Cornelia Jaspers, José Martin Pujolar, Christine Gawinski, Sanna Majaneva, Maiju Lehtiniemi, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen
Aim
To quantify the connectivity and degree of population differentiation of a planktonic model species along an extreme environmental gradient in order to understand source–sink dynamics and processes leading to local adaptation.
Location
Baltic Sea/North Sea.
Taxon
Scyphozoan Jellyfish Aurelia aurita.
Methods
Levels of genetic connectivity and population differentiation were analyzed by integrating molecular data with 40 years of Lagrangian stepping-stone drift-route simulations. Drifters represented different A. aurita life-stages that were traced over 40 consecutive life-cycles from four empirically confirmed start locations. Suitable habitat for polyp recruitment was parameterized from high-resolution bottom topography maps to allow for stepping-stone range expansion across the Baltic Sea, with additional physiological experiments.
Results
Molecular and drift analyses revealed a large degree of isolation, identifying two major clusters in the Baltic Sea: (1) the low saline central-eastern and (2) the intermediate saline south-western regions, respectively. Additionally, molecular analyses confirmed the southern North Sea as an independent cluster with limited connectivity to the Baltic Sea. The Skagerrak/central North Sea was further confirmed as a transition zone between both regions. Lagrangian simulations suggested only one seeding event from this transition zone (Skagerrak) into the Baltic Sea over the 40-year study period. Furthermore, a 2.5-fold lower genetic diversity in the low saline Baltic relative to the high saline North Sea indicated limited current gene flow. A significant correlation was found between haplotype frequency and salinity in Baltic Sea samples, together with successful settlement of northern Baltic individuals at low salinities.
Main Conclusions
Limited connectivity leads to population differentiation of A. aurita in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, active recruitment at low salinities suggests local adaptation within the low saline Baltic Sea. Local adaptation is likely widespread among Baltic species of marine origin, raising concerns for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management of the Baltic Sea under continued freshening due to climate change.
{"title":"Genetic Differentiation of the Jellyfish Aurelia aurita Along Steep Environmental Gradients","authors":"Cornelia Jaspers, José Martin Pujolar, Christine Gawinski, Sanna Majaneva, Maiju Lehtiniemi, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70099","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To quantify the connectivity and degree of population differentiation of a planktonic model species along an extreme environmental gradient in order to understand source–sink dynamics and processes leading to local adaptation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Baltic Sea/North Sea.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Scyphozoan Jellyfish <i>Aurelia aurita</i>.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Levels of genetic connectivity and population differentiation were analyzed by integrating molecular data with 40 years of Lagrangian stepping-stone drift-route simulations. Drifters represented different <i>A. aurita</i> life-stages that were traced over 40 consecutive life-cycles from four empirically confirmed start locations. Suitable habitat for polyp recruitment was parameterized from high-resolution bottom topography maps to allow for stepping-stone range expansion across the Baltic Sea, with additional physiological experiments.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Molecular and drift analyses revealed a large degree of isolation, identifying two major clusters in the Baltic Sea: (1) the low saline central-eastern and (2) the intermediate saline south-western regions, respectively. Additionally, molecular analyses confirmed the southern North Sea as an independent cluster with limited connectivity to the Baltic Sea. The Skagerrak/central North Sea was further confirmed as a transition zone between both regions. Lagrangian simulations suggested only one seeding event from this transition zone (Skagerrak) into the Baltic Sea over the 40-year study period. Furthermore, a 2.5-fold lower genetic diversity in the low saline Baltic relative to the high saline North Sea indicated limited current gene flow. A significant correlation was found between haplotype frequency and salinity in Baltic Sea samples, together with successful settlement of northern Baltic individuals at low salinities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Limited connectivity leads to population differentiation of <i>A. aurita</i> in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, active recruitment at low salinities suggests local adaptation within the low saline Baltic Sea. Local adaptation is likely widespread among Baltic species of marine origin, raising concerns for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management of the Baltic Sea under continued freshening due to climate change.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145842970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anthony A. Snead, Emerald Lin, Shira Linsk, Lena Olson, Kristin M. Winchell
<div> <section> <h3> Aim</h3> <p>As anthropogenic activities continue, species are exposed to climate change and rapid urbanisation that alter their distribution; however, the relative contributions of climate and anthropogenic influence on species distribution are unknown for most species. We use an environmentally sensitive salamander genus (<i>Eurycea</i>) that occupies urban and forested habitats to test the relative importance of temperature-, precipitation- and urbanisation-related variables before placing these results into a phylogenetic context. We aim to test the impact of climate and urbanisation in driving the distribution of the genus while evaluating patterns of niche conservatism.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Location</h3> <p>Nearctic.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Taxon</h3> <p>Eurycea (Plethodontidae, Lungless Salamanders).</p> </section> <section> <h3> Methods</h3> <p>We developed MAXENT niche models for 13 <i>Eurycea</i> species using bioclimatic and urbanisation-related variables. We assessed the importance of these environmental variables through permutation importance and compared response curves to determine niche overlap. Phylogenetic analyses tested for evolutionary constraints on species responses to environmental factors.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Results</h3> <p>Climatic variables were the primary drivers of <i>Eurycea</i> distributions, while urbanisation-related variables had lower overall importance. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that responses to urbanisation-related factors, specifically impervious surface and human population density, exhibited significant phylogenetic signal, indicating a stronger evolutionary constraint on responses to urbanisation than to climate. While climatic variables showed limited phylogenetic conservatism, niche overlap analyses demonstrated that more closely related species had greater similarity in ecological responses to urbanisation than to climate. Evolutionary history influenced species' ecological tolerances, with some environmental responses more conserved than expected under Brownian motion.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Main Conclusions</h3> <p>Our findings highlight the role of evolutionary history in shaping <i>Eurycea</i> responses to environmental variation. While climatic factors predominantly influence broadscale distributions, urbanisation-related responses are more evolutionarily conserved across the genus. These results suggest that past evolutionary trajectories may constrain species' c
{"title":"Conserved Ecological Responses to Novel Urban Stressors","authors":"Anthony A. Snead, Emerald Lin, Shira Linsk, Lena Olson, Kristin M. Winchell","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70104","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>As anthropogenic activities continue, species are exposed to climate change and rapid urbanisation that alter their distribution; however, the relative contributions of climate and anthropogenic influence on species distribution are unknown for most species. We use an environmentally sensitive salamander genus (<i>Eurycea</i>) that occupies urban and forested habitats to test the relative importance of temperature-, precipitation- and urbanisation-related variables before placing these results into a phylogenetic context. We aim to test the impact of climate and urbanisation in driving the distribution of the genus while evaluating patterns of niche conservatism.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Nearctic.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Eurycea (Plethodontidae, Lungless Salamanders).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We developed MAXENT niche models for 13 <i>Eurycea</i> species using bioclimatic and urbanisation-related variables. We assessed the importance of these environmental variables through permutation importance and compared response curves to determine niche overlap. Phylogenetic analyses tested for evolutionary constraints on species responses to environmental factors.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climatic variables were the primary drivers of <i>Eurycea</i> distributions, while urbanisation-related variables had lower overall importance. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that responses to urbanisation-related factors, specifically impervious surface and human population density, exhibited significant phylogenetic signal, indicating a stronger evolutionary constraint on responses to urbanisation than to climate. While climatic variables showed limited phylogenetic conservatism, niche overlap analyses demonstrated that more closely related species had greater similarity in ecological responses to urbanisation than to climate. Evolutionary history influenced species' ecological tolerances, with some environmental responses more conserved than expected under Brownian motion.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our findings highlight the role of evolutionary history in shaping <i>Eurycea</i> responses to environmental variation. While climatic factors predominantly influence broadscale distributions, urbanisation-related responses are more evolutionarily conserved across the genus. These results suggest that past evolutionary trajectories may constrain species' c","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145852635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pedro Fialho Cordeiro, Marden Seabra Linares, Diego Guimarães Florencio Pujoni, Maria João Feio, Marcos Callisto, Robert M. Hughes, Diego Rodrigues Macedo
Aim
To determine whether regional classification—river typology or ecoregion—better captures the ecological variability of tropical stream ecosystems for biomonitoring purposes.
Location
Three hundred and forty-eight streams located in the São Francisco, Mata Atlântica and Paraná hydrologic units, Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil.
Time Period
Data were collected between 2003 and 2019 as part of regional freshwater monitoring programs conducted by different research projects.
Major Taxa Studied
Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages.
Methods
We evaluated two spatial and hierarchical classification systems: (1) river typology, based on climate, topography and lithology and (2) ecoregions, which consider natural features such as landforms, vegetation, land use and cover and hydrography, to explain variation in benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. We asked: which landscape classification (i.e., river typology or ecoregion) was more effective at representing patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages for stream bioassessment in Minas Gerais state, Brazil?
Results
Level III Ecoregion was the most adequate regional landscape classification for benthic macroinvertebrate data, as it has a better ability to differentiate ecological patterns between groups.
Main Conclusions
Ecoregions offer more ecologically meaningful spatial units for classifying rivers in tropical regions such as southeastern Brazil. Our approach fosters alignment between scientific assessment, legal frameworks and environmental governance, thereby advancing more informed and effective conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems.
{"title":"Defining River Regional Landscape Classifications for Implementing Spatially Extensive Brazilian Stream Assessments","authors":"Pedro Fialho Cordeiro, Marden Seabra Linares, Diego Guimarães Florencio Pujoni, Maria João Feio, Marcos Callisto, Robert M. Hughes, Diego Rodrigues Macedo","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70096","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To determine whether regional classification—river typology or ecoregion—better captures the ecological variability of tropical stream ecosystems for biomonitoring purposes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Three hundred and forty-eight streams located in the São Francisco, Mata Atlântica and Paraná hydrologic units, Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Data were collected between 2003 and 2019 as part of regional freshwater monitoring programs conducted by different research projects.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We evaluated two spatial and hierarchical classification systems: (1) river typology, based on climate, topography and lithology and (2) ecoregions, which consider natural features such as landforms, vegetation, land use and cover and hydrography, to explain variation in benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. We asked: which landscape classification (i.e., river typology or ecoregion) was more effective at representing patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages for stream bioassessment in Minas Gerais state, Brazil?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Level III Ecoregion was the most adequate regional landscape classification for benthic macroinvertebrate data, as it has a better ability to differentiate ecological patterns between groups.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Ecoregions offer more ecologically meaningful spatial units for classifying rivers in tropical regions such as southeastern Brazil. Our approach fosters alignment between scientific assessment, legal frameworks and environmental governance, thereby advancing more informed and effective conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70096","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145848181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sandy Toledo, José Angel García-Beltrán, Ángela Sierra-Almeida, Francisco A. Squeo, Juan Pedro Ferrio, Pablo C. Guerrero
<div> <section> <h3> Aims</h3> <p>Hydrological niche specialisation supports plant survival in hyperarid deserts by enabling access to distinct water sources in space and time. We investigated the isotopic hydrological niches of <i>Eriosyce</i> cacti across arid to hyperarid zones along a 1200 km gradient in the Atacama Desert. Using stable isotopes (δ<sup>2</sup>H, δ<sup>18</sup>O) in root water, we identified their primary water sources and evaluated how geographic and morphological factors shape water-use strategies under extreme environmental constraints.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Location</h3> <p>Atacama Desert, Chile.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Time Period</h3> <p>From June 2021 to November 2023. Data collection was conducted as a single sampling event per population.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3> <p><i>Eriosyce</i> (Cactaceae).</p> </section> <section> <h3> Methods</h3> <p>We quantified the isotopic niches of 323 individuals across 62 populations representing 49 <i>Eriosyce</i> taxa. Deuterium excess was calculated to measure evaporative enrichment, and Bayesian mixing models were applied to characterize water source contributions (fog, rainfall, and snow). We then examined how these patterns relate to root morphology (fibrous, taproot, tuberous) and geographical gradients, using generalized phylogenetic least squares models based on <i>Eriosyce</i> Bayesian phylogeny.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Results</h3> <p>Overall, <i>Eriosyce</i> cacti spanned a broad isotopic spectrum. Fibrous-rooted forms had notably negative Deuterium excess (D-excess), while species with tuberous or taproots displayed more positive values (ANOVA, <i>F</i> = 32.05, <i>p</i> < 0.05). Coastal and central valley populations showed higher D-excess, indicating reliance on isotopically enriched fog, whereas Andean taxa presented lower values (ANOVA, <i>F</i> = 179.6, <i>p</i> < 0.05), reflecting predominant use of rainfall and snow. Geographic variables, especially longitude (<i>p</i> < 0.05), altitude (<i>p</i> < 0.05), distance from the coast (<i>p</i> < 0.001) and the minimum and maximum topographic position indices (<i>p</i> < 0.05) were significant predictors of D-excess in PGLS models.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Main Conclusions</h3> <p>Our findings reveal diverse, locally adapted water-use strategies among <i>Eriosyce</i> cacti, highlighting how hydrologi
{"title":"Geographic Patterns of Fog-Driven Isotopic Niches and Root Adaptations in Cacti Across the Arid-to-Hyperarid Gradients of the Atacama Desert","authors":"Sandy Toledo, José Angel García-Beltrán, Ángela Sierra-Almeida, Francisco A. Squeo, Juan Pedro Ferrio, Pablo C. Guerrero","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70106","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Hydrological niche specialisation supports plant survival in hyperarid deserts by enabling access to distinct water sources in space and time. We investigated the isotopic hydrological niches of <i>Eriosyce</i> cacti across arid to hyperarid zones along a 1200 km gradient in the Atacama Desert. Using stable isotopes (δ<sup>2</sup>H, δ<sup>18</sup>O) in root water, we identified their primary water sources and evaluated how geographic and morphological factors shape water-use strategies under extreme environmental constraints.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Atacama Desert, Chile.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>From June 2021 to November 2023. Data collection was conducted as a single sampling event per population.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p><i>Eriosyce</i> (Cactaceae).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We quantified the isotopic niches of 323 individuals across 62 populations representing 49 <i>Eriosyce</i> taxa. Deuterium excess was calculated to measure evaporative enrichment, and Bayesian mixing models were applied to characterize water source contributions (fog, rainfall, and snow). We then examined how these patterns relate to root morphology (fibrous, taproot, tuberous) and geographical gradients, using generalized phylogenetic least squares models based on <i>Eriosyce</i> Bayesian phylogeny.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Overall, <i>Eriosyce</i> cacti spanned a broad isotopic spectrum. Fibrous-rooted forms had notably negative Deuterium excess (D-excess), while species with tuberous or taproots displayed more positive values (ANOVA, <i>F</i> = 32.05, <i>p</i> < 0.05). Coastal and central valley populations showed higher D-excess, indicating reliance on isotopically enriched fog, whereas Andean taxa presented lower values (ANOVA, <i>F</i> = 179.6, <i>p</i> < 0.05), reflecting predominant use of rainfall and snow. Geographic variables, especially longitude (<i>p</i> < 0.05), altitude (<i>p</i> < 0.05), distance from the coast (<i>p</i> < 0.001) and the minimum and maximum topographic position indices (<i>p</i> < 0.05) were significant predictors of D-excess in PGLS models.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our findings reveal diverse, locally adapted water-use strategies among <i>Eriosyce</i> cacti, highlighting how hydrologi","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145845814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Damiano Baldan, David Cunillera-Montcusí, Marco Reale, Stefano Piani, Fabrizio Gianni, Serena Zunino, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Cosimo Solidoro, Vinko Bandelj
Aim
Climate change affects dramatically biogenic habitats by altering the geographic distribution of the foundational species and the structure of landscapes they form. As a consequence, the associated biotic communities could experience habitat loss and fragmentation. In this paper, we assess how climate change impacts the geographic distribution of Mediterranean seagrass habitats and the cascading effects on the biodiversity of metacommunities they support.
Location
Mediterranean Sea.
Taxon
Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa.
Methods
We employ state-of-the-art physical and biogeochemical data for the Mediterranean Sea to model the seagrass distribution in the present climate using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Based on the identified habitat configuration, we employ a neutral metacommunity model (NMM) to simulate virtual metacommunities structured by stochastic demographic processes and dispersal.
Results
SDMs were fitted with acceptable performances. We show a strong range contraction for both seagrass species (with uncertain predictions for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean), a decrease in alpha diversity of associated communities, and an increase in beta diversity at the Mediterranean scale. Such changes are solely the result of the rearrangement of the landscape caused by climate change and create an offset for any distributional change related to niche effects. For different basins, we show that patterns of alpha diversity under realistic species dispersal are strongly correlated with habitat availability, while beta diversity is largely influenced by the changes in the spatial configuration of seagrass habitats.
Main Conclusions
By highlighting hotspots of metacommunity change linked to habitat fragmentation, our method can be useful for planning conservation and restoration measures at local and regional scales. We show that, besides niche effects, climate change can impact species distribution by altering the landscape structure.
{"title":"Landscape-Mediated Effects of Climate Change on Metacommunities Inhabiting Mediterranean Seagrass","authors":"Damiano Baldan, David Cunillera-Montcusí, Marco Reale, Stefano Piani, Fabrizio Gianni, Serena Zunino, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, Cosimo Solidoro, Vinko Bandelj","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70105","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate change affects dramatically biogenic habitats by altering the geographic distribution of the foundational species and the structure of landscapes they form. As a consequence, the associated biotic communities could experience habitat loss and fragmentation. In this paper, we assess how climate change impacts the geographic distribution of Mediterranean seagrass habitats and the cascading effects on the biodiversity of metacommunities they support.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Mediterranean Sea.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p><i>Posidonia oceanica</i> and <i>Cymodocea nodosa.</i></p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We employ state-of-the-art physical and biogeochemical data for the Mediterranean Sea to model the seagrass distribution in the present climate using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Based on the identified habitat configuration, we employ a neutral metacommunity model (NMM) to simulate virtual metacommunities structured by stochastic demographic processes and dispersal.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>SDMs were fitted with acceptable performances. We show a strong range contraction for both seagrass species (with uncertain predictions for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean), a decrease in alpha diversity of associated communities, and an increase in beta diversity at the Mediterranean scale. Such changes are solely the result of the rearrangement of the landscape caused by climate change and create an offset for any distributional change related to niche effects. For different basins, we show that patterns of alpha diversity under realistic species dispersal are strongly correlated with habitat availability, while beta diversity is largely influenced by the changes in the spatial configuration of seagrass habitats.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>By highlighting hotspots of metacommunity change linked to habitat fragmentation, our method can be useful for planning conservation and restoration measures at local and regional scales. We show that, besides niche effects, climate change can impact species distribution by altering the landscape structure.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70105","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145843005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Weverton Carlos Ferreira Trindade, Victor Zwiener, A. Townsend Peterson, Márcia C. M. Marques
Aim
The underlying processes driving the origin and spatial variation of species richness stand as one of the most fundamental and enigmatic questions in ecology. Here, we assess the roles of water stress, energy availability, climatic seasonality, physiological tolerance to cold extremes, historical climate stability, and topographic heterogeneity in shaping spatial richness variation among various plants of the Atlantic Forest.
Location
Atlantic Forest Hotspot, South America.
Taxon
14,042 species of vascular plants (angiosperms and gymnosperms), including trees, lianas, shrubs, subshrubs, terrestrial herbs, and epiphytic herbs.
Methods
We employed stacked ecological niche modelling to estimate species richness across different plant life forms. We then applied spatial models and hierarchical partitioning to assess the role and significance of each hypothesis in explaining species diversity variation.
Results
Spatial richness variation in the Atlantic Forest results from the interplay of multiple drivers, with effects differing among plant life forms. Overall, regions with higher energy availability, lower temperature seasonality, higher temperature stability but lower precipitation stability over the last 21,000 years, and more complex topography harboured more species. However, the effects of water stress and cold sensitivity contrast among life forms.
Main Conclusions
Observed species richness variation among life forms is primarily rooted in their life-history strategies. Trees and lianas exhibited lower sensitivity to water stress but were less tolerant of cold extremes, whereas subshrubs and terrestrial herbs showed the opposite pattern, with lower tolerance to water stress but greater cold tolerance. Shrubs and epiphytic herbs displayed an intermediate pattern, combining the reduced sensitivity to water stress of trees and lianas with the higher cold tolerance of subshrubs and terrestrial herbs. Our study deepens the understanding of the factors shaping Atlantic Forest diversity and opens new pathways for predicting and managing large-scale impacts of human activities.
{"title":"Life-History Strategies Drive Plant Species Richness Patterns in the Atlantic Forest Hotspot","authors":"Weverton Carlos Ferreira Trindade, Victor Zwiener, A. Townsend Peterson, Márcia C. M. Marques","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70103","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The underlying processes driving the origin and spatial variation of species richness stand as one of the most fundamental and enigmatic questions in ecology. Here, we assess the roles of water stress, energy availability, climatic seasonality, physiological tolerance to cold extremes, historical climate stability, and topographic heterogeneity in shaping spatial richness variation among various plants of the Atlantic Forest.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Atlantic Forest Hotspot, South America.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>14,042 species of vascular plants (angiosperms and gymnosperms), including trees, lianas, shrubs, subshrubs, terrestrial herbs, and epiphytic herbs.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We employed stacked ecological niche modelling to estimate species richness across different plant life forms. We then applied spatial models and hierarchical partitioning to assess the role and significance of each hypothesis in explaining species diversity variation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Spatial richness variation in the Atlantic Forest results from the interplay of multiple drivers, with effects differing among plant life forms. Overall, regions with higher energy availability, lower temperature seasonality, higher temperature stability but lower precipitation stability over the last 21,000 years, and more complex topography harboured more species. However, the effects of water stress and cold sensitivity contrast among life forms.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Observed species richness variation among life forms is primarily rooted in their life-history strategies. Trees and lianas exhibited lower sensitivity to water stress but were less tolerant of cold extremes, whereas subshrubs and terrestrial herbs showed the opposite pattern, with lower tolerance to water stress but greater cold tolerance. Shrubs and epiphytic herbs displayed an intermediate pattern, combining the reduced sensitivity to water stress of trees and lianas with the higher cold tolerance of subshrubs and terrestrial herbs. Our study deepens the understanding of the factors shaping Atlantic Forest diversity and opens new pathways for predicting and managing large-scale impacts of human activities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70103","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145846125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The regular cycling of animal populations has fascinated ecologists for over a century. Some cycling populations have recently however, exhibited instability, often attributed to climate change. Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) cycles are well documented, displaying peaks every 8–11 years. While these cycles have been studied extensively in the core of their distributional range, less is known about snowshoe hare cyclic dynamics along their southern range boundary. We tested the hypotheses that the cycling of southern snowshoe hare populations varies across a latitudinal cline and that populations have exhibited dampening in recent years.
Location
Six latitudinal degrees (44°–49° N) in the Great Lakes region.
Taxon
Snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus).
Methods
Utilising a series of snow track transects across Minnesota and Wisconsin, we examined snowshoe hare cyclicity across a 40-year time series from 1978 to 2022. These transects were grouped into four bands across the Great Lakes region to identify changes across a latitudinal cline. Wavelet analysis was then used to examine shifts in cyclic behaviour across time.
Results
We found evidence of cyclicity across all latitudinal zones and detected a gradient of fading cyclicity along their southern range boundary.
Main Conclusions
Our findings reveal that while snowshoe hare populations along their southern range boundary have previously cycled, in recent years they appear to be destabilising. These observed shifts in cyclic behaviour may be linked to other regional shifts including range contraction and climate change; however, further research investigating the causal mechanisms behind this cyclic loss is needed.
{"title":"Eroding Cycles Along a Southern Range Boundary: Snowshoe Hares in the Great Lakes Region","authors":"Rebecca S. Chandross, Jonathan N. Pauli","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70091","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The regular cycling of animal populations has fascinated ecologists for over a century. Some cycling populations have recently however, exhibited instability, often attributed to climate change. Snowshoe hare (<i>Lepus americanus</i>) cycles are well documented, displaying peaks every 8–11 years. While these cycles have been studied extensively in the core of their distributional range, less is known about snowshoe hare cyclic dynamics along their southern range boundary. We tested the hypotheses that the cycling of southern snowshoe hare populations varies across a latitudinal cline and that populations have exhibited dampening in recent years.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Six latitudinal degrees (44°–49° N) in the Great Lakes region.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Snowshoe hare (<i>Lepus americanus</i>).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Utilising a series of snow track transects across Minnesota and Wisconsin, we examined snowshoe hare cyclicity across a 40-year time series from 1978 to 2022. These transects were grouped into four bands across the Great Lakes region to identify changes across a latitudinal cline. Wavelet analysis was then used to examine shifts in cyclic behaviour across time.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We found evidence of cyclicity across all latitudinal zones and detected a gradient of fading cyclicity along their southern range boundary.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our findings reveal that while snowshoe hare populations along their southern range boundary have previously cycled, in recent years they appear to be destabilising. These observed shifts in cyclic behaviour may be linked to other regional shifts including range contraction and climate change; however, further research investigating the causal mechanisms behind this cyclic loss is needed.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70091","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145843009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ester Premate, Roman Alther, Maja Zagmajster, Florian Altermatt, Cene Fišer
Aim
Multi-faceted and multi-scale biodiversity assessments and disentangling the factors driving the biodiversity patterns are fundamental for effective protection of biodiversity and prediction of future community changes. Despite its importance, groundwater is still a data-deficient and under-studied ecosystem. Here, to fill the knowledge gap, we quantify multiple facets of beta diversity (βD) and identify their drivers on a regional level in a groundwater biodiversity hotspot.
Location
Western Balkans, Europe.
Taxon
Subterranean amphipods of the family Niphargidae.
Methods
We compiled three datasets: distribution, phylogeny, and functional traits of Niphargidae and assessed taxonomic (TβD), phylogenetic (PβD) and functional beta diversity (FβD) at different spatial scales. We evaluated the spatial variability between these different facets and identified the drivers of βD patterns using generalised dissimilarity models (GDMs). Lastly, we constructed null models to test whether geographic distance nonrandomly explains βD in observed groundwater communities.
Results
We found a high βD with a dominant replacement component in all three facets, but their spatial patterns were incongruent. GDMs revealed that geographic distance between communities was by far the most significant predictor of βD in all three facets. Additionally, karst share and maximum temperature were important predictors of TβD and PβD. Both the results of GDMs and null models showed that the decay in community similarity mostly happens at relatively local scales (< 100 km distance) in all three facets.
Main Conclusions
Our results show that βD patterns in groundwater are primarily influenced by geographic distance between communities and are possibly an outcome of dispersal constraints, while the role of ecological factors remains elusive. As there is a high replacement at even relatively local scales (up to 100 km), a strategy for effective groundwater biodiversity protection in the region would require multiple smaller protected areas rather than a few large ones.
{"title":"True Locals: Taxonomic, Phylogenetic and Functional Diversity Level Off at Short Distances in Groundwater Amphipods in the Western Balkans","authors":"Ester Premate, Roman Alther, Maja Zagmajster, Florian Altermatt, Cene Fišer","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70100","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Multi-faceted and multi-scale biodiversity assessments and disentangling the factors driving the biodiversity patterns are fundamental for effective protection of biodiversity and prediction of future community changes. Despite its importance, groundwater is still a data-deficient and under-studied ecosystem. Here, to fill the knowledge gap, we quantify multiple facets of beta diversity (βD) and identify their drivers on a regional level in a groundwater biodiversity hotspot.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Western Balkans, Europe.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Subterranean amphipods of the family Niphargidae.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We compiled three datasets: distribution, phylogeny, and functional traits of Niphargidae and assessed taxonomic (TβD), phylogenetic (PβD) and functional beta diversity (FβD) at different spatial scales. We evaluated the spatial variability between these different facets and identified the drivers of βD patterns using generalised dissimilarity models (GDMs). Lastly, we constructed null models to test whether geographic distance nonrandomly explains βD in observed groundwater communities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We found a high βD with a dominant replacement component in all three facets, but their spatial patterns were incongruent. GDMs revealed that geographic distance between communities was by far the most significant predictor of βD in all three facets. Additionally, karst share and maximum temperature were important predictors of TβD and PβD. Both the results of GDMs and null models showed that the decay in community similarity mostly happens at relatively local scales (< 100 km distance) in all three facets.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our results show that βD patterns in groundwater are primarily influenced by geographic distance between communities and are possibly an outcome of dispersal constraints, while the role of ecological factors remains elusive. As there is a high replacement at even relatively local scales (up to 100 km), a strategy for effective groundwater biodiversity protection in the region would require multiple smaller protected areas rather than a few large ones.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70100","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145848204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div> <section> <h3> Aim</h3> <p>We investigate how species-specific dispersal abilities might influence future Arctic plant distributions and large-scale dynamics at the boreal forest–tundra boundary until 2100.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Location</h3> <p>Circumpolar terrestrial Arctic (boreal forest, taiga and tundra).</p> </section> <section> <h3> Taxon</h3> <p>1550 plant species.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Methods</h3> <p>We developed climate-driven species distribution models (SDM) to predict species-specific emerging climate niches under different climate scenarios. The model was parameterized using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database (GBIF) and temperature and bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA data set. Dispersal rates were assigned to each species using a trait-based approach and were used to predict future habitat with a distance-based probability over time.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Results</h3> <p>Plant species are predicted to occupy on average only 12.3% (1.5–53.9 95% CI) of their emerging climate niches, with half of the species unable to colonise new habitat by 2100 due to limited dispersal distances. In dispersal-limited predictions, migration to higher altitudes played a greater role than northward shifts. Decolonisation by species (extirpation) due to decreasing climate suitability had a larger effect on species composition change compared to dispersal limitations. Boreal tree species were predicted to expand into the tundra, shrinking the treeless areas.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Main Conclusions</h3> <p>Future plant species distributions and resulting large-scale compositions are affected by species-specific dispersal rates. Even though new suitable niches emerge prominently towards the north, higher altitudes might be more relevant given their accessibility by dispersal over the next century. Although climate niche dynamics could support higher plant species richness across the Arctic, overall richness is expected to decline with climate warming due to dispersal limitations. The colonisation of new habitats via dispersal in combination with the decolonisation of former habitats due to declining climatic suitability on a species level is predicted to cause large-scale changes in species composition, especially at the boundary between the boreal forest and the tundra biome.
{"title":"Different Dispersal Rates and Declining Climate Suitability Shape Future Vegetation Compositions Across the Arctic","authors":"Ronja Schwenkler, Ulrike Herzschuh, Luca Zsofia Farkas, Boris Schröder, Simeon Lisovski","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70079","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We investigate how species-specific dispersal abilities might influence future Arctic plant distributions and large-scale dynamics at the boreal forest–tundra boundary until 2100.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Circumpolar terrestrial Arctic (boreal forest, taiga and tundra).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>1550 plant species.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We developed climate-driven species distribution models (SDM) to predict species-specific emerging climate niches under different climate scenarios. The model was parameterized using occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database (GBIF) and temperature and bioclimatic variables from the CHELSA data set. Dispersal rates were assigned to each species using a trait-based approach and were used to predict future habitat with a distance-based probability over time.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Plant species are predicted to occupy on average only 12.3% (1.5–53.9 95% CI) of their emerging climate niches, with half of the species unable to colonise new habitat by 2100 due to limited dispersal distances. In dispersal-limited predictions, migration to higher altitudes played a greater role than northward shifts. Decolonisation by species (extirpation) due to decreasing climate suitability had a larger effect on species composition change compared to dispersal limitations. Boreal tree species were predicted to expand into the tundra, shrinking the treeless areas.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Future plant species distributions and resulting large-scale compositions are affected by species-specific dispersal rates. Even though new suitable niches emerge prominently towards the north, higher altitudes might be more relevant given their accessibility by dispersal over the next century. Although climate niche dynamics could support higher plant species richness across the Arctic, overall richness is expected to decline with climate warming due to dispersal limitations. The colonisation of new habitats via dispersal in combination with the decolonisation of former habitats due to declining climatic suitability on a species level is predicted to cause large-scale changes in species composition, especially at the boundary between the boreal forest and the tundra biome.","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.70079","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145842977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pau Lucio-Puig, Virginia Garófano-Gómez, Sergio Morell-Monzó, Juan S. Monrós, Alejandro Onrubia, Francisco A. García-Castellanos, Diana Ferrís, Mariano Paracuellos, Rafael Muñoz-Mas
<div> <section> <h3> Aim</h3> <p>To assess the extent to which climatic, environmental, geographic and sampling-related variables shaped species composition and the components of β-diversity (turnover and nestedness) in wintering bird communities during the last 25 years across the eastern Iberian Peninsula.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Location</h3> <p>Eastern Iberian Peninsula, across 78 sites in Spain.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Taxon</h3> <p>Ninety seven thousand one hundred and ninety-seven birds ringed and recorded from December to February between 1997 and 2022.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Methods</h3> <p>We used Mixed Graphical Models (Graphical Lasso) to study the covariation between environmental and geographic variables and taxonomy-based components of β-diversity (turnover and nestedness), accounting for differences in the sampling efforts. Additionally, we analysed the associations between individual species abundances, overall species richness and the environmental variables. The resulting species groupings were further tested for trait-based patterns. Finally, we assessed spatiotemporal trends in bird abundance, presence–absence data and climatic variables to evaluate potential long-term changes.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Results</h3> <p>Our results indicate that spatial turnover was the dominant process shaping β-diversity across study sites. The Mixed Graphical Models revealed that dissimilarity in elevation, habitat and sampling effort primarily drove turnover and nestedness, and that the assemblages remained largely stable during the 25-year study period. Overall, species presence was associated with site-specific factors, while species richness was incidentally correlated positively with eight forest bird species. Only six species exhibited significant trends driven solely by temporal effects, whereas most species were driven by longitude alone or combined spatiotemporal factors, suggesting strong site-specific responses and no consistent general pattern in the region. Although not statistically significant, maximum temperature variables exhibited a positive temporal trend, suggesting gradual warming on the condition preceding each survey during the study period.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Main Conclusions</h3> <p>The stability in wintering bird assemblages in the Iberian Peninsula may be attributed to its geographical position in temperate zones, which could reduce the sensitivity of bird assemblages to climatic variability at intermediat
{"title":"Geography and Site-Specific Factors, Rather Than Recent Climate, Dominated Spanish Wintering Bird Communities","authors":"Pau Lucio-Puig, Virginia Garófano-Gómez, Sergio Morell-Monzó, Juan S. Monrós, Alejandro Onrubia, Francisco A. García-Castellanos, Diana Ferrís, Mariano Paracuellos, Rafael Muñoz-Mas","doi":"10.1111/jbi.70097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.70097","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To assess the extent to which climatic, environmental, geographic and sampling-related variables shaped species composition and the components of β-diversity (turnover and nestedness) in wintering bird communities during the last 25 years across the eastern Iberian Peninsula.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Eastern Iberian Peninsula, across 78 sites in Spain.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxon</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Ninety seven thousand one hundred and ninety-seven birds ringed and recorded from December to February between 1997 and 2022.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We used Mixed Graphical Models (Graphical Lasso) to study the covariation between environmental and geographic variables and taxonomy-based components of β-diversity (turnover and nestedness), accounting for differences in the sampling efforts. Additionally, we analysed the associations between individual species abundances, overall species richness and the environmental variables. The resulting species groupings were further tested for trait-based patterns. Finally, we assessed spatiotemporal trends in bird abundance, presence–absence data and climatic variables to evaluate potential long-term changes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our results indicate that spatial turnover was the dominant process shaping β-diversity across study sites. The Mixed Graphical Models revealed that dissimilarity in elevation, habitat and sampling effort primarily drove turnover and nestedness, and that the assemblages remained largely stable during the 25-year study period. Overall, species presence was associated with site-specific factors, while species richness was incidentally correlated positively with eight forest bird species. Only six species exhibited significant trends driven solely by temporal effects, whereas most species were driven by longitude alone or combined spatiotemporal factors, suggesting strong site-specific responses and no consistent general pattern in the region. Although not statistically significant, maximum temperature variables exhibited a positive temporal trend, suggesting gradual warming on the condition preceding each survey during the study period.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The stability in wintering bird assemblages in the Iberian Peninsula may be attributed to its geographical position in temperate zones, which could reduce the sensitivity of bird assemblages to climatic variability at intermediat","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145848175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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