Ecology Letters最新文献

Quantifying temporal changes in species occurrence has been a key part of ecology since its inception. We quantified multidecadal site occupancy trajectories for 18 bird species in four independent long-term, large-scale studies (571 sites, ~1000 km latitude) in Australia. We found evidence of a year × long-term study interaction in the best-fitting models for 14 of the 18 species analysed, with differences in the temporal trajectories of the same species in multiple studies consistent with non-stationarity. Non-stationarity patterns in occupancy were not related to the distance from a species niche centroid; species in locations further from their niche centroid did not demonstrate differing temporal trajectories to those closer to their niche centroid. Furthermore, temporal trajectories of species were not associated with climatic values for each study relative to their niche. Our findings demonstrate the need for multiple long-term studies across a species range, especially when tailoring conservation decisions for populations.

It has recently been recognised that populations are rarely in demographic equilibrium, but rather in a ‘transient’ state. To examine how transient dynamics influence our empirical understanding of the links between changes in demographic rates and population growth, we conducted a 32-year study of Columbian ground squirrels. The population increased rapidly for 10 years, followed by a 2-year crash, and a gradual 19-year recovery. Transient life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis showed that demographic stochasticity accounted for approximately one-fourth of the variation in population growth, leaving the majority to be explained by environmental influences. These relatively small rodents appeared to have a slow pace of life. But unlike the general pattern for large mammals with slow life histories, ground squirrel survival did not exhibit low variation associated with environmental ‘buffering’; instead, survival varied substantially over time and contributed substantially (78%) to changes in abundance over the long-term study, with minor contributions from reproduction and unstable stage structure.

Interactions between species pose considerable challenges for forecasting the response of ecological communities to global changes. Coexistence theory could address this challenge by defining the conditions species can or cannot persist alongside competitors. However, although coexistence theory is increasingly deployed for projections, these frameworks have rarely been subjected to critical multigenerational validation tests. Here, using a highly replicated mesocosm experiment, I directly test if the modern coexistence theory approach can predict time-to-extirpation in the face of rising temperatures within the context of competition from a heat-tolerant species. Competition hastened expiration and the modelled point of coexistence breakdown overlapped with mean observations under both steady temperature increases and with additional environmental stochasticity. That said, although the theory identified the interactive effect between the stressors, predictive precision was low even in this simplified system. Nonetheless, these results support the careful use of coexistence modelling for forecasts and understanding drivers of change.

In socially monogamous species, sexual selection not only depends on initial mate choice but also mate switching. To date, studies lack assessment of (1) differences between passive (widowhood) and active (divorce) mate switching, (2) longer term fitness consequences (beyond the season post-divorce) and (3) how age masks reproductive costs and benefits of divorce. We investigated causes and short- and long-term consequences of mate switching and their age dependence using longitudinal data on Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis). Young and old males, but not females, divorced most frequently. Divorce propensity declined with pair-bond duration and reproductive success in both sexes, but mate switching did not incur short-term costs. Divorcees did not gain short- or long-term fitness benefits compared to non-divorcees. Rather, female early-life divorcees that lost their breeding position had lower survival than females that never divorced. Divorce is likely a strategy to escape poor-quality partnerships, but not all divorcees benefit from divorcing.

Climate change can influence populations of monogamous species by affecting pair-bond dynamics. This study examined the impact of climate on widowhood and divorce, and the subsequent effects on individual vital rates and life-history outcomes over 54 years in a snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) population. We found that environmental conditions can affect pair-bond dynamics both directly and indirectly. Divorce was adaptive, occurring more frequently after breeding failure and leading to improved breeding success. Divorce probabilities also increased under severe climatic conditions, regardless of prior breeding success, supporting the ‘Habitat-mediated’ mechanisms. Overall, pair-bond disruptions reduced subsequent vital rates and lifetime outcomes. Climate forecasts from an Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model projected increased male widowhood rates due to decreased sea ice negatively affecting female survival, despite considerable uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of environmentally induced changes in demographic and pair-bond disruption rates as crucial factors shaping demographic responses to climate change.

Climate change is shifting the timing of organismal life-history events. Although consequential food-web mismatches can emerge if predators and prey shift at different rates, research on phenological shifts has traditionally focused on single trophic levels. Here, we analysed >2000 long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish abundance or biomass for the San Francisco, Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays. Phenological shifts occurred in over a quarter (28%) of the combined series across all three estuaries. However, phenological trends for many taxa (ca. 29–68%) did not track the changing environment. While planktonic taxa largely advanced their phenologies, fishes displayed broad patterns of both advanced and delayed timing of peak abundance. Overall, these divergent patterns illustrate the potential for climate-driven trophic mismatches. Our results suggest that even if signatures of global climate change differ locally, widespread phenological change has the potential to disrupt estuarine food webs.

Evolutionary adaptation occurs when individuals vary in access to fitness-relevant resources and these differences in ‘material wealth’ are heritable. It is typically assumed that the inheritance of material wealth reflects heritable variation in the phenotypic abilities needed to acquire material wealth. We scrutinise this assumption by investigating additional mechanisms underlying the inheritance of material wealth in collared flycatchers. A genome-wide association analysis reveals a high genomic heritability (h² = 0.405 ± 0.08) of access to caterpillar larvae, a fitness-relevant resource, in the birds' breeding territories. However, we find little evidence for heritable variation in phenotypic abilities needed to acquire this material wealth. Instead, combined evidence from simulations, experimental and long-term monitoring data indicate that inheritance of material wealth is largely explained by philopatry causing a within-population genetic structure across a heterogeneous landscape. Therefore, allelic variants associated with high material wealth may spread in the population without having causal connections to traits promoting local adaptation.

Theory suggests that animals make hierarchical, multiscale resource selection decisions to address the hierarchy of factors limiting their fitness. Ecologists have developed tools to link population-level resource selection across scales; yet, theoretical expectations about the relationship between coarse- and fine-scale selection decisions at the individual level remain elusive despite their importance to fitness. With GPS-telemetry data collected across California, USA, we evaluated resource selection of mountain lions (Puma concolor; n = 244) relative to spatial variation in human-caused mortality risk. With hierarchical resource selection, coarse-scale selection determines availability at finer scales. This simple relationship allowed us to demonstrate that functional responses in resource selection explicitly link individual-level resource selection decisions across scales. We show that individuals proactively avoiding risk when selecting home ranges are freed to relax this avoidance when making decisions within home ranges. However, individuals also exhibit reactive avoidance of risk at the finest scales along movement paths.

Given that reproductive physiology is highly sensitive to thermal stress, there is increasing concern about the effects of climate change on animal fertility. Even a slight reduction in fertility can have consequences for population growth and survival, so it is critical to better understand and predict the potential effects of climate change on reproductive traits. We synthesised 1894 effect sizes across 276 studies on 241 species to examine thermal effects on fertility in aquatic animals. Our meta-analysis revealed that external fertilisers tend to be more vulnerable to warming than internal fertilisers, especially in freshwater species. We also found that increased temperature is particularly detrimental for gametes and that under certain conditions, female fertility is more sensitive to warming than male fertility, challenging the prevailing view that males are more vulnerable. This work provides valuable new insights into the effects of temperature on fertility, with potential consequences for population viability.