Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513282
W. Willing, N. Goldstein
In this paper, the authors suggest the consideration of destructive single-event latchup (SEL) as an additional failure mode for components in space systems. With this orientation, the failure rate for this process can be combined with the standard failure analysis to obtain a composite failure rate prediction. This paper shows how SEL can be included in the standard reliability formalism and how this connection can be used to derive realistic specifications for the allowable SEL rate in a given satellite system.
{"title":"Combining single-event latchup and reliability requirements for space vehicles","authors":"W. Willing, N. Goldstein","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513282","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the authors suggest the consideration of destructive single-event latchup (SEL) as an additional failure mode for components in space systems. With this orientation, the failure rate for this process can be combined with the standard failure analysis to obtain a composite failure rate prediction. This paper shows how SEL can be included in the standard reliability formalism and how this connection can be used to derive realistic specifications for the allowable SEL rate in a given satellite system.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"165 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133225786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513242
K.J. Farquar, A. Mosleh
This paper presents an approach for quantifying reliability growth effectiveness through the development of a performance parameter and the application of that parameter to an existing reliability growth model, the tracking, growth and prediction (TGP) model. The basis for this performance parameter is presented from two perspectives; based either on previous experience in other reliability growth tests when data are available, or by subjective assessment of a given corporate culture when data are not available. Quantification of this parametric variable with data is presented by normalizing past performance with the reliability growth program goals. Development of the parametric variable without data is accomplished through the characterization of attributes that are indicative of the corporate culture. Five case studies were used to develop the performance parameter based on test data and by subjective assessment of capability. Although the results of these estimates of the performance parameter varied, they were reasonably close. Based on results of uncertainty propagation analyses, it is reasonable to conclude that a modified TGP model provides a conservative estimate of the risk involved in achieving reliability growth goals. This conclusion is based on the model's durability in sustaining the introduction of uncertainty into the existing failure rate parameters as well as into the performance parameter.
{"title":"An approach to quantifying reliability-growth effectiveness","authors":"K.J. Farquar, A. Mosleh","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513242","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an approach for quantifying reliability growth effectiveness through the development of a performance parameter and the application of that parameter to an existing reliability growth model, the tracking, growth and prediction (TGP) model. The basis for this performance parameter is presented from two perspectives; based either on previous experience in other reliability growth tests when data are available, or by subjective assessment of a given corporate culture when data are not available. Quantification of this parametric variable with data is presented by normalizing past performance with the reliability growth program goals. Development of the parametric variable without data is accomplished through the characterization of attributes that are indicative of the corporate culture. Five case studies were used to develop the performance parameter based on test data and by subjective assessment of capability. Although the results of these estimates of the performance parameter varied, they were reasonably close. Based on results of uncertainty propagation analyses, it is reasonable to conclude that a modified TGP model provides a conservative estimate of the risk involved in achieving reliability growth goals. This conclusion is based on the model's durability in sustaining the introduction of uncertainty into the existing failure rate parameters as well as into the performance parameter.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134599616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513239
C. K. Hansen
Telecommunications satellites are usually designed to operate in-orbit for as long as 10-15 years. This places a lot of focus on the reliability of the spacecraft from the early design phase, through the manufacturing process and up until after the spacecraft has been launched and put into service. In this paper, the authors discuss methods with primary focus on the reliability of an in-orbit satellite fleet, i.e. a collection of satellites that have been placed successfully in orbit. Traditional methods developed primarily for reliability predictions of a single satellite with no flight history are not adequate for this purpose. Realistic reliability predictions for an in-orbit satellite fleet must address the flight history (launch date and observed in-orbit failures) of each individual satellite, and furthermore spacecraft units are often observed to have nonconstant hazard rates, significantly different from those that can be calculated using military handbooks. To obtain reliability predictions for a satellite fleet with individual flight histories, nonconstant unit hazard rates, and complicated redundancy configurations, Monte-Carlo simulation is a very useful tool, because it can handle complex models in contrast to most analytical tools.
{"title":"Reliability prediction and simulation for a communications-satellite fleet","authors":"C. K. Hansen","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513239","url":null,"abstract":"Telecommunications satellites are usually designed to operate in-orbit for as long as 10-15 years. This places a lot of focus on the reliability of the spacecraft from the early design phase, through the manufacturing process and up until after the spacecraft has been launched and put into service. In this paper, the authors discuss methods with primary focus on the reliability of an in-orbit satellite fleet, i.e. a collection of satellites that have been placed successfully in orbit. Traditional methods developed primarily for reliability predictions of a single satellite with no flight history are not adequate for this purpose. Realistic reliability predictions for an in-orbit satellite fleet must address the flight history (launch date and observed in-orbit failures) of each individual satellite, and furthermore spacecraft units are often observed to have nonconstant hazard rates, significantly different from those that can be calculated using military handbooks. To obtain reliability predictions for a satellite fleet with individual flight histories, nonconstant unit hazard rates, and complicated redundancy configurations, Monte-Carlo simulation is a very useful tool, because it can handle complex models in contrast to most analytical tools.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124102300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513262
C. Smidts, S. Shen, A. Mosleh
A taxonomy of human cognitive behavior has been developed which will help classify human cognitive errors and is a first step in the collection of human error data from actual events. This taxonomy is based on a cognitive model for accident situations in nuclear power plants called the IDA (information, decision, and action) cognitive model, IDA essentially focuses on aspects of problem solving and decision making. However, observation of information, crew communication, and distribution of tasks are also addressed even if in a lesser extent. The basic elements of the model include the mental state (engine of the problem solving and decision making process), the goals generated by the operators, and the strategies used to solve them. The authors present the taxonomy and apply it to an example: the pressurizer spray valve failure event of the Crystal River-3 nuclear power plant.
{"title":"A taxonomy and root-cause analysis of human cognitive behavior based on a cognitive model","authors":"C. Smidts, S. Shen, A. Mosleh","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513262","url":null,"abstract":"A taxonomy of human cognitive behavior has been developed which will help classify human cognitive errors and is a first step in the collection of human error data from actual events. This taxonomy is based on a cognitive model for accident situations in nuclear power plants called the IDA (information, decision, and action) cognitive model, IDA essentially focuses on aspects of problem solving and decision making. However, observation of information, crew communication, and distribution of tasks are also addressed even if in a lesser extent. The basic elements of the model include the mental state (engine of the problem solving and decision making process), the goals generated by the operators, and the strategies used to solve them. The authors present the taxonomy and apply it to an example: the pressurizer spray valve failure event of the Crystal River-3 nuclear power plant.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120961514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513291
E. Collins, J. Fragola
This paper discusses an approach which places the proper focus upon latent events and the consideration of the "compelling signals" given to operators for actions which may trigger potential accident scenarios. These findings are based upon years of research into the fundamentals of the human cognition process. In particular, it has involved detailed investigations into the interactions between the decision making or action taking cognitive function and the information storage and retrieval functions of both the long term and short term memory. The application of these findings, and the extant body of knowledge on fundamental human thought and action constraints, to the postulation of a paradigm for human error avoidance is also discussed. These concepts were assembled during a study of human error considerations for the aerospace industry. Here an attempt is made to define the most effective design guidance to allow the human to perform the task at hand, most reliably, given the response time available and the related information processing capability of the brain.
{"title":"Advances in human-error evaluation","authors":"E. Collins, J. Fragola","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513291","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses an approach which places the proper focus upon latent events and the consideration of the \"compelling signals\" given to operators for actions which may trigger potential accident scenarios. These findings are based upon years of research into the fundamentals of the human cognition process. In particular, it has involved detailed investigations into the interactions between the decision making or action taking cognitive function and the information storage and retrieval functions of both the long term and short term memory. The application of these findings, and the extant body of knowledge on fundamental human thought and action constraints, to the postulation of a paradigm for human error avoidance is also discussed. These concepts were assembled during a study of human error considerations for the aerospace industry. Here an attempt is made to define the most effective design guidance to allow the human to perform the task at hand, most reliably, given the response time available and the related information processing capability of the brain.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124525626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513223
A. Chiang, D. B. Barker, J. Krolewski, M. Cushing
Modern commercial and military systems rely heavily on large quantities of electronics with high packaging densities. System readiness is strongly dependent upon the reliability of each electronic subsystem, its associate circuit card assemblies and individual components. Currently missing in electronic system reliability assessment is computer simulation from the circuit card level upward in the electronic system. The performance of the electronic box directly effects the reliability of the electronics inside the box since the box filters many environmental loads such as shock and vibration, temperature change, etc. A research effort has been initiated by the CALCE Electronic Packaging Research Center, sponsored by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO), to develop a software program to perform electronic box-level reliability assessment. In addition to the box level assessment, more reliable dynamic load information will be available from the program to be transmitted downward to the PWB and component level for further reliability assessment. A description is presented in this paper of the software program that has been developed. Further improvement of the software tool will continue to increase its robustness and sophistication by incorporating users suggestions.
{"title":"Electronic box-level reliability assessment using computer modeling and simulation","authors":"A. Chiang, D. B. Barker, J. Krolewski, M. Cushing","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513223","url":null,"abstract":"Modern commercial and military systems rely heavily on large quantities of electronics with high packaging densities. System readiness is strongly dependent upon the reliability of each electronic subsystem, its associate circuit card assemblies and individual components. Currently missing in electronic system reliability assessment is computer simulation from the circuit card level upward in the electronic system. The performance of the electronic box directly effects the reliability of the electronics inside the box since the box filters many environmental loads such as shock and vibration, temperature change, etc. A research effort has been initiated by the CALCE Electronic Packaging Research Center, sponsored by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO), to develop a software program to perform electronic box-level reliability assessment. In addition to the box level assessment, more reliable dynamic load information will be available from the program to be transmitted downward to the PWB and component level for further reliability assessment. A description is presented in this paper of the software program that has been developed. Further improvement of the software tool will continue to increase its robustness and sophistication by incorporating users suggestions.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126419209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513220
U. D. Perera
The paper addresses reliability aspects of mobile phones, also known as cellular phones. Mobile phones have been in use for about a decade. Early models were low in technology and usage was limited. However, the technology of phones has been improved significantly during the last few years. The market demand has been increasing in a similar manner over the last few years. It is anticipated to increase this trend in the foreseeable future. Aspects covered include those considered at different stages of the product development: design and development; reliability demonstration; and environmental testing. Also considered are commercial issues that effect the product reliability.
{"title":"Reliability of mobile phones","authors":"U. D. Perera","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513220","url":null,"abstract":"The paper addresses reliability aspects of mobile phones, also known as cellular phones. Mobile phones have been in use for about a decade. Early models were low in technology and usage was limited. However, the technology of phones has been improved significantly during the last few years. The market demand has been increasing in a similar manner over the last few years. It is anticipated to increase this trend in the foreseeable future. Aspects covered include those considered at different stages of the product development: design and development; reliability demonstration; and environmental testing. Also considered are commercial issues that effect the product reliability.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126080782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1995-01-16DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513288
A. Jagannath, S. Rai
An understanding of the impact of hardware and software faults (HSFs) on any application is critical to the design of efficient software fault tolerance techniques. This paper considers HSFs and, by using a fault injection experiment, studies their impact on an automatic repeat request (ARQ) scheme in terms of throughput degradation. An ARQ scheme is used for error control in computer networks and is implemented in the data link layer. Our study shows that even in the absence of errors in the communication channel the throughput may be degraded with HSFs. Furthermore, we need to identify certain critical variables as locations for fault injection thereby elevating the fault models to a higher level of abstraction. The variables lie in the active path of the program and help accelerate the failure process. This results in fewer runs being needed in conducting the fault injection experiment. Since the accelerated failure process represents the worst case scenario for the fault models considered, the experiences would enable the fault tolerance engineer in designing/choosing fault tolerance mechanisms.
{"title":"Impact of hardware and software faults on ARQ schemes-an experimental study","authors":"A. Jagannath, S. Rai","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513288","url":null,"abstract":"An understanding of the impact of hardware and software faults (HSFs) on any application is critical to the design of efficient software fault tolerance techniques. This paper considers HSFs and, by using a fault injection experiment, studies their impact on an automatic repeat request (ARQ) scheme in terms of throughput degradation. An ARQ scheme is used for error control in computer networks and is implemented in the data link layer. Our study shows that even in the absence of errors in the communication channel the throughput may be degraded with HSFs. Furthermore, we need to identify certain critical variables as locations for fault injection thereby elevating the fault models to a higher level of abstraction. The variables lie in the active path of the program and help accelerate the failure process. This results in fewer runs being needed in conducting the fault injection experiment. Since the accelerated failure process represents the worst case scenario for the fault models considered, the experiences would enable the fault tolerance engineer in designing/choosing fault tolerance mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":" 16","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113952875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513213
{"title":"The P. K. McElroy Award for Best Paper","authors":"","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513213","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"13 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134414048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1995.513233
K. M. Bayley, P.P. Tabbagh
This paper addresses the techniques used to assure system reliability and maintainability (R&M) within the acquisition process of the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF). The RAAF recognizes that R&M are principal determinants of the level of operational availability that will be achieved by weapon systems and key factors of life cycle cost. R&M are therefore important performance parameters relevant in the acquisition process. To ensure clarity, the RAAF acquisition process is explained and contrasted with the US process. R&M is assured in RAAF weapon system acquisition programs in the following manner: (1) the R&M requirements are developed in a logical manner from operational preparedness objectives for the weapon system; (2) R&M requirements are quantitatively specified; (3) competing tenderers for the weapon system development propose and submit self devised R&M program plans to achieve the R&M performance requirements; (4) prospective contractor proposals are reviewed and compared using the Reliability Guide; (5) the successful tenderer assumes the commercial risk of achieving all of the system performance requirements including R&M; and (6) monitoring of the contractor during system development is "hands-off" but "eyes open". This approach to R&M in acquisition was chosen after consideration of the acquisition process in a number of countries, especially the US and UK. The approach is similar to that used by the UK and has been in use in Australia now for about two years.
{"title":"The assurance of R&M in acquisition programs of the Royal Australian Air Force","authors":"K. M. Bayley, P.P. Tabbagh","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1995.513233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1995.513233","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the techniques used to assure system reliability and maintainability (R&M) within the acquisition process of the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF). The RAAF recognizes that R&M are principal determinants of the level of operational availability that will be achieved by weapon systems and key factors of life cycle cost. R&M are therefore important performance parameters relevant in the acquisition process. To ensure clarity, the RAAF acquisition process is explained and contrasted with the US process. R&M is assured in RAAF weapon system acquisition programs in the following manner: (1) the R&M requirements are developed in a logical manner from operational preparedness objectives for the weapon system; (2) R&M requirements are quantitatively specified; (3) competing tenderers for the weapon system development propose and submit self devised R&M program plans to achieve the R&M performance requirements; (4) prospective contractor proposals are reviewed and compared using the Reliability Guide; (5) the successful tenderer assumes the commercial risk of achieving all of the system performance requirements including R&M; and (6) monitoring of the contractor during system development is \"hands-off\" but \"eyes open\". This approach to R&M in acquisition was chosen after consideration of the acquisition process in a number of countries, especially the US and UK. The approach is similar to that used by the UK and has been in use in Australia now for about two years.","PeriodicalId":143102,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium 1995 Proceedings","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122068585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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