Erik Schwarz, Elsa Abs, Arjun Chakrawal, Luciana Chavez Rodriguez, Pierre Quévreux, Stefano Manzoni
Soil microorganisms mediate carbon and nutrient fluxes in soils, and—as all organisms—are subject to eco-evolutionary dynamics. Adaptation of soil microbial functionality to environmental conditions across space and time has consequences for biogeochemical fluxes that are often not explicitly considered in models describing soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. Eco-evolutionary optimization (EEO) tries to anticipate the outcome of eco-evolutionary dynamics, and can inform on how microbial functional traits might adapt to environmental conditions based on the maximisation of different proxies of microbial fitness. While different approaches employ different fitness proxies, they all aim to increase realism and generality by grounding SOM models in eco-evolutionary theory and introducing constraints on model parametrization. Despite this potential, challenges for widely applying EEO approaches to advance SOM models persist and open questions remain, primarily concerning implicit assumptions, convergence of predictions, and empirical validation of the different EEO approaches. In this Synthesis, we review EEO approaches that have been applied to SOM models and provide an instructive primer to EEO approaches. We then propose a general categorization, aiming to make their underlying assumptions explicit and give an outlook for future research directions.
{"title":"Eco-Evolutionary Optimality in Soil Organic Matter Models","authors":"Erik Schwarz, Elsa Abs, Arjun Chakrawal, Luciana Chavez Rodriguez, Pierre Quévreux, Stefano Manzoni","doi":"10.1111/ele.70278","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ele.70278","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil microorganisms mediate carbon and nutrient fluxes in soils, and—as all organisms—are subject to eco-evolutionary dynamics. Adaptation of soil microbial functionality to environmental conditions across space and time has consequences for biogeochemical fluxes that are often not explicitly considered in models describing soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. Eco-evolutionary optimization (EEO) tries to anticipate the outcome of eco-evolutionary dynamics, and can inform on how microbial functional traits might adapt to environmental conditions based on the maximisation of different proxies of microbial fitness. While different approaches employ different fitness proxies, they all aim to increase realism and generality by grounding SOM models in eco-evolutionary theory and introducing constraints on model parametrization. Despite this potential, challenges for widely applying EEO approaches to advance SOM models persist and open questions remain, primarily concerning implicit assumptions, convergence of predictions, and empirical validation of the different EEO approaches. In this Synthesis, we review EEO approaches that have been applied to SOM models and provide an instructive primer to EEO approaches. We then propose a general categorization, aiming to make their underlying assumptions explicit and give an outlook for future research directions.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70278","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jennifer L. Williams, Amy L. Angert, Aldo Compagnoni, Ali Campbell, Megan L. DeMarche, Margaret E. K. Evans, Joshua C. Fowler, Edgar J. González, Amy M. Iler, Jenna A. Loesberg, Allison M. Louthan, Alexandra B. Martin, Jacob K. Moutouama, Scott W. Nordstrom, William K. Petry, Bilgecan Şen, Seema N. Sheth, Tom E. X. Miller
Predicting the effects of climate change on plant and animal populations is an urgent challenge for understanding the fate of biodiversity under global change. At the surface, quantifying how climate drives the vital rates that underlie population dynamics appears simple, yet many decisions are required to connect climate to demographic data. Competing approaches have emerged in the literature with little consensus around best practices. Here we provide a practical guide for how to best link vital rates to climate for the purposes of inference and projection of population dynamics. We first describe the sources of demographic and climate data underlying population models. We then focus on best practices to model the relationships between vital rates and climate, highlighting what we can learn from mechanistic and phenomenological models. Finally, we discuss the challenges of prediction and forecasting in the face of uncertainty about climate-demographic relationships as well as future climate. We conclude by suggesting ways forward to build this field of research into one that makes robust forecasts of population persistence, with opportunities for synthesis across species.
{"title":"Linking Climate and Demography to Predict Population Dynamics and Persistence Under Global Change","authors":"Jennifer L. Williams, Amy L. Angert, Aldo Compagnoni, Ali Campbell, Megan L. DeMarche, Margaret E. K. Evans, Joshua C. Fowler, Edgar J. González, Amy M. Iler, Jenna A. Loesberg, Allison M. Louthan, Alexandra B. Martin, Jacob K. Moutouama, Scott W. Nordstrom, William K. Petry, Bilgecan Şen, Seema N. Sheth, Tom E. X. Miller","doi":"10.1111/ele.70283","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ele.70283","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Predicting the effects of climate change on plant and animal populations is an urgent challenge for understanding the fate of biodiversity under global change. At the surface, quantifying how climate drives the vital rates that underlie population dynamics appears simple, yet many decisions are required to connect climate to demographic data. Competing approaches have emerged in the literature with little consensus around best practices. Here we provide a practical guide for how to best link vital rates to climate for the purposes of inference and projection of population dynamics. We first describe the sources of demographic and climate data underlying population models. We then focus on best practices to model the relationships between vital rates and climate, highlighting what we can learn from mechanistic and phenomenological models. Finally, we discuss the challenges of prediction and forecasting in the face of uncertainty about climate-demographic relationships as well as future climate. We conclude by suggesting ways forward to build this field of research into one that makes robust forecasts of population persistence, with opportunities for synthesis across species.</p>","PeriodicalId":161,"journal":{"name":"Ecology Letters","volume":"28 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ele.70283","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145759524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}