808394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We perform 360 review on the state of Colorado to analyze the strengths and weaknesses, and provides recommendations to aid policy makers to enhance the economic growth and development. Across all U.S. states, the overall ranking of Colorado is top 10 and in the economy matrix is top one. Yet, Colorado is lagging in other key matrices, such as Opportunity; Fiscal Stability; Crime & Corrections and Natural Environment. These weaknesses hurt minorities and disadvantage groups, thus we created a new index named as “Minorities ‘I can’t breathe’ index”, that measures how friendly is the state toward minorities and find Colorado to be above average at top 12. Colorado is bottom three (bottom 11) in the nation in education (income) gap by race. The study includes cross-sectional analyses across sectors and cities. Between 2010 and 2019, we find that the construction sector is the fastest growing sector (6.2%), while manufacturing is the slowest (1.8%); Fort Collin is the fastest earnings (3.4%), followed by Denver (3.2%), then Boulder (2.7%) and Colorado Springs (2.5%). Based on the socioeconomic of Colorado, our key recommendations to reach the top are to further investing in education to meet the rapid growth of minorities (the fraction of the Latino communities expected to reach 35% in 2050); our principal is that human capital is the medical to growth. In addition, we recommend a massive infrastructure investment (quadruple the current investment) and zero corporate income tax (recall, Taxes is our main competitor). Should these recommendations implemented, we project with high probabilities that Colorado will reach the top by 2050.
{"title":"Colorado 2050: The Race to the Top!","authors":"Yosef Bonaparte","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3624876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3624876","url":null,"abstract":"We perform 360 review on the state of Colorado to analyze the strengths and weaknesses, and provides recommendations to aid policy makers to enhance the economic growth and development. Across all U.S. states, the overall ranking of Colorado is top 10 and in the economy matrix is top one. Yet, Colorado is lagging in other key matrices, such as Opportunity; Fiscal Stability; Crime & Corrections and Natural Environment. These weaknesses hurt minorities and disadvantage groups, thus we created a new index named as “Minorities ‘I can’t breathe’ index”, that measures how friendly is the state toward minorities and find Colorado to be above average at top 12. Colorado is bottom three (bottom 11) in the nation in education (income) gap by race. The study includes cross-sectional analyses across sectors and cities. Between 2010 and 2019, we find that the construction sector is the fastest growing sector (6.2%), while manufacturing is the slowest (1.8%); Fort Collin is the fastest earnings (3.4%), followed by Denver (3.2%), then Boulder (2.7%) and Colorado Springs (2.5%). Based on the socioeconomic of Colorado, our key recommendations to reach the top are to further investing in education to meet the rapid growth of minorities (the fraction of the Latino communities expected to reach 35% in 2050); our principal is that human capital is the medical to growth. In addition, we recommend a massive infrastructure investment (quadruple the current investment) and zero corporate income tax (recall, Taxes is our main competitor). Should these recommendations implemented, we project with high probabilities that Colorado will reach the top by 2050.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117024845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Housing instability is a constant fact of life for many people in the United States – a fact which is made more urgent and salient during periods of economic disruption such as that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. A relatively new line of research has illuminated the degree to which housing instability, in the form of eviction, is a substantial contributor to health risks, such as “deaths of despair” from alcohol or drug-related accidental poisonings. While eviction is a persistent threat in the U.S., there is almost no research available to guide decision makers about which policies are more or less effective at lowering eviction rates. We provide a theoretical framework of the eviction process highlighting the role that policy might be expected to play in determining local eviction rates. We test this theory using data on evictions for nearly all U.S. counties from 2004-2016 with a panel of state-level landlord-tenant laws and a panel of local housing-specific investments by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. We find strong agreement between the theoretical predictions and empirical net effects for nearly all policies studied, and discuss how states and localities may better use combinations of policies to achieving lower eviction rates.
住房不稳定是许多美国人生活中一个持续存在的事实，在2020年COVID-19大流行等经济动荡时期，这一事实变得更加紧迫和突出。一项相对较新的研究表明，以驱逐为形式的住房不稳定在很大程度上造成了健康风险，例如因酒精或与毒品有关的意外中毒而"绝望死亡"。虽然驱逐在美国是一个持续存在的威胁，但几乎没有研究可以指导决策者了解哪些政策在降低驱逐率方面或多或少有效。我们提供了一个驱逐过程的理论框架，强调了政策在决定当地驱逐率方面可能发挥的作用。我们使用2004-2016年美国几乎所有县的驱逐数据来检验这一理论，其中包括一个州级房东-租户法律小组和一个住房和城市发展部(Department of Housing and Urban Development)的地方住房特定投资小组。我们发现几乎所有研究政策的理论预测和实证净效应之间存在强烈的一致性，并讨论了州和地方如何更好地使用政策组合来实现更低的驱逐率。
{"title":"The Effect of State and Local Housing Policies on County-Level Rent and Evictions in the United States, 2004-2016","authors":"Ashley C Bradford, W. Bradford","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3623318","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3623318","url":null,"abstract":"Housing instability is a constant fact of life for many people in the United States – a fact which is made more urgent and salient during periods of economic disruption such as that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. A relatively new line of research has illuminated the degree to which housing instability, in the form of eviction, is a substantial contributor to health risks, such as “deaths of despair” from alcohol or drug-related accidental poisonings. While eviction is a persistent threat in the U.S., there is almost no research available to guide decision makers about which policies are more or less effective at lowering eviction rates. We provide a theoretical framework of the eviction process highlighting the role that policy might be expected to play in determining local eviction rates. We test this theory using data on evictions for nearly all U.S. counties from 2004-2016 with a panel of state-level landlord-tenant laws and a panel of local housing-specific investments by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. We find strong agreement between the theoretical predictions and empirical net effects for nearly all policies studied, and discuss how states and localities may better use combinations of policies to achieving lower eviction rates.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131358016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the determinants of intra‐U.S. population migration at the metropolitan area level (MSA), with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom. We are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level. Combining a 1993–2014 unbalanced panel of MSA‐to‐MSA migration data from the Internal Revenue Service with a new economic freedom index for U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that a 10% increase in economic freedom of a destination MSA, relative to the economic freedom of an origin MSA, was associated with a 27.4% increase in net migration from the origin MSA to the destination MSA. If we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark, we would expect a 10% increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination MSA by 22 workers per year from each other MSA.
我们研究了美国内部的决定因素在大都市地区层面(MSA)的人口迁移，强调与经济自由一致的政策的存在。我们是第一个在地方一级对移民和经济自由进行多元回归分析的人。结合美国国税局(Internal Revenue Service) 1993-2014年MSA - to - MSA移民数据的不平衡面板和美国大都市地区的新经济自由指数，我们发现，相对于原产MSA的经济自由，目的地MSA的经济自由增加10%，与从原产MSA到目的地MSA的净移民增加27.4%相关。如果我们使用平均净移民流量作为基准，我们预计相对经济自由将增加10%，从而使目的地MSA的净移民每年从其他MSA增加22名工人。
{"title":"Economic Freedom and Migration: A Metro Area-Level Analysis","authors":"Imran Arif, A. Hoffer, Dean Stansel, D. Lacombe","doi":"10.1002/soej.12437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/soej.12437","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the determinants of intra‐U.S. population migration at the metropolitan area level (MSA), with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom. We are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level. Combining a 1993–2014 unbalanced panel of MSA‐to‐MSA migration data from the Internal Revenue Service with a new economic freedom index for U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that a 10% increase in economic freedom of a destination MSA, relative to the economic freedom of an origin MSA, was associated with a 27.4% increase in net migration from the origin MSA to the destination MSA. If we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark, we would expect a 10% increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination MSA by 22 workers per year from each other MSA.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121508726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sanghun Lee, Hongwon Kim, Jiwon Choi, Joohye Kim, Jaehee Choi
Korean Abstract: 중국경제가 고도화되고 중국을 둘러싼 대내외 경제환경이 변화하면서 중국이 추진하는 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략도 변화하고 있으며, 구체적인 정책도 과거 제조업과 외국인직접투자 중심에서 최근에는 서비스, 해외투자, 양자 및 다자 FTA, 양자간 투자협정(BIT) 등으로 다양화되고 있다. 중앙정부의 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략과 정책기조가 변화됨에 따라 중국의 지방정부 역시 중앙정부의 전략을 반영하여 대외 개방 및 경제협력을 추진하고 있으며, 지역별 발전단계, 산업구조, 지역개발정책에 기반한 개방 및 협력정책을 추진하고 있다. 특히 19차 당대회 이후 중앙정부가 대외 개방의 전면적 확대라는 전략적 기조를 나타내면서 각 지방정부 역시 ‘산업단지를 매개로 한 제조업 분야에서의 협력’이라는 전통적인 대외협력에서 벗어나 최근에는 지역경제 일체화, 서비스 및 투자, FTA 활용, 대외 개방 확대를 위한 법·제도의 혁신 등 다양한 분야에서 대외협력을 확대해가고 있다. 중국의 대외경제 전략 변화와 함께 최근 보호무역주의의 강화, 중국경제의 구조적 변화, 한·중 FTA의 발효 및 후속협상 개시 등 한·중 양국을 둘러싼 경제협력 환경이 변화하면서 한국의 입장에서도 새로운 대중 경제협력 전략과 방안을 모색해야 할 필요성이 점차 고조되고 있다. 또한 중국의 중앙정부는 물론 지방정부와의 협력을 확대·심화할 수 있는 협력방안을 새롭게 도출해야 하는시점이다. 이러한 배경하에서 본 연구는 중국 중앙정부와 지방정부의 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략과 세부 정책, 주요 협력사례를 분석하고, 향후 한·중 간 경제협력을 강화하기 위한 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 특히 한·중 양국은 경제협력을 위한 제도적 플랫폼이라고 할 수 있 FTA를 체결·발효 중이며, 한국정부와 중국 지방정부 간 협력을 위한 여건이 마련되어 있으므로 중국의 성공적인 대외협력 사례에 대한 분석과 한·중 경제협력 현황을 토대로 중국 지방정부와의 협력을 확대·강화할 수 있는 협력방안을 모색하였다. 먼저 제2장에서는 시기별로 중국 중앙정부가 추진하였던 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략에 대해 분석하였다. 중국은 2001년 WTO에 가입한 이후 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략과 관련하여 대외개방 확대(10·5 계획), 상호이익의 개방 전략 실시(11·5 규획), 상호이익의 대외개방 수준 제고(12·5 규획), 전면적 개방의 신국면 구축(13·5 규획)으로 점차 개방과 협력의 폭을 빠르게 확대해왔다. 특히 시진핑 정부의 경제발전 전략이 본격화된 13·5 규획(2016~20년)에서는 내국민대우 및 네거티브 리스트 관리제도의 전면적 실시, 서비스업 개방, 높은 수준의 글로벌 FTA 네트워크 구축, 일대일로 추진, 국제사회에서의 책임과 의무 적극 부담 등 과거에 볼 수 없었던 적극적인 대외협력 전략이 제시된 것이 특징이다. 중국의 각 지방정부는 중앙정부에서 제시한 전략이나 정책 기조를 따르되, 지역의 경제적 여건을 반영하여 다양하고 구체적인 대외경제협력 프로젝트나 대외개방 정책을 실시하고 있다. 이를 정책 및 사업 목적에 따라 유형화하면 외국인투자를 촉진하기 위한 전통적인 산업단지나 개발구 형태의 협력부터 산업고도화 및 도시화를 위한 협력, 대외개방 확대를 위한 제도 개혁 및 시범구 조 성, FTA에 기반한 시범사업, 지역경제 일체화를 위한 제도 협력, 일대일로 전략을 구체화하기 위한 협력 등 다양한 대외경제협력이 추진되고 있음을 알 수있다. 제3장에서는 중국의 지방정부가 추진하고 있는 대외경제협력 사업 중에서 성공적이라고 평가받고 있는 세 가지 협력사례에 대해 분석하였다. 첫째, 광둥성과 홍콩 간 협력사례이다. 이는 CEPA에 기반한 제도협력형 경제협력 모델로 볼 수 있다. 과거 홍콩과의 경제협력은 민간 부문이 주도하였으나, CEPA 체결 이후 중앙 및 지방 정부가 중심이 되어 정책과 제도에 기반을 둔 홍콩과의 경제협력 논의가 본격화되었다. 광둥성은 CEPA 선행선시 조치로 인해 홍콩 협력과 관련된 시범사업을 추진하는 데 선도적인 역할을 담당하였다. 과거 광둥성과 홍콩·마카오 간 경제협력 플랫폼으로 설립된 주하이 헝친, 선전 첸하이, 광저우 난사가 2015년 광둥성 자유무역시험구로 통합 추 진되었듯이,2019년 웨강아오 대만구(粤港澳大湾区) 출범 이후 웨강아오 대만구 건설 차원에서 경제·사회 분야를 망라한 광둥성과 홍콩 간의 협력이 논의되고 있으며, CEPA는 경제 분야에서 논의된 사안을 제도화하는 데 여전히 활용되고 있다. 둘째, 랴오닝성과 독일 간 협력사례이다. 중국의 대표적인 공업지대인 랴오닝성은 2000년대 초반 동북진흥정책이 추진되면서 중앙 및 지방 정부 차원에서 다양한 우대정책을 추진하였고, 이러한 영향으로 독일의 BMW 및 전후방 연관기업들이 다수 이 지역으로 진출했다. 이후 중국 중앙정부와 독일정부의 산업협력이 활발히 추진되면서 대표적인 중·독 산업협력의 전초기지로 여겨지던 랴오닝성 선양시에 2015년 독일과의 협력단지로는 최초로 국무원의 비준을 받은 ‘중·독(선양) 첨단장비제조 산업단지’가 조성되었다. 앵커기업인 독일의 BMW와 중국 중앙 및 지방 정부의 정책적 지지하에 해당 산업단지는 매년 두 자릿수 성장률을 유지하고 있으며, 향후 산업협력의 범위를 기존 내연기관 자동차 산업에서 신에너지 자동차, 바이오 산업 등의 신흥산업 분야로 확대할계획이다. 셋째, 충칭과 싱가포르 간의 협력사례이다. 2015년 발족된 충칭-싱가포르 전략적 상호연결 프로젝트(中新战略性互联互通项目)는 중국과 싱가포르 간 대표적인 일대일로 협력사례이자 양국간 최초의 국가급 서비스업 협력 프로젝트이다. 해당 프로젝트는 4대 협력 분야로 금융, 항공 서비스, 정보통신, 교통·물류 서비스를 선정하고 양국 정부간 협의를 통해 다양한 시범사업을 추진해 성과를 내고 있다. 이러한 성과를 바탕으로, 충칭을 포함하여 양국 정부는 협력의 공간적 범위를 충칭시 하나의 지역으로 한정하지 않고 중국 서부지역 전체, 더 나아가 ASEAN까지 연계하는 사업으로 확대해나가고 있는 것이 특징이다. 제4장에서는 한국과 중국 지방정부 간 경제협력
{"title":"중국 지방정부의 대외경제협력 사례와 시사점 (Foreign Economic Cooperation Cases and Implications of China’s Local Governments)","authors":"Sanghun Lee, Hongwon Kim, Jiwon Choi, Joohye Kim, Jaehee Choi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3705768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3705768","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Korean Abstract:</b> 중국경제가 고도화되고 중국을 둘러싼 대내외 경제환경이 변화하면서 중국이 추진하는 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략도 변화하고 있으며, 구체적인 정책도 과거 제조업과 외국인직접투자 중심에서 최근에는 서비스, 해외투자, 양자 및 다자 FTA, 양자간 투자협정(BIT) 등으로 다양화되고 있다. 중앙정부의 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략과 정책기조가 변화됨에 따라 중국의 지방정부 역시 중앙정부의 전략을 반영하여 대외 개방 및 경제협력을 추진하고 있으며, 지역별 발전단계, 산업구조, 지역개발정책에 기반한 개방 및 협력정책을 추진하고 있다. 특히 19차 당대회 이후 중앙정부가 대외 개방의 전면적 확대라는 전략적 기조를 나타내면서 각 지방정부 역시 ‘산업단지를 매개로 한 제조업 분야에서의 협력’이라는 전통적인 대외협력에서 벗어나 최근에는 지역경제 일체화, 서비스 및 투자, FTA 활용, 대외 개방 확대를 위한 법·제도의 혁신 등 다양한 분야에서 대외협력을 확대해가고 있다. 중국의 대외경제 전략 변화와 함께 최근 보호무역주의의 강화, 중국경제의 구조적 변화, 한·중 FTA의 발효 및 후속협상 개시 등 한·중 양국을 둘러싼 경제협력 환경이 변화하면서 한국의 입장에서도 새로운 대중 경제협력 전략과 방안을 모색해야 할 필요성이 점차 고조되고 있다. 또한 중국의 중앙정부는 물론 지방정부와의 협력을 확대·심화할 수 있는 협력방안을 새롭게 도출해야 하는시점이다. 이러한 배경하에서 본 연구는 중국 중앙정부와 지방정부의 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략과 세부 정책, 주요 협력사례를 분석하고, 향후 한·중 간 경제협력을 강화하기 위한 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 특히 한·중 양국은 경제협력을 위한 제도적 플랫폼이라고 할 수 있 FTA를 체결·발효 중이며, 한국정부와 중국 지방정부 간 협력을 위한 여건이 마련되어 있으므로 중국의 성공적인 대외협력 사례에 대한 분석과 한·중 경제협력 현황을 토대로 중국 지방정부와의 협력을 확대·강화할 수 있는 협력방안을 모색하였다. 먼저 제2장에서는 시기별로 중국 중앙정부가 추진하였던 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략에 대해 분석하였다. 중국은 2001년 WTO에 가입한 이후 대외 개방 및 경제협력 전략과 관련하여 대외개방 확대(10·5 계획), 상호이익의 개방 전략 실시(11·5 규획), 상호이익의 대외개방 수준 제고(12·5 규획), 전면적 개방의 신국면 구축(13·5 규획)으로 점차 개방과 협력의 폭을 빠르게 확대해왔다. 특히 시진핑 정부의 경제발전 전략이 본격화된 13·5 규획(2016~20년)에서는 내국민대우 및 네거티브 리스트 관리제도의 전면적 실시, 서비스업 개방, 높은 수준의 글로벌 FTA 네트워크 구축, 일대일로 추진, 국제사회에서의 책임과 의무 적극 부담 등 과거에 볼 수 없었던 적극적인 대외협력 전략이 제시된 것이 특징이다. 중국의 각 지방정부는 중앙정부에서 제시한 전략이나 정책 기조를 따르되, 지역의 경제적 여건을 반영하여 다양하고 구체적인 대외경제협력 프로젝트나 대외개방 정책을 실시하고 있다. 이를 정책 및 사업 목적에 따라 유형화하면 외국인투자를 촉진하기 위한 전통적인 산업단지나 개발구 형태의 협력부터 산업고도화 및 도시화를 위한 협력, 대외개방 확대를 위한 제도 개혁 및 시범구 조 성, FTA에 기반한 시범사업, 지역경제 일체화를 위한 제도 협력, 일대일로 전략을 구체화하기 위한 협력 등 다양한 대외경제협력이 추진되고 있음을 알 수있다. 제3장에서는 중국의 지방정부가 추진하고 있는 대외경제협력 사업 중에서 성공적이라고 평가받고 있는 세 가지 협력사례에 대해 분석하였다. 첫째, 광둥성과 홍콩 간 협력사례이다. 이는 CEPA에 기반한 제도협력형 경제협력 모델로 볼 수 있다. 과거 홍콩과의 경제협력은 민간 부문이 주도하였으나, CEPA 체결 이후 중앙 및 지방 정부가 중심이 되어 정책과 제도에 기반을 둔 홍콩과의 경제협력 논의가 본격화되었다. 광둥성은 CEPA 선행선시 조치로 인해 홍콩 협력과 관련된 시범사업을 추진하는 데 선도적인 역할을 담당하였다. 과거 광둥성과 홍콩·마카오 간 경제협력 플랫폼으로 설립된 주하이 헝친, 선전 첸하이, 광저우 난사가 2015년 광둥성 자유무역시험구로 통합 추 진되었듯이,2019년 웨강아오 대만구(粤港澳大湾区) 출범 이후 웨강아오 대만구 건설 차원에서 경제·사회 분야를 망라한 광둥성과 홍콩 간의 협력이 논의되고 있으며, CEPA는 경제 분야에서 논의된 사안을 제도화하는 데 여전히 활용되고 있다. 둘째, 랴오닝성과 독일 간 협력사례이다. 중국의 대표적인 공업지대인 랴오닝성은 2000년대 초반 동북진흥정책이 추진되면서 중앙 및 지방 정부 차원에서 다양한 우대정책을 추진하였고, 이러한 영향으로 독일의 BMW 및 전후방 연관기업들이 다수 이 지역으로 진출했다. 이후 중국 중앙정부와 독일정부의 산업협력이 활발히 추진되면서 대표적인 중·독 산업협력의 전초기지로 여겨지던 랴오닝성 선양시에 2015년 독일과의 협력단지로는 최초로 국무원의 비준을 받은 ‘중·독(선양) 첨단장비제조 산업단지’가 조성되었다. 앵커기업인 독일의 BMW와 중국 중앙 및 지방 정부의 정책적 지지하에 해당 산업단지는 매년 두 자릿수 성장률을 유지하고 있으며, 향후 산업협력의 범위를 기존 내연기관 자동차 산업에서 신에너지 자동차, 바이오 산업 등의 신흥산업 분야로 확대할계획이다. 셋째, 충칭과 싱가포르 간의 협력사례이다. 2015년 발족된 충칭-싱가포르 전략적 상호연결 프로젝트(中新战略性互联互通项目)는 중국과 싱가포르 간 대표적인 일대일로 협력사례이자 양국간 최초의 국가급 서비스업 협력 프로젝트이다. 해당 프로젝트는 4대 협력 분야로 금융, 항공 서비스, 정보통신, 교통·물류 서비스를 선정하고 양국 정부간 협의를 통해 다양한 시범사업을 추진해 성과를 내고 있다. 이러한 성과를 바탕으로, 충칭을 포함하여 양국 정부는 협력의 공간적 범위를 충칭시 하나의 지역으로 한정하지 않고 중국 서부지역 전체, 더 나아가 ASEAN까지 연계하는 사업으로 확대해나가고 있는 것이 특징이다. 제4장에서는 한국과 중국 지방정부 간 경제협력","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124311820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva implemented a random audits program aimed at curbing municipal corruption in 2003. Recent literature found evidence that these audits successfully reduced corruption (Avis, Ferraz, and Finan 2018) and improved firm performance (Colonnelli and Prem 2017). These latter findings are obtained using survey data concerning formal activity alone. However, many formal firms operate partially “off the books”. Further, these audits likely affect citizen tolerance for corruption in general potentially affecting other facets of governance including informality enforcement. This has its own consequence on economic growth. Thus, an analysis including all forms of economic activity is warranted. We utilize difference-in-difference and matching techniques in conjunction with broad measures of total economic activity to test if audited municipalities improved relative to their non-audited counterparts. We find evidence of a slight decline in subsequent economic activity; we find no evidence of any benefit. A preliminary analysis suggests that this decline may stem from increased informality enforcement.
2003年，路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦政府实施了一项旨在遏制市政腐败的随机审计计划。最近的文献发现，有证据表明这些审计成功地减少了腐败(Avis, Ferraz, and Finan, 2018)并改善了公司绩效(Colonnelli and Prem, 2017)。后一项发现是仅使用有关正式活动的调查数据得出的。然而，许多正规公司部分地“不入账”。此外，这些审计可能会影响公民对腐败的容忍度，进而影响治理的其他方面，包括非正式执法。这对经济增长有其自身的影响。因此，有必要对所有形式的经济活动进行分析。我们利用差中之差和匹配技术与总体经济活动的广泛措施相结合，以测试经审计的市政当局是否相对于未经审计的同行有所改善。我们发现了随后经济活动略有下降的证据;我们没有发现任何有益的证据。初步分析表明，这种下降可能源于非正式执法的增加。
{"title":"Political Corruption and Development in Brazil: Do Random Audits of Corruption Increase Economic Activity?","authors":"Jamie Bologna Pavlik, Kaitlyn R. Harger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3277998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3277998","url":null,"abstract":"The government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva implemented a random audits program aimed at curbing municipal corruption in 2003. Recent literature found evidence that these audits successfully reduced corruption (Avis, Ferraz, and Finan 2018) and improved firm performance (Colonnelli and Prem 2017). These latter findings are obtained using survey data concerning formal activity alone. However, many formal firms operate partially “off the books”. Further, these audits likely affect citizen tolerance for corruption in general potentially affecting other facets of governance including informality enforcement. This has its own consequence on economic growth. Thus, an analysis including all forms of economic activity is warranted. We utilize difference-in-difference and matching techniques in conjunction with broad measures of total economic activity to test if audited municipalities improved relative to their non-audited counterparts. We find evidence of a slight decline in subsequent economic activity; we find no evidence of any benefit. A preliminary analysis suggests that this decline may stem from increased informality enforcement.","PeriodicalId":132360,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Political Economy: National","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124864269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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