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A Non-Equilibrium Species Distribution Model Reveals Unprecedented Depth of Time Lag Responses to Past Environmental Change Trajectories
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70040
Etienne Lalechère, Ronan Marrec, Jonathan Lenoir

Previous studies have demonstrated legacy effects of current species distributions to past environmental conditions, but the temporal extent of such time lag dynamics remains unknown. Here, we have developed a non-equilibrium Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach quantifying the temporal extent that must be taken into account to capture 95% of the effect that a given time series of past environmental conditions has on the current distribution of a species. We applied this approach on the distribution of 92 European forest birds in response to past trajectories of change in forest cover and climate. We found that non-equilibrium SDMs outperformed traditional SDMs for 95% of the species. Non-equilibrium SDMs suggest unprecedented long-lasting effects of past global changes (average time lag extent ranged from 9 to 231 years). This framework can help to relax the equilibrium hypothesis of traditional SDMs and to improve future predictions of biodiversity redistribution in response to global changes.

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引用次数: 0
Correction to “The importance of neutral over niche processes in structuring Ediacaran early animal communities” 更正“在构造埃迪卡拉纪早期动物群落中中性过程对生态位过程的重要性”
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70048

Mitchell, E. G., Harris, S., Kenchington, C. G., Vixseboxse, P., Roberts, L., Clark, C., Dennis, A., Liu, A. G., & Wilby, P. R. 2019. “ The importance of neutral over niche processes in structuring Ediacaran early animal communities.” Ecology letters 22: 20282038. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13383.

In the above published article, the authors have spotted an error in Table 2: the Mean number in the cluster column is a replicate of the previous column and does not reflect the correct results. The correct version of the table is shown below.

We apologize for this error.

米切尔,E. G.,哈里斯,S.,肯金顿,C. G.,维克斯boxse, P.,罗伯茨,L.,克拉克,C.,丹尼斯,A.,刘,A. G.,等等;威尔比,p.r. 2019。“在构建埃迪卡拉纪早期动物群落中,中性过程比生态位过程的重要性。”生态学报22(2):2028-2038。https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13383。在上述发表的文章中,作者在表2中发现了一个错误:集群列中的平均值是前一列的重复,并没有反映正确的结果。正确的表格版本如下所示。表2。单变量PCF分析汇总表。对于非均匀点过程(HP和ITC),移动窗口半径为0.5 m,使用与被建模分类群相同的分类群密度。模型fitpd值PCFpd值NNSurfaceTaxonnσ100 ρ在集群中的平均值csrhptcitccsrhptcitcbed bcharniodiscus482.9060.00150.0030.0020.8920.0050.190.1170.5960.553 primocandelabrum10621.470.124430.3480.0020.6470.1370.2510.2680.9810.255 charnia6912.0270.294240.0220.2660.9720.2720.20.020.9230.071 bristy covefractofusus76na0.523 na0.3840.1820.1730.1830.4 10.3960.3680.389错误点dfractofusus10674.320.00150.0010.9630.6090.110.2010.670.180.99 pectinifrons108na0.575 na0.2830.3250.9110.3570.0410.3030.3020.039 bradgatia140na0.664na0.44na0.6720.4250.4660.3970.5440.4820.3230.001 charniodiscus3262.1330.01100.0010.1320.4510.1420.0010.0010.0740.001 beothukis766.8410.01140.0010.9630.6090.110.2010.9670.180.199 featherDusters2725.6160.01110.0010.0190.2820.1830.0020.0010.2060.001Thectardis391.8350.0240.0270.4430.9110.0730.4790.4790.6570.458Fractofusus113711.8420.01240.0010.0310.3250.350.0010.0010.9710.001H14Fractofusus38867.9060.001160.0010.0030.560.0040.0010.0010.2250.001St。我们对这个错误深表歉意。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Inference With Observational Data and Unobserved Confounding Variables 用观察数据和未观察到的混杂变量进行因果推断
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70023
Jarrett E. K. Byrnes, Laura E. Dee

Experiments have long been the gold standard for causal inference in Ecology. As Ecology tackles progressively larger problems, however, we are moving beyond the scales at which randomised controlled experiments are feasible. To answer causal questions at scale, we need to also use observational data —something Ecologists tend to view with great scepticism. The major challenge using observational data for causal inference is confounding variables: variables affecting both a causal variable and response of interest. Unmeasured confounders—known or unknown—lead to statistical bias, creating spurious correlations and masking true causal relationships. To combat this omitted variable bias, other disciplines have developed rigorous approaches for causal inference from observational data that flexibly control for broad suites of confounding variables. We show how ecologists can harness some of these methods—causal diagrams to identify confounders coupled with nested sampling and statistical designs—to reduce risks of omitted variable bias. Using an example of estimating warming effects on snails, we show how current methods in Ecology (e.g., mixed models) produce incorrect inferences due to omitted variable bias and how alternative methods can eliminate it, improving causal inferences with weaker assumptions. Our goal is to expand tools for causal inference using observational and imperfect experimental data in Ecology.

长期以来,实验一直是生态学因果推理的黄金标准。然而,随着生态学逐渐解决更大的问题,我们正在超越随机对照实验可行的范围。为了回答大规模的因果关系问题,我们还需要使用观察数据——生态学家倾向于以极大的怀疑态度看待这些数据。使用观测数据进行因果推理的主要挑战是混淆变量:影响因果变量和感兴趣的响应的变量。未测量的混杂因素——已知的或未知的——会导致统计偏差,产生虚假的相关性,掩盖真正的因果关系。为了对抗这种被忽略的变量偏差,其他学科已经开发出严格的方法,从观测数据中进行因果推断,灵活地控制广泛的混杂变量。我们展示了生态学家如何利用其中的一些方法——因果图来识别混杂因素,再加上嵌套抽样和统计设计——来减少遗漏变量偏差的风险。以估算蜗牛的变暖效应为例,我们展示了生态学中目前的方法(如混合模型)如何由于遗漏的变量偏差而产生不正确的推断,以及替代方法如何消除它,用较弱的假设改进因果推断。我们的目标是利用生态学中的观察和不完善的实验数据来扩展因果推理的工具。
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引用次数: 0
A Continuum From Positive to Negative Interactions Drives Plant Species' Performance in a Diverse Community 一个连续的从积极到消极的相互作用驱动植物物种的表现在一个多样化的群落
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70059
Lisa Buche, Lauren G. Shoemaker, Lauren M. Hallett, Ignasi Bartomeus, Peter Vesk, Christopher Weiss-Lehman, Margaret Mayfield, Oscar Godoy

With many species interacting in nature, determining which interactions describe community dynamics is nontrivial. By applying a computational modeling approach to an extensive field survey, we assessed the importance of interactions from plants (both inter- and intra-specific), pollinators and insect herbivores on plant performance (i.e., viable seed production). We compared the inclusion of interaction effects as aggregate guild-level terms versus terms specific to taxonomic groups. We found that a continuum from positive to negative interactions, containing mostly guild-level effects and a few strong taxonomic-specific effects, was sufficient to describe plant performance. While interactions with herbivores and intraspecific plants varied from weakly negative to weakly positive, heterospecific plants mainly promoted competition and pollinators facilitated plants. The consistency of these empirical findings over 3 years suggests that including the guild-level effects and a few taxonomic-specific groups rather than all pairwise and high-order interactions, can be sufficient for accurately describing species variation in plant performance across natural communities.

自然界中有许多物种相互作用,确定哪些相互作用能够描述群落动态并非易事。通过将计算建模方法应用于广泛的野外调查,我们评估了植物(特定物种间和特定物种内)、传粉昆虫和昆虫食草动物之间的相互作用对植物表现(即有活力的种子生产)的重要性。我们比较了将交互作用效应作为行业协会水平的综合项与分类群的特定项。我们发现,从正交互作用到负交互作用的连续统一体(主要包含研究区系层面的效应和少数特定分类群的强烈效应)足以描述植物的表现。虽然与食草动物和种内植物的相互作用从弱消极到弱积极不等,但异种植物主要促进了竞争,而传粉昆虫则为植物提供了便利。三年来这些实证研究结果的一致性表明,包括行会水平效应和少数特定分类群,而不是所有成对和高阶相互作用,足以准确描述自然群落中植物表现的物种差异。
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引用次数: 0
High Capacity for Physiological Plasticity Occurs at a Slow Rate in Ectotherms 高生理可塑性在变温动物中以缓慢的速度发生
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70046
Tim Burton, Sigurd Einum

Phenotypic plasticity enables organisms to express a phenotype that is optimal in their current environment. The ability of organisms to obtain the optimum phenotype is determined by their (i) capacity for plasticity, which facilitates phenotypic adjustment corresponding to the amplitude of environmental change but also their (ii) rate of plasticity, because this determines if the expressed phenotype lags behind changes in the optimum. How the rate of- and capacity for plasticity have co-evolved will thus be critical for the resilience of organisms under different patterns of environmental change. To evaluate the direction of the evolved relationship between plasticity rate and capacity, we reanalysed experiments documenting the time course of thermal tolerance acclimation to temperature change across species of ectothermic animals. We found that the rate and capacity with which thermal tolerance responds plastically to temperature change are negatively correlated, a pattern inconsistent with current theory regarding the evolution of phenotypic plasticity.

表型可塑性使生物体能够表达在当前环境中最优的表型。生物体获得最佳表型的能力取决于它们的(i)可塑性能力,可塑性有助于根据环境变化的幅度进行表型调整,但也取决于它们的(ii)可塑性速率,因为这决定了表达的表型是否滞后于最佳表型的变化。因此,可塑性的速率和能力是如何共同进化的,对于生物体在不同的环境变化模式下的恢复能力至关重要。为了评估塑性率与容量之间的演化方向,我们重新分析了不同物种的热耐受适应温度变化的时间过程。我们发现,热耐受性对温度变化的可塑性响应速率和能力呈负相关,这与目前关于表型可塑性进化的理论不一致。
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引用次数: 0
Foundations and Future Directions for Causal Inference in Ecological Research 生态学研究中因果推理的基础与未来方向
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70053
Katherine Siegel, Laura E. Dee

Ecology often seeks to answer causal questions, and while ecologists have a rich history of experimental approaches, novel observational data streams and the need to apply insights across naturally occurring conditions pose opportunities and challenges. Other fields have developed causal inference approaches that can enhance and expand our ability to answer ecological causal questions using observational or experimental data. However, the lack of comprehensive resources applying causal inference to ecological settings and jargon from multiple disciplines creates barriers. We introduce approaches for causal inference, discussing the main frameworks for counterfactual causal inference, how causal inference differs from other research aims and key challenges; the application of causal inference in experimental and quasi-experimental study designs; appropriate interpretation of the results of causal inference approaches given their assumptions and biases; foundational papers; and the data requirements and trade-offs between internal and external validity posed by different designs. We highlight that these designs generally prioritise internal validity over generalisability. Finally, we identify opportunities and considerations for ecologists to further integrate causal inference with synthesis science and meta-analysis and expand the spatiotemporal scales at which causal inference is possible. We advocate for ecology as a field to collectively define best practices for causal inference.

生态学经常寻求回答因果问题,虽然生态学家在实验方法方面有着丰富的历史,但新的观测数据流和对自然发生条件的见解的应用需求构成了机遇和挑战。其他领域已经发展了因果推理方法,可以增强和扩展我们使用观察或实验数据回答生态因果问题的能力。然而,缺乏将因果推理应用于生态环境的综合资源和多学科术语造成了障碍。我们介绍了因果推理的方法,讨论了反事实因果推理的主要框架,因果推理与其他研究目标和关键挑战的区别;因果推理在实验和准实验研究设计中的应用在假设和偏差的情况下,对因果推理方法的结果进行适当的解释;基本文件;以及不同设计对数据的要求和内外效度的权衡。我们强调这些设计通常优先考虑内部有效性而不是通用性。最后,我们确定了生态学家进一步将因果推理与综合科学和元分析结合起来的机会和考虑因素,并扩大了因果推理的时空尺度。我们提倡生态学作为一个领域,共同定义因果推理的最佳实践。
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引用次数: 0
Trees First Inhibit Then Promote Litter Decomposition in the Subarctic 在亚北极地区,树木先抑制后促进凋落物分解
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70063
Micael Jonsson, Karina E. Clemmensen, Carles Castaño, Thomas C. Parker

Trees affect organic matter decomposition through allocation of recently fixed carbon belowground, but the magnitude and direction of this effect may depend on substrate type and decomposition stage. Here, we followed mass loss, chemical composition and fungal colonisation of leaf and root litters incubated in mountain birch forests over 4 years, in plots where belowground carbon allocation was severed by tree girdling or in control plots. Initially, girdling stimulated leaf and root litter mass loss by 12% and 22%, respectively, suggesting competitive release of saprotrophic decomposition when tree-mediated competition by ectomycorrhizal fungi was eliminated (Gadgil effect). After 4 years, girdling instead hampered mass loss of root litter by 30%, suggesting late-stage priming of decomposition in the presence of trees, in parallel with increased growth of shrubs and associated fungi following tree elimination. Hence, different mechanisms driving early- and late-stage litter decomposition should be considered in climate-feedback evaluations of plant–soil interactions.

树木通过分配地下近期固定碳来影响有机质分解,但这种影响的大小和方向可能取决于基质类型和分解阶段。在这里,我们跟踪了在山地白桦林中培养4年以上的落叶和根凋落物的质量损失、化学成分和真菌定植,这些凋落物分别位于地下碳分配被树木环绕切断的地块或对照地块。最初,环植刺激凋落叶和根分别减少12%和22%的凋落叶质量,这表明当树木介导的外生菌根真菌的竞争被消除时,腐养分解的竞争性释放(Gadgil效应)。4年后,环植反而使凋落物的质量损失减少了30%,这表明在树木存在的情况下,分解的后期启动,与树木消失后灌木和相关真菌的生长增加平行。因此,在植物-土壤相互作用的气候反馈评价中,应考虑驱动凋落物早期和后期分解的不同机制。
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引用次数: 0
Weaker Plant-Frugivore Trait Matching Towards the Tropics and on Islands 热带和岛屿上较弱的植物-果食性性状匹配
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70061
Xiao Huang, Bo Dalsgaard, Si-Chong Chen

Biotic interactions play an important role in species diversification and maintenance and, thus, are regarded as the architecture of biodiversity. Since Darwin and Wallace, biologists have debated whether biotic interactions are stronger towards the tropics and on continents, when compared to temperate regions and islands. Here, based on 354 avian frugivory networks accounting for 22,199 interactions between 1247 bird species and 2126 plant species, we quantified trait matching strength, which reflects interaction strength and specificity, across gradients of latitude and insularity globally. We found that matching between beak size and fruit size was significantly stronger towards the poles and on continents, when compared with the tropics and on islands. As underlining ecological factors, trait matching was stronger with a larger proportion of frugivory (measured as the mean proportion of fruits in bird diets) and network-level mean beak size, and with a smaller proportion of fleshy-fruited species (measured as the proportion of fleshy-fruited plant species in the botanical country where the network was located). These findings suggest that the latitudinal and insular patterns in trait matching are driven by biotic factors that may relate to trait co-evolution between interacting species and optimal foraging for bird species.

生物相互作用在物种多样化和维持中起着重要作用,因此被认为是生物多样性的结构。自达尔文和华莱士以来,生物学家一直在争论,与温带地区和岛屿相比,热带地区和大陆上的生物相互作用是否更强。本文基于354个鸟类frugivory网络(1247种鸟类与2126种植物共22199次相互作用),量化了性状匹配强度,反映了全球不同纬度和岛屿梯度的相互作用强度和特异性。我们发现,与热带和岛屿相比,喙大小和果实大小之间的匹配在两极和大陆上明显更强。作为突出的生态因子,果性(以鸟类食粮中果实的平均比例衡量)和网级平均喙长比例较大,肉质果类(以网络所在植物国肉质果类植物物种比例衡量)比例较小,性状匹配较强。这些发现表明,性状匹配的纬度和岛屿模式是由生物因素驱动的,这些因素可能与相互作用物种之间的性状共同进化和鸟类的最佳觅食有关。
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引用次数: 0
Continuous Abrupt Vegetation Shifts in the Global Terrestrial Ecosystem 全球陆地生态系统中连续的植被突变
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70069
Maohong Wei, Shengpeng Li, Lin Zhu, Xueqiang Lu, Hongyuan Li, Jianfeng Feng

Previous studies have primarily focused on single abrupt shifts; however, the actual ecosystem will experience continuous abrupt shifts (CAS), including different directions shifts (DDS) and same direction shifts (SDS). The patterns and drivers of these CAS remain unclear. We examined the patterns of the DDS and SDS by two vegetation datasets and then tested climate drivers comprising atmospheric temperature (MAT), atmospheric precipitation (MAP), soil temperature (ST) and soil water content (SW); finally, hysteresis effects were examined with reference to principal drivers. The results demonstrate that the DDS and SDS varied across climatic regions. The ST, SW, MAT and MAP were the primary drivers of the DDS, while the MAT and MAP were the primary drivers of the SDS. Furthermore, the presence of hysteresis effects was validated via the DDS. This study presents the widespread occurrence of the CAS and the divergent roles of climate change on the DDS and SDS globally.

以前的研究主要集中在单一的突变;然而,实际生态系统会经历连续的突变(CAS),包括不同方向的变化(DDS)和相同方向的变化(SDS)。这些CAS的模式和驱动因素尚不清楚。利用两组植被数据分析了DDS和SDS的变化规律,并对包括大气温度(MAT)、大气降水(MAP)、土壤温度(ST)和土壤含水量(SW)在内的气候驱动因子进行了分析;最后,结合主要驱动因素分析了磁滞效应。结果表明,不同气候区DDS和SDS存在差异。ST、SW、MAT和MAP是DDS的主要驱动因子,而MAT和MAP是SDS的主要驱动因子。此外,通过DDS验证了磁滞效应的存在。在全球范围内,气候变化对干旱区和干旱区的影响是不同的。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Weather Anomalies and Climate on Plant Disease 天气异常和气候对植物病害的影响
IF 7.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1111/ele.70062
Devin Kirk, Jeremy M. Cohen, Vianda Nguyen, Marissa L. Childs, Johannah E. Farner, T. Jonathan Davies, S. Luke Flory, Jason R. Rohr, Mary I. O'Connor, Erin A. Mordecai

Predicting the effects of climate change on plant disease is critical for protecting ecosystems and food production. Here, we show how disease pressure responds to short-term weather, historical climate and weather anomalies by compiling a global database (4339 plant–disease populations) of disease prevalence in both agricultural and wild plant systems. We hypothesised that weather and climate would play a larger role in disease in wild versus agricultural plant populations, which the results supported. In wild systems, disease prevalence peaked when the temperature was 2.7°C warmer than the historical average for the same time of year. We also found evidence of a negative interactive effect between weather anomalies and climate in wild systems, consistent with the idea that climate maladaptation can be an important driver of disease outbreaks. Temperature and precipitation had relatively little explanatory power in agricultural systems, though we observed a significant positive effect of current temperature. These results indicate that disease pressure in wild plants is sensitive to nonlinear effects of weather, weather anomalies and their interaction with historical climate. In contrast, warmer temperatures drove risks for agricultural plant disease outbreaks within the temperature range examined regardless of historical climate, suggesting vulnerability to ongoing climate change.

预测气候变化对植物病害的影响对于保护生态系统和粮食生产至关重要。在这里,我们通过编译农业和野生植物系统中疾病流行的全球数据库(4339种植物疾病种群),展示了疾病压力如何响应短期天气、历史气候和天气异常。我们假设天气和气候将在野生植物种群与农业植物种群的疾病中发挥更大的作用,结果支持了这一假设。在野生系统中,当气温比历史同期平均温度高2.7℃时,疾病流行率达到峰值。我们还发现了野生系统中天气异常和气候之间负交互作用的证据,这与气候不适应可能是疾病爆发的重要驱动因素的观点一致。温度和降水在农业系统中的解释力相对较小,尽管我们观察到当前温度的显著正影响。这些结果表明,野生植物病害压力对天气、天气异常及其与历史气候的相互作用的非线性效应非常敏感。相比之下,在研究的温度范围内,无论历史气候如何,气温升高都增加了农业植物疾病爆发的风险,这表明对持续气候变化的脆弱性。
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引用次数: 0
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Ecology Letters
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