Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103262
Xinming Du , Yu Qin , Yu Xie
This paper examines the impacts of national policies on local policy formulation by studying the interplay between a top-down environmental regulation and the local Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policies. We compiled a database of prefecture-level FDI policies in China spanning four decades and leveraged the Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy that designated some prefectures for pollution abatement. A difference-in-differences analysis shows that the TCZ designated cities formulated more friendly FDI policies after the TCZ policy. Mechanism analyses suggest that local governments loosen FDI regulations to offset economic costs of environmental regulation and attain political promotion.
{"title":"Green regulation, trade friendliness, and local policy adaptation","authors":"Xinming Du , Yu Qin , Yu Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103262","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103262","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impacts of national policies on local policy formulation by studying the interplay between a top-down environmental regulation and the local Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policies. We compiled a database of prefecture-level FDI policies in China spanning four decades and leveraged the Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy that designated some prefectures for pollution abatement. A difference-in-differences analysis shows that the TCZ designated cities formulated more friendly FDI policies after the TCZ policy. Mechanism analyses suggest that local governments loosen FDI regulations to offset economic costs of environmental regulation and attain political promotion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103262"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145577244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days. We use a panel regression framework at the sub-national (i.e., regional) level to identify the effect of extreme heat on economic growth in Latin America accounting for acclimation to the season and to the local climate. Extreme heat affects economic growth directly in addition to any indirect effect through higher seasonal mean temperatures. Extreme heat has a negative and significant impact on economic growth, and the magnitude of the impact increases with the intensity and duration of heat. Our results suggest that the impact of each additional consecutive day of extreme heat is greater than the impact of the prior day. We provide suggestive evidence that agriculture is one channel through which extreme heat impacts economic growth. Extreme heat could account for 34 %–68 % of the total projected reduction in the annual economic growth rate at mid-century due to temperature change. Our results suggest that extreme heat is one potential channel for the documented non-linearity in the impacts of rising mean temperature.
{"title":"The effect of extreme heat on economic growth: Evidence from Latin America","authors":"Juliana Dueñas, Alejandra Goytia, Bridget Hoffmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103241","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days. We use a panel regression framework at the sub-national (i.e., regional) level to identify the effect of extreme heat on economic growth in Latin America accounting for acclimation to the season and to the local climate. Extreme heat affects economic growth directly in addition to any indirect effect through higher seasonal mean temperatures. Extreme heat has a negative and significant impact on economic growth, and the magnitude of the impact increases with the intensity and duration of heat. Our results suggest that the impact of each additional consecutive day of extreme heat is greater than the impact of the prior day. We provide suggestive evidence that agriculture is one channel through which extreme heat impacts economic growth. Extreme heat could account for 34 %–68 % of the total projected reduction in the annual economic growth rate at mid-century due to temperature change. Our results suggest that extreme heat is one potential channel for the documented non-linearity in the impacts of rising mean temperature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103241"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103246
Jonathan E. Hughes
Low prices, limited capacity and increased interest in outdoor recreation contribute to intense competition for public campsites in the United States. Yet, users and park managers report high vacancy rates due to unused reservations or “no-shows.” I develop a simple model for the campground reservation, cancellation and no-show decisions. I numerically simulate pricing policies at a hypothetical but representative park. When capacity constraints are binding, the cancellation fees charged by many parks increase no-shows and decrease consumer surplus. In contrast, modestly higher prices and no-show fees dramatically reduce no-shows and increase social surplus by 8 to 15 percent. However, these policies create different distributional effects. Higher prices raise revenue but decrease consumer surplus and discourage reservations from lower income users when income is positively correlated with trip utility. No-show fees increase consumer surplus and do not materially affect the income distribution of users. The optimal no-show fee, equal to the lost consumer surplus from the marginal no-show, maximizes consumer surplus and increases social surplus by 8.5 percent.
{"title":"Managing no-shows in public resource allocation: The economics of campground reservations","authors":"Jonathan E. Hughes","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low prices, limited capacity and increased interest in outdoor recreation contribute to intense competition for public campsites in the United States. Yet, users and park managers report high vacancy rates due to unused reservations or “no-shows.” I develop a simple model for the campground reservation, cancellation and no-show decisions. I numerically simulate pricing policies at a hypothetical but representative park. When capacity constraints are binding, the cancellation fees charged by many parks increase no-shows and decrease consumer surplus. In contrast, modestly higher prices and no-show fees dramatically reduce no-shows and increase social surplus by 8 to 15 percent. However, these policies create different distributional effects. Higher prices raise revenue but decrease consumer surplus and discourage reservations from lower income users when income is positively correlated with trip utility. No-show fees increase consumer surplus and do not materially affect the income distribution of users. The optimal no-show fee, equal to the lost consumer surplus from the marginal no-show, maximizes consumer surplus and increases social surplus by 8.5 percent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103246"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103245
Peng Shen , Xincheng Wang , Yinxiao Wang , Yucheng Wang , Chu A.(Alex) Yu , Shuhuai Zhang
This study examines the role of charitable giving in mitigating environmental damages. We study donations to the potential victims of air pollution—particularly patients with respiratory diseases—when donors are exposed to varying levels of air pollution. Using unique data from a major online medical crowdfunding platform in China, our empirical design compares the differential impact of air pollution exposure on donations across different disease categories. Our findings indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in ambient PM2.5 exposure leads to a significant 20.8 % increase in donations toward respiratory disease patients relative to non-respiratory disease patients. We further provide evidence that these effects are unlikely to be driven by information exposure to air pollution, consistent with the interpretation that personal experience may play a role, though this mechanism is not directly observed or tested. For respiratory diseases, the charitable contributions induced by air pollution are quantitatively comparable to the additional medical expenses caused by air pollution.
{"title":"Air pollution exposure and donation to its victims: Evidence from online charitable giving","authors":"Peng Shen , Xincheng Wang , Yinxiao Wang , Yucheng Wang , Chu A.(Alex) Yu , Shuhuai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103245","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103245","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the role of charitable giving in mitigating environmental damages. We study donations to the potential victims of air pollution—particularly patients with respiratory diseases—when donors are exposed to varying levels of air pollution. Using unique data from a major online medical crowdfunding platform in China, our empirical design compares the differential impact of air pollution exposure on donations across different disease categories. Our findings indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure leads to a significant 20.8 % increase in donations toward respiratory disease patients relative to non-respiratory disease patients. We further provide evidence that these effects are unlikely to be driven by information exposure to air pollution, consistent with the interpretation that personal experience may play a role, though this mechanism is not directly observed or tested. For respiratory diseases, the charitable contributions induced by air pollution are quantitatively comparable to the additional medical expenses caused by air pollution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103245"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145371445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103259
Erica Myers , Ludovica Gazze , Andrea La Nauze
{"title":"Data, information, and the environment: An introduction to this special issue","authors":"Erica Myers , Ludovica Gazze , Andrea La Nauze","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103259","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103259"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145621166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103255
Liqing Li , R.Aaron Hrozencik , Mani Rouhi Rad , Dilek Uz
Rural populations in the U.S. bear disproportionate energy expenses, with the median energy burden exceeding 9 % of household income in some regions. Two significant current trends, depopulation and climate change, could exacerbate this issue. Depopulation may lead to a significant decline in the customer base for electricity utilities, potentially driving up electricity bills as the non-power costs of maintaining and operating distribution networks are spread across fewer customers. Furthermore, climate change could increase household electric bills by elevating the rural utilities’ operations and maintenance (O&M) costs due to the accelerated depreciation of capital assets and reduced transmission efficiency under high temperatures. This paper examines the impact of changing populations and climate on electricity utilities, leveraging a novel dataset that characterizes the operations of rural electricity cooperatives. We find that increasing temperatures drive up O&M costs in the short-run. Moreover, we find asymmetrical effects of population increases and decreases on revenues collected from residential electric customers in the short term. When a utility’s customer base shrinks, the remaining customers face higher electricity bills as the utility passes on non-power purchasing costs to them. However, in the long-run, utilities adjust their O&M costs, reducing the burden on the remaining customers.
{"title":"The impacts of depopulation and climate change on the cost of rural electric services","authors":"Liqing Li , R.Aaron Hrozencik , Mani Rouhi Rad , Dilek Uz","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural populations in the U.S. bear disproportionate energy expenses, with the median energy burden exceeding 9 % of household income in some regions. Two significant current trends, depopulation and climate change, could exacerbate this issue. Depopulation may lead to a significant decline in the customer base for electricity utilities, potentially driving up electricity bills as the non-power costs of maintaining and operating distribution networks are spread across fewer customers. Furthermore, climate change could increase household electric bills by elevating the rural utilities’ operations and maintenance (O&M) costs due to the accelerated depreciation of capital assets and reduced transmission efficiency under high temperatures. This paper examines the impact of changing populations and climate on electricity utilities, leveraging a novel dataset that characterizes the operations of rural electricity cooperatives. We find that increasing temperatures drive up O&M costs in the short-run. Moreover, we find asymmetrical effects of population increases and decreases on revenues collected from residential electric customers in the short term. When a utility’s customer base shrinks, the remaining customers face higher electricity bills as the utility passes on non-power purchasing costs to them. However, in the long-run, utilities adjust their O&M costs, reducing the burden on the remaining customers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103255"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145577243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103248
Alexander Dangel , Timo Goeschl
This paper studies temporal factors influencing the effectiveness of prosocial appeals used by policy-makers to encourage motorists to voluntarily reduce driving during temporary high pollution episodes. We derive and empirically validate a theoretical framework for repeated multi-day appeals where the desired behavioral response is sensitive to the number of consecutive appeal days and time intervals between appeal events. Our difference-in-differences event study analysis of traffic flows in Stuttgart, Germany shows appeals reduce traffic by about 3 % on the first three appeal days, but effectiveness tapers off during prolonged activation. Moreover, appeals reduce traffic by about 5 % following a lengthy time interval between appeals and are effective once authorities announce when they will be lifted. Our findings confirm prior North American evidence of limited appeal effectiveness in a novel European setting and highlight the relevance of dynamic temporal factors for voluntary short-term pollution mitigation programs.
{"title":"Air quality alerts and don’t drive appeals: Evidence on voluntary pollution mitigation dynamics from Germany","authors":"Alexander Dangel , Timo Goeschl","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies temporal factors influencing the effectiveness of prosocial appeals used by policy-makers to encourage motorists to voluntarily reduce driving during temporary high pollution episodes. We derive and empirically validate a theoretical framework for repeated multi-day appeals where the desired behavioral response is sensitive to the number of consecutive appeal days and time intervals between appeal events. Our difference-in-differences event study analysis of traffic flows in Stuttgart, Germany shows appeals reduce traffic by about 3 % on the first three appeal days, but effectiveness tapers off during prolonged activation. Moreover, appeals reduce traffic by about 5 % following a lengthy time interval between appeals and are effective once authorities announce when they will be lifted. Our findings confirm prior North American evidence of limited appeal effectiveness in a novel European setting and highlight the relevance of dynamic temporal factors for voluntary short-term pollution mitigation programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 103248"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145526343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-09-09DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103199
Man Li
This paper examines the impact of extreme heat on the sectoral reallocation of working-age adult male labor in rural Bangladesh using a three-period panel on individual employment. It shows that high temperatures prompt a labor shift from the non-agricultural to agricultural sectors, primarily into agricultural wage jobs. Variations in employment choices in the agricultural sector depend on household land ownership. Individuals in households with more land tend to engage in crop cultivation, whereas individuals in households with little or no land are more likely to work for wages. Two key channels explain how extreme heat influences employment. First, extreme heat raises demand for hired agricultural labor, especially during busy farming seasons, as labor loss risks crop failure. Second, local demand effects become evident as higher temperatures reduce overall household income, raise food prices, and shift spending towards food, causing the non-agricultural sector to contract.
{"title":"Labor reallocation in the heat: A comprehensive analysis in rural Bangladesh","authors":"Man Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of extreme heat on the sectoral reallocation of working-age adult male labor in rural Bangladesh using a three-period panel on individual employment. It shows that high temperatures prompt a labor shift from the non-agricultural to agricultural sectors, primarily into agricultural wage jobs. Variations in employment choices in the agricultural sector depend on household land ownership. Individuals in households with more land tend to engage in crop cultivation, whereas individuals in households with little or no land are more likely to work for wages. Two key channels explain how extreme heat influences employment. First, extreme heat raises demand for hired agricultural labor, especially during busy farming seasons, as labor loss risks crop failure. Second, local demand effects become evident as higher temperatures reduce overall household income, raise food prices, and shift spending towards food, causing the non-agricultural sector to contract.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 103199"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-10-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103242
Julia Mink
This study estimates the short-term healthcare costs of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in France, where pollution levels are well below current European Union air quality standards. Using administrative data on healthcare expenditure for a representative population sample from 2015 to 2018, combined with high-resolution geospatial data on pollution and meteorological conditions, I implement an instrumental variable strategy that exploits exogenous variation in pollution driven by altitude weather patterns. I find that even moderate increases in PM2.5 significantly raise weekly healthcare costs, with estimated effects two to six times larger than those found in prior studies. Effects are observed across all age groups and in various medical specialties, including cardiology, pulmonology, and neurology. The findings suggest a concave dose-response relationship, with larger marginal effects at lower pollution levels. Aligning pollution concentrations with the WHO’s 2021 guideline could lead to annual savings of €6.44–8.67 billion, which far exceed estimated abatement costs. These results provide a strong economic justification for more ambitious air quality regulations.
{"title":"The healthcare costs of air pollution in France","authors":"Julia Mink","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103242","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103242","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study estimates the short-term healthcare costs of exposure to fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) in France, where pollution levels are well below current European Union air quality standards. Using administrative data on healthcare expenditure for a representative population sample from 2015 to 2018, combined with high-resolution geospatial data on pollution and meteorological conditions, I implement an instrumental variable strategy that exploits exogenous variation in pollution driven by altitude weather patterns. I find that even moderate increases in PM<sub>2.5</sub> significantly raise weekly healthcare costs, with estimated effects two to six times larger than those found in prior studies. Effects are observed across all age groups and in various medical specialties, including cardiology, pulmonology, and neurology. The findings suggest a concave dose-response relationship, with larger marginal effects at lower pollution levels. Aligning pollution concentrations with the WHO’s 2021 guideline could lead to annual savings of €6.44–8.67 billion, which far exceed estimated abatement costs. These results provide a strong economic justification for more ambitious air quality regulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 103242"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145266139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01Epub Date: 2025-08-21DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103220
Vincent Thivierge
Pricing the carbon content of imports, or carbon tariffs, is being considered as a solution to policy-induced carbon leakage. However, the unilateral implementation of carbon tariffs could have unintended consequences, such as further emissions reshuffling or costly trade retaliation. This is particularly the case as proposed carbon tariffs will target emissions from upstream products. This paper estimates how upstream carbon tariffs will affect carbon leakage by exploiting variation in export tariffs. Using a two-country model, I first show that an upstream carbon tariff can lead to emissions leakage down the supply chain. Empirically, I estimate the upstream and downstream foreign emissions effects of export tariffs using plausibly exogenous increases in export tariffs during the 2018–2019 trade war for US manufacturing facilities, while controlling for other tariff changes. While I find evidence that US greenhouse gas emitting facilities respond to export tariffs on their outputs by reducing their emissions, I also find evidence of increased emissions from downstream facilities through input–output linkages. In the case of the US manufacturing industries that faced export tariff increases during the trade war, emissions increases from input users could offset the emissions reductions from facilities in upstream targeted industries. Results in this paper highlight the importance of input–output linkages for the net emissions effect of incomplete carbon tariffs.
{"title":"Downstream carbon leakage from upstream carbon tariffs: Evidence from trade tariffs","authors":"Vincent Thivierge","doi":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pricing the carbon content of imports, or <em>carbon tariffs</em>, is being considered as a solution to policy-induced carbon leakage. However, the unilateral implementation of carbon tariffs could have unintended consequences, such as further emissions reshuffling or costly trade retaliation. This is particularly the case as proposed carbon tariffs will target emissions from upstream products. This paper estimates how upstream carbon tariffs will affect carbon leakage by exploiting variation in export tariffs. Using a two-country model, I first show that an upstream carbon tariff can lead to emissions leakage down the supply chain. Empirically, I estimate the upstream and downstream foreign emissions effects of export tariffs using plausibly exogenous increases in export tariffs during the 2018–2019 trade war for US manufacturing facilities, while controlling for other tariff changes. While I find evidence that US greenhouse gas emitting facilities respond to export tariffs on their outputs by reducing their emissions, I also find evidence of increased emissions from downstream facilities through input–output linkages. In the case of the US manufacturing industries that faced export tariff increases during the trade war, emissions increases from input users could offset the emissions reductions from facilities in upstream targeted industries. Results in this paper highlight the importance of input–output linkages for the net emissions effect of incomplete carbon tariffs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Management","volume":"134 ","pages":"Article 103220"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144926792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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