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Earnings Risk and Heterogeneous Expected Earnings Profiles 盈余风险与异质预期盈余概况
Pub Date : 2020-06-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3630330
Scott Drewianka, P. Oberg
We add to the debate about whether empirical models of earnings dynamics should allow for unobservable heterogeneity in expected earnings growth rates by considering the consequences for estimating the variance of earnings shocks. Several tests are proposed, some that extend and augment earlier evidence, and some entirely new. In every case, empirical evidence from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics favors models lacking such heterogeneity. Such models invariably indicate workers face greater risk of permanent earnings shocks, implying much of the dispersion in lifetime earnings may not be predictable ex-ante.
我们加入了关于盈余动态的实证模型是否应该通过考虑估计盈余冲击方差的后果来考虑预期盈余增长率中不可观察的异质性的争论。提出了几种测试方法,有些是对早期证据的扩展和补充,有些则是全新的。在每种情况下,来自收入动态小组研究的经验证据都倾向于缺乏这种异质性的模型。这些模型无一例外地表明,工人面临永久性收入冲击的风险更大,这意味着终身收入的差异在很大程度上可能无法事先预测。
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引用次数: 0
Italian Families in the 21st Century: Gender Gaps in Time Use and their Evolution 21世纪的意大利家庭:时间使用的性别差异及其演变
Pub Date : 2020-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3627007
F. Barigozzi, Cesare Di Timoteo, C. Monfardini
We provide novel estimates of gender differences in the allocation of time by Italian adults and document their trends over the span 2002-2014, pooling three time-use surveys run by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The positive gap (females-males) in time devoted to Household work and the negative gap in Market work and Leisure are found to have narrowed over the observed period, mainly due to changes in women’s time allocation, while the positive gap in time devoted to Child care remained substantially constant. In 2014, the sharing of family duties appears still heavily unbalanced even when we look at the subsample of full-time working parents. Full-time working mothers devote to Market work about 4 hours per week less than their partners, but they devote 14 hours per week more to Household work and 3 hours and a half more to Basic child care. This translates in 13 hours per week more total (paid and unpaid) work and 11 hours per week less Leisure. On the positive side, the gender gap in time devoted to Quality child care exhibits a reversed sign in 2014. The change is driven by weekend days, when partners of full-time working mothers become the main provider of this type of care.
我们对意大利成年人在时间分配方面的性别差异进行了新颖的估计,并汇集了意大利国家统计局(ISTAT)开展的三次时间使用调查,记录了2002年至2014年期间的趋势。在观察期间,用于家务劳动的时间的正差距(女性-男性)和市场工作和休闲的负差距已经缩小,主要是由于女性时间分配的变化,而用于儿童保育的时间的正差距基本保持不变。2014年,即使我们看一下全职工作父母的子样本,家庭责任的分担似乎仍然严重不平衡。全职工作的母亲每周花在市场工作上的时间比她们的伴侣少4个小时,但她们每周花在家务上的时间多14个小时,花在基本儿童保育上的时间多3个半小时。这意味着每周总共多工作13个小时(有薪和无薪),每周少11个小时的休闲时间。从积极的方面来看,2014年,用于高质量儿童保育的时间的性别差距呈现出相反的迹象。这一变化是由周末推动的,在周末,全职工作母亲的伴侣成为这种照顾的主要提供者。
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引用次数: 7
Native-Immigrant Differences in the Effect of Children on the Gender Pay Gap 本土移民子女对性别收入差距影响的差异
Pub Date : 2020-06-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3624746
Adrian Nieto Castro
Abstract This paper explores gender differences in the career paths of immigrant and native parents before and after childbirth using Spanish administrative data and an event study specification. I find an important gender pay gap emerging after childbirth for both immigrants and natives, and that the drivers of these gender pay gaps strongly differ between natives and immigrants: while children generate higher gender gaps in labour participation and part-time work for natives, the gender gaps in employment and permanent employment are greater for immigrants. I investigate whether the deterioration of mothers’ careers originates from workers’ or employers’ decisions, and show that the main reason for native mothers is to temporarily stop working, while for immigrant mothers is being dismissed. Finally, I show that the educational background of parents is an important determinant of the native-immigrant differences I find in the effect of children on the gender pay gap, while the cultural background is not.
摘要本文利用西班牙行政数据和事件研究规范,探讨移民父母和本地父母在分娩前后职业道路的性别差异。我发现,移民和本地人在生育后都出现了重要的性别收入差距,而这些性别收入差距的驱动因素在本地人和移民之间存在很大差异:虽然孩子在劳动力参与和兼职工作方面造成了更高的性别差距,但在就业和永久就业方面,移民的性别差距更大。我调查了母亲职业生涯的恶化是否源于工人或雇主的决定,并表明本地母亲的主要原因是暂时停止工作,而移民母亲的主要原因是被解雇。最后,我表明父母的教育背景是本地移民差异的一个重要决定因素,我发现孩子对性别工资差距的影响,而文化背景不是。
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引用次数: 6
The Psychological Effects of Poverty on Investments in Children’s Human Capital 贫困对儿童人力资本投资的心理影响
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3633815
Guilherme Lichand, E. Bettinger, Nina Cunha, Ricardo A. Madeira
Poverty focuses attention on present needs. Does that mean that poor parents respond inefficiently to future returns on investments in their children's human capital - even when they would have the financial means to invest optimally? We study this question in the context of an educational program in Brazil whose predicted child-specific returns are known to the researchers, allowing us to compute optimal decisions. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment to make some parents worry more than others about pressing financial needs, we find that those in the treatment condition offered the opportunity to invest in that program misallocate resources relative to the control group: they not only invest significantly less when the program has high returns, but also, significantly more when predicted returns are low. We show that such inefficient responses are driven by poverty-induced attention misa/Jocation, since (1) parents in the treatment condition perform better in cognitive tests that yield small but immediate returns, and (2) increasing the salience of returns before the experiment eliminates differential responses by those parents. Our results suggest that poiicy instruments to boost human capital investments among the poor, such as credit lines earmarked for education, may be insufficient to spark such investments when returns are high, and even lead to over-investment by those not expected to benefit from it.
贫穷把注意力集中在目前的需要上。这是否意味着,贫穷的父母对子女人力资本投资的未来回报反应迟钝——即使他们有财力进行最佳投资?我们在巴西的一个教育项目中研究这个问题,研究人员知道该项目对特定儿童的预期回报,从而可以计算出最优决策。通过实地实验室实验,我们发现一些家长比其他家长更担心紧迫的经济需求,那些在治疗条件下有机会投资于该计划的人,相对于对照组,资源分配不当:他们不仅在计划有高回报时投资明显减少,而且在预期回报较低时,投资也明显增加。我们表明,这种低效的反应是由贫困引起的注意力缺失/职业驱动的,因为(1)在治疗条件下的父母在产生小但即时回报的认知测试中表现更好,(2)在实验消除这些父母的差异反应之前增加了回报的显著性。我们的研究结果表明,促进穷人人力资本投资的政策工具,如专门用于教育的信贷额度,可能不足以在回报高的情况下激发这种投资,甚至会导致那些预计不会从中受益的人过度投资。
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引用次数: 13
Understanding the Education Polygenic Score and Its Interactions with SES in Determining Health in Young Adulthood 了解教育多基因评分及其与社会经济地位在决定青年成年健康中的相互作用
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3397735
A. Bolyard, P. Savelyev
We investigate the education polygenic score (PGS), an index based on genetic data that predicts years of formal education. Based on the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, we find that an education PGS has a beneficial effect on multiple health-related outcomes in young adulthood both indirectly though education and directly. In addition, we find that socioeconomic status (SES) moderates the relationship between the PGS and health outcomes so that individuals with particularly low SES typically do not experience health benefits from the education PGS. We decompose the effect of the PGS with respect to education, early health, and cognitive and noncognitive skills and find that the beneficial effects of PGS work through formal education, early health, and early skills, among other channels. Finally, after controlling for education PGS and unobserved heterogeneity on top of more traditional controls, we still find that education is associated with better health outcomes, which adds evidence to the debate about the causal link between education and health.
我们研究了教育多基因得分(PGS),这是一个基于遗传数据预测正规教育年数的指数。基于全国青少年到成人健康的纵向研究,我们发现教育PGS对青年期多种健康相关结果有间接和直接的有益影响。此外,我们发现社会经济地位(SES)调节了PGS与健康结果之间的关系,因此社会经济地位特别低的个体通常不会从教育PGS中获得健康益处。我们将PGS对教育、早期健康、认知和非认知技能的影响进行了分解,发现PGS的有益影响通过正规教育、早期健康和早期技能等渠道发挥作用。最后,在控制了教育PGS和未观察到的异质性之后,我们仍然发现教育与更好的健康结果相关,这为关于教育与健康之间因果关系的争论增加了证据。
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引用次数: 8
Дифференциация молодежных групп: экономическая активность, демографическое поведение, социальные практики (Differentiation of Youth Groups: Economic Activity, Demographic Behavior, Social Practices) Дифференциациямолодежныхгрупп:экономическаяактивность,демографическоеповедени,есоциальныепрактики(青年组织的分化:经济活动人口的行为,社会实践)
Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710497
E. Avraamova, Anastasia V. Karavay, Dmitriy Loginov, V. Titov
Russian Abstract: Целью исследования является выявление, с одной стороны, основных и наиболее распространенных типов социально-экономического и демографического поведения российской молодежи, а, с другой – новых типов поведения, которые зарождаются в молодежной среде, с тем, чтобы впоследствии тиражироваться в других возрастных когортах.
Информационной базой исследования является анкетный опрос молодежных групп (в возрасте 18-35 лет), проведенный по общероссийской репрезентативной выборке.
Анализ эмпирических данных позволил выявить модели экономической активности миллениалов. Исследованы традиционные и новые модели трудового и финансового поведения. Выявлены базовые и новые модели демографического поведения. Проанализированы социальные практики, распространенные в молодежной среде, а также формы солидарности поколений.

English Abstract: The aim of the study is, on the one hand, to identify the main and the most widespread types of socio-economic and demographic behavior of the Russian youth and, on the other hand, to find out new types of behavior that appear in the youth environment that will consequently spread among other age cohorts.

The informational base of the study is the survey among groups of young people (in the age from 18 to 35) conducted basing on the representative sample all over Russia. The analysis of empirical data allowed to reveal the models of ’Millennials’ economic activity. The new and traditional models of labor and financial behavior are studied. The basic and new models of demographic behavior are found out. The social practices common for young people as well as the forms of solidarity among generations are analyzed.
俄罗斯Abstract:研究的目的是识别俄罗斯青年社会经济和人口行为的基本和最常见类型,另一方面是在青年环境中产生的新行为,以便以后在其他年龄群体中传播。该研究的信息数据库是一份关于全俄罗斯代表性样本的青年团体调查问卷(18-35岁)。对经验数据的分析揭示了千禧年经济活动的模式。研究传统和新模式的劳动和金融行为。人口行为的基本和新模式已经被发现。分析了在青年环境中普遍存在的社会实践以及世代团结的形式。抽象:The aim of The English研究is on The one hand to identify The main and The most widespread types of socio - economic and demographic behavior of The俄罗斯youth and on The other hand, to find out new types of behavior that appear in The youth环境that will consequently spread《other age cohorts。在18到35岁的时候,人们的生活基础是建立在俄罗斯的基础上。这是对实验数据的分析,这是对千禧年活动模型的分析。labor和finavior工作室的新交易模型。比哈维奥的基础和新模式是开放的。社会传统的社区与年轻人的社区是一致的,因为他们是独立的传统形式。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding the Rising Trend in Female Labour Force Participation 了解女性劳动参与率上升的趋势
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3636580
N. Hérault, G. Kalb
Female labour force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labour force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labour supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labour force participation.
自第二次世界大战以来,发达国家的女性劳动力参与率大幅提高。先前的研究提供了零敲碎打的证据,确定了一些变化的驱动因素,但在很大程度上未能提出一个一致的故事。利用澳大利亚罕见的数据和建模能力组合,我们开发了一种新的分解方法来解释自20世纪90年代中期以来女性劳动力参与率的上升。这种方法使我们第一次能够确定税收和转移政策改革的作用,以及其他三个因素,这些因素已经被早期的研究证明是重要的。这些变化是:(1)实际工资的变化,(2)人口构成的变化,和(3)劳动力供应偏好参数的变化。一个关键的结果是,尽管澳大利亚和其他地方的公共政策一直强调改善对妇女的工作激励,但由于税收和转移政策改革而导致的财政激励变化对实现这些参与的大幅增加贡献相对较小。相反,其他三个因素推动了女性劳动力参与率的提高。
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引用次数: 4
The Educational and Fertility Effects of Sibling Deaths 兄弟姐妹死亡对教育和生育的影响
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3172537
Dhanushka Thamarapani, Marc Rockmore, Willa Friedman
An emerging literature finds that childhood exposure to adverse events determines adult outcomes and behavior. We extend this research to understand the influence of witnessing a sibling death as a child on subsequent educational and fertility outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data and a sibling fixed effects model, we identify this relationship based on variation in the age of surviving children within the same family. Our findings strongly support the importance and persistence of adverse childhood experiences. In particular, for surviving sisters, witnessing a sibling death reduces the years of completed education and the likelihood of completing secondary schooling. The effect on surviving brothers is more muted. A potential channel for this result is that women respond by changing their fertility behavior. While surviving the death of a sibling has little effect on desired fertility levels, we find evidence that surviving sisters start a family about 3-4 years earlier. This suggests that interventions targeted at early-life outcomes may have important ripple effects and that the full impact of health interventions may not be visible until decades afterwards
一个新兴的文献发现,童年暴露于不良事件决定了成人的结果和行为。我们扩展了这项研究,以了解印度尼西亚儿童时期目睹兄弟姐妹死亡对随后的教育和生育结果的影响。使用面板数据和兄弟姐妹固定效应模型,我们根据同一家庭中幸存子女年龄的变化确定了这种关系。我们的研究结果有力地支持了不良童年经历的重要性和持久性。特别是对幸存的姐妹而言,目睹兄弟姐妹死亡会减少完成教育的年数和完成中学教育的可能性。对幸存的兄弟们的影响则更小。造成这一结果的一个潜在原因是女性通过改变生育行为来应对。虽然幸存的兄弟姐妹死亡对期望的生育水平影响不大,但我们发现有证据表明,幸存的姐妹会提前3-4年组建家庭。这表明,针对生命早期结果的干预措施可能会产生重要的连锁反应,而卫生干预措施的全面影响可能要到几十年后才能显现出来
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引用次数: 11
Migration, Housing Constraints, and Inequality: A Quantitative Analysis of China 移民、住房约束与不平等:中国的定量分析
Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3572838
Min Fang, Zibin Huang
We investigate the role of migration and housing constraints in determining income inequality within and across Chinese cities. Combining microdata and a spatial equilibrium model, we quantify the impact of the massive spatial reallocation of workers and the rapid growth of housing costs on the national income distribution. We first show several stylized facts detailing the strong positive correlation between migration inflows, housing costs, and imputed income inequality among Chinese cities. We then build a spatial equilibrium model featuring workers with heterogeneous skills, housing constraints, and heterogeneous returns from housing ownership to explain these facts. Our quantitative results indicate that the reductions in migration costs and the disproportionate growth in productivity across cities and skills result in the observed massive migration flows. Combining with the tight land supply policy in big cities, the expansion of the housing demand causes the rapid growth of housing costs and enlarges the inequality between local housing owners and migrants. The counterfactual analysis shows that if we redistribute land supply increment by migrant flow and increase land supply toward cities with more migrants, we could lower the within-city income inequality by 14% and the national income inequality by 18%. Meanwhile, we can simultaneously encourage more migration into higher productivity cities.
我们研究了人口迁移和住房限制在决定中国城市内部和城市之间收入不平等中的作用。结合微观数据和空间均衡模型,我们量化了大规模劳动力空间再分配和住房成本快速增长对国民收入分配的影响。我们首先展示了几个典型事实,详细说明了中国城市间移民流入、住房成本和估算收入不平等之间的强正相关性。然后,我们建立了一个空间均衡模型,以具有异质性技能、住房约束和住房所有权异质性回报的工人为特征,来解释这些事实。我们的定量结果表明,移民成本的降低以及不同城市和不同技能的生产力不成比例的增长导致了观察到的大规模移民潮。结合大城市紧缩的土地供应政策,住房需求的扩大导致了住房成本的快速增长,并扩大了本地住房所有者与移民之间的不平等。反事实分析表明,如果按移民流重新分配土地供应增量,向移民较多的城市增加土地供应,可使城市内部收入不平等降低 14%,全国收入不平等降低 18%。与此同时,我们还可以鼓励更多的移民向生产率更高的城市迁移。
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引用次数: 10
Corporate Social Responsibility, Pension Liability, and Dividend Policy 企业社会责任、养老金责任与股利政策
Pub Date : 2020-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3583901
Ken Y. Chen
In recent years, firms had been paying increasing attention to its social performance to improve the overall corporate reputation. Another clear trend is that firms are shifting away from defined benefit pension plans (DB plans) which means firms will be bearing less risk and liability, this can be a significant change to household retirement savings and more directly, retiree well being. Moreover, the portion of dividend-paying firms is dropping over the years. This paper studies the relationship between Corporate social responsibility, corporate pension liability, and dividend payout ratio using annual pension data and dividend data from Compustats and Corporate Social Responsibility data from MSCI ESG KLD (formerly KLD and GMI); Firm profitability was also taken into account with annual fundamental data from Compustats.
近年来,企业越来越重视社会绩效,以提高企业的整体声誉。另一个明显的趋势是,公司正在从固定收益养老金计划(DB计划)转移,这意味着公司将承担更少的风险和责任,这可能是家庭退休储蓄的重大变化,更直接地说,退休人员的福祉。此外,派息公司的比例逐年下降。本文利用Compustats的年度养老金数据和股息数据以及MSCI ESG KLD(原KLD和GMI)的企业社会责任数据,研究了企业社会责任、企业养老金负债和股息支付率之间的关系;公司的盈利能力也被Compustats的年度基本数据考虑在内。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal
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