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Generative AI in retail platform operations: Considering supplier effort exertion and consumer skepticism 零售平台运营中的生成式人工智能:考虑供应商努力消耗和消费者怀疑
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109870
Qiang Wang , Xinran Dai , Mingjun Li
In recent years, a growing number of retail platforms have integrated generative artificial intelligence (GAI) technology into their operations, as exemplified by Amazon’s GAI-powered “Rufus” shopping assistant and JD.com’s “JD Jingyan” intelligent recommendation system. However, alongside the proliferation of AI applications, some consumers have grown skeptical about the reliability of GAI. Against this backdrop, it remains unclear whether retail platforms should adopt GAI and what impacts such adoption may exert on heterogeneous suppliers, consumer surplus, and social welfare. To investigate these issues, this paper develops theoretical stylized models and derives some key managerial implications. The findings indicate that the retail platform will inevitably adopt GAI, as any suppliers who make efforts to effectively utilize GAI will benefit the platform. Moreover, when the proportion of GAI-skeptical consumers is relatively small or the effort cost is sufficiently low, one supplier’s investment in GAI utilization compels the rival to follow suit, leading to mutual effort exertion as the Nash equilibrium. Conversely, one supplier’s effort will induce its competitor to enter the market without exerting effort, resulting in a Nash equilibrium where only one supplier invests in GAI utilization. Besides, a brand supplier is more likely to exert effort in leveraging GAI and exerts more efforts than an ordinary supplier, particularly when market competition intensifies. While the ordinary supplier may only outperform the brand supplier in effort when market competition is relatively subdued. Finally, we demonstrate that GAI adoption ultimately enhances both consumer surplus and social welfare.
近年来,越来越多的零售平台将生成式人工智能(GAI)技术整合到他们的运营中,例如亚马逊的“鲁弗斯”购物助手和京东的“京东景岩”智能推荐系统。然而,随着人工智能应用的激增,一些消费者对人工智能的可靠性产生了怀疑。在这种背景下,零售平台是否应该采用GAI,以及这种采用可能对异质供应商、消费者剩余和社会福利产生什么影响,仍不清楚。为了研究这些问题,本文建立了理论化的模型,并得出了一些关键的管理启示。研究结果表明,零售平台将不可避免地采用GAI,因为任何努力有效利用GAI的供应商都将使平台受益。此外,当对GAI持怀疑态度的消费者比例相对较小或努力成本足够低时,供应商在GAI利用上的投入会迫使竞争对手效仿,从而产生相互努力的纳什均衡。相反,一个供应商的努力将诱导其竞争对手进入市场,而无需付出努力,从而产生纳什均衡,其中只有一个供应商投资于GAI利用。此外,品牌供应商在利用GAI方面比普通供应商更有可能付出努力,而且比普通供应商付出更多的努力,尤其是在市场竞争加剧时。而普通供应商只有在市场竞争相对缓和的情况下,才能在努力上胜过品牌供应商。最后,我们证明了GAI的采用最终提高了消费者剩余和社会福利。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of subcontracting on service systems with time-sensitive strategic customers 分包对具有时间敏感型战略客户的服务系统的影响
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2026.109920
Myron Benioudakis
We consider a service system consisting of a provider who offers a service in a make-to-order fashion to a market of potential customers, and a subcontractor who can be recruited to speed up the service process. The provider operates a Markovian queue at a standard service rate and charges customers a fixed fee upon joining. At each busy cycle, the provider offers a salary to a subcontractor in exchange for increasing the service rate. The subcontractor decides whether to accept the offer while incurring a labor cost per unit of time. Arriving customers, who are strategic and time-sensitive, cannot observe the system’s queue length or the implemented service policy. They have a service value upon completion and incur a waiting cost per unit of time. Based on their utility maximization, they make individual join-or-balk decisions, considering both the behavior of other customers and the subcontractor’s strategic involvement.
We derive the equilibrium demand of customers as a response to the subcontractor’s commitment rate using a two-dimensional continuous-time Markov Chain. We define the collaboration regions based on salary thresholds, highlighting the reservation salaries that ensure collaboration between the two parties. Finally, using a Stackelberg game framework, we show that the subcontractor does not always opt for full commitment. When the provider relies less on subcontractor assistance, the subcontractor strategically prefers partial commitment, balancing the trade-off between idle periods and longer busy periods.
我们考虑一个服务系统,它由一个以订制方式向潜在客户市场提供服务的供应商和一个可以被招募来加快服务过程的分包商组成。提供商以标准费率运行马尔可夫队列,并在客户加入时收取固定费用。在每个繁忙周期,提供商向分包商提供工资,以换取提高服务率。分包商决定是否接受报价,同时产生单位时间的人工成本。到达的客户具有策略性和时间敏感性,他们无法观察到系统的队列长度或实现的服务策略。它们在完成时具有服务价值,并产生单位时间的等待成本。基于他们的效用最大化,他们在考虑其他客户的行为和分包商的战略参与的情况下,做出个人的加入或阻止决策。利用二维连续时间马尔可夫链导出了客户的均衡需求对分包商承诺率的响应。我们根据工资阈值定义协作区域,突出显示保证双方协作的保留工资。最后,使用Stackelberg博弈框架,我们表明分包商并不总是选择完全承诺。当供应商较少依赖分包商的帮助时,分包商在策略上倾向于部分承诺,以平衡空闲期和较长繁忙期之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Mediation effects in blockchain technology adoption for social sustainability: Pre- and post-adoption analysis of existing and future socially sustainable supply chains 区块链技术采用对社会可持续性的中介效应:现有和未来社会可持续供应链的采用前后分析
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109868
Ali Esfahbodi, Hakeem Omolade Sunmola
While blockchain technology offers promising potential for enhancing social sustainability in supply chains, its adoption and effective utilisation remain underexplored. This study, grounded in the dynamic capabilities view, investigates the role of social orientation and the cognitive mechanism of Perceived Usefulness in driving blockchain technology adoption, and its subsequent impact on future social practices and social performance across both pre- and post-adoption phases. Using a quantitative survey of UK manufacturing organisations, this study examines the mediating effects of existing social practices in the pre-adoption phase and future social practices in the post-adoption phase. Findings reveal that while social orientation positively influences blockchain adoption, this effect is partially mediated by existing social practices. Furthermore, blockchain implementation acts as a catalyst for the adoption of future social practices, which in turn mediates its impact on social performance. This study contributes to the operations and supply chain management body of literature by: 1) providing empirical evidence for the mediating role of social practices in the relationship between social orientation, blockchain adoption, and social performance; 2) highlighting the dynamic interplay between existing and future social practices in shaping the adoption and impact of blockchain technology, adopting a multi-stage approach that considers both pre- and post-adoption phases; and 3) providing managers with the strategic tool Blockchain Technology for Social Sustainability (BTSS) for leveraging blockchain for social sustainability.
虽然区块链技术为提高供应链中的社会可持续性提供了有希望的潜力,但其采用和有效利用仍未得到充分探索。本研究基于动态能力的观点,探讨了社会取向和感知有用性的认知机制在推动区块链技术采用中的作用,以及其在采用前和采用后两个阶段对未来社会实践和社会绩效的影响。通过对英国制造业组织的定量调查,本研究考察了采用前阶段的现有社会实践和采用后阶段的未来社会实践的中介效应。研究发现,虽然社会取向对区块链的采用有积极影响,但这种影响在一定程度上受现有社会实践的中介作用。此外,区块链的实施是采用未来社会实践的催化剂,这反过来又调解其对社会绩效的影响。本研究对运营与供应链管理文献主体的贡献在于:1)为社会实践在社会取向、区块链采用与社会绩效之间的中介作用提供了实证证据;2)强调现有和未来社会实践在影响区块链技术的采用和影响方面的动态相互作用,采用考虑采用前和采用后阶段的多阶段方法;3)为管理者提供区块链社会可持续发展技术(BTSS)战略工具,以利用区块链实现社会可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Time-dependent integrated production and outbound distribution scheduling with multiple cold chain products considering carbon emissions 考虑碳排放的多冷链产品时变集成生产和出库配送调度
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109836
Feng Wang, Hongguang Bo
Sustainable urban development urgently requires the implementation of advanced low-carbon transportation strategies, with emissions from cold chain product transportation being particularly significant. Cold chain products are essential to modern society, their perishable nature greatly increases the complexity of production and distribution planning. Enterprises typically organize production around order-defined delivery dates to ensure product freshness and customer satisfaction, distributing products immediately to minimize value loss and energy waste. These challenges are further amplified under time-varying operational conditions. To address this issue, we propose a three-objective mathematical optimisation model for low-carbon operations that maximize product freshness and customer satisfaction while minimizing costs. This model integrates various factors such as employee time-varying processing efficiency during the production stage, the time-varying vehicle speed during the distribution stage, and the influence of dynamic speed and load on carbon emissions. Given the NP-hard nature of the proposed model, a hybrid algorithm based on variable neighbourhood search (VNS) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-III (NSGA-III) is designed to solve it. Numerical experiments and analyses demonstrate that the proposed model and algorithm substantially improve scheduling efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. The research results not only deepen and extend the theory of integrated production and outbound distribution scheduling under time-varying condition but also provide a scientific and reasonable approach for guiding cold chain enterprises toward net-zero emissions and promoting the sustainable development of production–delivery systems.
城市可持续发展迫切需要实施先进的低碳交通战略,其中冷链产品运输的排放尤为显著。冷链产品是现代社会必不可少的,其易腐性大大增加了生产和分配计划的复杂性。企业通常在订单规定的交货日期前后组织生产,以确保产品的新鲜度和客户满意度,并立即分发产品,以最大限度地减少价值损失和能源浪费。在时变的操作条件下,这些挑战进一步放大。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一个低碳运营的三目标数学优化模型,以最大限度地提高产品的新鲜度和客户满意度,同时最大限度地降低成本。该模型综合了生产阶段员工时变的加工效率、配送阶段时变的车速、动态车速和负荷对碳排放的影响等多种因素。考虑到所提出模型的NP-hard特性,设计了一种基于可变邻域搜索(VNS)和非支配排序遗传算法- iii (NSGA-III)的混合算法来求解该模型。数值实验和分析表明,该模型和算法大大提高了调度效率,减少了碳排放。研究成果不仅深化和拓展了时变条件下生产与出库配送一体化调度理论,也为引导冷链企业实现净零排放,促进生产配送系统的可持续发展提供了科学合理的思路。
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引用次数: 0
Managing consumer deliberation with demand investment under platform retailing 平台零售下用需求投资管理消费者决策
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109881
Li Bie , Song Huang , Yiwen Bian
This paper studies a manufacturer’s strategic incentives to manage consumer deliberation under platform retailing wherein either the manufacturer or the platform can engage in investment activities to enhance the market demand. Consumers, who are initially uncertain about the quality of the product on the platform, may incur deliberation costs to learn their true valuations. We establish a game-theoretic model to investigate the interplay between channel pricing and consumer deliberation with firm investments and its impact on channel equilibrium, and some nontrivial ramifications are derived. First, we find that consumers are less likely to engage in deliberation in the presence of investment, indicating the depression effect of demand-enhancing investment on consumers’ deliberation behaviors. Second, in the reselling format, the equilibrium channel strategy and the incentive provision for consumer deliberation depend primarily on the investment mode, investment efficiency, and deliberation cost. The manufacturer consistently provides an incentive to induce (inhibit) deliberation for a low (moderate) investment efficiency, independent of the deliberation cost. Third, firms have stronger incentives to induce deliberation by setting a higher price under manufacturer investment than under platform investment. And channel members’ investments do not necessarily benefit themselves, while the platform investment mode is always beneficial to consumer surplus. Finally, in the agency selling format, the highest thought-provoking price becomes suboptimal, and the platform benefits more from manufacturer investment than from platform investment when the commission rate is not excessively high. We further compare the two selling formats and find that the manufacturer prefers the reselling format if both the investment efficiency and the deliberation cost are high.
本文研究了在平台零售下,制造商或平台均可通过投资活动来提升市场需求的情况下,制造商管理消费者决策的战略激励。消费者最初对平台上的产品质量不确定,可能会产生考虑成本,以了解它们的真实估值。本文建立了一个博弈论模型,研究了渠道定价和消费者考虑与企业投资之间的相互作用及其对渠道均衡的影响,并得出了一些重要的结果。首先,我们发现在投资存在的情况下,消费者的审慎行为较少,说明需求增强型投资对消费者的审慎行为有抑制作用。第二,在转售模式下,均衡渠道策略和消费者审议的激励规定主要取决于投资方式、投资效率和审议成本。制造商始终如一地提供激励,以诱导(抑制)低(中等)投资效率的审议,独立于审议成本。第三,企业在制造商投资下比在平台投资下有更强的动机通过设定更高的价格来诱导考虑。渠道成员的投资并不一定有利于自己,而平台的投资模式总是有利于消费者剩余。最后,在代理销售模式下,最高的发人深省的价格成为次优,当佣金率不过高时,平台从制造商投资中获得的收益大于平台投资。我们进一步比较了两种销售模式,发现如果投资效率和审议成本都高,制造商更倾向于转售模式。
{"title":"Managing consumer deliberation with demand investment under platform retailing","authors":"Li Bie ,&nbsp;Song Huang ,&nbsp;Yiwen Bian","doi":"10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109881","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109881","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies a manufacturer’s strategic incentives to manage consumer deliberation under platform retailing wherein either the manufacturer or the platform can engage in investment activities to enhance the market demand. Consumers, who are initially uncertain about the quality of the product on the platform, may incur deliberation costs to learn their true valuations. We establish a game-theoretic model to investigate the interplay between channel pricing and consumer deliberation with firm investments and its impact on channel equilibrium, and some nontrivial ramifications are derived. First, we find that consumers are less likely to engage in deliberation in the presence of investment, indicating the depression effect of demand-enhancing investment on consumers’ deliberation behaviors. Second, in the reselling format, the equilibrium channel strategy and the incentive provision for consumer deliberation depend primarily on the investment mode, investment efficiency, and deliberation cost. The manufacturer consistently provides an incentive to induce (inhibit) deliberation for a low (moderate) investment efficiency, independent of the deliberation cost. Third, firms have stronger incentives to induce deliberation by setting a higher price under manufacturer investment than under platform investment. And channel members’ investments do not necessarily benefit themselves, while the platform investment mode is always beneficial to consumer surplus. Finally, in the agency selling format, the highest thought-provoking price becomes suboptimal, and the platform benefits more from manufacturer investment than from platform investment when the commission rate is not excessively high. We further compare the two selling formats and find that the manufacturer prefers the reselling format if both the investment efficiency and the deliberation cost are high.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14287,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Production Economics","volume":"292 ","pages":"Article 109881"},"PeriodicalIF":10.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145963241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimizing vaccination facility locations and capacity for pandemic response: A case study of Mashhad, Iran 优化疫苗接种设施地点和大流行应对能力:伊朗马什哈德的案例研究
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109865
Siamak Kheybari , Mohammad Reza Mehrpour , Nima Moradi , Maria Paola Scaparra
Strategic and tactical issues must be considered when determining the location of facilities for service provision during healthcare crises. This paper introduces a systematic multi-step approach for selecting the location of immunization centers and warehouses for medical supplies during a pandemic. Initially, the relevant strategic criteria encompassing infrastructure, environmental, and socio-demographic dimensions are identified from the literature. Expert opinions are then solicited through the Best-Worst Method to assess the importance of each criterion. In the third step, a Geographic Information System is employed to identify potential locations and their strategic cost based on these criteria. Finally, a Two-Echelon Capacitated Location Allocation Problem (2E-CLAP), integrating fairness and capacity considerations, is formulated to select optimal sites based on strategic costs utilizing the principles of the classic p-center and set covering problems. The model is solved using an enhanced multi-objective Genetic Algorithm. The methodology is validated through a case study to identify the location of vaccination facilities in Mashhad, Iran. The findings underscore the capability of the proposed approach to alleviate patient congestion at vaccination centers while concurrently optimizing the strategic criteria and ensuring comprehensive coverage for all city residents.
在确定医疗危机期间提供服务的设施位置时,必须考虑战略和战术问题。本文介绍了一种系统的多步骤方法,用于在大流行期间选择免疫中心和医疗用品仓库的位置。首先,从文献中确定了包括基础设施、环境和社会人口维度在内的相关战略标准。然后通过最佳最差方法征求专家意见,以评估每个标准的重要性。第三步,利用地理信息系统根据这些标准确定潜在地点及其战略成本。最后,利用经典的p-center和集合覆盖问题的原理,综合考虑公平性和容量因素,提出了基于战略成本的两梯次选址问题(2E-CLAP)。该模型采用增强型多目标遗传算法求解。通过确定伊朗马什哈德疫苗接种设施位置的案例研究验证了该方法。研究结果强调了所提出的方法在缓解疫苗接种中心患者拥堵的同时,优化战略标准并确保全面覆盖所有城市居民的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal hour-ahead commitment and storage decisions of wind power producers 风电生产商的最优提前一小时承诺与储能决策
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109696
Ece Cigdem Karakoyun , Harun Avci , Woonghee Tim Huh , Ayse Selin Kocaman , Emre Nadar
Renewable energy generators often rely on their battery deployments to meet their commitments in electricity markets. We consider the joint energy commitment and storage problem for a wind farm paired with a battery. The power producer decides, in each hour of a finite planning horizon, how much energy to commit to dispatching or purchasing for the next hour, how much wind energy to generate, and how much energy to charge or discharge. The power producer pays a penalty cost if they do not fully meet their commitment. Using a Markov decision process model under uncertainties in electricity price (assumed to be positive) and wind speed, we first prove the optimality of a state-dependent threshold policy for the power producer’s problem. This policy partitions the state space into several disjoint domains, each associated with a different action type, making it optimal to bring storage and commitment levels to different threshold pairs in each domain. We then employ our structural results to develop a heuristic solution procedure in a more general setting where the electricity price can also be negative. Numerical results show the high efficiency and scalability of this procedure. It provides solutions with an average deviation of only 0.3% from optimality and achieves a speedup of two to three orders of magnitude compared to the standard dynamic programming algorithm, reducing computation times from several hours to just a few minutes.
可再生能源发电企业通常依靠电池部署来实现在电力市场上的承诺。我们考虑与电池配对的风电场的联合能源承诺和存储问题。在有限的规划范围内,电力生产商决定在每小时内承诺为下一小时调度或购买多少能源,生产多少风能,以及充电或放电多少能源。如果电力生产商没有完全履行承诺,他们将支付罚款成本。本文首先利用电价(假设为正)和风速不确定条件下的马尔可夫决策过程模型,证明了状态依赖阈值策略对发电商问题的最优性。该策略将状态空间划分为几个不相交的域,每个域与不同的操作类型相关联,从而使每个域中的存储和承诺级别达到不同的阈值对。然后,我们利用我们的结构结果在更一般的设置中开发启发式解决程序,其中电价也可以为负。数值结果表明,该方法具有较高的效率和可扩展性。它提供的解决方案与最优性的平均偏差仅为0.3%,并且与标准动态规划算法相比,实现了两到三个数量级的加速,将计算时间从几个小时减少到几分钟。
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引用次数: 0
Used product resale through a manufacturer-operated customer-to-customer platform: Profitability and environmental impacts under third-party competition 通过制造商运营的客户对客户平台进行二手产品转售:第三方竞争下的盈利能力和环境影响
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109833
Yu Xue , Ozgun Caliskan Demirag
The growing use of third-party customer-to-customer (C2C) platforms has transformed secondhand markets by enabling consumers to trade used goods with ease. Alongside these third-party platforms, some manufacturers have launched free, self-operated C2C platforms to facilitate the resale of their own used products and support sustainability goals. We examine the economic and environmental impacts of encouraging secondhand trade through such manufacturer-operated platforms in the presence of a third-party platform. Using a two-period product lifecycle embedded in an infinite-horizon framework, we analyze three scenarios: no C2C platform, a third-party C2C platform, and the coexistence of a third-party and a self-operated C2C platform. Our findings reveal that when a third-party platform exists, self-operated resale platforms enhance profitability for manufacturers with strong brand recognition, given viable resale activity. Strong brand recognition enables these firms to attract a sufficient volume of secondhand transactions to their own platform. In contrast, manufacturers with weaker brand visibility incur profitability losses from such initiatives. For low-durability products, self-operated platforms can simultaneously deliver higher profit and lower environmental impact, aligning financial and sustainability outcomes for firms with strong brand recognition. However, introducing a self-operated C2C platform alongside a third-party option is not always environmentally beneficial. For moderate-durability products, such platforms worsen environmental outcomes even though profitability may increase. From the consumer perspective, sellers benefit from higher resale prices, while buyers face increased costs for used goods when a self-operated C2C platform is introduced alongside a third-party option.
越来越多的第三方客户对客户(C2C)平台的使用使消费者能够轻松地交易二手商品,从而改变了二手市场。除了这些第三方平台,一些制造商还推出了免费的自营C2C平台,以促进自己二手产品的转售,并支持可持续发展目标。我们研究了在第三方平台存在的情况下,通过制造商运营的平台鼓励二手贸易对经济和环境的影响。采用嵌入无限视界框架的两期产品生命周期,分析了无C2C平台、第三方C2C平台、第三方与自营C2C平台共存三种场景。我们的研究结果表明,当第三方平台存在时,自营转售平台可以提高具有强大品牌认知度的制造商的盈利能力,并提供可行的转售活动。强大的品牌认知度使这些公司能够吸引足够数量的二手交易到他们自己的平台上。相比之下,品牌知名度较低的制造商则会因此类举措而蒙受盈利损失。对于低耐用性产品,自营平台可以同时提供更高的利润和更低的环境影响,使具有强大品牌认知度的公司的财务和可持续性结果保持一致。然而,在引入第三方选项的同时引入自营C2C平台并不总是对环境有利。对于中等耐用性的产品,即使盈利能力可能会增加,这种平台也会恶化环境后果。从消费者的角度来看,卖家从更高的转售价格中受益,而当自营C2C平台与第三方选项一起引入时,买家将面临二手商品成本的增加。
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引用次数: 0
Applying sequential bifurcation and feed-forward simulation to reduce the prescriptive response time of a digital twin 应用顺序分岔和前馈模拟减少数字孪生的规定响应时间
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2026.109912
Ryan B. Walton, Frank W. Ciarallo, Lance E. Champagne
Recent advances in digital twin research have increasingly emphasized their role in real-time decision support for production and logistics systems, yet significant methodological gaps remain in enabling timely prescriptive analytics. This study addresses these gaps by proposing and evaluating an integrated approach that accelerates a digital twin’s ability to generate effective, computationally feasible decisions under dynamic operating conditions. This research envisions the digital twin as a decision support system capable of timely, relevant, and effective decision-making. To achieve this promise, the digital twin can describe its environment, predict future events, prescribe a course of action, and then actualize this course of action in the physical system. To ensure the decision is timely, relevant, and effective, the ability to quickly prescribe courses of action becomes paramount. This research addresses the fundamental trade-off between decision speed and depth of insight. Navigating this trade-off is facilitated by effective use of models to produce timely information, rapid identification of critical factors that drive decisions, and implementation of decisions when sufficient insight is available.
To address this need, the study integrates sequential bifurcation and feed-forward discrete event simulation to accelerate the digital twin’s ability to prescribe effective actions in real time. Sequential bifurcation efficiently narrows the decision space by identifying key input factors, while feed-forward simulation decomposes long simulations into shorter segments to enable earlier, partial decisions. Together, these methods significantly reduce prescriptive response time without compromising decision quality, supporting the digital twin’s role as a responsive decision support system. The paper also formalizes the trade-off between decision speed and depth of insight, offering a layered decision-making strategy to balance these competing demands. Experimental results demonstrate substantial improvements in decision timeliness and operational performance.
数字孪生体研究的最新进展越来越强调它们在生产和物流系统的实时决策支持中的作用,但在实现及时的规范性分析方面仍然存在重大的方法差距。本研究通过提出和评估一种集成方法来解决这些差距,该方法可以加速数字孪生体在动态操作条件下生成有效、计算可行决策的能力。本研究设想数字孪生作为一个决策支持系统能够及时,相关和有效的决策。为了实现这一承诺,数字孪生体可以描述其环境,预测未来事件,规定行动过程,然后在物理系统中实现这一行动过程。为了确保决策的及时性、相关性和有效性,快速制定行动方案的能力变得至关重要。本研究解决了决策速度和洞察力深度之间的基本权衡。通过有效地使用模型来产生及时的信息,快速识别驱动决策的关键因素,以及在有足够的洞察力时执行决策,可以促进这种权衡。为了满足这一需求,该研究集成了顺序分岔和前馈离散事件模拟,以加速数字孪生体实时规定有效行动的能力。序列分岔通过识别关键输入因素有效地缩小了决策空间,而前馈模拟将长模拟分解为更短的部分,以实现更早的部分决策。总之,这些方法在不影响决策质量的情况下显著减少了规定的响应时间,支持数字孪生作为响应性决策支持系统的角色。本文还形式化了决策速度和洞察力深度之间的权衡,提供了一种分层的决策策略来平衡这些相互竞争的需求。实验结果表明,在决策时效性和操作性能方面有了实质性的改进。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated strategic sourcing of critical raw materials in an era of global disruptions 在全球混乱的时代,关键原材料的综合战略采购
IF 1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109879
Tom Hunger , Philipp Jens Erfurth , Marlen Gabriele Arnold , Matthias Gerhard Wichmann
Geopolitical tensions pose a threat to the supply of critical raw materials (CRMs), which are highly concentrated in a small number of mining and processing countries. CRM-intensive technologies are driving growing demand for these materials and intensifying global competition for secure and reliable access. Some supplying countries pursue geopolitical interests that can restrict CRM availability. The combination of concentrated supply, rising demand, and geopolitical tensions underscores the need for strategies that enhance supply resilience. This article integrates supplier criticality into strategic sourcing to promote a more resilient and economically viable CRM supply for enterprises. This integration is implemented through the Dual Sourcing Raw Materials Lot Sizing Problem, which analyzes five criticality scenarios with four different spot market procurement shares in a silicon case study. Criticality is measured using the World Governance Indicators. The empirical results reveal that increasing procurement through spot markets significantly reduces dependency on critical suppliers and the associated supply risks. A central result is that supply disruptions caused by critical high-volume suppliers can increase total costs by up to 23 %, while higher spot market shares reduce this effect to approximately 10 %. Therefore, sourcing CRMs from spot markets increases the robustness of an enterprise's supplier portfolio while simultaneously reducing its dependency on critical suppliers. This article introduces an approach that links criticality with strategic sourcing and demonstrates quantitatively that dependencies on CRMs can be mitigated through spot market sourcing. Managerial implications follow for CRM-intensive sectors, where explicit spot-share targets can complement long-term contracting under geopolitical risk.
地缘政治紧张局势对关键原材料(CRMs)的供应构成威胁,这些原材料高度集中在少数采矿和加工国家。crm密集型技术正在推动对这些材料的需求不断增长,并加剧了对安全可靠访问的全球竞争。一些供应国追求地缘政治利益,可能会限制CRM的可用性。供应集中、需求上升和地缘政治紧张局势的结合,凸显了加强供应弹性战略的必要性。本文将供应商关键性整合到战略采购中,以促进企业更具弹性和经济可行性的CRM供应。这种整合是通过双采购原材料批量问题来实现的,该问题在硅案例研究中分析了四种不同现货市场采购份额的五种临界情况。重要性是用世界治理指标来衡量的。实证结果表明,通过现货市场增加采购显著降低了对关键供应商的依赖和相关的供应风险。一个重要的结果是,由关键的大批量供应商造成的供应中断可能会使总成本增加高达23%,而更高的现货市场份额将这种影响减少到约10%。因此,从现货市场采购crm增加了企业供应商组合的稳健性,同时减少了对关键供应商的依赖。本文介绍了一种将关键性与战略采购联系起来的方法,并定量地证明了通过现货市场采购可以减轻对crm的依赖。对crm密集型行业的管理影响也随之而来,在这些行业,明确的现货份额目标可以补充地缘政治风险下的长期合同。
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International Journal of Production Economics
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