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2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium最新文献

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Increasing the effectiveness of FRACAS 提高FRACAS的有效性
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925770
M. Ciemian
Failure Reporting, Analysis, and Corrective Action Systems (FRACAS) are employed in many different product areas in both the commercial and military marketplace. FRACAS has been surveyed as the most important reliability task that can be performed on a program. Typically, a FRACAS system consists of a database that captures and documents field failures, depot returns, failure analysis / investigations, and corrective actions. Trends and data from a FRACAS system are used to drive reliability and performance improvements on a program. These improvements are the over arching goal of FRACAS. This paper addresses a FRACAS system in general and as employed by AAI Corporation, the contractor on the U.S. ARMY Shadowreg tactical unmanned aircraft system. (Shadowreg TUAS) Emphasis is placed on data collection, evaluation, and analysis on a medium volume program or product. This paper does not address the merits of the various commercial software packages, but rather shows a philosophy and strategy that can be used to create an effective FRACAS system (which will consist of more than just a failure and corrective action database) in a real world non-ideal data environment.
故障报告、分析和纠正措施系统(FRACAS)应用于商业和军事市场的许多不同产品领域。FRACAS被认为是一个项目中最重要的可靠性任务。通常,FRACAS系统包括一个数据库,用于捕获和记录现场故障、仓库退货、故障分析/调查以及纠正措施。来自FRACAS系统的趋势和数据用于驱动项目的可靠性和性能改进。这些改进是FRACAS的首要目标。本文介绍了美国陆军Shadowreg战术无人机系统承包商AAI公司所采用的FRACAS系统。(Shadowreg TUAS)重点放在中型程序或产品的数据收集、评估和分析上。本文并没有讨论各种商业软件包的优点,而是展示了在现实世界的非理想数据环境中用于创建有效的FRACAS系统(它将不仅仅包括故障和纠正措施数据库)的理念和策略。
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引用次数: 6
Reliability improvement of deformation tools with the Taguchi robust design 用田口稳健设计提高变形工具的可靠性
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925798
C. Băban, M. Baban, I. Radu
As we are moving to more emerging global markets, one of the most important goals of a manufacturer is to improve the reliability of its products. While the reliability may be affected by many potentially factors, some factors are more important and that they have to be identified. The values of the significant factors that can improve reliability are also important to be recommended. Taguchi's robust design experiments provides an efficient way to achieve these goals and the concepts of the Taguchi's method in the context of the reliability improvement are emphasized at the beginning of the paper.
随着我们进入更多新兴的全球市场,制造商最重要的目标之一是提高其产品的可靠性。虽然可靠性可能受到许多潜在因素的影响,但有些因素更为重要,必须加以识别。可以提高可靠性的重要因素的值也很重要,值得推荐。田口鲁棒设计实验为实现这些目标提供了有效的途径,并在论文的开头强调了田口鲁棒设计方法在可靠性改进背景下的概念。
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引用次数: 3
Examination of the interplay of reliability and security using System Modeling Language 使用系统建模语言检查可靠性和安全性的相互作用
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925842
B. Haan
System modeling language (OMG SysMLTM) is a graphical modeling language that has been developed to describe complex systems. It provides semantics and notations to describe complex systems independent of engineering tools and methodologies. The study summarized in this paper applied the SysML semantics and notation to provide a common reference for examining the interplay of reliability and security in complex systems. This paper briefly outlines elements of the articulation of reliability and security in SysML and presents general findings from the study of their interplay in the context of a hypothetical communication system. This review begins with a demonstration of defining desired system functionality using the SysML use case diagram. Additional use case diagrams are then created to model a malicious agent's desire to either disrupt or gain illegal access to a system. Because the use case can be used to define both legitimate and illegitimate functional applications of the system, reliability and security are identified as coherent concepts. Being coherent, the correlation of reliability and security will depend on their contextual separation. Contextual separation is built through associations from the use case diagram through other SysML constructs. These associations point to operating environment and operational periods linked to a particular use case and provides context for element-level reliability modeling. Functional expectations, operating conditions, and operational periods are linked to parametric diagrams that model individual facets of reliability and security. This contextually embeds reliability and security directly into the system model. The interplay between reliability and security occurs when associations to their embedded facets cross paths in the system model. It is found that the interaction is dependent on the form of the attack selected by a malicious agent. Systems that are highly reliable in the functional sense are typically secure against attacks aimed at simply halting functionality. In contrast, the security of that same system against forms of attack that exploit some system characteristic will depend on the attacker's knowledge of and access to the system.
系统建模语言(OMG SysMLTM)是一种用于描述复杂系统的图形化建模语言。它提供语义和符号来描述独立于工程工具和方法的复杂系统。本文总结的研究应用SysML语义和符号,为研究复杂系统中可靠性和安全性的相互作用提供了一个通用的参考。本文简要概述了SysML中可靠性和安全性的表达要素,并介绍了在假设的通信系统中对它们的相互作用进行研究的一般结果。这个回顾从使用SysML用例图定义所需系统功能的演示开始。然后创建额外的用例图来模拟恶意代理破坏或非法访问系统的愿望。因为用例可以用来定义系统的合法和非法的功能应用程序,所以可靠性和安全性被确定为一致的概念。由于可靠性和安全性是一致的,它们之间的相关性取决于它们的上下文分离。上下文分离是通过从用例图到其他SysML构造的关联来构建的。这些关联指向与特定用例相关联的操作环境和操作周期,并为元素级可靠性建模提供上下文。功能期望、操作条件和操作周期与参数图相关联,这些参数图对可靠性和安全性的各个方面进行建模。这在上下文中将可靠性和安全性直接嵌入到系统模型中。当与它们的嵌入式方面的关联在系统模型中交叉时,可靠性和安全性之间就会发生相互作用。发现交互依赖于恶意代理选择的攻击形式。在功能意义上高度可靠的系统通常是安全的,不会受到旨在简单停止功能的攻击。相反,同一系统抵御利用某些系统特征的各种攻击的安全性将取决于攻击者对系统的了解和访问权限。
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引用次数: 1
Reliability predictions — more than the sum of the parts 可靠性预测-超过部分的总和
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925837
J. McLinn
Reliability predictions have been the subject of much discussion over the prior 20 years. Some articles have proclaimed them to be valueless while other articles suggest importance. Spending a great amount of time calculating numbers does not present value directly. Using the numbers as the basis for additional positive activities would seem to be one reason for predictions. Any reliability prediction should be considered as a single tool in a larger reliability improvement tool box that often feeds other more important activities. This role of predictions in a larger reliability world will be explored here. Examples of follow-on improvement activities include, lessons learned about components, identification of critical components, identification of critical design features, estimation of high-stress conditions, approaches for derating, design for reliability, design for manufacture, input to an FMEA, input to a verification test plan, and warranty and repair estimates. The prediction is not an end of the process, but rather the beginning of the larger reliability improvement and design review process. Here, the value of predictions will be tied to lessons learned and outcomes. Predictions have fundamentally changed over the last 20 years for several reasons. As Failure-in-Time (FIT) numbers have declined in most handbooks, the MTBF prediction didn't always match subsequent field data on an absolute scale. It is possible to be a factor of three different or more. Each successive issue of Telcordia or the Mil Handbook 217 (now 217Plus), appears rather similar to the prior ones. This simplicity masks some of the evolution in numerical content and models. There is much to be learned from a short review of the prediction process itself. Failure rate estimates from tables are not trustworthy for they depend upon experience, customer applications, models and other unknown items. At some point it is time to wrap up the prediction phase and move onto improvement and feed other reliability tools. The ldquoLessons Learnedrdquo based upon knowledge of the design, manufacture, customer environment or are valuable. Items in lessons learned might cover a variety of situations that can enhance or detract from estimated reliability. Other lessons learned are contained in design guidelines, derating standards. All of these should be addressed early in any project, once a Bill of Materials (BOM) has been generated. Each has an impact on the prediction estimate but are not overtly included in the process.
在过去的20年中,可靠性预测一直是许多讨论的主题。一些文章宣称它们毫无价值,而另一些文章则认为它们很重要。花费大量时间计算数字并不能直接显示价值。利用这些数字作为额外积极活动的基础,似乎是做出预测的原因之一。任何可靠性预测都应该被看作是一个更大的可靠性改进工具箱中的一个工具,这个工具箱经常为其他更重要的活动提供支持。本文将探讨预测在更大的可靠性世界中的作用。后续改进活动的例子包括:关于组件的经验教训、关键组件的识别、关键设计特征的识别、高应力条件的估计、降额方法、可靠性设计、制造设计、FMEA的输入、验证测试计划的输入,以及保证和维修估计。预测不是过程的结束,而是更大的可靠性改进和设计评审过程的开始。在这里,预测的价值将与经验教训和结果联系在一起。在过去的20年里,由于几个原因,预测发生了根本性的变化。由于大多数手册中的FIT数据都在下降,因此MTBF预测在绝对尺度上并不总是与后续的现场数据相匹配。它可能是三个不同或更多的因素。Telcordia或《军事手册217》(现为《217 plus》)的每一期都与前几期相当相似。这种简单性掩盖了数值内容和模型的一些演变。从对预测过程本身的简短回顾中可以学到很多东西。表中的故障率估计是不可信的,因为它们依赖于经验、客户应用程序、模型和其他未知项目。在某种程度上,是时候结束预测阶段,转向改进和提供其他可靠性工具了。所学到的问题和经验是基于对设计、制造、客户环境的了解,或者是有价值的。经验教训中的项目可能涵盖各种情况,可以提高或降低估计的可靠性。其他经验教训包含在设计指南、降额标准中。在任何项目的早期,一旦生成了物料清单(BOM),就应该处理所有这些问题。每一个都对预测估计有影响,但没有公开地包括在过程中。
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引用次数: 3
Probabilistic analysis of safety-critical adaptive systems with temporal dependences 具有时间依赖性的安全关键型自适应系统的概率分析
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925786
R. Adler, D. Domis, M. Furster, M. Trapp
Dynamic adaptation means that components are reconfigured at run time. Consequently, the degree to which a system fulfils its functional and safety requirements depends on the current system configuration at run time. The probability of a violation of functional requirements in combination with an importance factor for each requirement gives us a measure for reliability. In the same way, the degree of violation of safety requirements can be a measure for safety. These measures can easily be derived based on the probabilities of possible system configurations. For this purpose, we are introducing a new probabilistic analysis technique that determines configuration probabilities based on Fault trees, Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) and Markov chains. Through our recent work we have been able to determine configuration probabilities of systems but we neglected timing aspects . Timing delays have impact on the adaptation behavior and are necessary to handle cyclic dependences. The contribution of the present article is to extend analysis towards models with timing delays. This technique builds upon the Methodologies and Architectures for Runtime Adaptive Systems (MARS) , a modeling concept we use for specifying the adaptation behavior of a system at design time. The results of this paper determine configuration probabilities, that are necessary to quantify the fulfillment of functional and safety requirements by adaptive systems.
动态适应意味着组件在运行时被重新配置。因此,系统满足其功能和安全需求的程度取决于运行时的当前系统配置。违背功能需求的概率与每个需求的重要因素相结合,为我们提供了可靠性的度量。同样,违反安全要求的程度可以作为安全的衡量标准。这些度量可以很容易地根据可能的系统配置的概率推导出来。为此,我们引入了一种新的概率分析技术,该技术基于故障树、二进制决策图(bdd)和马尔可夫链来确定配置概率。通过我们最近的工作,我们已经能够确定系统的配置概率,但我们忽略了时间方面。时间延迟对适应行为有影响,并且是处理循环依赖所必需的。本文的贡献是将分析扩展到具有时间延迟的模型。该技术建立在运行时自适应系统(MARS)的方法和体系结构之上,这是我们用于在设计时指定系统的自适应行为的建模概念。本文的结果确定了配置概率,这是量化自适应系统实现功能和安全要求所必需的。
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引用次数: 4
Parameter estimation for software reliability models considering failure correlation 考虑故障相关性的软件可靠性模型参数估计
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925830
Bo Yang, Suchang Guo, Ning Ning, Hongzhong Huang
Many existing software reliability models are based on the assumption of statistical independence among successive software failures. In reality, this assumption could be easily violated. In recent years, efforts have been made to relax this unrealistic assumption and a software reliability modeling framework considering failure correlation was developed by Goseva-Popstojanova and Trivedi. However, some important issues that are crucial to the proposed modeling framework to be used in practice remain unstudied, such as the method of estimation of model parameters. In this paper, we study the parameter estimation problem for the software reliability modeling framework developed in. We propose a relationship function among model parameters which could be essential to the reduction of the number of parameters to be estimated as well as to the reliability prediction using the proposed modeling framework. Two parameter estimation methods are developed based on deferent types of data available, using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Simulation results preliminarily show that the accuracy of both proposed estimation methods seem to be satisfactory.
现有的许多软件可靠性模型都是基于连续软件故障之间的统计独立性假设。实际上,这个假设很容易被违背。近年来,人们努力放宽这种不切实际的假设,Goseva-Popstojanova和Trivedi开发了一个考虑故障相关性的软件可靠性建模框架。然而,对于所提出的建模框架在实际应用中至关重要的一些问题,如模型参数的估计方法,还没有得到研究。本文研究了软件可靠性建模框架的参数估计问题。我们提出了模型参数之间的关系函数,这对于减少需要估计的参数数量以及使用所提出的建模框架进行可靠性预测至关重要。利用极大似然估计(MLE)方法,根据不同类型的可用数据,提出了两种参数估计方法。仿真结果初步表明,两种估计方法的精度都令人满意。
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引用次数: 4
Telcordia Reliability Prediction Procedure: Upper confidence levels Telcordia可靠性预测程序:上置信度
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925838
J. Bennett
SR-332, reliability prediction procedure for electronic equipment, is a module of the Telcordia family of requirements (FR) known as FR-796, reliability and quality generic requirements (RQGR). The purpose of the Telcordia reliability prediction procedure (RPP) is to document a standard method for predicting device and unit hardware reliability as well as serial system hardware reliability. A prediction of reliability is an important element in the process of selecting equipment for use by telecommunications service providers and other buyers of electronic equipment. As used in the RPP, reliability is a measure of the frequency of equipment failures as a function of time. In 2006, the RPP was revised for the first time since 2001. Among many changes, the new issue 2 introduced a significant enhancement to the procedure: the ability to estimate arbitrary upper confidence levels (UCLs). This paper will provide a brief overview of the RPP, review modifications to the procedure in Issue 2, and in particular describe the motivation for defining these new UCL techniques, the addition of generic standard deviation values, and the methodologies for calculating upper confidence levels. In conclusion, the techniques introduced in issue 2 allow for the calculation of failure rate UCLs at any level of confidence, not just 90%. A side benefit is that the new techniques also allow for the estimation of the mean failure rate of electronic equipment.
SR-332,电子设备可靠性预测程序,是Telcordia要求族(FR)的一个模块,称为FR-796,可靠性和质量通用要求(RQGR)。Telcordia可靠性预测程序(RPP)的目的是记录预测设备和单元硬件可靠性以及串行系统硬件可靠性的标准方法。可靠性预测是电信服务提供者和其他电子设备购买者选择设备过程中的一个重要因素。正如在RPP中使用的那样,可靠性是设备故障频率作为时间函数的度量。2006年,RPP自2001年以来首次进行了修订。在许多变化中,新问题2引入了对程序的重大增强:估计任意上置信水平(ucl)的能力。本文将提供RPP的简要概述,回顾第2期中对程序的修改,并特别描述定义这些新的UCL技术的动机,通用标准偏差值的添加,以及计算较高置信水平的方法。总之,问题2中介绍的技术允许在任何置信度水平上计算失败率ucl,而不仅仅是90%。一个附带的好处是,新技术还允许估计电子设备的平均故障率。
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引用次数: 2
Reliability analysis of phased-mission systems using Bayesian networks 基于贝叶斯网络的分阶段任务系统可靠性分析
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925763
Dong Liu, Chunyuan Zhang, Weiyan Xing, Rui Li
The paper presents a Bayesian networks (BN) based method to analyze the reliability of phased-mission systems (PMS). The method includes three steps. Firstly, each phase of PMS is represented by a BN framework, named phase-BN. Then, in order to express the dependences across phases, all the phase-BN are combined by (1) connecting the root nodes that represent the same component but belong to different phases, and (2) connecting the leaf nodes of the phase-BN with a new node that represents the whole PMS mission. The new constructed BN is named PMS-BN. Lastly, the reliability analysis is performed by a discrete-time BN modeling acting on PMS-BN. Two examples are used to expatiate on the proposed approach. The PMS-BN based method provides a new way to analyze PMS, especially those with dynamic phases. Further, based on PMS-BN, fault diagnoses and sensitivity analysis can be performed easily.
提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的分阶段任务系统可靠性分析方法。该方法包括三个步骤。首先,PMS的每个阶段用BN框架表示,称为phase-BN。然后,为了表示阶段间的依赖关系,将所有phase-BN组合为(1)连接代表相同组件但属于不同阶段的根节点,(2)将phase-BN的叶子节点与代表整个PMS任务的新节点连接起来。新建成的BN被命名为PMS-BN。最后,采用基于PMS-BN的离散时间BN模型进行可靠性分析。用两个实例对所提出的方法进行了阐述。基于PMS- bn的方法为分析PMS,特别是动态相的PMS提供了一种新的方法。此外,基于PMS-BN可以方便地进行故障诊断和灵敏度分析。
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引用次数: 7
Analysis of the performance of safety-critical systems with diagnosis and periodic inspection 具有诊断和定期检查的安全关键系统的性能分析
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925785
Tieling Zhang, Yiming Wang, M. Xie
This paper presents a method for analysis of performance indexes of safety-critical systems. It incorporates periodic inspection and repair which occurs just after each time interval into Markov model. This modeling technique is applied to the typical system structures regulated in the standard IEC 61508. Both perfect and imperfect inspections and repairs can be modeled. Through derivation, a variety of important system performance indexes can be obtained in closed form, that include MTTF, MTTFD, MTTFS, average availability, average probability of failure-dangerous, and average probability of failure on demand. The solutions are applied to 1-out-of-2 system structure to illustrate the usefulness of this method in analyzing the system performance, for example, choice of proof-test interval and evaluation on the average probability of failure on demand.
本文提出了一种分析安全关键系统性能指标的方法。它将每个时间间隔后发生的定期检查和维修纳入马尔可夫模型。该建模技术适用于标准IEC 61508中规定的典型系统结构。完美和不完美的检查和修理都可以建模。通过推导,可以以封闭的形式得到各种重要的系统性能指标,包括MTTF、MTTFD、MTTFS、平均可用性、平均危险故障概率和平均随需故障概率。以1-out- 2系统结构为例,说明了该方法在分析系统性能方面的有效性,例如,证明-测试区间的选择和按需故障平均概率的评估。
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引用次数: 7
Safety management for electromechanical systems of railway vehicles 铁道车辆机电系统安全管理
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925787
Z. Vintr, M. Vintr
This paper deals with safety management for electromechanical systems intended for railway applications. The principles and procedures presented in the article are applied in the Lekov Company which is a prominent producer of electric switching and controlling components used in the construction of railway vehicles. Considering the problems of reliability and safety carefully, the Lekov Company puts into practice the integrated safety and reliability program in the process of development, design and production. This article presents a concise characterization of the implemented safety and reliability integrated program which ensures that in the process of development, design and production of new electromechanical equipment, the defined requirements concerning reliability, availability, maintainability and safety will be fulfilled. Due to the limited space for his article, the authors present that part of Lekov's integrated program that pertains primarily to an effective system safety assurance process. The main methods, which are used as parts of the program, are Preliminary Hazard Analysis, Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis and Reliability Block Diagram Analysis. The methods are used in individual steps that logically connect methods each to other. The article describes the procedures of the program and brings a survey of applied methods with characterizations. Particular attention is devoted to problems that are associated with safety management. The implemented reliability and safety program, even if using relatively simple methods, systematically ensures the fulfillment of the customer's requirements for reliability and safety of the system. The logically linked steps taken before the design stage ensure that the engineering design will be carried out effectively, with an emphasis on fulfillment of the given requirements. The design reliability is then checked out by a reliability assessment that precedes the prototype production. This procedure minimizes the possibility of producing a prototype with a structural defect. Prototype reliability tests detect problems which can be corrected and this decreases the probability of occurrence for significant or critical problems in the systems produced in production.
本文讨论了铁路机电系统的安全管理问题。本文介绍的原理和程序应用于列科夫公司,该公司是铁路车辆结构中使用的电气开关和控制部件的著名生产商。列科夫公司仔细考虑了可靠性和安全性问题,在开发、设计和生产过程中实施了安全可靠性一体化方案。本文简要介绍了在新型机电设备的开发、设计和生产过程中所实施的安全与可靠性综合方案,该方案确保了在可靠性、可用性、可维护性和安全性方面的规定要求得到满足。由于空间有限,他的文章,作者提出,部分列科夫的综合方案,主要涉及到一个有效的系统安全保证过程。主要方法有初步危害分析、失效模式分析、影响与临界分析、故障树分析和可靠性方框图分析。这些方法在逻辑上将各个方法相互连接起来的各个步骤中使用。本文介绍了该程序的程序,并介绍了应用方法的概况和特征。特别关注与安全管理有关的问题。实施的可靠性和安全性方案,即使使用相对简单的方法,也能系统地保证满足客户对系统可靠性和安全性的要求。在设计阶段之前采取的逻辑关联的步骤确保工程设计将有效地进行,重点是满足给定的要求。然后在原型生产之前通过可靠性评估检查设计可靠性。这个程序最大限度地减少了生产具有结构缺陷的原型的可能性。原型可靠性测试可以检测出可以纠正的问题,从而降低生产系统中出现重大或关键问题的可能性。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
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