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The path to net zero emissions 净零排放之路
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103177
Michael Olaf Hoel
To reach the goals of the Paris agreement, net carbon emissions must be reduced to zero by the second half of this century. To achieve this, some kind of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is needed. The paper gives an analysis of the interaction between extraction of fossil energy resources and CDR. If there is sufficient capacity for storing captured carbon, it will be optimal to have a period of negative net emissions. In this case cumulative extraction will not depend on climate costs, but will be higher the lower is the cost of CDR at low levels of CDR.
为了实现《巴黎协定》的目标,到本世纪下半叶,净碳排放量必须减少到零。为了实现这一目标,需要某种二氧化碳去除(CDR)。本文分析了化石能源开采与CDR之间的相互作用。如果有足够的能力来储存捕获的碳,那么最好有一段时间的净排放量为负。在这种情况下,累积提取量将不取决于气候成本,但在低碳排放水平下,碳排放成本越低,累积提取量就越高。
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引用次数: 0
From Low Emission Zone to academic track: Environmental policy effects on educational achievement in elementary school
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103165
Johannes Brehm , Nico Pestel , Sandra Schaffner , Laura Schmitz
Do long-term improvements in air quality influence children’s educational outcomes? This paper investigates the impact of Low Emission Zones (LEZs), which restrict access to designated areas for emission-intensive vehicles, on the educational achievement of elementary school students in Germany. Using school-level data from North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, we exploit the staggered introduction of LEZs since 2008 with a difference-in-differences approach. LEZ implementations increase transition rates to the academic track in secondary education by approximately one percentage point, or 2.4 percent. We validate this finding using more aggregated district-level data across all of Germany. Our findings imply sizable educational co-benefits of reductions in air pollution.
空气质量的长期改善会影响儿童的教育成果吗?本文调查了低排放区(LEZs)对德国小学生教育成就的影响,该区域限制排放密集型车辆进入指定区域。利用德国人口最多的北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州的学校层面数据,我们采用差异中的差异方法,利用了自2008年以来错开引入的lez。LEZ的实施将中等教育向学术轨道的转换率提高了大约一个百分点,即2.4%。我们在整个德国使用更多的汇总区级数据来验证这一发现。我们的研究结果表明,减少空气污染对教育有相当大的协同效益。
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引用次数: 0
Congestion pricing with electric vehicle exemptions: Car-ownership effects and other behavioral adjustments 免除电动汽车的拥堵收费:汽车拥有量影响和其他行为调整
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103154
Elisabeth T. Isaksen , Bjørn G. Johansen
Decarbonizing transportation requires a shift from conventional to zero-emission vehicles. We examine whether congestion pricing with electric vehicle (EV) exemptions accelerates this transition by encouraging a shift toward cleaner cars. To identify causal effects, we combine administrative data on car ownership with a triple-differences design that exploits household-level variation in policy exposure across metropolitan areas and work commutes. We find that higher rush hour charges for conventional vehicles significantly increase EV adoption, primarily through replacement rather than fleet expansion. However, responses vary by socioeconomic characteristics, with higher-income and well-educated households more likely to adopt EVs. Beyond car ownership, we document behavioral adjustments, including relocation to avoid tolls, re-routing around the cordon, and shifting travel timing. Overall, congestion pricing reduced traffic volumes and improved air quality. Our findings offer insights for designing equitable and effective transportation policies.
交通脱碳需要从传统车辆向零排放车辆转变。我们研究了带有电动汽车(EV)豁免的拥堵定价是否通过鼓励向更清洁的汽车转变而加速了这一转变。为了确定因果效应,我们将汽车拥有量的行政数据与三重差分设计相结合,利用家庭层面在大都市地区和上下班途中的政策风险差异。我们发现,对传统车辆在高峰时段收取更高的费用会显著提高电动汽车的采用率,这主要是通过更换而不是扩大车队来实现的。然而,不同的社会经济特征会产生不同的反应,高收入和受过良好教育的家庭更有可能采用电动汽车。除汽车所有权外,我们还记录了行为调整,包括为避免收费而搬迁、绕过警戒线改变路线以及改变出行时间。总体而言,拥堵费降低了交通流量,改善了空气质量。我们的研究结果为设计公平有效的交通政策提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
What drives the long-term relationship between economic development and environmental quality? The role of spatial dispersion vs. agglomeration 是什么推动了经济发展与环境质量之间的长期关系?空间分散与集聚的作用
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103126
JunJie Wu , Kathleen Segerson , Christian Langpap
The dramatic improvement in air quality in major Chinese cities in recent years has led to renewed interest in the question of whether economic development allows a country to “grow” out of its environmental problems. We shed new light on this question by identifying a new factor that can drive the long-term relationship between economic development and environmental quality, namely, a spatial effect that arises from a tradeoff between environmental quality and agglomeration economies. We show theoretically that this spatial effect can lead to an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and pollution, i.e., an environmental Kuznets curve. In addition, we decompose changes in US air pollution concentrations from 1990 to 2017 to allow for a possible spatial effect. Results point to the potential importance of a spatial effect in explaining the reductions in carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations. However, little of the change in sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations in the US can be attributed to a potential spatial effect.
近年来,中国主要城市空气质量的显著改善,重新引发了人们对经济发展能否让一个国家“成长”出环境问题的兴趣。我们发现了一个能够推动经济发展与环境质量之间长期关系的新因素,即环境质量与集聚经济之间的权衡所产生的空间效应,从而为这个问题提供了新的视角。我们从理论上证明,这种空间效应可以导致收入与污染之间的倒u型关系,即环境库兹涅茨曲线。此外,我们分解了1990年至2017年美国空气污染浓度的变化,以考虑可能的空间效应。结果指出了空间效应在解释一氧化碳(CO)浓度降低方面的潜在重要性。然而,美国二氧化硫(SO2)浓度的变化很少可以归因于潜在的空间效应。
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引用次数: 0
Air pollution and children’s health inequalities 空气污染与儿童健康不平等
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103149
Milena Suarez Castillo , David Benatia , Christine Le Thi
This paper examines the differential impacts of early childhood exposure to air pollution on children’s health care use across parental income groups and vulnerability factors using French administrative data. Our quasi-experimental study reveals significant impacts on emergency admissions and respiratory medication in young children, attributed to air pollution shocks. Using causal machine learning, we identify these health impacts as predominantly affecting 10% of infants, characterized by poor health indicators at birth and lower parental income. Our results indicate that targeted policies based on vulnerability metrics may be more effective than those based solely on exposure levels.
本文利用法国的行政数据,研究了儿童早期暴露于空气污染对不同父母收入群体和脆弱性因素的儿童医疗保健使用的不同影响。我们的准实验研究揭示了空气污染冲击对幼儿急诊入院和呼吸系统药物治疗的显著影响。使用因果机器学习,我们确定这些健康影响主要影响10%的婴儿,其特征是出生时健康指标不佳和父母收入较低。我们的研究结果表明,基于漏洞度量的有针对性的策略可能比仅基于暴露水平的策略更有效。
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引用次数: 0
Order! the border: Multitasking, air pollution regulation and local government responses 订单!边界:多任务、空气污染管制和地方政府的反应
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103135
Hai Hong , Yongbin Huang
This paper presents new evidence on how multitasking local governments' strategic responses to top-down environmental regulations can induce pollution in border areas. Using the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in China as a quasi-experiment, we exploit a difference-in-differences model and find that this policy induces the border effect of air pollution. We further reveal a salient window dressing behavior of local governments, which air pollution in border counties reduces significantly as the high-stakes inspection time neared, followed by a dramatic increase soon after the inspection. These results are driven by local government responses to incomprehensive air quality monitor stations installed in non-border counties, and local officials with strong promotion incentives, who exert strict regulations in non-border counties while varied regulations in border counties over time to cater for the multitasking of economic growth and air quality targets.
本文提出了新的证据,说明多任务地方政府对自上而下的环境法规的战略反应如何导致边境地区的污染。以《大气污染防治行动计划》在中国的实施为准实验,利用差分中的差分模型,发现该政策诱导了大气污染的边界效应。我们进一步揭示了地方政府明显的粉饰行为,边境县的空气污染随着高风险检查时间的临近而显著减少,随后在检查后不久急剧增加。这些结果是由地方政府对在非边境县安装的不全面的空气质量监测站的反应,以及具有强烈晋升激励的地方官员推动的,他们在非边境县实行严格的规定,而在边境县随着时间的推移实行不同的规定,以满足经济增长和空气质量目标的多重任务。
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引用次数: 0
Voting with their (left and right) feet: Are homebuyers’ values of neighborhood environmental amenities consistent with their politics? 用(左脚和右脚)投票:购房者对社区环境便利设施的价值观是否与其政治立场一致?
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103157
Corey Lang, Jarron VanCeylon
There exists a consistent partisan gap in preferences for public spending on the environment, with approval being 20 to 40 percentage points higher for Democrats than Republicans. In this paper, we investigate whether there is a similar partisan gap present in residential preferences for environmental amenities. We link housing data, land use, and household characteristics, including voter registration, for three distinct housing markets, and we develop a residential sorting model to estimate marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP) for residential proximity to conserved land, allowing for preference heterogeneity by partisanship as well as other household characteristics. For all households combined, we estimate average annual household MWTP for locations proximate to open space to range from $426 to $1061 across the three markets. In our model that allows for heterogeneous preferences across groups, we find no evidence that Republicans' MWTP is less than Democrats’ MWTP, and we statistically reject the magnitude of preference disparity found in voting studies. These findings establish a difference in relative preferences across venues that has implications for valuation research and political economy. To assess why relative preferences may differ across venues, we develop a simple theoretical model that applies to both housing and voting decisions and incorporates parameters for parochial altruism and tax aversion. Using prior estimates on partisan differences in key parameters, we find both intuitive and, to some extent, numerical support for the observed difference in relative preferences.
在对公共环境支出的偏好上,两党之间一直存在分歧,民主党人的支持率比共和党人高出20到40个百分点。在本文中,我们调查是否有类似的党派差距存在于居住偏好的环境设施。我们将三个不同的住房市场的住房数据、土地使用和家庭特征(包括选民登记)联系起来,并开发了一个住宅分类模型来估计住宅靠近保护土地的边际支付意愿(MWTP),考虑到党派关系和其他家庭特征的偏好异质性。就所有家庭而言,我们估计在三个市场中,靠近开放空间位置的家庭平均年MWTP在426美元至1061美元之间。在我们的模型中,允许跨群体的异质性偏好,我们没有发现共和党人的MWTP低于民主党人的MWTP的证据,我们在统计上拒绝了投票研究中发现的偏好差异的程度。这些发现确定了不同地点之间相对偏好的差异,这对估值研究和政治经济学具有启示意义。为了评估为什么不同地点的相对偏好可能不同,我们开发了一个简单的理论模型,该模型适用于住房和投票决策,并纳入了教区利他主义和税收厌恶的参数。使用对关键参数的党派差异的先前估计,我们发现直观的和在某种程度上对观察到的相对偏好差异的数值支持。
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引用次数: 0
The geography of pollution regulation and productivity 污染管制和生产力的地理
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103134
Ying Chen , Wenjie Wu , Yanwen Yun
This paper examines the impact of China's 1998 “Two Control Zones” (TCZ) policy on firm productivity and local economies using geolocated micro data. The analysis relies on an instrumental variable based on engineering considerations related to pollution emissions. We find that the TCZ policy led to the exit of low-productivity firms and reduced ten-year productivity growth among surviving firms. These surviving firms adjusted by reducing coal consumption, altering their product mix, and increasing innovation activities, resulting in significant transitional costs. The negative effects are disproportionately larger for initially high-productivity firms that engage more actively in abatement efforts. The adverse impact is amplified in counties with closely related industries and strong vertical linkages. These findings highlight the uneven distributional costs of place-based environmental regulations.
本文利用地理定位的微观数据,考察了1998年中国“两个控制区”政策对企业生产率和地方经济的影响。该分析依赖于基于与污染排放相关的工程考虑的工具变量。研究发现,技术创新区政策导致了低生产率企业的退出,降低了幸存企业的十年生产率增长。这些幸存下来的公司通过减少煤炭消耗、改变产品结构和增加创新活动来进行调整,从而产生了巨大的过渡成本。对于最初生产率高、更积极参与减排努力的企业来说,负面影响不成比例地更大。在产业密切相关、垂直联系强的县,不利影响更大。这些发现突出了基于地方的环境法规的不均衡分配成本。
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引用次数: 0
A market mechanism for sustainable and efficient resource use under uncertainty 不确定条件下可持续和有效利用资源的市场机制
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103151
Martin F. Quaas , Ralph Winkler
Sustainability and efficiency are potentially conflicting social objectives in natural resource management. We propose a market mechanism to allocate use rights over a stochastic resource to private managers, which is particularly parsimonious with respect to governing and monitoring institutions on which many traditional rights-based management practices rest. The mechanism endogenously determines the maximal tenure length guaranteeing sustainability over the entire period. In addition, the mechanism achieves efficiency, i.e., it maximizes the expected present value of resource rents that accrue to society. Potential applications include improved fishing agreements between developing countries and distant-water fishing fleets.
在自然资源管理方面,可持续性和效率是潜在的相互冲突的社会目标。我们建议建立一种市场机制,将随机资源的使用权分配给私人管理者,这对于许多传统的基于权利的管理实践所依赖的治理和监督机构来说尤其吝啬。该机制内源性地决定了保证整个周期可持续性的最大使用权长度。此外,该机制还实现了效率,即使社会获得的资源租金的预期现值最大化。潜在的应用包括改进发展中国家和远洋捕鱼船队之间的捕鱼协定。
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引用次数: 0
The value of a value: The benefits of improved decision making informed by non-market valuation 价值的价值:通过非市场估值改善决策的好处
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103148
David J. Pannell , Robert J. Johnston , Michael P. Burton , Md Sayed Iftekhar , Abbie A. Rogers , Cheryl Day
Information on non-market values has the potential to improve decision making but approaches to measure these values are costly and may be inaccurate. This study develops a Bayesian value of information (VOI) model to evaluate when and if the benefit of conducting a non-market valuation (NMV) study exceeds the cost, and which method of those considered delivers the highest expected net benefit. The approach is illustrated using a water quality improvement decision, with VOI estimated for stated preference, revealed preference and benefit transfer methods, the first two implemented at varying degrees of best practice. Information on the anticipated accuracy of each valuation method is derived via structured expert-elicitation. Results show that the net VOI from NMV studies varies widely and depends on multiple factors, including project scale, the quality of existing knowledge, the accuracy of NMV methods, the type of values measured (e.g., use versus nonuse values) and the costs of applying each method. Findings suggest that familiar narratives regarding the value of NMV estimates may be too simplistic, suggesting that a more nuanced approach to study application is warranted. Although demonstrated for one case study, the approach can be adapted to many decision settings.
关于非市场价值的信息有可能改善决策,但衡量这些价值的方法代价高昂,而且可能不准确。本研究开发了一个贝叶斯信息价值(VOI)模型来评估进行非市场估值(NMV)研究的收益何时以及是否超过成本,以及哪种方法被认为提供了最高的预期净收益。该方法使用水质改善决策来说明,VOI估计了声明偏好,显示偏好和利益转移方法,前两种方法在不同程度上实现了最佳实践。每种估价方法的预期准确性的信息是通过结构化的专家启发得出的。结果表明,NMV研究的净VOI差异很大,并取决于多种因素,包括项目规模、现有知识的质量、NMV方法的准确性、测量价值的类型(例如,使用价值与不使用价值)以及应用每种方法的成本。研究结果表明,关于NMV估计值的熟悉叙述可能过于简单,这表明有必要采用更细致入微的方法来研究应用。虽然只演示了一个案例研究,但该方法可以适用于许多决策设置。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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