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Leveraging Machine Learning to Characterize the Role of Socio-economic Determinants of Physical Health and Well-being Among Veterans 利用机器学习来描述退伍军人身体健康和福祉的社会经济决定因素的作用
Pub Date : 2020-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3686845
C. Makridis, David Y. Zhao, G. Alterovitz
Understanding the contribution of demographic, socio-economic, and geographic characteristics as determinants of physical health and well-being is important for guiding public health policies and preventative behavior interventions. We use several machine learning methods to build predictive models of overall well-being and physical health among veterans as a function of these three sets of characteristics. We link Gallup's U.S. Daily Poll between 2014 and 2017 covering a range of demographic and socio-economic characteristics with zipcode characteristics from the Census Bureau to build predictive models of overall and physical well-being. Although the predictive models of overall well-being have weak performance, our classification of low levels of physical well-being performed better. Gradient boosting delivered the best results (90.2% precision, 82.4% recall, and 80.4% AUROC) with perceptions of purpose in the workplace and financial anxiety as the most predictive features. Our results suggest that additional measures of socio-economic characteristics are required to better predict physical well-being, particularly among vulnerable groups, like veterans. Reliable and effective predictive models will provide opportunities to create real-time and personalized feedback to help individuals improve their quality of life.
了解人口、社会经济和地理特征作为身体健康和福祉的决定因素的贡献,对于指导公共卫生政策和预防行为干预非常重要。我们使用几种机器学习方法来建立退伍军人整体幸福感和身体健康的预测模型,作为这三组特征的函数。我们将盖洛普2014年至2017年的美国每日民意调查与人口普查局的邮政编码特征联系起来,涵盖了一系列人口和社会经济特征,以建立整体和身体健康的预测模型。尽管整体幸福感的预测模型表现不佳,但我们对低水平身体幸福感的分类表现得更好。梯度增强带来了最好的结果(准确率为90.2%,召回率为82.4%,AUROC为80.4%),其中对工作目的的感知和财务焦虑是最具预测性的特征。我们的研究结果表明,为了更好地预测身体健康,特别是在退伍军人等弱势群体中,需要额外的社会经济特征指标。可靠和有效的预测模型将提供创造实时和个性化反馈的机会,以帮助个人提高他们的生活质量。
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引用次数: 5
Efecto del género del docente sobre la elección de las carreras de las mujeres: evidencia para Colombia (Teacher's Gender Effect Over Women Career Choice: Evidence for Colombia) 教师性别对女性职业选择的影响:哥伦比亚的证据(教师性别对女性职业选择的影响:哥伦比亚的证据)
Pub Date : 2020-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3596150
Camila Espinosa Borda, H. Bayona-Rodríguez, Hernán Darío Enríquez Sierra
Spanish Abstract: Esta investigación evalúa el efecto de las interacciones entre estudiantes y docentes mujeres de áreas CTIM (Ciencia, Tecnología, Ingeniería y Matemáticas, STEM por sus siglas en inglés) sobre las expectativas de elección de carrera universitaria. Considerando que factores motivacionales afectan la elección de carrera, se usa una aproximación de modelos de rol para explicar esta decisión de las mujeres que están cursando secundaria en Colombia. Esta aproximación se implementa a través de un modelo Logit multinivel que emplea los datos PISA de 2015 a nivel nacional y estima la probabilidad de elegir una carrera CTIM. Los resultados muestran que contar con una docente mujer de áreas CTIM en el colegio no tiene un efecto estadísticamente significativo sobre la expectativa de elección de una carrera CTIM de las mujeres. En contraste, la autoeficacia de las estudiantes tiene efectos positivos sobre la expectativa de elección de carrera en estas mujeres. Adicional, una mujer que cursa el bachillerato en un colegio privado con programa vocacional tiene menor probabilidad de elegir una carrera CTIM que su contraparte en un colegio público con programa vocacional.

English Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the effect of interactions between female students and teachers of Science, Technology, Engeniering and Maths (STEM), over student’s career choice expectative. By the fact that career choice is moved by motivational factors, we use a role model approach to explain the STEM career choice of women at high school in Colombia. This approach is applied through a hierarchical Logit model that uses 2015 PISA data at national level and estimates STEM career choice probability. The results show that interaction between a women student and a STEM woman teacher at school does not have a significative statistical effect over STEM career choice. By contrast, women students autoefficacy has a positive effect over STEM career choice expectative. Further, a woman in a private high school with vocational program has a lower likelihood of choice a STEM career than her partner in a public high school with vocational program.
摘要:本研究评估了科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)领域的女学生和女教师之间的互动对大学职业选择期望的影响。本研究的目的是分析哥伦比亚高中女生在职业选择方面的动机因素。该方法是通过多级Logit模型实现的,该模型使用了2015年全国PISA数据,并估计了选择CTIM职业的概率。结果表明,在学校中有一名女性教师对女性教师职业的选择没有统计学上的显著影响。相比之下,学生的自我效能感对这些女性的职业选择期望有积极的影响。此外,在有职业课程的私立学校就读高中的女性比在有职业课程的公立学校就读的女性更不可能选择CTIM职业。英文摘要:本文旨在分析女学生与科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)教师之间的互动对学生职业选择期望的影响。由于职业选择是由动机因素驱动的,我们采用角色模型方法来解释哥伦比亚高中女性的STEM职业选择。该方法是通过层次逻辑模型应用的,该模型使用2015年PISA全国数据,并估计STEM职业选择概率。结果表明,女学生与女学校STEM教师之间的互动对STEM职业选择没有显著的统计影响。相比之下,女性学生的自我效能感对STEM职业选择期望有积极的影响。此外,参加职业课程的私立高中妇女比参加职业课程的公立高中妇女选择STEM职业的可能性更低。
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引用次数: 0
The Case for Releasing the Young from Lockdown: A Briefing Paper for Policymakers 把年轻人从禁闭中释放出来的理由:给政策制定者的简报
Pub Date : 2020-04-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3573283
A. Oswald, Nattavudh Powdthavee
The UK is 'locked down' because of coronavirus (COVID-19). No clear exit strategy currently exists. This paper suggests a possible way forward that combines elements from economics and epidemiology. The paper proposes as a policy a 'release' from lockdown of the young cohort of UK citizens aged between age 20 and 30 who do not live with parents. The paper calculates that there are approximately 4.2 million UK individuals who fall into this 20-30 ageband and who live outside the original parental home. Of those, 2.6 million work in the private sector, so unless some corrective action is taken they are likely to be extremely harshly affected, financially, when compared to employees in the public sector. The paper argues that a young-workforce release of this kind would lead to substantial economic and societal benefits without enormous health costs to the country. In this way, the nation might begin to move forward in the footsteps of the young. The paper's key concept could in principle be implemented in other countries.
由于冠状病毒(COVID-19),英国被“封锁”。目前还不存在明确的退出策略。本文提出了一种结合经济学和流行病学元素的可行方法。该文件建议作为一项政策,“释放”年龄在20至30岁之间、不与父母同住的年轻英国公民群体。该报告计算出,大约有420万英国人处于20-30岁的年龄段,他们不住在父母原来的家。其中,260万人在私营部门工作,因此,除非采取一些纠正措施,否则与公共部门的雇员相比,他们可能会受到极其严重的经济影响。该论文认为,这种年轻劳动力的释放将带来巨大的经济和社会效益,而不会给国家带来巨大的医疗成本。这样,国家可能会开始沿着年轻人的脚步前进。该文件的关键概念原则上可以在其他国家实施。
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引用次数: 16
IFAD Research Series 48: Rural Youth, Today and Tomorrow 农发基金研究系列48:农村青年,今天和明天
Pub Date : 2020-04-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3567742
B. White
What would it mean to develop a youth-inclusive agricultural and rural development agenda? Agriculture, and particularly smallholder farming, remains the single largest source of youth employment in most low- and middle-income countries but today’s young rural men and women express little interest in agricultural futures. Research on rural youth aspirations suggests that many young people are not averse to agriculture as such, but to agriculture’s current neglected condition and the near impossibility of becoming an independent farmer while still young, due to lack of access to land. A youth-inclusive agricultural and rural development agenda means approaching young people not as instruments of development, but as subjects, actors and citizens.
制定一个包容青年的农业和农村发展议程意味着什么?在大多数低收入和中等收入国家,农业,特别是小农农业,仍然是青年就业的最大单一来源,但今天的农村青年男女对农业的未来几乎没有兴趣。对农村青年愿望的研究表明,许多年轻人并不反对农业本身,而是反对农业目前被忽视的状况,以及由于缺乏获得土地的机会,几乎不可能在年轻时成为独立的农民。包容青年的农业和农村发展议程意味着将青年视为主体、行为者和公民,而不是发展工具。
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引用次数: 3
Differential Effects of the Timing of Divorce on Children's Outcomes: Evidence from Denmark 离婚时间对儿童结局的不同影响:来自丹麦的证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3567651
J. Laird, Nick Fabrin Nielsen, T. Nielsen
Parental divorce is a prevalent childhood event. A long literature attempts to estimate the impact of family dissolution on children's human capital formation. Previous studies applying sibling fixed effects estimators find that the timing of divorce has no direct effects on children's outcomes and conclude that the observed raw associations between child age at parental divorce and adult outcomes are driven by selection of parents into divorce. We apply the same methods on new data sources consisting of the universe of all children that experienced parental divorces in Denmark from 1982 onwards. We find small but precisely estimated negative average effects of early family dissolution on children's human capital formation measured from adolescence to the mid-twenties. By studying additional outcomes, we find significant evidence that parental divorce in early childhood leads to higher risk of mental health problems of children in adulthood. Furthermore, we find suggestive evidence that the timing of divorce plays an especially pertinent role for boys and for children of highly educated parents.
父母离婚是一个普遍的儿童事件。长期文献试图估计家庭解体对儿童人力资本形成的影响。先前应用兄弟姐妹固定效应估计的研究发现,离婚的时间对孩子的结局没有直接影响,并得出结论,观察到的父母离婚时孩子年龄和成年结局之间的原始关联是由父母选择离婚驱动的。我们对新的数据来源采用同样的方法,这些数据来源包括丹麦自1982年以来经历父母离婚的所有儿童。我们发现,早期家庭解体对儿童人力资本形成的负面平均影响很小,但可以精确估计,从青春期到20多岁。通过研究其他结果,我们发现了显著的证据,表明父母在儿童早期离婚会导致儿童成年后出现心理健康问题的风险更高。此外,我们发现暗示的证据表明,离婚的时间对男孩和受过高等教育的父母的孩子起着特别相关的作用。
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引用次数: 2
Saving Motives over the Life-Cycle 生命周期中的储蓄动机
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3585755
S. Pashchenko, Ponpoje Porapakkarm
A major challenge in the study of saving behavior is how to disentangle different motives for saving. We approach this question in the context of an entire life-cycle model. Specifically, we identify the importance of different saving motives by simultaneously accounting for wealth accumulation during working period, wealth decumulation during retirement, and labor supply behavior. We show that exploiting all of these data features can sharpen our identification, thus complementing previous studies that focus only on wealth accumulation or decumulation. We calibrate our model using several micro datasets and use the estimated model to evaluate the contribution of life-cycle, bequest, and precautionary motives to total savings. We also emphasize the importance of accounting for state-contingent assets when analyzing the precautionary saving motive.
研究储蓄行为的一个主要挑战是如何理清不同的储蓄动机。我们在整个生命周期模型的背景下处理这个问题。具体而言,我们通过同时考虑工作期间的财富积累、退休期间的财富积累和劳动力供给行为来确定不同储蓄动机的重要性。我们表明,利用所有这些数据特征可以提高我们的识别能力,从而补充了以前只关注财富积累或积累的研究。我们使用几个微观数据集校准我们的模型,并使用估计模型来评估生命周期、遗赠和预防动机对总储蓄的贡献。在分析预防性储蓄动机时,我们还强调了核算国有或有资产的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Short- and Long-Term Consequences of Serious Parental Health Shocks 严重父母健康冲击的短期和长期后果
Pub Date : 2020-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3564038
I. Kristiansen
I show that serious, yet common, parental health shocks in childhood have immediate and lasting effects on mental health and human capital formation for children. Children who experience a parental health shock are more likely to have therapy and take anti-depressant medication following the shock. These children have lower test scores and school enrollment rates. The effect occurs immediately following the shock and persists at least into early adulthood. I find that the effect on test scores is no different for children in high- and lowincome families, but the families react differently to the shock; children from low-income families are more likely to be prescribed anti-depressants following the shock, while children from high-income families are more likely to have therapy. In addition, I find suggestive evidence that children who take anti-depressants following a parental health shock have lower educational attainments in early adulthood, while therapy doesn't have harmful long-term effects.
我指出,儿童时期父母对健康的严重但普遍的冲击对儿童的心理健康和人力资本的形成具有直接和持久的影响。经历过父母健康冲击的孩子更有可能接受治疗,并在冲击后服用抗抑郁药物。这些孩子的考试成绩和入学率都较低。这种影响在受到冲击后立即发生,并至少持续到成年早期。我发现,高收入家庭和低收入家庭的孩子对考试成绩的影响没有什么不同,但家庭对冲击的反应不同;来自低收入家庭的孩子更有可能在休克后得到抗抑郁药的处方,而来自高收入家庭的孩子更有可能接受治疗。此外,我还发现了一些具有启发性的证据,表明在父母遭受健康冲击后服用抗抑郁药的孩子在成年早期的教育成就较低,而治疗并没有有害的长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
Missing a Nurse Visit 错过护士探视
Pub Date : 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3654922
Miriam Wüst, J. Hirani, H. H. Sievertsen
While a large literature studies the impact of exposure to early-life investment policies, this paper examines the impact of changes within a program, the Danish nurse home visiting program, on child and maternal health. We exploit variation induced by a nurse strike, which resulted in families missing one of the four universally-provided nurse visit. Using variation in children’s age at strike start, we show that early, but not later, strike exposure increases child and mother contacts to health professionals in the first four years after birth. Forgoing an early nurse visit also increases the probability of maternal contacts to mental health specialists in the first four years after childbirth. We highlight two potential channels for these results: screening and information provision. We show that–in non-strike years–nurses perform well in detecting maternal mental health risks during early visits, and that effects of early strike exposure are strongest for families that we expect to benefit most from information provided by nurses shortly after birth. A stylized calculation confirms that short-run health benefits from early universal home visiting outweigh costs.
虽然大量文献研究了接触早期生活投资政策的影响,但本文研究了丹麦护士家访计划中变化对儿童和孕产妇健康的影响。我们利用由护士罢工引起的变异,这导致家庭错过了四个普遍提供的护士访问之一。利用儿童在罢工开始时年龄的变化,我们表明,在出生后的头四年里,早期而不是较晚的罢工暴露增加了儿童和母亲与卫生专业人员的接触。放弃早期的护士访问也增加了产妇在分娩后的头四年与心理健康专家接触的可能性。我们强调了这些结果的两个潜在渠道:筛选和信息提供。我们发现,在非罢工年份,护士在早期检查中发现产妇心理健康风险方面表现良好,而早期罢工暴露对家庭的影响最大,我们预计这些家庭在出生后不久就能从护士提供的信息中获益最多。一项程式化的计算证实,早期全民家访的短期健康效益大于成本。
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引用次数: 0
Gender, Price, and Quantity Effects in U.S. Earnings Inequality: Revisiting Counterfactual Density Estimates 性别、价格和数量对美国收入不平等的影响:重新审视反事实密度估计
Pub Date : 2020-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3688933
Andrew Silva
I decompose changes in the U.S. household earnings distribution from 1975 to 2018 to examine the labor market processes underlying its evolution over time. I model the distri- bution of earnings as a function of price effects (wages) and quantity effects (work hours and household employment), each of which are specified separately for men and women, and apply a semi-parametric density estimation technique to infer their contributions to in- equality measures over time. Results indicate that changes to the male wage distribution explain much of the growth in earnings inequality, but that its contribution varied greatly over time, with peak contributions in the mid 1990s; while changes in female work hours have actually mitigated inequality growth, particularly by raising earnings in the lower and mid portions of the distribution, with very consistent effects over time. These results demonstrate the relevance of work hours in addition to wage rates in explaining earnings inequality, and the importance of gender differences therein.
我对1975年至2018年美国家庭收入分配的变化进行了分解,以研究其随时间演变的劳动力市场过程。我将收入的分布建模为价格效应(工资)和数量效应(工作时间和家庭就业)的函数,其中每一个都是分别为男性和女性指定的,并应用半参数密度估计技术来推断他们对不平等措施的贡献。结果表明,男性工资分配的变化在很大程度上解释了收入不平等的增长,但其贡献随时间变化很大,在20世纪90年代中期达到峰值;虽然女性工作时间的变化实际上缓解了不平等的加剧,特别是通过提高收入分配中低收入部分的收入,并随着时间的推移产生非常一致的影响。这些结果表明,除了工资率之外,工作时间在解释收入不平等方面的相关性,以及性别差异在其中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Diversity to Foster Innovation: Using the Lens of Brazilian Microdata 多样性促进创新:利用巴西微数据的视角
Pub Date : 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3667981
Filipe Lage de Sousa, G. Ferreira, L. Veloso, Synthia Santana
A variety of factors enable firms to innovate and eventually to improve their performance. The contribution of workforce diversity to innovation has been under-explored in empirical work. The main objective of this study was to highlight the relationship between innovation in the Brazilian private sector and workforce diversity by gender, age, and race. Using detailed firm-level data, including an employer-employee dataset, our results suggest that even though some costs are associated with workforce diversity, its benefits can offset them in most innovation outcomes.
各种因素使企业能够创新并最终提高绩效。劳动力多样性对创新的贡献在实证工作中尚未得到充分的探讨。本研究的主要目的是强调巴西私营部门的创新与性别、年龄和种族的劳动力多样性之间的关系。使用详细的公司层面数据,包括雇主-雇员数据集,我们的结果表明,尽管一些成本与劳动力多样性有关,但在大多数创新成果中,其收益可以抵消这些成本。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Labor: Demographics & Economics of the Family eJournal
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