Journal of Environmental Economics and Management最新文献

英文中文

The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle 碳定价的成本效益之谜

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103062

Christian Gollier

Any global temperature target must be translated into an intertemporal carbon budget and its associated cost-efficient carbon price schedule. Under the Hotelling’s rule without uncertainty, the growth rate of this price should be equal to the interest rate. It is therefore a puzzle that many cost-efficiency IAM models yield carbon prices that increase at an average real growth rate above 7% per year, a very large return for traders of carbon assets. I explore whether uncertainties surrounding the development of green technologies could solve this puzzle. I show that future marginal abatement costs and aggregate consumption are positively correlated. This justifies doing less for climate change than in the safe case, implying a smaller initial carbon price, and an expected growth rate of carbon price that is larger than the interest rate. In the benchmark calibration of my model, I obtain an equilibrium interest rate around 1% and an expected growth rate of carbon price around 3.5%, yielding an optimal carbon price above 200 USD/tCO

_{2}

within the next few years. I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to cost-efficiency carbon pricing implies a large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint. I show that green investors should be compensated for this risk by a large risk premium embedded in the growth rate of expected carbon prices, rather than by a collar on carbon prices as often recommended.

任何全球气温目标都必须转化为跨时碳预算及其相关的具有成本效益的碳价格表。在没有不确定性的霍特林法则下，该价格的增长率应等于利率。因此，令人费解的是，许多成本效益 IAM 模型得出的碳价格年平均实际增长率超过 7%，这对碳资产交易者来说是一个非常大的回报。我探讨了绿色技术发展的不确定性能否解决这一难题。我的研究表明，未来的边际减排成本与总消费呈正相关。这就证明，与安全情况相比，我们有理由减少对气候变化的投入，这意味着初始碳价格较小，碳价格的预期增长率大于利率。在我的模型的基准校准中，我得到的均衡利率约为 1%，碳价格的预期增长率约为 3.5%，从而在未来几年内得到一个高于 200 美元/吨二氧化碳的最优碳价格。我还表明，成本效益碳定价的刚性碳预算方法意味着支持这一约束的未来碳价格具有很大的不确定性。我的研究表明，绿色投资者应该通过预期碳价格增长率中包含的巨大风险溢价来补偿这种风险，而不是像通常建议的那样通过碳价格的领口来补偿。

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引用次数: 0

Resource dependence, recycling, and trade 资源依赖、循环利用和贸易

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103064

Peter H. Egger , Christian Keuschnigg

Recycling waste from used goods can substitute for scarce virgin materials and reduce resource dependence. We present a model of waste collection, recycling, and final goods production using virgin and recycled materials. Environmentally safe disposal of trash (non-recycled waste) requires costly processing by landfill and burning which creates externalities. Trade between resource poor and resource rich countries involves non-trivial interactions between terms of trade effects and distortions in recycling and resource extraction. We analyze welfare improving policy intervention with local trash disposal and with trade in trash.

从废旧商品中回收废物可以替代稀缺的原生材料，减少对资源的依赖。我们提出了一个利用原生材料和回收材料进行废物收集、回收和最终产品生产的模型。垃圾（非回收废物）的环境安全处理需要成本高昂的填埋和焚烧处理，这就产生了外部效应。资源贫乏国家和资源丰富国家之间的贸易涉及贸易条件效应与回收和资源开采扭曲之间的非三角互动。我们分析了对当地垃圾处理和垃圾贸易的福利改善政策干预。

引用次数: 0

Carbon market design and market sentiment 碳市场设计和市场情绪

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103057

Grischa Perino

Concerns about systematic price distortions in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) have risen in recent years. This paper shows how carbon-market design affects the impact of market sentiment, i.e. systematic deviations of price expectations from fundamentals by at least some market participants, on equilibrium prices. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) of the EU ETS that adjusts supply based on past allowance banking undermines self-stabilization of the carbon market by discouraging rational intertemporal arbitrage. The MSR increases vulnerability of the EU ETS to market sentiments. Initially, the allowance price responds more to distorted expectations while the MSR (partially) prevents the distortion to spread across periods. Making the MSR more responsive to banking decisions increases the likelihood that distorted expectations turn out to be correct ex post. In contrast, a mechanism that adjust the cap based on the current allowance price does not face a trade off between stabilizing prices in the present and the future.

近年来，人们对欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）中系统性价格扭曲的担忧与日俱增。本文展示了碳市场设计如何影响市场情绪（即至少部分市场参与者的价格预期系统性地偏离基本面）对均衡价格的影响。欧盟排放交易计划的市场稳定储备（MSR）根据过去的配额库调整供应量，阻碍了理性的跨期套利，从而破坏了碳市场的自我稳定。可变储备金增加了欧盟排放交易计划受市场情绪影响的脆弱性。最初，配额价格对扭曲的预期反应更大，而 MSR（部分）防止了扭曲在不同时期的蔓延。使 MSR 更好地响应银行决策，会增加扭曲的预期在事后被证明是正确的可能性。与此相反，根据当前津贴价格调整上限的机制不会在稳定当前和未来价格之间进行权衡。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of extreme temperatures on evictions 极端气温对驱逐的影响

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103055

Dylan Brewer, Sarah Goldgar

Using data on evictions in the United States, we estimate the relationship between temperature and eviction filings. We find that extreme heat days result in a statistically significant increase in filings, while extreme cold days do not have the same relationship. To explain these findings, we show that residential energy expenditures are more sensitive to extreme heat than extreme cold, and that energy assistance programs in the United States prioritize funding for heating rather than cooling. These findings suggest that relative to today, future climate change scenarios with more hot days and fewer cold days will increase eviction filings without other policy or private adaptation.

利用美国的驱逐数据，我们估算了气温与驱逐申请之间的关系。我们发现，极端高温天会导致申请驱逐的数量在统计上显著增加，而极端寒冷天则没有这种关系。为了解释这些发现，我们表明住宅能源支出对极端高温比极端寒冷更敏感，而且美国的能源援助计划优先资助供暖而不是制冷。这些研究结果表明，与现在相比，在未来气候变化的情况下，如果没有其他政策或私人适应措施，炎热天数增加而寒冷天数减少将增加驱逐申请。

引用次数: 0

The more the better? Synergies of prosocial interventions and effects on behavioural spillovers 越多越好？亲社会干预措施的协同作用和对行为溢出效应的影响

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103061

Marius Alt , Hendrik Bruns , Nives Della Valle

Incentivising prosocial and pro-environmental behaviours is a sensitive endeavour. While behavioural change is urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of climate change, monetary interventions often have negative side effects. Such interventions are prone to motivation crowding, which can impede lasting positive behavioural change and stimulate negative temporal spillovers to other prosocial behaviours. In this study, we investigate whether implementing monetary interventions as part of policy mixes can mitigate these negative side effects. In an online experiment involving 3782 participants, we test whether the use of nudges that make personal and social norms salient can counteract the motivation-crowding effect and explore the effects of such policy mixes on temporal spillovers. We find that policy mixes of norm-based nudges and monetary incentives are more effective at stimulating engagement in targeted prosocial behaviour than no intervention when controlling for sample characteristics. Analysing the temporal spillover effects of these interventions reveals that policy mixes can alleviate the tendency of monetary incentives to negatively affect subsequent prosocial behaviour. This indicates that norm-based nudges are suitable complements to monetary interventions, facilitating long-lasting positive effects.

激励亲社会和亲环境行为是一项敏感的工作。虽然迫切需要改变行为以减轻气候变化的后果，但货币干预往往会产生负面的副作用。此类干预措施容易产生动机挤出效应，从而阻碍持久的积极行为改变，并对其他亲社会行为产生负面的时间溢出效应。在本研究中，我们探讨了作为政策组合的一部分实施货币干预是否可以减轻这些负面影响。在一项有 3782 名参与者参与的在线实验中，我们测试了使用使个人和社会规范突出的激励措施是否能抵消动机-拥挤效应，并探讨了这种政策组合对时间溢出效应的影响。我们发现，在控制样本特征的情况下，基于规范的劝导和货币激励的政策组合在刺激参与目标亲社会行为方面比不采取干预措施更有效。对这些干预措施的时间溢出效应进行分析后发现，政策组合可以缓解货币激励对后续亲社会行为产生负面影响的趋势。这表明，以规范为基础的激励措施是货币干预措施的适当补充，有助于产生持久的积极效果。

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引用次数: 0

Do time-of-use prices deliver energy savings at the right time? 分时价格是否能在正确的时间节约能源？

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103054

Zheng Fu , Kevin Novan , Aaron Smith

Time-of-use (TOU) electricity prices are increasingly being adopted to reduce consumption during the higher marginal cost afternoon hours. There is ample evidence that TOU rates reduce average consumption during the peak price hours of the day, but it is unknown how these energy savings are distributed across days. Using a unique dataset from households with smart thermostats, we find that adopting TOU rates causes large decreases in peak period AC usage, resulting in energy savings that are concentrated on the hottest, highest demand days when the benefits of conservation are the greatest.

人们越来越多地采用分时电价（TOU）来减少下午边际成本较高时段的用电量。有大量证据表明，TOU 电价降低了一天中电价高峰时段的平均用电量，但这些节省下来的能源是如何在一天中分配的，我们还不得而知。通过使用智能恒温器家庭的独特数据集，我们发现采用 TOU 费率会导致高峰期空调使用量大幅下降，从而使节约的能源集中在最热、需求量最大的日子，而此时节约能源的效益最大。

引用次数: 0

Transmission of flood damage to the real economy and financial intermediation: Simulation analysis using a DSGE model 洪水灾害对实体经济和金融中介的影响：利用 DSGE 模型进行模拟分析

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103058

Ryuichiro Hashimoto , Nao Sudo

We assess physical risk associated with floods in Japan, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We construct a model that incorporates transmission mechanism of floods and estimate the model using the data of flood-induced damage to capital stock and public infrastructure collected by the government in the last 40 years. The result of the analysis is threefold. First, a flood that reduces the private capital stock by about 0.1% as a direct effect causes GDP to fall by about 0.1% in the first period, with a gradual recovery to pre-flood level. Second, floods dampen GDP through multiple channels. From the supply side, a decline in capital stock inputs and total factor productivity (TFP) reduce GDP. From the demand side, the balance sheets of firms and financial intermediaries are impaired, resulting in disruptions to financial intermediation and depressing GDP. Based on our estimates, all these channels are quantitatively comparable in magnitude. Third, the quantitative impacts of flood shocks on GDP up to now have been minor compared to the standard structural shocks that are considered important in existing macroeconomic studies. However, according to the estimates that use the relationship between the key variables in our model together with climate change scenarios published by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the impacts of these shocks could become somewhat larger in the future.

我们利用动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型评估了日本与洪水相关的有形风险。我们构建了一个包含洪水传导机制的模型，并利用政府在过去 40 年中收集的洪水对资本存量和公共基础设施造成的损害数据对模型进行了估算。分析结果有三个方面。首先，洪水直接导致私人资本存量减少约 0.1%，从而导致国内生产总值在第一阶段下降约 0.1%，然后逐渐恢复到洪水前的水平。其次，洪水通过多种渠道抑制国内生产总值。从供给方面看，资本存量投入和全要素生产率（TFP）的下降会降低国内生产总值。从需求方面看，企业和金融中介机构的资产负债表受损，导致金融中介活动中断，从而抑制国内生产总值。根据我们的估计，所有这些渠道在数量上都具有可比性。第三，与现有宏观经济研究中认为重要的标准结构性冲击相比，洪水冲击到目前为止对国内生产总值的定量影响较小。然而，根据绿化金融体系网络（NGFS）发布的利用我们模型中关键变量之间的关系以及气候变化情景的估算，这些冲击的影响在未来可能会变得更大。

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引用次数: 0

Do green parties affect local waste management policies? 绿党是否会影响当地的废物管理政策？

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103056

Augusto Cerqua , Nadia Fiorino , Emma Galli

We explore whether mayors supported by pro-environmental parties enhance local environmental outcomes compared to their non-environmental counterparts. We study close elections within a regression discontinuity design and find a notable rise in recycling rates in Italian municipalities governed by pro-environmental coalitions. This uptick becomes far less pronounced when adopting broader criteria to define green mayoral candidates. Crucially, the enhanced recycling rates are not realized through augmented budgets for environmental initiatives or waste collection, but rather are primarily attributed to the implementation of local policies, such as on-call waste collection and the establishment of waste collection centers.

我们探讨了与非环保党派的市长相比，环保党派支持的市长是否会提高当地的环保成果。我们在回归不连续设计中研究了近距离选举，发现在亲环境联盟治理的意大利城市中，回收率显著上升。如果采用更宽泛的标准来定义绿色市长候选人，这种上升就不那么明显了。重要的是，回收率的提高并不是通过增加环保措施或废物收集的预算实现的，而是主要归功于地方政策的实施，如随叫随到的废物收集和废物收集中心的建立。

引用次数: 0

Rainwater shocks and economic growth: The role of the water cycle partition 雨水冲击与经济增长：水循环分区的作用

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103047

François Bareille , Raja Chakir , Charles Regnacq

This paper improves our understanding of how rainwater impacts economic growth by investigating the effects of overlooked properties of the water cycle. First, we consider the natural separation of rainwater into flows of blue water (i.e., the water that runs off towards rivers) and green water (i.e., that remaining in the soil). Second, we account for the presence of surface and groundwater stocks. These considerations allow us to comprehensively address the whole partition of rainwater, which, upon reaching the ground, splits into distinct water resources that determine water availability inland. Our analyses on a global panel coupling sub-national economic and hydrological data show that rainwater does increase growth, but do so differently depending on its partition. Specifically, blue water leads to more economic growth than green water at the margin, but, because two thirds of terrestrial water is green, the latter contributes more to growth in total. By missing this crucial partition, we find that commonly used rainwater measurements overstate rainwater’s contribution to growth (by about two). Our analyses further indicate that, although groundwater reserves always mitigate the impacts of rainwater reduction on growth, surface water reserves sometimes amplify regional dependence to rainwater (depending on sector, income and reserve types).

本文通过研究被忽视的水循环特性的影响，加深了我们对雨水如何影响经济增长的理解。首先，我们考虑了雨水自然分离为蓝水（即流向河流的水）和绿水（即留在土壤中的水）的情况。其次，我们考虑了地表水和地下水存量的存在。这些考虑因素使我们能够全面解决雨水的整体分区问题，雨水到达地面后会分成不同的水资源，这些水资源决定了内陆地区的供水量。我们对国家以下各级经济和水文数据进行的全球面板耦合分析表明，雨水确实能促进经济增长，但其作用因雨水分区的不同而不同。具体来说，蓝水比绿水在边际上带来更多的经济增长，但由于三分之二的陆地水是绿水，后者对总增长的贡献更大。由于忽略了这一关键的分区，我们发现常用的雨水测量方法高估了雨水对经济增长的贡献（大约高出两倍）。我们的分析进一步表明，虽然地下水储备总是能减轻雨水减少对增长的影响，但地表水储备有时会扩大地区对雨水的依赖（取决于行业、收入和储备类型）。

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引用次数: 0

Environmental protection for bureaucratic promotion: Water quality performance review of provincial governors in China 环境保护促进官僚晋升：中国省长的水质绩效考核

IF 5.5 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103060

Liguo Lin , Wei Sun , Jinhua Zhao

We show including quantitative environmental targets for bureaucratic promotion incentivizes government officials to enforce environmental regulation but at significant economic costs. Taking advantage of the gradual expansion of China's water quality performance review (WQPR) over time and space, we find that WQPR significantly reduced ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants, digestive cancer mortality, and GDP growth rate. WQPR's effects are more pronounced along provincial borders, which are targeted by WQPR, and when provincial governors have more promotion potential. An important mechanism is investment in wastewater treatment facilities. There is evidence that WQPR passed the benefit-cost test, especially in rural areas.

我们的研究表明，在官僚晋升中加入定量环境目标可以激励政府官员执行环境法规，但却要付出巨大的经济成本。利用中国水质绩效考核（WQPR）在时间和空间上的逐步扩大，我们发现 WQPR 显著降低了标准污染物的环境浓度、消化道癌症死亡率和 GDP 增长率。水质绩效考核针对的是省际边界地区，当省长有更大的晋升潜力时，水质绩效考核的效果会更加明显。一个重要的机制是对污水处理设施的投资。有证据表明，WQPR 通过了效益-成本测试，尤其是在农村地区。

引用次数: 0

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