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An efficient decomposition technique for Markov-chain analysis 马尔可夫链分析中一种有效的分解技术
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513286
Arun Kumar Somani, U. R. Sandadi, D. Twigg, T. Sharma
A current trend in system design is to emphasize integration of various functionalities. This results in a complex environment to be handled by a fault tolerant system. The fault tolerance in the system is achieved by means of redundancy in the components, built in fault diagnosis, and sophisticated recovery/reconfiguration techniques. Reliability analysis of such systems is usually done using a Markov representation of the system. However, Markov chains tend to grow exponentially with the number of components, and beyond a certain size they become intractable. We propose techniques to manage the modeling of a class of systems by means of decomposing the system Markov chain into smaller Markov chains of manageable size. Our decomposition techniques facilitate modeling both repairable and nonrepairable systems with reduced complexity. These decomposition techniques are proved to be accurate analytically. The applicability of these schemes is shown through an example.
当前系统设计的一个趋势是强调各种功能的集成。这就形成了一个由容错系统处理的复杂环境。系统中的容错是通过组件冗余、内置故障诊断和复杂的恢复/重新配置技术来实现的。这类系统的可靠性分析通常使用系统的马尔可夫表示来完成。然而,马尔可夫链往往会随着组成部分的数量呈指数增长,超过一定的规模,它们就变得难以处理。我们提出了通过将系统马尔可夫链分解为更小的可管理大小的马尔可夫链来管理一类系统的建模的技术。我们的分解技术简化了可修复和不可修复系统的建模,降低了复杂性。这些分解方法经分析证明是准确的。通过实例说明了这些方案的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
An inspection model for automatic trips and warning instruments 一种自动跳闸和报警仪表的检测模型
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513257
D. Sherwin
Automatic trips and warning instruments (TWI) protect important machines by shutting them down or warning the operators of impending serious failure. They are subject to hidden faults which must be discovered and corrected at frequent inspections, and spurious trips when the machine is stopped unnecessarily because of a fault in the TWI spurious trips may also be reduced by inspections. A Markov model is used to optimize the inspection rate with respect to costs on the assumption that inspection is a Poisson event. This simplifies the mathematics compared to a model with periodic inspections and is often just as close to the truth. An example is given involving gas-turbines in the off-shore oil industry. An extension of the model covers the case of 2-out-of-3 voting systems which are increasingly used to reduce the risks of both types of TWI failure. The optimizations are usually rather flat around the optimum, and inspections often have to fit in with operational needs, so approximate methods such as this are potentially very useful as the example illustrates.
自动跳闸和警告仪表(TWI)通过关闭或警告操作员即将发生的严重故障来保护重要机器。它们受到隐藏故障的影响,必须在频繁的检查中发现和纠正,当机器因TWI故障而不必要地停止时,假跳闸也可以通过检查来减少。在假定检查是泊松事件的前提下,利用马尔科夫模型对成本进行优化。与定期检查的模型相比,这简化了数学,并且通常同样接近事实。给出了近海石油工业中燃气轮机的一个例子。该模型的扩展涵盖了2-out- 3投票系统的情况,该系统越来越多地用于降低两种TWI失败的风险。优化通常在最优值周围相当平坦,并且检查通常必须符合操作需求,因此像这样的近似方法可能非常有用,如示例所示。
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引用次数: 3
Dependency modeling of an avionics power-supply for testability analysis 基于可测试性分析的航空电子电源依赖关系建模
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513259
M. A. Hinzmann
Dependency modeling (DM) can be used to provide an accurate measure of the testability attributes of items ranging in complexity from individual circuit-cards to complete weapon systems. This paper presents a method for performing testability analysis on an avionics power supply (PS) using DM. The level of indenture used in the DM process is assessed, and limitations of the model are described. The testability analysis tool used to compute the testability figure of merit (TFOM) is the weapon system testability analyzer (WSTA). The results of the modeling effort provide a measure of the fault detection capabilities of the power supply. In addition to PS assessment, the DM process as defined herein provides the benefits of: (1) a structured approach to diagnostic predictions; (2) the ability to adapt the model to the level of detail desired; (3) integration of reliability, maintainability and supportability considerations in the analysis; and (4) a framework for both go-nogo and diagnostic test development.
依赖性建模(DM)可用于提供从单个电路卡到完整武器系统的复杂物品的可测试性属性的精确度量。本文提出了一种使用DM对航空电子电源(PS)进行可测试性分析的方法。评估了DM过程中使用的契约水平,并描述了该模型的局限性。用于计算可测试性优劣值(tfm)的可测试性分析工具是武器系统可测试性分析仪(WSTA)。建模工作的结果提供了电源故障检测能力的度量。除了PS评估之外,本文定义的DM过程还提供了以下好处:(1)诊断预测的结构化方法;(2)使模型适应所需细节水平的能力;(3)在分析中综合考虑可靠性、维修性和可保障性;(4)建立了诊断测试和诊断测试开发的框架。
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引用次数: 1
Mass-transit system service quality: tradeoff analysis on reliability, maintainability and logistics 轨道交通系统服务质量:可靠性、可维护性和物流的权衡分析
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513293
P. Dersin, J. Durand
Service quality is influenced not only by intrinsic reliability and maintainability but also by logistical factors such as: the number of operations reserves of spare trains; the number of repair facilities; fleet size; average recovery times after perturbations; and spare parts. Operators are looking for service quality commitments from manufacturers. However, only intrinsic reliability and maintainability, and to some extent, service reliability, are determined by the manufacturer's design. This paper addresses quantitatively the dependence of service quality on intrinsic reliability and maintainability, and logistic variables. Analytical models, based on Markov chains, are used to derive the corresponding relationships. Sensitivity analyses can then be performed. Tradeoffs can be assessed quantitatively between several solutions for achieving a given service quality target at different costs. On the basis of such a tradeoff analysis. The effort toward a higher service quality can be guided in a life-cycle cost perspective. Also, reliability and maintainability apportionments can be performed which are derived from the service quality objective. Logistic parameters are seen to play a key part. Accordingly, the manufacturer which does not control maintenance may find it inappropriate to commit to a service quality level, but may commit, instead, to reliability and maintainability levels that, under precise assumptions on the logistics, result in the desired service quality.
服务质量不仅受到内在可靠性和可维护性的影响,还受到后勤因素的影响,如:备用列车的运行储备数量;维修设施的数目;机队规模;扰动后平均恢复时间;还有备用零件。运营商正在寻求制造商的服务质量承诺。然而,只有内在可靠性和可维护性,以及在一定程度上的服务可靠性,是由制造商的设计决定的。本文定量地讨论了服务质量对内在可靠性、可维护性和逻辑变量的依赖关系。基于马尔可夫链的分析模型用于推导相应的关系。然后可以进行敏感性分析。可以对以不同成本实现给定服务质量目标的几个解决方案之间的权衡进行定量评估。基于这样的权衡分析。可以从生命周期成本的角度来指导提高服务质量的工作。此外,还可以根据服务质量目标进行可靠性和可维护性分配。物流参数被认为起着关键的作用。因此,不控制维护的制造商可能会发现不适合承诺服务质量水平,但可能会承诺,相反,在对物流的精确假设下,可靠性和可维护性水平会产生期望的服务质量。
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引用次数: 8
A customer-oriented approach to optimizing reliability-allocation within a set of weapon-system requirements 一种在一套武器系统要求中优化可靠性分配的面向客户的方法
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513229
J.J. Hadel, P. Lakey
A systems engineering approach to weapon system requirements allocation demands that all system level performance requirements, including reliability, be flowed down and allocated to lower-level sub functions using a logical, structured methodology. Normally it is not in the customer's best interest to contractually specify MTBF design parameters developed from system requirements because such action borders on dictating hardware design solutions instead of focusing on communicating customer overall needs and desires to the development agency. Because of this, the requirements flowdown process appears to offer opportunities for multiple feasible solutions, all of which are capable of meeting the customer's top level requirements.
武器系统需求分配的系统工程方法要求所有系统级性能需求,包括可靠性,使用逻辑的、结构化的方法向下流动并分配给较低级别的子功能。通常情况下,以合同的方式指定从系统需求中开发的MTBF设计参数并不符合客户的最佳利益,因为这种行为接近于规定硬件设计解决方案,而不是专注于与开发机构沟通客户的总体需求和愿望。正因为如此,需求流程似乎为多个可行的解决方案提供了机会,所有这些解决方案都能够满足客户的顶级需求。
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引用次数: 6
Consideration of component failure mechanisms in the reliability assessment of electronic equipment-addressing the constant failure rate assumption 电子设备可靠性评估中元件失效机制的考虑——解决恒定故障率假设
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513224
D. Mortin, J. Krolewski, M. Cushing
The assumption of the constant failure rate can lead to excessive costs and nonoptimum design decisions. As this paper shows, simply summing constant failure rates can produce results which are highly inaccurate. Highly inaccurate results can introduce significant error in decisions made in everything from product design to logistics support requirements such as spares and maintainers. The authors argue that if a shift is made from reliability accounting tasks to reliability engineering analysis, the ability to address hazard rates versus time based on root-cause failure mechanisms will become cost-effective and can become an integral part of the concurrent engineering approach to product development. The notion of the constant failure rate should no longer be accepted as a rule. Instead, statistical distributions and assumptions must be shown to be appropriate every time they are used. Simplicity alone is not a sufficient reason to use any given methodology or approach.
故障率恒定的假设会导致成本过高和非最优设计决策。正如本文所示,简单地将恒定的故障率相加可能会产生高度不准确的结果。高度不准确的结果可能会导致从产品设计到备件和维护等后勤支持需求等各个方面的决策出现重大错误。作者认为,如果将可靠性核算任务转变为可靠性工程分析,那么基于根本原因失效机制来解决危险率与时间的关系的能力将变得具有成本效益,并且可以成为产品开发的并行工程方法的一个组成部分。故障率恒定的概念不应再被视为一种规则。相反,每次使用统计分布和假设时都必须证明它们是适当的。简单本身并不是使用任何给定方法或方法的充分理由。
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引用次数: 13
Exploratory research on nonthermal damage to electronics from fires and fire-suppression agents 火灾及灭火剂对电子设备非热损伤的探索性研究
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513215
F. Mowrer, M. Pecht
Electronic equipment is expected to operate reliably under normal conditions as well as under foreseeable abnormal conditions, particularly in life-critical and environmentally sensitive applications. One foreseeable abnormal condition to which electronic equipment may be subjected at least once during its life-cycle is a fire environment. Such an environment may include the thermal and corrosive effects in the immediate vicinity of the fire and the nonthermal effects associated with smoke contamination, humidity and corrosion in remote locations. Direct thermal effects are generally so severe that reasonable remedial actions may not be feasible. Fortunately, such effects are frequently restricted to a fairly small zone, often through the use of automatic fire detection and suppression systems. On the other hand, the thermal decomposition products of smoke and fire suppression agents resulting from even a small fire may permeate a building and cause nonthermal damage to electronic equipment in locations remote from the actual fire. With ever-increasing reliance being placed on electronic equipment in all types of applications and the consequent increase in value concentrations, nonthermal damage from fires and fire suppression agents is a topic of growing interest. The purpose of this exploratory research is to characterize nonthermal damage mechanisms, consequences, and potential preventive and remedial actions using a physics-of-failure approach.
电子设备期望在正常条件下以及可预见的异常条件下可靠地运行,特别是在生命关键和环境敏感的应用中。火灾环境是电子设备在其生命周期中至少会遭遇一次的可预见的异常情况。这种环境可能包括火灾附近的热效应和腐蚀效应,以及与烟雾污染、湿度和偏远地区腐蚀有关的非热效应。直接的热效应通常是如此严重,以至于合理的补救措施可能是不可行的。幸运的是,这种效果通常被限制在一个相当小的区域,通常是通过使用自动火灾探测和灭火系统。另一方面,即使是小火灾产生的烟雾和灭火剂的热分解产物也可能渗透到建筑物中,对远离实际火灾地点的电子设备造成非热损害。随着各类应用中对电子设备的依赖程度越来越高,其价值浓度也随之增加,火灾和灭火剂造成的非热损害日益引起人们的兴趣。本探索性研究的目的是利用失效物理方法表征非热损伤机制、后果以及潜在的预防和补救措施。
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引用次数: 5
Environmental stress screening strategies for multi-component systems with Weibull failure-times and imperfect failure detection 具有威布尔失效时间和不完全失效检测的多部件系统环境应力筛选策略
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513250
E. Pohl, D. Dietrich
Environmental stress screening (ESS) is employed to reduce, if not eliminate, the occurrence of early field failures. In this paper, a general two-level ESS model is presented for a multi-component electronic system. Screening is performed at the component and unit level. Components and connections are assumed to come from good and substandard populations and their time-to-failure distributions are modeled with mixture distributions. ESS models currently found in the literature assume that time-to-failure distributions are mixtures of exponentials. This paper extends previous work by examining mixtures of Weibull distributions for all assembly levels. The mixed Weibull distribution is used to examine how screening strategies change when wear-out mechanisms are present, Also, this paper relaxes the assumption that all failures precipitated by the screening process are found before being used in subsequent assembly levels. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the screening model. Significant changes in screening strategies are found when the assumptions of perfect failure detection and exponentiality are relaxed.
采用环境应力筛选(ESS)来减少(如果不能消除)早期现场故障的发生。本文针对多部件电子系统,提出了一个通用的两级ESS模型。筛选在组件和单元级别执行。假设组件和连接来自良好和不合格的种群,它们的失效时间分布采用混合分布建模。目前在文献中发现的ESS模型假设失效时间分布是指数的混合物。本文通过检查所有装配级别的威布尔分布的混合来扩展以前的工作。混合威布尔分布用于检查当存在磨损机制时筛选策略如何变化,此外,本文放松了筛选过程中沉淀的所有故障在随后的装配水平中使用之前被发现的假设。数值算例说明了该筛分模型。当完全故障检测和指数假设放宽时,发现筛选策略发生了显著变化。
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引用次数: 9
Avoiding safety-management errors in the next generation 避免下一代出现安全管理错误
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513290
M. W. Hulet, C. W. Carroll
This paper provides discussion items identifying safety management errors which should be unacceptable to safety management, particularly in the next generation due to the fact that the costs of noncompliance are simply too high. Safety management failures can be the final basis of program termination if there is a failure to properly analyze subsystems. Without the protection of proper hazard controls, catastrophic system failures may be the outcome. Some hazards slip through the cracks despite significant efforts to prevent it. However, it is the failure to apply acknowledged techniques in a proper and professional manner that should be totally unacceptable to safety managers, and will certainly be unacceptable to senior corporate managers in the next generation. Following the recommendations included in the paper could provide a reasonable means of assuring that frequent failures by safety management do not occur.
本文提供了讨论项目,确定安全管理错误,这些错误应该是安全管理不可接受的,特别是在下一代,因为不合规的成本太高。如果未能正确分析子系统,安全管理失败可能是项目终止的最终依据。如果没有适当的危险控制保护,可能会导致灾难性的系统故障。尽管采取了重大的预防措施,但有些危险还是会从裂缝中溜走。然而,未能以适当和专业的方式应用公认的技术,这对安全管理人员来说应该是完全不可接受的,对下一代的高级企业管理人员来说肯定是不可接受的。遵循文件中包含的建议可以提供一种合理的方法来确保安全管理不会发生频繁的故障。
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引用次数: 1
Rationalizing scheduled-maintenance requirements using reliability centered maintenance-a Canadian Air Force perspective 使用以可靠性为中心的维护使计划维护需求合理化——加拿大空军的观点
Pub Date : 1995-01-16 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513217
L.J. Hollick, G. Nelson
Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and reliability centered maintenance (RCM)/maintenance steering group (MSG) decision logic have been successfully used by military and commercial aviation manufacturers for over three decades to develop preventive maintenance programs for new aircraft fleets. However, once a fleet is in place, there is a requirement to periodically validate or rationalize the applicability and effectiveness of individual tasks in the program, and to adjust task frequencies. Experience has shown that it is inefficient to re-apply FMEA/RCM decision logic to every aircraft item on a fixed frequency basis. This paper identifies how the Canadian Air Force (CAF) proposes to make more efficient and effective use of the in-service data it collects to identify those items for which the preventive maintenance requirement is ineffective or inapplicable. Moreover, it discusses how the same data source can be used in follow-up investigation to determine the actual failure mode history of an item as a basis for comparison with the FMEA-the basis upon which the requirement for the existing tasks is developed.
失效模式和影响分析(FMEA)和以可靠性为中心的维修(RCM)/维修指导小组(MSG)决策逻辑已被军用和商用航空制造商成功地用于为新飞机机队制定预防性维修计划,已有30多年的历史。然而,一旦队列就位,就需要定期验证或合理化程序中单个任务的适用性和有效性,并调整任务频率。经验表明,以固定的频率对每个飞机项目重新应用FMEA/RCM决策逻辑是低效的。本文确定了加拿大空军(CAF)如何建议更高效和有效地利用其收集的在役数据,以确定预防性维护要求无效或不适用的项目。此外,它还讨论了如何在后续调查中使用相同的数据源来确定项目的实际失效模式历史,作为与fmea进行比较的基础-这是开发现有任务需求的基础。
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引用次数: 15
期刊
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings
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