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2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium最新文献

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System reliability evaluation using normalized test data 使用标准化测试数据进行系统可靠性评估
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925797
J.B. Farmer, P. Ellner
Reliability is the probability that a system will perform its intended function for a specified period of time in a specified environment. Often, the reliability of a system cannot be directly measured through test to compare against its requirement because of programmatic constraints on testing. In cases where testing cannot adhere exactly to the defined mission profile, it is necessary to normalize the resulting test data to evaluate reliability performance against the system requirement. This paper describes the application of normalization techniques to reliability test data on the marine corps expeditionary fighting vehicle (EFV) program.
可靠性是系统在规定的环境下,在规定的时间内执行其预期功能的概率。通常,由于对测试的编程限制,系统的可靠性不能直接通过测试来与需求进行比较。在测试不能完全遵循定义的任务轮廓的情况下,有必要对结果测试数据进行规范化,以根据系统需求评估可靠性性能。介绍了归一化技术在海军陆战队远征战车(EFV)可靠性试验数据中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
What's wrong with bent pin analysis, and what to do about it 弯针分析有什么问题,该怎么做
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925827
N. Ozarin
Bent pin analysis is an important kind of failure modes and effects analysis that almost always ignores real-world behavior. The somewhat undisciplined nature of this FMEA means there is heavy reliance on human judgment, and given the particularly tedious nature of the task, the results are typically both incomplete and inaccurate. The analysis also provides oversimplified predictions of failure rates based on averages, or omits them entirely. However, carefully defining analysis rules that more realistically reflect real-world events make it possible for a computer to perform a great deal of the task with far more accuracy. Using these rules, the computer can determine individual failure rates for each permutation of short and open circuits. The computer can also go beyond these computations and do a great deal of additional analysis work, freeing humans to concentrate on circuits and systems instead of pins and wires. Finally, the computer can automatically supply repeated worksheet information - and bent pin FMEA worksheets have a lot of it - so that you never need to enter anything more than once. The result is a far more accurate, consistent, and complete analysis requiring much less effort. It brings bent pin analysis into the 21st century.
弯销分析是一种重要的失效模式和影响分析,几乎总是忽略实际行为。这种FMEA有些散漫的性质意味着严重依赖于人类的判断,并且考虑到任务特别繁琐的性质,结果通常既不完整又不准确。该分析还提供了基于平均值的过于简化的故障率预测,或者完全省略了故障率。然而,仔细定义更真实地反映现实世界事件的分析规则,使计算机能够以更高的准确性执行大量任务。利用这些规则,计算机可以确定每种短路和开路排列的个别故障率。计算机还可以超越这些计算,做大量额外的分析工作,使人类把精力集中在电路和系统上,而不是针脚和电线上。最后,计算机可以自动提供重复的工作表信息-和弯曲引脚FMEA工作表有很多-所以你永远不需要输入任何东西超过一次。结果是一个更加准确、一致和完整的分析,需要更少的努力。它将弯销分析带入了21世纪。
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引用次数: 6
A systems reliability approach to decision making in autonomous multi-platform systems operating a phased mission 自主多平台系统分阶段任务决策的系统可靠性方法
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925761
J. Andrews, D. Prescott, R. Remenyte-Prescott
This paper presents a decision making strategy for autonomous multi-platform systems, wherein a number of platforms perform phased missions in order to achieve an overall mission objective. Phased missions are defined for both single and multi-platform systems and a decision making strategy is outlined for such systems. The requirements for a tool performing such a strategy are discussed and methods and techniques, traditionally used for system reliability assessment, are identified to fulfill these requirements. Two examples are presented in order to demonstrate how a decision making tool would be employed in practice. Finally, a brief discussion of the efficient implementation of such a strategy is presented.
本文提出了一种自主多平台系统的决策策略,其中多个平台执行阶段性任务以实现总体任务目标。为单平台和多平台系统定义了阶段性任务,并概述了这类系统的决策策略。本文讨论了执行这种策略的工具的需求,并确定了传统上用于系统可靠性评估的方法和技术,以满足这些需求。为了演示如何在实践中使用决策工具,提出了两个例子。最后,简要讨论了该策略的有效实施。
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引用次数: 19
Probabilistic common-cause failures analysis 概率共因故障分析
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925821
L. Xing, Wendai Wang
Common-cause failures (CCF) are simultaneous failures of multiple components within a system due to a common-cause or a shared root cause. CCF can contribute significantly to the overall system unreliability. Therefore, it is important to incorporate CCF into the system reliability analysis. Traditional CCF analyses have assumed that the occurrence of a common-cause results in the deterministic/guaranteed failure of components affected by that common-cause. In practical systems, however, the occurrence of a common-cause may result into failures of different components with different probabilities of occurrence. This behavior is termed as probabilistic CCF (PCCF). In this paper, we present a combinatorial method for the reliability analysis of systems subject to PCCF. The approach is represented in a dynamic fault tree model by a proposed probabilistic CCF gate. Basics of the proposed approach and effects of PCCF on the system reliability are illustrated through the detailed quantitative analysis of an example system.
共因故障(CCF)是指由于共同原因或共同根本原因导致系统内多个组件同时发生故障。CCF对整个系统的不可靠性有很大的影响。因此,将CCF纳入系统可靠性分析是十分重要的。传统的CCF分析假设共同原因的发生导致受该共同原因影响的组件的确定性/保证失效。然而,在实际系统中,一个共因的发生可能导致不同部件以不同的发生概率发生故障。这种行为被称为概率CCF (PCCF)。本文提出了一种组合方法来分析受PCCF影响的系统的可靠性。该方法通过提出的概率CCF门在动态故障树模型中表示。通过一个实例系统的详细定量分析,说明了该方法的基本原理和PCCF对系统可靠性的影响。
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引用次数: 25
A unified model for evaluating the safety integrity level of safety instrumented systems 安全仪表系统安全完整性水平评价的统一模型
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925784
J. Bukowski
This paper proposes a new figure of merit (FOM) for evaluating safety integrity levels (SIL) for safety instrumented systems (SIS). Currently, SIL ratings are based on two separate tables - one for low process demands and one for high process demands. The proposed FOM, probability of an accident as a function of time, PAC(t), unifies the two separate tables into a single table and extends the concept of risk reduction factor (RRF), which is currently only defined for low demand applications, to high demand applications as well. Using PAC(t) as the new FOM explicitly includes the process demand rate in the model and therefore, permits the effects of different demand rates on the safety performance of a specific SIS to be quantified. The model also allows for the inclusion of diagnostic coverage and on-line repair so that the effects of these parameters can also be quantified. Finally, using PAC(t), the maximum time of periodic inspection (TI) permitted before the SIS moves to a lower SIL rating can be easily calculated. A number of examples illustrate the application and usefulness of PAC(t) as the defining FOM for SIL evaluation.
本文提出了一种评价安全仪表系统(SIS)安全完整性水平(SIL)的新优点图(FOM)。目前,SIL评级基于两个独立的表——一个用于低过程要求,另一个用于高过程要求。建议的FOM(事故概率作为时间的函数PAC(t))将两个独立的表统一为一个表,并将风险降低因子(RRF)的概念(目前仅为低需求应用程序定义)扩展到高需求应用程序。使用PAC(t)作为新的FOM明确地将过程需求率包括在模型中,因此,允许对特定SIS的不同需求率的安全性能的影响进行量化。该模型还允许包括诊断覆盖率和在线修复,以便这些参数的影响也可以量化。最后,使用PAC(t),可以很容易地计算出SIS移动到较低SIL额定值之前允许的定期检查(TI)的最长时间。许多例子说明了PAC(t)作为SIL评估的定义表单的应用和有用性。
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引用次数: 3
An age-adjusted comparison of field failure data for repairable systems 可修系统现场故障数据的年龄调整比较
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925769
T. Halim, L. Tang
The conventional calendar-based mean cumulative function (MCF) plot is useful in monitoring the field reliability of a population of repairable systems deployed in a large quantity. It is simple and easily understood by management. However, it is age-confounded when the system population is heterogeneous with age. Assuming that the systems follow the well-known ldquoBathtubrdquo behavior, the population which consists of a higher proportion of aged systems will perform badly on the MCF plot compared to another population made up of mainly newer systems. Hence, direct comparisons between the two populations may not be fair. This paper illustrates a few simple steps that aid in mitigating such age heterogeneity issue prior to plotting the MCF. The age-adjusted MCF allows a fairer comparison of maintenance performance between the populations. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated using actual field failure data. The case study shows that if differences in system age compositions are not accounted for, different conclusions could be drawn which could be detrimental to the maintenance personnel morale. Worse still, precious maintenance resources might be channeled to the wrong location. Other than age, the proposed approach can be easily extended to adjust for other system attributes.
传统的基于日历的平均累积函数(MCF)图对于监测大量部署的可修系统的现场可靠性是有用的。它简单易懂,易于管理人员理解。然而,当系统人口随年龄异质性时,它是年龄混淆的。假设系统遵循众所周知的ldquathtubrdquo行为,与主要由新系统组成的种群相比,由较高比例的老化系统组成的种群在MCF图上的表现较差。因此,直接比较这两个群体可能是不公平的。本文阐述了几个简单的步骤,有助于在绘制MCF之前减轻这种年龄异质性问题。年龄调整后的MCF可以更公平地比较不同人群的维护性能。通过现场实际故障数据验证了该方法的适用性。案例研究表明,如果不考虑系统年龄组成的差异,可能会得出不同的结论,这可能会损害维护人员的士气。更糟糕的是,宝贵的维护资源可能会被输送到错误的位置。除了年龄,建议的方法可以很容易地扩展到调整其他系统属性。
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引用次数: 1
An approach for estimating the reliability of transmission oils 一种估计传动油可靠性的方法
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925807
C. Maisch, B. Bertsche, B. Hohn, H. Otto
This paper deals with an approach for estimating the reliability of transmission oils. Forecasting oil degradation, especially oil oxidation allows to adjust the right oil change intervals in order to save costs and expand the transmission's lifetime. A brief overview about the machine component transmission oil imparts fundamental knowledge. Afterwards definitions of oil failures and combining them to an oil failure system are explained. The oil lifetime line describes the relationship between possible oil temperature and oil lifetime. Such a line is the keystone in order to describe the oil's failure behavior caused by oil oxidation. That's why two approaches are presented to derive an oil lifetime line. Both approaches use a certain oil failure criteria explained in the paper. The first approach is based on the pitting damage accumulation hypothesis. This hypothesis is expanded with the effect of oil degradation what enables to derive an oil lifetime line out of the results of a back-to-back spur gear rig test. Second a General Log Linear Model is used with available data to estimate the gears pitting lifetime depending on oil degradation. With the defined oil failure criteria it was possible to derive an oil lifetime line for mineral oil based fluids. Further work will include the estimation of an oil lifetime line with a probability and confidence intervals. Synthetic oil based fluids need to be investigated more intensive in order to create a suitable oil lifetime line for such fluids.
本文讨论了一种评估传动油可靠性的方法。预测油的降解,特别是油的氧化,可以调整正确的换油间隔,以节省成本并延长变速器的使用寿命。简要介绍机器部件传动油的基本知识。然后解释了油故障的定义以及将它们结合到一个油故障系统中。油寿命线描述了可能的油温与油寿命之间的关系。这条线是描述油品氧化失效行为的关键。这就是为什么提出了两种方法来推导油的寿命线。这两种方法都使用了文中解释的一定的油失效准则。第一种方法基于点蚀损伤累积假说。这一假设在油退化的影响下得到了扩展,这使得从背靠背正齿轮钻机试验的结果中得出了油的寿命线。其次,利用一般对数线性模型和现有数据估计齿轮的点蚀寿命取决于油的退化。根据确定的油失效标准,可以推导出矿物油基流体的油寿命线。进一步的工作将包括用概率和置信区间估计油的寿命线。需要对合成油基流体进行更深入的研究,以便为此类流体制定合适的油寿命线。
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引用次数: 0
A methodology for managing reliability growth during operational mission profile testing 一种在作战任务剖面测试过程中管理可靠性增长的方法
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925768
L. H. Crow
It is common practice for systems to be subjective to operational testing during their development program. The objective of this testing is to evaluate the performance, including reliability, of the system under conditions that represent actual use conditions. Because of expense, resources, schedule, and other considerations, these operational tests rarely represent exactly the actual use conditions. Rather, stated mission profile conditions are specific for the operational testing. These mission profiles conditions are typically general statements that guide the testing on an average basis during the testing. Because of practical constraints the elements that make up the mission profile conditions are typically tested under varying schedules with the intent that on average the mission profile conditions are met. It is also common practice that reliability corrective actions are incorporated into the system during this type of testing. That is, the test is often an operational mission profile reliability growth test. Under these conditions, we usually have a lack of structure for managing the elements that make up the mission profiles, which makes it very difficult to have an agreed-on methodology for estimating the system's reliability. This is especially true if reliability growth is occurring. Many systems fail operational testing because key assessments parameters can not be made in a straightforward clear manner so that management can take timely and appropriate action. This paper addresses this issue and presents a methodology currently being applied on major Department of Defense programs for operational reliability growth testing.
在系统的开发计划中,系统对操作测试是主观的,这是常见的做法。该测试的目的是评估系统在代表实际使用条件下的性能,包括可靠性。由于费用、资源、进度和其他考虑因素,这些操作测试很少准确地表示实际使用条件。相反,所陈述的任务轮廓条件是具体用于操作测试的。这些任务概况条件是典型的一般性陈述,在测试期间以平均为基础指导测试。由于实际限制,构成任务剖面条件的要素通常在不同的时间表下进行测试,目的是平均满足任务剖面条件。在这种类型的测试中,将可靠性纠正措施纳入系统也是常见的做法。也就是说,测试通常是操作任务轮廓可靠性增长测试。在这些条件下,我们通常缺乏管理组成任务概况的元素的结构,这使得很难有一个一致同意的方法来估计系统的可靠性。在可靠性增长的情况下尤其如此。许多系统未能通过操作测试,因为关键评估参数不能以直接明确的方式进行,以便管理层能够及时采取适当的行动。本文解决了这一问题,并提出了一种目前正在国防部主要项目中用于作战可靠性增长测试的方法。
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引用次数: 12
Uncertainty in Life Cycle Cost of railway track 铁路轨道全寿命周期成本的不确定性
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925767
A. P. Patra, P. Soderholm, U. Kumar
Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is used as a cost effective decision support for maintenance of railway track infrastructure. However, a fair degree of uncertainty associated with the estimation of LCC is due to the statistical characteristics of Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) parameters. This paper illustrates a methodology for estimation of uncertainty linked with LCC, by a combination of Design of Experiment (DoE) and Monte Carlo simulation. The paper also includes developed maintenance cost models for track and a case study of Banverket (Swedish National Rail Administration).
将全寿命周期成本(LCC)作为铁路轨道基础设施维护的一种具有成本效益的决策支持。然而,与LCC估计相关的相当程度的不确定性是由于可靠性、可用性和可维护性(RAM)参数的统计特征。本文将实验设计(DoE)和蒙特卡罗模拟相结合,阐述了一种与LCC相关的不确定性估计方法。本文还包括已开发的轨道维护成本模型和Banverket(瑞典国家铁路局)的案例研究。
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引用次数: 1
A case study on network reliability analysis for systems with non-independent paths 非独立路径系统的网络可靠性分析实例研究
Pub Date : 2008-01-28 DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2008.4925779
Meng-Lai Yin, R. Arellano
The problem addressed here is the complexity in reliability modeling for network systems with non-independent paths. Dependency usually is dealt with models with high fidelity and high complexity, which leads to the difficulties in model construction and solution. A pivoting method is proposed here to effectively handle the complexity. The presentation starts from the discussion of independent cases, where combinatorial approach such as reliability block diagram method can be applied. Networks with non-independent paths are then addressed, with the pivoting method applied. This approach is applicable to modeling complex systems beyond the example presented here, i.e., network systems with non-independent paths. Any system with components that cause the dependencies can be analyzed using the approach proposed.
这里要解决的问题是具有非独立路径的网络系统可靠性建模的复杂性。依赖关系通常是处理高保真度和高复杂性的模型,这给模型的构建和求解带来了困难。本文提出了一种有效处理复杂性的旋转方法。本文从独立案例的讨论出发,在这些案例中,可以采用组合方法,如可靠性方框图法。然后,使用旋转方法对具有非独立路径的网络进行寻址。这种方法适用于这里给出的示例之外的复杂系统的建模,即具有非独立路径的网络系统。任何具有导致依赖关系的组件的系统都可以使用所提出的方法进行分析。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
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