Journal of Environmental Economics and Management最新文献

英文中文

Prescribed fires as a climate change adaptation tool

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103081

Yukiko Hashida , David J. Lewis , Karen Cummins

Climate change has been shown to increase wildfire risk, while prescribed burning is a potential management action that landowners can perform to adapt to such climate-driven changes in risk. This study builds off natural resource economic theory to illustrate how wildfire is jointly determined with privately optimal prescribed burn decisions by landowners. We use panel data on prescribed burn permits across the southeastern U.S. states to empirically estimate (i) how climate and previous large wildfire events affect prescribed burn decisions and (ii) how climate and prescribed burning affect the occurrence of large wildfires. Based on an instrumental variables identification strategy, our estimated simultaneous system finds that a hotter and drier climate will increase prescribed burning, with landowner adaptation to corresponding wildfire risk being a key mechanism. By 2050, we find that a hotter and drier future climate will increase the number of large wildfires from 27 per year under current conditions to 36 per year with climate change but no climate adaptation, and 29 large wildfires per year with both climate change and climate adaptation. This paper provides intuition and quantitative evidence regarding the interaction between climate, wildfire, and landowner management adaptation.

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引用次数: 0

Heat and humidity on early-life outcomes: Evidence from Mexico 高温和湿度对生命早期结果的影响：来自墨西哥的证据

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103082

Yumin Hong

I provide evidence on the detrimental effect of in utero exposure to heat and humidity on children’s health at birth in a middle-income country, Mexico. Humidity affects the body’s ability to regulate heat via perspiration and may thus exacerbate the adverse effects of high temperatures. I link temperature and humidity exposure during pregnancy to individual outcomes regarding 25 million births and stillbirths from 2008 through 2021 using Mexican administrative records. The results show that high wet-bulb temperatures adversely affect birth outcomes. Specifically, each additional day per month with a wet-bulb temperature above 24°C (equivalent to about 40°C at 25% humidity) reduces birth weight by 1.21% and increases the likelihood of preterm birth by 2%. I find that the combined effects of humidity and high temperature on birth outcomes are greater than that of high temperature alone, suggesting that the damaging effects of high temperature can be underestimated when humidity is not accounted for. I also present evidence that the adverse effects of heat on health at birth can be mitigated by adopting air conditioning.

我提供了证据，证明在中等收入国家墨西哥，子宫内暴露于高温和潮湿环境对儿童出生时健康的有害影响。湿度会影响人体通过排汗调节热量的能力，从而可能加剧高温的不利影响。我利用墨西哥的行政记录，将怀孕期间的温度和湿度暴露与2008年至2021年2500万例分娩和死产的个体结果联系起来。结果表明，高湿球温度对出生结果有不利影响。具体来说，每月湿球温度每增加一天高于24°C（相当于25%湿度下约40°C），出生体重就会减少1.21%，早产的可能性增加2%。我发现，湿度和高温对出生结果的综合影响大于高温单独的影响，这表明，如果不考虑湿度，高温的破坏性影响可能会被低估。我还提出证据表明，热对出生时健康的不利影响可以通过采用空调来减轻。

引用次数: 0

The dynamic effects of weather shocks on agricultural production 气候冲击对农业生产的动态影响

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103078

Cédric Crofils , Ewen Gallic , Gauthier Vermandel

This paper proposes a new methodological approach using high-frequency data and local projections to assess the impact of weather on agricultural production. Local projections capture both immediate and delayed effects across crop types and growth stages, while providing early warnings for food shortages. Adverse weather shocks, such as excess heat or rain, consistently lead to delayed downturns in production, with heterogeneous effects across time, crops, and seasons. We build a new index of aggregate weather shocks that accounts for the typical delay between event occurrence and economic recognition, finding that these shocks are recessionary at the macroeconomic level, reducing inflation, production, exports and exchange rates.

本文提出了一种利用高频数据和当地预测来评估天气对农业生产影响的新方法。当地的预测反映了作物类型和生长阶段的即时和延迟影响，同时提供了粮食短缺的早期预警。不利的天气冲击，如过热或降雨，总是导致延迟的生产下降，并在不同的时间、作物和季节产生不同的影响。我们建立了一个新的综合天气冲击指数，该指数解释了事件发生和经济认识之间的典型延迟，发现这些冲击在宏观经济层面上是衰退的，降低了通货膨胀、生产、出口和汇率。

引用次数: 0

Compensating against fuel price inflation: Price subsidies or transfers? 补偿燃料价格上涨：价格补贴还是转移支付？

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103079

Odran Bonnet , Étienne Fize , Tristan Loisel , Lionel Wilner

Compensating agents against substantial and sudden shocks requires both targeting tax policies and taking behavioral responses into account. Based on transaction-level data from France, this article exploits quasi-experimental variation provided by 2022 fuel price inflation and excise tax cuts. After disentangling anticipation from price effects, we estimate a price elasticity of fuel demand of −0.31, on average, which varies little with respect to income and location but substantially decreases with fuel spending, in absolute value. Using targeted transfers only achieves imperfect compensation, yet a budget-constrained policy-maker seeking to alleviate excessive losses relative to income prefers income-based transfers to price subsidies.

补偿代理人免受重大和突然的冲击，既需要有针对性的税收政策，也需要考虑到行为反应。本文基于法国的交易级数据，利用2022年燃料价格通胀和消费税削减提供的准实验性变化。在从价格效应中分离预期后，我们估计燃料需求的价格弹性平均为- 0.31，其绝对值与收入和位置的变化不大，但与燃料支出的绝对值大幅下降。使用定向转移支付只能实现不完美的补偿，然而预算受限的政策制定者为了减轻相对于收入的过度损失，更倾向于基于收入的转移支付，而不是价格补贴。

引用次数: 0

A general equilibrium approach to carbon permit banking 碳许可银行的一般均衡方法

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103076

Loick Dubois , Jean-Guillaume Sahuc , Gauthier Vermandel

We study the general equilibrium effects of carbon permit banking during the transition to a climate-neutral economy by 2050. To this end, we develop an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in which the business sector is regulated by a generic emission trading system (ETS). Firms are authorized to transfer unused permits from one period to the next (banking), but the reverse direction (borrowing) is prohibited. Allowing for positive banking gives firms the opportunity to smooth their permit demand along the business cycle. Applications inspired by recent European Union-ETS regulations underscore the critical role of permit banking in shaping policy outcomes. For example, the 2023 cap reform would result in a more significant reduction in both permit banking and carbon emissions, as well as a 40

%

to 50

%

increase in the carbon price compared to pre-reform projections, without substantial additional GDP loss by 2060. Importantly, forgetting about permit banking when assessing cap policies would lead to both a significant underestimation of the total macroeconomic effects and an inaccurate representation of the carbon emission trajectory.

我们研究了碳许可银行在 2050 年前向气候中性经济过渡期间的一般均衡效应。为此，我们建立了一个环境动态随机一般均衡模型，在该模型中，企业部门受通用排放交易体系（ETS）的监管。企业有权将未使用的许可证从一个时期转移到下一个时期（银行业务），但禁止反向转移（借贷）。允许正向银行业务为企业提供了在商业周期中平滑许可证需求的机会。受欧盟最近的排放交易计划法规启发而产生的应用强调了许可银行在影响政策结果方面的关键作用。例如，与改革前的预测相比，2023 年的上限改革将导致许可银行业务和碳排放量的大幅减少，以及碳价格 40% 至 50% 的增长，而到 2060 年，GDP 不会有实质性的额外损失。重要的是，如果在评估上限政策时忘记许可证银行业务，将导致对宏观经济总效应的严重低估和对碳排放轨迹的不准确表述。

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引用次数: 0

Environmental taxes, offshoring and welfare: The effects of environmental damage and pollution intensity

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103075

Takeshi Iida , Arijit Mukherjee

We analyze the effects of domestic environmental damage and pollution intensity on a monopolist final good producer’s incentive for offshoring a critical intermediate good. Contrary to the usual pollution haven hypothesis, we find that a higher domestic environmental damage, which creates a higher domestic environmental tax, may decrease the incentive for offshoring. This trend is enhanced by a higher pollution intensity of the final good production. Hence, a lower pollution intensity of the final good production may increase offshoring and pollution leakage. Offshoring in our analysis can be excessive or insufficient from the point of view of the domestic country.

引用次数: 0

Raided by the storm: How three decades of thunderstorms shaped U.S. incomes and wages 被风暴袭击：三十年的暴风雨如何影响美国的收入和工资

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103074

Matteo Coronese , Federico Crippa , Francesco Lamperti , Francesca Chiaromonte , Andrea Roventini

Climate change and weather events are increasingly affecting the macroeconomic performance of countries and regions. However, their effects on income inequality are less understood. We estimate the dynamic impact of thunderstorms on income and wages and reveal a robust asymmetric effect. We leverage a comprehensive dataset covering more than 200,000 events affecting contiguous U.S. counties across three decades. Storms have caused the highest number of billion-dollar disaster events since the eighties, but they have the lowest average event cost. They are short-lived, locally confined, relatively frequent, difficult-to-predict, and hazardous albeit not fully destructive events. While such features are convenient for the identification of impacts, previous studies mostly focused on more extreme events. We document a robust negative association between storm activity, income and wages growth. While income tends to recover in the long run, wages exhibit a significantly more stubborn decline, suggesting persistent and adverse impacts on (functional) income inequality. A one standard deviation increase in wind exposure generates a loss of 0.15% (0.21%) in wages after three (nine) years; incomes fall by a larger extent initially (0.19% after three years) while fully recovering in the longer run. In addition to their notable asymmetry, such estimates are non-negligible—especially given the downward rigidity of U.S. wages. Our analyses also highlight a lack of effective adaptation and stronger negative impacts in economically disadvantaged regions. Finally, we find evidence for a sizable shock-absorbing role of federal assistance.

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引用次数: 0

Polluting my downwind neighbor: Evidence of interjurisdictional free riding from air polluter locations in China 污染我的下风邻居：从中国空气污染地点看辖区间免费搭车的证据

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103077

Zheng Li

Based on comprehensive firm-level datasets and wind pattern information in China, I find evidence of the ‘polluting my neighbor’ phenomenon at the provincial level. Large air-polluting manufacturing firms tend to be disproportionately situated near downwind borders, particularly when wind speeds are lower. Quantitatively, the expected number of new large air polluters (top 10%) in a county-year cell decreases by 11% as the county’s distance to the downwind province border increases by one standard deviation (192 km). Additionally, a one-standard-deviation (0.27 m/s) increase in wind speed reduces the expected number of large air polluters by 6% in counties 100 km closer to the downwind border. The results are robust across various empirical strategies and withstand multiple placebo tests and robustness checks. This finding is predominantly driven by top 10% largest air polluters since placing larger polluters closer to the border can externalize more environmental costs. Furthermore, I demonstrate that this strategic siting of air polluters leads to air quality inequality, disproportionately affecting socioeconomically disadvantaged populations in downwind areas within a province.

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引用次数: 0

Unintended environmental consequences of anti-corruption strategies 反腐败战略的意外环境后果

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103073

Elías Cisneros , Krisztina Kis-Katos

High agricultural profits motivate politicians to collude with local elites and ignore illegal conversion of natural forests. Fighting corruption through fiscal audits can improve local governance in general but may also unintentionally intensify such collusion and rent extraction activities within the less scrutinized forestry sector. This paper highlights such unintended consequences of a federal anti-corruption strategy in Brazil by documenting the causal effects of randomized fiscal audits on deforestation dynamics, a non-targeted outcome. Between 2003 and 2011, public audits of federal funds increased deforestation by about 10% in municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon within the first three years after the audit. The audits triggered forest loss, especially during election years, in municipalities governed by first-term mayors who managed to win re-elections afterwards, and in places with a high share of cattle ranching, indicating potential collusion between local politicians and the agricultural sector.

高额的农业利润促使政客与地方精英勾结，无视天然林的非法转换。通过财政审计打击腐败可以从总体上改善地方治理，但也可能无意中加剧林业部门中的这种勾结和租金榨取活动。本文通过记录随机财政审计对森林砍伐动态（一种非目标结果）的因果效应，强调了巴西联邦反腐战略的这种意外后果。2003 年至 2011 年间，对联邦资金的公开审计使巴西亚马逊地区各市在审计后的头三年内森林砍伐量增加了约 10%。审计引发了森林损失，尤其是在选举年，在由首任市长治理的城市，这些市长在选举后设法赢得连任，在牧牛比例较高的地方，这表明当地政客和农业部门之间可能存在勾结。

引用次数: 0

Blowin’ in the wind: Long-term downwind exposure to air pollution from power plants and adult mortality 随风飘荡长期顺风接触发电厂空气污染与成人死亡率

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103072

Shinsuke Tanaka

We estimate the causal effects of long-term exposure to air pollution emitted from fossil fuel power plants on adult mortality. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in daily wind patterns, which is further instrumented by the county orientation from the nearest power plant. We find that the county’s fraction of days spent downwind of plants within 20 miles in the last 10 years is associated with increased mortality from COVID-19 through the third peak in mortality in January 2021. This effect is more pronounced in fenceline communities with high poverty rates, low health insurance coverage, and low educational attainment.

我们估算了长期暴露于化石燃料发电厂排放的空气污染对成人死亡率的因果效应。我们利用每日风向模式的准实验性变化，并通过县城与最近发电厂的距离来进一步确定风向模式。我们发现，从 COVID-19 到 2021 年 1 月的第三个死亡率高峰期，过去 10 年中该县在 20 英里范围内的发电厂下风处度过的天数比例与死亡率的增加有关。这种效应在贫困率高、医疗保险覆盖率低和教育程度低的边缘社区更为明显。

引用次数: 0

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