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Heterogeneous Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19: More Hidden Mechanisms 股市对COVID-19的异质反应:更多隐藏机制
Pub Date : 2020-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3697622
Zhifeng Liu, Tingting Zhang, Guoqing Zhang
This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on stock prices in China and its hidden mechanisms from multi perspectives. First, we confirm the recent conclusion that the spread of the epidemic has a significant negative impact on stock market returns. However, this effect is heterogeneous for different industries. In particular, stocks not only in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry but also in its upstream industry, the chemical industry, even benefit from the epidemic. Second, we construct a fear sentiment index by using data from searching volume of COVID-19 related words and find that the fear sentiment can directly cause the stock price to fall. Moreover, the panic will exacerbate the negative impact of the epidemic on stock returns. Third, and most importantly, we demonstrate the underlying mechanisms from four firm characteristics. The results show that companies with high asset intensity, low labor intensity, high inventory-to-revenues ratio, and small market value are more negatively affected. We argue that the labor employment in state-owned enterprises is less flexible, so for labor-intensive state-owned firms, their stock performance worsens because of higher idle labor costs. Our evidence also strongly supports this hypothesis. Finally, we create a brand new index based on the WIOD input-output database to measure the relative position of an industry in the supply chain. Our findings show that companies located downstream are more vulnerable to the COVID-19 outbreak.
本文从多个角度研究了新冠肺炎疫情对中国股价的异质性影响及其隐藏机制。首先,我们证实了最近的结论,即疫情的蔓延对股市收益产生了重大的负面影响。然而,这种影响在不同的行业是不同的。特别是,不仅医药制造行业的股票,其上游行业——化工行业的股票甚至受益于疫情。其次,利用COVID-19相关词汇搜索量数据构建恐惧情绪指数,发现恐惧情绪可以直接导致股价下跌。此外,恐慌情绪会加剧疫情对股票收益的负面影响。第三,也是最重要的一点,我们从四个企业特征论证了潜在的机制。结果表明,资产强度高、劳动强度低、库存收入比高、市值小的企业受到的负面影响更大。我们认为,国有企业的劳动力就业灵活性较差,因此对于劳动密集型国有企业来说,由于闲置劳动力成本较高,其股票表现恶化。我们的证据也有力地支持这一假设。最后,我们基于WIOD投入产出数据库创建了一个全新的指数来衡量一个行业在供应链中的相对位置。我们的研究结果表明,位于下游的公司更容易受到COVID-19疫情的影响。
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引用次数: 4
Road to Free labour Market: The Impact of Abolition of Job Assignment Reform in China 自由劳动力市场之路:中国劳动分配改革取消的影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3680123
Yucheng Wang
This paper examines how labour market outcomes are affected by college graduates’ employment liberalization in China, which refers to the abolition of the job assignment system. Exploiting the cohort-specific exposure to the reform, the estimation from census and household survey data suggest that the reform decreases the employment rate for about 3.6 percentage points and increases wages of employed workers by about 21.4 percent. Building on the evidence, I develop and calibrates an equilibrium search and matching model with two sectors and human capital heterogeneity. Welfare analysis indicates that employment liberation is beneficial to workers with higher human capital by allocating them to more productive vacancies, which leads to an increase in equilibrium wages and total output. The results shed light on the role of labour market liberalization on the economic transition of China.
本文考察了中国大学毕业生就业自由化对劳动力市场结果的影响,即就业分配制度的废除。从人口普查和住户调查数据中得出的估计表明,改革使就业率下降了约3.6个百分点,使就业者的工资提高了约21.4%。在证据的基础上,我开发和校准了一个均衡搜索和匹配模型与两个部门和人力资本异质性。福利分析表明,就业解放有利于人力资本较高的工人,将他们分配到生产率更高的职位,从而导致均衡工资和总产出的增加。研究结果揭示了劳动力市场自由化在中国经济转型中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Why Wealth Inequality Differs Between Post-Socialist Countries? 为什么后社会主义国家之间的财富不平等不同?
Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3631191
M. Brzeziński, Katarzyna Sałach
We provide the first attempt to understand how differences in households’ socio-demographic and economic characteristics account for disparities in wealth inequality between five post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. We use 2013/2014 data from the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and the reweighted Oaxaca-Blinder-like decompositions based on recentered influence function (RIF) regressions. Our results show that the differences in homeownership rates account for up to 42% of the difference in wealth inequality measured with the Gini index and for as much as 63-109% in case of the P50/P25 percentile ratio. Differences in homeownership rates are related to alternative designs of housing tax policies but could be also driven by other factors. We correct for the problem of the ‘missing rich’ in household surveys by calibrating the HFCS survey weights to top wealth shares adjusted using wealth data from national rich lists. Empirically, the correction procedure strengthens the importance of homeownership rates in accounting for cross-country wealth inequality differences, which suggests that our results are not sensitive to the significant underestimation of top wealth observations in the HFCS.
我们首次尝试理解家庭、社会人口和经济特征的差异如何解释中欧和东欧五个后社会主义国家之间财富不平等的差异。我们使用2013/2014年第二波家庭金融和消费调查(HFCS)的数据和基于重中心影响函数(RIF)回归的重新加权的瓦哈卡-布林德式分解。我们的研究结果表明,住房拥有率的差异占基尼指数衡量的财富不平等差异的42%,在P50/P25百分比比率的情况下,这一差异可达63-109%。住房拥有率的差异与住房税政策的不同设计有关,但也可能受到其他因素的驱动。我们通过校准HFCS调查权重到使用国家富豪榜财富数据调整的最高财富份额,来纠正家庭调查中“缺失的富人”问题。从经验上看,修正程序加强了住房自有率在考虑跨国财富不平等差异方面的重要性,这表明我们的结果对HFCS中对最高财富观察值的显著低估并不敏感。
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引用次数: 4
Internal Migration and Youth Entrepreneurship in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 刚果民主共和国的国内移民和青年创业
Pub Date : 2020-06-09 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12669
Alain Kikandi Kiuma, A. Araar, C. Kaghoma
This paper analyzes youth internal migration in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on entrepreneurship startup in a fresh post‐conflict context. Building on a national representative survey conducted in 2005, a recursive bivariate probit specification is used to jointly estimate the decision models of both migration and entrepreneurship. To evaluate the robustness of results, the propensity score matching method is used to test the concordance of the results after eliminating the redundant impact of unobserved factors. The two main conclusions are that youth migration increases the probability of being an entrepreneur, but in the informal sector. In addition, like secondary and post‐secondary education, the duration of stay after migrating is an important factor to being an entrepreneur in the formal sector. These conclusions are expected to enlighten policy‐makers as to the importance of promoting secondary and post‐secondary education as well as inclusive growth investments that may absorb more youth labor in formal sectors. This is the first exercise in the case of the DRC and since it focuses on youth, the paper makes a unique contribution to the literature related to the link between migration and entrepreneurship in a post‐war context.
本文分析了刚果民主共和国(DRC)的青年内部迁移及其在新的后冲突背景下对创业创业的影响。在2005年进行的一项全国代表性调查的基础上,采用递归双变量probit规范对移民和创业的决策模型进行了联合估计。为了评价结果的稳健性,采用倾向评分匹配法,在剔除未观测因素的冗余影响后检验结果的一致性。两个主要结论是,青年移民增加了成为企业家的可能性,但在非正规部门。此外,与中学和中学后教育一样,移民后的停留时间是在正规部门创业的重要因素。这些结论有望启发政策制定者,使他们认识到促进中等和中等后教育以及包容性增长投资的重要性,这些投资可能会在正规部门吸收更多的青年劳动力。这是在刚果民主共和国的情况下的第一次练习,由于它侧重于青年,本文对战后背景下移民与创业之间联系的文献做出了独特的贡献。
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引用次数: 6
How Do Individual Politicians Affect Privatization? Evidence from China 政治家个人如何影响私有化?来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2020-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3251361
Hong Ru, Kunru Zou
This paper investigates how politicians’ patronage connections affect privatizations in China. The connections to top political leaders (i.e., Central Committee of the Communist Party of China) make local politicians engage more in rent-seeking by selling state-owned enterprises (SOEs) at substantial discounts. These connected local politicians are also more protected in anti-corruption investigations, thus extracting more rents by selling SOE assets at substantial discounts. Consequently, the privatizations conducted by the local politicians with patronage connections achieve significantly lower gains in efficiency and performance. To identify the role of patronage connection in privatization, we use the mandatory retirement age cut-offs of Central Committee members in the regression discontinuity design. We find drops in price discounts of privatization deals and jumps in efficiency for privatized SOEs when local politicians lose connections to Central Committee members around the retirement age cut-offs.
本文研究了政治人物的庇护关系对中国私有化的影响。与最高政治领导人(即中国共产党中央委员会)的关系使地方政客通过以大幅折扣出售国有企业(SOEs)来更多地参与寻租。这些有关系的地方政客在反腐败调查中也得到了更多保护,从而通过大幅折扣出售国有企业资产来赚取更多租金。因此,由有赞助关系的地方政客进行的私有化在效率和绩效方面的收益明显较低。为了确定任免关系在私有化中的作用,我们在回归不连续设计中使用了中央委员的法定退休年龄。我们发现,当地方政客在退休年龄截止前后与中央委员会成员失去联系时,私有化交易的价格折扣会下降,私有化国有企业的效率会上升。
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引用次数: 3
Innovative Activity and Some Features of Taxation 创新活动与税收的一些特征
Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202016410027
L. Pushkareva
Innovation activity at an industrial enterprise is a set of conditions affecting the relationship of the interaction of the business structure with other business entities and the state. The environment of innovative activity at the enterprise is variable, heterogeneous, dependent on many positive or negative factors acting on it. The ratio of these factors makes the environment either favorable, i.e. conducive to the implementation of entrepreneurial innovative ideas or adverse (risky) for the normal development of innovation. In the coming years, the structure of sources of financing technological innovation in industry will not change significantly, therefore it is important to create such conditions for organizations so that they can finance innovation in the future. In this significant role belongs to taxes. There are a number of articles in the Tax Code, a slight change of which will create a more favorable climate for innovation. In some cases, it is important for a taxpayer to receive a deferral or installment plan for a tax payment. Investment tax credit also represents a deferred payment; it can be granted to organizations that perform R&D; either technical re-equipment of own production; or carry out innovative or innovative activities, including creating new or improving applied technologies, etc.
工业企业的创新活动是影响企业结构与其他企业实体和国家相互作用关系的一组条件。企业创新活动的环境是多变的、异质的,依赖于许多积极或消极的因素。这些因素的比例决定了环境要么有利于创业创新理念的实施,要么不利于创新的正常发展。在未来几年,行业技术创新融资来源的结构不会发生显著变化,因此为组织创造这样的条件,使其能够在未来为创新融资是很重要的。在这个重要的角色属于税收。税法中有许多条款,稍加修改将为创新创造更有利的环境。在某些情况下,纳税人收到延期或分期付款的纳税计划是很重要的。投资税收抵免也代表延期付款;它可以授予从事研发的组织;自行生产的技术改造;或开展创新或创新活动,包括创造新的或改进应用技术等。
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引用次数: 11
A Statistical Mechanics Sampling of Financial Networks Under Bilateral Netting Constraints 双边网络约束下金融网络的统计力学抽样
Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3532304
S. Giansante, Douglas Asthon, T. Rogers
We propose a statistical mechanics approach to the problem of financial network reconstruction and systemic risk when participants benefit from bilateral netting agreements. We apply physical reasoning to directly estimate individual financial liabilities from data on both total gross and net positions of total liabilities and total assets. We map this constrained network reconstruction problem to an energy-minimization one, to which we apply a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithmic to sample from this restricted space. These samples are then used to evaluate the impact of bilateral netting strategies to individual defaults and contagion. As an application, we employ this method to derivative networks and derive individual probabilities of default of banks. The comparison against popular alternative methods underlines the importance of restricting sample solutions to those compatible with the netting strategies of banks. We also provide an R package implementing our methodology.
我们提出了一个统计力学的方法来解决金融网络重建和系统风险的问题,当参与者受益于双边净额协议。我们运用物理推理从总负债和总资产的总毛额和净头寸数据直接估计个人金融负债。我们将这个受限网络重构问题映射为能量最小化问题,并应用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗算法从这个受限空间中采样。然后使用这些样本来评估双边净额策略对个人违约和传染的影响。作为一种应用,我们将该方法应用于衍生网络,并推导出银行的个别违约概率。与流行的替代方法的比较强调了将样本解决方案限制为与银行的净额计算策略兼容的解决方案的重要性。我们还提供了一个R包来实现我们的方法。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Foreignness in the Relationship between Disruptive Innovation and MNE Performance 外来性在破坏性创新与跨国公司绩效关系中的作用
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.37625/abr.23.1.18-34
Chuandi Jiang, Xinglu Zhao
The innovation-performance literature has failed to make a distinction between the effects of incremental and disruptive innovation on multinational enterprise (MNE) performance. The understanding of the role of foreignness has overemphasized the negative side. From the institutional anomie theory perspective, this study investigates how foreignness, which consists of national culture, industrial competition, and innovative national capacity, affects the relationship between disruptive innovation and MNE performance. We illustrate the distinctiveness between incremental and disruptive innovation and then build a conceptual model to show the moderating role of foreignness on the innovation-performance link. The model suggests that foreignness provides contextual conditions under which the relationship between disruptive innovation and MNE performance is either strengthened or impeded. Also, firm-level cultural intelligence (CQ) can help MNEs to overcome the negative effects of foreignness, as well as enhance its positive effects. Propositions are discussed for further research.
有关创新绩效的文献未能区分渐进式创新和破坏性创新对跨国企业绩效的影响。对外国人作用的认识过分强调了其消极的一面。本文从制度失范理论的视角,考察了由民族文化、产业竞争和国家创新能力构成的外部性如何影响颠覆性创新与跨国公司绩效的关系。本文首先分析了渐进式创新和破坏性创新之间的差异,然后构建了一个概念模型来证明外来性对创新绩效的调节作用。该模型表明,外来性为颠覆性创新与跨国公司绩效之间的关系要么得到加强,要么受到阻碍提供了语境条件。此外,企业文化智力(CQ)可以帮助跨国公司克服外国的负面影响,并增强其积极作用。讨论了进一步研究的建议。
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引用次数: 1
Market Power, Productivity and Distribution of Wages: Theory and Evidence With Micro Data 市场力量、生产率与工资分配:基于微观数据的理论与证据
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3609821
Oleksandr Shepotylo, V. Vakhitov
The declining labor share in national income and rising inequality over the last four decades raise questions about causes of these trends. In order to explain these trends, we develop a theoretical model that links intra-industry distribution of wages to variation in market power of firms. The model predicts that wages depend crucially on the demand side characteristics – they decline with market power if and only if demand elasticity is increasing with firm’s output. Trade liberalization leads to expansion of more productive firms, which also increases their bargaining power, resulting in lower share of wage bill in total revenue. The model predictions are tested on a sample of Ukrainian manufacturing firms in 2001– 2007. We document that an increase in firm’s size increases its bargaining power relative to workers. We measure firm level markups, and show that they increase with firm’s output and market size. We find that wage rises with firm’s productivity, but fall with its market power. The results are robust to various model specifications estimated at the firm and industry levels.
过去四十年来,劳动收入在国民收入中所占份额的下降和不平等的加剧引发了对这些趋势的原因的质疑。为了解释这些趋势,我们建立了一个理论模型,将行业内工资分配与企业市场力量的变化联系起来。该模型预测,工资在很大程度上取决于需求侧特征——当且仅当需求弹性随企业产出增加而增加时,工资随市场支配力下降。贸易自由化导致生产率更高的企业扩张,这也增加了它们的议价能力,导致工资账单在总收入中的份额降低。该模型的预测在2001 - 2007年的乌克兰制造企业样本上进行了测试。我们证明,公司规模的增加增加了它相对于工人的议价能力。我们测量了企业层面的加价,并表明加价随企业产量和市场规模的增加而增加。我们发现,工资随企业生产率的提高而上升,但随其市场支配力的下降而下降。结果是鲁棒的各种模型规格估计在公司和行业水平。
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引用次数: 3
A General Equilibrium Approach to Taxonomy of Institutional Proxies for Innovation Outcomes 创新成果制度代理分类的一般均衡方法
Pub Date : 2020-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3581880
Oghenovo A. Obrimah
This study develops a new formal theoretical rubric for ranking of proxies for institutional factors that, conceptually, have taxonomy of either of facilitators of, or constraints on economic development. Illustrative implementations of the formal theoretical rubric reveal that spending on each of elementary or secondary education has taxonomy, not of social capital, but of `Productive Capability'. Conditional on optimal spending on primary and secondary education, stock markets are beneficial for welfare of individuals, and are shown to have taxonomy, not of investment capability, but of `Innovation Capability'. An hitherto unexplored factor shown to rank high as facilitator of economic development is `Policy Capability' that incentivizes export orientation within a domestic economy. Alongside spending on education, and stock market size, this policy capability is shown to be more important for realization of economic development than the stock of physical capital within an economy. All rank preferences are shown to satisfy the Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference (SARP). Empirical tests reveal importance of availability and application of formal theoretical rubrics to characterization and interpretation of effects of institutional factors that, conceptually, have taxonomy of facilitators of, or constraints on economic development.
本研究开发了一种新的正式的理论准则,用于对制度因素的代理进行排序,这些制度因素在概念上具有促进经济发展或制约经济发展的分类学。正式理论标题的说明性实施表明,中小学教育的每一项支出都有分类,不是社会资本,而是“生产能力”。在中小学教育支出最优的条件下,股票市场有利于个人的福利,并被证明具有分类,不是投资能力,而是“创新能力”。迄今为止尚未开发的一个被证明是经济发展促进者的因素是“政策能力”,它在国内经济中激励出口导向。除了教育支出和股票市场规模外,这种政策能力对实现经济发展的作用比经济中实物资本的存量更为重要。所有的等级偏好都满足强显示偏好公理(SARP)。经验检验表明,正式理论准则的可得性和应用对于确定和解释体制因素的影响具有重要意义,这些体制因素在概念上对经济发展的促进因素或制约因素具有分类学意义。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Institutions & Transition Economics: Microeconomic Issues eJournal
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