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2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium最新文献

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Optimal software release time determination with risk constraint 风险约束下最优软件发布时间的确定
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925828
Bo Yang, Huajun Hu, Jun Zhou
For a software development project, when to stop testing the software and release it for operation is of great importance as it impacts both the software reliability and the total cost of the project. Software release time determination, therefore, has attracted a lot of research in the past two decades and several new cost models have been developed in the literature recently. In most research on this topic, the approach taken is to minimize the expected total cost (ETC) of the software project, or further consider the software reliability requirement. However, because the actual total cost (ATC) of the software project is a random variable, minimization of the ETC does not guarantee that the ATC will be near this minimum. In fact, there exists certain risk that the ATC may exceed the ETC to an intolerable extent, which, despite its importance, has not been addressed in most related research. In this paper, we study the above mentioned risk problem for software release time determination and propose a new approach which could be helpful for management to control the risk of the project being over-budget. A numerical example is given to illustrate the solution procedures of the proposed approach.
对于一个软件开发项目来说,何时停止测试软件并发布它进行操作是非常重要的,因为它既影响软件的可靠性,也影响项目的总成本。因此,软件发布时间的确定在过去二十年中吸引了大量的研究,最近在文献中开发了几个新的成本模型。在大多数关于这个主题的研究中,所采取的方法是最小化软件项目的预期总成本(ETC),或者进一步考虑软件可靠性需求。然而,由于软件项目的实际总成本(ATC)是一个随机变量,ETC的最小化并不能保证ATC将接近这个最小值。事实上,ATC存在一定的风险,可能会超过ETC到无法忍受的程度,尽管这一点很重要,但在大多数相关研究中并没有得到解决。本文对软件发布时间确定中的上述风险问题进行了研究,并提出了一种新的方法来帮助管理层控制项目的超支风险。最后给出了一个数值算例来说明该方法的求解过程。
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引用次数: 5
Use of heritage data and other partially applicable information in reliability prediction of systems under development 在开发中的系统可靠性预测中使用传统数据和其他部分适用的信息
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925799
E. Droguett, A. Mosleh
This paper presents a methodology for the reliability assessment of systems under development. The methodology employs Bayesian data analysis techniques to estimate reliability measures based on various types of data such as warranty data, test data, and engineering judgments regarding the impact of design changes on the system reliability. It also provides the possibility of incorporating evidence concerning previous revisions of the same system or even information on systems that are only similar to the one under development. The methodology is validated against observed failure data from a diagnostic medical system. An example of application in the context of the automotive industry is presented as well.
本文提出了一种对正在开发的系统进行可靠性评估的方法。该方法采用贝叶斯数据分析技术,根据各种类型的数据(如保修数据、测试数据和有关设计更改对系统可靠性影响的工程判断)来估计可靠性度量。它还提供了一种可能性,即纳入关于同一系统以前修订的证据,甚至是关于与正在开发的系统相似的系统的资料。该方法通过对诊断性医疗系统观察到的故障数据进行验证。并给出了在汽车工业中的应用实例。
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引用次数: 2
Optimal highway maintenance policies under uncertainty 不确定条件下的最优公路养护政策
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925764
B. Castanier, T. Yeung
We develop an inspection and maintenance policy to minimize the cost of maintaining a given section of road or highway when there is a great deal of uncertainty in the degradation process. We propose to model the degradation of a section of road based on the proliferation and growth of cracks. We utilize a combination of a Poisson and gamma process to account for the tremendous amount of uncertainty and difficulty in predicting the proliferation of cracks. Our policy defines the optimal inspection interval as well as the minimum threshold at which to perform crack repairs. Furthermore, our policy contains a safety constraint to prevent the probability of a ldquocatastrophicrdquo failure from exceeding a pre-determined reliability value. Numerical calculations have shown that our model will extend the lifecycle of the road by performing preventive, conditioned-based maintenance to slow down the growth of cracks. Classical preventive maintenance policies usually shorten the lifecycle by forcing earlier renewals.
当退化过程中存在大量不确定性时,我们制定了检查和维护政策,以最大限度地降低维护特定路段的成本。我们建议基于裂缝的扩散和增长来模拟一段道路的退化。我们利用泊松过程和伽玛过程的组合来解释预测裂纹扩散的巨大不确定性和困难。我们的政策定义了最佳检查间隔以及执行裂纹修复的最小阈值。此外,我们的策略包含一个安全约束,以防止非灾难性故障的概率超过预先确定的可靠性值。数值计算表明,我们的模型将通过执行预防性、有条件的维护来延长道路的生命周期,以减缓裂缝的增长。传统的预防性维护策略通常通过强制提前更新来缩短生命周期。
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引用次数: 10
Assessment of launch vehicle debris risk during ascent aborts 上升中止过程中运载火箭碎片风险评估
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/rams.2008.4925772
K. Gee, D. Mathias
In the event of a space launch vehicle explosion during ascent, the debris field generated by the explosion poses a risk to the crew. To evaluate this risk, a model of the debris environment was created and used to determine the probability of a debris strike on the crew module. The model uses experimental data to determine the initial debris field due to a launch vehicle explosion and computes the trajectory of each piece of debris. The trajectory of the crew module after the abort is also computed. The relative position of the debris field and the crew module is determined as a function of time after abort and explosion. A debris flux about the crew module is computed based on this information. The debris flux is used to compute the probability of a debris strike on the crew module using the Poisson distribution. The effect of system and model parameters - such as warning time, the number of debris pieces and abort system thrust- on the debris strike probability is assessed.
如果航天运载火箭在上升过程中发生爆炸,爆炸产生的碎片区会对乘员构成威胁。为了评估这种风险,创建了一个碎片环境模型,并用于确定碎片撞击乘员舱的概率。该模型利用实验数据确定运载火箭爆炸产生的初始碎片场,并计算每块碎片的轨迹。中止后乘员舱的轨迹也被计算出来。碎片场和乘员舱的相对位置作为中止和爆炸后时间的函数确定。乘员舱周围的碎片通量是根据这些信息计算出来的。碎片通量用于利用泊松分布计算碎片撞击乘员舱的概率。评估了预警时间、碎片数量和中止系统推力等系统参数和模型参数对碎片撞击概率的影响。
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引用次数: 8
Simulation assisted risk assessment applied to launch vehicle conceptual design 仿真辅助风险评估在运载火箭概念设计中的应用
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925773
D. Mathias, S. Go, K. Gee, S. Lawrence
A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.
提出了一种基于仿真的风险评估方法,并将其应用于空间探测任务上升阶段的中止分析。该方法利用了运载火箭故障的分组,称为故障箱,它被映射到相应的故障环境。物理模型用于描述爆炸超压风险、产生的碎片场和火球引起的热辐射等失效环境。通过结合每个故障的可能性、故障环境的严重程度作为启动器和故障时间的函数、机组模块的鲁棒性以及由于早期检测而可用的警告时间,对机组人员产生的风险进行动态建模。该方法通过描述风险驱动因素和识别故障检测将显著降低机组人员风险的区域来支持运载火箭设计过程。
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引用次数: 14
The impact of reliability requirements on development life cycle 可靠性需求对开发生命周期的影响
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925813
N. Bidokhti
This paper will discuss the importance of defining reliability and availability requirements upfront and its role in product development life cycle. In addition, it will review how to trace the requirements throughout the product life cycle. In designing a new product, much time and effort is spent defining time to market and functional requirements. In the mean time there is usually less attention paid to reliability, availability and fault management requirements. Therefore, defining clear product reliability & availability requirements becomes an afterthought, or it is only modeled once the product architecture is completed. At the first glance it makes sense, since the design team may not be familiar with reliability, availability and fault management requirements. The team tends to address the functional requirements before any other types of requirements. This is the natural course of action; however this type of thought process will lend itself to building a less desirable product. Knowing these facts, how do we address this necessary and important aspect of a product design as early in the development life cycle process as possible?
本文将讨论预先定义可靠性和可用性需求的重要性及其在产品开发生命周期中的作用。此外,它将回顾如何在整个产品生命周期中跟踪需求。在设计新产品时,需要花费大量的时间和精力来定义上市时间和功能需求。同时,对可靠性、可用性和故障管理需求的关注通常较少。因此,定义清晰的产品可靠性和可用性需求成为事后的想法,或者只有在产品架构完成后才对其进行建模。乍一看,这是有道理的,因为设计团队可能不熟悉可靠性、可用性和故障管理需求。团队倾向于在任何其他类型的需求之前解决功能需求。这是自然的行动过程;然而,这种思维过程可能会导致构建出不那么理想的产品。了解了这些事实,我们如何在开发生命周期过程的早期处理产品设计中这个必要且重要的方面呢?
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引用次数: 2
Development of a design-for-reliability method for complex systems 复杂系统可靠性设计方法的发展
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925791
G. Poncelin, Jean-Pierre P. Derain, A. Cauvin, D. Dufrene
Nowadays, industrial competition is based on the Total Cost Ownership of the products (TCO). This is particularly true for big complex systems such as helicopters, for which the maintenance costs, often take the largest part of this TCO. Thus the challenge for such integrators is to invest in reliability engineering projects aimed at increasing their product's reliability to market them with the lowest TCO. To do so, industrialists need tools allowing them to predict the gain on products TCO realized with the development of reliability increasing projects during the design phase. Because of the complexity of the reliability parameter, the existing reliability engineering tools are not directly applicable and require to be adapted for a complete and direct exploitation in industry.
当前,产业竞争的基础是产品的总成本拥有量(TCO)。对于像直升机这样的大型复杂系统来说尤其如此,因为维护成本通常占据TCO的最大部分。因此,这些集成商面临的挑战是投资于旨在提高产品可靠性的可靠性工程项目,以最低的TCO向市场推销产品。要做到这一点,实业家需要工具,使他们能够预测在设计阶段可靠性提高项目的发展中实现的产品TCO收益。由于可靠性参数的复杂性,现有的可靠性工程工具不能直接适用,需要对其进行调整,以便在工业上进行完整和直接的开发。
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引用次数: 5
Application of generalized linear models for optimizing production stress testing 广义线性模型在优化生产应力测试中的应用
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925806
B. Honari, J. Donovan, T. Joyce, S. Wilson
Accelerated environmental stress tests (EST) are applied during the manufacturing process to improve reliability by precipitating and detecting latent defects. This test represents an in-process manufacturing screen and the objective of performing it is to avoid early field failures that reduce the customer satisfaction level and increase warranty and compensation costs. Temperature cycling during EST is one of the most commonly used test procedures. Although it is an expensive and energy intensive procedure, usually a lengthy test is initially recommended for a new product. Based on the product test performance or a possible manufacturing process modification, the test duration and regime may be changed after some period. Even if the number of test cycles is reduced, EST continues to be an expensive test and a major process bottleneck. This paper uses generalized linear modeling (GLM) to investigate the effects of the production and EST test variables on the population under test. Both the number of units rejected and the time to failure can be modeled as a regression function of covariates representative of the test environment. The field reliability function is written as a product of the unconditional reliability in each segment of the test profile such as dwell, ramp, etc. The next step is to apply the result of the temperature cycle EST GLM to a mathematical cost model. This cost model includes both the test cost and the warranty and compensation costs of the early field failures. The optimum test regime and number of cycles, which minimizes the total cost is determined by combining the GLM and the cost model. In this way the production test regime can be optimized in terms of field reliability/test cost trade-off.
在制造过程中采用加速环境压力测试(EST),通过沉淀和检测潜在缺陷来提高可靠性。该测试代表了过程中的制造筛选,执行它的目标是避免降低客户满意度并增加保修和补偿成本的早期现场故障。EST期间的温度循环是最常用的测试程序之一。虽然这是一个昂贵和能源密集的过程,通常最初建议对新产品进行长时间的测试。根据产品测试性能或可能的制造工艺修改,测试持续时间和制度可能在一段时间后改变。即使测试周期的数量减少了,EST仍然是一个昂贵的测试和主要的过程瓶颈。本文采用广义线性模型(GLM)研究了产量和EST测试变量对被测群体的影响。拒绝单元的数量和失败的时间都可以建模为代表测试环境的协变量的回归函数。现场可靠性函数被写成测试剖面中每个部分(如驻留、斜坡等)的无条件可靠性的乘积。下一步是将温度循环EST - GLM的结果应用于数学成本模型。该成本模型既包括测试成本,也包括早期现场故障的保证和补偿成本。结合GLM和成本模型,确定了使总成本最小的最优测试方案和周期数。通过这种方式,可以根据现场可靠性/测试成本的权衡来优化生产测试制度。
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引用次数: 7
Optimizing the number of failure modes for design analysis based on physics of failure 基于失效物理的失效模式数量优化设计分析
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925789
V. Loll
Design for reliability requires a different approach from failure reporting and corrective action system (FRACAS) and test, analyze and fix (TAAF) both of which are tools for reliability improvement of already designed hardware. The physics of failure analysis approach should be used focusing on each failure mode separately. Through a step by step design analysis and test process, the number of potential failure modes should be reduced. As many failure modes as possible should be mitigated by appropriate design changes and the remaining failure modes should be controlled through adequate design stress vs. strength margins. The failure modes with insufficient margins (meaning high likelihood of occurrence in the time of interest) should be extensively analyzed and tested to ensure that they do not contribute to an unacceptable number of failures in the field. The use of this method requires that the equipment manufacturer also actively collect and list failure modes for previous products as well as for components, materials and processes.
可靠性设计需要不同于故障报告和纠正措施系统(FRACAS)和测试、分析和修复(TAAF)的方法,这两种方法都是提高已设计硬件可靠性的工具。失效分析的物理方法应分别关注每种失效模式。通过一步一步的设计分析和试验过程,应减少潜在失效模式的数量。尽可能多的失效模式应该通过适当的设计变更来减轻,剩余的失效模式应该通过足够的设计应力与强度裕度来控制。对于余量不足的失效模式(即在相关时间内发生的可能性很高),应进行广泛的分析和测试,以确保它们不会导致现场不可接受的故障数量。使用这种方法要求设备制造商也积极收集和列出以前产品以及部件,材料和工艺的失效模式。
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引用次数: 2
Dynamic model for assessing impact of regeneration actions on system availability: Application to weapon systems 评估再生行动对系统可用性影响的动态模型:在武器系统中的应用
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925801
M. Monnin, B. Iung, O. Sénéchal, P. Lelan
Availability is a determining factor in systems characterization. Because military systems must act in a hostile environment, they are particularly vulnerable in situations of unavailability. Military weapon systems can become unavailable due to system failures or damage to the system; in both cases, system regeneration is needed to restore availability. However, very few of the general dependability studies or even the more specific availability studies take battlefield damage into account. This paper aims to define principles for weapon systems modeling that integrate both system failure and system damage, as well as the possibility of regeneration, into operational availability assessment. This modeling method uses a unified failure/damage approach based on state-space modeling.
可用性是系统表征中的决定性因素。由于军事系统必须在敌对环境中行动,它们在无法使用的情况下特别脆弱。军事武器系统可能由于系统故障或系统损坏而无法使用;在这两种情况下,都需要系统再生来恢复可用性。然而,很少有一般的可靠性研究或更具体的可用性研究将战场伤害考虑在内。本文旨在定义武器系统建模的原则,将系统故障和系统损坏以及再生的可能性集成到作战可用性评估中。该建模方法采用基于状态空间建模的统一失效/损伤方法。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
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