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Transmission of flood damage to the real economy and financial intermediation: Simulation analysis using a DSGE model 洪水灾害对实体经济和金融中介的影响:利用 DSGE 模型进行模拟分析
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103058
Ryuichiro Hashimoto , Nao Sudo
We assess physical risk associated with floods in Japan, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We construct a model that incorporates transmission mechanism of floods and estimate the model using the data of flood-induced damage to capital stock and public infrastructure collected by the government in the last 40 years. The result of the analysis is threefold. First, a flood that reduces the private capital stock by about 0.1% as a direct effect causes GDP to fall by about 0.1% in the first period, with a gradual recovery to pre-flood level. Second, floods dampen GDP through multiple channels. From the supply side, a decline in capital stock inputs and total factor productivity (TFP) reduce GDP. From the demand side, the balance sheets of firms and financial intermediaries are impaired, resulting in disruptions to financial intermediation and depressing GDP. Based on our estimates, all these channels are quantitatively comparable in magnitude. Third, the quantitative impacts of flood shocks on GDP up to now have been minor compared to the standard structural shocks that are considered important in existing macroeconomic studies. However, according to the estimates that use the relationship between the key variables in our model together with climate change scenarios published by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the impacts of these shocks could become somewhat larger in the future.
我们利用动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型评估了日本与洪水相关的有形风险。我们构建了一个包含洪水传导机制的模型,并利用政府在过去 40 年中收集的洪水对资本存量和公共基础设施造成的损害数据对模型进行了估算。分析结果有三个方面。首先,洪水直接导致私人资本存量减少约 0.1%,从而导致国内生产总值在第一阶段下降约 0.1%,然后逐渐恢复到洪水前的水平。其次,洪水通过多种渠道抑制国内生产总值。从供给方面看,资本存量投入和全要素生产率(TFP)的下降会降低国内生产总值。从需求方面看,企业和金融中介机构的资产负债表受损,导致金融中介活动中断,从而抑制国内生产总值。根据我们的估计,所有这些渠道在数量上都具有可比性。第三,与现有宏观经济研究中认为重要的标准结构性冲击相比,洪水冲击到目前为止对国内生产总值的定量影响较小。然而,根据绿化金融体系网络(NGFS)发布的利用我们模型中关键变量之间的关系以及气候变化情景的估算,这些冲击的影响在未来可能会变得更大。
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引用次数: 0
Do green parties affect local waste management policies? 绿党是否会影响当地的废物管理政策?
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103056
Augusto Cerqua , Nadia Fiorino , Emma Galli

We explore whether mayors supported by pro-environmental parties enhance local environmental outcomes compared to their non-environmental counterparts. We study close elections within a regression discontinuity design and find a notable rise in recycling rates in Italian municipalities governed by pro-environmental coalitions. This uptick becomes far less pronounced when adopting broader criteria to define green mayoral candidates. Crucially, the enhanced recycling rates are not realized through augmented budgets for environmental initiatives or waste collection, but rather are primarily attributed to the implementation of local policies, such as on-call waste collection and the establishment of waste collection centers.

我们探讨了与非环保党派的市长相比,环保党派支持的市长是否会提高当地的环保成果。我们在回归不连续设计中研究了近距离选举,发现在亲环境联盟治理的意大利城市中,回收率显著上升。如果采用更宽泛的标准来定义绿色市长候选人,这种上升就不那么明显了。重要的是,回收率的提高并不是通过增加环保措施或废物收集的预算实现的,而是主要归功于地方政策的实施,如随叫随到的废物收集和废物收集中心的建立。
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引用次数: 0
Rainwater shocks and economic growth: The role of the water cycle partition 雨水冲击与经济增长:水循环分区的作用
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103047
François Bareille , Raja Chakir , Charles Regnacq

This paper improves our understanding of how rainwater impacts economic growth by investigating the effects of overlooked properties of the water cycle. First, we consider the natural separation of rainwater into flows of blue water (i.e., the water that runs off towards rivers) and green water (i.e., that remaining in the soil). Second, we account for the presence of surface and groundwater stocks. These considerations allow us to comprehensively address the whole partition of rainwater, which, upon reaching the ground, splits into distinct water resources that determine water availability inland. Our analyses on a global panel coupling sub-national economic and hydrological data show that rainwater does increase growth, but do so differently depending on its partition. Specifically, blue water leads to more economic growth than green water at the margin, but, because two thirds of terrestrial water is green, the latter contributes more to growth in total. By missing this crucial partition, we find that commonly used rainwater measurements overstate rainwater’s contribution to growth (by about two). Our analyses further indicate that, although groundwater reserves always mitigate the impacts of rainwater reduction on growth, surface water reserves sometimes amplify regional dependence to rainwater (depending on sector, income and reserve types).

本文通过研究被忽视的水循环特性的影响,加深了我们对雨水如何影响经济增长的理解。首先,我们考虑了雨水自然分离为蓝水(即流向河流的水)和绿水(即留在土壤中的水)的情况。其次,我们考虑了地表水和地下水存量的存在。这些考虑因素使我们能够全面解决雨水的整体分区问题,雨水到达地面后会分成不同的水资源,这些水资源决定了内陆地区的供水量。我们对国家以下各级经济和水文数据进行的全球面板耦合分析表明,雨水确实能促进经济增长,但其作用因雨水分区的不同而不同。具体来说,蓝水比绿水在边际上带来更多的经济增长,但由于三分之二的陆地水是绿水,后者对总增长的贡献更大。由于忽略了这一关键的分区,我们发现常用的雨水测量方法高估了雨水对经济增长的贡献(大约高出两倍)。我们的分析进一步表明,虽然地下水储备总是能减轻雨水减少对增长的影响,但地表水储备有时会扩大地区对雨水的依赖(取决于行业、收入和储备类型)。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental protection for bureaucratic promotion: Water quality performance review of provincial governors in China 环境保护促进官僚晋升:中国省长的水质绩效考核
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103060
Liguo Lin , Wei Sun , Jinhua Zhao
We show including quantitative environmental targets for bureaucratic promotion incentivizes government officials to enforce environmental regulation but at significant economic costs. Taking advantage of the gradual expansion of China's water quality performance review (WQPR) over time and space, we find that WQPR significantly reduced ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants, digestive cancer mortality, and GDP growth rate. WQPR's effects are more pronounced along provincial borders, which are targeted by WQPR, and when provincial governors have more promotion potential. An important mechanism is investment in wastewater treatment facilities. There is evidence that WQPR passed the benefit-cost test, especially in rural areas.
我们的研究表明,在官僚晋升中加入定量环境目标可以激励政府官员执行环境法规,但却要付出巨大的经济成本。利用中国水质绩效考核(WQPR)在时间和空间上的逐步扩大,我们发现 WQPR 显著降低了标准污染物的环境浓度、消化道癌症死亡率和 GDP 增长率。水质绩效考核针对的是省际边界地区,当省长有更大的晋升潜力时,水质绩效考核的效果会更加明显。一个重要的机制是对污水处理设施的投资。有证据表明,WQPR 通过了效益-成本测试,尤其是在农村地区。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-dynastic intergenerational altruism 跨代代际利他主义
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103059
Frikk Nesje

Does saving behavior reveal socially relevant intertemporal preferences? People concerned about the next generation as such might assign welfare weights on other dynasties. These concerns are captured in a model of saving by decomposing the present generation’s preference for the next into its dynastic and cross-dynastic components. With such preferences, saving for one’s descendants benefits present members of other dynasties if they also care cross-dynastically. These preference externalities imply that socially relevant intertemporal preferences cannot be inferred from saving behavior and that utility discount rates revealed by saving behavior should be lowered. The external effect of present saving also decreases over time, implying that intertemporal preferences inferred from saving behavior are time-inconsistent.

储蓄行为是否揭示了与社会相关的时际偏好?关心下一代的人可能会对其他朝代赋予福利权重。通过将当代人对下一代的偏好分解为朝代和跨朝代部分,我们可以在储蓄模型中捕捉到这些关注。在这种偏好下,如果其他朝代的现任成员也有跨朝代的偏好,那么为自己的后代储蓄就会使他们受益。这些偏好的外部性意味着不能从储蓄行为中推断出与社会相关的时际偏好,储蓄行为所揭示的效用贴现率应该降低。当前储蓄的外部效应也会随着时间的推移而降低,这意味着从储蓄行为中推断出的跨时偏好与时间不一致。
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引用次数: 0
Paying income tax after a natural disaster 自然灾害后缴纳所得税
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103044
Merve Kucuk , Mehmet Ulubasoglu

We investigate the effects of a climatic shock on individuals’ tax deduction and tax payable patterns, alongside their income dynamics. Using individual-level annual tax return data and exploiting the 2010–2011 Queensland Floods in Australia as a natural experiment, we find that the floods affect different income groups differently. They also lead to persistent higher tax deductions for high-income taxpayers. For the population at large, we detect spikes in certain tax deduction items that lasted longer than the income shock. Overall, our findings uncover discernible changes in tax deduction patterns following floods.

我们研究了气候冲击对个人减税和纳税模式的影响,以及他们的收入动态。通过使用个人层面的年度纳税申报数据,并利用 2010-2011 年澳大利亚昆士兰洪灾作为自然实验,我们发现洪灾对不同收入群体的影响是不同的。洪灾还导致高收入纳税人的减税额度持续增加。就总体而言,我们发现某些减税项目的峰值比收入冲击持续的时间更长。总体而言,我们的研究结果揭示了洪灾后减税模式的明显变化。
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引用次数: 0
Barrett's paradox of cooperation: A full analytical proof 30 years after 巴雷特合作悖论:30 年后的全面分析证明
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103045
Michael Finus , Francesco Furini , Anna Viktoria Rohrer
In his seminal paper, Barrett (1994) argues that international environmental agreements (IEAs) are typically not successful, which he coined "the paradox of cooperation". If the potential gains from full cooperation would be large, self-enforcing IEAs have low participation and, therefore, cannot achieve much, or, if the potential gains are small, agreements are not important, even though IEAs may enjoy large participation. This message has been reiterated by several subsequent papers. Even though these papers explain the driving forces of the paradox, the analysis of membership in stable agreements and the actual and potential gains from cooperation are still mainly based on simulations. In this paper, we provide a full analytical characterization of all items on which the paradox of cooperation is based.
巴雷特(Barrett,1994 年)在其开创性论文中指出,国际环境协定(IEAs)通常并不成功,他将其称为 "合作悖论"。如果全面合作的潜在收益很大,那么自我强化的国际环境协定的参与度就很低,因此无法取得很大成就;或者,如果潜在收益很小,那么即使国际环境协定的参与度很高,协定也并不重要。随后的几篇论文都重申了这一观点。尽管这些论文解释了悖论的驱动力,但对稳定协议成员资格以及合作的实际和潜在收益的分析仍主要基于模拟。在本文中,我们对合作悖论所依据的所有项目进行了全面的分析。
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引用次数: 0
Correcting misperceptions about trends and norms to address weak collective action — Experimental evidence from a recycling program 纠正对趋势和规范的误解,解决集体行动不力的问题--来自回收计划的实验证据
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103046
Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel , Ben D’Exelle , Kristian López Vargas , Sebastian Tonke , Arjan Verschoor

Finding ways to encourage collective action in contexts where only a minority adopts the desired behavior is central to solving many of today’s global environmental problems. We study how correcting people’s beliefs about social norms and behavioral trends encourages collective action in a setting where the desired behavior is not yet prevalent. In a field experiment, we test whether low sign-up rates for a recycling program in urban Peru can be increased by providing information (1) that most people regard participation in the program as important, i.e., on the “injunctive norm”, (2) on an increasing recent trend in sign-up rates. We find that the effectiveness of the treatments depends on people’s prior beliefs: Correcting inaccurate beliefs increases sign-up decisions significantly among people who either substantially underestimate the injunctive norm or who underestimate the positive trend. As this sub-group of people is in the minority in our set-up, we do not observe statistically significant average treatment effects. We further find that the effects of the treatments increase in the level of underestimation. Our evidence demonstrates that belief updating can be used effectively to encourage collective action where it is weak as long as a meaningful number of people underestimates the relevant trends and norms.

在只有少数人采取理想行为的情况下,找到鼓励集体行动的方法是解决当今许多全球环境问题的核心。我们研究了在理想行为尚未普及的情况下,纠正人们对社会规范和行为趋势的看法如何鼓励集体行动。在一个现场实验中,我们测试了秘鲁城市回收计划的低报名率是否可以通过提供以下信息来提高:(1)大多数人认为参与该计划很重要,即 "强制规范";(2)报名率最近呈上升趋势。我们发现,治疗的效果取决于人们先前的信念:对那些严重低估禁令标准或低估积极趋势的人来说,纠正不准确的信念会显著提高他们的签约决定。由于这部分人在我们的设置中占少数,我们没有观察到统计意义上显著的平均治疗效果。我们还发现,随着低估程度的增加,治疗效果也会增加。我们的证据表明,只要有相当数量的人低估了相关趋势和规范,就可以有效地利用信念更新来鼓励集体行动。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental regulation and intermediate imports: Firm-product-level evidence 环境监管与中间产品进口:企业产品层面的证据
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103043
Chao Han , Chongyu Li , Jiansuo Pei , Chunhua Wang

This study examines the effects of domestic environmental regulations on import activity. Using a panel of firm-product-level data and variations in regulatory stringency across products established by China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan for Environmental Protection (covering 2006–2010), it reveals that tougher regulations on emission-intensive industries at home led to increases in downstream manufacturers’ imports of emission-intensive intermediate inputs. Specifically, a 1% increase in sulfur dioxide emission intensity resulted in a 0.026% increase in intermediate imports after the implementation of the regulation. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that, although the regulation increased emissions in source countries, it reduced global emissions of sulfur oxides and carbon dioxide. This is because the increases in imports caused by the regulation mainly came from countries with lower emission intensity than China. The regulation did not disproportionately increase imports from or emissions in developing countries.

本研究探讨了国内环境法规对进口活动的影响。通过使用企业-产品层面的面板数据以及《中国环境保护 "十一五 "规划》(2006-2010 年)中规定的各产品监管严格程度的变化,研究发现,国内对排放密集型产业更严格的监管导致下游制造商对排放密集型中间投入品的进口增加。具体来说,二氧化硫排放强度每增加 1%,法规实施后的中间品进口量就会增加 0.026%。回溯计算表明,虽然该法规增加了来源国的排放量,但却减少了全球的氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量。这是因为法规导致的进口增加主要来自排放强度低于中国的国家。该条例并没有不成比例地增加发展中国家的进口或排放。
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引用次数: 0
Is the clean energy transition making fixed-rate electricity tariffs regressive? 清洁能源转型是否使固定费率电价出现倒退?
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103040
Gordon W. Leslie , Armin Pourkhanali , Guillaume Roger

Wholesale electricity prices can rapidly change in real-time, yet households usually face fixed-price electricity tariffs. In markets with large amounts of solar electricity generation, households that predominantly import energy in the daytime when wholesale prices are low implicitly cross-subsidize households with energy use that is more weighted to the higher-priced evening. We map substation data on electricity use to demographic data, to identify the household characteristics associated with this cross-subsidization in a high-solar setting. We find that households in areas with low house prices and high levels of renters are the net funders of this implicit subsidy. These households currently have the lowest average energy cost for retailers to service, and could be the greatest immediate beneficiaries if real-time retail tariffs are made available, before accounting for price-responsiveness. Finally, we present evidence that cross-subsidy magnitudes have grown significantly in recent years, coincident with rapid solar generator penetration.

电力批发价格可能实时快速变化,但家庭通常面临固定价格的电费。在有大量太阳能发电的市场中,主要在批发价格较低的白天进口能源的家庭,会隐性地交叉补贴那些更偏重于在价格较高的晚上使用能源的家庭。我们将变电站的用电数据与人口数据进行映射,以确定在高太阳能环境下与这种交叉补贴相关的家庭特征。我们发现,房价低、租房者多的地区的家庭是这种隐性补贴的净资助者。目前,零售商为这些家庭提供服务的平均能源成本最低,如果提供实时零售电价,在考虑价格反应性之前,这些家庭可能是最大的直接受益者。最后,我们提出的证据表明,近年来随着太阳能发电机的快速普及,交叉补贴的幅度也在显著增加。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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