Journal of Air Transport Management最新文献_第8页

Analyzing network selection competition between airlines using Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in the foresight of two steps 基于两步预见冲突解决的图模型分析航空公司网络选择竞争

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102893

Shawei He , Peng Sun , Jiangying Qin , Changmin Jiang

The selection of network structures is instrumental for airlines to gain upper hand in market competition. In the existing research, game theoretical methodologies are utilized to provide equilibria for suggesting strategies in competition. Nowadays, utilities for airlines are increasingly affected by factors which are difficult to calibrate, such as geopolitical events. Besides, airlines as wise decision makers not only consider the strategic moves in the foresight of one step, but also what could be the counteractions from opponent airlines. In this paper, the selection of network structures between two competing airlines are investigated using graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), an effective methodology for solving strategic conflicts. The equilibria of competition are calculated without the requirement of explicit expression of utilities, and reflecting the perception of each airlines in two steps. Theorems are provided to indicate the existence of the equilibria in the competition, including Nash equilibria and sequentially stable (SEQ) equilibria for the foresight of two steps. Comparing with the equilibria calculated in the existing literature based on the same modelling settings, the Nash equilibria suggested by GMCR are consistent with those calculated by classical game theory approach. Besides, GMCR can indicate SEQ equilibria as an enhanced understanding of competition reflecting longer foresights of DMs. In particular, the SEQ equilibria in Scenarios 1 and 2 of this paper indicate alternative strategies by adopting which both airlines could be more profitable compared with the strategies suggested by Nash equilibria. As demonstrated in this paper, GMCR not only requires less information in modelling, but is also capable of providing more insightful strategies for DMs in aviation industry. Moreover, the framework of addressing the network selection problem using GMCR could provide a useful paradigm for analyzing wider range of strategic competition problems in aviation industry in the future.

网络结构的选择是航空公司在市场竞争中取得优势的重要手段。在现有的研究中，利用博弈论的方法为竞争中的策略建议提供均衡。如今，航空公司的公用事业越来越多地受到难以校准的因素的影响，例如地缘政治事件。此外，作为明智的决策者，航空公司不仅要考虑一步的战略举措，还要考虑对手航空公司可能采取的反击措施。本文采用冲突解决图模型（GMCR）这一解决战略冲突的有效方法，对竞争两家航空公司之间的网络结构选择进行了研究。竞争均衡的计算不要求明确表达效用，并分两步反映各航空公司的感知。给出了竞争均衡存在的定理，包括纳什均衡和两步前瞻的顺序稳定均衡。与已有文献在相同模型设置下计算的均衡相比，GMCR所提出的纳什均衡与经典博弈论方法计算的纳什均衡基本一致。此外，GMCR可以表明SEQ均衡是对竞争的更好理解，反映了决策者更长远的远见。特别是，本文情景1和情景2中的SEQ均衡表明，与纳什均衡建议的策略相比，采用两家航空公司都可以更有利可图的替代策略。如本文所示，GMCR不仅在建模上需要更少的信息，而且能够为航空业的决策经理提供更有洞察力的策略。此外，利用GMCR解决网络选择问题的框架可以为未来航空业更广泛的战略竞争问题的分析提供一个有用的范式。

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引用次数: 0

Applying Large Language Models to investigate how people with disabilities interact at airports 应用大型语言模型来调查残疾人如何在机场互动

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102880

Steven Tanner McCullough , Ariana Grant , Evan Mistur , June Young Park

Rapid transition in social and environmental conditions consistently demand changes in how airport facilities are operated and managed, creating an ongoing stream of new and unique barriers to accessibility. In this paper, a novel framework in conjunction with Large Language Model (LLM) and accessibility design standards is used to discover the perceived accessibility of people with disability (PWD) in airports, mined from location-based social media reviews. The analysis uncovered key insights into how different airports perform in terms of accessibility among 64 hub airports in the United States. While some airports excel in most areas that are legislated by the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), others face challenges in providing consistent and inclusive experiences. Primarily, the initial arrival experiences at airports are seen as the most significant factor influencing PWD overall perceptions of accessibility throughout the entire airport, highlighting the importance of consistent and effective first contact in shaping the journey of PWD.

社会和环境条件的快速变化不断要求机场设施的运营和管理方式发生变化，从而不断产生新的和独特的无障碍障碍。本文结合大语言模型（Large Language Model， LLM）和无障碍设计标准，从基于位置的社交媒体评论中挖掘机场残障人士（PWD）的无障碍感知。该分析揭示了美国64个枢纽机场在可达性方面的不同机场表现的关键见解。虽然一些机场在《美国残疾人法案》（ADA）规定的大多数领域表现出色，但其他机场在提供一致和包容的体验方面面临挑战。首先，首次抵达机场的体验被视为影响残疾人士对整个机场无障碍程度的整体看法的最重要因素，这突显了始终如一和有效的首次接触对残疾人士旅程的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Integrated hub airport location and fleets planning for airline-alliance-oriented freight transport system 以航空联盟为导向的货运系统的综合枢纽机场定位和机队规划

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102889

Yu Zheng , Yi Huang , Hua Wang

The rapid growth of e-commerce has led to a surge in air cargo demand. Rather than operating independently, airlines are increasingly collaborating to capture a larger market share. This study investigates the integrated hub airport location and fleet planning problem under the context of airline alliances to enhance sustainable urban freight transportation. Three optimization models are proposed in different airline cooperation modes: i) model INDHL-INDFP, where airlines independently determine hub airport locations and fleet planning, ii) model INTHL-INDFP, where airlines collaboratively decide hub airport locations while planning fleets individually based on their cargo demand, and iii) model INTHLFP, where airlines make integrated decisions on both hub locations and fleet planning. These models are applied to networks of varying scales, and their performance is compared. Results indicate that integrated decision-making within airline alliances effectively reduces total system costs, with cost-saving benefits becoming more pronounced as network size increases. Additionally, this approach aligns freighter capacity with cargo demand, enhancing system resilience to demand fluctuations. Sensitivity analysis further reveals that the optimal number of hub airports depends on network scale and varies under different airline cooperation strategies. Moreover, network size significantly influences the determination of the maximum number of flights connected to other hubs for a hub. This study provides valuable insights into optimizing airline cooperation strategies to improve efficiency and sustainability in air cargo transportation.

电子商务的快速发展导致航空货运需求激增。航空公司不再独立运营，而是越来越多地合作以获取更大的市场份额。本研究探讨航空联盟背景下的枢纽机场选址与机队规划问题，以提升城市货运的永续性。针对不同的航空公司合作模式，提出了三种优化模型：1)航空公司独立决定枢纽机场位置和机队规划的INDHL-INDFP模型；2)航空公司根据货运需求单独规划机队，协同决定枢纽机场位置的INTHL-INDFP模型；3)航空公司对枢纽机场位置和机队规划进行综合决策的INTHLFP模型。将这些模型应用于不同规模的网络，并比较了它们的性能。结果表明，航空公司联盟内部的综合决策有效地降低了系统总成本，随着网络规模的增加，成本节约的好处变得更加明显。此外，这种方法使货运能力与货物需求保持一致，增强了系统对需求波动的弹性。敏感度分析进一步表明，枢纽机场的最优数量取决于网络规模，在不同的航空公司合作策略下也有所不同。此外，网络规模显著影响一个枢纽连接到其他枢纽的最大航班数量的确定。本研究为优化航空公司合作策略以提高航空货运的效率和可持续性提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of oil prices shocks in the valuation of stock prices of aviation companies 油价震荡对航空公司股价估值的影响

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102882

Mirko Gabbiadini, Michele Meoli, Stefano Paleari

This study investigates the impact of oil price changes on the market value of the aviation industry. We analyze a sample of 121 airlines and 30 airports listed worldwide between 2000Q1 and 2023Q4 and find that overall, oil price changes deteriorate the market value of the aviation industry.

However, the marginal effect of oil price changes is more negative for airlines than for airports. When we disentangle oil price changes into demand shocks and supply shocks, we find that airlines benefit more from demand shocks, whereas airports are more resilient to supply shocks. Our results suggest that oil price changes contribute to a shift in value within the aviation industry, from airlines to airports, and that demand shock and supply shock exert a different impact between airlines and airports.

本研究探讨石油价格变动对航空业市场价值的影响。我们分析了2000年第一季度至2023Q4年间全球上市的121家航空公司和30个机场的样本，发现总体而言，油价变化恶化了航空业的市场价值。然而，油价变动的边际效应对航空公司的负面影响大于对机场的负面影响。当我们将油价变化分解为需求冲击和供给冲击时，我们发现航空公司从需求冲击中获益更多，而机场对供给冲击的抵御能力更强。我们的研究结果表明，油价变化有助于航空业的价值转移，从航空公司到机场，需求冲击和供应冲击在航空公司和机场之间产生不同的影响。

引用次数: 0

Cross-border capacity sharing in air traffic control: which area control centres in Europe are the best candidates? 空中交通管制的跨境能力共享：欧洲哪些区域管制中心是最佳候选者？

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102878

Goran Pavlović , Milan Stanojević , Radosav Jovanović

Air traffic in Europe is recovering strongly after a period of unprecedented traffic downturn caused by COVID-19 pandemic. Significant capacity bottlenecks again occur in various parts of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) network, leading to excessive delays and attracting pronounced public interest. Over the past decade, the concept of cross-border ATS (Air Traffic Services) provision has come under the spotlight as a potential solution to enhance capacity utilization. Two key strategic questions arise: what are the expected benefits and which Area Control Centres (ACCs) in Europe are the best candidates for such cooperation? To address those, we developed a two-phase approach supported by mathematical models. Results suggest that the potential savings at network level from the “super-ATCO (Air Traffic Control Officer)” concept amount to 300–350 ATCOs (or 7 %) compared to individual rostering on a single day of operations. However, up to 74 % of such theoretical savings can already be achieved by means of optimal pairing of ACCs. Our findings may assist policy-makers in establishing adequate incentive mechanisms for early adopters. Moreover, the developed methodology can serve as a valuable strategic asset for decision-makers and Network Manager to accelerate the implementation of ATS delegation, following recent adoption of the SES2+ regulation.

在经历了COVID-19大流行造成的前所未有的交通低迷期后，欧洲的空中交通正在强劲复苏。空中交通管理（ATM）网络的各个部分再次出现严重的容量瓶颈，导致过度延误，并引起公众的明显兴趣。过去十年，跨境空中交通服务（ATS）的概念作为提高运力利用率的潜在解决方案受到关注。出现了两个关键的战略问题：预期的好处是什么？欧洲哪些区域控制中心（acc）是这种合作的最佳候选者？为了解决这些问题，我们开发了一个由数学模型支持的两阶段方法。结果显示，“超级空中交通管制主任”概念在网络层面上的潜在节省相当于300-350名空中交通管制主任（或7%），而不是在一天的运营中单独值班。然而，通过acc的最佳配对，已经可以实现高达74%的理论节约。我们的发现可以帮助决策者为早期采用者建立适当的激励机制。此外，在最近采用SES2+法规之后，开发的方法可以作为决策者和网络管理员加速ATS授权实施的宝贵战略资产。

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引用次数: 0

Investigating cargo capacity determinants in desertic airports using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis 利用贝叶斯网络（BN）分析研究沙漠机场的货运量决定因素

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102879

Sharaf AlKheder, Shrouq Almutairi

Since the inauguration of Kuwait International Airport in 1960, Kuwait's transition from an oil-based economy to a key aviation industry player in the region has been marked. This study investigates the cargo capacity determinants at Kuwait International Airport (KIA) from 2011 to 2021, employing Bayesian Network (BN) analysis. It dissects aviation data into two five-year periods to discern time-sensitive influences on the aviation network, focusing on scheduled and non-scheduled cargo flights. The study tests economic factors like GDP, population, jet fuel prices, inflation rates, and exchange rates. Results indicate that GDP and exchange rate are pivotal for cargo capacity throughout the decade. In the first five years, the exchange rate solely influenced cargo capacity, while in the latter half, both the exchange rate and inflation were significant factors. Additionally, cargo capacity was indirectly impacted by fuel prices through inflation. A sensitivity analysis reveals the varying impacts on cargo capacity: inflation had the highest sensitivity, causing a 36 % increase in cargo capacity for a 7.5–15.5 % inflation rate increase during 2016–2021. Exchange rates and fuel prices followed with 32 % and 14 % sensitivity, respectively. The study also notes that changes in GDP and exchange rates had relatively minor effects on cargo capacity in the first half of the decade. This abstract summarizes the research's aim, methods, and crucial findings, emphasizing their relevance in understanding cargo capacity dynamics at KIA amidst Kuwait's economic evolution.

自1960年科威特国际机场落成以来，科威特已从一个以石油为基础的经济体转变为该地区重要的航空工业参与者。本研究采用贝叶斯网络（BN）分析，调查了2011年至2021年科威特国际机场（KIA）货运能力的决定因素。它将航空数据分成两个五年期，以辨别对航空网络的时间敏感影响，重点关注定期和不定期货运航班。该研究测试了GDP、人口、航空燃料价格、通货膨胀率和汇率等经济因素。结果表明，GDP和汇率是整个十年货运能力的关键。在前五年，汇率仅影响运力，而在后五年，汇率和通货膨胀都是重要因素。此外，由于通货膨胀，货运能力受到燃料价格的间接影响。敏感性分析揭示了对货运能力的不同影响：通货膨胀的敏感性最高，在2016-2021年期间，通货膨胀率增长7.5 - 15.5%，导致货运能力增长36%。其次是汇率和燃料价格，敏感度分别为32%和14%。该研究还指出，在本十年的前五年，国内生产总值和汇率的变化对货运能力的影响相对较小。本摘要总结了研究的目的、方法和关键发现，强调了它们在理解科威特国际机场在科威特经济发展中的货运能力动态方面的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

The reciprocal impact between air passenger transport and international tourism in Singapore 航空客运与新加坡国际旅游业的相互影响

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102877

Quang Hai Nguyen

This study examines the interplay between air passenger transport and international tourism through the role of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and trade openness in 11 key markets of Singapore. Co-integration tests indicate that although air passenger transport and international tourism may not be individually stable in some markets, their fluctuations are strongly and durably related. The estimation results using a combined SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), X (exogenous factors), and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model show that there is a strong interrelationship between air passenger transport and the number of international tourists to Singapore, but air passenger transport is less sensitive to fluctuations in the number of international tourists. GDP and trade openness also have significant impacts on the demand for both sectors, but at different levels across markets. The cyclical, seasonal, and external shock effects found in air passenger transport and international tourism indicate the diversity in behavior and characteristics of each market. The research results provide a basis for managers and policymakers to forecast and formulate development policies for tourism and air transport.

本研究通过国内生产总值（GDP）和新加坡11个主要市场的贸易开放程度，考察了航空客运与国际旅游业之间的相互作用。协整检验表明，虽然航空客运和国际旅游业在某些市场中可能不是单独稳定的，但它们的波动是强烈而持久的相关。使用SARIMA（季节性自回归综合移动平均）、X（外生因子）和GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）模型的组合估计结果表明，航空客运与新加坡国际游客数量之间存在很强的相互关系，但航空客运对国际游客数量的波动不太敏感。GDP和贸易开放度对这两个部门的需求也有显著影响，但不同市场的影响程度不同。在航空客运和国际旅游中发现的周期性、季节性和外部冲击效应表明每个市场的行为和特征的多样性。研究结果为管理者和决策者预测和制定旅游和航空运输发展政策提供了依据。

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引用次数: 0

The impacts of airport economic zones on local urban development in China 中国空港经济区对地方城市发展的影响

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102875

Jianhua Pi , Xingjian Liu , Will W. Qiang , Chris Webster

China's implementation of Airport Economic Zones (AEZs) seeks to capitalize on aviation infrastructure for local development. While existing studies have assessed airport-related urban development in China, the specific impacts of AEZ policies on local economies remain underexamined. To this end, our study evaluates the impacts of AEZs on local economies, utilizing a panel dataset of 62 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2000–2019. We employ a heterogeneous timing difference-in-differences method to assess localized economic impacts of AEZs, considering three specific treatment timings. The results show that AEZs have positive but limited impacts on localized economic growth, particularly evident in increased economic activities around airports. Local economic impacts of more recently announced national airport economic demonstration zones are insignificant in the analysis. Meanwhile, the establishment of other kinds of development zones around airports fosters nearby economic activity and employment in airport-related sectors, oftentimes with higher levels of statistical significance. These findings add empirical evidence for airport region development's impact on economy and underscore the importance of institutional support for maximizing AEZs' contributions to urban development.

中国实施空港经济区（aez）旨在利用航空基础设施促进地方发展。虽然现有的研究已经评估了中国与机场相关的城市发展，但经济特区政策对当地经济的具体影响仍未得到充分研究。为此，本研究利用2000-2019年中国62个地级市的面板数据集，评估了经济特区对地方经济的影响。考虑到三种特定的治疗时机，我们采用了一种异质时间差中差的方法来评估aez的局部经济影响。结果表明，经济特区对地区经济增长的影响是积极但有限的，特别是在机场周边经济活动增加方面。在分析中，最近公布的国家空港经济示范区对地方经济的影响不显著。与此同时，在机场周围建立其他类型的开发区会促进附近与机场相关部门的经济活动和就业，通常具有更高的统计显著性。这些发现为空港区发展对经济的影响提供了经验证据，并强调了制度支持对于最大限度地发挥空港区对城市发展的贡献的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Data-driven governing equation identification of near terminal air traffic flow dynamics 数据驱动的近航站楼空中交通流动力学控制方程辨识

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102871

Qihang Xu, Yutian Pang, Zhiming Zhang, Yongming Liu

Efficient air traffic management (ATM) relies on accurately understanding and predicting air traffic patterns and delays. While deep learning methods have shown promise in prediction tasks, they often lack interpretability and require large volumes of data. This paper presents a novel, data-driven framework to model and predict near-terminal traffic flow and flight delays by identifying the underlying partial differential equations (PDEs) that govern air traffic dynamics. Our approach leverages aircraft trajectory patterns and density distributions to estimate probability density functions (PDFs) of travel times. Using sparse regression for system identification, we learn the governing equations that capture the temporal evolution of density and travel time distributions. These equations are then embedded into a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) for integrated prediction. Experiments with real-world data validate the framework’s effectiveness in accurately identifying governing PDEs and forecasting flight delays. By combining physical modeling with deep learning, the proposed method improves both the interpretability and generalizability of AI applications in ATM, offering practical value in enhancing airport efficiency and operational decision-making.

有效的空中交通管理依赖于对空中交通模式和延误的准确理解和预测。虽然深度学习方法在预测任务中显示出前景，但它们往往缺乏可解释性，并且需要大量数据。本文提出了一个新颖的数据驱动框架，通过识别控制空中交通动态的潜在偏微分方程（pde）来建模和预测近航站楼交通流量和航班延误。我们的方法利用飞机轨迹模式和密度分布来估计飞行时间的概率密度函数（pdf）。使用稀疏回归进行系统识别，我们学习了控制方程，该方程捕获了密度和旅行时间分布的时间演变。然后将这些方程嵌入到物理信息神经网络（PINN）中进行综合预测。实际数据的实验验证了该框架在准确识别控制偏微分方程和预测航班延误方面的有效性。该方法将物理建模与深度学习相结合，提高了人工智能在ATM中的可解释性和泛化性，对提高机场效率和运营决策具有实用价值。

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引用次数: 0

Flight schedules under partnership: The effects of capacity purchase agreements on airline schedule buffers 伙伴关系下的航班计划：运力购买协议对航空公司计划缓冲的影响

IF 3.6 2区工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

Journal of Air Transport Management

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102876

Jules Yimga

This study examines how capacity purchase agreements (CPAs) between major U.S. network carriers and their regional airline partners affect schedule padding practices. Using a large dataset of over 7 million flight-level observations from 2023 and distinguishing between flights operated directly by mainline carriers and those operated by regional partners under branded CPA arrangements, we assess whether CPAs incentivize airlines to pad schedules more aggressively. Results consistently show that CPA-operated flights have significantly more schedule padding than mainline-operated flights, with the effect being most pronounced in long-haul markets. These findings amplify the dual-edged nature of such partnerships: while CPAs support network connectivity and operational reliability, the systematically longer scheduled block times may reduce aircraft utilization.

本研究考察了美国主要网络运营商及其区域航空公司合作伙伴之间的运力购买协议（cpa）如何影响航班填充实践。利用2023年以来超过700万次航班观测的大型数据集，并区分干线航空公司直接运营的航班和区域合作伙伴在品牌CPA安排下运营的航班，我们评估CPA是否会激励航空公司更积极地调整时间表。结果一致表明，cpa运营的航班比干线运营的航班有更多的时间表填充，这种影响在长途市场上最为明显。这些发现放大了这种合作关系的双刃剑性质：虽然注册会计师支持网络连接和运行可靠性，但系统性地延长计划阻塞时间可能会降低飞机利用率。

引用次数: 0