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Asymmetric environmental regulation, interfuel substitution and carbon leakage 不对称环境监管、燃料间替代和碳泄漏
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103263
Emmanuel Murray-Leclair
This paper examines how plants adjust their production in response to asymmetric carbon pricing. When plants compete across areas, asymmetric regulation can lead to carbon leakage, shifting emissions from regulated to unregulated areas. I build a production model with multiple fuel inputs, imperfect competition, and region-specific carbon taxes. Using publicly available Canadian plant-level data on a wide range of air pollutants, I invert the chemical reactions from combustion to back out plants’ fuel usage. I then estimate the model by exploiting variation in the British Columbia (B.C.) and Quebec carbon taxes, which were implemented in 2008 and 2007, respectively. Findings indicate substantial emissions reductions in British Columbia, with 95 % confidence intervals ranging from 7 % to 48 %, and no reduction in Quebec. Contrary to theoretical predictions of carbon leakage, the analysis reveals no statistically significant shift in production toward unregulated provinces. A detailed decomposition reveals that the absence of leakage was primarily due to the regulated plants’ ability to absorb the tax by switching from oil to natural gas and by reallocating output from dirtier to cleaner plants within British Columbia.
本文研究了植物如何调整其生产以应对不对称的碳定价。当工厂在不同地区竞争时,不对称的监管可能导致碳泄漏,将排放从受监管的地区转移到不受监管的地区。我建立了一个包含多种燃料输入、不完全竞争和特定地区碳税的生产模型。利用加拿大公开的各种空气污染物的工厂级数据,我将燃烧产生的化学反应反向推算出工厂的燃料使用情况。然后,我通过利用分别于2008年和2007年实施的不列颠哥伦比亚省和魁北克省碳税的变化来估计模型。研究结果表明,不列颠哥伦比亚省的排放量大幅减少,95%的置信区间从7%到48%不等,而魁北克省没有减少。与碳泄漏的理论预测相反,分析显示,在统计上,生产并未向不受监管的省份转移。一项详细的分析表明,没有泄漏主要是由于受监管的工厂有能力吸收税收,从石油转向天然气,并将产出从不列颠哥伦比亚省的污染工厂重新分配到清洁工厂。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous responses to carbon pricing: Firm-level evidence from Beijing emissions trading scheme 碳定价的异质性响应:来自北京排放交易机制的企业层面证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103266
Ruijie Tian , Huajin Wang , Da Zhang , Xiliang Zhang , Thomas Sterner
Beijing’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) is one of the earliest with sustained high permit prices among seven CO2 ETS pilots in China. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design with a unique emissions data set for firms participating in Beijing’s ETS, we study firms’ reactions to carbon pricing. We find that, on average, the ETS reduced firms’ carbon emissions by 39% 3 years after the policy was introduced, but responses varied: emissions were reduced by about 45% in the industrial sector, but there was hardly any change in the service sector. By looking into potential abatement mechanisms of industrial firms, we find that their emissions reduction was realized mainly through reducing coal consumption, without significantly reducing output and energy intensity. The effects on firms in the industrial sector are partly amplified by firms subject to overlapping regulations targeting heavily polluting and energy-intensive producers, highlighting heterogeneous responses for firms facing multiple regulatory pressures.
在中国7个碳排放交易体系试点中,北京的碳排放交易体系(ETS)是最早实行高许可价格的试点之一。本文采用模糊非连续性回归设计,对参与北京碳排放交易体系的企业采用了独特的排放数据集,研究了企业对碳定价的反应。我们发现,平均而言,碳排放交易体系在政策引入3年后将企业的碳排放量减少了39%,但反应各不相同:工业部门的排放量减少了约45%,但服务业几乎没有任何变化。通过分析工业企业的潜在减排机制,我们发现工业企业的减排主要是通过减少煤炭消耗来实现的,而没有显著降低产量和能源强度。对工业部门企业的影响部分被那些受到针对重污染和能源密集型生产商的重叠监管的企业放大,突出了面临多重监管压力的企业的不同反应。
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引用次数: 0
Firm ownership and pollution 企业所有权和污染
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103265
Tsz Chun Kwok , Daniel Spiro , Arthur A. van Benthem
We provide a theoretical micro foundation for how much pollution (negative externalities) a firm will internalize based on the ownership distribution of its shareholders. Small shareholders, compared to large ones, want the firm to spend more on avoiding pollution since they suffer less profit loss for the same environmental benefit. In particular, if a shareholder holds a share of 1/N, where N is the population in society, that shareholder’s preferences align with a social planner’s. Three theoretical predictions arise. First, small shareholders will systematically vote for a greener corporate profile. Second, firms with a smaller weighted-median shareholder will pollute less. Third, countries with concentrated corporate wealth holdings and/or more individualized firm ownership will pollute more. This implies that standard models of externalities in environmental economics and macroeconomics containing representative agents are either internally inconsistent or not fully specified.
我们为基于股东所有权分配的企业内部化多少污染(负外部性)提供了理论微观基础。与大股东相比,小股东希望公司花更多的钱来避免污染,因为他们在同样的环境效益下遭受更少的利润损失。特别是,如果股东持有1/N的股份,其中N是社会中的人口,那么股东的偏好与社会规划者的偏好一致。由此产生了三个理论上的预测。首先,小股东将系统性地投票支持更环保的公司形象。其次,股东权重中位数较小的公司污染会更少。第三,企业财富集中和/或企业所有权更个性化的国家将造成更多污染。这意味着,环境经济学和宏观经济学中包含代表性主体的外部性标准模型要么内部不一致,要么没有完全规定。
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引用次数: 0
Green regulation, trade friendliness, and local policy adaptation 绿色监管、贸易友好和地方政策适应
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103262
Xinming Du , Yu Qin , Yu Xie
This paper examines the impacts of national policies on local policy formulation by studying the interplay between a top-down environmental regulation and the local Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policies. We compiled a database of prefecture-level FDI policies in China spanning four decades and leveraged the Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy that designated some prefectures for pollution abatement. A difference-in-differences analysis shows that the TCZ designated cities formulated more friendly FDI policies after the TCZ policy. Mechanism analyses suggest that local governments loosen FDI regulations to offset economic costs of environmental regulation and attain political promotion.
本文通过研究自上而下的环境法规与地方外商直接投资(FDI)政策之间的相互作用,考察了国家政策对地方政策制定的影响。我们编制了一个中国四十年来地级市FDI政策数据库,并利用两个控制区(TCZ)政策,指定一些地级市进行污染减排。差异中差异分析表明,在自贸区政策出台后,自贸区指定城市制定的FDI政策更加友好。机制分析表明,地方政府放松FDI管制是为了抵消环境管制的经济成本,并获得政治促进。
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引用次数: 0
Does central supervision mitigate border pollution? Evidence from the national specially monitored firms program in China 中央监管能缓解边境污染吗?来自中国国家特别监督公司项目的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103261
Panbing Wan , Lin Chen , ZhongXiang Zhang
This paper examines how central supervision influences border pollution, using China's National Specially Monitored Firms (NSMF) program as a quasi-experiment. We show that the program significantly reduces SO2 emission intensity among polluting firms near provincial borders relative to those farther away. The effect is concentrated in firms located downwind of urban areas. The mechanism operates through strengthened local enforcement, as the NSMF program compels stricter monitoring of border-proximate firms. In response, these firms adopt greater end-of-pipe abatement measures to comply with heightened regulatory pressure.
本文以中国国家特别监测企业(NSMF)项目为准实验,考察了中央监管对边境污染的影响。我们表明,该计划显著降低了省际附近污染企业的二氧化硫排放强度。这种影响主要集中在位于市区下风的公司。该机制通过加强地方执法来运作,因为NSMF计划要求对临近边境的公司进行更严格的监控。作为回应,这些公司采取了更多的管道末端减排措施,以应对日益增加的监管压力。
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引用次数: 0
Do sufficiency consumption changes drive emissions down? A production network approach 充足消费的改变会推动排放下降吗?生产网络方法
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103258
Célia Escribe , Philippe Quirion
Energy efficiency and decarbonized energy sources are central to climate change mitigation, but additional strategies may be needed to meet ambitious targets. Sufficiency, which involves reducing consumption and shifting to less environmentally impactful lifestyles, is increasingly considered a potential lever for decarbonization. However, its broader economic implications remain underexplored. This paper develops a static macroeconomic model with a detailed microeconomic production framework to analyze these implications. We derive comparative statics to unravel three primary propagation channels for consumption changes: direct demand effects, price effects, and substitution effects, based on the production network structure and elasticities of substitution. Using multi-regional input–output data, we assess the impacts of two sufficiency-driven consumption changes: adopting a vegetarian diet and reducing energy use. Our findings reveal significant rebound effects, up to 38 % for domestic emissions and 60 % for global emissions (accounting for carbon leakage), compared to estimates excluding behavioral aspects. Rebound effects from sufficiency strategies are smaller than those from energy efficiency improvements.
能源效率和脱碳能源是减缓气候变化的核心,但可能需要额外的战略来实现雄心勃勃的目标。自给自足,即减少消费和转向对环境影响较小的生活方式,越来越被认为是脱碳的一个潜在杠杆。然而,其更广泛的经济影响仍未得到充分探讨。本文建立了一个静态宏观经济模型,其中包含详细的微观经济生产框架来分析这些影响。基于生产网络结构和替代弹性,我们推导了比较静态数据来揭示消费变化的三个主要传播渠道:直接需求效应、价格效应和替代效应。利用多区域投入产出数据,我们评估了两种充足驱动的消费变化的影响:采用素食和减少能源使用。我们的研究结果显示了显著的反弹效应,与排除行为因素的估计相比,国内排放量高达38%,全球排放量高达60%(考虑到碳泄漏)。充足策略的反弹效应小于能源效率改进的反弹效应。
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引用次数: 0
Adjusting to the energy transition: Training and transfers in coal country 适应能源转型:产煤国家的培训与转移
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103264
Eleanor Krause
Between 2011 and 2016, coal mining employment declined by over 50 percent in Appalachia, producing sharp earnings and employment losses in coal-dependent communities. Whether these disruptions reflect temporary adjustment costs or signal more persistent decline depends in part on the extent and nature of local investment responses. This paper leverages differential Commuting Zone (CZ) exposure to coal’s decline to estimate its impact on government transfers and postsecondary training investments in Appalachia. I find that exposed CZs experienced a sizable and sustained rise in per capita transfer receipts, but no statistically detectable change in postsecondary awards, enrollment, or institutional finances. The absence of a training response persists when restricting to shorter-term programs at locally serving institutions and contrasts with documented effects in other settings. Given the central role of human capital in regional adjustment, these findings indicate that distressed regions affected by the transition away from legacy energy sectors may face greater challenges in adapting to structural change absent expanded educational investments.
2011年至2016年期间,阿巴拉契亚地区的煤炭开采就业人数下降了50%以上,严重影响了依赖煤炭的社区的收入和就业。这些中断反映的是暂时的调整成本,还是预示着更持久的衰退,部分取决于当地投资反应的程度和性质。本文利用差异通勤区(CZ)对煤炭下降的敞口来估计其对阿巴拉契亚地区政府转移支付和高等教育投资的影响。我发现,暴露的cz在人均转移收入方面经历了可观且持续的增长,但在高等教育奖励、入学率或机构财务方面没有统计上可检测到的变化。当仅限于当地服务机构的短期项目时,培训响应的缺失仍然存在,这与其他环境中的记录效果形成了对比。鉴于人力资本在区域调整中的核心作用,这些研究结果表明,受传统能源部门转型影响的贫困地区在没有扩大教育投资的情况下,在适应结构变化方面可能面临更大的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The non-green effects of going green: Local environmental and economic consequences of lithium extraction in Chile 走向绿色的非绿色效应:智利锂开采对当地环境和经济的影响
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103257
Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco , Vaios Triantafyllou , Gonzalo Martínez
In this paper, we investigate the local environmental and economic effects of lithium extraction in the Atacama Salt Flat (ASF) in Chile as a result of the global push for the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Utilizing granular administrative and remote sensing datasets, we assess the impacts of the extraction operations on water availability, vegetation, economic activity, and population dynamics in the ASF. Our findings reveal significant declines in groundwater levels as well as notable reductions in vegetation, economic activity, and local populations due to exposure to the extraction of lithium. We present evidence that the negative effect on vegetation was concentrated in human settlements as opposed to natural reserves, suggesting a reduction in agricultural activity. The main mechanism is the reduction in endemic forestry species and agricultural crops. This likely led to a decline in economic opportunities, which may explain the population outflow from areas around the ASF.
在本文中,我们研究了智利阿塔卡马盐滩(ASF)锂开采对当地环境和经济的影响,这是全球推动采用电动汽车(ev)的结果。利用精细的管理和遥感数据集,我们评估了采掘作业对非洲沙漠地区水资源供应、植被、经济活动和人口动态的影响。我们的研究结果显示,由于锂的开采,地下水水位显著下降,植被、经济活动和当地人口也显著减少。我们提供的证据表明,对植被的负面影响主要集中在人类住区,而不是自然保护区,这表明农业活动减少。其主要机制是林业特有树种和农业作物的减少。这可能导致经济机会的减少,这可能解释了非洲猪瘟周边地区人口外流的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Rolling back the tides: Impact of droughts on crop diversification and cropland expansion 退潮:干旱对作物多样化和农田扩张的影响
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103260
Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong , Emmanuel Tolani , Ernest L. Molua
We examine the impact of droughts on crop yields and forward-looking adaptive responses to extreme temperatures such as crop diversification and the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties. We also investigate cropland adjustments in responding to past droughts. To do this, we combine panel data from 2012 to 2019 with satellite data on drought conditions. We also consider households' self-reported drought experiences. By estimating econometric models, we find that droughts lead to yield reductions with the most significant impact on beans (9.5 %), groundnuts (7.2 %), and maize (6.0 %). In response to past droughts, households cultivate more diverse crops with a lower tendency for crop concentration and specialization. Furthermore, households are increasingly turning to climate-resilient crop varieties with a 15 percentage point increase in adoption. These climate-resilient crop varieties are bred to withstand the threats posed by drought conditions as well as a range of climate change-induced pests and diseases. In response to droughts, households expand total cultivated land by about 11–18 %, thus balancing yield losses with increased land use. This is particularly the case for some crops like sorghum, cowpea and soybeans where we find an increase in acreage shares indicating relative dominance and competitiveness. Household perceptions of droughts correspond well with objective drought measures showing consistent implications on yields, diversification, adoption of resilient seeds and cropland expansion.
我们研究了干旱对作物产量的影响,以及对极端温度的前瞻性适应性反应,如作物多样化和采用气候适应型作物品种。我们还调查了耕地调整对过去干旱的响应。为了做到这一点,我们将2012年至2019年的面板数据与干旱条件的卫星数据结合起来。我们还考虑了家庭自我报告的干旱经历。通过估算计量经济模型,我们发现干旱导致产量下降,对豆类(9.5%)、花生(7.2%)和玉米(6.0%)的影响最大。为了应对过去的干旱,农户种植了更多样化的作物,作物集中和专业化的趋势较低。此外,越来越多的家庭转向适应气候变化的作物品种,采用率提高了15个百分点。培育这些适应气候变化的作物品种是为了抵御干旱条件以及一系列气候变化引起的病虫害所带来的威胁。为应对干旱,农户将耕地总面积扩大约11% - 18%,从而通过增加土地利用来平衡产量损失。高粱、豇豆和大豆等作物尤其如此,我们发现它们种植面积份额的增加表明了相对优势和竞争力。家庭对干旱的认知与客观的干旱测量相吻合,显示出对产量、多样化、采用抗旱种子和农田扩张的一致影响。
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引用次数: 0
Is a nudge enough? Evidence from environmental compliance in Chile's industrial wastewater regulation 轻轻一推就够了吗?智利工业废水法规环境合规的证据
IF 5.9 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103256
Pablo Aguirre-Hormann , Francisco Donoso , Patricio Domínguez , Cristóbal De la Maza , Enzo E. Sauma
This study evaluates whether automated, customized notifications can improve environmental adherence at scale. Using a census panel from Chile's environmental regulator (SMA) with monthly compliance statuses from facilities' monitoring reports, we analyze a national deployment of notifications to all industrial wastewater dischargers. A regression discontinuity design at the rollout demonstrates null effects on substantive environmental obligations but significant improvements in administrative compliance: reporting timeliness increased between 17 % and 24.5 % with respect to baseline levels while completeness jumped between 53.7 % and 66 %. Post-rollout dynamics show persistent gains in administrative compliance and a delayed, not causally identified, rise in compliance with flow-discharge limits. Transition-hazard estimates show higher monthly exit from and lower entry into non-compliance for administrative duties, with increased exits from non-compliance for flow-discharge limits. Subgroup analyses indicate that facilities starting from lower pre-intervention compliance improve more on that same obligation and we find attenuated effects where facilities had recent regulatory attention. Taken together, our results are more consistent with behavioral adjustment than with strategic reporting, though manipulation cannot be ruled out. The presented evidence highlights the promise of technology-driven nudges to address informational barriers and enhance regulatory responses in resource-constrained settings. Our contributions are threefold: (1) quasi-experimental evidence of immediate notification effectiveness; (2) integrated dynamics and transition analyses that shed light on mechanisms of response; and (3) analyses of distributional effects.
这项研究评估了自动化、定制的通知是否可以大规模地提高环境依从性。利用智利环境监管机构(SMA)的人口普查小组以及设施监测报告的月度合规状况,我们分析了向所有工业废水排放者发布通知的全国部署情况。在推出时的回归不连续性设计表明对实质性环境义务没有影响,但在行政遵从性方面有显著改善:报告及时性相对于基线水平增加了17%到24.5%,而完整性则在53.7%到66%之间跃升。推出后的动态显示,在行政合规方面取得了持续的进展,并且在遵守流量排放限制方面出现了延迟的、没有因果关系的上升。过渡危害估计显示,每月有更多的人退出,更少的人进入不遵守行政职责的情况,不遵守流量排放限制的情况有所增加。分组分析表明,从较低的干预前合规开始的设施在相同的义务上改善更多,我们发现最近受到监管关注的设施效果减弱。综上所述,我们的结果更符合行为调整而不是战略报告,尽管不能排除操纵的可能性。现有的证据强调了技术驱动的推动有望解决信息障碍,并加强资源受限环境下的监管反应。我们的贡献有三个方面:(1)即时通知有效性的准实验证据;(2)综合动力学和过渡分析,揭示响应机制;(3)分配效应分析。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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