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How the United States Marched the Semiconductor Industry into its Trade War with China 美国如何将半导体产业带入与中国的贸易战
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.384
C. Bown
The US-China trade war forced a reluctant semiconductor industry into someone else’s fight, a very different position from its leading role in the 1980s trade conflict with Japan. This paper describes how the political economy of the global semiconductor industry has evolved since the 1980s. That includes both a shift in the business model behind how semiconductors go from conception to a finished product as well as the geographic reorientation toward Asia of demand and manufactured supply. It uses that lens to explain how, during the modern conflict with China, US policymakers turned to a legally complex set of export restrictions targeting the semiconductor supply chain in the attempt to safeguard critical infrastructure in the telecommunications sector. The potentially far-reaching tactics included weaponization of exports by relatively small but highly specialized American software service and equipment providers in order to constrain Huawei, a Fortune Global 500 company. It describes potential costs of such policies, some of their unintended consequences, and whether policymakers might push them further in the attempt to constrain other Chinese firms.
美中贸易战迫使一个不情愿的半导体行业卷入了别人的战斗,这与它在上世纪80年代与日本的贸易冲突中扮演的主导角色截然不同。本文描述了自20世纪80年代以来全球半导体产业的政治经济是如何演变的。这既包括半导体从概念到成品背后的商业模式的转变,也包括需求和制造供应向亚洲的地理重新定位。它用这一视角来解释,在与中国的现代冲突中,美国政策制定者如何转向针对半导体供应链的一系列法律复杂的出口限制,以保护电信行业的关键基础设施。潜在影响深远的策略包括,由规模相对较小但高度专业化的美国软件服务和设备提供商将出口武器化,以限制华为这家《财富》全球500强企业。它描述了这些政策的潜在成本,一些意想不到的后果,以及政策制定者是否会进一步推动这些政策,以试图限制其他中国公司。
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引用次数: 26
Modeling the Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers in Services on Intra-African Trade: GTAP Model 服务业非关税壁垒对非洲内部贸易影响的建模:GTAP模型
Pub Date : 2020-11-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3771993
Amara Zongo
This paper examines the effects of African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade in the medium- and long-term, focusing on trade in services. It assesses the impacts of a 50% reduction of non-tariff barriers in four services sectors on bilateral trade in services between ECOWAS (Economic Organization of West African States) and SADC (Southern African Development Community) areas. Using the GTAP model and ad valorem equivalents of services restrictions, we find that services liberalization stimulates GDP and household income in both trading blocks. Bilateral trade in financial, transport, professional, and telecommunication services increases between the two trading blocks and the effects are significant in the long run. SADC member countries export more financial services as a result of ECOWAS macroeconomic and financial integration. ECOWAS benefits from the quality of SADC infrastructures to rise its exports of transport and telecommunication services. South Africa is the biggest exporter in the SADC region and Ghana and Nigeria share the top position in ECOWAS area. Liberalization has beneficial effects on trade only if it is combined with supporting policies aimed at stimulating domestic competition in services sectors.
本文考察了非洲大陆自由贸易协定(AfCFTA)对非洲内部贸易的中长期影响,重点是服务贸易。它评估了四个服务部门非关税壁垒减少50%对西非国家经济组织(ECOWAS)和南部非洲发展共同体(SADC)地区之间双边服务贸易的影响。利用GTAP模型和服务限制的从价等价物,我们发现服务自由化刺激了两个贸易区的GDP和家庭收入。双方在金融、运输、专业和电信服务方面的双边贸易增加,其长期影响是显著的。由于西非经共体的宏观经济和金融一体化,南部非洲发展共同体成员国出口更多的金融服务。西非经共体受益于南共体基础设施的质量,以增加其运输和电信服务的出口。南非是南部非洲发展共同体地区最大的出口国,加纳和尼日利亚在西非经共体地区并列第一。自由化只有与旨在刺激国内服务部门竞争的支持政策相结合,才能对贸易产生有利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Labor Share, Foreign Demand and Superstar Exporters 劳动份额,国外需求和超级明星出口商
Pub Date : 2020-11-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3646969
Ludovic Panon
This paper proposes a new determinant of labor share changes. Using micro-data on the universe of French manufacturing exporters over 1995-2007, I show that a measure of export demand growth exogenous to firm-level outcomes drives down the manufacturing labor share through two effects. First, foreign demand shocks allow low-labor share, highly internationalized “superstar” exporters to grow disproportionately more. Second, foreign demand growth decreases the labor share of exporters and this effect is stronger for larger exporters. Both effects explain 12% of the labor share decline over 1995-2000 and led to a 1.2 percentage point drop over 2000-2007. A simple model of endogenous competition with heterogeneous firms rationalizes the findings. A market size increase allows exporters to expand, which decreases their share of fixed labor cost in value-added, and increases competition on international markets. Fiercer competition favors superstar exporters, further decreasing their labor share through the fixed cost channel. Overall, these findings provide direct causal evidence of a “winner take most” phenomenon induced by trade globalization.
本文提出了一个新的决定劳动收入占比变化的决定因素。利用1995-2007年间法国制造业出口商的微观数据,我证明了出口需求增长对企业层面结果的外生度量通过两种效应降低了制造业劳动份额。首先,外国需求冲击使得劳动力份额低、高度国际化的“超级明星”出口商不成比例地增长。其次,外需增长降低了出口国的劳动收入占比,这种影响对较大的出口国更为明显。这两种效应解释了1995-2000年间12%的劳动收入占比下降,并导致2000-2007年间1.2个百分点的下降。一个与异质企业的内生竞争的简单模型合理化了这些发现。市场规模的扩大使出口商得以扩张,从而降低了固定劳动力成本在附加值中所占的份额,增加了在国际市场上的竞争。激烈的竞争有利于超级出口商,通过固定成本渠道进一步降低了他们的劳动份额。总的来说,这些发现为贸易全球化引发的“赢家通吃”现象提供了直接的因果证据。
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引用次数: 5
UA v. China Trade War: Interplay within Global Economy and Politics 美国与中国的贸易战:全球经济和政治的相互作用
Pub Date : 2020-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3735461
John Fawole
It is so germane for the growth of any country, that's the reason we can notice that the countries that are dominating are such that are well established in commerce. Seeing then the salient vitality of trade, over the years there have been "trade war" and of course, this trade war has reverberated on global politics in no small measure. Hence, this paper accords the privilege to have this topic distilled and jurisprudentially fine-tuned.
它与任何国家的发展都息息相关,这就是为什么我们可以注意到,占主导地位的国家都是在商业上建立良好的国家。鉴于贸易的显著活力,多年来一直有“贸易战”,当然,这场贸易战对全球政治产生了不小的影响。因此,本文有幸对这一话题进行提炼和法理上的微调。
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引用次数: 0
Limitations of the Use of Modernization Theory in Formulating and Implementing Development Policies in Africa – The case of Tanzania and Malawi 现代化理论在制定和实施非洲发展政策中的局限性——以坦桑尼亚和马拉维为例
Pub Date : 2020-11-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3747783
Lloyd George Banda
Despite the progress that Africa has been making in terms of economic development, many countries still face issues such as poverty, inequality, and conflict. Africa houses have plentiful economic resources. Paradoxically, the continent languishes in poverty as evidenced by high prevalence of famine, diseases and ignorance (Matunhu, 2011). For example, out of 189 countries that are ranked by UNDP Human Development Index (HDI), Seychelles – the first African country with 0.801 index is ranked 62 globally (World population Review, 2020). Again, there are only 9 countries including Seychelles that are categorized within High HDI adding Mauritius, Algeria, Tunisia, Botswana, Libya, South Africa, Gabon and Egypt. These are the only African countries out of 54 with HDI above 0.700. The point of reference in this article, Tanzania and Malawi sit 159 and 172 respectively on HDI global rank. This shows that Malawi sits 18th from the bottom. Apart from HDI, another related measure of living standard is real GDP per head. 2019 real GDP per capita shows that most African countries sit at the bottom with Tanzania and Malawi on 153 and 182 respectively. Malawi is found at 8th position shy from the bottom (worldbank.org, 2019).

This manuscript attributes the poverty and economic stagnation to theories of development because the way African society deals with underdevelopment is influenced by development theories more specifically the highly used modernization theory of development by Talcott Parson. In the explicitness of this manuscript, there is no place of blame on African countries for employing the theory rather it aims to excavate the loop holes of modernization theory in order to expose its shaky premises that makes it unworthy to be used for policy formulation and programming
尽管非洲在经济发展方面取得了进步,但许多国家仍然面临贫困、不平等和冲突等问题。非洲国家拥有丰富的经济资源。矛盾的是,非洲大陆在贫困中挣扎,饥荒、疾病和无知的高发就是明证(Matunhu, 2011年)。例如,在联合国开发计划署人类发展指数(HDI)排名的189个国家中,塞舌尔-第一个指数为0.801的非洲国家-在全球排名第62位(世界人口评论,2020年)。同样,包括塞舌尔在内,只有9个国家被归为高人类发展指数国家,另外还有毛里求斯、阿尔及利亚、突尼斯、博茨瓦纳、利比亚、南非、加蓬和埃及。这是54个国家中仅有的人类发展指数高于0.700的非洲国家。本文的参考点是坦桑尼亚和马拉维在人类发展指数全球排名中分别排在159和172位。这表明马拉维排名倒数第18位。除了人类发展指数,另一个与生活水平相关的指标是实际人均GDP。2019年实际人均GDP显示,大多数非洲国家排名垫底,坦桑尼亚和马拉维分别排名153和182。马拉维排名第8 (worldbank.org, 2019)。这份手稿将贫困和经济停滞归因于发展理论,因为非洲社会处理欠发达的方式受到发展理论的影响,更具体地说,是塔尔科特·帕森(Talcott Parson)高度使用的现代化发展理论。在这份手稿的明确性中,并没有责怪非洲国家采用这一理论,而是旨在挖掘现代化理论的漏洞,以暴露其不可靠的前提,使其不值得用于政策制定和规划
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引用次数: 0
The Governance of the Surabaya’s West Shipping Channel 泗水西部航道的治理
Pub Date : 2020-11-16 DOI: 10.31014/aior.1992.03.04.292
S. Anwar
The governance regarding shipping safety in the Surabaya's West Shipping Channel is very important because it affects the smoothness of movement of ships, which carry goods and passengers to the ports in Surabaya City. Due to the frequent occurrence of ship accidents in the channel, there is a possibility that these were caused by several factors related to the governance in the shipping channel. The required data was obtained from relevant informants, while other supporting information was obtained by direct observation in the field. Then the data was analyzed using descriptive qualitative method. From this analysis, it was found several findings concerning the factors causing the accident of ships in the shipping channel, namely: the technical condition of the ships, the level of professionalism of the ship's crews, natural factors, the condition of navigation aids, and installation of infrastructures in the sea. The next findings were about things that have not been achieved by the government, such as law enforcement regarding the ships’ maintenance, education and training for the ship's crew especially in handling ships’ accidents at sea, law enforcement regarding the installation of undersea infrastructures, and the installation of proper navigation aids along the shipping channel.
泗水西航道的航运安全治理非常重要,因为它影响到运送货物和乘客到泗水市港口的船舶的运动顺畅性。由于航道内船舶事故的频繁发生,这些事故有可能是由与航道治理相关的几个因素造成的。所需的数据是从有关的举报人那里获得的,而其他辅助资料则是通过在实地的直接观察获得的。然后采用描述性定性方法对数据进行分析。通过分析,得出了造成航道船舶事故的几个因素,即:船舶的技术条件、船员的专业水平、自然因素、助航设备的条件和海上基础设施的安装。接下来的调查结果是关于政府没有做到的事情,例如关于船舶维护的执法,对船员的教育和培训,特别是在处理船舶海上事故方面,关于海底基础设施安装的执法,以及沿着航运通道安装适当的导航设备。
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引用次数: 0
New Underlying Trends in China’s Cross-Border Investments 中国跨境投资的新趋势
Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3721857
David Yu
Abstract. As global macroeconomic uncertainties grow, there are notable shifts and oscillations in Chinese outbound investment and cross-border investment flows. This study shows China’s key investment characteristics including geographical preferences, investment compositions, and structural changes in industrial and foreign policies, such as Made in China 2025, financial liberalization, and OBOR. While these trends seem contradictory at times, opportunities are available for nimble and creative players who could capitalize on China’s increasing demand in the new economy (“xin jing ji ”), with adequate consideration of regulatory scrutinies. Keywords.  Cross-border, China, Outbound, Investments, Regulations. JEL. F21, F68, O53, K23 .
摘要随着全球宏观经济不确定性的增加,中国对外投资和跨境投资流动出现了明显的变化和波动。本研究显示了中国的主要投资特征,包括地理偏好、投资构成以及产业和外交政策的结构性变化,如《中国制造2025》、金融自由化和“一带一路”。虽然这些趋势有时看起来是矛盾的,但对于那些能够充分考虑监管审查、利用中国在新经济(“新经济”)中不断增长的需求的灵活而有创造力的参与者来说,机会是存在的。关键词。跨境,中国,对外,投资,法规。冻胶。F21, f68, o53, k23。
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引用次数: 0
Export Destinations and Margins of Trade: Evidence from Pakistan 出口目的地与贸易边际:来自巴基斯坦的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3718135
Zara Liaqat, Karrar Hussain
Using detailed customs data on the universe of import and export transactions from Pakistan, we attempt to empirically relate the variation in unit values of narrowly defined products to export market attributes, such as, market size and distance from the destination country. Although there is a systematic positive effect of market size on f.o.b. unit values, we discover a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the response of within-firm unit values to distance over various categories of exporters. While greater distance is associated with a lower unit price charged by exporters of multiple products as well as those using imported inputs, firms exporting only, with no domestic sales, tend to sell more expensive product varieties to distant markets. We also relate unit value adjustments to the overall volume and value of exports by firms. Our results lend support to the additive trade costs hypothesis à la Hummels and Skiba (2004) as well as within-product heterogeneity in demand elasticities à la Lashkaripour (2019), and the significance of price discrimination effects in determining spatial patterns of export prices. Furthermore, we obtain compelling evidence in favour of asymmetric effects of distance and destination country’s size over sectors.
利用巴基斯坦进出口交易领域的详细海关数据,我们试图将狭义定义产品的单位价值变化与出口市场属性(如市场规模和与目的地国的距离)联系起来。尽管市场规模对离岸价单位价值有系统性的积极影响,但我们发现,在不同类别的出口商中,企业内部单位价值对距离的反应存在很大程度的异质性。虽然距离越远,多种产品的出口商以及使用进口投入品的出口商收取的单价就越低,但只出口而没有国内销售的公司往往向遥远的市场销售更昂贵的产品品种。我们还将单位价值调整与企业出口的总体数量和价值联系起来。我们的研究结果支持了累加性贸易成本假说(Hummels and Skiba, 2004)、需求弹性的产品内异质性假说(Lashkaripour, 2019),以及价格歧视效应在决定出口价格空间格局中的重要性。此外,我们获得了令人信服的证据,支持距离和目的地国家规模对部门的不对称影响。
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引用次数: 0
Russia's Balance of Payments in Q3 2020 2020年第三季度俄罗斯国际收支
Pub Date : 2020-10-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3717909
A. Bozhechkova, P. Trunin
In Q3 2020, Russia’s favorable trade balance plunged compared to the same period last year due to a contraction in exports under a relatively stable volume of export deliveries. Nevertheless, despite a combination of the most adverse factors, current account balance remained favorable. Having said that, in July-September there was net outflow of capital that was due primarily by a reduction in financial liabilities before non-residents of other sectors of economy in the wake of raising geopolitical risks and decline in the interest of investors towards assets of developing countries.As a result, in Q3 2020, ruble’s exchange rate dropped by 14% and from the start of the year – by 29%.
2020年第三季度,在出口交付量相对稳定的情况下,由于出口萎缩,俄罗斯的贸易顺差与去年同期相比大幅下降。然而,尽管有许多不利因素,经常项目余额仍然是有利的。话虽如此,7月至9月出现了资本净流出,这主要是由于地缘政治风险上升和投资者对发展中国家资产的兴趣下降后,对其他经济部门非居民的金融负债减少。因此,在2020年第三季度,卢布汇率下跌了14%,从年初开始下跌了29%。
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引用次数: 0
China’s Investments in Africa: Does Investment Facilitation in Africa Matter? 中国对非投资:投资便利化重要吗?
Pub Date : 2020-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3714131
Ke Xia, E. Devadason
China, through its open policy, has enhanced its cooperation with Africa through outward foreign direct investments in the region’s production capacity. The paper constructs a composite investment facilitation index (and five sub-indices reflecting different types of investment facilitation) for 19 African countries spanning the 2010 to 2017 period using the entropy weight method. It then employs the investment gravity model to analyze the impact of African investment facilitation on China’s investments in the Continent. Investment facilitation levels of most African countries are found to be relatively low, except for South Africa, and Morocco. The empirical results support a significant and positive impact of investment facilitation in Africa on China’s direct investments in the former. From a disaggregated investment facilitation perspective, the application of information technology, financial services efficiency and quality of institutions are found to be significant for aiding China’s investments in Africa.
中国通过对外开放政策,通过对外直接投资加强对非产能合作。本文采用熵权法构建了2010 - 2017年19个非洲国家的综合投资便利化指数(以及反映不同投资便利化类型的5个子指数)。然后运用投资引力模型分析了非洲投资便利化对中国在非洲投资的影响。除南非和摩洛哥外,大多数非洲国家的投资便利化水平相对较低。实证结果表明,投资便利化对中国在非洲的直接投资具有显著的正向影响。从投资便利化的角度来看,信息技术的应用、金融服务的效率和机构的质量对中国在非洲的投资有重要的帮助。
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引用次数: 0
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International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal
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