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Can social protection reduce damages from higher temperatures? 社会保护能减少高温造成的损害吗?
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103152
Teevrat Garg , Gordon C. McCord , Aleister Montfort
Can higher incomes reduce economic and social damages from higher temperatures? Causal investigation of this question has been challenging because income differences correlate with cumulative exposure and either may drive observed differences in the deleterious effects of heat. We revisit the same-day temperature–violence relationship in Mexico and show that a conditional cash transfer program attenuated the effects of higher temperatures on violent behavior, but only temporarily. Within five years of receiving ongoing monthly transfers, the heat-violence relationship returns to pre-program levels even as transfers continue. Our results highlight potential limitations of higher incomes in adaptation to rising temperatures.
高收入能减少高温带来的经济和社会损失吗?这个问题的因果调查一直具有挑战性,因为收入差异与累积暴露有关,两者都可能导致观察到的热量有害影响的差异。我们重新审视了墨西哥当天气温与暴力的关系,并表明有条件的现金转移计划减弱了高温对暴力行为的影响,但只是暂时的。在接受每月持续转移的五年内,即使转移继续,热暴力关系也会恢复到计划前的水平。我们的研究结果强调了高收入在适应气温上升方面的潜在局限性。
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引用次数: 0
The political economy of ratchet effect: Evidence from China’s environmental regulation 棘轮效应的政治经济学:来自中国环境监管的证据
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103150
Guangyu Cao , Xi Weng , Mingwei Xu , Li-An Zhou
The ratchet effect is a critical component in dynamic incentive designs. This paper exploits China’s recent adoption of minimum performance standards in air pollution controls and variations in the frequency of target assignment, and utilizes Regression Discontinuity Design to estimate the impact of target ratcheting on Chinese local officials’ incentives to reduce air pollution. We find strong evidence that (i) when local officials fail the minimum targets and try to make up for the failure to avoid severe punishment, the prospect of being ratcheted would weaken the make-up efforts, and (ii) air quality will significantly deteriorate after local officials fulfill the minimum targets ahead of schedule, regardless of whether local officials face the prospect of target ratcheting. We further discover that job rotation and the existence of comparable peers could effectively mitigate the ratchet effect.
棘轮效应是动态激励设计中的一个重要组成部分。本文利用中国最近在空气污染控制中采用的最低绩效标准和目标分配频率的变化,并利用回归不连续设计来估计目标棘齿对中国地方官员减少空气污染激励的影响。我们发现强有力的证据表明:(i)当地方官员未能达到最低目标并试图弥补失败以避免严厉惩罚时,被棘轮化的前景会削弱弥补努力;(ii)无论地方官员是否面临目标棘轮化的前景,地方官员提前完成最低目标后,空气质量都会显著恶化。我们进一步发现,工作轮换和具有可比性的同伴的存在可以有效地缓解棘轮效应。
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引用次数: 0
Air pollution and children’s health inequalities 空气污染与儿童健康不平等
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103149
Milena Suarez Castillo , David Benatia , Christine Le Thi
This paper examines the differential impacts of early childhood exposure to air pollution on children’s health care use across parental income groups and vulnerability factors using French administrative data. Our quasi-experimental study reveals significant impacts on emergency admissions and respiratory medication in young children, attributed to air pollution shocks. Using causal machine learning, we identify these health impacts as predominantly affecting 10% of infants, characterized by poor health indicators at birth and lower parental income. Our results indicate that targeted policies based on vulnerability metrics may be more effective than those based solely on exposure levels.
本文利用法国的行政数据,研究了儿童早期暴露于空气污染对不同父母收入群体和脆弱性因素的儿童医疗保健使用的不同影响。我们的准实验研究揭示了空气污染冲击对幼儿急诊入院和呼吸系统药物治疗的显著影响。使用因果机器学习,我们确定这些健康影响主要影响10%的婴儿,其特征是出生时健康指标不佳和父母收入较低。我们的研究结果表明,基于漏洞度量的有针对性的策略可能比仅基于暴露水平的策略更有效。
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引用次数: 0
Land tenure security and deforestation: Evidence from a framed field experiment in Uganda 土地保有权安全和森林砍伐:来自乌干达一个有框架的实地试验的证据
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103137
Sarah Walker , Jennifer Alix-García , Anne Bartlett , Alice Calder
We conduct a framed field experiment with Ugandan forest users to elucidate the impact of land tenure security on deforestation. One-third of participants faced a threat of eviction, one-third had the option to secure tenure through costly certification, and one-third had secure tenure. The results show that insecure tenure increases tree extraction by 23%, while certification reduces that effect by half. The conservation effects of certification are intensified for participants with a lived experience of land tenure insecurity generated by overlapping land rights. Our findings demonstrate that land certification can improve environmental outcomes and that these effects may be amplified by historical legacies of insecurity.
我们对乌干达森林使用者进行了一项有框架的实地试验,以阐明土地保有权安全对森林砍伐的影响。三分之一的参与者面临被驱逐的威胁,三分之一的人可以选择通过昂贵的认证来获得使用权,三分之一的人拥有安全的使用权。结果表明,不安全的权位使采伐率增加了23%,而认证使这种影响减少了一半。对于亲身经历过重叠土地权利所造成的土地使用权不安全的参与者来说,核证的保护作用更加突出。我们的研究结果表明,土地认证可以改善环境结果,这些影响可能会被不安全的历史遗产放大。
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引用次数: 0
The value of a value: The benefits of improved decision making informed by non-market valuation 价值的价值:通过非市场估值改善决策的好处
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103148
David J. Pannell , Robert J. Johnston , Michael P. Burton , Md Sayed Iftekhar , Abbie A. Rogers , Cheryl Day
Information on non-market values has the potential to improve decision making but approaches to measure these values are costly and may be inaccurate. This study develops a Bayesian value of information (VOI) model to evaluate when and if the benefit of conducting a non-market valuation (NMV) study exceeds the cost, and which method of those considered delivers the highest expected net benefit. The approach is illustrated using a water quality improvement decision, with VOI estimated for stated preference, revealed preference and benefit transfer methods, the first two implemented at varying degrees of best practice. Information on the anticipated accuracy of each valuation method is derived via structured expert-elicitation. Results show that the net VOI from NMV studies varies widely and depends on multiple factors, including project scale, the quality of existing knowledge, the accuracy of NMV methods, the type of values measured (e.g., use versus nonuse values) and the costs of applying each method. Findings suggest that familiar narratives regarding the value of NMV estimates may be too simplistic, suggesting that a more nuanced approach to study application is warranted. Although demonstrated for one case study, the approach can be adapted to many decision settings.
关于非市场价值的信息有可能改善决策,但衡量这些价值的方法代价高昂,而且可能不准确。本研究开发了一个贝叶斯信息价值(VOI)模型来评估进行非市场估值(NMV)研究的收益何时以及是否超过成本,以及哪种方法被认为提供了最高的预期净收益。该方法使用水质改善决策来说明,VOI估计了声明偏好,显示偏好和利益转移方法,前两种方法在不同程度上实现了最佳实践。每种估价方法的预期准确性的信息是通过结构化的专家启发得出的。结果表明,NMV研究的净VOI差异很大,并取决于多种因素,包括项目规模、现有知识的质量、NMV方法的准确性、测量价值的类型(例如,使用价值与不使用价值)以及应用每种方法的成本。研究结果表明,关于NMV估计值的熟悉叙述可能过于简单,这表明有必要采用更细致入微的方法来研究应用。虽然只演示了一个案例研究,但该方法可以适用于许多决策设置。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of environmental exposures on weight-related health behaviors and outcomes 环境暴露对体重相关健康行为和结果的影响
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103138
Brandyn F. Churchill , Sparshi Srivastava
The US obesity rate has increased alongside an increase in extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, which may influence an individual's desired bodyweight, dietary habits, and level of physical activity. In this paper, we provide evidence on the role of environmental exposures in shaping weight-related health behaviors and outcomes. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and an identification strategy leveraging temperature deviations from local seasonal norms, we show that adults were less likely to report trying to lose weight, dieting to lose weight, and exercising to lose weight when temperatures fell below 20–25 °C (68–77 °F). We then show that temperature increases were associated with increases in respondents' weekly servings of fruits and vegetables and the number of minutes they spent engaged in moderate or vigorous physical activity. Despite these behavioral changes, we find no evidence of a relationship between temperature and BMI. Therefore, despite concerns that rising global temperatures may increase the prevalence of overweight and obesity, our findings suggest that it is in fact cooler days that reduce the likelihood individuals engage in weight management behaviors.
随着热浪等极端天气事件的增加,美国的肥胖率也在上升,这些极端天气事件可能会影响个人的理想体重、饮食习惯和体育活动水平。在本文中,我们提供了环境暴露在塑造体重相关健康行为和结果中的作用的证据。利用行为风险因素监测系统的数据和利用当地季节标准温度偏差的识别策略,我们发现,当温度低于20-25°C(68-77°F)时,成年人不太可能报告试图减肥、节食减肥和锻炼减肥。然后我们表明,温度升高与受访者每周水果和蔬菜摄入量的增加以及他们从事中等或剧烈体育活动的时间有关。尽管有这些行为变化,但我们没有发现温度和体重指数之间存在关系的证据。因此,尽管人们担心全球气温上升可能会增加超重和肥胖的患病率,但我们的研究结果表明,事实上,凉爽的天气降低了人们从事体重管理行为的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
The social welfare implications of electrification in the U.S. residential energy market 电气化对美国住宅能源市场的社会福利影响
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103136
Alexander Hill
Concerns over global climate change have led to support for household electrification to reduce CO2 emissions. However, due to the cost of mandating household electrification and the lack of an emissions-free grid, the social net benefit of this policy is unknown. Using a discrete choice empirical strategy, this paper estimates the tradeoff between household willingness to pay to avoid an electrification mandate and its environmental benefits in residential space and water heating markets. Compared with the counterfactual, the mandate has a net social cost of $47 billion annually from 2025 to 2050, largely from households in the Northeast and North Midwest.
对全球气候变化的担忧促使人们支持家用电气化以减少二氧化碳排放。然而,由于强制家庭电气化的成本和缺乏无排放电网,这项政策的社会净效益尚不清楚。使用离散选择经验策略,本文估计了家庭为避免电气化授权而支付的意愿与其在住宅空间和热水市场中的环境效益之间的权衡。与反事实相比,从2025年到2050年,该法令每年的净社会成本为470亿美元,主要来自东北部和中西部北部的家庭。
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引用次数: 0
Order! the border: Multitasking, air pollution regulation and local government responses 订单!边界:多任务、空气污染管制和地方政府的反应
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103135
Hai Hong , Yongbin Huang
This paper presents new evidence on how multitasking local governments' strategic responses to top-down environmental regulations can induce pollution in border areas. Using the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in China as a quasi-experiment, we exploit a difference-in-differences model and find that this policy induces the border effect of air pollution. We further reveal a salient window dressing behavior of local governments, which air pollution in border counties reduces significantly as the high-stakes inspection time neared, followed by a dramatic increase soon after the inspection. These results are driven by local government responses to incomprehensive air quality monitor stations installed in non-border counties, and local officials with strong promotion incentives, who exert strict regulations in non-border counties while varied regulations in border counties over time to cater for the multitasking of economic growth and air quality targets.
本文提出了新的证据,说明多任务地方政府对自上而下的环境法规的战略反应如何导致边境地区的污染。以《大气污染防治行动计划》在中国的实施为准实验,利用差分中的差分模型,发现该政策诱导了大气污染的边界效应。我们进一步揭示了地方政府明显的粉饰行为,边境县的空气污染随着高风险检查时间的临近而显著减少,随后在检查后不久急剧增加。这些结果是由地方政府对在非边境县安装的不全面的空气质量监测站的反应,以及具有强烈晋升激励的地方官员推动的,他们在非边境县实行严格的规定,而在边境县随着时间的推移实行不同的规定,以满足经济增长和空气质量目标的多重任务。
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引用次数: 0
Agriculture’s nitrogen legacy 农业的氮遗产
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103132
Konstantinos Metaxoglou , Aaron Smith
Nitrogen pollution of waterways is a large global problem, particularly in regions with intensive cropland agriculture, such as the Mississippi River Basin. Unlike prior studies based on agronomic and hydrologic (ag-hydro) models, we collect detailed data from water quality monitors and employ panel data econometric methods to estimate the relationship between cropland and nitrogen pollution. We find an increase in nitrogen load in nearby downstream waterways associated with an additional corn acre upstream that is substantially smaller than the field-to-river adjusted loss per cropland acre based on ag-hydro models. Our findings are consistent with those of recent research documenting the accumulation of large amounts of nitrogen in subsurface soil and groundwater over several decades; this is surplus nitrogen that was applied to fields but has yet to appear in waterways. This legacy nitrogen eventually reaches streams and rivers exacerbating further nitrogen pollution leading to time lags in measurable water quality improvements following the implementation of mitigation practices and policies. In the presence of large amounts of legacy nitrogen, land retirement, and other on-farm mitigation practices, may not be cost effective. Downstream off-farm practices, such as the development of fluvial wetlands, which remove both legacy and new nitrogen, can be cost-effective.
水道的氮污染是一个全球性的大问题,特别是在密集的农田农业地区,如密西西比河流域。与以往基于农艺和水文(ag-hydro)模型的研究不同,我们收集了水质监测仪的详细数据,并采用面板数据计量经济学方法来估计农田与氮污染之间的关系。我们发现附近下游水道中氮负荷的增加与上游额外的玉米英亩有关,这大大小于基于农业水力模型的每农田英亩农田到河流的调整损失。我们的发现与最近的研究一致,这些研究记录了几十年来地下土壤和地下水中大量氮的积累;这是施用于农田的多余氮,但尚未出现在水道中。这些遗留的氮最终到达溪流和河流,进一步加剧了氮污染,导致在实施缓解措施和政策后,可衡量的水质改善存在时间滞后。在存在大量遗留氮、土地退役和其他农场缓解措施的情况下,可能不具有成本效益。下游的非农业实践,如河流湿地的开发,既可以去除遗留的氮,也可以去除新的氮,是具有成本效益的。
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引用次数: 0
The Political Economy of (Lacking) Commitment to Green Policies (缺乏)绿色政策承诺的政治经济学
IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103133
Josse Delfgaauw, Otto Swank
The IPCC (2022) views political commitment to policies as a prerequisite for mitigating climate change. We study an environment where citizens’ incentives to invest depend on future policy decisions. In turn, political support for future policies depends on citizens’ investment decisions, as these policies redistribute towards citizens who invest. We show that such redistributive concerns distort politicians’ incentives to commit. Our model explains why redistributive concerns induced some governments to choose extensive commitment by providing price certainty to investors in renewable energy for 20 years. Our model also explains why redistributive concerns can hinder commitment to green policies as suggested by the IPCC. Finally, we show that redistributive concerns can provide credibility to a policy, even if the policy is inefficient.
IPCC(2022)将对政策的政治承诺视为减缓气候变化的先决条件。我们研究的环境中,公民的投资动机取决于未来的政策决定。反过来,对未来政策的政治支持取决于公民的投资决策,因为这些政策会向投资的公民进行再分配。我们的研究表明,这种对再分配的担忧扭曲了政治家做出承诺的动机。我们的模型解释了为什么再分配问题促使一些政府通过向可再生能源投资者提供20年的价格确定性来选择广泛承诺。我们的模型还解释了为什么对再分配的担忧会阻碍IPCC所建议的绿色政策的承诺。最后,我们证明了再分配问题可以为一项政策提供可信度,即使该政策效率低下。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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