Qingying Shu, Rebecca Killick, A. Leeson, C. Nemeth, X. Fettweis, A. Hogg, David Leslie
Over half of the recent mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet, and its associated contribution to global sea level rise, can be attributed to increased surface meltwater runoff, with the remainder a result of dynamical processes such as calving and ice discharge. It is therefore important to quantify the distribution of melting on the ice sheet if we are to adequately understand past ice sheet change and make predictions for the future. In this article, we present a novel semi-empirical approach for characterising ice sheet surface conditions using high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter data from the Sentinel-1 satellite. We apply a state-space model to nine sites within North-East Greenland to identify changes in SAR backscatter, and we attribute these to different surface types with reference to optical satellite imagery and meteorological data. A set of decision-making rules for labelling ice sheet melting states are determined based on this analysis and subsequently applied to previously unseen sites. We show that our method performs well in (1) recognising some of the ice sheet surface types such as snow and dark ice and (2) determining whether the surface is melting or not melting. Sentinel-1 SAR data are of high spatial resolution; thus, in developing a method to identify the state of the surface from these data, we improve our capability to understand the variation of ice sheet melting across time and space.
{"title":"Characterising the ice sheet surface in Northeast Greenland using Sentinel-1 SAR data","authors":"Qingying Shu, Rebecca Killick, A. Leeson, C. Nemeth, X. Fettweis, A. Hogg, David Leslie","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.64","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.64","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Over half of the recent mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet, and its associated contribution to global sea level rise, can be attributed to increased surface meltwater runoff, with the remainder a result of dynamical processes such as calving and ice discharge. It is therefore important to quantify the distribution of melting on the ice sheet if we are to adequately understand past ice sheet change and make predictions for the future. In this article, we present a novel semi-empirical approach for characterising ice sheet surface conditions using high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter data from the Sentinel-1 satellite. We apply a state-space model to nine sites within North-East Greenland to identify changes in SAR backscatter, and we attribute these to different surface types with reference to optical satellite imagery and meteorological data. A set of decision-making rules for labelling ice sheet melting states are determined based on this analysis and subsequently applied to previously unseen sites. We show that our method performs well in (1) recognising some of the ice sheet surface types such as snow and dark ice and (2) determining whether the surface is melting or not melting. Sentinel-1 SAR data are of high spatial resolution; thus, in developing a method to identify the state of the surface from these data, we improve our capability to understand the variation of ice sheet melting across time and space.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45804716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Glaciers in the Russian High Arctic have undergone accelerated mass loss due to atmospheric and oceanic warming in the Barents–Kara Sea region. Most studies have concentrated on the western Barents–Kara sector, despite evidence of accelerating mass loss as far east as Severnaya Zemlya. However, long-term trends in glacier change on Severnaya Zemlya are largely unknown and this record may be complicated by surge-type glaciers. Here, we present a long-term assessment of glacier change (1965–2021) on Severnaya Zemlya and a new inventory of surge-type glaciers using declassified spy-satellite photography (KH-7/9 Hexagon) and optical satellite imagery (ASTER, Sentinel-2A, Landsat-4/5 TM and 8 OLI). Glacier area reduced from 17 053 km2 in 1965 to 16 275 in 2021 (−5%; mean: −18%, max: −100%), with areal shrinkage most pronounced at land-terminating glaciers on southern Severnaya Zemlya, where there is a recent (post-2010s) increase in summer atmospheric temperatures. We find that surging may be more widespread than previously thought, with three glaciers classified confirmed as surge-type, eight as likely to have surged and nine as possible, comprising 11% of Severnaya Zemlya's 190 glaciers (37% by area). Under continued warming, we anticipate accelerated retreat and increased likelihood of surging as basal thermal regimes shift.
{"title":"Remote sensing of glacier change (1965–2021) and identification of surge-type glaciers on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic","authors":"Holly Wytiahlowsky, C. Stokes, D. Evans","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.60","url":null,"abstract":"Glaciers in the Russian High Arctic have undergone accelerated mass loss due to atmospheric and oceanic warming in the Barents–Kara Sea region. Most studies have concentrated on the western Barents–Kara sector, despite evidence of accelerating mass loss as far east as Severnaya Zemlya. However, long-term trends in glacier change on Severnaya Zemlya are largely unknown and this record may be complicated by surge-type glaciers. Here, we present a long-term assessment of glacier change (1965–2021) on Severnaya Zemlya and a new inventory of surge-type glaciers using declassified spy-satellite photography (KH-7/9 Hexagon) and optical satellite imagery (ASTER, Sentinel-2A, Landsat-4/5 TM and 8 OLI). Glacier area reduced from 17 053 km2 in 1965 to 16 275 in 2021 (−5%; mean: −18%, max: −100%), with areal shrinkage most pronounced at land-terminating glaciers on southern Severnaya Zemlya, where there is a recent (post-2010s) increase in summer atmospheric temperatures. We find that surging may be more widespread than previously thought, with three glaciers classified confirmed as surge-type, eight as likely to have surged and nine as possible, comprising 11% of Severnaya Zemlya's 190 glaciers (37% by area). Under continued warming, we anticipate accelerated retreat and increased likelihood of surging as basal thermal regimes shift.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48841085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To investigate the mechanisms driving recent changes in outlet glaciers in Antarctica, we measured the glacier front position, flow velocity and surface elevation of five outlet glaciers flowing into Lützow-Holm Bay in East Antarctica. After a steady advance from 2008 to 2015, all the glaciers synchronously retreated by 0.4–6.0 km between 2016 and 2018. The initiation of the retreat coincided with the breakup of land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay in 2016, which resulted in the largest sea-ice loss in the region since 1998. Similar flow variations and surface elevation changes were observed near the grounding line of Shirase, Skallen and Telen glaciers. The slowdown in 2011–15 (by 13%) and the speedup in 2016–18 (by 7%) coincided with the respective increase and decrease in surface elevation. Simultaneous retreat and acceleration after the land-fast sea-ice breakup implies that sea ice has a significant influence on glacier dynamics. Thickening/thinning observed near the grounding line was attributed to a reduced/enhanced stretching flow regime during the deceleration/acceleration period. Our results demonstrate that land-fast sea ice affects not only terminus positions, but also the flow speed and ice thickness of the Antarctic glaciers.
{"title":"Calving, ice flow, and thickness of outlet glaciers controlled by land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica","authors":"Ken Kondo, S. Sugiyama","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.59","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 To investigate the mechanisms driving recent changes in outlet glaciers in Antarctica, we measured the glacier front position, flow velocity and surface elevation of five outlet glaciers flowing into Lützow-Holm Bay in East Antarctica. After a steady advance from 2008 to 2015, all the glaciers synchronously retreated by 0.4–6.0 km between 2016 and 2018. The initiation of the retreat coincided with the breakup of land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay in 2016, which resulted in the largest sea-ice loss in the region since 1998. Similar flow variations and surface elevation changes were observed near the grounding line of Shirase, Skallen and Telen glaciers. The slowdown in 2011–15 (by 13%) and the speedup in 2016–18 (by 7%) coincided with the respective increase and decrease in surface elevation. Simultaneous retreat and acceleration after the land-fast sea-ice breakup implies that sea ice has a significant influence on glacier dynamics. Thickening/thinning observed near the grounding line was attributed to a reduced/enhanced stretching flow regime during the deceleration/acceleration period. Our results demonstrate that land-fast sea ice affects not only terminus positions, but also the flow speed and ice thickness of the Antarctic glaciers.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48231587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Bevan, S. Cornford, Lin Gilbert, Inès N. Otosaka, Daniel F. Martin, Trystan Surawy-Stepney
Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.
{"title":"Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change","authors":"S. Bevan, S. Cornford, Lin Gilbert, Inès N. Otosaka, Daniel F. Martin, Trystan Surawy-Stepney","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.57","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43435829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Ward Hunt and Milne ice shelves are the present-day remnants of a much larger ice shelf that once fringed the coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada. These ice shelves possess a unique surface morphology consisting of wave-like rolls that run parallel to the shoreline. Setting aside the question of how these rolls originally developed, we consider the impact of this roll morphology on the stability of the ice shelf. In particular, we examine whether periodic variations in ice-shelf thickness and water depth implied by the rolls prevent the excitation of Lamb waves in the ice shelf. Using a hierarchy of numerical models, we find that there are band gaps in the flexural and extensional modes of the ice shelf, implying the existence of frequency ranges that lack wave motion. We show that an ice shelf with rolls is able to reflect waves in these frequency ranges that are incident upon its ice front, thereby mitigating undue stress and calving. We speculate that the roll morphology provides a “fitness” for survival that explains why rolls are observed in the oldest and thickest multiyear sea ice of the Arctic.
{"title":"Ocean wave blocking by periodic surface rolls fortifies Arctic ice shelves","authors":"Peter Nekrasov, D. Macayeal","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.58","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The Ward Hunt and Milne ice shelves are the present-day remnants of a much larger ice shelf that once fringed the coast of Ellesmere Island, Canada. These ice shelves possess a unique surface morphology consisting of wave-like rolls that run parallel to the shoreline. Setting aside the question of how these rolls originally developed, we consider the impact of this roll morphology on the stability of the ice shelf. In particular, we examine whether periodic variations in ice-shelf thickness and water depth implied by the rolls prevent the excitation of Lamb waves in the ice shelf. Using a hierarchy of numerical models, we find that there are band gaps in the flexural and extensional modes of the ice shelf, implying the existence of frequency ranges that lack wave motion. We show that an ice shelf with rolls is able to reflect waves in these frequency ranges that are incident upon its ice front, thereby mitigating undue stress and calving. We speculate that the roll morphology provides a “fitness” for survival that explains why rolls are observed in the oldest and thickest multiyear sea ice of the Arctic.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48583001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Enderlin, C. Moffat, Emily E. Miller, Adam Dickson, Caitlin Oliver, Mariama C. Dryák-Vallies, Rainey Aberle
Changes in iceberg calving fluxes and oceanographic conditions around Antarctica have likely influenced the spatial and temporal distribution of iceberg fresh water fluxes to the surrounding ocean basins. However, Antarctic iceberg melt rate estimates have been limited to very large icebergs in the open ocean. Here we use a remote-sensing approach to estimate iceberg melt rates from 2011 to 2022 for 15 study sites around Antarctica. Melt rates generally increase with iceberg draft and follow large-scale variations in ocean temperature: maximum melt rates for the western peninsula, western ice sheet, eastern ice sheet and eastern peninsula are ~50, ~40, ~5 and ~5 m a−1, respectively. Iceberg melt sensitivity to thermal forcing varies widely, with a best-estimate increase in melting of ~24 m a−1°C−1 and range from near-zero to ~100 m a−1°C−1. Variations in water shear likely contribute to the apparent spread in thermal forcing sensitivity across sites. Although the sensitivity of iceberg melt rates to water shear prevents the use of melt rates as a proxy to infer coastal water mass temperature variability, additional coastal iceberg melt observations will likely improve models of Southern Ocean fresh water fluxes and have potential for subglacial discharge plume mapping.
南极洲周围冰山崩解通量和海洋学条件的变化可能影响了冰山向周围海洋盆地淡水通量的时空分布。然而，对南极冰山融化速度的估计仅限于公海上非常大的冰山。在这里，我们使用遥感方法估算了2011年至2022年南极洲周围15个研究地点的冰山融化速度。融化速率一般随冰山下沉而增加，并随海洋温度的大尺度变化而增加:西部半岛、西部冰盖、东部冰盖和东部半岛的最大融化速率分别为~50、~40、~5和~5 ma−1。冰山融化对热强迫的敏感性变化很大，最好的估计是融化增加~24 ma - 1°C - 1，范围从接近零到~100 ma - 1°C - 1。水切变的变化可能有助于热强迫敏感性在不同地点的明显扩散。尽管冰山融化速率对水切变的敏感性阻碍了使用融化速率作为推断沿海水团温度变化的代理，但额外的沿海冰山融化观测可能会改进南大洋淡水通量模型，并有可能进行冰下排放羽流测绘。
{"title":"Antarctic iceberg melt rate variability and sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing","authors":"E. Enderlin, C. Moffat, Emily E. Miller, Adam Dickson, Caitlin Oliver, Mariama C. Dryák-Vallies, Rainey Aberle","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.54","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.54","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Changes in iceberg calving fluxes and oceanographic conditions around Antarctica have likely influenced the spatial and temporal distribution of iceberg fresh water fluxes to the surrounding ocean basins. However, Antarctic iceberg melt rate estimates have been limited to very large icebergs in the open ocean. Here we use a remote-sensing approach to estimate iceberg melt rates from 2011 to 2022 for 15 study sites around Antarctica. Melt rates generally increase with iceberg draft and follow large-scale variations in ocean temperature: maximum melt rates for the western peninsula, western ice sheet, eastern ice sheet and eastern peninsula are ~50, ~40, ~5 and ~5 m a−1, respectively. Iceberg melt sensitivity to thermal forcing varies widely, with a best-estimate increase in melting of ~24 m a−1°C−1 and range from near-zero to ~100 m a−1°C−1. Variations in water shear likely contribute to the apparent spread in thermal forcing sensitivity across sites. Although the sensitivity of iceberg melt rates to water shear prevents the use of melt rates as a proxy to infer coastal water mass temperature variability, additional coastal iceberg melt observations will likely improve models of Southern Ocean fresh water fluxes and have potential for subglacial discharge plume mapping.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47849413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Talalay, D. Gong, Xiaopeng Fan, Yazhou Li, G. Leitchenkov, B. Li, Nan Zhang, Rusheng Wang, Yang Yang, Jialin Hong
A 198.8 m deep borehole was drilled through ice to subglacial bedrock in the northwestern marginal part of Princess Elizabeth Land, ~12 km south of Zhongshan Station, in January–February 2019. Three years later, in February 2022, the borehole temperature profile was measured, and the geothermal heat flow (GHF) was estimated using a 1-D time-dependent energy-balance equation. For a depth corresponding to the base of the ice sheet, the GHF was calculated as 72.6 ± 2.3 mW m−2 and temperature −4.53 ± 0.27°C. The regional averages estimated for this area based, generally, on tectonic setting vary from 55 to 66 mW m−2. A higher GHF is interpreted to originate mostly from the occurrence of metamorphic complexes intruded by heat-producing elements in the subglacial bedrock below the drill site.
{"title":"Geothermal heat flow from borehole measurements at the margin of Princess Elizabeth Land (East Antarctic Ice Sheet)","authors":"P. Talalay, D. Gong, Xiaopeng Fan, Yazhou Li, G. Leitchenkov, B. Li, Nan Zhang, Rusheng Wang, Yang Yang, Jialin Hong","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.43","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A 198.8 m deep borehole was drilled through ice to subglacial bedrock in the northwestern marginal part of Princess Elizabeth Land, ~12 km south of Zhongshan Station, in January–February 2019. Three years later, in February 2022, the borehole temperature profile was measured, and the geothermal heat flow (GHF) was estimated using a 1-D time-dependent energy-balance equation. For a depth corresponding to the base of the ice sheet, the GHF was calculated as 72.6 ± 2.3 mW m−2 and temperature −4.53 ± 0.27°C. The regional averages estimated for this area based, generally, on tectonic setting vary from 55 to 66 mW m−2. A higher GHF is interpreted to originate mostly from the occurrence of metamorphic complexes intruded by heat-producing elements in the subglacial bedrock below the drill site.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42955850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimates of ice shelf mass loss are typically based on surface height measurements, assuming hydrostatic equilibrium and estimated firn thickness. Recent investigations, however, challenge the assumption that ice shelves are freely floating, particularly in proximity to narrow structures such as basal channels and shear margins. We compare contemporaneous measurements of Antarctic ice shelf thickness, from ice-penetrating radar, to freeboard height, from laser altimetry, acquired during multiple airborne surveys. On average, the hydrostatic thickness differs from observed thickness by at least ~17 ± 98 m, but this difference varies well beyond the propagated error within and among ice shelves, and depends on the corrections applied. We find that uncertainty in firn thickness can account for most, but not all, of the imbalance. Overall, errors in hydrostatic thickness do not significantly impact estimated basal melt rates. Our results indicate that localized approaches to estimating ice shelf thickness and rates of change are not applicable at large scales, and vice versa, and point to the need for more abundant and accurate firn and ice thickness measurements to improve estimates and predictions of ice shelf mass loss.
{"title":"A comparison of contemporaneous airborne altimetry and ice-thickness measurements of Antarctic ice shelves","authors":"Allison M. Chartrand, I. Howat","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.49","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Estimates of ice shelf mass loss are typically based on surface height measurements, assuming hydrostatic equilibrium and estimated firn thickness. Recent investigations, however, challenge the assumption that ice shelves are freely floating, particularly in proximity to narrow structures such as basal channels and shear margins. We compare contemporaneous measurements of Antarctic ice shelf thickness, from ice-penetrating radar, to freeboard height, from laser altimetry, acquired during multiple airborne surveys. On average, the hydrostatic thickness differs from observed thickness by at least ~17 ± 98 m, but this difference varies well beyond the propagated error within and among ice shelves, and depends on the corrections applied. We find that uncertainty in firn thickness can account for most, but not all, of the imbalance. Overall, errors in hydrostatic thickness do not significantly impact estimated basal melt rates. Our results indicate that localized approaches to estimating ice shelf thickness and rates of change are not applicable at large scales, and vice versa, and point to the need for more abundant and accurate firn and ice thickness measurements to improve estimates and predictions of ice shelf mass loss.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43532270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Helen Ockenden, R. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, D. Goldberg
One of the largest contributors to uncertainty in predictions of sea-level rise from ice-sheet models is a lack of knowledge about the bed topography beneath ice sheets. Bed topography maps are normally made by interpolating between linear radar surveys using methods that include kriging, mass conservation and flowline diffusion, all of which may miss influential mesoscale (2–30 km) bedforms. Previous works have explored an Ice-Flow Perturbation Analysis (IFPA) approach for estimating bed topography using the surface expression of these mesoscale bedforms. Using regions of Pine Island Glacier that have been intensively surveyed by ice-penetrating radar as test sites, and a refined IFPA methodology, we find that IFPA detects bedforms capable of influencing ice flow which are not represented in Bedmachine Antarctica and other interpolated bed products. We further explore the ability of IFPA to estimate relative bed slipperiness, finding higher slipperiness in the main trunk and tributaries. Alongside other methods which estimate ice thickness, bed topography maps from IFPA have the potential to constrain projections of future sea-level rise, especially where radar data are sparse.
{"title":"Ice-flow perturbation analysis: a method to estimate ice-sheet bed topography and conditions from surface datasets","authors":"Helen Ockenden, R. Bingham, Andrew Curtis, D. Goldberg","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.50","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 One of the largest contributors to uncertainty in predictions of sea-level rise from ice-sheet models is a lack of knowledge about the bed topography beneath ice sheets. Bed topography maps are normally made by interpolating between linear radar surveys using methods that include kriging, mass conservation and flowline diffusion, all of which may miss influential mesoscale (2–30 km) bedforms. Previous works have explored an Ice-Flow Perturbation Analysis (IFPA) approach for estimating bed topography using the surface expression of these mesoscale bedforms. Using regions of Pine Island Glacier that have been intensively surveyed by ice-penetrating radar as test sites, and a refined IFPA methodology, we find that IFPA detects bedforms capable of influencing ice flow which are not represented in Bedmachine Antarctica and other interpolated bed products. We further explore the ability of IFPA to estimate relative bed slipperiness, finding higher slipperiness in the main trunk and tributaries. Alongside other methods which estimate ice thickness, bed topography maps from IFPA have the potential to constrain projections of future sea-level rise, especially where radar data are sparse.","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41526673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"JOG volume 69 issue 276 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/jog.2023.56","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.56","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42287508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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